14 Team Drafting Strategies

[Superdude 4]

My league has changed to a 14 team league from 12. Not sure how strategies have changed. I am the last pick of the draft 14. I did some research on the boards. It seems that QBs have much higher value with 6 pts per passing TDs than 12 team leagues. Is this true? Any strategies I should be looking for the 14th pick? Looks like just whatever is the best value.

[WhiteWonder 2,242]

the only difference i have noticed in a 14 team league is that you need to adjust for tiers ending sooner.

 

for example in a 12 team league where you might expect your 3rd tier of RB's to make it back to you in round 3... this might not be the case with 2 extra teams and 4 extra picks coming off the board before it gets back to you.

 

adjust accordingly. If you don't like your tier 4 of RB's but are okay with your tier 4 of WR's, you might want to make sure to get at least 1 RB at the 14/15 turn.

 

this is all a hypothetical

[We Tigers 71]

My league has changed to a 14 team league from 12. Not sure how strategies have changed. I am the last pick of the draft 14. I did some research on the boards. It seems that QBs have much higher value with 6 pts per passing TDs than 12 team leagues. Is this true? Any strategies I should be looking for the 14th pick? Looks like just whatever is the best value.

White Wonder is right on about the tier dropoff. My local league moved to 14 teams two seasons ago, and I drafted from 12 in 2009 and 14 in 2010. It's hard to get good value since you're only picking every 26 players; a lot of guys might slip a round, round and a half, but very few real "value" picks make it that long. Knowing your league's tendencies is really helpful--for example, look at past drafts and see how quick QBs and TEs come off the board. Can you still get one of the Ben/Ryan/Freeman/Eli group at the 5/6 turn, or has your league traditionally gobbled up 12 QBs in 50 picks? Don't be afraid to "reach" a round (zing!) if you like a player, because he won't be there next time, but take value when it comes to you, because it won't happen often.

 

The other thing I've noticed in a 14-team league is that panicky owners may take kickers and defenses earlier, or reach for a familiar name when the draft gets thin. You can really win this size league in rounds 8-12, when other teams used to 12-team leagues might be frustrated with the slim pickings left on the board.

[shutdown 40]

My league has changed to a 14 team league from 12. Not sure how strategies have changed. I am the last pick of the draft 14. I did some research on the boards. It seems that QBs have much higher value with 6 pts per passing TDs than 12 team leagues. Is this true? Any strategies I should be looking for the 14th pick? Looks like just whatever is the best value.

 

 

Those stating that your tiers run out quicker are spot on. Depending on you leagues starters certain positions will go quicker. I've done a 14 team league for 10 years now and what I see compared to my 12 teams leagues is this.

 

1) RB's as a whole, are in more demand. We have to start two. If you employ a flex position you have the potential to start 3. You are moving from 24 starters to 28 and while that doesn't seem like much, the extra 4 starters your league needs seems to drastically impact this position as there really aren't that many RB's you'd feel comfortable starting, thus people tend to reach for RB's quicker.

 

2) QB's don't seem to change much until you hit the wall of the 10 - 12 you feel good starting. The last few of those seem to go quicker as people panic about having one of them. The next tier seem to hang around for a bit because you realize that only 2 or three other teams need a starting QB and there are probably 5 - 6 QB's in that next tier. Those teams though are likely to jump on a backup quicker to hedge their bets on waiting so long for a top QB.

 

3) TE's once the run starts at the top tier, a few of the 2nd Tier TE's will get drafted where they really shouldn't.

 

4) WR's I really don't notice a drastic difference other than the extra numbers required to fill rosters. WR's are more risk reward type players anyway outside of the top tier.

 

The other impact you'll notice is that you need to draft well in the tail end due to the lack of free agents that will be available. If you have a 14 man roster, you have 28 fewer players available in the free agency. That is very noticeable throughout the season.

[shutdown 40]

Don't be afraid to "reach" a round (zing!) if you like a player, because he won't be there next time, but take value when it comes to you, because it won't happen often.

 

Good advice, I had A. Foster targeted in the third round last year. I seriously considered him in round 2, but thought, based on all the ADP's i'd seen that he'd last until my round 3 spot. He did not. 2 more owners add two more players looking for value. If you really are high on a player, don't be afraid to go get him as they are likely to come off the board earlier than you project.

[prancers 0]

Those stating that your tiers run out quicker are spot on. Depending on you leagues starters certain positions will go quicker. I've done a 14 team league for 10 years now and what I see compared to my 12 teams leagues is this.

 

1) RB's as a whole, are in more demand. We have to start two. If you employ a flex position you have the potential to start 3. You are moving from 24 starters to 28 and while that doesn't seem like much, the extra 4 starters your league needs seems to drastically impact this position as there really aren't that many RB's you'd feel comfortable starting, thus people tend to reach for RB's quicker.

 

2) QB's don't seem to change much until you hit the wall of the 10 - 12 you feel good starting. The last few of those seem to go quicker as people panic about having one of them. The next tier seem to hang around for a bit because you realize that only 2 or three other teams need a starting QB and there are probably 5 - 6 QB's in that next tier. Those teams though are likely to jump on a backup quicker to hedge their bets on waiting so long for a top QB.

 

3) TE's once the run starts at the top tier, a few of the 2nd Tier TE's will get drafted where they really shouldn't.

 

4) WR's I really don't notice a drastic difference other than the extra numbers required to fill rosters. WR's are more risk reward type players anyway outside of the top tier.

 

The other impact you'll notice is that you need to draft well in the tail end due to the lack of free agents that will be available. If you have a 14 man roster, you have 56 fewer players available in the free agency. That is very noticeable throughout the season.

 

 

I agree with all this. If you draft based at least in part off the idea of value over the lowest guy, depending on league roster size, the change impacts some positions more than others.

 

The easiest thing to do in my opinion is looks at last year's scoring results based on your league's scoring system and look at the lowest starter, i.e. QB 14, TE 14, RB28, WR28 or WR42? and see how big the dropoff is from a guy you are targeting vs. the lowest guy and that should be a rough indicator of value.

 

For example, if QB 14 (lowest starter) last year came in at 17.5 ppg and you are looking at Brees who you expect will put up 20.5 ppg, Brees is "worth" 3 ppg. If you're comparing him to a TE, say Gates and you project Gates to score 16 ppg and TE 14 last year scored only 10 ppg, then Gates is "worth" 6 ppg and you should take him over Brees.

 

If you do that for each position, I think you'll find the top TEs have some surprising value for where you can get them. You'll also see that the value of the top RBs and WRs is very high as well. Worst starter at those positions is probably in the 10-12 ppg range and the top guys put up 17+ so they are "worth" a lot. I think RBs are especially valuable because even finding a guy who can give you that RB28 performance of 10-12 ppg isn't easy whereas it seems there are a lot of WRs who put up those low-level WR3 numbers and they can be had later in the draft.

 

So, target RB early. Don't be afraid to target one of the top tier TEs if there's a guy you like there in the 3rd-5th round. You don't get hurt too bad by waiting a bit for a QB, especially if there's one in the 10-16 range of the rankings that you think can outperform his ADP. There's good value in the mid-rounds on WRs who can beat that 11 ppg floor, even if its only by 2-3 points per game.

 

Note: all of these PPG estimates are based on standard PPR

[p00h 85]

im in a 10, 12 and 14 team leagues, plus I stayed at a holiday inn last night, so I know a thing or 2 about this. GRAB A RB EARLY! I'd grab the 2 best RBs at the turn there TBH, unless you can get your hands on Rogers or Vick. worry about WRs and TEs later. Hell if you can grab another decent RB that will get a chunk of carries at the end of the 3rd, go 3 RBs in a row. Thats really all I can offer...

 

You don't want to be in a 14 team league with rags at RB...will be an extremely hard uphill battle all year long...

[We Tigers 71]

That's true. Thinking about the 14-teamer I play in, I had garbage RBs all 2009, and only managed to do well because I had three top 10 WRs, the top TE, and a top 5 QB. Last year, I had Foster, McFadden, and Steven Jackson, and managed to win the league despite stubbornly starting Randy Moss half the year, losing Finley, losing TO a few weeks before the end of the year, and getting somewhat subpar play from Schaub. In a big league, it becomes very clear that great RBs can really give you a lot of cover for the rest of the flaws on your team.

[GridironGuzzlers 3]

last year was the first year I did a 14 teamer coming from 12. One of the best things I did was having 5 bench spots(used to have 6) Makes it a little more challenging managing your roster and leaves more viable options in the FA pool. BTW we had 6 playoff spots which came from the 2,6,7,10,11,12 draft positions. who you take in the later rounds seemed more important