Rookie Draft This Year

[listen2me 23 1,547]

Many would think McFadden is the no brainer for #1. I would have said the same thing 4 months ago.

 

But I've heard more and more that he won't be a 20 carry a game guy.

 

I know some depends on team that drafts the player.

 

But would Mendenhall be the #1 or would it still be McFadden based on a huge upside and potential to be a Marshall Faulk type player?

[LOD01 192]

I'll let you know once I see what team drafts them. If I had to pick before the NFL draft, I would take Mendenhall.

[DixieDevils 0]

I still think Darren McFadden will go #1 in fantasy rookie drafts, but I also see, as normal, that this will be a top heavy RB draft in most rookie offensive player only drafts.

 

I'm in a 12-team dynasty and my early guess is that at least 7 or 8 RBs will go in Round 1.

[Belushi 9]

I don't think you can say before the draft. If a guy gets the job handed to him (i.e., Texans), he's going to be more valuable than in a RBBC (i.e., Oakland). There's not many teams this year that have a guy that will step in and be the #1 though, so it will really depend on what kind of competition is around him at RB. But I'd say McFadden, Mendenhall or Stewart will be the #1 pick in dynasty league rookie drafts. (I've got two coming up in a few months).

[49ER MAN 0]

It depends upon where they get drafted and what is the situation around that position.

[xenophobe 1]

I like Mendenhall better than McFadden, and both over Stewart. But the situation makes a big difference, so it will depend on where they get drafted.

[jgcrawfish 232]

I personally like Stewart, Mendenhall and McFadden, in roughly that order. That doesn't even include later guys I'd like to take a shot on (Rice, Forte, etc). I have the #2 pick and hope that the #1 guy takes McFadden, in fact I'll honestly be disappointed if he takes Stewart. If I were in the #1 spot I'd be vigorously trying to trade with the #3 guy, maybe even the #2 guy, to get an additional pick hopefully on McFadden hype. I honestly think you could pull a Rnd1 and a Rnd4 or Rnd5 pick and get the Rnd1 and Rnd2 pick from the #2 or #3 pick guy just based on how Adrian Peterson did last year and how overhyped McFadden is this year. According to Wildman's value chart it's still warped toward your opponent, but that all relative. If the #1 pick is the "wrong" guy and you get the right guy at a cheaper price...you're definitely the winner!

[sinceufc2 0]

Stewart is amazing, so is Mendenhall. If I had the #1 pick I'd try and trade down to #3- IMO no matter where he goes McFadden will be the #1 pick in 90% of the rookie drafts. I'd love to be at 3, take who's left of Stewart or Mendenhall and pick up extra value.

 

Edited to add wasn't trying to mock crawfish, I agree with his views.

[remote controller 133]

I pick 4th and feel that isn't too bad of place to be. This draft seems incredibly deep as far as backs are concerned and would love to have a player like Chris Johnson or Felix Jones be the 2nd back I take in it. Devin Thomas should be the top wideout in it.

[Bently 0]

I like Stewart and Mendenhall aheard of McFadden. Both of those guys have NFL-type of power and the necessary leg drive to push through defenders and break tackles. I think McFadden is more Reggie Bush than Adrian Peterson. Stewart reminds me of a young Fred Taylor (maybe not as elusive), and Mendenhall has all the tools to be an every-down back. Personally, I think Stewart will be the best RB in this draft, but picking at no.3 this year I'll take whoever is left and be happy.

[Ras66not99 0]

It depends upon where they get drafted and what is the situation around that position.

 

Always take the more talented player (at least in a Dynasty League).... letting the situation influence your decision when dealing with Dynasty drafts usually comes back to bite ya in da ass in the long run

[49ER MAN 0]

 

Always take the more talented player (at least in a Dynasty League).... letting the situation influence your decision when dealing with Dynasty drafts usually comes back to bite ya in da ass in the long run

 

Fair enough.

[ed_jones 0]

I cant wait for the draft. I just traded Derek Anderson, T.Holt, C.Henry (RB), and pick 8 for T.Romo, D.Stallworth, P.Holmes (keeps rosters even), and pick 3. I'm just gonna wait and see who falls and scoop that RB up.

[sinceufc2 0]

I cant wait for the draft. I just traded Derek Anderson, T.Holt, C.Henry (RB), and pick 8 for T.Romo, D.Stallworth, P.Holmes (keeps rosters even), and pick 3. I'm just gonna wait and see who falls and scoop that RB up.

 

You destroyed that guy in that trade. I like Holt for another very good year this season and a couple decent ones after that but he isn't even close to being enough to get Romo & 1.03 for Anderson & 1.08. I also have pick 1.03 and I'm pumped too. I love both Mendenhall or Stewart so I'll be happy either way.

[edjr 5,582]

Rookie draft?

 

Is there another kind?

[xenophobe 1]

Many would think McFadden is the no brainer for #1. I would have said the same thing 4 months ago.

 

But I've heard more and more that he won't be a 20 carry a game guy.

 

That's true. The team that picked him came out and said they don't plan on making him the feature back.

 

Seriously, I like Mendenhall quite a bit more than McFadden, but don't you think we need to at least see what team drafts them first? If McFadden ends up in a dynamic offense he is going to have huge fantasy value.

[sinceufc2 0]

Rookie draft?

 

Is there another kind?

 

Dynasty leagues are my favorite as well but I do like to do 1 or 2 local redraft leagues just because I love draft day so much. I might join another dynasty this year. In the world of fantasy football nothing beats draft day for a dynasty league- so much is on the line and if you ###### up it'll hinder you for a while.

[listen2me 23 1,547]

If McFadden ends up in a dynamic offense he is going to have huge fantasy value.

 

Which dynamic Off are you talking about?? The Pats pick at #7. He won't make it that far, and I doubt anyone trades upt o get him.

 

The Raiders? The Jets?

[xenophobe 1]

Which dynamic Off are you talking about?? The Pats pick at #7. He won't make it that far, and I doubt anyone trades upt o get him.

 

The Raiders? The Jets?

 

You tell me where he's going. Then tell me where Mendenhall is going, and Stewart too. Because I can't rank them without knowing, and I know enough not to make assumptions about where guys will get drafted.

[redtodd 7]

I would think it would be McFadden hands down.

[jgcrawfish 232]

It does depend on where they go and what their situation is. I honestly believe that Stewart and Mendenhall will have better, more successful careers and are much more ready to make an impact next season than McFadden is. McFadden's value is going to depend immensely on where he ends up. I don't think he's ready to be a primary ball carrier in the NFL. For his size his speed is almost unparalleled, however, I don't think he has the moves, the patience or the recognition/vision at this point to dominate on the next level. And his blocking is deficient. I think he's a great change of pace back if used in a Reggie Bush like role, however, he's not as versatile or instinctive as Bush. I just don't see the next Adrian Peterson in him, so I think that Stewart and Mendenhall will be more successful long term.

[listen2me 23 1,547]

You tell me where he's going. Then tell me where Mendenhall is going, and Stewart too. Because I can't rank them without knowing, and I know enough not to make assumptions about where guys will get drafted.

 

Like a poster said in a previous post......Team means almost nothing in a dynasty draft. It is the talent. Players don't ride the tails of a good cast forever. Teams change. You can have the greatest Off one year and suck the next year.

 

Bottom line is McFadden will be going to Oakland or the Jets......most likely.

 

I don't think McFadden is a 20 carry RB. That right there is proof enough to make me not take him 1st.

[listen2me 23 1,547]

I would think it would be McFadden hands down.

 

Just because of his name or his hype?

 

I don't want Reggie Bush. I want a guy who can pound the rock for several years. I think Mendenhall is an overall better RB than McFadden, Stewart I'm not so sure about.

[listen2me 23 1,547]

It does depend on where they go and what their situation is. I honestly believe that Stewart and Mendenhall will have better, more successful careers and are much more ready to make an impact next season than McFadden is. McFadden's value is going to depend immensely on where he ends up. I don't think he's ready to be a primary ball carrier in the NFL. For his size his speed is almost unparalleled, however, I don't think he has the moves, the patience or the recognition/vision at this point to dominate on the next level. And his blocking is deficient. I think he's a great change of pace back if used in a Reggie Bush like role, however, he's not as versatile or instinctive as Bush. I just don't see the next Adrian Peterson in him, so I think that Stewart and Mendenhall will be more successful long term.

 

You think it depends that much on situation? But then you say that Mendenhall and Stewart will be better RBs....So didn't you just answer it right there?

[xenophobe 1]

Like a poster said in a previous post......Team means almost nothing in a dynasty draft. It is the talent. Players don't ride the tails of a good cast forever. Teams change. You can have the greatest Off one year and suck the next year.

 

Bottom line is McFadden will be going to Oakland or the Jets......most likely.

 

I don't think McFadden is a 20 carry RB. That right there is proof enough to make me not take him 1st.

 

I can't disagree more. What team you go to and fit play a HUGE role in a players success. There are exceptions, but teams performance from year to year is hardly as random as you make it out to be. There are definitly teams with more promising futures than others, and overnight turnarounds are a lot less common than you make it out to be.

 

The question of McFadden being a 20 carry guy or not has everything to do with the team he goes to, and we won't know what they have in mind for him until a lot closer to the start of the season. The team may not even know for sure themselves until they get him into camp working in their system under they eyes of their staff.

[listen2me 23 1,547]

The question of McFadden being a 20 carry guy or not has everything to do with the team he goes to, and we won't know what they have in mind for him until a lot closer to the start of the season. The team may not even know for sure themselves until they get him into camp.

 

So you think Reggie Bush could be a 20 carry guy if he was on another team???

 

The player either is or isn't. IMO McFadden isn't, and he isn't the type of RB who is a fantasy stud for several years. I refuse to follow the hype.

 

I guess we just disagree. Thats fine.

[listen2me 23 1,547]

And I undertand team matters if one of them would go to Dallas and share carries and whatnot.

 

But right now I think you can get a grip on who you think will have the best career, no one really knows, but team doesn't influance me that much.

 

Even more that I almost know McFadden will go to the Jets or Raiders. Those bad teams make him even less desirable for me.

[listen2me 23 1,547]

Also just curious.

 

Lets say you like Mendenhall better.

 

What situations would make you take McFadden over him? Since teams matter so much. Choose a team for McFadden and a team for Mendenhall, it doesn't even have to be a team that has a chance to take either.

[xenophobe 1]

So you think Reggie Bush could be a 20 carry guy if he was on another team???

 

I don't recall saying that. Do I think another team might use him differently? Absolutly. Another team might see him as a 20 carry guy and look to develop him into that.

[listen2me 23 1,547]

I don't recall saying that. Do I think another team might use him differently? Absolutly. Another team might see him as a 20 carry guy and look to develop him into that.

 

So any guy can be developed into whatever that team wants? So basically it is all team and talent doesn't really matter too much? You haven't said that but that is basically what I feel you are saying.

 

And I'm curious to your answer on my question above.

[t.j 35]

Too early to tell.

[t.j 35]

Even more that I almost know McFadden will go to the Jets or Raiders. Those bad teams make him even less desirable for me.

 

The Raiders rushed for over 2000 yards last year. I don't like McFadden as a top prospect and I hope my Raiders don't pick him, but going to Oakland would be good for his fantasy numbers IMO.

[xenophobe 1]

Also just curious.

 

Lets say you like Mendenhall better.

 

What situations would make you take McFadden over him? Since teams matter so much. Choose a team for McFadden and a team for Mendenhall, it doesn't even have to be a team that has a chance to take either.

 

Its not as simple as that. I need to know how the team that drafts him plans on using them.

[xenophobe 1]

So any guy can be developed into whatever that team wants?

 

I'm done discussing this. I never said that. Players can be developed. That's what NFL teams do for EVERY player that gets drafted to different degrees. Guys can be put in to strength programs to bulk up, add strength, and develop conditioning. They can trim down and work on speed and footwork. They can be coached. NFL staffs and trainers get paid a lot of money to do just that. I'm stating something that should be obvious, and you are putting words into my mouth and taking them to absurd extremes.

[listen2me 23 1,547]

Its not as simple as that. I need to know how the team that drafts him plans on using them.

 

Well you said yourself that you can't tell until you see where they are drafted. Once you know that how will you know which way the team is planning on using them?

[xenophobe 1]

Well you said yourself that you can't tell until you see where they are drafted. Once you know that how will you know which way the team is planning on using them?

 

Is your draft tomorrow? Seriously, this is getting old.

[jgcrawfish 232]

You think it depends that much on situation? But then you say that Mendenhall and Stewart will be better RBs....So didn't you just answer it right there?

 

I'm higher on Mendenhall and Stewart, and feel that both would be more successful than McFadden if all else was the same (like say each went to the same team), but the situation obviously affects it somewhat. Two teams that have been linked to McFadden in numerous mocks, the Jets and Raiders, both might allow McFadden some measure of success, for the simple reason that Oakland proved they can run last year, so McFadden in that offense would carry a moderately good chance of success. I also like the situation of the Jets, as I think their O-line is improved and will get better as the year goes on. Conversely, if for some reason McFadden got tabbed by the Chiefs, IMO he's got very little chance of success there. I believe that if McFadden were to fall to say Denver, he may have more success there than Stewart and Mendenhall would in say Chicago and Detroit because I believe that his overall team would be superior in that case and his talents would match that offensive scheme well.

 

But let's play an interesting what-if game here...let's use a scenario where each one went to say Detroit, I would anticipate that both Stewart and Mendenhall would be better backs because they both have better all around games, particularly in the blocking category, and are built for more pounding than McFadden is. Both also possess good vision and moves, and tackle breaking ability, which is generally a necessity when the defense is pretty much living in your backfield like happens in Chicago and Detroit. I don't see McFadden with those skills and would assume that you can't outrun anybody that already has you wrapped up.

 

Now, having said that, I still anticipate that hype will drive McFadden to the #1 pick in dynasty drafts and the top rookie taken in redrafts, particularly if he goes several picks higher than Mendenhall and Stewart in the NFL draft. Just about everybody will make the obvious assumption that him going in the top 10, and Mendenhall/Stewart in the 15-25 range means he's that much better, which I just don't buy. I will state again, that if I had the #1 pick, I'd try and trade out of it based on the McFadden hype. If I have the #2 or #3 pick and McFadden is gone, I think I'm fairly happy with either Mendenhall or Stewart. The hard situation for me is if for some reason Mendenhall and Stewart went #1 and #2 in the rookie draft, I'm not sure I'd feel comfortable picking McFadden at #3 and might try and trade down, but obviously your trade value is diminished if 3 out of 3 top drafters all devalued McFadden.

[Quickolas1 80]

in hindsight, i'm sure some out there took marshawn lynch ahead of ADP because of chester taylor

(not many i'm sure, but some)

 

if so, oops

 

i always seem to end up one pick outside of the elite college RB's...

i ended up with deangelo williams after bush, addai and maroney

 

this year = 5th pick

[jgcrawfish 232]

in hindsight, i'm sure some out there took marshawn lynch ahead of ADP because of chester taylor

(not many i'm sure, but some)

 

if so, oops

 

i always seem to end up one pick outside of the elite college RB's...

i ended up with deangelo williams after bush, addai and maroney

 

this year = 5th pick

 

at this point we're only 1 season into it and there is really nothing which says that Lynch may not turn out to be the better long term back. Lynch performed like a #1 back more consistently than ADP did last year although he obviously didn't have the large explosions that ADP did. And he did so behind a line that is a significant downgrade over the one that ADP runs behind. I had the #3 pick last year and was thrilled to have Lynch fall to me after ADP and Calvin went. Would I have liked to have had ADP, sure. But one season does not a career make...

[shaqers 0]

at this point we're only 1 season into it and there is really nothing which says that Lynch may not turn out to be the better long term back. Lynch performed like a #1 back more consistently than ADP did last year although he obviously didn't have the large explosions that ADP did. And he did so behind a line that is a significant downgrade over the one that ADP runs behind. I had the #3 pick last year and was thrilled to have Lynch fall to me after ADP and Calvin went. Would I have liked to have had ADP, sure. But one season does not a career make...

 

only injury would DERAIL Peterson's path to greatness. Lynch isn't in the same tier as ADP, fantasy or reality. nowhere close.