PATSSOX 22 Posted July 15, 2012 We drew for draft slots today before our poker game and i got #11 pick in 12 team league. So people in the 11 hole feel free to discuss strategies. My early thoughts are i am going to grab 2 RBs down at bottom. I count around 16-18 RBs that i would probably feel warm and fuzzy about being my RB1 or RB2 but around 8-10 id consider taking in round 1 or 2. My dream situation would be if i could somehow end up with MJD and McFadden. Highly doubt will happen but possible with lots of luck. For Standard Scoring(No PPR) #1 Arian Foster #2 LeSean McCoy #3 Ray Rice #4 Chris Johnson #5 Ryan Mathews #6 Darren McFadden #7 MJD #8 Matt Forte #9 Jamaal Charles #10 DeMarco Murray #11 Adrian Peterson #12 Marshawn Lynch #13 Steven Jackson #14 Fred Jackson #15 Ahmad Bradshaw #16 Michael Turner #17 Trent Richardson #18 Frank Gore Foster, McCoy, Rodgers, Rice, Chris Johnson, and Brees will probably be taken in first 6 picks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Matt Mueller 146 Posted July 15, 2012 I like the 2 rb approach. Assuming MJD/McFadden go I'd look at maybe a Forte/Lynch combo. I wouldn't go Charles or AP and don't totally trust Murray. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted July 15, 2012 I like the 2 rb approach. Assuming MJD/McFadden go I'd look at maybe a Forte/Lynch combo. I wouldn't go Charles or AP and don't totally trust Murray. Yeah im very skeptical of Charles and AP. I think there is a very good chance that MJD and McFadden will be available. Couple of were going over who picks where and this is what came up with. 1-Foster 2-McCoy 3-Rice 4-Rodgers 5-Chris Johnson 6-Calvin 7-NO IDEA HERE 8-Brees 9-Mathews 10-Brady 11- 12- Once the first big group of RBs go its just crap shoot on rest of them. I think there is going to be a run on QBs as some guys might panic and take the TIER 2 QBs little early. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Matt Mueller 146 Posted July 15, 2012 I'm starting to get skeptical of MJD too. He could fall to you. I think a holdout into the season is a real risk though. Jags, being such a bad team, don't really have a ton of incentive to throw more money at him. This one might get ugly. McFadden I'd take in a heartbeat but MJD, as good as he is, might give me some pause. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted July 15, 2012 I'm starting to get skeptical of MJD too. He could fall to you. I think a holdout into the season is a real risk though. Jags, being such a bad team, don't really have a ton of incentive to throw more money at him. This one might get ugly. McFadden I'd take in a heartbeat but MJD, as good as he is, might give me some pause. There are a good number of "studs" who could hold out. Just off the top my head you have Forte, MJD, Rice, and Bowe. And we all know what the usual results are for the guys who do hold out. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,734 Posted July 15, 2012 There are a good number of "studs" who could hold out. Just off the top my head you have Forte, MJD, Rice, and Bowe. And we all know what the usual results are for the guys who do hold out. There is almost no chance that Bowe holds out. He can play this season for a 9.5 million tender and be in another contract year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stewburtx8 67 Posted July 15, 2012 There are a good number of "studs" who could hold out. Just off the top my head you have Forte, MJD, Rice, and Bowe. And we all know what the usual results are for the guys who do hold out. Forte has guaranteed he wouldn't miss games. White Wonder covered Bowe's situation. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
b0younce 0 Posted July 15, 2012 no way I take 2 rbs that low. I take a top tier wr and rb or brady/brees and an rb. You can argue that your rb at pick 2.2 is nearly the same as your rb at pick 3.11 but you cannot say that for a qb or top wr Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Matt Mueller 146 Posted July 15, 2012 no way I take 2 rbs that low. I take a top tier wr and rb or brady/brees and an rb. You can argue that your rb at pick 2.2 is nearly the same as your rb at pick 3.11 but you cannot say that for a qb or top wr I think the wrs available at 3.11 are way more similar to 2.2 than the running backs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Matt Mueller 146 Posted July 15, 2012 Just going off standard FFC ADP data. 2.2 running backs: Murray, Lynch, Forte 3.11 running backs: Gore, Martin, Redman 2.2 wide receivers: Fitz, AJ 3.11 wide receivers: Wallace, Nicks, Dez, Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WhiteWonder 2,734 Posted July 15, 2012 no way I take 2 rbs that low. I take a top tier wr and rb or brady/brees and an rb. You can argue that your rb at pick 2.2 is nearly the same as your rb at pick 3.11 but you cannot say that for a qb or top wr I would like to hear the argument that the RB you can select at 3.11 is nearly the same as a richardson, Lynch, murray type who are all expected to be the workhorse for their teams. I can also easily argue that the WR's available at 3.11 can be as good as the one you take at 2.2 How? Calvin Johnson will be gone, at which point there is a huge amount of guys with the upside to be #2 overall or at least finish in the top 5. At 2.2 you will end up picking Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson but I could easily make the case that guys like Nicks, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Mike Wallace, Victor Cruz, Dez Bryant etc have just as much chance to be a top 5 WR. Some of these guys will be there at 3.11 QB, you have a point. If Brady or Brees are there, you will not likely find a QB as good at 3.11 but if the scoring is 4 point passing TD's, my argument would be "who cares?" Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted July 15, 2012 no way I take 2 rbs that low. I take a top tier wr and rb or brady/brees and an rb. You can argue that your rb at pick 2.2 is nearly the same as your rb at pick 3.11 but you cannot say that for a qb or top wr Id like to see what RBs you think you can get at back of round 3 or start round 4 that are anywhere near the ones you can get at end round 1 and start round 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted July 15, 2012 no way I take 2 rbs that low. I take a top tier wr and rb or brady/brees and an rb. You can argue that your rb at pick 2.2 is nearly the same as your rb at pick 3.11 but you cannot say that for a qb or top wr To show how off this statement is i went and did a little research. I went to cbs, fftoolbox and fftoday to see who is being drafted where. I dont think it is even debatable. RUNNING BACKS Round Overall Pick 1 11 MJD, Lynch, McFadden, Murray, Sjax, Richardson 2 14 Forte, Turner, AP 3 35 Gore, Sproles, Reggie Bush, Shonn Greene 4 38 Beanie Wells, BJGE, Doug Martin WIDE RECEIVERS Round Overall Pick 1 11 Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Roddy White 2 14 Wes Welker 3 35 AJ Green, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Victor Cruz, Nicks 4 38 Brandon Marshall, Mike Wallace, Miles Austin, Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SMath3333 10 Posted July 15, 2012 I also have the #11 pick in a 12 team PPR league. This is the most no-brainer strategy I've ever had to make. Barring any really weird scoring formats, 1.11 and 2.02 are way to early to take any TE or any WR NOT named Calvin Johnson. The options are simple. Depending on scoring format and personal preference, for first two rounds, either; 1. Grab Brady or Brees (or Rodgers if he is available) at 1.11 and pick from the similar crop of RBs available at 2.02 (Richardson, Lynch, Forte, Murray), 2. If a RB falls to you that you didn't expect at 1.11 (MJD or McFadden) and you are willing to assume the injury or contract risk that comes with it, grab a RB at 1.11 and take Brady or Brees if they are still there at 2.02. Otherwise grab best available RB at 2.02. Fast forward to Picks 3.11 and 4.02, If by some miracle Gronk or Graham is there, obviously grab them. Much more likely, those guys are gone and it is still too early to pick any other TE. At 3.11, you want to grab a WR. You will be surprised and pleased at some of the names that will fall to you (possibly Austin, Wallace, Marshall, maybe even Nicks). Grab a WR and smile. At 4.02, if you went QB/RB in the first two rounds, you definitely want to grab another RB here. Likely you will go with a Beanie Wells, BJGE, Martin, Bush. Its possible but unlikely that a high-risk, high-reward RB like AP or Charles will fall to you here but more likely some ###### already gambled way too early on these guys. If you went RB/RB in the first two rounds, and grabbed your WR at 3.11, and if you have a flex position, then you should definitely consider taking a third RB here too (names listed above). I would resist the temptation to take a second WR here, as I think you can still get excellent value in the 5th or 6th round. But if your format does not have a flex position, or if you must start 3 WRs, then you will need a second WR here. At QB, the Big 3 are long off the Board as are likely Stafford and Newton. I'd resist the temptation to take anyone beyond those 5 here as a similar guy will be available next time you pick. Fast forward again to Picks 5.11 and 6.02, If you went RB/RB in the first two rounds and you still need a QB, the first thing you need to do is check if the guy picking in the 12 th spot has a QB or not. If he already has a QB, then you should use 6.02 to select you QB. If he needs a QB too, then use 5.11 to select your QB. You're likely looking at Rivers, Ryan, or that Peyton Manning guy. Vick may possibly fall to you but if he does, you will need to take another QB due to the injury risk, so I'd focus on the three I mentioned. If by some chance, Romo or Eli fall to you, obviously grab them, but unless your scoring system is Very QB unfriendly, you are looking at Rivers, Ryan, and Peyton. With the "other" pick, you now have your first real decision of the draft. With 5 of your first six picks, you should have 3 RBs, 1 WR, and a QB. Use your sixth pick on either a TE or WR, depending on value available, and more important, the expected value available at 7.11. Pick your TE or WR and whichever you don't choose, grab that position at 7.11. If you grabbed an elite QB in the first two rounds, you are now sitting with QB/RB/RB/WR. At 5.11, you now have the flexibility to go best available RB, WR, or TE. If you pluck another RB at 5.11, then pick best available WR or TE at 6.02 and take the remaining position at 7.11 (see prior paragraph). If you go WR or TE at 5.11, then I strongly suggest that you take another RB at 6.02 as you will NOT be happy with your RB options at 7.11. Fast forward to picks 7.11 and 8.02, We already discussed what to do at 7.11. You will either take your TE or WR2. This is the position where you will be weaker, on a comparative basis, to most teams but you can't have all stars in every roster spot, can you? Now, at 8.02 you don't want ton take a K or Def, so this will be your first back-up pick. There might be one or two owners in your league that are trying to be real cute, and wait until the eighth round to select a QB, maybe a Cutler or Roethlisberger. Now is the time to really piss them off and take your QB2 before they take their QB1. They will either cuss you out, or make believe that they aren't concerned because there are still other good options. Trust me, they are fuming inside. I like taking my QB2 here because you are so vulnerable at QB to one bad hit, and you don't want to be that guy starting Joe Flacco every week because your QB1 went down. Another option is to pluck off your WR 3 here. This is an important pick for bye weeks and/ or if one of your top 2 WRs get injured. Fast forward to picks 9.11 and 10.02 If you took a QB2 in the 8th round, These picks should be spent on (I) a handcuff to your RB1 and (2) best available WR3. Fast forward to picks 11.11 and 12.02 Kicker and defense Fast forward to picks 13.11 and 14.02 Back-up TE and flier on a RB playing behind an injury prone starter. Picks 15 and on,.... You can handle it at this point. Good luck. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted July 15, 2012 I also have the #11 pick in a 12 team PPR league. This is the most no-brainer strategy I've ever had to make. Barring any really weird scoring formats, 1.11 and 2.02 are way to early to take any TE or any WR NOT named Calvin Johnson. The options are simple. Depending on scoring format and personal preference, for first two rounds, either; 1. Grab Brady or Brees (or Rodgers if he is available) at 1.11 and pick from the similar crop of RBs available at 2.02 (Richardson, Lynch, Forte, Murray), 2. If a RB falls to you that you didn't expect at 1.11 (MJD or McFadden) and you are willing to assume the injury or contract risk that comes with it, grab a RB at 1.11 and take Brady or Brees if they are still there at 2.02. Otherwise grab best available RB at 2.02. Good luck. I agree on all the above. The only decision that will have to be made will be if one of the QBs are still around(Brees, Brady or Stafford). I dont think any of the QBs will available at the end of round 1 atleast in my draft and even think there will be chance Stafford is gone. Im not touching Stafford that early, i dont think. The problem with taking a QB that early you are going to have a BIG hole in your lineup either at WR or RB. You just better damn well get one lucky with one of your late RBs or get the hand full of waiver wire gems. With the lack of stud RBs now i think the best value will be going RB/RB. But you are going to have to hope like hell to have someone like Ryan fall to you in the 5th or grab someone in the 4th. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted July 16, 2012 I tried a couple differ strategies in Mock drafts on FANTASY CALCULATOR. Fantasy Calculator is the most realistic mock draft site i have found because the auto picks are programmed to actually pick realistic unlike CBS where the program starts drafting TE's and kickers in round 7. BOLD = PROBABLE STARTER DRAFT 1 ----------------------------- 1-Darren McFadden/ RB (OAK) 5 2-Larry Fitzgerald/ WR (ARI) 10 3-Roddy White/ WR (ATL) 7 4-Michael Vick/ QB (PHI) 7 5-Miles Austin/ WR (DAL) 5 6-Brandon Lloyd/ WR (NE) 9 7-Stevan Ridley/ RB (NE) 9 8-Daniel Thomas/ RB (MIA) 7 9-Pierre Thomas/ RB (NO) 6 10-Rashard Mendenhall/ RB (PIT) 4 11-Jermaine Gresham/ TE (CIN) 8 12-Josh Freeman/ QB (TB) 5 13-Owen Daniels/ TE (HOU) 8 The guy in the 12 hole took 2 RB's leaving nothing i liked left for pick #2 so i went WR. So i went RB/WR/WR/QB/WR/WR. I would be absolutely loaded at WR but big problems at RB. DRAFT 2 ---------------------- 1-Drew Brees/QB (NO) 6 2-Marshawn Lynch/RB (SEA) 11 3-Jordy Nelson/ WR (GB) 10 4-Miles Austin/ WR (DAL) 5 5-Brandon Lloyd/ WR (NE) 6-Jason Witten/TE (DAL) 5 7-Daniel Thomas/ RB (MIA) 7 8-Mikel Leshoure/ RB (DET) 5 9-Pierre Thomas/ RB (NO) 6 10-Rashard Mendenhall/ RB (PIT) 4 11-Knowshon Moreno/ RB (DEN) 7 12-Brent Celek/ TE (PHI) 7 13-Nate Washington/ WR (TEN) 11 Going QB/RB it once again made me really bad at RB. Again i was able to get really good WRs. But i would rather have the team from draft 1. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SMath3333 10 Posted July 17, 2012 I tried a couple differ strategies in Mock drafts on FANTASY CALCULATOR. Fantasy Calculator is the most realistic mock draft site i have found because the auto picks are programmed to actually pick realistic unlike CBS where the program starts drafting TE's and kickers in round 7. BOLD = PROBABLE STARTER DRAFT 1 ----------------------------- 1-Darren McFadden/ RB (OAK) 5 2-Larry Fitzgerald/ WR (ARI) 10 3-Roddy White/ WR (ATL) 7 4-Michael Vick/ QB (PHI) 7 5-Miles Austin/ WR (DAL) 5 6-Brandon Lloyd/ WR (NE) 9 7-Stevan Ridley/ RB (NE) 9 8-Daniel Thomas/ RB (MIA) 7 9-Pierre Thomas/ RB (NO) 6 10-Rashard Mendenhall/ RB (PIT) 4 11-Jermaine Gresham/ TE (CIN) 8 12-Josh Freeman/ QB (TB) 5 13-Owen Daniels/ TE (HOU) 8 The guy in the 12 hole took 2 RB's leaving nothing i liked left for pick #2 so i went WR. So i went RB/WR/WR/QB/WR/WR. I would be absolutely loaded at WR but big problems at RB. DRAFT 2 ---------------------- 1-Drew Brees/QB (NO) 6 2-Marshawn Lynch/RB (SEA) 11 3-Jordy Nelson/ WR (GB) 10 4-Miles Austin/ WR (DAL) 5 5-Brandon Lloyd/ WR (NE) 6-Jason Witten/TE (DAL) 5 7-Daniel Thomas/ RB (MIA) 7 8-Mikel Leshoure/ RB (DET) 5 9-Pierre Thomas/ RB (NO) 6 10-Rashard Mendenhall/ RB (PIT) 4 11-Knowshon Moreno/ RB (DEN) 7 12-Brent Celek/ TE (PHI) 7 13-Nate Washington/ WR (TEN) 11 Going QB/RB it once again made me really bad at RB. Again i was able to get really good WRs. But i would rather have the team from draft 1. Using the strategy I outined above, your Team 1 would look a lot better if you had picked the best available RB at 2.02 instead of Fitz. Realize Fitz is a stud but you would have been fine at WR with Roddy/Austin/Lloyd. For your Team 2, I beg to differ that going QB/RB made you really bad at RB. What made you really bad at RB was going WR/WR in rounds 3 and 4. You needed to take a RB in round 3 or 4, grab Lloyd in round 5 and then take a serviceable WR3 in round 7. Just my opinion. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Moz 69 Posted July 17, 2012 Stephen Davis Tommy Maddox Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Matt Mueller 146 Posted July 17, 2012 Using the strategy I outined above, your Team 1 would look a lot better if you had picked the best available RB at 2.02 instead of Fitz. Realize Fitz is a stud but you would have been fine at WR with Roddy/Austin/Lloyd. For your Team 2, I beg to differ that going QB/RB made you really bad at RB. What made you really bad at RB was going WR/WR in rounds 3 and 4. You needed to take a RB in round 3 or 4, grab Lloyd in round 5 and then take a serviceable WR3 in round 7. Just my opinion. I concur with this. I think you need 2 running backs, of the non injured variety, in the first 3, ideally, if not, 4 rounds. There is enough depth at wr that I personally would be ok having guys like Austin/Lloyd/Maclin/Bowe/ect end up as my 1/2 combo and taking an upside WR 3 like D. Moore, T. Young, DHB, ect Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted July 17, 2012 I concur with this. I think you need 2 running backs, of the non injured variety, in the first 3, ideally, if not, 4 rounds. There is enough depth at wr that I personally would be ok having guys like Austin/Lloyd/Maclin/Bowe/ect end up as my 1/2 combo and taking an upside WR 3 like D. Moore, T. Young, DHB, ect Yes i agree 100% too. I also wanted to see what ended up with at RB if took WR. I do not see me changing strategy(RB/RB) as of today. If Brees or Brady are available i just need to fight the urge to pick them. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CedarGrovePack 2 Posted July 17, 2012 Yes i agree 100% too. I also wanted to see what ended up with at RB if took WR. I do not see me changing strategy(RB/RB) as of today. If Brees or Brady are available i just need to fight the urge to pick them. I'll pick Graham or Gronk in rd2 anytime. Built-in advantage every game. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted July 17, 2012 I'll pick Graham or Gronk in rd2 anytime. Built-in advantage every game. Im going to make a prediction. If you draft Gronk in the 2nd round you will not get 2nd round value out of him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Busted by the Feds 9 Posted July 17, 2012 no way I take 2 rbs that low. I take a top tier wr and rb or brady/brees and an rb. You can argue that your rb at pick 2.2 is nearly the same as your rb at pick 3.11 but you cannot say that for a qb or top wr I'm thinking about this plan too . My league hasn't drawn the spots yet, but if I get something out of the Top 5, my plan right now is : 1st -- Megatron 2nd -- Best remaining of the top 5 QB's 3rd -- Gronk or Graham 4th on -- best RB available, mixed with best WR available I will adjust if necessary, of course . Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted July 17, 2012 I'm thinking about this plan too . My league hasn't drawn the spots yet, but if I get something out of the Top 5, my plan right now is : 1st -- Megatron 2nd -- Best remaining of the top 5 QB's 3rd -- Gronk or Graham 4th on -- best RB available, mixed with best WR available I will adjust if necessary, of course . Your both nuts than. The difference between the RBs you can get at 1.11/2.2 and in 3.11 and 4.2 are HUGE compared to the WRs you can get in those spots. Its not even close. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SMath3333 10 Posted July 18, 2012 Your both nuts than. The difference between the RBs you can get at 1.11/2.2 and in 3.11 and 4.2 are HUGE compared to the WRs you can get in those spots. Its not even close. He is correct. Drafting from the 11 spot, you MUST take at least one RB with your first two picks. Otherwise, it will be a long season. The only logical options from the 11 hole for your first two picks are RB/QB, QB/RB, or RB/RB. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MDC 7,404 Posted July 18, 2012 I'd probably double up on RBs - something like Forte and Murray. Either that or I'd take Bree's or Stafford with a RB. After Calvin is off the board I see almost no difference between the 2nd and 10th WRs on the board so I'd wait on that position. I'll never take a TE that early. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted July 18, 2012 He is correct. Drafting from the 11 spot, you MUST take at least one RB with your first two picks. Otherwise, it will be a long season. The only logical options from the 11 hole for your first two picks are RB/QB, QB/RB, or RB/RB. The last mock i did out of 11 hole all the RBs id feel comfortable taking at 11 were gone so i took Brady at 1.11 and Murray at 2.2 and did not really like the results. While i love Brady id rather have a Romo and MJD as RB1 and Murray as RB2. In this case the RB/RB strategy would not work for me cause im not very confident in guys who were left so had to shift gears. Round 1 1-Foster 2-Rice 3-McCoy 4-Mathews 5-Rodgers 6-Chris Johnson 7-Calvin Johnson 8-MJD 9-McFadden 10-Forte 11-Brady 12-Richardson -------------------- 13-Jimmy Graham 14-Murray FROM 11 HOLE 1-Brady 2-Murray 3-Turner 4-Gore 5-Miles Austin 6-DeSean Jackson 7-Tamme 8-Philip Rivers(hell couldnt pass this up even though mock) 9-Daniel Thomas 10-Pierre Thomas 11-Knowshon Moreno Damn getting in a mock on fantasy calculator at this time of night is not easy!!!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SMath3333 10 Posted July 18, 2012 The last mock i did out of 11 hole all the RBs id feel comfortable taking at 11 were gone so i took Brady at 1.11 and Murray at 2.2 and did not really like the results. While i love Brady id rather have a Romo and MJD as RB1 and Murray as RB2. In this case the RB/RB strategy would not work for me cause im not very confident in guys who were left so had to shift gears. Round 1 FROM 11 HOLE 1-Brady 2-Murray 3-Turner 4-Gore 5-Miles Austin 6-DeSean Jackson 7-Tamme 8-Philip Rivers(hell couldnt pass this up even though mock) 9-Daniel Thomas 10-Pierre Thomas 11-Knowshon Moreno I think you did pretty well. This team needs to pick up another WR Along the way via trade or waiver wire but looks good to me otherwise. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
b0younce 0 Posted July 18, 2012 Sorry, I disagree 100% ( well maybe 90% ) I take Brees/Brady ALL day over Lynch/Murray or whatever other RB you are suggesting. I also like to take one of the top 2/3 wr if available. But I can agree with the pick at 3.11 you can get a AJ Green or Nicks and it would be close. So take a rb with your second pick. But I will argue all day not to take rb/rb with your first two picks then get stuck with a good/decent qb instead of an elite. I have been commish of my home league the past 11 years and 10-11 years the guy that has won has had an elite qb. It is just so tough to win the league with eli, matt ryan, rivers or romo. I think it is kind of funny that the guys you mention lynch and murray were drafted way lower than 3.11 last year. I can agree you take rb with one but NO WAY with both. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted July 18, 2012 Sorry, I disagree 100% ( well maybe 90% ) I take Brees/Brady ALL day over Lynch/Murray or whatever other RB you are suggesting. I also like to take one of the top 2/3 wr if available. But I can agree with the pick at 3.11 you can get a AJ Green or Nicks and it would be close. So take a rb with your second pick. But I will argue all day not to take rb/rb with your first two picks then get stuck with a good/decent qb instead of an elite. I have been commish of my home league the past 11 years and 10-11 years the guy that has won has had an elite qb. It is just so tough to win the league with eli, matt ryan, rivers or romo. I think it is kind of funny that the guys you mention lynch and murray were drafted way lower than 3.11 last year. I can agree you take rb with one but NO WAY with both. I wouldnt touch Lynch right now so RB pool just got smaller. Yes those guys were drafted late or picked up off waiver. Every year there are going to be 3 or 4 guys like that. So if you grab Brees, Brady or Stafford down at bottom and get lucky and get one of those 3 or 4 you are in good shape. It is interesting you mention the guys in your league who win have one of those stud QBs. I need to go back and look at some of league i play in too and check that out. I think one of guys did that and same thing happened. So maybe I need to do some extra research. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CedarGrovePack 2 Posted July 20, 2012 Im going to make a prediction. If you draft Gronk in the 2nd round you will not get 2nd round value out of him. Gronk & Graham are for sure worth a 2nd rd pk. TE isn't deep. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
72dolfan 5 Posted July 20, 2012 I also have the #11 pick in a 12 team PPR league. This is the most no-brainer strategy I've ever had to make. Barring any really weird scoring formats, 1.11 and 2.02 are way to early to take any TE or any WR NOT named Calvin Johnson. The options are simple. Depending on scoring format and personal preference, for first two rounds, either; 1. Grab Brady or Brees (or Rodgers if he is available) at 1.11 and pick from the similar crop of RBs available at 2.02 (Richardson, Lynch, Forte, Murray), 2. If a RB falls to you that you didn't expect at 1.11 (MJD or McFadden) and you are willing to assume the injury or contract risk that comes with it, grab a RB at 1.11 and take Brady or Brees if they are still there at 2.02. Otherwise grab best available RB at 2.02. Fast forward to Picks 3.11 and 4.02, If by some miracle Gronk or Graham is there, obviously grab them. Much more likely, those guys are gone and it is still too early to pick any other TE. At 3.11, you want to grab a WR. You will be surprised and pleased at some of the names that will fall to you (possibly Austin, Wallace, Marshall, maybe even Nicks). Grab a WR and smile. At 4.02, if you went QB/RB in the first two rounds, you definitely want to grab another RB here. Likely you will go with a Beanie Wells, BJGE, Martin, Bush. Its possible but unlikely that a high-risk, high-reward RB like AP or Charles will fall to you here but more likely some ###### already gambled way too early on these guys. If you went RB/RB in the first two rounds, and grabbed your WR at 3.11, and if you have a flex position, then you should definitely consider taking a third RB here too (names listed above). I would resist the temptation to take a second WR here, as I think you can still get excellent value in the 5th or 6th round. But if your format does not have a flex position, or if you must start 3 WRs, then you will need a second WR here. At QB, the Big 3 are long off the Board as are likely Stafford and Newton. I'd resist the temptation to take anyone beyond those 5 here as a similar guy will be available next time you pick. Fast forward again to Picks 5.11 and 6.02, If you went RB/RB in the first two rounds and you still need a QB, the first thing you need to do is check if the guy picking in the 12 th spot has a QB or not. If he already has a QB, then you should use 6.02 to select you QB. If he needs a QB too, then use 5.11 to select your QB. You're likely looking at Rivers, Ryan, or that Peyton Manning guy. Vick may possibly fall to you but if he does, you will need to take another QB due to the injury risk, so I'd focus on the three I mentioned. If by some chance, Romo or Eli fall to you, obviously grab them, but unless your scoring system is Very QB unfriendly, you are looking at Rivers, Ryan, and Peyton. With the "other" pick, you now have your first real decision of the draft. With 5 of your first six picks, you should have 3 RBs, 1 WR, and a QB. Use your sixth pick on either a TE or WR, depending on value available, and more important, the expected value available at 7.11. Pick your TE or WR and whichever you don't choose, grab that position at 7.11. If you grabbed an elite QB in the first two rounds, you are now sitting with QB/RB/RB/WR. At 5.11, you now have the flexibility to go best available RB, WR, or TE. If you pluck another RB at 5.11, then pick best available WR or TE at 6.02 and take the remaining position at 7.11 (see prior paragraph). If you go WR or TE at 5.11, then I strongly suggest that you take another RB at 6.02 as you will NOT be happy with your RB options at 7.11. Fast forward to picks 7.11 and 8.02, We already discussed what to do at 7.11. You will either take your TE or WR2. This is the position where you will be weaker, on a comparative basis, to most teams but you can't have all stars in every roster spot, can you? Now, at 8.02 you don't want ton take a K or Def, so this will be your first back-up pick. There might be one or two owners in your league that are trying to be real cute, and wait until the eighth round to select a QB, maybe a Cutler or Roethlisberger. Now is the time to really piss them off and take your QB2 before they take their QB1. They will either cuss you out, or make believe that they aren't concerned because there are still other good options. Trust me, they are fuming inside. I like taking my QB2 here because you are so vulnerable at QB to one bad hit, and you don't want to be that guy starting Joe Flacco every week because your QB1 went down. Another option is to pluck off your WR 3 here. This is an important pick for bye weeks and/ or if one of your top 2 WRs get injured. Fast forward to picks 9.11 and 10.02 If you took a QB2 in the 8th round, These picks should be spent on (I) a handcuff to your RB1 and (2) best available WR3. Fast forward to picks 11.11 and 12.02 Kicker and defense Fast forward to picks 13.11 and 14.02 Back-up TE and flier on a RB playing behind an injury prone starter. Picks 15 and on,.... You can handle it at this point. Good luck. You write some pretty good fiction there. Don't get me wrong, your reasoning is sound, but "MANY" of the players you say to grab where you say to grab them are long gone. A lot of league are keeper leagues so players like, say, Julio Jones were drafted late last year (round 7-9). So in our league, and many others, that owner can keep him as their 5th round selection. When you have enough of those types of players gone, you see QBs like Rivers were gone in the 3rd round. And WRs like Austin and Wallace were gone in the 2nd round. Keep in mind, 12 teams with potentionally 12 keepers (being kept in rounds 2-5, most between 4-5) those players you speak of are just not there where you say pick them. Again, I lke your thought process, but a lot of it is fictional. 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72dolfan 5 Posted July 20, 2012 I'd probably double up on RBs - something like Forte and Murray. Either that or I'd take Bree's or Stafford with a RB. After Calvin is off the board I see almost no difference between the 2nd and 10th WRs on the board so I'd wait on that position. I'll never take a TE that early. Fair enough. But is the 10th best WR going to be there at 3.11? Not in our 12 team league. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SMath3333 10 Posted July 21, 2012 You write some pretty good fiction there. Don't get me wrong, your reasoning is sound, but "MANY" of the players you say to grab where you say to grab them are long gone. A lot of league are keeper leagues so players like, say, Julio Jones were drafted late last year (round 7-9). So in our league, and many others, that owner can keep him as their 5th round selection. When you have enough of those types of players gone, you see QBs like Rivers were gone in the 3rd round. And WRs like Austin and Wallace were gone in the 2nd round. Keep in mind, 12 teams with potentionally 12 keepers (being kept in rounds 2-5, most between 4-5) those players you speak of are just not there where you say pick them. Again, I lke your thought process, but a lot of it is fictional. Just to be clear, in a Keeper League all bets are off on the players I thought would be available. My write-up only applies to redraft leagues. Regarding Philip Rivers, see Post #28 where he went in the 8th round ! I was targeting him as late fifth in my "fictional" write -up. Again, if you are in a Keeper league, what I wrote is worthless. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Raider 84 29 Posted July 21, 2012 Stephen Davis Tommy Maddox Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
72dolfan 5 Posted July 22, 2012 Just to be clear, in a Keeper League all bets are off on the players I thought would be available. My write-up only applies to redraft leagues. Regarding Philip Rivers, see Post #28 where he went in the 8th round ! I was targeting him as late fifth in my "fictional" write -up. Again, if you are in a Keeper league, what I wrote is worthless. I agree with your last five words. I kid, I kid. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted July 23, 2012 Just to be clear, in a Keeper League all bets are off on the players I thought would be available. My write-up only applies to redraft leagues. Regarding Philip Rivers, see Post #28 where he went in the 8th round ! I was targeting him as late fifth in my "fictional" write -up. Again, if you are in a Keeper league, what I wrote is worthless. In keeper league its kinda hard to talk much of draft strategy without knowing who is kept and most are not going to take the time to read that post Because all fantasy players dont give 2 shots about anyone's team beside their own. They only want info that will help their team and someone else's keeper league does not do that. But going back to the 11th pick. Ive done quite a few mock drafts and have found there are 2 ways to start your draft in the 11 hole and end up with good teams. Start RB/RB, RB/QB or QB/RB. The QB combo you have to get lucky and have some people fall though. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wicked joe 0 Posted August 4, 2012 Murray and Richardson if I can get them. Then I start working off Jimmy Graham and Gronk. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted August 4, 2012 Murray and Richardson if I can get them. Then I start working off Jimmy Graham and Gronk. Id say you should have your choice of those 4. I love Murray but he worries me. While i dont usually stay away from picks because they "might" get injured. But he has potential to put up HUGE #s 2007-dislocated knee cap 2008-hamstring injury and missed national championship game 2010-questionable leading up to B12 championship game with knee injury 2011-started pro career on non football injury list with hamstring injury 2011-broken ankle ended season after 12 games “People always want to mention the injuries, but I missed four games in four years and that was in the beginning of my career, and I had no [serious] problems after that,” Murray said in April, via Rainer Sabin of the Dallas Morning News. -from link below Cowboys taking a big risk with DeMarco Murray Im staying away from any rookie with 1st or 2nd round pick and TE's that high. Broke my rule and took Mathews in 2nd couple years ago and he was awful and think same year broke my rule and took Finley early and he went down early. So you may hit a home run with your picks but im not touching any of them. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PATSSOX 22 Posted August 12, 2012 Already had keeper draft this afternoon and tonight have an online draft and just found out i have the #11 pick in it Perfect practice for my little more important draft the 20th which i have the #11 pick. Im gonna go QB first i think as long as Brady or Brees is there. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites