Trent Richardson - 6th overall?

[murf74 461]

1-2 are the same thing.

3. It's really 5 games unless your league plays week 17.

5. The OL is very good. Thomas and Mack are the best LT/C combo in football.

 

4 and 6 are valid.

 

1 and 2 are not the same. He is a rookie and so will his qb. That is a very bad combo....perhaps a horrible combo

 

Ok so 5 games with horrible matchup just in division. I didnt look at the rest of his schedule.

 

Ok 2 of their oline is good

[MDC 5,895]

1 and 2 are not the same. He is a rookie and so will his qb. That is a very bad combo....perhaps a horrible combo

 

Ok so 5 games with horrible matchup just in division. I didnt look at the rest of his schedule.

 

Ok 2 of their oline is good

 

Sorry I misunderstood on 1-2.

 

5 matchups are bad but the out of division games are better than average so far as CLE's matchup schedule against run defenses.

 

The Browns OL is significantly better than average and arguably a Top 10 unit.

[murf74 461]

Sorry I misunderstood on 1-2.

 

5 matchups are bad but the out of division games are better than average so far as CLE's matchup schedule against run defenses.

 

The Browns OL is significantly better than average and arguably a Top 10 unit.

 

Top ten in what?

[giraldi02 470]

Sorry I misunderstood on 1-2.

 

5 matchups are bad but the out of division games are better than average so far as CLE's matchup schedule against run defenses.

 

 

I wouldn't call matchups against the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants better than average. The cowboys were 7th in rush defense and all three of those teams can put points on the board and pressure the quarterback as well as having OUTSTANDING front fours. That's 8 games. The Bills should have an improved front seven this season as well.

 

The AFC west is garbage and the Colts defense is as well. Skins arent that formidable as of now..So what. Six games that appear favorable?

[browns16-0 30]

Top ten in what?

 

I believe they should be a much improved ol. They have a pro bowl center, and probably the best lt in the game right now. The Browns also spent the 37th overall pick on a right tackle, coupled with a 5th rd pick on a guard for depth. Returning is a 3rd year guard who was a 3rd rd pick, and also another guard who started all 16 games as a rookie. Obviously it doesn't matter where players are picked, if they can play then can play. I am just stating that the Browns have spent a ton of resources in an effort to make their oline a "potential" top 10 unit for sure. Their major problem was at rt last season and hopefully that has been addressed with the selection of Mitchel Schwartz. Who knows how they gel and perform next season, but if this isn't one of the top ol's in the NFL next season I would be surprised.

[giraldi02 470]

Top ten in what?

 

 

Minutes spent on the bench as their offense was inept? They averaged 26.5 yards per drive (24th in the NFL) and drives ended where they punted over 51% of the time. Yeah. I really want a piece of THAT offense

[murf74 461]

Minutes spent on the bench as their offense was inept? They averaged 26.5 yards per drive (24th in the NFL) and drives ended where they punted over 51% of the time. Yeah. I really want a piece of THAT offense

 

That's what I am saying. Cleveland doesn't even resemble an nfl offense. The oline has to take some of the blame.

 

And still wondering top ten in what? 3rd lowest rushing yards..... gave up 39 sacks only 3 less than pit's awful oline last year and with ben holding ball for 10 seconds hopping on 1 leg

[MDC 5,895]

Top ten in what?

 

Overall talent? Potential as a unit? I think Cleveland's OL is clearly above average and could be among the 10 best in the NFL.

 

The Browns have the single best LT in football and one of the best centers. The guard spots were "okay" and they're starting a rook at RT. The entire unit is at least young and expected to improve around Thomas and Mack, who are already excellent players.

 

Obviously it's hard to grade an OL statistically when you have Colt McCoy throwing to Greg Little and handing the ball off to Montario Hardesty. But this line made Peyton Hillis a Pro Bowler and Jerome Harrison nearly broke the single game rushing record running behind them, and they didn't have any passing game back then either. I think the trouble moving the ball has a lot more to do with the lack of a QB or talent at the skill positions than the performance of the line.

 

I don't think I'm alone in this judgement - nearly every football magazine or site (fantasy or otherwise) has the Browns OL ranked in the 10-15 range. That's pretty impressive for a team that was among the worst offenses in football last year.

 

All I'm saying is that of all the reasons to be worried about Trent Richardson his OL is the least of them. The Browns' OL is at least as good if not better than the Jags, Chargers and Raiders and I don't see people passing on MJD, Matthews or McFadden because of it.

 

Now whether the passing game can do anything is a whole other story and a legit complaint.

[murf74 461]

Overall talent? Potential as a unit? I think Cleveland's OL is clearly above average and could be among the 10 best in the NFL.

 

The Browns have the single best LT in football and one of the best centers. The guard spots were "okay" and they're starting a rook at RT. The entire unit is at least young and expected to improve around Thomas and Mack, who are already excellent players.

 

Obviously it's hard to grade an OL statistically when you have Colt McCoy throwing to Greg Little and handing the ball off to Montario Hardesty. But this line made Peyton Hillis a Pro Bowler and Jerome Harrison nearly broke the single game rushing record running behind them, and they didn't have any passing game back then either. I think the trouble moving the ball has a lot more to do with the lack of a QB or talent at the skill positions than the performance of the line.

 

I don't think I'm alone in this judgement - nearly every football magazine or site (fantasy or otherwise) has the Browns OL ranked in the 10-15 range. That's pretty impressive for a team that was among the worst offenses in football last year.

 

All I'm saying is that of all the reasons to be worried about Trent Richardson his OL is the least of them. The Browns' OL is at least as good if not better than the Jags, Chargers and Raiders and I don't see people passing on MJD, Matthews or McFadden because of it.

 

Now whether the passing game can do anything is a whole other story and a legit complaint.

 

Wow..MJD and McFadden equals and never played a down in the NFL.

 

Ok

[polecatt 403]

I think he is being over valued a little. He is certainly the top rookie and a worthy RB2 or possibly even RB1 but to think he is going to perform in the top 5 is a little optimistic. They will be starting, most likely, a rookie QB, their OL isn't good and probably won't score a lot. That means he will be limited in TDs. Limited in TDs means limited in the ranks. I expect 7-8 TDs but not 13. I think he'll probably get around 1200-1300 total yards but not 1700. Once again a very solid fantasy RB but not in the top notch. That will probably come in a year or two.

[MDC 5,895]

Wow..MJD and McFadden equals and never played a down in the NFL.

 

Ok

 

I think RG3 is a better pick at QB than Flacco or Schaub and he's never played a down in the NFL either. Fantasy football is about figuring out who's going to be good this year, not last year.

[murf74 461]

I think RG3 is a better pick at QB than Flacco or Schaub and he's never played a down in the NFL either. Fantasy football is about figuring out who's going to be good this year, not last year.

You picked 2 statistically average qbs not the same as picking an MJD who is a top 5 about every year. MJD is to RB as Brees is to QB.

[MDC 5,895]

You picked 2 statistically average qbs not the same as picking an MJD who is a top 5 about every year. MJD is to RB as Brees is to QB.

 

What's your point? MJD will be elite this year cause he was last year?

[murf74 461]

What's your point? MJD will be elite this year cause he was last year?

 

So you base nothing off history? Every year is new but I guess you are such a genius you wipe the slate completely clean. I mean just cause Brees was elite least year it means nothing in 2012 right? A. Foster he ain't got nothing on Richardson on that lethal offense with that easy schedule

 

Don't really understand your outright disregard of history. MJD had no sign of slowing down and now they actually have a WR they must pay attention to and a tight end turning into a weapon. Obviously if he is a holdout come draft time you change his ranking but otherwise you can't pass on MJD for the rook unless its a free league then who really cares

[MDC 5,895]

So you base nothing off history? Every year is new but I guess you are such a genius you wipe the slate completely clean. I mean just cause Brees was elite least year it means nothing in 2012 right? A. Foster he ain't got nothing on Richardson on that lethal offense with that easy schedule

 

Don't really understand your outright disregard of history. MJD had no sign of slowing down and now they actually have a WR they must pay attention to and a tight end turning into a weapon. Obviously if he is a holdout come draft time you change his ranking but otherwise you can't pass on MJD for the rook unless its a free league then who really cares

 

Again man, what's your point? I've said all along that I'm mostly playing devil's advocate based on FFI's ranking of Trent at #6. I think that's a generous ranking but it's not totally crazy IMO to put him among the 4-7 or so ranked RBs.

 

MJD has history on his side, but 1) his situation so far as surrounding talent really isn't much better than Richardson's if at all and 2) RBs with MJD's workload over the past few years tend to go into sharp decline very fast.

 

Does Trent deserve to get picked over MJD? I really don't know. In the 6-10 range I'd be looking to take Calvin or an elite QB over either of them to be honest.

 

Would it totally stun me if Richardson ends up with around 1,400 total yards and double digit TDs while MJD loses carries to Jennings and struggles with injuries after last season? No not at all.

 

Obviously if your approach is to rank every player according to what he did last year you're going to have MJD pretty high. Good for you.

[murf74 461]

Again man, what's your point? I've said all along that I'm mostly playing devil's advocate based on FFI's ranking of Trent at #6. I think that's a generous ranking but it's not totally crazy IMO to put him among the 4-7 or so ranked RBs.

 

MJD has history on his side, but 1) his situation so far as surrounding talent really isn't much better than Richardson's if at all and 2) RBs with MJD's workload over the past few years tend to go into sharp decline very fast.

 

Does Trent deserve to get picked over MJD? I really don't know. In the 6-10 range I'd be looking to take Calvin or an elite QB over either of them to be honest.

 

Would it totally stun me if Richardson ends up with around 1,400 total yards and double digit TDs while MJD loses carries to Jennings and struggles with injuries after last season? No not at all.

 

Obviously if your approach is to rank every player according to what he did last year you're going to have MJD pretty high. Good for you.

 

Unless he is a holdout late you would be insane to draft Richardson over MJD. Jennings is no threat and gets no more carries than any other backup.

 

Oh and you are very insane to think cleveland has any weapons close to Blackman, Laurent Robinson and Mercedes. If anything this should be MJD best situation in his career and he is only 27. And MJD schedule is easier. Slam dunk

[cavern 70]

not wanting to chime in on the TR vs MJD debate... however i do want to point out that, imo, the steelers are goig to be sliding a bit on defense. and i say this as a fan of the steelers... the steelers NEVER used to hang on to their aging defenders like this - a player like a james harrison would have his career year and they'd trade him or let him hit FA - and you'd be thinking "WTF are they thinking" and then, the next year, the newest stud would be born in that same spot. and it worked. i'm not sure exactly why philosophies have changed, but i can't imagine it's going to work. so, in considering TR, i wouldn't be nearly as worried about 2 games against the steelers as i used to be... fwiw

[murf74 461]

not wanting to chime in on the TR vs MJD debate... however i do want to point out that, imo, the steelers are goig to be sliding a bit on defense. and i say this as a fan of the steelers... the steelers NEVER used to hang on to their aging defenders like this - a player like a james harrison would have his career year and they'd trade him or let him hit FA - and you'd be thinking "WTF are they thinking" and then, the next year, the newest stud would be born in that same spot. and it worked. i'm not sure exactly why philosophies have changed, but i can't imagine it's going to work. so, in considering TR, i wouldn't be nearly as worried about 2 games against the steelers as i used to be... fwiw

 

Aaron smith hasn't really played in 2 years so his omission is irrelevant. Farrior was a liability last year. Foote is a consistent guy and that rookie from Mia may be in the mix or Sylvester to make up for Farrior. That big NT will help plug middle too. I think their run defense will be strong as usual...but losing Gay will hurt pass defense in nickel and dime especially

[MDC 5,895]

Unless he is a holdout late you would be insane to draft Richardson over MJD. Jennings is no threat and gets no more carries than any other backup.

 

To be honest with you I won't be drafting either of them. I'm picking 8 in my main money league and I'll almost certainly be going with a QB or WR because it's too early for Trent and I'm very leary of the other three RBs who could be on the board in that spot (MJD, CJ2, Matthews).

 

Oh and you are very insane to think cleveland has any weapons close to Blackman, Laurent Robinson and Mercedes. If anything this should be MJD best situation in his career and he is only 27. And MJD schedule is easier. Slam dunk

 

Fine, we'll see at the end of the year.

[PackYourNut 47]

History says backs with multiple 300 carry season in row tend to break down.

 

History says RBs that holdout, tend to play like ###### that year.

 

History says a lot of things...

 

I'm drafting in the 10th spot and my guess is MJD will be there... At this point, I'm torn... but wouldnt take Trent there either...

[cavern 70]

Aaron smith hasn't really played in 2 years so his omission is irrelevant. Farrior was a liability last year. Foote is a consistent guy and that rookie from Mia may be in the mix or Sylvester to make up for Farrior. That big NT will help plug middle too. I think their run defense will be strong as usual...but losing Gay will hurt pass defense in nickel and dime especially

 

maybe the run defense will be just as strong as always - but i'll believe it when i see it. you go through their depth chart and you see lots of guys who've been in the league a LONG time. the whole "we hit you in the mouth harder than anyone else" attitude works a heck of alot better when you're younger. our old guys will be wearing down and be nicked up as the season goes on. same thing as last year. i hope i'm wrong, but i'm worried

[The Moz 69]

IN a NON PPR - 4 poitn passing TD league it would be hard to NOT take Trich 6th overall -- after Rice , Foster , McCoy , CJIII , and Mathews

[MDC 5,895]

IN a NON PPR - 4 poitn passing TD league it would be hard to NOT take Trich 6th overall -- after Rice , Foster , McCoy , CJIII , and Mathews

 

The reason I started this thread is because I'm picking 8 overall in a 14-team money league and I don't like many of the likely options at this spot. I'm thinking the following will be gone by my pick:

 

Foster

McCoy

Rice

Rodgers

Brady

 

Other than being fairly certain those five are off the board I really couldn't say. That means my best available options at RB are likely to be:

 

CJ2K

Matthews

MJD

Trent

 

At least one of these will be gone by the time they reach my pick. I don't really know how I'd rank them, since I wouldn't call any of these players a slam dunk. I guess MJD or CJ are the "safe" choices but I'm tempted to swing for the fences with one of the others.

 

I really hate taking a QB this early and Calvin is the only wideout I'd even consider using a first round pick on this year.

 

[murf74 461]

Take brees or calvin depending on your scoring....if it is more pro qb or wr

[The Moz 69]

The reason I started this thread is because I'm picking 8 overall in a 14-team money league and I don't like many of the likely options at this spot. I'm thinking the following will be gone by my pick:

 

Foster

McCoy

Rice

Rodgers

Brady

 

Other than being fairly certain those five are off the board I really couldn't say. That means my best available options at RB are likely to be:

 

CJ2K

Matthews

MJD

Trent

 

At least one of these will be gone by the time they reach my pick. I don't really know how I'd rank them, since I wouldn't call any of these players a slam dunk. I guess MJD or CJ are the "safe" choices but I'm tempted to swing for the fences with one of the others.

 

I really hate taking a QB this early and Calvin is the only wideout I'd even consider using a first round pick on this year Calvin will be gone before you pick if it's PPR.

 

 

Even in QB - 6points a TD

 

drafts have been going -- Rice - McCoy - Foster ( pick an order for the top 3 ) then Megatron , Mathews , CJIII , Rodgers -- that's likely the top 7. T. Richardson is the safest Back you could take while DMC the highest upside -- and Brady the safest but if you take Brady there might not be much left at RB -- I say take TRich and then a WR and go for a Ryan or Manning latter on.

[IGotWorms 3,317]

Unless he is a holdout late you would be insane to draft Richardson over MJD. Jennings is no threat and gets no more carries than any other backup.

 

Oh and you are very insane to think cleveland has any weapons close to Blackman, Laurent Robinson and Mercedes. If anything this should be MJD best situation in his career and he is only 27. And MJD schedule is easier. Slam dunk

 

Are you serious? Yeah the Browns are lacking in talent, but so is Jacksonvile...bigtime. Gabbert sucks balls. Blackmon is a rookie. Laurent Robinson was a perennial disappointment until last year. Marcedes regressed significantly last year (and who wouldn't, with Gabbert throwing them the ball?).

 

I'm not commenting on the overall question of whether Trent Richardson should be ranked higher than MJD (I highly doubt he should, though I am concerned about MJD's contract status and his cumulative workload). I just think it's absurd to say someone would have to be "very insane" to think Cleveland's talent situation is similar to Jacksonville's. They both focking suck.

[420allstars 13]

I just think it's absurd to say someone would have to be "very insane" to think Cleveland's talent situation is similar to Jacksonville's. They both focking suck.

 

[The Bears are Back 0]

The reason I started this thread is because I'm picking 8 overall in a 14-team money league and I don't like many of the likely options at this spot. I'm thinking the following will be gone by my pick:

 

Foster

McCoy

Rice

Rodgers

Brady

 

Other than being fairly certain those five are off the board I really couldn't say. That means my best available options at RB are likely to be:

 

CJ2K

Matthews

MJD

Trent

 

At least one of these will be gone by the time they reach my pick. I don't really know how I'd rank them, since I wouldn't call any of these players a slam dunk. I guess MJD or CJ are the "safe" choices but I'm tempted to swing for the fences with one of the others.

 

I really hate taking a QB this early and Calvin is the only wideout I'd even consider using a first round pick on this year.

 

 

What are your thoughts on Forte? Granted, I'm a homer, but I feel like he's one of the safest pickls in the 8-15 range. Sure, Bush will get the GL carries, but Forte never converts those anyway. He's usually good for a good chunk of receiving yards, and with Marshall in the fold there may be more room to run. I pick 8th this year as well. I'm hoping CJ falls to me but I'm considering Forte if he doesn't. Then maybe Richardson or DMC coming back. My league is only 10 teams though, so you might not have that option.

[MDC 5,895]

What are your thoughts on Forte? Granted, I'm a homer, but I feel like he's one of the safest pickls in the 8-15 range. Sure, Bush will get the GL carries, but Forte never converts those anyway. He's usually good for a good chunk of receiving yards, and with Marshall in the fold there may be more room to run. I pick 8th this year as well. I'm hoping CJ falls to me but I'm considering Forte if he doesn't. Then maybe Richardson or DMC coming back. My league is only 10 teams though, so you might not have that option.

 

I like Forte but to me, but to me he's more of a high second tier / early 2nd round pick than someone I'd be willing to take at 8-10 overall. At the end of the first round in my 14 teamer I'd consider going with a QB or another RB and Forte but I'd be very reluctant to spend such a high pick on a guy who's ceiling is somewhat limited - he'll pile up yards but he's never been much of a TD scorer.

 

I've been trying to trade down to the 12-14 spot in my league and I'd gladly take something like TRich / Forte or Forte / Murray at that point in the draft. I wouldn't even consider him at 8 overall. At that point I'd just as soon go with Brees or a safer pick at QB / WR and hope for some combination of Bradshaw or Greene in the 3/4 round range.

[Ray_T 591]

That's where he's ranked according to F Index. Their reasoning is that he's a lock for a big rushing workload behind an excellent OL, and he's a very good receiver out of the backfield who should add 40 receptions.

 

It seems like any RB assured of 250 or more rushes and 30-40 receptions should put up 1,200 total yards minimum. But the Browns passing attack is so bad that Trent will face a ton of 8-man fronts.

 

Then again, that didn't stop Hillis from producing a few years ago and the OL really is very good.

 

Thoughts? Is he worth a mid-1st gamble over guys like CJ2K, MJD, Matthews, etc.?

I'm not sure I would rank him that high. It often takes a bit longer for rookies to pickup the Nuances of playing NFL ball. Specifically, the blocking side of things.

 

It's possible he could come in and be top 6 or 7, but I think it's more likely he ranks 10-12 among RB's at the end of the year.

 

the only time I'd select him that early is if you are in a keeper league.

 

In a pure redraft league, he should be going at the end of round 1 or early in round 2. (I'd lean towards early in round 2)

 

I do agree, he is behind a really good O'Line and that makes a lot of the difference. This is why I would select him this high instead of the 3rd or 4th round. (if he was on a team with a crappy O-line I wouldnt select him in the 2nd round at all for a redraft league)

[DanXIII 8]

I'm getting a kick out of the folks pumping up Trent Richardson by down playing the other RB's because they had injuries or a down year or whathaveyou. The only reason you can do that is because Trent hasn't played one down of football in the NFL. Not one down. Of course he doesn't have the injury history or the sub par year like the others do. It's because he hasn't ever played in the NFL.

 

Richardson can go out there and blow his knee out just as fast as any of them.

 

I agree with you completely wrt knee injuries, those can happen to anyone at any time as we all know.

 

That said, some guys just ALWAYS seem to get hurt, to the point that they aren't merely an injury "risk" they're and injury expectation. Guys like McFadden fall into that category.

 

Obvious fanboi is obvious, but Richardson proved in college that he has more durability than McFadden, more work ethic than CJ2K, and more raw talent than MJD (plus a better situation) and I would gladly take him over any of those three as of right now.

[MDC 5,895]

I agree with you completely wrt knee injuries, those can happen to anyone at any time as we all know.

 

That said, some guys just ALWAYS seem to get hurt, to the point that they aren't merely an injury "risk" they're and injury expectation. Guys like McFadden fall into that category.

 

Obvious fanboi is obvious, but Richardson proved in college that he has more durability than McFadden, more work ethic than CJ2K, and more raw talent than MJD (plus a better situation) and I would gladly take him over any of those three as of right now.

 

I appreciate you weighing in because you're sort of touching on what I'm saying.

 

Right now the obvious Top 3 backs are Foster, McCoy, and Rice, in whatever order. They are the top 3 overall picks on my board at any position right now.

 

Rodgers and Brady are the QBs who barring injury are assured to outscore most of their competition to the point that they're both worth top half of 1st round picks IMO. I'd take Brees at the end of Round 1 or early Round 2 but all the problems in New Orleans make me leery of putting him up with the top 2 at his position.

 

Calvin Johnson is the only wideout I'd take in the first, since there's virtually no difference between the next 6-7 on my board. Second and third round picks like Julio Jones or Victor Cruz are IMO just as likely to finish #2 as Jennings, Fitzgerald, etc. which minimizes the benefit of taking anyone else high.

 

I won't touch a TE that early.

 

So now we have 6 players who are definitely better than Trent Richardson. Who goes at #7? I see MJD, CJ2K and Mathews most often taken in this spot. Are any of these three really surer bets than Trent this year? Even people who say I'm nuts to consider him this high concede that he's a later first rounder at worst. Is it really a major reach to take the 10-12 type player on the board at 7-8 if he appears to have high upside and no more risk than anyone else?

 

Far as McFadden goes ... I have him ranked below every RB I mentioned and a few I didn't. The guy gets hurt constantly and I'm not banking my early round picks on a player who's virtually certain to miss significant time. No thanks. At that point I just wait until later rounds and target guys like Bradshaw or Gore. They're injury risks too but they won't cost a king's ransom.

[giraldi02 470]

I'm getting a kick out of the folks pumping up Trent Richardson by down playing the other RB's because they had injuries or a down year or whathaveyou. The only reason you can do that is because Trent hasn't played one down of football in the NFL. Not one down. Of course he doesn't have the injury history or the sub par year like the others do. It's because he hasn't ever played in the NFL.

 

Richardson can go out there and blow his knee out just as fast as any of them.

 

He's already having knee soreness and coincidentally its his surgically repaired knee. Red flag number 1 is half mast already.