Value Based Drafting Formula?

[lexdizzle 1]

I have started messing with it for my 12 team ppr league and have noticed that the value for QB really high this year. the leage i'm in uses 4pts for td and 25yds= 1pt for qb and standard 1pt per rec wr/rb ppr scoring. The formula suggests the top 7 qbs are gone within the first 35 picks. Have any of you used any of the value based drafting formulas and how much success have you had?

 

Oh and my projections i used are an avg from here and fftoolbox

[giraldi02 470]

Quite simply...I will never draft a QB in the first three rounds. If seven of the top 35 picks are QB's...and many mock drafts currently seem to follow this trend (generally around five to seven in the first 3 rounds)...then there is a lot of elite talent at the other positions that I can snatch instead. Sure, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are consistent forces at QB, but the other positions are reduced as a result of grabbing a player like that so high.

 

Which team appears to have a lower floor from it's first four picks?

 

Aaron Rodgers

Jamaal Charles

Marques Colston

Steve Smith (Car)

 

Steven Jackson

Larry Fitzgerald

Sidney Rice

Pierre Thomas

 

 

Granted, some people can make it work and find talent in the mid-later rounds in positions that were abandoned early...but I'd rather take a dominant player at RB/WR and take a consistent QB w/ upside at a much cheaper price.

 

Last year, Brett Favre/Matt Schaub/Joe Flacco all could be taken from the 7th round or later. This year, Flacco again(why?!?), Kolb, Cutler, Eli, McNabb are all available at a discounted rate...and all have moderate to good fantasy floors.

 

There is a lot of depth at QB. If you get stuck with 2nd/3rd tier QB's, you can still win your league. However, if you're fielding 2nd/3rd tier RB/WR's...you might find it harder.

[Boston Three Party 6]

My league is bonus heavy and 6pt TD's (all positions mainly) but I don't believe drafting a stud QB will win you the gold. As long as you have a mid-tier I think you're better off going run heavy or wideout heavy. But everyone has their reasons.

 

Guy in my league won it with Favre last year - and it was Rice that really solidified his title. I'm trying to find the waiver gems before they blow up this year. I think Mike Wallace is pure WR2 gold, and you can grab him super late. Same with Big Ben (once he's back in form mid-season)

[PATSSOX 22]

Over in the little discussion about Jamal Charles people are saying pick him in 1st or 2nd round at latest. Now that is definetly not value drafting thats for dam sure. Thats more like HIGH RISK and HIGH REWARD drafting

[lexdizzle 1]

Quite simply...I will never draft a QB in the first three rounds. If seven of the top 35 picks are QB's...and many mock drafts currently seem to follow this trend (generally around five to seven in the first 3 rounds)...then there is a lot of elite talent at the other positions that I can snatch instead. Sure, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are consistent forces at QB, but the other positions are reduced as a result of grabbing a player like that so high.

 

Which team appears to have a lower floor from it's first four picks?

 

Aaron Rodgers

Jamaal Charles

Marques Colston

Steve Smith (Car)

 

Steven Jackson

Larry Fitzgerald

Sidney Rice

Pierre Thomas

 

 

Granted, some people can make it work and find talent in the mid-later rounds in positions that were abandoned early...but I'd rather take a dominant player at RB/WR and take a consistent QB w/ upside at a much cheaper price.

 

Last year, Brett Favre/Matt Schaub/Joe Flacco all could be taken from the 7th round or later. This year, Flacco again(why?!?), Kolb, Cutler, Eli, McNabb are all available at a discounted rate...and all have moderate to good fantasy floors.

 

There is a lot of depth at QB. If you get stuck with 2nd/3rd tier QB's, you can still win your league. However, if you're fielding 2nd/3rd tier RB/WR's...you might find it harder.

 

I checked against the VBD formula i have in the scenarion you listed the team that chose sj/fitz/rice/thomas had a vbd value of 259 and the rodgers/charles/colston smith combo was 241. so in theory for this scenario the sj/fitz/rice/thomas would be better.

[Cara 0]

I'm going to throw this out here and people can take it for what it is worth, which to some may be nothing. I have played in leagues at Quest, MFL, RTSports, WCOFF, AFFL, and several others. I have yet to see anyone win a league with a 3rd tier QB, especially in leagues where all TD's are equal in value or in leagues where interceptions lead to a loss of points.

 

I have seen VERY few league Championships won with Tier 2 QB's, but it does happen. I will never take a QB in the first or second round, absolutely never. I will take one in round 3 if I have a late pick or early in the 4th if I have an early pick. Never any sooner, but rarely do I hit round 5 without a QB.

 

If you go to almost any site and look over their leagues, or the league you are in, it is rarely won by a guy throwing out a QB like Jason Campbell, Matt Cassell, or even some of the slightly better fantasy QB's like Chad Henne or Joe Flacco (both could be decent this season)

 

I drafted in a league last night and took a QB late in round three. It is a no-trade league, so having a stud QB is rather important.

 

I'm all for taking a QB anytime after mid round three.

[Gepetto 1,013]

I'm going to throw this out here and people can take it for what it is worth, which to some may be nothing. I have played in leagues at Quest, MFL, RTSports, WCOFF, AFFL, and several others. I have yet to see anyone win a league with a 3rd tier QB, especially in leagues where all TD's are equal in value or in leagues where interceptions lead to a loss of points.

 

I have seen VERY few league Championships won with Tier 2 QB's, but it does happen. I will never take a QB in the first or second round, absolutely never. I will take one in round 3 if I have a late pick or early in the 4th if I have an early pick. Never any sooner, but rarely do I hit round 5 without a QB.

 

If you go to almost any site and look over their leagues, or the league you are in, it is rarely won by a guy throwing out a QB like Jason Campbell, Matt Cassell, or even some of the slightly better fantasy QB's like Chad Henne or Joe Flacco (both could be decent this season)

 

I drafted in a league last night and took a QB late in round three. It is a no-trade league, so having a stud QB is rather important.

 

I'm all for taking a QB anytime after mid round three.

 

I appreciate you sharing that. However I've never drafted a QB in the first four rounds and I almost always have one of the top teams in my leagues. I wouldn't want any of those QBs you suggest either. I draft a QB in round 5 at the earliest, usually 7th or sometimes even later of free agency. I have a top 5 often better QB every year. A few years ago Palmer in the 7th round and he broke out for a huge year. Romo a few years ago in the 5th or later in more than one league and he was 2nd overall. Kurt Warner two years ago. Favre and Schaub last year. Top 5 or better every time. I hit on an elite QB every time taking them late. It's not even hard. I drafted Favre in two leagues for this upcoming year and kept Schaub in one as a round 9 keeper. And I got Kolb late in another. I'm in two leagues and I have Favre & Schaub in one, and Favre and Kolb in the other. Jay Cutler can be had late and should be great this year. Eli too. Maybe even McNabb. I definitely like Cutler, Favre and Kolb for this 2010 season.

[FlaHawker 24]

I'm going to throw this out here and people can take it for what it is worth, which to some may be nothing. I have played in leagues at Quest, MFL, RTSports, WCOFF, AFFL, and several others. I have yet to see anyone win a league with a 3rd tier QB, especially in leagues where all TD's are equal in value or in leagues where interceptions lead to a loss of points.

 

I have seen VERY few league Championships won with Tier 2 QB's, but it does happen. I will never take a QB in the first or second round, absolutely never. I will take one in round 3 if I have a late pick or early in the 4th if I have an early pick. Never any sooner, but rarely do I hit round 5 without a QB.

 

If you go to almost any site and look over their leagues, or the league you are in, it is rarely won by a guy throwing out a QB like Jason Campbell, Matt Cassell, or even some of the slightly better fantasy QB's like Chad Henne or Joe Flacco (both could be decent this season)

 

I drafted in a league last night and took a QB late in round three. It is a no-trade league, so having a stud QB is rather important.

 

I'm all for taking a QB anytime after mid round three.

How many championships in the high stakes arena have you won with that strategy? Just curious, not trying to be a wise guy.

[FlaHawker 24]

I appreciate you sharing that. However I've never drafted a QB in the first four rounds and I almost always have one of the top teams in my leagues. I wouldn't want any of those QBs you suggest either. I draft a QB in round 5 at the earliest, usually 7th or sometimes even later of free agency. I have a top 5 often better QB every year. A few years ago Palmer in the 7th round and he broke out for a huge year. Romo a few years ago in the 5th or later in more than one league and he was 2nd overall. Kurt Warner two years ago. Favre and Schaub last year. Top 5 or better every time. I hit on an elite QB every time taking them late. It's not even hard. I drafted Favre in two leagues for this upcoming year and kept Schaub in one as a round 9 keeper. And I got Kolb late in another. I'm in two leagues and I have Favre & Schaub in one, and Favre and Kolb in the other. Jay Cutler can be had late and should be great this year. Eli too. Maybe even McNabb. I definitely like Cutler, Favre and Kolb for this 2010 season.

But what is the comp level in your leagues?

[Gepetto 1,013]

But what is the comp level in your leagues?

 

Two fftoday geek leagues! Both 12 team ppr. The Palmer pick way back was a local league. Oh yea I took Cutler when he had his breakout year too.

[giraldi02 470]

To Cara,

 

Look, we're not advocating taking a QB that is of minuscule talent level. But it reiterates the Value Based Drafting formula.

 

Will a QB taken in the 7th round perform THAT much worse than a QB taken in the first three rounds?

 

And, the subsequent follow-up question is...will a RB/WR taken in the first three rounds be THAT much better than a RB/WR taken later?

 

Case in point. Kevin Kolb this year. He already has a lot of positive aspects in that his top three receivers (Jackson, Maclin, Avant) and tight end (Celek) are all young explosive playmakers. Andy Reid historically throws the ball as much if not more than the majority of the league as well. He has a good backfield in Weaver, McCoy, and Bell. So, with the talent around him, does his inexperience really make him five-six rounds worse than a player than Tony Romo? It's possible, but not likely, and I'm willing to gamble on the chances that I draft Kolb and Roethlisberger in rounds 7/8 but take top tier running backs and receivers early on. By the time the season is over, Kolb will most likely be a top 2nd tier QB, possibly a low end tier 1 QB.

 

 

If you can pull off drafting the rest of your team with sleepers, undervalued talent, and high ceiling guys later in the draft, then drafting a top tier QB early on makes sense. But you generally have to hit on a few players rather than one undervalued QB. I speak from only my personal experience of winning leagues by my strategy. Everyone does things differently, and thus different drafting strategies.

[Boston Three Party 6]

Over in the little discussion about Jamal Charles people are saying pick him in 1st or 2nd round at latest. Now that is definetly not value drafting thats for dam sure. Thats more like HIGH RISK and HIGH REWARD drafting

 

I'd go Greene over him in round 1 - IF I am in the say - 7 or 8 hole - and I don't want Sjax OR Mendenhall. (But if that's the case - I could go Moss/Wayne/etc. and grab Greene in the 2nd..)

 

I am kind of high on taking Charles in the 2nd as my #2 (high risk of course). I mean, I smoked the James Davis hype last year, but this is obviously different given the stats.

 

As for QB's - I'm mocking already to Kolb/Favre/Schaub - I will try some mocks going QB early but I refuse to be stuck with another Turner/R. Brown/Mendenhall epic fail of a roster this year. I also rocked Brees/Brady/Manning early last year and it bit me when the RB injuries hit and I lost to McRib. Just sad.

[casper87 0]

I'm going to throw this out here and people can take it for what it is worth, which to some may be nothing. I have played in leagues at Quest, MFL, RTSports, WCOFF, AFFL, and several others. I have yet to see anyone win a league with a 3rd tier QB, especially in leagues where all TD's are equal in value or in leagues where interceptions lead to a loss of points.

 

I have seen VERY few league Championships won with Tier 2 QB's, but it does happen. I will never take a QB in the first or second round, absolutely never. I will take one in round 3 if I have a late pick or early in the 4th if I have an early pick. Never any sooner, but rarely do I hit round 5 without a QB.

 

If you go to almost any site and look over their leagues, or the league you are in, it is rarely won by a guy throwing out a QB like Jason Campbell, Matt Cassell, or even some of the slightly better fantasy QB's like Chad Henne or Joe Flacco (both could be decent this season)

 

I drafted in a league last night and took a QB late in round three. It is a no-trade league, so having a stud QB is rather important.

 

I'm all for taking a QB anytime after mid round three.

 

I am going to have to agree with the above. Recently, I have been stuck finishing in the 3-6 slot in my BIG money league where the competition is heavy. This league has been together since 92 and every manager pretty much knows their stuff. I have been thinking about what I can do better at the draft and like some on this post, I always hated to be that guy who drafted Manning, Brees, or Brady in the early rounds. I would instead draft a RB or WR thinking that I could stockpile those positions and maybe later get a QB that would be serviceable. Over the past few years, the winner of our league has always had a stud at QB--Brees last year. Manning and Brady the years before that. Here's what I have figured --I have no stats to back this up, but it makes some sense to me. In our league we only start 1 QB. (like most leagues) If your QB doesn't score, there isn't another QB that will be able to make up for his poor numbers. For the RB's, you always have at least one more to help out,(sometimes more if you flex--we don't) For your WR's you have 2 more to help out. Hence QB is the only skill position that has only one slot on gameday and your QB MUST score. Also, I may be wrong here but I think it holds (mostly) true--you don't find a bunch of QB's on the waiver wire or your bench that will be gems. RB's and WR's there are always a few. I think I saw some stat somewhere that showed that of the top 20 RB's only 11(it might have been 9) made the top twenty the following year. I doubt this is the case for QB's The top 5 QB's every year seem the same and the top 10 probably retains 7 for the next year. Therefore I am going to follow my advice above and draft a stud at QB. In my league that means I will probably have to draft him in the mid/early 2nd round.

[Zackattack 0]

I'm going to throw this out here and people can take it for what it is worth, which to some may be nothing. I have played in leagues at Quest, MFL, RTSports, WCOFF, AFFL, and several others. I have yet to see anyone win a league with a 3rd tier QB, especially in leagues where all TD's are equal in value or in leagues where interceptions lead to a loss of points.

 

I have seen VERY few league Championships won with Tier 2 QB's, but it does happen. I will never take a QB in the first or second round, absolutely never. I will take one in round 3 if I have a late pick or early in the 4th if I have an early pick. Never any sooner, but rarely do I hit round 5 without a QB.

 

If you go to almost any site and look over their leagues, or the league you are in, it is rarely won by a guy throwing out a QB like Jason Campbell, Matt Cassell, or even some of the slightly better fantasy QB's like Chad Henne or Joe Flacco (both could be decent this season)

 

I drafted in a league last night and took a QB late in round three. It is a no-trade league, so having a stud QB is rather important.

 

I'm all for taking a QB anytime after mid round three.

 

I am gonna have to look this over and think about it real hard before draft day. I won 2 out of 4 leagues and my QB's were Rodgers and Brady. I had Brees and Manning in the other leagues. I finished 1,1,2 and 4 in those leagues last year. Alot of other things came into play.

 

I also took alot of WR's early last year. I can tell you that you better grab atleast 1 wr in the first 3 rounds.

[davidbostonisgood 2]

I have started messing with it for my 12 team ppr league and have noticed that the value for QB really high this year. the leage i'm in uses 4pts for td and 25yds= 1pt for qb and standard 1pt per rec wr/rb ppr scoring. The formula suggests the top 7 qbs are gone within the first 35 picks. Have any of you used any of the value based drafting formulas and how much success have you had?

Oh and my projections i used are an avg from here and fftoolbox

Wow. Thirteen replies (now 14) and nobody even scratches the surface of their use of 'Value Based Drafting (formulas)'. I came in here to read something worth reading. Is anyone going to stay on topic and answer the OP's question?

[Zackattack 0]

Wow. Thirteen replies (now 14) and nobody even scratches the surface of their use of 'Value Based Drafting (formulas)'. I came in here to read something worth reading. Is anyone going to stay on topic and answer the OP's question?

 

I have read up on it and used it for years.The main objective is to take the best player available every round. I use it but also may have a strategy like grab 2 WR's in the first 4 round etc. You have to be ready to draft "on the fly" on a live draft. If 6 teams ahead of you all take RB's don't follow the trend if you are stuck with poor value. I do find that you have to draft to fill out your starting lineup (k and D not inc) also. In other words don't stock pile RB's if you have not filled your lineup. I usually grab my 3rd RB by round 6 or 7.

[heavy-set 39]

VBD is a tool, thats all. another tool is commen sense. If you draft 9 and the 10-12 already have qbs, dont take one if your vbd says to. If its me, iam taking a qb when VBD says too. I dont want some crappy rb at 30ish or dime a dozen wr that I can get later.

 

Once the sure things are gone, VBD all the way.

[heavy-set 39]

I have read up on it and used it for years.The main objective is to take the best player available every round. I use it but also may have a strategy like grab 2 WR's in the first 4 round etc. You have to be ready to draft "on the fly" on a live draft. If 6 teams ahead of you all take RB's don't follow the trend if you are stuck with poor value. I do find that you have to draft to fill out your starting lineup (k and D not inc) also. In other words don't stock pile RB's if you have not filled your lineup. I usually grab my 3rd RB by round 6 or 7.

take the most valuable player, not the best. Value is determined by scoring differences between and across the various positions, then assigining a value. scoring systems and roster sizes are also figured in. FBGs and maybe even here have an excel spreadsheet where you can input the info and click a button and it creates your cheatsheet for you. The button ruined FF for me

[Stewburtx8 67]

I have started messing with it for my 12 team ppr league and have noticed that the value for QB really high this year. the leage i'm in uses 4pts for td and 25yds= 1pt for qb and standard 1pt per rec wr/rb ppr scoring. The formula suggests the top 7 qbs are gone within the first 35 picks. Have any of you used any of the value based drafting formulas and how much success have you had?

 

Oh and my projections i used are an avg from here and fftoolbox

 

 

What benchmarks are you using to calculate VBD? I know many people base it on value over the "worst possible starter" at their position. So if you are in a 12 team league, you would use the 12th ranked QB. I'm in two PPR league and we give 6 points for all TD's, but also have harsh negative points of -3 for INT's and fumbles. So I think this makes the top QB's even more valuable considering they get more TD's and should throw less interceptions.

 

My leagues also sometimes incorporate a lot of flex positions. My one league we start QB, RB, WR, TE, RB/WR, RB/WR, WR/TE, K, 3 IDP. So with multiple flex positions, it's sometimes hard to determine the "worst possible starter" at each position. Therefore, I've started seeing people base VBD off the top 100 players selected. So if on average there at 15 QB's, 36 RB's, 36 WR's, and 10 TE's (also 3 defense) selected in the first 100 picks, then you would use these as your benchmarks.

 

Like you, I did a quick calculation using average projections from this site and ESPN and I came up with only 5 QB's in the top 35 picks based on VBD. The 6th, 7th, and 8th QB's did come in at 39th, 41st, and 42nd overall though. But as mentioned above, in my league top QB's should be more valuable than using your scoring system. That's why I was interested to see what benchmarks you were using?

[ppierce 2]

If you have espn insider, Christopher Harris sums it up about as good as you can.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k10vbd

[Raider 84 29]

If you have espn insider, Christopher Harris sums it up about as good as you can.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=nfldk2k10vbd

Very interesting approach and nice article to read. Thanks for the link.

[longlurker 0]

In a 12 team league, I would try for qb 7-10. I figure I could still land a steady producer, like (Manning3, Farve, Rivers, Flacco, Ryan, Schaub ), then take a flier on a high risk/reward guy like, (Cutler, Leinert, Stafford). I look at SOS, Wr's, playing from behind teams, something to prove players, and contract players, when deciding on who I am going to target.

 

By doing this I can load up on rb's and wr's, who in my league, are a bit more important.

 

Disclaimer: I didn't really do any research, these players came off the top of my head. "F" you guys in my league!!!