svtballa 8 Posted July 12, 2012 I have a gut feeling he is going to be huge this year. How high would you reach for him? i am picking 11th out of 12 i was thinking of taking him witht he 14th if calvin andre and fitz are gone..vjax/wallace/aj green are all being kept in our league...thoughts???? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phurfur 70 Posted July 12, 2012 ADP 3.7 I would work on a trade first, I am considering him at 3.4. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
svtballa 8 Posted July 12, 2012 Ive seen roddy go as high as 14/15/16..is it that crazy to think a guy of julios talent playing on turf while the offense is making it a point to air it out be drafted that high? id rather gamble and be happy with wr 2#s than be conservative and have him blow up..anyone else ever reach for a guy they had a feeling on? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 1,652 Posted July 12, 2012 I would do it. I doubt Andre will be gone by that point. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
svtballa 8 Posted July 12, 2012 per rotoworld... Appearing on SportsCenter Wednesday, ESPN's Jerry Rice nominated Julio Jones as the NFL's biggest breakout wide receiver for 2012. "I love this kid," said Rice. "He’s awesome. He’s big, he’s fast. ... I think he’s gonna have a breakout season this coming year." Former longtime NFL personnel man Bryan Broaddus is on board, as well. "Did a bunch of work on ATL and he really looks special," Broaddus wrote. We recently adjusted Jones' projection and ranking for the 2012 season, accessible at the link below. he will not be there at 3.7 no way Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
420allstars 13 Posted July 12, 2012 I have a gut feeling he is going to be huge this year. How high would you reach for him? i am picking 11th out of 12 i was thinking of taking him witht he 14th if calvin andre and fitz are gone..vjax/wallace/aj green are all being kept in our league...thoughts???? Seems a little early to me..do some mocks and I think you will see you can wait a round or two agree he could be a monster but there still are a couple other guys there that will limit his targets Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Matt Mueller 146 Posted July 12, 2012 Ive seen roddy go as high as 14/15/16..is it that crazy to think a guy of julios talent playing on turf while the offense is making it a point to air it out be drafted that high? id rather gamble and be happy with wr 2#s than be conservative and have him blow up..anyone else ever reach for a guy they had a feeling on? Yes. in 2009 I reached for Rice. In 2010, I drafted Peyton, Roddy, and Foster as my first 3 picks ahead of their ADP. I won total points. I think Julio is due for a breakout. I also think there is a ton of WR value and I'd be comfortable starting say any of the top 24 options. I almost think WR is Calvin and everyone else. If he's one of those guys you'd hate to see blow up on someone else's team maybe a reach is due. That said, I think his average of 17.8 comes back to earth this year. He'e explosive and he's going to hit big plays, he was consistent in doing so last year, but if you take away his 4 longest tds, 80, 75, 50, 48, his receiving totals drop from 959 to 706. A lot of this value was breaking these big ones. If they don't quite repeat it's possible he may be over drafted. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Matt Mueller 146 Posted July 12, 2012 Looking into it further: the last 5 weeks of the season, a decent marker b/c he was healthy and had some games under his belt, he was tied for 18th in the league in targets with 43. His partner Roddy was #1 with 67. Julio did turn those targets into the 3rd most points, and I do believe he will continue to excel in that area, Im just showing how much of his production came on big plays last year. If there is some pause with Cruz or Nelson repeating, I think it's fair to look at Julio if we are gonna consider reaching on him. All of this said I think Julio can be a top 5 wr this year. I'm just pointing out some stuff to think about. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
crowes 1 Posted July 12, 2012 No way he lasts til 3.07 adp soemone is always gonna overdraft julio... i took him 2.08 in the zealots startup which I guess could be a reach, but 3 guys choked when I did and would have loved to steal him afew picks later. If you love a guy, youre probably not alone, and reaching-a round- or a few picks is cool. I think he is an easy top 5 possibility... there are a few others, but i dont love them for my own reasons. With your draft spot you can get a great RB in rd1 and you could take another in the second but you wont get AJ green or julio in the 3rd. I guess you could try to trade down a bit gaining in another round, but how far? If you love him,grab him- its not stupid. Or trade and live the possibilty that u dont get him and just move on. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gepetto 988 Posted July 12, 2012 He went 3.12 in my league of fftoday people. 12 team ppr. We drafted in early June. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Portis26 0 Posted July 13, 2012 That's what she said... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Raider 84 29 Posted July 13, 2012 I'd do it as well. I personally rather have Julio than Johnson. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Matt Mueller 146 Posted July 13, 2012 I think I'm of the opinion that this is a good draft to wait on wr but I like Julio. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gepetto 988 Posted July 13, 2012 I like Julio and expect a jump in Atlanta's passing numbers. Julio is an explosive player who can and does catch slants and quick outs and takes it the distance, and can go deep and score that way too. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
steelers2101 7 Posted July 13, 2012 Yes. in 2009 I reached for Rice. In 2010, I drafted Peyton, Roddy, and Foster as my first 3 picks ahead of their ADP. I won total points. I think Julio is due for a breakout. I also think there is a ton of WR value and I'd be comfortable starting say any of the top 24 options. I almost think WR is Calvin and everyone else. If he's one of those guys you'd hate to see blow up on someone else's team maybe a reach is due. That said, I think his average of 17.8 comes back to earth this year. He'e explosive and he's going to hit big plays, he was consistent in doing so last year, but if you take away his 4 longest tds, 80, 75, 50, 48, his receiving totals drop from 959 to 706. A lot of this value was breaking these big ones. If they don't quite repeat it's possible he may be over drafted. You had me until the last paragraph. You can't just take away his 4 long TDs. That's part of what makes him so good, his ability to break the big one. Moreover, by taking those TDs out, you're dropping him down to 0 long TDs, which is much less likely than him getting 4 or more. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
steelers2101 7 Posted July 13, 2012 He went 3.12 in my league of fftoday people. 12 team ppr. We drafted in early June. That is certainly not an endorsement of the posters on this board. The reason he was taken so late is that it sometimes takes hype to increase a player's value; hype being the product of independent out-of-the-box thinkers like the OP, followed by followers slowly catching on. In June, the hype hadn't begun, so people in that draft were probably more hopeful that Julio would make it to their next pick. The guy at 3.12 was rewarded by waiting as Julio made it back to him. In the OP's draft, by the time it happens, Julio won't make it back to 35, so he should take him if he feels he's the best player or WR available. That's actually generally a good rule to follow; Take the best player available that does not have a reasonable chance of making it to your next pick. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FeelingMN 273 Posted July 13, 2012 That is certainly not an endorsement of the posters on this board. The reason he was taken so late is that it sometimes takes hype to increase a player's value; hype being the product of independent out-of-the-box thinkers like the OP, followed by followers slowly catching on. In June, the hype hadn't begun, so people in that draft were probably more hopeful that Julio would make it to their next pick. The guy at 3.12 was rewarded by waiting as Julio made it back to him. In the OP's draft, by the time it happens, Julio won't make it back to 35, so he should take him if he feels he's the best player or WR available. That's actually generally a good rule to follow; Take the best player available that does not have a reasonable chance of making it to your next pick. Hype decreases value. Every time. But I agree with your general take: draft the guy you want if you think there's the slightest chance he doesn't make it back to you. If the OP isn't sure he'll be there in round 3, pull the trigger. It's more fun to win at fantasy when your instincts pay off. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
steelers2101 7 Posted July 13, 2012 Hype decreases value. Every time. But I agree with your general take: draft the guy you want if you think there's the slightest chance he doesn't make it back to you. If the OP isn't sure he'll be there in round 3, pull the trigger. It's more fun to win at fantasy when your instincts pay off. You're right. I meant hype increases cost (hence decreasing value). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gepetto 988 Posted July 13, 2012 You make good points steelers2101. That's why I pointed out when we drafted. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
steelers2101 7 Posted July 13, 2012 You make good points steelers2101. That's why I pointed out when we drafted. Thanks. Though, I should have been clearer to point out that although it is not an endorsement, it is also not an indictment either due to the chance waiting would pay off, as I mentioned after. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ralphster 274 Posted July 13, 2012 I know you feel odd for wanting to take him at 14. Comes down to what you really think versus what others are saying. My projection: 80@14=1120 yards, 10 TDs. Totally within his range, and surely a WR1 on any team not sporting Calvin. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gepetto 988 Posted July 13, 2012 Julio Jones - WR - Atlanta Falcons Posted 7/12/12 7:58pm et Former NFL WR Jerry Rice is a fan of Atlanta Falcons WR Julio Jones and believes Jones will have a breakout campaign in 2012. 'I love this kid,' Rice said. 'He's awesome. He's big, he's fast ... I think he's gonna have a breakout season this coming year.' Huddle Up: That's quite a compliment from the NFL's greatest wide receiver ever. And don't think Rice just threw that out there based on size and speed. He's probably studied Jones' route-running, positioning, field smarts, everything. Jones has another thing going for him too: As long as Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are on the field he'll rarely see double coverage. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PackYourNut 47 Posted July 13, 2012 The hype train is in full affect here... Roddy will still lead this team in targets and receptions! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
