Keeper? I hardly know her!

[pooravatar 0]

Looking for some thoughts on my keeper decision.

 

I am in a very competitive 12-player PPR keeper league.

We can keep up to 3 players. Keeping 3 players means my first draft pick will be in round 4.

I am the returning champ, so I will pick last in round 4 (I have the 1st pick in round 5)

 

We start:

1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE

 

Keepers Options:

QB Tony Romo

RB Adrian Peterson (MIN)

RB Marion Barber

WR Reggie Wayne

WR Larry Fitzgerald

 

Keeping AP is a no-brainer and I think I could make a case for any 2 of the other 4 players.

 

I was originally thinking that Barber would not match his 2007 numbers and with the possible timesharing in DAL there are dozens of backs I would be almost as happy with including some rookies. Therefore, I was leaning towards AP, Wayne, and Romo. One big reason in favor of keeping Romo is that QBs have been so high-scoring in our league in the past and Romo was actually 2nd only to Brady last year.

 

But now after reading some hype surrounding Barber I am thinking I might keep AP, MBIII, and Wayne as this would give me 2 potential top-5 RBs and I would be able to land a QB in the McNabb/Roethlisberger range with my 5th round pick or in the Bulger/E.Manning range with a later pick.

 

One other thing is that in our league we draft all of our starters before anyone can pick ANY backups and that I have the first overall backup pick.

 

Therefore, assuming I pick a RB with my first backup pick I am guaranteed to have no worse than the 25th best RB for my RB3.

Following the same logic, I am guaranteed to have no worse than the 24th best RB for my RB2, even if I chose to not keep a RB and focused on filling up the rest of my team first.

 

Anything else I should be thinking about?

Who would you keep in my situation?

 

Scoring:

6pts for all TDs

1pt / 10 yards rushing or receiving

1pt / reception

1pt / 50 yards passing plus additional points for accuracy (1pt / completion minus .04pt / attempt)

 

Thanks for the opinions

[Dynastyguru32 0]

I think I would go with MBIII, ADP & Fitz. I think to be able to lock up to potential top 5 rb's is a no brainer. I like Fitz over Wayne onlly because of Mannings injury and the possibility of Harrison being back my drop Wayne's numbers a little more this year. I like Romo as a QB but I think you can get one with your 1st or 2nd pick that won't be too far of a drop off from Romo.

[GreatGray 2]

But now after reading some hype surrounding Barber I am thinking I might keep AP, MBIII, and Wayne as this would give me 2 potential top-5 RBs and I would be able to land a QB in the McNabb/Roethlisberger range with my 5th round pick or in the Bulger/E.Manning range with a later pick.

 

That's what I'd do. I think Barber will be a top 5 RB this year. Wayne over Fitz for multiple reasons--mainly a lack of confidence in Leinart, but also because Boldin is back and he won't crush it like last year despite who is at QB. Romo is one TO-injury away from being slightly better than mediocre.

[jerryskids 5,206]

AP and MBIII are absolute indisputable stone cold locks for a keeper league. Arguments could be made for either Romo or Fitz as the 3rd; I'd be tempted to lean Romo based on adp at this point, but you can't go wrong.

[TheSoss 0]

AP and MBIII are absolute indisputable stone cold locks for a keeper league. Arguments could be made for either Romo or Fitz as the 3rd; I'd be tempted to lean Romo based on adp at this point, but you can't go wrong.

 

AP, MB3 and Wayne/Fitz.

 

I wouldn't keep Romo, but I have some strong opinions of some of the later QBs, so YMMV.

 

I prefer Wayne of Fitz, but that's only because I think Manning is going to throw for 51 tds this year.

[bno70_1 0]

In our standard scoring + PPR league last year, MB3 scored 60 less points than Fitz, and 70 less than Wayne. Now, check it out. Edge only scored 40 less than MB3. Jamal Lewis scored the same as MB3. See where I'm going? In PPR, the top wr's are GOLD. Do not miss the opportunity to dominate with AP, Wayne, and Fitz. Unless you think MB3 will significantly improve upon his 12 td's last year. I don't think he'll be that much better to make up the difference. Wayne and Fitz plus whatever back you grab with your first draft pick WILL outscore Wayne, MB3, and whatever Wr you would pick with your first pick.

[jerryskids 5,206]

In our standard scoring + PPR league last year, MB3 scored 60 less points than Fitz, and 70 less than Wayne. Now, check it out. Edge only scored 40 less than MB3. Jamal Lewis scored the same as MB3. See where I'm going? In PPR, the top wr's are GOLD. Do not miss the opportunity to dominate with AP, Wayne, and Fitz. Unless you think MB3 will significantly improve upon his 12 td's last year. I don't think he'll be that much better to make up the difference. Wayne and Fitz plus whatever back you grab with your first draft pick WILL outscore Wayne, MB3, and whatever Wr you would pick with your first pick.

Great point, my bad, I missed the PPR.

 

I'd still be inclined to take AP, MBIII, and Fitz tho. Wayne is on his downside from a keeper perspective, Fitz has more value.

[augmon 0]

Because of PPR I would go with ADP, Wayne and Fitz.

[Harald 0]

Because of PPR I would go with ADP, Wayne and Fitz.

 

Most definately yes. MBIII is still a top-12 back however but the points you get from arguably the top-2 WRs in the NFL and AP...

[DocNiner 44]

1.Peterson- 19 receptions last year,uhhhh, I think he'll improve on those numbers.Clearly top 5 rb for an extended period of time.

 

2.Wayne- clearly the #1 guy in Indy now and only the best nfl qb throwing to him. Last year hehad 104 receptions/1510 yds/10 tds, certainly could be duplicated but I see a slight reduction in catches if Marvin plays a significant amount of time.

 

3.MBIII- even with FJones gettin' a few carries Marion will still have top 10 numbers and possibly sneak into the top 5.A little bit of injury risk but what rb isn't. Don't think you could absolutely count on Fitz putting up better numbers than MBIII.Better chance of getting a QB who'll put up good numbers than keeping Romo and losing out on Barber's production.

[kmbryant09 1]

In our standard scoring + PPR league last year, MB3 scored 60 less points than Fitz, and 70 less than Wayne. Now, check it out. Edge only scored 40 less than MB3. Jamal Lewis scored the same as MB3. See where I'm going? In PPR, the top wr's are GOLD. Do not miss the opportunity to dominate with AP, Wayne, and Fitz. Unless you think MB3 will significantly improve upon his 12 td's last year. I don't think he'll be that much better to make up the difference. Wayne and Fitz plus whatever back you grab with your first draft pick WILL outscore Wayne, MB3, and whatever Wr you would pick with your first pick.

 

Those numbers are misleading as Barber was a backup last year (mostly RBBC) - I have followed the Cowboys closely, and assuming he can handle the workload, Barber is in for a 300 carry season...Don't shy away from Barber because you're worried about Felix Jones. I understand if you're iffy about his health concerns (although he's never appeared on an injury report in his career), but he won't lose many touches to Jones....I think you should go MBIII AP and Wayne over Fitz - too many question marks in Arizona, and no steady qb to throw him the ball. Fitz has been knicked up a few times in his career too. Even with Harrison back, Wayne is a lock for 90/1200/10 and will prolly end around 100/1300/12

[bno70_1 0]

Those numbers are misleading as Barber was a backup last year (mostly RBBC) - I have followed the Cowboys closely, and assuming he can handle the workload, Barber is in for a 300 carry season...Don't shy away from Barber because you're worried about Felix Jones. I understand if you're iffy about his health concerns (although he's never appeared on an injury report in his career), but he won't lose many touches to Jones....I think you should go MBIII AP and Wayne over Fitz - too many question marks in Arizona, and no steady qb to throw him the ball. Fitz has been knicked up a few times in his career too. Even with Harrison back, Wayne is a lock for 90/1200/10 and will prolly end around 100/1300/12

For a backup, he had 40 more carries than JJ last year. Just sayin. He will not, imo, improve enough on last year's numbers to warrant keeping him over Fitz in a PPR league. That's my opinion.

[NorthernVike 2,080]

You said in your first post that QB's are very high scoring and with 6pt for all TDs. Building a team around Romo, ADP, and Wayne is an unfair advantage I'd love to exploit.

[The Original Whizzinator 0]

I'd say AD, MBIII, and Wayne all day. As much as I think Fitz is great, you have to go with Indy's offense and the QB/RB difference. The disparity between MBIII and your RB2 is going to be much bigger than the WR you keep vs draft.

 

I found it interesting how people seemed very influenced by it being PPR even though we're talking about MBIII over a WR2 so I made a poll for my own team where I'm facing a tough PPR decision with similar players. Be a sport and head over and vote seeing I even posted it on the right board

[NorthernVike 2,080]

I'd say AD, MBIII, and Wayne all day. As much as I think Fitz is great, you have to go with Indy's offense and the QB/RB difference. The disparity between MBIII and your RB2 is going to be much bigger than the WR you keep vs draft.

 

I found it interesting how people seemed very influenced by it being PPR even though we're talking about MBIII over a WR2 so I made a poll for my own team where I'm facing a tough PPR decision with similar players. Be a sport and head over and vote seeing I even posted it on the right board

 

 

We are a lazy lot. Pleeze provide a link

[The Original Whizzinator 0]

My bad...

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...howtopic=316976

 

Thanks.

[bno70_1 0]

The disparity between MBIII and your RB2 is going to be much bigger than the WR you keep vs draft.

I disagree 100%

[The Original Whizzinator 0]

I disagree 100%

 

My reasoning on this is that his 1st pick isn't until the last pick in round 4. Isn't he much more likely to find a solid WR at that spot closer to on par with Wayne/Fitz than an RB like Barber at that spot? I'd have to think most good RBs are going to be kept.

[JREarly 0]

Peterson, Barber, Wayne......

 

PPR does make a difference but I would still go with Barber over Fitz simply because you should be able to get a decent WR before a decent RB, especially drafting at the end of the 4th round. Good luck.

[KSB2424 3,083]

You have the last pick in round 4. Brady, Manning, Brees, Palmer, and prolly Ben will all either be kept or drafted before you. Unless you are really high on the Cutlers and Garrards of the world I would keep Romo along with MBIII and AP. With 4.12 and 5.1 you can draft the two best WR's on the board and there should be some good ones left since you dropped Fitz and Wayne who will be drafted in the fourth round. You can snag guys like Bowe, Calvin Johnson, Santonio Holmes, Jennings, and Marvin Harrison.

 

[pooravatar 0]

So far the consensus is:

 

Unanimous to keep AP (obviously)

Almost unanimous to keep Wayne (1 vote for AP/MBIII/Romo and 1 vote for Fitz over Wayne)

 

SO, assuming I keep AP and Wayne...that leaves the last open spot and here is the tally so far from this thread:

 

MBIII - 6 votes

Fitz - 3 votes

Romo - 1 votes

 

I am really torn between these 3. I can honestly see myself keeping any of them.

 

MBIII - I would be set at RB with 2 potential top 5 guys.

 

Fitz - Would have a stellar WR corp with 2 potential top 3 guys.

 

Romo - Would have an advantage in QB at the expense of a RB2 drop.

 

Looking at it this way....

If I didn't keep MBIII I assume my RB2 would be one of T.Jones/J.Jones/Turner/Maroney/Edge.

If I didn't keep Romo I assume my QB would be one of Bulger/Garrard/D.Anderson/Cutler

If I didn't keep Fitz I assume my WR2 would be Cal.Johsnon/Ward/Coles

...The drop in QB seems the biggest to me.

[jerryskids 5,206]

So far the consensus is:

 

Unanimous to keep AP (obviously)

Almost unanimous to keep Wayne (1 vote for AP/MBIII/Romo and 1 vote for Fitz over Wayne)

 

SO, assuming I keep AP and Wayne...that leaves the last open spot and here is the tally so far from this thread:

 

MBIII - 6 votes

Fitz - 3 votes

Romo - 1 votes

 

I am really torn between these 3. I can honestly see myself keeping any of them.

 

MBIII - I would be set at RB with 2 potential top 5 guys.

 

Fitz - Would have a stellar WR corp with 2 potential top 3 guys.

 

Romo - Would have an advantage in QB at the expense of a RB2 drop.

 

Looking at it this way....

If I didn't keep MBIII I assume my RB2 would be one of T.Jones/J.Jones/Turner/Maroney/Edge.

If I didn't keep Romo I assume my QB would be one of Bulger/Garrard/D.Anderson/Cutler

If I didn't keep Fitz I assume my WR2 would be Cal.Johsnon/Ward/Coles

...The drop in QB seems the biggest to me.

I was the "Fitz over Wayne" guy I think. I just don't see how you could take Wayne over Fitz in a keeper league. Fitz is just hitting his prime, Wayne is at the top and on the way down. Will you want Wayne over Fitz in 09? 10? Part of the keeper decision is looking to the future. Even if you think Wayne has more value this year, I don't think it is enough "more" to justify keeping him over Fitz.

[KSB2424 3,083]

The drop in QB seems the biggest to me.

Bingo. Considering 6pts for a QB TD, keeping Romo makes the most sense.

[Dynastyguru32 0]

How many of the teams in your league will keep 3 players? Is there anyway that you can trade one of these guys to get a better draft pick? Obviously, I would think that Romo, ADP, MBIII, Wayne and Fitz would all be off the board in a regular draft by the time you have the last pick in the 4th round. Could you possible trade one of the 2 guys that you won't be keeping to move up. Say Fitz and your 4th round pick to possibly move up to the 3rd round or earlier 4th round pick?

[pooravatar 0]

How many of the teams in your league will keep 3 players? Is there anyway that you can trade one of these guys to get a better draft pick? Obviously, I would think that Romo, ADP, MBIII, Wayne and Fitz would all be off the board in a regular draft by the time you have the last pick in the 4th round. Could you possible trade one of the 2 guys that you won't be keeping to move up. Say Fitz and your 4th round pick to possibly move up to the 3rd round or earlier 4th round pick?

 

Trading in the offseason is basically not allowed because it is viewed as getting the use of more than 3 keepers which defies the spirit of the 3 keeper limit. So, unfortunately, trading is not an option.

[pee-diddy 27]

ADP and MBIII (two no-brainers for keepr leagues)

 

then I would go with Larry Fitz. He is coming into his prime with a QB (Leinart) who could blossom (or not). But Fitz should still be OK for this season with Warner as backup. Plus Fitz is locked into a long contract (no holdouts or drama)

 

Wayne is defn. in his prime but will not play for as long as Fitz in terms of keeper value.

 

Romo-- T.O. is in his mid-30's. Once he is gone (or injured due to age), Romo will not have anyone top tier to throw to unless DAL does something in an upcoming offseason. Otherwise I don't see Romo putting up monster numbers w/o TO. I'd rather release Romo and be happy I got Big Ben, Bulger, D. Anderson, etc. Unless you're talking about Brady or Manning, QB's come a dime a dozen in keeper leagues. There is lots of value in QB's this year (a lot of middle of the pack QB's who could put up top 5-10 numbers).

[big dog 0]

I'd look at the draft order and look at the teams in the top 3 draft slots (if you can still trade). Usually the bottom feeders will have a keeper slot available so you could give up MBIII, Romo, Wayne or Fitz and give up a lower round pick (3rd round?) to grab their top 3 pick plus your other first round pick.

 

If this is not possible, I'm in the minority and think you should keep Romo (with ADP) and choose between Wayne and MBIII. Like you said, Romo was only second to Brady in scoring in the system you utilize. Brady and Manning will be kept for sure by other teams and Brees will likely be kept. The drop in QB play is significant enough to keep Romo IMHO.

[bno70_1 0]

A common myth on PPR is that you can just grab any old Wr, plug him in, and not miss out on much compared to a top tier guy like Fitz. This couldn't be further from the truth. It's Larry Freaking Fitzgerald. This isn't some 65 catch, 980 yard chump we're talking about here. Look up his career stats for crying out loud.

If you think you can get on the level of Tjones, Turner, Edge, etc as your Rb2, then you HAVE to keep AP, Wayne, and Fitz.

[pooravatar 0]

One thing I didn't mention is that in our league we draft all of our starters before anyone can pick ANY backups and that I have the first overall backup pick.

 

Therefore, assuming I pick a RB with my first backup pick I am guaranteed to have no worse than the 25th best RB for my RB3.

Following the same logic, I am guaranteed to have no worse than the 24th best RB for my RB2, even if I chose to not keep a RB and focused on filling up the rest of my team first

 

Does that change anyone's opinion?

[bno70_1 0]

One thing I didn't mention is that in our league we draft all of our starters before anyone can pick ANY backups and that I have the first overall backup pick.

 

Therefore, assuming I pick a RB with my first backup pick I am guaranteed to have no worse than the 25th best RB for my RB3.

Following the same logic, I am guaranteed to have no worse than the 24th best RB for my RB2, even if I chose to not keep a RB and focused on filling up the rest of my team first

 

Does that change anyone's opinion?

Yes, my opinion now is that your league is stupid.

Take the kid gloves off and let people draft who they want when they want.