A brief history of Mel Kiper

[cblue 0]

altho I feel like I have never really cared much for your attitude on these boards, I do definately agree with you on this one.

 

People spend wayyy too much time worrying about combine numbers and potential instead of if a kid is just a flat out player.

There are certain things you should be able to tell about a player from watching game tape and sometimes those things need to be valued more than a 40 time or the bench press.

 

Id really like to see scouts and GM's focus more on the body of work a player had in college as well as their competition.

 

*** as Flahawker said, everything does go into the hopper. I just feel too much emphasis is put into measurables.

 

ala Drew Brees, J. Rice or countless other NFL players. Warren Sapp admitted that he couldn't bench 225lbs more than 20 times at his combine. He would have been downgraded severley in todays environment.

 

I wish someone would make list of how ofter the guy with the fastest 40 time at the combine does nothing in the NFL. Or the guy who benches the most does absolutely nothing. I would like to see that list.

[FlaHawker 24]

ala Drew Brees, J. Rice or countless other NFL players. Warren Sapp admitted that he couldn't bench 225lbs more than 20 times at his combine. He would have been downgraded severley in todays environment.

 

I wish someone would make list of how ofter the guy with the fastest 40 time at the combine does nothing in the NFL. Or the guy who benches the most does absolutely nothing. I would like to see that list.

The Sapp example is a good one. Sapp was still a first round pick, so the fact that he only benched 225 20 times hurt him but didn't kill him. But there was another reason why Sapp dropped in the 1st round as well. Drug allegations! If I am a GM and I see a beast on tape who has all-pro written all over him, but on the other hand his measurables aren't what they should be AND he has some drug rumors hanging over him, I'm taking a big chance drafting this guy. How do I simply go by the tape and disregard the other measurables? I can't. These GMs have accountability, and if a GM takes a guy like this who turns into Darrell Russell instead of Warren Sapp he gets fired. GMs simply can't draft players based on game film.

 

Now if a player like Sapp drops to a certain draft slot (or another player drops to a certain round) then the risk/reward fator comes into play and you might be able to gamble a bit more, but more oftne than not taking those kinds of risks ususally do not pan out.

 

 

As for Rice, his 40 times were questioned but he was still a 1st round pick. You can't say everyone passed on Rice becaue of his measurables. Teams have needs and some of those teams may not have needed a WR. I believe only 2 other WRs were chosen over Rice, Al Toon and Eddie Brown. I mean we can look back at any draft and say how could player X slide so far or how on Earth did plyer Y get taken so high. I mean aren't we hearing similar arguments against Crabtree that were there when Rice came out--40 time issues, caliber of opposition?

 

For some though to make definitive statements about any player is silly. The draft is a gamble. Teams spend hours and hours of time and resources studying every ounce of these players lives, and then draft day comes and you take Art Schlichter, Lawrence Phiilips, Ryan Leaf, Blair Thomas, or Tony Mandarich. I guarentee that all these guys looked grt on film. Teams, however, ignored the other measurables and intangibles and gambled. They lost.

[madd futher mucker 36]

That's partially because many GMs are too afraid to lose the pay and prestige of their jobs. So quite a few are inclined to favor the guys with the 'measureables' - size and speed - because if they bust, the GM isn't near as likely to lose his job - he picked a 'consensus guy - as he would if he picked a polished, high-effort guy in the 1st round who might be considered "too small" or "too slow". Beanie Wells will almost surely be a 1st round pick in this year's draft; does he have a better chance of NFL success than a high motor polished runner like Cedrick Peerman? IMO he has a far higher chance to bust than Peerman (who will likely be a 4th round pick) does.

 

Small guys and slow guys are generally under-picked by at least a full round relative to big and fast guys who may have lesser talent and lesser 'heart'. For every 1st rounder who turned out to be a bust, I can cite numerous examples - Steve Smith (3rd rd - too small), Anquan Boldin (end of 2nd round - too slow), MJD (end of 2nd round - too slow) who starred in the NFL. The real exceptional GMs and talent evaluators/decision-makers - guys like Gil Brandt and Bill Parcells don't make their decisions on "measureables" but strictly on character and what they see on the game tapes.

 

And then of course there are even owners who over-rule their scouts if a player doesn't measure-up to certain pre-set minimums for size or speed for the position they are playing (and Mr Al Davis isn't the only one).

[Groundhog 24]

That's partially because many GMs are too afraid to lose the pay and prestige of their jobs. So quite a few are inclined to favor the guys with the 'measureables' - size and speed - because if they bust, the GM isn't near as likely to lose his job - he picked a 'consensus guy - as he would if he picked a polished, high-effort guy in the 1st round who might be considered "too small" or "too slow".

 

I think it's more the scouts than the GMs who are responsible for this. Yes, the GMs make the picks, but they do have to rely on the scouts and coaches for putting together their shortlist of candidates.

[jgcrawfish 232]

Ok so Thomas, was better than 5th rd value, Holmes was nothing more than 3rd and Strait was a can't miss prospect based on your evaluations. So your point is? This is a thread bashing Kiper for his draft evaluations. You have actually just proven why Kiper can't be bashed. No one can really predict what these guys are gonna do no matter if you have seen 30 games or 1 game.

 

I hate to break this to you, but potential, intangibles, 40 times, game film, it all goes in the hopper. You can't just look at "game production" because like I have said, maybe a player who has a ton of potential was in the wrong system? Maybe the coach didn't like him and so on and so on. But I'm not suprised you don't get this

 

Link to where I have compared Crabtree to Calvin, AJ, or Fitz personally. I am on record as saying that I have not seen a ton of Crabtree games, but knowing the Seahawks have a weakness at WR (even with TJ), I would be all for the Hawks drafting him. Maybe he busts, maybe he doesn't. Maybe he's the next Calvin, maybe he 's the next David Terrell. I don't claim to know. Personally, I don't give a flying fock if you are right or wrong about Crabtree because basically I don't give a flying fock about you or your opinions.

 

wow, for a guy who says he "basically I don't give a flying fock about you or your opinions" you sure go out of your way to question them.

[jgcrawfish 232]

altho I feel like I have never really cared much for your attitude on these boards, I do definately agree with you on this one.

 

People spend wayyy too much time worrying about combine numbers and potential instead of if a kid is just a flat out player.

There are certain things you should be able to tell about a player from watching game tape and sometimes those things need to be valued more than a 40 time or the bench press.

 

Id really like to see scouts and GM's focus more on the body of work a player had in college as well as their competition.

 

*** as Flahawker said, everything does go into the hopper. I just feel too much emphasis is put into measurables.

 

my attitude on the boards has changed a bit and I've endeavored to keep things football related for the most part, other than the occasional pushing of Flahawkers buttons (which I somehow can do just by posting ). People get enamored with someone running 4.35 in shorts while forgetting that the difference between a 4.35 and 4.40 is like 1/2 inch, and pads and the fact that you rarely ever get to run 40 yrds in a straight line in the NFL makes a huge difference. Since he was brought up, I saw Drew Brees play in high school and you could see back then that he had "it". Kid was a leader and scooped his team up on his shoulders, took the blame even when it wasn't his fault and passed out the accolades when he was the one who deserved to have them. Got knocked for stature and a weak arm. Crazy. Other than seeing Robiskie, Harvin, Maclin and Crabtree my experience with the WR this year is limited, but of those I can tell you that despite the hype I don't see Crabtree being the difference maker people are making him out to be, particularly early in his career. His production in 2 years was off the charts, but I see a system WR with limited experience who is going to have issues adjusting and doesn't have the physical skill set which will make up for until he does adjust.

[enis_44 0]

The clock has started on Mike Williams's 5 years out of the league.

That Hall of Fame induction came sooner than we thought!

[NFLisGreat79 0]

you went out of your way to post in writing about his most notrious blunders and misses while failing to mention any of the correct and smart calls he made. In the negative light of your post, it's not hard to see why someone would think you were bashing.

 

Haha the OP just got owned. Mel Kiper is just doing his job, sometimes he is spot on , sometimes he is way off. The OP is the tool . Quit the hating and let the man do his job. No one is perfect

 

 

[Melissa Stark 1]

A brief history of Mel Kiper............ 's Knee.

 

 

That Marshall Faulk stroy has been on the main page so long, I just saw it in this thread title

[FlaHawker 24]

my attitude on the boards has changed a bit and I've endeavored to keep things football related for the most part, other than the occasional pushing of Flahawkers buttons (which I somehow can do just by posting ).

Push my buttons? Hardly. I just love calling you out after you make focking ridiculous claims that you knew a guy was better than his draft spot after watching one game and other such BS.

[The Moz 69]

Kiper has just been around forever

 

whether a player is going to be good in the NFL IMO ya lok at 5 things

 

-- Most important can his body hold up for a 16 game season? If they are missing game soften in college chances are they miss more than they play in the NFL

 

--- How did they look against top level competition -- If a QB against a top flight pass D , if a RB against a great run D , if a OL against a great DL an vice versa.

 

-- Is he amongst the fastest game speed player at his position - NBA you can't teach height - NFL ya can't teach speed.

 

--- Is he a student of the game - ie. is he a dumbass or does he have some semblance of a brain - game intelligence is the most underated asset I think in the NFL

 

-- Does he play like he is hungry / motivated

[Apu Nahasapeemapetilon 0]

These stats that say so and so got 7 out of 32 picks correct are meaningless. If you projected Stafford to go #1 this year, but the Lions take an OT, you are likely to miss 7 of the next 8 picks. It flows from pick to pick, so getting 25% really isn't that bad.

 

Kiper nor any of these other analysts are really that bad at understanding an individual players skills, strengths, and weaknesses. But what he misses is how they will perform on the team that drafted them. And what almost nobody can read is their heart and soul. These players, generally dumb though they are, are well versed in what to say to scouts, so they usually come across decent looking.

 

Akili Smith may have been average if he went to a veteran team instead of the Bungles. Brady may have sucked if he went to the Bungles.

 

You can't only look at a players skills...so much depends on the situation they go into (coaches, front office, surrounding players, schemes, etc).

[Portis26 0]

He cant be right 100% of the time.. so cut him some slack

 

The 1 thing I do like is in the late rounds when they call someone names, he rambles off 10 things about the guy... not everyone can do that. I know he has notes.. I think McShay career came on only becuase they needed someone else to counter Kipers points...

 

Member of the Mel Kiper Fan Club,

Portis26

[jgcrawfish 232]

Push my buttons? Hardly. I just love calling you out after you make focking ridiculous claims that you knew a guy was better than his draft spot after watching one game and other such BS.

 

Hey Francis, here's another one for you...Stephen McGee (Texas A&M). Watched a few more than one game but the kid will be a solid NFL QB in a couple of years in the right situation and an absolute bargain compared to Stafford and Sanchez.

[FlaHawker 24]

Hey Francis, here's another one for you...Stephen McGee (Texas A&M). Watched a few more than one game but the kid will be a solid NFL QB in a couple of years in the right situation and an absolute bargain compared to Stafford and Sanchez.

Wow! And to think 32 NFL teams are letting your scouting talent rot on a fantasy football message board.

[listen2me 23 1,544]

He cant be right 100% of the time.. so cut him some slack

 

The 1 thing I do like is in the late rounds when they call someone names, he rambles off 10 things about the guy... not everyone can do that. I know he has notes.. I think McShay career came on only becuase they needed someone else to counter Kipers points...

 

Member of the Mel Kiper Fan Club,

Portis26

 

Mayock is 10 times better than Kiper and actually played the game.