Tom Brady

[FantasyBowl33 0]

We now know thanks to the Geek consensus Ratings that people see Brady as the #1 QB, due to Brady's prolific year in 2007. Yet from the opinions you read no one thinks he'll come close to those numbers he put up last year.

 

Is this based on just Marino and Manning's year after? Brady is good just not 50 Td's good? I believe he will top 40 TD's again, am I completely crazy?

 

I look at the schedule and then, most importantly look at his r,receivers. He threw for 50 TD's with a WR core that never played together or caught a pass from Brady. Moss didn't play in a game with Brady until week 1 and looked what happened that day (9 rec. 1 TD 183). With another year under their belts together, isn't safe to assume the offense/chemistry will be even better?

 

The OL concerns people a lot due to their disappearing act in the SB, but I'm not going to downgrade a whole OL after 1 game, if there is any concern with the OL it's injury, not the SB loss.

 

People also bring up how the Offense was slowed down late in the year, so teams must have "figured them out", did teams figure them out or did the winter weather play a role? There was a lot of talk early in the year that Brady wouldn't break the record because the Patriots played a lot of, late north east games l that thoughts disappeared though, in place of the already said "figured them out" mantra.

 

People are expecting Belichick to be more split in terms of carries and attempted passes, where is this coming from, why would he change what was so successful for 17 out 18 games?

[Jesus Christ 0]

I'm in agreement.

 

I have the 3rd pick tomorrow night and will be grabbing Brady without hesitation.

[KSB2424 3,173]

He won't have a season like last year, but he will still throw for 4000 and 40. A bonafide top 7 pick.

[Me_2006 14]

4,100 yards or so.

 

 

39 TDs, 9 INTs.

[FantasyBowl33 0]

Has anyone seen him go 1 or 2 in leagues that reward 4 or 6 pts per Td? I have to imagine 8 and 10 team leagues must be seeing him go at 1

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

He won't have a season like last year, but he will still throw for 4000 and 40. A bonafide top 7 pick.

I hope he's still there at #6 in my draft.

[cblue 0]

People are expecting Belichick to be more split in terms of carries and attempted passes, where is this coming from, why would he change what was so successful for 17 out 18 games?

 

IMO.....

 

That balanced, methodical style is what won superbowl titles. In terms of Superbowl victories, that pass-first style was a complet failure. The balanced attack is what won him superbowls. I think it is a definate possibility that the *pats could go back to that balanced attack. Which means a drop in Brady's stats.

 

Part of the reason that Marino and Manning experienced a drop in their stats after their monster years is because all that passing didn't win a superbowl. Passing isn't the key to winning a superbowl. I think defense and ball control plays a bigger part. If the *pats feel the same way then Brady's stats will go down.

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

IMO.....

 

That balanced, methodical style is what won superbowl titles. In terms of Superbowl victories, that pass-first style was a complet failure. The balanced attack is what won him superbowls. I think it is a definate possibility that the *pats could go back to that balanced attack. Which means a drop in Brady's stats.

 

Part of the reason that Marino and Manning experienced a drop in their stats after their monster years is because all that passing didn't win a superbowl. Passing isn't the key to winning a superbowl. I think defense and ball control plays a bigger part. If the *pats feel the same way then Brady's stats will go down.

 

Not only that, but a balanced yet potent offensive attack is going to keep the defense off the field, too.

 

They have some holes on the defense, namely in the defensive backfield.

 

Defense wins championships, and if you're putting your defense in bad situations, you make it harder to win, especially when the offense has an off day. It only takes one off day.

 

It really is that simple.

[TD Ryan2 316]

as a Pats homer, I think you'll see Brady come back to the mid-30s in TDs.

 

Why? there's a few reasons.

 

1. The Oline.

Won't be as good as last year. They were dominant last year; ESPN goons were getting ready to call them the greatest Oline of all time. They are already having some trouble in camp this year. Line depth is a concern for NE and they won't all stay healthy.

 

2. More RBs.

Part of the reason NE didn't run last year was because they had nobody to run the ball. Maroney was hurt. Morris was hurt. Evans is more of a full back and K Faulk started more games and touched the ball more than any other NE RB.

Now with L Jordan in the mix, NE will carry 5 RBs this year. The only way they run less is if Maroney, Morris, and L Jordan all get hurt again (at the same time).

 

3. Resting Moss and starters

Moss played in nearly every play and every down for NE last year. Same with Welker and Brady. NE has stated they will make an effort to keep players fresher for later in the year.

[cblue 0]

I just remembered....

 

 

*belicheat was pissed off that he was accused of cheating and fined all that money. So all year long he was running up the score, going for it on 4th down more than he normally would, going for the score after the game was clearly already in hand.....

 

I don't think *belicheat isn't quite so pissed off this year, so I don't think he will allow Brady to score as much.

 

 

What do you guys think?

[TD Ryan2 316]

What do you guys think?

 

that you're a whiny Chargers fan.

[cblue 0]

that you're a whiny Chargers fan.

 

 

 

 

 

[tenaciousb 0]

IMO.....

 

That balanced, methodical style is what won superbowl titles. In terms of Superbowl victories, that pass-first style was a complet failure. The balanced attack is what won him superbowls. I think it is a definate possibility that the *pats could go back to that balanced attack. Which means a drop in Brady's stats.

 

Part of the reason that Marino and Manning experienced a drop in their stats after their monster years is because all that passing didn't win a superbowl. Passing isn't the key to winning a superbowl. I think defense and ball control plays a bigger part. If the *pats feel the same way then Brady's stats will go down.

 

 

So getting to the Super Bowl ,finishing 18-1 and losing in the SB in a game they should have won with a pass first offense in your opinion was a complete failure?

[Me_2006 14]

that you're a whiny Chargers fan.

[Me_2006 14]

So getting to the Super Bowl ,finishing 18-1 and losing in the SB in a game they should have won with a pass first offense in your opinion was a complete failure?

 

 

yes.

[cblue 0]

So getting to the Super Bowl ,finishing 18-1 and losing in the SB in a game they should have won with a pass first offense in your opinion was a complete failure?

 

 

It'a all about winning Superbowls, not going undefeated in the regular season or haviong a great record. I think that the *pats would trade their record for a ring.

[mr.shitty 0]

mid to upper 30s, id guess

[TD Ryan2 316]

It'a all about winning Superbowls, not going undefeated in the regular season or haviong a great record. I think that the *pats would trade their record for a ring.

 

you are correct.

 

everything NE tries to do is about versatility, being able to play any style of football, adapting to each game, each opponent, each situation within the game.

 

NE would rather be a balanced team that wins a SB than an 18-1 passing juggernaut.

 

it's that way on defense.

and they'd like it that way on offense.

 

they're keeping 5 RBs on the roster for a reason this year.

[9-Route 0]

interesting data:

 

manning's 6 season avg prior to his 49TDs was 28TDs....he indeed posted 28TDs the following yr.

 

marino's 7 season avg to start his career (among which was his 48TD yr) was 31TDs...he posted 30TDs the following yr.

 

brady's 6 season avg prior to his 50TDs was 25TDs........

[cblue 0]

interesting data:

 

manning's 6 season avg prior to his 49TDs was 28TDs....he indeed posted 28TDs the following yr.

 

marino's 7 season avg to start his career (among which was his 48TD yr) was 31TDs...he posted 30TDs the following yr.

 

brady's 6 season avg prior to his 50TDs was 25TDs........

 

Nice research, I never would have thought to look that up.

[9-Route 0]

Nice research, I never would have thought to look that up.

 

thanks.

 

yeah, i mean, this topic can be sliced a million ways, and we ffers can account for a million factors. but, the ultimate deciding factor will be belichick's ego: if he wants to balance, he'll balance; if he wants to say 'fock 'em', he'll do that as well.

 

hell, he may want to eclipse the brees 440 completions record and bledsoe 690 attempts record!!

[GhostofMeanMachine99 1]

as a Pats homer, I think you'll see Brady come back to the mid-30s in TDs.

 

Why? there's a few reasons.

 

1. The Oline.

Won't be as good as last year. They were dominant last year; ESPN goons were getting ready to call them the greatest Oline of all time. They are already having some trouble in camp this year. Line depth is a concern for NE and they won't all stay healthy.

 

I wouldn't exactly say they were dominant. It's easy to block your guy when the QB's in a three step drop in a three/four wide set.

 

Don't get me wrong, they were deserving of their awards last year because the offense was unreal. However, any lineman will tell you that it's much easier to pass block as opposed to run block. The issues start to pop up when the offense becomes pass happy and the line loses their aggressive nature. Lineman want to run block and smash people in the mouth.

 

I think Brady's numbers will come back down a bit only because in the NFL, defense eventually catch up. You can guarantee every team in the league will figure out that offense. Always happens.

 

In regards to ESPN: they're strictly playing to the New England/New York fan base. Ask anyone outside that area about ESPN, and they'll tell you besides Brett Favre, they knob slob all over everything that's related to NYC and Boston.

[karmarooster 0]

IMO brady will have somewhere between 30-42 TDs this year. but he is a lock to throw for 4,000 yards again.

 

it does seem very logical that they will run the ball a bit more, in fact its obvious when you see that they are 4 deep at RB with maroney, jordan, faulk, morris, not even mentioning the FB evans.

 

the problem is that its difficult to draft any of their RBs because you don't know who will get the carries, or when. lets say its week 6 or something and maroney is out, and morris has been ineffective, then you could with a small bit of confidence start lamont jordan. however without something like this happening, i cant draft any of them.

 

what about welker? does everyone think he is in store for another 100/1100 yard season? its not flashy, but he's a great asset in a PPR league because of consistency.

[jerryskids 7,085]

Voted 30+. He'll in general go back to career average, but he has better weapons, so I gave him an uptick. I'll guess 33 TDs.

[Four More Beers 0]

Marino did throw 44 TDs in 1986. It's not like he didn't come close to matching his record season soon after.

[9-Route 0]

Marino did throw 44 TDs in 1986. It's not like he didn't come close to matching his record season soon after.

 

soon after and immediately after is the key: 44 vs 30.

[KSB2424 3,173]

soon after and immediately after is the key: 44 vs 30.

What Marino did 20 years ago has nothing to do with how good or bad Tom Brady will play in in 2008. HTH

 

In related news I pissed at 6:00pm today. At exactly 7:00pm I heard thunder. Therefore everytime I take a piss exactly one hour after it will thunder. See how stupid that logic sounds.

[Me_2006 14]

What Marino did 20 years ago has nothing to do with how good or bad Tom Brady will play in in 2008. HTH

 

In related news I pissed at 6:00pm today. At exactly 7:00pm I heard thunder. Therefore everytime I take a piss exactly one hour after it will thunder. See how stupid that logic sounds.

Terrible comparison, but you knew that.

 

 

More like, that comet passed for the first time in 20 years last night. Last two times it went by, it's been a full moon the night after. Sure enough, full moon tonight again.

 

 

 

 

Anyway, the point is, record breaking seasons are anomalies, not trends. To assume a repeat of something that has only happened ONCE before, is insane. Especially when every example of the passing record being broken tends to point to the opposite. A good season is guaranteed, with those weapons, his talent, that line and that team, he'll be one of the top 3 passers almost for sure. To draft him in a spot expecting 50 TDs again is a gamble based on nothing more than hope. The risk and evidence that it won't happen is far greater than the pure speculation that it will.

[KSB2424 3,173]

Terrible comparison, but you knew that.

More like, that comet passed for the first time in 20 years last night. Last two times it went by, it's been a full moon the night after. Sure enough, full moon tonight again.

Anyway, the point is, record breaking seasons are anomalies, not trends. To assume a repeat of something that has only happened ONCE before, is insane. Especially when every example of the passing record being broken tends to point to the opposite. A good season is guaranteed, with those weapons, his talent, that line and that team, he'll be one of the top 3 passers almost for sure. To draft him in a spot expecting 50 TDs again is a gamble based on nothing more than hope. The risk and evidence that it won't happen is far greater than the pure speculation that it will.

I don't think anyone expects Brady to throw for 50+td's. However if you don't think he will throw for 4000 and 40 TDs (first round worthy numbers) ONLY because of what Marino and Manning did in their year after record breaking years then you are dumb.

 

If you came on here and made a case about how Brady was gonna have only 28 TD's this year because his WR's were <insert reason here> or his coaches had a game plan of <insert reason here> or his offensive line was not gonna hold up because of <insert reason here> then I might buck up and listen. But don't give some bullshit reason like that.

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

interesting data:

 

manning's 6 season avg prior to his 49TDs was 28TDs....he indeed posted 28TDs the following yr.

 

marino's 7 season avg to start his career (among which was his 48TD yr) was 31TDs...he posted 30TDs the following yr.

 

brady's 6 season avg prior to his 50TDs was 25TDs........

 

 

I heard on a sports radio show that when a QB breaks the TD record, the next year they don't crack 30. I think your data

bears that out nicely.

 

BUT............I'm guessing mid to upper thirties. Remember we're talking about 2 of the biggest egos in the game right now. Brady and Belichick. No telling what they're thinking.

[9-Route 0]

What Marino did 20 years ago has nothing to do with how good or bad Tom Brady will play in in 2008. HTH

 

In related news I pissed at 6:00pm today. At exactly 7:00pm I heard thunder. Therefore everytime I take a piss exactly one hour after it will thunder. See how stupid that logic sounds.

 

it was in reference to his post regarding my previous post.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

In regards to ESPN: they're strictly playing to the New England/New York fan base. Ask anyone outside that area about ESPN, and they'll tell you besides Brett Favre, they knob slob all over everything that's related to NYC and Boston.

 

Yes.....and golf. NYC, Boston and Tiger get the ESPN muckity mucks nice and hard.

 

In response to the topic, Brady throws for 35+

[cblue 0]

I don't think anyone expects Brady to throw for 50+td's. However if you don't think he will throw for 4000 and 40 TDs (first round worthy numbers) ONLY because of what Marino and Manning did in their year after record breaking years then you are dumb.

 

If you came on here and made a case about how Brady was gonna have only 28 TD's this year because his WR's were <insert reason here> or his coaches had a game plan of <insert reason here> or his offensive line was not gonna hold up because of <insert reason here> then I might buck up and listen. But don't give some bullshit reason like that.

 

It doesn't make any sense to project Brady to throw for 4000 and 40 TD's. What are you basing that on? ONE year's performance?

 

There are many more reasons why he won't throw for 4000 and 40 TD's. Just because he threw for 4800 and 50 TD's in 2007 doesn't mean it would be easy for him to throw for 4000 and 40 TD's. What is your logic?

 

Could Brady throw for 4000 and 40 TD's? It is possible. But the smart money is on the under. Your money is on the over.

[cheeseboy 0]

So getting to the Super Bowl ,finishing 18-1 and losing in the SB in a game they should have won with a pass first offense in your opinion was a complete failure?

Absolutely...

 

I mean it's good year to be a fan, and you have good memories, but bottom line is only one thing matters and should be accepted (for elite teams, not the rebuilders or Bears). The Lombardi trophy. The Halas/Hunt trophies are for losers 50% of the time, and shouldn't be sitting at the entrance of your team's HOF..."good" and "close" are for losers. You play for the Super Bowl, nothing else.

 

I went through the 70's-80's when getting to the playoff's and winning seasons were what the Packers hoped for, when 10-6 in '89 seemed amazing and the Magic Man seemed like a great QB...it's only in retrospect that you see settling for anything other than Championships sets you up to be pathetic.

 

Now, 18-1 isn't pathetic, but it's not much more important in the scope of the things than 7-9...either way you didn't win the Super Bowl and it was a disappointing season.

[PackYourNut 47]

I don't think anyone expects Brady to throw for 50+td's. However if you don't think he will throw for 4000 and 40 TDs (first round worthy numbers) ONLY because of what Marino and Manning did in their year after record breaking years then you are dumb.

 

If you came on here and made a case about how Brady was gonna have only 28 TD's this year because his WR's were <insert reason here> or his coaches had a game plan of <insert reason here> or his offensive line was not gonna hold up because of <insert reason here> then I might buck up and listen. But don't give some bullshit reason like that.

 

 

If you think every event is random I would suggest you read up on some history. There are cycles for EVERYTHING, that is how the world works. Discounting past events as having no bearing on the future/current events is ignorant at best. You'd be the guy that would try to conquer Russia during the winter and fail, again!

[edjr 6,898]

that you're a whiny Chargers fan.

 

 

BURN!

[edjr 6,898]

The answer is 25+

 

why?

 

because 50 would be 25+

[they call me chester 0]

To those saying he'll regress to pre 2007 numbers are failing to take into consideration a couple things.

 

Wes Welker

Randy Moss

 

When you gain two targets of that caliber you throw out old data.

 

The offensive line is a concern but not as much of one as with other QBs due to Brady's quick release

I think the decreased caliber of the line will have it's greatest impact on his INT total with him making more throws under a bit of pressure.

 

I think a 20% regression is pretty reasonable expectations...

 

4000 / 40 / 14

[mikeso 0]

4,100 yards or so.

39 TDs, 9 INTs.

i hope at least 20 of them goes to randy moss