Let's talk AP's value if Favre is gone

[Lamb of God 14]

I had him when TJ was QB and expect a dip in td's. thats where AP drops. There was nothing more frustrating than wathcing Minny move down the field only to be on the 10 and see that dud throw a int. and I'm talkin TJ so if he is qb I'd seriously think of even taking Turner or Rice over Peterson just on td's alone plus Rice can catch out of the backfield. Thoughts???? Tavaris kills AP's value. 18tds wont be seen this year with that hack under center, they'd be better off with Rosenfels which it seems he's been relegated to clipboard holder.

[bluesrams2 0]

In 2008, with Gus Ferotte/Tavaris Jackson at QB, AP had 1760 yards and 10 TD's on 363 carries. On 314 carries in 2009 with Brett Favre under center, AP had 1383 yards and 18 touchdowns.

 

What I get out of this is that with Brett Favre at QB, the Vikings get more scoring chances, leading to more AP touchdowns. However, Favre takes a much more prominent role in the offense than Gus Ferotte or Tavaris Jackson, leading to less carries and less yards for AP. There is a difference of ~9 fantasy points between 2009 and 2008 disregarding fumbles and receiving yards (the latter is not something to overlook, just too lazy to look at that right now). With Peterson, the QB is not an important factor in his production, especially on a good team like the Vikings.

 

To take Turner over Adrian Peterson is just not smart. Ray Rice is an option in a PPR, but the only player worth considering over AP in standard leagues is Chris Johnson (as an owner of CJ last year, if I get the #1 pick I'm taking him.)

[friendlyoooo 0]

In 2008, with Gus Ferotte/Tavaris Jackson at QB, AP had 1760 yards and 10 TD's on 363 carries. On 314 carries in 2009 with Brett Favre under center, AP had 1383 yards and 18 touchdowns.

 

What I get out of this is that with Brett Favre at QB, the Vikings get more scoring chances, leading to more AP touchdowns. However, Favre takes a much more prominent role in the offense than Gus Ferotte or Tavaris Jackson, leading to less carries and less yards for AP. There is a difference of ~9 fantasy points between 2009 and 2008 disregarding fumbles and receiving yards (the latter is not something to overlook, just too lazy to look at that right now). With Peterson, the QB is not an important factor in his production, especially on a good team like the Vikings.

 

To take Turner over Adrian Peterson is just not smart. Ray Rice is an option in a PPR, but the only player worth considering over AP in standard leagues is Chris Johnson (as an owner of CJ last year, if I get the #1 pick I'm taking him.)

you might be right

[Riddlen 1]

In 2008, with Gus Ferotte/Tavaris Jackson at QB, AP had 1760 yards and 10 TD's on 363 carries. On 314 carries in 2009 with Brett Favre under center, AP had 1383 yards and 18 touchdowns.

 

What I get out of this is that with Brett Favre at QB, the Vikings get more scoring chances, leading to more AP touchdowns. However, Favre takes a much more prominent role in the offense than Gus Ferotte or Tavaris Jackson, leading to less carries and less yards for AP. There is a difference of ~9 fantasy points between 2009 and 2008 disregarding fumbles and receiving yards (the latter is not something to overlook, just too lazy to look at that right now). With Peterson, the QB is not an important factor in his production, especially on a good team like the Vikings.

 

To take Turner over Adrian Peterson is just not smart. Ray Rice is an option in a PPR, but the only player worth considering over AP in standard leagues is Chris Johnson (as an owner of CJ last year, if I get the #1 pick I'm taking him.)

this. plus before the favre signing last year, minnescrota seemed pretty content to head into the year with sage rosenfels under denter and they were considered a good team. now people are acting like they are garbage cause favre quit. they are still a playoff team.

[death of the cool 0]

I have drawn the 1st pick this year and CJ and AP are neck and neck....

 

How much has the Vikings OL changed since Peterson ran with T.Jackson under center? This could make a difference.

 

I still think Favre plays, but its good to have the idea thought out just in case it happens right before the draft

[Gepetto 988]

Tarvaris only threw 12 interceptions on 294 pass attempts when he started.

 

Tarvaris Jackson career stats

 

Brett Favre career stats

 

Favre usually throws more intereceptions than that per pass attempt.

[Stewburtx8 67]

In 2008, with Gus Ferotte/Tavaris Jackson at QB, AP had 1760 yards and 10 TD's on 363 carries. On 314 carries in 2009 with Brett Favre under center, AP had 1383 yards and 18 touchdowns.

 

What I get out of this is that with Brett Favre at QB, the Vikings get more scoring chances, leading to more AP touchdowns. However, Favre takes a much more prominent role in the offense than Gus Ferotte or Tavaris Jackson, leading to less carries and less yards for AP. There is a difference of ~9 fantasy points between 2009 and 2008 disregarding fumbles and receiving yards (the latter is not something to overlook, just too lazy to look at that right now). With Peterson, the QB is not an important factor in his production, especially on a good team like the Vikings.

 

To take Turner over Adrian Peterson is just not smart. Ray Rice is an option in a PPR, but the only player worth considering over AP in standard leagues is Chris Johnson (as an owner of CJ last year, if I get the #1 pick I'm taking him.)

 

 

Actually the receiving yards with or without Favre is a huge factor. AP had more rushing carries and yards in 2008 without Brett Favre. BUT he had 311 more receiving yards with Brett Favre. Without Favre, AP's receiving numbers would suffer, and I would drop him to 4th or 5th in PPR leagues. His total yardage in 2009 was only 60 total yards less than in 2008. But his TD's increased from 10 to 18 in 2009. In my opinion, the loss of Brett Favre has a pretty big impact on Adrian Peterson. He's still a top 5 back, but I don't think he would be competing for the #1 spot without Favre.

 

But I think all this is moot because I think Favre will be back.

[Gepetto 988]

APs receptions and receiving yards should go up no matter who's the QB because Chester Taylor is gone.

 

Favre's coming back anyway. No doubt about it.

[kmbryant09 1]

Actually the receiving yards with or without Favre is a huge factor. AP had more rushing carries and yards in 2008 without Brett Favre. BUT he had 311 more receiving yards with Brett Favre. Without Favre, AP's receiving numbers would suffer, and I would drop him to 4th or 5th in PPR leagues. His total yardage in 2009 was only 60 total yards less than in 2008. But his TD's increased from 10 to 18 in 2009. In my opinion, the loss of Brett Favre has a pretty big impact on Adrian Peterson. He's still a top 5 back, but I don't think he would be competing for the #1 spot without Favre.

 

But I think all this is moot because I think Favre will be back.

I think AP's receiving totals were more a product of him staying in on more 3rd downs, as well as his improvement in the passing game...Not necessarily just Brett Favre. In fact, Favre rarely checked down, as we all know he forces the ball down the field as much as possible.

 

AP could act as a security blanket for Jackson/Rosenfels, combined with his improved receiving skills, and Taylor being out of town, I think AP could end up with 50 receptions.

[jrokh 569]

I have the 2nd pick, assuming cj goes one I should take Peterson. my league is .5ppr, I am wondering why MJD is never in the discussion. Any thoughts or inspired comments appreciated

[Stewburtx8 67]

I think AP's receiving totals were more a product of him staying in on more 3rd downs, as well as his improvement in the passing game...Not necessarily just Brett Favre. In fact, Favre rarely checked down, as we all know he forces the ball down the field as much as possible.

 

AP could act as a security blanket for Jackson/Rosenfels, combined with his improved receiving skills, and Taylor being out of town, I think AP could end up with 50 receptions.

 

 

I think AP has improved in the passing game, but I still wouldn't call him a good receiving back. The Vikings still like to give him plenty of breathers on 3rd down, and I don't think that will change a lot. I think Favre was a big influence on his receiving numbers because of his play action ability on 1st and 2nd downs, and also because the Vikings sustained more drives and clearly threw the ball more often, giving AP more opportunities to catch passes and score touchdowns. If Favre isn't there, the team is going to be MUCH more conservative offensively. Peterson could see almost 400 carries in that scenario in my opinion. BUT I highly doubt he'd see receiving numbers or touchdown totals, close to last years numbers.

 

Again, I'm not trying to knock AP. He is a top 5 back in all formats regardless of his QB. But I think Brett Favre clearly helps him. But as I said previously, Favre will be back, so the whole discussion should be irrevelevant.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Yep, ADP is a top 5 rb even if my grandma is qb. Tarvarious has to be a step nephew of the coach or owner because ive never seen this much love and dedication to a truly innefective pro clipboard jockey. Hes not terribly bad with the ball and doesnt even throw too many picks but he just doesnt move the chains and blows chunks in general. Not a playoff team without brett btw, but 1500 10 for ap can be assumed with little rebuttal.