***Official Week 3 College Football Wagering Thread***

[cribdog 0]

I think the wrong side is favored tonight, taking A&M on the ML, 1 unit

[JetsFan28 0]

Locked in the Over 45 for 2 units. Let's win.

[Yer mom 2]

BetonUSA still at 46. Trying to figure out if it's worth the money I'll lose by taking the under at -130 and then waiting for the number to drop to 44.

 

But I doubt you're taking this bet thinking it will land on exactly 45 or 46 points (much like USC-Neb) so I may just stand pat. Speaking of which, do you have a projection for what you expected the total to be ? I remember you saying you thought the USC-Neb total was going to open around 60.

 

The total is right in the neighborhood that it should be, its back up a point around the boards that ive been looking at. No signs point to a safe play in this game. I like the fact Miamis Offense showed a bit of spark last week, A&Ms D gave up 210 yards in the first half to LM, and Miami has trouble with the triple option. Miami is missing a safety tonight as well. I think we can reach 48+ points in this game, with potential to trade scores in overtime should it happen based on what should be a close game.

 

Good Luck!!

[footballallyear 0]

I layed 3 units at Over 44.5 and it's now up to 45

 

No Worries

 

Score you bitches

[American Chewy 98]

The total is right in the neighborhood that it should be, its back up a point around the boards that ive been looking at. No signs point to a safe play in this game. I like the fact Miamis Offense showed a bit of spark last week, A&Ms D gave up 210 yards in the first half to LM, and Miami has trouble with the triple option. Miami is missing a safety tonight as well. I think we can reach 48+ points in this game, with potential to trade scores in overtime should it happen based on what should be a close game.

 

Good Luck!!

 

yer mom, are you gonna play a side in tonights game?

[rallo 136]

Off the wall play of the week: Take South Carolina AT LSU. Bet the under and hope the gamecocks can score enough to stay close.

 

 

i love this bet as well... the spread is around 17... the ol ball coach should be able to keep it within 2 TDs...

[Guest _my_2_cents_]

i love this bet as well... the spread is around 17... the ol ball coach should be able to keep it within 2 TDs...

 

Exactly my thoughts. I think they can.

[Yer mom 2]

yer mom, are you gonna play a side in tonights game?

 

 

With a gun to my head, id feel safer with a good ground attack team against a team with a struggling offense so id lean on A&M. On the same hand, Miami no doubt was preparing for Oklahoma for weeks before that game, as to where A&M im sure has been preparing for this game for a long while since they have had three weak opponents so far, so this is their first big game. On the other hand, playing against Miami isnt sitting well when seeing this tidbit:

 

Miami as a home team, playing after a non division game where they have scored 21+ points is 11-1 ATS. Texas A&M in the past 4 years playing on the road against non conference big schools are 0-6 ATS.

 

 

Phills should have some better info regarding tonight with a more concrete play on a side.....where the heck is he?

 

Safest bet to me seems to be the over, but that why they play the game. Well see!

 

Good Luck!!

[swirvenirvin 25]

ok fockers im back for thursday night betting.

 

Going with the over got it at 45

[new-guru 0]

Anybody taking the 23 over at half

I am 3 units

[phillybear 366]

Overall NCAA: 51-38-2; +14.9 units

Subset: 2 units or higher: 33-24-1; +12.2

Subset: 1st or 2nd H plays: 7-2; +10.7 units

 

Thursday

 

Texas A&M (+1.5) for 2 units

 

Texas A&M is seeing 60% of the action.

 

Key stats:

Texas A&M is 5-1-1 last 7 as a dog

Texas A&M was 5-0 SU and ATS in true road games last year (lost bowl game)

Texas A&M gains 445 per game, allows 383

Texas A&M is rushing for 296 yards per game, 3rd in the nation

Texas A&M is gaining 6.3 yards per rush

 

Miami is 11-21 ATS last 32 at home

Miami is 1-7 SU last 8 games vs ranked teams

Miami is 2-9 ATS last 11 vs teams with winning record

Miami is 2-9-1 ATS last 11 as favorite

Miami is getting outgained on the season 302 to 303 yards per game

 

Texas A&M is coming off a very nice year, and is continuing that momentum into this season. This is a veteran smashmouth team that will pile up rushing yards on everybody, whether it comes from QB McGhee or RB Lane. Texas A&M blew out Montana St, had a close call vs Fresno St, and blew out UL Monroe. Now, the Fresno St game can be forgiveable, as Pat Hill historically get's his teams very well prepared for out of conference games, and they cover them at around a 75% clip, if memory serves me right. But it bodes well that A&M blew out UL Monroe, especially after how well the Sun Belt teams have performed in non conference games this year, continually upsetting teams or giving them a scare. I'm sure you've noticed by now, after I have been pointing it out every week. A&M looks like the better team to me.

 

Meet Miami Fla. You might not recognize them, as they are no longer a top notch team. Just look at all those trends and stats at the top of my post. They have been overmatched against good teasm for a while, and the linesmakers and bettors have been creating spreads for them as if they were the old Miami. The line is finally catching up with their struggling, but not enough. Miami should not be favored in this game. Yes, they beat Marshall and Flor Int this year by double digits. But when they played Oklahoma, they lost 51-13. I don't think they can step up in class at this point.

 

I though about taking Texas A&M on the money line. But they played a bunch of close games on the road last year, winning by 4, 3, 1, 10, and 5. I'll take the points.

 

Good luck to all.

[jkg31885 0]

Philly it seems as though the oddsmakers are begging us to take A&M. A&M is obviously the better team, but for some reason MIami is favored. Any thoughts??

[phillybear 366]

Philly it seems as though the oddsmakers are begging us to take A&M. A&M is obviously the better team, but for some reason MIami is favored. Any thoughts??

 

If the oddsmaker wanted us to take A&M, the line would be Miami -3.5 or Miami -4. Instead, we get a line where a more well known team is less than a FG favorite on a weekday national TV game. With the action close to break even, I don't think it's a trap game, but I could be wrong.

[dleake8806 0]

philly, any thoughts on the O/U in tonights game?

[ToledoLurch 0]

The line on Bodog is +3 (-145). Anyone have any ideas why they would make the juice so high rather than lowering the line?

[phillybear 366]

philly, any thoughts on the O/U in tonights game?

 

Nope. After I realized that I typically struggle with college totals, I usually avoid them altogether.

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

I am going somewhat big on this game tonight by taking Texas A&M +2.5 for 4 units. My logic is that the Aggies are and up and coming team, they will be a better coached team than Miami, and the Orange Bowl is not as feared of a place for the U as it used to be. If I had any concern tonight is how the Aggies Defense will do against the run and will Miami stay committed to the run. This could scream OVER as well but I have lost money on totals YTD so I am staying away from totals as I think scoring overall has been down and the totals seem to suggest that.

 

NCAA 31-26-2 (+8.65 units)

NFL 19-14 (4.1 units)

 

Texas A&M +2.5 (4 units)

[Guest _my_2_cents_]

hey Philly - any thoughts on my thoughts on page 1?

 

would like to get an expert opinion before I drop $200 semolians.

[phillybear 366]

hey Philly - any thoughts on my thoughts on page 1?

 

would like to get an expert opinion before I drop $200 semolians.

 

I don't make final decisions on games until Friday night. You can check with me then. But I always recommend to bet with your gut. After all, it's your money.

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

I am kind of liking the Oklahoma 1st quarter and 1st half lines more than the total. Philly what do your books have them listed at?

[phillybear 366]

For informational purposes, Dr Bob's picks

 

3 stars: LSU, Arizona

2 stars: Navy

 

Strong opinions, not plays: Buffalo, North Carolina, Miami OH, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Houston, UL Lafayette, Iowa.

 

And that is why the lines just moved in those games. Hell, California went from -16 to -13 against Arizona. Yikes.

[phillybear 366]

I am kind of liking the Oklahoma 1st quarter and 1st half lines more than the total. Philly what do your books have them listed at?

 

Not posted yet. They usually wait until day of the games for "special" lines.

 

I'm leaning towards Oklahoma, but I need to dig into it further.

[GiantsRule 0]

For informational purposes, Dr Bob's picks

 

3 stars: LSU, Arizona

2 stars: Navy

 

Strong opinions, not plays: Buffalo, North Carolina, Miami OH, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Houston, UL Lafayette, Iowa.

 

And that is why the lines just moved in those games. Hell, California went from -16 to -13 against Arizona. Yikes.

 

After these are official, you think greyhounds washes the splooge from his hands before he comes here to bash you?

[GiantsRule 0]

The total is right in the neighborhood that it should be, its back up a point around the boards that ive been looking at. No signs point to a safe play in this game. I like the fact Miamis Offense showed a bit of spark last week, A&Ms D gave up 210 yards in the first half to LM, and Miami has trouble with the triple option. Miami is missing a safety tonight as well. I think we can reach 48+ points in this game, with potential to trade scores in overtime should it happen based on what should be a close game.

 

Good Luck!!

 

Seems to be back to 46 in some places? Weather change? Whale bets coming in? I don't care about the reasoning; I just want this thing to be 50 points by the 3rd quarter! Good luck boys!

 

[greyhounds 0]

For informational purposes, Dr Bob's picks

 

3 stars: LSU, Arizona

2 stars: Navy

 

Strong opinions, not plays: Buffalo, North Carolina, Miami OH, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Houston, UL Lafayette, Iowa.

 

And that is why the lines just moved in those games. Hell, California went from -16 to -13 against Arizona. Yikes.

I just got them also Philly...Dr. Bob and You are like $$$ in the Bank. I'm on A+M Tonight and You should take a large look at the Marlins and believe it or not...Orioles Tonight. Two VERY NICE DOGS!

[greyhounds 0]

After these are official, you think greyhounds washes the splooge from his hands before he comes here to bash you?

 

Shouldn't you be Fasting?? Scram and let the Irish have some Fun.

[greyhounds 0]

I am going somewhat big on this game tonight by taking Texas A&M +2.5 for 4 units. My logic is that the Aggies are and up and coming team, they will be a better coached team than Miami, and the Orange Bowl is not as feared of a place for the U as it used to be. If I had any concern tonight is how the Aggies Defense will do against the run and will Miami stay committed to the run. This could scream OVER as well but I have lost money on totals YTD so I am staying away from totals as I think scoring overall has been down and the totals seem to suggest that.

 

NCAA 31-26-2 (+8.65 units)

NFL 19-14 (4.1 units)

 

Texas A&M +2.5 (4 units)

 

I see that DICKA is on My and Philly's A+M pick tonight...hope he doesn't mush the wager.

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

Shouldn't you be Fasting?? Scram and let the Irish have some Fun.

I am having trouble paying my bills. Any comments?

[Hurricane Ditka 0]

I see that DICKA is on My and Philly's A+M pick tonight...hope he doesn't mush the wager.

Check your posts FOCKER. You are on my play and Philly's play tonight. Go play your Orioles and Marlins tonight stupid.

[ToledoLurch 0]

NCAA 23-15-2 up 20.7 units

 

Texas A&M +3 - 2 units

A&M/Miami over 46 1 unit

 

 

good luck all

[phillybear 366]

You should take a large look at the Marlins and believe it or not...Orioles Tonight. Two VERY NICE DOGS!

 

I think I'm down to one play a week in baseball, if even that much. I'm up around +130 units on the year, +91 units posting at this site, and it's lost it's luster when you don't know what teams have thrown in the towel but show up once in a while to bite your ass.

 

I took OVER Sea/Oak on Tuesday for 6 units. 8-7 final.

[EAwer 1]

lol greyhounds, yom kippur fast doesnt start until friday night and lasts until sat sundown. but we dont need to eat to bet and watch football

[phillybear 366]

Early play for Saturday.

 

Penn St (-2.5) for 3 units

 

Beating Notre Dame doesn't mean that all of the sudden you are a respectable team. I've said on several occasions that Penn St has a shot to run the table this year. If it wasn't for a TD on the last play of the game a couple of seasons ago on this same field, Penn St would have been in the national championship game. Revenge.

[footballallyear 0]

I layed 3 units at Over 44.5 and it's now up to 45

 

No Worries

 

Score you bitches

 

 

It's at 46 now...anyone know if this was a release or is the cash just flying over?

 

Either way I'm stoked...

[Guest _my_2_cents_]

After all, it's your money.

 

actually, I stole it, but we don't need to get into that here.

 

Does that change your opinion at all?

[Guest _my_2_cents_]

For informational purposes, Dr Bob's picks

 

3 stars: LSU, Arizona

2 stars: Navy

 

Strong opinions, not plays: Buffalo, North Carolina, Miami OH, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Houston, UL Lafayette, Iowa.

 

And that is why the lines just moved in those games. Hell, California went from -16 to -13 against Arizona. Yikes.

 

He's got Cinci and North Carolina too.

 

I'm not sold on LSU, even though they won me $$$ in week 1 (bet the 1st half 200 semolians, then went back at the half and made a drunken bet of another 100 semolians....both hit, but that second half bet had me worried)

[Bouve-Rules 0]

Miami -3 at +120.

 

Bodog does it again - they refuse to move the line off of 3 and keep jacking with the juice. Rather than laying -140 to take A&M at +3, I'll take the opposite side as the bored and subject myself to mock and ridicule from the crew.

 

Miami at home with Kyle Wright back under center. Randy Shannon trying to prove some doubter wrong in prime time. I don't think it will be pretty, but I'm taking the U tonight. Let it rain, let it rain!

[cribdog 0]

I think the wrong side is favored tonight, taking A&M on the ML, 1 unit

 

After seeing some of the bretheren on A&M also, I am upping to 2 units!

 

YTD: 6-3-1, up 6 units! 2-0 on 2 unit plays or higher

[mikecass7 0]

whats up felow degenerates?

 

Jumped on A+M +2.5 for 2 units. Need to get off to a good start this week as the NFL focked me up good sunday. Gave back all of Saturdays profits and then some.

[Grind 0]

Early play for Saturday.

 

Penn St (-2.5) for 3 units

 

Beating Notre Dame doesn't mean that all of the sudden you are a respectable team. I've said on several occasions that Penn St has a shot to run the table this year. If it wasn't for a TD on the last play of the game a couple of seasons ago on this same field, Penn St would have been in the national championship game. Revenge.

 

 

Not that you need me to tell you this Philly, but this is a very strong play. Hate to admit it, but I'm a Michigan fan. I had this game as one of my favorites (cinci the other) earlier in the week. As the week goes on, I'm finding it hard to pull the trigger. Not because I think this isn't easy money (Penn State by 17), but I would have a tough time rooting for Michigan to win while losing money. This is one of the two worse Michigan teams I can remember in the last 20 years.