FFT Zealots Dynasty start-up draft

[420allstars 13]

I understand that, and maybe RG3 turns in to Cam Newton 2.0 and is a stud right away. But my personal preference is to win in YEAR ONE. I could never convince myself to use a 4th round pick on a guy I plan to stash on my taxi squad for the whole first season. That year lost from such a high pick is not worth the potential future value to me especially in a league where you can't keep a player forever. But to each his own.. it could certainly work out for you in Years 2 through 4 of the league.

 

another option would be to trade me RG3 for flacco and get some great year one production! The way his teamates are pumping his tires this year flacco is due for 5k and 40td year

[Patmos 2]

Ha Ha! Yeah, I'm afraid that it's gonna take me two years of playing this format just to figure out what the best strategy "would have been." I'm sure I probably fell victim to over-ranking the rookies, but I did feel that I will be best served by having a Top 5 QB, and I knew I wouldn't get one in this draft (didn't want one so badly that I would pass on McCoy).

[lesjroza 70]

Warning: This is going to be a long post, more accurately a long series of posts, more like a Voice of Truth team manifesto!

Part 1

 

In order to explain my initial draft strategy and the change in my strategy mid-draft, I need to explain one of the lenses through which I view the world. I have been blessed to be a stay-at-home dad and independent trader for the last 6 years. I trade and invest mostly in the stock market and occasionally in commodities. I am not monetarily rich, being so is not a life goal for me, but the income earned has supplemented my wife’s earnings sufficiently that we are able to provide for our family of five’s current needs while allowing for living a genuinely enriched life by our definition. My trading experience is important to the discussion because I am going to use some simple market analogies to describe my approach during the draft.

 

 

 

 

I Walk A Lonely Road The Only One That I Have Ever Known, DonT Know Where It Goes But ItS Home To Me And I Walk Alone… Green Day.

 

The lyrics from this Green Day song are far from descriptive of my personal or spiritual life but an apt description of my primary trading strategy. My preferred market strategies are contrarian in nature. By this I mean that I tend to take trading positions in the market which appear to be overreactions to specific market conditions. The market conditions I am trying to exploit can be either news or technically based and, I hope, temporary in nature. This is tricky business! You never know when the other market participants have specific non-public or other information of which you are either unaware or have not properly considered. If I am doing my job properly it consists of identifying market anomalies and carefully implementing a strategy to take advantage of them.

 

There are many people in the markets who are smarter and more knowledgeable than me. They are better capitalized with huge cutting edge technological advantages and superior research capabilities. I have a similar respect for the guys involved in this draft. I have only been playing in dynasty FF for a year and the league I play in is not this specific format, so I‘m sure many of you are more experienced than I am. I have no doubt many of you are smarter than I am as well. I am CERTAIN most of you have a more current grasp of the individual talent populating the rosters during this draft. This is definitely not an “I am smarter than you post”. I have no idea how my approach will turn out but I think it’s great that we are posting our draft strategies for discussion and we will be able to look back over the years and see how the results in this league were initially shaped. I am happy to communicate my initial draft strategy only to the extent that it doesn’t infringe upon my ongoing tactics and current direction so this may limit my willingness to further expound upon some specific areas.

[lesjroza 70]

Part 2

 

With ordinary talent and extraordinary perseverance, all things are attainable.” – Thomas Foxwell Buxton

.

While I do not have any experience in this specific format, as I noted, I did spend a lot of time thinking about the scoring, starting lineup, roster makeup, and 3 year contract provision and how this should effect the player values. I thought a lot about how the league might function 3 years from now. Additionally, I did a great deal of research on general dynasty strategy and sought out the consultation of an experienced FF player from my other dynasty league. I paid particular attention to individual “expert” dynasty startup drafts and overall expert ADP especially relating to rookie players who I felt were difficult to value in comparison current NFL players. I felt a push and pull, which I’m sure most of us had in common, between choosing players who provide current production and players who provide expected future production. In the end, because of the trader tint which colors much of my thinking I chose to consider my roster as a portfolio of investments. Simplistically speaking, the players who provide current production are analogous to dividend stocks and players who provide expected future production analogous to growth stocks. Most players do not fall strictly into one category or the other but are somewhere on the spectrum of those two ends. The value of dividend producers is self evident. These guys are the ones who will provide what you need to win right now. The value of expected future production or growth stocks is to provide the points you need to win in future years or the trade value you will use to get what you need to win in the future. I’m sure populating a roster with the right mix of these players at any given time is key to achieving continuing success. My initial strategy was in the early rounds to target the players that I felt would provide the best of both of those categories. Strong point producers who are young. The holy grail of dynasty! In the middle rounds I wanted to remain open to opportunity but had a preference to alternate between growth and dividends. In the last third of the draft I wanted to focus on “rental players” who might provide a year or two of depth in areas of weakness and long shot growth stocks. I’m not going to discuss specific players beyond a few but will be happy to go into further detail by round or player if interest is expressed and to the extent it does not reveal future tactics.

[lesjroza 70]

Part 3

 

“Within our greatest strengths lie the seeds of our destruction” - unknown

 

One of the personality traits that helps me to be successful as a trader is the ability and willingness to recognize and adjust to changing market conditions. Of course the same strength can become a disadvantage if a situation is improperly diagnosed or an inappropriate response is formed.

The first 5 rounds of the draft went well according to the plan I had laid out and to the delight of both myself and my advisor. In my estimation at that point I had a nice blend of dividend and growth. As the 6th round progressed Andrew Luck was still available, dropping beyond the aforementioned ADP study. He was a player I wanted but did not feel I could afford to take at that point and still be a top team this year so I started making trade offers of a 2013 1st and 3rd round rookie picks + a mid round pick in this draft. A bounty for certain but surely a top 5 dynasty QB would be worth a couple of generic rookie picks next year, first round or otherwise. Of course nobody wanted to compromise their competitiveness this year enough to give up the pick including me. As my picks at 6.09 and 7.01 rolled around I did not want to deviate from my plan and made my QB pick of Eli Manning and WR D. Moore. I knew I was targeting Tate at 7.04 so I kept offering some combo of rookie and current picks to everyone. To my recollection I offered some combo of 2 rookie picks and a mid-round pick to every owner between 6.04 and 7.03 until Cory, recognizing the value of deferred gratification, accepted my offer. Great! Win/Win. I had no problem giving up my draft next year for that kind of special player and I was able to do it without compromising my chances for this year.

If I had known the change I would be making to my draft plan a short time later I would have used either 6.09 or 7.01 on Luck instead.

[lesjroza 70]

Part 4

 

Ben Franklin - “He that can have patience can have what he will”

 

As my pick at 8.09 rolled around I was shocked that David Wilson was still available. The drafts I had studied and the ADP info I had showed he should have gone much earlier, in fact a full round to two earlier. What was going on here? Why did Luck and Wilson and a bunch of other young talent drop so far below ADP while some other young players went a round or earlier than ADP showed? That’s when the idea coalesced for me. I had been unwilling to use a pick on players like Luck where ADP said they should go, others had been unwilling also and were unwilling to give those picks up for significant future value. Was it possible as a league we might be undervaluing players with expected future production who did not have useful current production? Intuitively the possibility made sense. Maybe the competitive spirit of the league was so focused on building teams to be immediately dominant we were undervaluing young talent who could not help in the immediate future, at least relative to where the experts thought they should be valued. Without going into great detail here I decided the risk/reward came down on the side of trying to exploit this market anomaly. If I should be correct, I felt the it should result in a sustained competitive advantage for a very long time in the future. To illustrate the effect I hoped to achieve let me use a couple of examples. Andrew Luck and Antonio Gates both went in the 7th round. Gates may well turn out to be the pick that wins the league for Nuts this year but will anyone be shocked if he is no longer useful in FF 3 years from now? At the same time will anyone be shocked if Luck is taken regularly in the first few rounds a few years from now. That means the roster value of that 7th round pick likely has gone somewhere between down dramatically to becoming completely worthless for the dividend producing roster and the roster value has gone up significantly for the growth roster. Now in a single round this is probably not meaningful or can be offset with crafty tactics in the future but suppose this example is multiplied over a great many rounds. The chances that some of the growth stocks achieve the hoped production increases as diversification over a greater number of targets is aquired and the effect on total roster value is multiplied also. Is it possible that all of the focus on the same strategy being employed by most of the teams in the league could provide an opportunity of great value for someone who was willing to go after different targets? Don’t get me wrong, I considered that there are lots of ways to be wrong here. The concept could be totally wrong to begin with. The concept could be right but the execution poor, maybe you choose the wrong young players for instance. The league could cease to exist by the time you gain advantage. You could cease to exist before you gain advantage, maybe you get hit by a bus! Did I really want to do this? The final answer was yes, and so I devised a tactic for drafting players in the next block of rounds that I thought could provide increasing roster value over the next several years paying particular attention in most cases to players significantly undervalued by the expert ADP whom I liked.

To give you some idea of how I deviated from what both my original plan and obvious strategy was at 9.04 I should have taken Gresham. He was a good value especially in a TE enhanced league and I had no TE yet. My wonderful advisor implored me to take him. He actually used those words “I implore you to take him…” and he was totally right but I was committed to this switch by that point. My ability to compete this year went down dramatically with that pick and I knew it at the time.

[lesjroza 70]

Part 5

 

My roster ended up looking a little funny. I have some obvious holes. I am not sure I will be in a position to compete this year but don’t discount me completely either. Remember the bones of this roster are quite good especially if AP is relatively healthy by mid season.

 

Eli Manning

Arian Foster

Adrian Peterson

Mike Wallace

DezBryant

 

That’s a nice core.

Most of my guys are pretty young enhancing the chance of staying healthy and possibly offsetting a lack of depth. There is always the chance of an unexpected breakout player or two as well.

I was pleasantly surprised to see that despite my unusual tactics and odd looking roster, other posts in this thread have noted that roster point production shows me in the middle of the pack and the draft recap at MFL shows my draft as rated #4 overall even though that report is based on REDRAFT RATINGS and not indicative of dynasty value.

 

My contrarian nature has resulted in the development of some pretty thick skin so don’t be afraid to critique my strategy. I can take it. I have been wrong before and I might be wrong this time but it will definitely be a lot of fun to look back a few years from now. If I am right I will repost my strategy with the title “How I ended up dominating the Zealot’s league in the years 2014 -2018“. Only time will tell and I’m going to do my best to stay away from buses in the meantime!

[Stewburtx8 67]

Really good post (or series of posts) lesjroza. Good insight in to your draft. I'll give you some of my thoughts because it's fun to talk about this stuff...especially when my drafts are still over a month away. I'm not currently in a dynasty league, but certainly love to discuss fantasy sports in all forms.

 

As for your draft strategy, I think the thing that hurt you the most in my opinion was giving up 1.03 and 5.04 for the 1.01 and 7.01. I think that is a steep price to pay just to move from the #3 to #1 spot, especially when the guy I would of seriously considered at #1 overall was available at #3 (Ray Rice). At the very least, I think Rice and Foster (and McCoy) are close enough that I wouldn't want to give up that 20+ pick difference from the 5.04 to 7.01. I think the 5th round is loaded with solid WR's or TE's and you missed out on acquiring a really solid player to plug in to your starting lineup this season.

 

As for the picks you did make, I like what you did with your first 5 picks. Peterson could be a steal where you took him assuming he returns to his old self. I am not a big Dez Bryant fan (and probably would of took a few WR's over him), but he obviously has a high ceiling if he ever realizes his potential. I really like Mike Wallace where you got him. He's young and another explosive player. Eli Manning is one of my favorite mid range QB's.

 

Now from the 7th round on is where I think you hurt your team for THIS year at least and why I wouldn't rank it as one of my favorite teams. You went VERY youth heavy and gave up your draft for next year to get Andrew Luck. If Andrew Luck is the stud QB you expect him to be though, this could pay off. I have no problem with where you took him, but you did pay a steep price to get there, especially if you end up with a high pick next year. Tate is probably a necessity for Arian Foster owners, so I understand that pick. After that you went David Wilson, Ronnie Hillman, Randall Cobb, Kendall Wright with your next 4 picks. A lot of talent/future value here, but I don't expect any of them to make a big impact this season. Wright and Hillman may be decent, and Wilson could jump in value if Bradshaw gets hurt. You also missed the boat on the value of TE's in this league by not taking one until the 13th round (Heath Miller).

 

Overall, you have A LOT of future value here. As I said earlier, I'm more of a "win now" guy, especially in a league with only 3 year contracts. But with the right growth from your young guys, and some savvy trades, I think your team has a lot of long term potential. I'd just be surprised if this was a top contending team this year, because the depth just isn't there after the first 5 picks in my opinion.

[lesjroza 70]

Thanks for the analysis Stewburtx. I think what you're saying is spot on. I'm definitely not trying to convince anyone of anything different than what you have said. It's just an explanation of my approach. I know there were some snickers about a few of my picks at the point that I made them. UNC Dave actually mentioned in the chat that I screwed up his spreadsheet because he didn't have K. Wright in his top 100 WRs! At some point in the draft in the chat shortly after a pick I made Beer Nuts made a comment that sounded like it was intended for a private message and could possibly have been agreeing about the questionable nature of my pick. That's right! I knew you were talking about me Beer Nuts! LOL Anyway, I thought it appropriate to explain the reasoning behind my draft.

 

It WAS a steep price to pay to move within the same tier of RBs, my advisor did not and still doesn't like the move either. I am still very happy I made the move but I have no doubt it was well against consensus. I would not be surprised at all if Rice is the top point scorer this year. In a redraft I never would have made the move. I WILL BE Surprised if Foster and Rice have the same resale value 3 years from now. At some point guys will begin looking at all the touches Rice has gotten both in the NFL and college, even if it does not effect his play. MJD suffers in part from this syndrome. He continually produces but he is continually discounted because nobody wants to be the last one holding when the music stops. All it will take is a knee or foot injury to get the ball rolling for Rice. This could well be unfounded and wrongheaded and it could happen the opposite way for all I know but that is the reason I made that move. The price may be well worth it if indeed those RBs are no longer in the same tier when the time to make a deal comes. The reason I was willing to move from 5.04 is the above plus according to my ADP I had a small drop in dynasty talent in that area. There ended up being a minor run RBs in the 4th that probably could have gone a round later and while I benefited with Wallace at 4.09 there was unanticipated talent available at what would have been my pick. Again I'm not defending just explaining.

 

I did and do not expect Wilson, Cobb, Wright, or Hillman to have ANY impact for my team this year. It is very possible 3 of the 4 will be on my rookie squad this year along with Luck so that no contract time will count against them but we don't have to decide for awhile. I am happy that you could see the long term value on this squad. The roster does not jump out at anyone especially not unless they are dynasty focused. I am not a big fan of any one person's value opinions but I will include a link below to a Rotoworld article titled one-man dynasty startup mock. The article came out shortly after our draft was completed. It's kind of a boring article but check this out. My roster has 11 players drafted in this mock's first 6 rounds. 11 in the first 6. You can shoot holes left and right in the place that the choices were made or the chooser but 11 in the first 6! dynasty values do tend to be a bit different than redraft. How many do you other guys have? I haven't counted anyone else's.

Also I didn't want to discuss it during the draft but as I mentioned I thought alot about the 3 contract year issue and it's impact. I don't see any reason that the contract years should change the valuation of any player from a normal dynasty league. If anything I think it should make you enhance the future value consideration. I would like someone to explain to me their thought process though if they think long term is devalued by this.

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/40824/69/dynasty-startup-mock-part-i?pg=2

[Stewburtx8 67]

I think that the 3 year contract puts less emphasis on youth to me. I do not agree that a normal start up dynasty league is the same as this league. I think a young stud has A LOT more value to your team if you can keep them forever. It sometimes takes guys 2-3 years or more to realize their potential. By the time they realize their potential, you just about have to trade them. You may get good value out of them, but they also may not give you much of anything for a year or two (or three). The taxi squad does help alleviate this a little bit though (buys you another year).

 

Also in my opinion, Aaron Rodgers as the top QB for the next 7-8 years is worth more than Aaron Rodgers as the top QB for 3 years + what you get for him in a trade. I actually think you would probably get more value out of him after 2 years because you aren't "forced" to trade him at that point. If you hold on to him for that 3rd year, now everyone knows you must move him, which I think would lower his trade value. Can you get fair value out of him at that point? I guess you might if you move him for other "3rd year" players. But like I said, I'm a "win now" guy and worry about the future 2nd. So my views are obviously slanted in that direction.

 

I've also never played in a format like this so maybe Madd Futher Mucker could chime in with his thoughts. This league was his concept, although I believe his "original" league is only in it's 2nd year, so even he may not know how it will all play out yet as guys reach their 3rd year.

[lesjroza 70]

I agree that if anyone has not been in a league with these rules for 3 - 5 yrs. they do not know how it will truly plays out. That includes me. This is what I think after much contemplation. Your assesment is correct that you may not get the fat producing years of the specific young player you have drafted. If, however, that player has reached their potential by the time you are ready to trade them what makes you think you will not get equal value in return at that point? Just do this for an exercise. Go through the draft and assume that each owner has to trade every fourth player they took because their contract is up so a round 1 player a round 4 player etc.. Why wouldn't 2 owners be trading players of the same value for one another? Why don't you think you would be in a position at some point during those 3 years to trade a RB from the same tier for another RB from the same tier? Remember everyone has the same rule. Now compare this to a regular dynasty league. If someone has a Foster or a Rice they rarely get traded and they do get the full value of the players production which is nice but they are able to do this without being concerned about how others value their player. In this league you HAVE to be concerned about how others view your player if you hope to get any value back. In fact, I think in this format maintaining (or hopefully increasing)roster value may MORE important than a traditional dynasty. I could see some rosters where guys go all in on winning now completely crashing the rosters overall value in a matter of 4 - 5 years. This was actually a consideration as to whether I was willing to build roster value because I was thinking one of the things that could go wrong is that by the time my roster value is high enough to dominate there could be so many orphaned teams the league could cease to exist. I decided that the fact that the league consisted of guys from this forum made it likely people will stick it out and/or the league will find new owners willing to take on the challenge.

 

As for Rodgers specifically if you have a player who is a tier by themselves you may feel that you are simply not getting equal value when you must trade him but I assure you someone is going to pay up with near equal value. Again the difference from a normal dynasty is that trades HAVE to be made. As a market participant I can tell you for a fact that increasing liquidity (more trades) results in a smaller bid/ask spread or in this case it will result in more equal trades happening because people have to trade. More market participants mean equality is more likely when doing business. After this league has been in existence for awhile I am guessing approximately 25-30% of all of the players in the league are going to change hands in any given year. Again this is all theoretical on my part (but I AM pretty good at that) and it sounds like it is on anyone elses part as well so it will be interesting to see how it all does actually play out.

Also the taxi squad is available to rookie players for up to 2 years so in the case of Luck for instance I will not have to play him at all until 2014 and will be using him (unless I trade him earlier) from 2014-2017. You get the benefit of yrs 1-3, 2-4, or 3-5 depending on how you structure it. If a player hasn't reached their potential by then you probably were never going to get much out them in terms of production or trade value.

[Stewburtx8 67]

I understand your points, and you make some very good ones. I just think that it's much easier to know what you have and hold on to it than try to trade it for equal value. As you said, everyone's perception of equal value is different. But I guess in some cases, you might get back what you believe to be more than equal value. For those that love trading and are good at it, this league is great. I agree that the turnover should be pretty high almost every year. It should be interesting to see how it plays out in Years 2 through 4 of the league especially.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I don't remember the message you speak of but if is memorable to others it must have been a good one.

[420allstars 13]

My contrarian nature has resulted in the development of some pretty thick skin so dont be afraid to critique my strategy. I can take it. I have been wrong before and I might be wrong this time but it will definitely be a lot of fun to look back a few years from now. If I am right I will repost my strategy with the title How I ended up dominating the Zealots league in the years 2014 -2018. Only time will tell and Im going to do my best to stay away from buses in the meantime!

 

Great Write up! I do share allot of the same ideas as you on the youth values and I agree that there was some great young talent left on the board too long IMO..

 

I actually had to force myself to take a few "vets" as I assume a few of the young guys I took will not pan out as I expect them too..

 

also of note: I agree with your move for luck 100% he is as close to a sure thing rookie as you can get and a rookie pick is sexy to hold but will loose value with every win your team puts up..the 3rd is a crap shoot so as long as you dont finish last I dont predict a possibility that anyone is trading luck/T-rich/RG3 for a say 1.04-1.10 pick in any format..

 

but....just remember all this is coming from a guy who took a rookie at 2.02...

 

I guess I should do one of there write ups too huh

[lesjroza 70]

Great Write up! I do share allot of the same ideas as you on the youth values and I agree that there was some great young talent left on the board too long IMO..

 

I actually had to force myself to take a few "vets" as I assume a few of the young guys I took will not pan out as I expect them too..

 

also of note: I agree with your move for luck 100% he is as close to a sure thing rookie as you can get and a rookie pick is sexy to hold but will loose value with every win your team puts up..the 3rd is a crap shoot so as long as you don’t finish last I don’t predict a possibility that anyone is trading luck/T-rich/RG3 for a say 1.04-1.10 pick in any format..

 

but....just remember all this is coming from a guy who took a rookie at 2.02...

 

I guess I should do one of there write ups too huh

 

Thanks 420. Your selection of TR at 2.02 was a true steal in a dynasty format. I have seen him ranked within the top tier of dynasty RBs. Didn't our own MFM have him #2 on his ranking of top 10 RBs predraft? I am not generally "that guy" in the draft that overvalues the rookie due to excesssive hype but I guess maybe I was in this draft. I ended up giving up a #1 and a #2 for Luck! I had tried a bunch of different combos of mid - round picks and rookie picks and that was what finally worked.

Locker very well may be a great FF QB a couple of years before Luck has the neccesary talent around him. Great pick where you got him!

[420allstars 13]

Thanks 420. Your selection of TR at 2.02 was a true steal in a dynasty format. I have seen him ranked within the top tier of dynasty RBs. Didn't our own MFM have him #2 on his ranking of top 10 RBs predraft? I am not generally "that guy" in the draft that overvalues the rookie due to excesssive hype but I guess maybe I was in this draft. I ended up giving up a #1 and a #2 for Luck! I had tried a bunch of different combos of mid - round picks and rookie picks and that was what finally worked.

Locker very well may be a great FF QB a couple of years before Luck has the neccesary talent around him. Great pick where you got him!

 

I sure hope they both work out.. I was 99% I was going to take T-rich at 1.11 but when I saw Cam there I had to jump on it.. I have been widely criticized for taking him (Newton) so early but I am a true believer that he could be a absolute stud this year with a full offseason and another year of maturity..

 

As for T-rich I am putting allot of faith in my gut call here but of the remaining RB's on the board he has obviously the least miles and feel at the 2-3 year mark he could/and may very well be the number one RB in the game. so I get a true cow-bell and IMO top ten RB in year one (assuming health) and what I hope will be a HUGE return on my investment when I do decide to trade him.

 

Locker is another Gut call but when he did see the field he looked explosive! I did give up my first and my third for him but like your luck trade I dont see a rookie pick in the bottom half of the first and third rounds holding the value the a young starting QB with tons of weapons and a solid scramble or run ability

 

I think my WR core with Cruz, Britt, Vjax, Boldin, Washington, Bess, and Henderson gives me pretty good balance and consistently if healthy..

 

For TE I went with some high upside guys in Finlay who I think will have a big bounce back year! the Indy pair Fleener and Allen who will probably spend this year on my Taxi Squad (depending on how there being used in pre-season) and Luke Stocker who is being praised by coaches and Teammates allot this offseason so who knows how he plays out..

 

My Rbs are scary but I can honestly say that about most teams as there is so few sure things in the league right now after the top 10ish..

 

Trich I explained earlier.. Ingram and Jaquiz Rodgers both have questionable roles in their offence but I am betting on getting starter production out of one of them this year.. J-stew is a very talented guy in a mess of a situation but is a UFA at the end of the season..maybe that works for me? Mendenhall is a crap shoot but to get a starter (even if he does miss a couple games) in the 12th round I couldnt resist.. finish it up with Brandon Jackson who I assume will end up as Trents Primary handcuff ( or makes a good guy to drop in waivers)

 

 

dont get me wrong here boys I assure you I miss on a few of my picks but I think that allot of guys are undervaluing the re-sale value of the Vets vs. Young guys in a couple years..

 

heres the full roster for those who want to take a Jab or two...

 

Flacco, Joe BAL QB

 

Locker, Jake TEN QB

 

Newton, Cam CAR QB

 

Ingram, Mark NOS RB (P)

 

Jackson, Brandon CLE RB

 

Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB (D)

 

Richardson, Trent CLE RB (P)

 

Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB

 

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

 

Bess, Davone MIA WR (P)

 

Boldin, Anquan BAL WR

 

Britt, Kenny TEN WR (Q)

 

Cruz, Victor NYG WR

 

Henderson, Devery NOS WR

 

Jackson, Vincent TBB WR

 

Washington, Nate TEN WR (P)

 

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE

 

Fleener, Coby IND TE

 

Crosby, Mason GBP PK

 

Bears, Chicago CHI Def

 

Taxi as it sits now

 

Ganaway, Terrance NYJ RB

 

Floyd, Michael ARI WR (P)

 

Allen, Dwayne IND TE

 

Stocker, Luke TBB TE

[420allstars 13]

I guess its obvious: you cockgobblers cant find a single flaw in the 420 allstars line-up huh

[crowes 1]

I sure hope they both work out.. I was 99% I was going to take T-rich at 1.11 but when I saw Cam there I had to jump on it.. I have been widely criticized for taking him (Newton) so early but I am a true believer that he could be a absolute stud this year with a full offseason and another year of maturity..

 

As for T-rich I am putting allot of faith in my gut call here but of the remaining RB's on the board he has obviously the least miles and feel at the 2-3 year mark he could/and may very well be the number one RB in the game. so I get a true cow-bell and IMO top ten RB in year one (assuming health) and what I hope will be a HUGE return on my investment when I do decide to trade him.

 

Locker is another Gut call but when he did see the field he looked explosive! I did give up my first and my third for him but like your luck trade I don’t see a rookie pick in the bottom half of the first and third rounds holding the value the a young starting QB with tons of weapons and a solid scramble or run ability

 

I think my WR core with Cruz, Britt, Vjax, Boldin, Washington, Bess, and Henderson gives me pretty good balance and consistently if healthy..

 

For TE I went with some high upside guys in Finlay who I think will have a big bounce back year! the Indy pair Fleener and Allen who will probably spend this year on my Taxi Squad (depending on how there being used in pre-season) and Luke Stocker who is being praised by coaches and Teammates allot this offseason so who knows how he plays out..

 

My Rb’s are scary but I can honestly say that about most teams as there is so few sure things in the league right now after the top 10ish..

 

Trich I explained earlier.. Ingram and Jaquiz Rodgers both have questionable roles in their offence but I am betting on getting starter production out of one of them this year.. J-stew is a very talented guy in a mess of a situation but is a UFA at the end of the season..maybe that works for me? Mendenhall is a crap shoot but to get a starter (even if he does miss a couple games) in the 12th round I couldn’t resist.. finish it up with Brandon Jackson who I assume will end up as Trent’s Primary handcuff ( or makes a good guy to drop in waivers)

 

 

don’t get me wrong here boys I assure you I miss on a few of my picks but I think that allot of guys are undervaluing the re-sale value of the Vets vs. Young guys in a couple years..

 

heres the full roster for those who want to take a Jab or two...

 

Flacco, Joe BAL QB

 

Locker, Jake TEN QB

 

Newton, Cam CAR QB

 

Ingram, Mark NOS RB (P)

 

Jackson, Brandon CLE RB

 

Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB (D)

 

Richardson, Trent CLE RB (P)

 

Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB

 

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

 

Bess, Davone MIA WR (P)

 

Boldin, Anquan BAL WR

 

Britt, Kenny TEN WR (Q)

 

Cruz, Victor NYG WR

 

Henderson, Devery NOS WR

 

Jackson, Vincent TBB WR

 

Washington, Nate TEN WR (P)

 

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE

 

Fleener, Coby IND TE

 

Crosby, Mason GBP PK

 

Bears, Chicago CHI Def

 

Taxi as it sits now

 

Ganaway, Terrance NYJ RB

 

Floyd, Michael ARI WR (P)

 

Allen, Dwayne IND TE

 

Stocker, Luke TBB TE

 

 

Is it widely held that Mendenhall is worth anything this year, I dont really get that feeling and havent seen anything like that. Not that I've seen alot of Redman hype either, but I just assume its Redman with a mix of the other kids in the backfield. Due to the injury/timing of Mendy?

[lesjroza 70]

I guess its obvious: you cockgobblers cant find a single flaw in the 420 allstars line-up huh

 

 

420 I think you have a very solid squad with a nice balance of youth and vets. Like you noted RB2 is an issue with most teams but you have some cadidates who could fill that roll nicely if the right things happen. You also have some solid dynasty trade bait if circumstances make it worth going after guy who can better fill the void later in the year.

 

While important to winning this year I think a focus on having an ideal starting lineup out of the gate is short-sighted but you accomplished that while still managing to aquire excellent dynasty value.

 

It would be interesting if someone had the time to compare the way our draft went to dynasty startup ADPs to make a list of the biggest bargains.

Here is a link to the ADP I used as a reference. They do some excellent work but I used it in conjunction with notes from individual drafts trying to target certain players that I wanted.

 

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/04/12/fantasy-2012-dynasty-average-draft-position-adp/

 

And here is a link to a rookie ADP mentioned by Ray Lewis' Limo Driver in another thread.

 

http://www.zealotsfield.com/adp/2012_adp.html

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Is it widely held that Mendenhall is worth anything this year, I dont really get that feeling and havent seen anything like that. Not that I've seen alot of Redman hype either, but I just assume its Redman with a mix of the other kids in the backfield. Due to the injury/timing of Mendy?

He is worth the risk as a late round flier. Other than that I do not see much value for him. I think it is going to take him all year to recover and I would bet he doesn't play a game this year.

 

It doesn't seem that he is on the good side of the coaches, and I don't think it will change. Redman and Rainey do not impress me much either. I think anyone not named Mendenhall has a chance to step up and take the reigns this year. That includes a player by the name of Baron Batch.

[UNCDave 0]

The biggest problem comparing ADP like that is that there is no true dynasty start-up ADP. That is going to change some players value drastically,like Best or Turner for example. Still I suppose you could just look at ffc's ppr ADP and gauge there who got the best values.

 

MFL also has a link where you can have FBG rate your team, that's an interesting thing to look at as well. It gives you what they think your chances of making the playoffs in your league are. Here is what I got:

 

"Overview:

 

Congratulations! You seem to have grabbed quality players at every turn of this draft. It's rare indeed to be better than the average team at the three core positions (quarterback, running back and receiver), but we think this team is. And it's above average at the supporting positions as well.

 

You must be among the favorites in this league and have positioned yourself to grab one of the playoff spots. But before you start engraving the trophy, realize that the draft is not the end of the story. Things can and do go wrong, so you need to remain diligent throughout the year to ensure you remain strong until the playoffs.

 

Players we particularly like on this team include Jason Witten, Emmanuel Sanders, Greg Olsen, Christian Ponder, Mohamed Sanu, and Stephen Gostkowski. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

 

Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.

With good inseason management, we think you have about a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs.

With average inseason management, we think you have a 73 percent chance of making the playoffs."

[Matt Mueller 146]

Nice Dave, I didn't know about that.

 

Overview:

 

Congratulations! You seem to have grabbed quality players at every turn of this draft. It's rare indeed to be better than the average team at the three core positions (quarterback, running back and receiver), but we think this team is.

 

You must be among the favorites in this league and have positioned yourself to grab one of the playoff spots. But before you start engraving the trophy, realize that the draft is not the end of the story. Things can and do go wrong, so you need to remain diligent throughout the year to ensure you remain strong until the playoffs.

 

Players we particularly like on this team include Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Alex Smith, Jahvid Best, Owen Daniels, and Michael Crabtree. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

 

Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.

With good inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.

With average inseason management, we think you have a 81 percent chance of making the playoffs.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I'd be curious what everyone's highest first week lineup total would be assuming last years PPG numbers.

 

QB: Rodgers- 30.0

RB: Forte-19.3

RB: Bradshaw-16.2

Flex: Best- 19.4, Lloyd-13.1, ect

WR: Harvin-17.7

WR: Bowe-14.5

WR: Stevie 13.7

TE: Keller-13.6

K: Bironas 8.6

D: Seattle-13.3

 

Total: 166.3

[lesjroza 70]

Matt, for some reason the phrase "past performance may not be indicative of future results" was in my mind the whole time but I bit and mine was 147.8.

[Patmos 2]

I have a 32% chance, so I guess I'll start researching next year's number one draft choice

[UNCDave 0]

QB - Vick 34.6

RB- Rice 22.9

RB- DWill 9.7

WR- Jennings 16.6

WR- White 17.4

WR- Austin 14.3

TE- Witten 12.7

Flex- Meachem 8.7

K- Gostkowski 8.0

Def- Bal 15.5

 

Total 161.4

[ralphster 274]

I guess its obvious: you cockgobblers cant find a single flaw in the 420 allstars line-up huh

 

Dunno what you were smoking 420. Your RBs are teh roughness. Starting T Rich and J Stew each week (or agonizing over what role players will pop in which matchup) would rend and gnash my Sunday mornings to pieces. Cam/Cruz/Britt/Jackson/Finley are a nice 5 to run each week and I dig Floyd and Allen on your taxi squad though. Still - RB AGONY each week for you. Keep the bee ong handy.

 

I have a 32% chance, so I guess I'll start researching next year's number one draft choice

 

Totally made me laugh Patmos. Hilarious.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

QB - Vick 34.6

RB- Rice 22.9

RB- DWill 9.7

WR- Jennings 16.6

WR- White 17.4

WR- Austin 14.3

TE- Witten 12.7

Flex- Meachem 8.7

K- Gostkowski 8.0

Def- Bal 15.5

 

Total 161.4

Vick really averaged 34.6 pts/game last year in our scoring format? I don't think it's that high.

[Matts Eagles 25]

My projected starting lineup:

 

QB Brady 26.3

RB Gore 13.75

RB RBush 14.60

RB Greene 12

WR Marshall 15.5

WR Decker 16.6

TE Gronk 25.5

K Hanson 11

D/ST Bills 11.8

 

Total points 147.05

 

Obviously will change based on matchups

[420allstars 13]

Dunno what you were smoking 420. Your RBs are teh roughness. Starting T Rich and J Stew each week (or agonizing over what role players will pop in which matchup) would rend and gnash my Sunday mornings to pieces. Cam/Cruz/Britt/Jackson/Finley are a nice 5 to run each week and I dig Floyd and Allen on your taxi squad though. Still - RB AGONY each week for you. Keep the bee ong handy.

 

 

Honestly I agree with you about my RB's.. But I have always felt that there is so much uncertanty with the RB's after the top guys that I would build my with consistant WR's and enough youth/trade bait that I will be able to get by and hope I hit with a couple of my high upside guys..

[420allstars 13]

Is it widely held that Mendenhall is worth anything this year, I dont really get that feeling and havent seen anything like that. Not that I've seen alot of Redman hype either, but I just assume its Redman with a mix of the other kids in the backfield. Due to the injury/timing of Mendy?

 

per roto:

 

Rashard Mendenhall (ACL surgery) has begun straight-line sprints.Not always the most diligent offseason worker, Mendenhall appears to be in great shape while rehabbing his right knee. According to beat writer Dale Lolley, it looks like Mendenhall will be back "sooner rather than later." Contrary to conventional wisdom, Mendenhall is far from a lock to open the season on the PUP list. Keep that in mind when evaluating Isaac Redman this summer

 

trust me I am not counting on Mendy for much.. but its worth the Gamble IMO, not like I was passing up on studs at that point..

[Patmos 2]

My projected starting lineup:

 

QB Brady 26.3

RB Gore 13.75

RB RBush 14.60

RB Greene 12

WR Marshall 15.5

WR Decker 16.6

TE Gronk 25.5

K Hanson 11

D/ST Bills 11.8

 

Total points 147.05

 

Obviously will change based on matchups

 

You are short a WR

[lesjroza 70]

UNC Dave

MFL also has a link where you can have FBG rate your team, that's an interesting thing to look at as well. It gives you what they think your chances of making the playoffs in your league are. Here is what I got:

 

 

 

 

I have a few questions about how you guys did this though I was pleasantly surprised when I saw my results. Is there a way to automatically enter our scoring sytem? I couldn't find a direct link and when I searched for the page and found it there didn't seem to be a way to account for several diffrences in scoring like the extra .05 for TEs rec, WR rushing, etc. Additionally, there is more than 1 set of projections and my team is rated differently according to each. Which set did you guys use? Also I would expect these calculations would change a bit based on the roster size used 24 or 20 and which players are put on the taxi squad.

 

Players we particularly like on this team include Rashad Jennings, Alex Green, Joe McKnight, Ronnie Hillman, Denarius Moore, Randall Cobb, the Patriots defense, and Alex Henery. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line: • With great inseason management, we think you have about a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With good inseason management, we think you have about a 60 percent chance of making the playoffs.

• With average inseason management, we think you have a 44 percent chance of making the playoffs

 

 

This is my middle projection according to Dodds.

Henry has my chances as high as 80% and Woods as high as 65%

Personally I would have my chances lower but is it possible these guys are as overly optmistic as most FF owners?

 

In any case if those are my actual odds I'll take it given my expected larger than average rising roster value over the next several years.

 

Did you guys notice they have a link to click for dynasty teams that is working on 2013 expectations?

[Matt Mueller 146]

Les, I couldn't figure out to way to bump te yardage, or wr/qb rushing yardage, up.

 

I changed QB tds from 6 to 4, added PPR and that was about it.

[lesjroza 70]

Les, I couldn't figure out to way to bump te yardage, or wr/qb rushing yardage, up.

 

I changed QB tds from 6 to 4, added PPR and that was about it.

 

I don't remeber all the changes i made but there are quite a few more especially with the D

[Matts Eagles 25]

You are short a WR

 

 

QB Brady 26.3

RB Gore 13.75

RB RBush 14.60

RB Greene 12

WR Marshall 15.5

WR Decker 16.6

WR Manningham or S. Moss 11.3

TE Gronk 25.5

K Hanson 11

D/ST Bills 11.8

 

Total points 158.35

 

Obviously will change based on matchups

[420allstars 13]

QB Brady 26.3

RB Gore 13.75

RB RBush 14.60

RB Greene 12

WR Marshall 15.5

WR Decker 16.6

WR Manningham or S. Moss 11.3

TE Gronk 25.5

K Hanson 11

D/ST Bills 11.8

 

Total points 158.35

 

Obviously will change based on matchups

 

Where is everyone coming up with these numbers? is this based on our scoring average from last season?

[Matts Eagles 25]

Where is everyone coming up with these numbers? is this based on our scoring average from last season?

Personally i took stats from last year when i pulled players up...and divided them by 16 except Manningham and Moss...

[Matt Mueller 146]

Where is everyone coming up with these numbers? is this based on our scoring average from last season?

 

Click on 'Player Stats' Then there is a pull down that says 'Overall' which you can change to just your team.

 

Then all your players will have a weekly average from last year.

 

Obviously players won't perform to that exact level but it's as decent a marker as any.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I will pose this question to FFToday like I did on our league site.

 

So who the eff was the biggest steal of the draft? Who the eff was the biggest reach of the draft? Please do not count anyone on your own team. Try to target a player on someone else's team. On a scale of 1-10 how much fun did you have during the marathon draft? What would you do differently for next year? I assume there will be a few that want to consider making it mandatory to hold a kicker on your team for no reason for 3 months. Suggestions welcome from people not included in the league for what we could do different next year. Live draft anyone? Probably not feasible but would be fun.