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vegassandwich227

auction results, no stud strategy

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my 3rd year in this 12man auction league. last 2 years, guys really paid up over "fair" for players drafted in the 1st 2 rounds of snake drafts. i decided that if that happened, i'd let it happen and stock up on rd3-6 guys.

 

12teams, standard scoring, non-ppr, start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, WR/TE, K, DST...total budget $250 (roster size 17)

 

Here's my team. This is not a rate my team thread...just throwing it out there for anyone who wants to do the same strategy...you can get something like this:

 

QB: Eli (24), Freeman (2)

RB: S Jax (39), Fred Jax (32), Greene (19), DeAng W (8), Spiller (5)

WR: J Nelson (32), D Jax (20), Wayne (18), Stevie J (18), L Moore (4), N Wash (2)

TE: Gates (20), Olsen (5)

D: Sea (1)

K: Bryant (1)

 

So, I have no clear studs, but I have 9 guys who went in the top 6 rds of my snake draft. My depth is pretty sick. My picks of Eli and Gates were really good value compared to tier1 players at that position, imo.

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Been thinking about my strategy, and I tend to like to equate auction results to snake results to get comparative "success" analysis...for how my stuff turned out, it's kind of as if I had the number 1 pick in a snake and traded with a guy with like the #6 pick for his 3rd, 6th, and 7th rounders...or, in player terms, i traded Foster for Fred Jax, D Jax, and Stevie J. Is that good? It all depends I guess on whether you're someone who does or doesn't prefer a stacked bench. After my year last year, where I had ten (yes, ten...no exaggerating) injuries in a two week span, I opted for a lot of depth

 

Gotta say though that auction drafts are BY FAR the superior way to draft, cause it puts all owners on equal footing. Snake drafts, though unquestionably more popular, give much too much weight to the owners first the first 1-3 picks, especially this year.

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I think what i did in my dynasty startup can be compared to your team to see how it could turn out. I had the first pick and traded back to the sixth pick. 12 team Qb rb rb wr wr wr rb/wr/te te k d. Scoring is a bit complicated so i will condense it. 4 pt pass td 6 pt all other td. Ppr. For wr every yard receiving is .1 pt every rush yard is .15 point. Rb is .1 pt for every yard. Te is .15 point for every receiving yard .2 points for rush yard. Made a few trades.

 

Brees bradford

Turner greene spiller vereen keiland williams blount ivory

Fitzgetald nelson garcon malcom floyd alshon salas

Graham gates ladarius green

Stl kicker

Cin

 

I do not think trading the first pick is the same as having fjax djax and stevie, not even close. I would have at least gotten one stud to anchor your team. I think its solid with decent depth but not a power house. Depth is nice but no one really knows how their depth will pan out. I have thought before that my depth was killer to only have every bench guy barely worth a roster spot.

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I do not think trading the first pick is the same as having fjax djax and stevie, not even close. I would have at least gotten one stud to anchor your team. I think its solid with decent depth but not a power house. Depth is nice but no one really knows how their depth will pan out. I have thought before that my depth was killer to only have every bench guy barely worth a roster spot.

to clarify, i didn't draft foster and then trade him for those 3 guys. actually, to use actual auction $ from the draft:

Foster(81) = Fred Jax(32) + D Jax(20) + Stevie J(18) + DeAngelo (8) + N Wash (2).

so, i actually got more value than previously suggested for not paying up for a top rb...

again, i'm not saying it's the "right" move...just showing anyone who cares what would happen in an auction draft if you passed on the top20 overall players and loaded up on tier2 guys.

frankly, this year, i was interested in the top3 rb's but when they went a little higher than i had them valued, i was more than ok passing on the next crop of rb's because they all have q's (talking cj2k, dmc, murray, mathews, adp, charles, mjd, richardson, lynch).

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to clarify, i didn't draft foster and then trade him for those 3 guys. actually, to use actual auction $ from the draft:

Foster(81) = Fred Jax(32) + D Jax(20) + Stevie J(18) + DeAngelo (8) + N Wash (2).

so, i actually got more value than previously suggested for not paying up for a top rb...

again, i'm not saying it's the "right" move...just showing anyone who cares what would happen in an auction draft if you passed on the top20 overall players and loaded up on tier2 guys.

frankly, this year, i was interested in the top3 rb's but when they went a little higher than i had them valued, i was more than ok passing on the next crop of rb's because they all have q's (talking cj2k, dmc, murray, mathews, adp, charles, mjd, richardson, lynch).

I know what you meant. Whether literally or figuratively I do not like the move. I think you could have pulled it off had you selected different players, Harvin, T. Smith, Colston.

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I know what you meant. Whether literally or figuratively I do not like the move. I think you could have pulled it off had you selected different players, Harvin, T. Smith, Colston.

that's funny...in my snake draft, i have colston and harvin. colston went pretty high too (34)...harvin was relatively good value at 25, except he got nominated for auction pretty late in the draft and i already had my top 4 wr's by then...which is all part of the fun and difficulty of an auction...if a guy you want gets nominated late, you can leave yourself an empty roster spot and wait on him, but if someone else wants him you'll find yourself in a bidding war...auction drafts are much more subject to after the fact secondguessing (in my opinion) than snakes, because after the draft it's easy to say "i woulda gotten this guy at that price" but it doesn't work like that during the draft (and you'd never be able to get a guy for what he went for...you'd have to pay at least $1 more than he went to get him, or more if the other owner is willing to pay even more).

torrey smith also went later, went for 23...but i have him ranked the same as d jax, so it's kind of a push for me there.

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I kind of thought like this but I went for the 'just under elite' strategy. Like I'm gonna take Matt Ryan, Darren McFadden and Julio Jones b/c they won't run me quite as much as Rodgers, Rice and Calvin.

 

I don't mind this team at all but I think coming out of it with another stud at the sacrifice of depth could have paid off.

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It's an interesting strategy but I think flawed. Value drafting is almost impossible to do in auction drafts for one simple reason, what is fair market price? To use silly freshman year economics its all supply and demand, the fair price is whatever someone is willing to pay. Now you have 12 people with different value setups, using fake money (and hence divorced from financial responsibility) and reading most likely the same FF sources as you, your sleepers are going to be borderline tier 2 cost players and not a deal. Forget about it if more than 2 teams are on autobid either, the software will automatically jump the bid to the websites average auction value anyways screwing everything up. The only value you will likely find are the obvious worries everyone is terrified of MJD, Britt, Vick and this is a week ago before they where cleared to play.

 

Also if you decide to wait until late in the draft so you have much more money than everyone else you need to take into account the number of teams in the league. If you have say 200 bucks left and the other 11 teams have 35 dollars you still dont have more money than them collectively. You have to exceed the maximum bid of the other teams which is probably something in the $25-30 dollar range depending on how many more positions they have to spend. They will bid you up since they still likely have roster positions to fill and the number of remaining starting RB, #1WR and QB are extremely limited. Your going to end up spending $31 bucks on Matt Ryan, Stevie Johnson, Benjarvus Green Ellis and Reggie Bush and that right there is 124 bucks and the core of your "value" team.

 

You can find value picks in a auction draft but only at the very end of the draft when everyone has exhausted their money and is down to $1/2 bids. If you have saved like $30 bucks you can swoop in and outbid everyone for the prime deep sleeper players at like $3 bucks a pop. Guys like Ryan Williams, Jonathon Dwyer, Randall Cobb. Another way to get some value is to throw out a mid tier RB/WR in the first round, someone like Hillis. You have a shot to get them for around average auction price which is likely cheaper than in round 5 when everyone realizes the good RB's are taken and they need someone and will bid up the mid tier RB's (but its no guarantee).

 

Value drafting really suffers in auction formats and is counter productive in my experience, the whole point of doing an auction is so you can go get they guys you want on your team. You will be a lot happier with "your picks" than a mediocre team of "value".

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It's an interesting strategy but I think flawed. Value drafting is almost impossible to do in auction drafts for one simple reason, what is fair market price? To use silly freshman year economics its all supply and demand, the fair price is whatever someone is willing to pay.

 

I disagree with this. If you are talking real world, then that's kind of true...like at a Sotheby's auction, the price of a Fabergee egg is simply what people want to pay...or the same is true for a car's value or a carton of milk or whatever...and that's true for those products in reality for a number of reasons, but primarily because (1)people are not required to buy those things (there are always alternative options) and (2)a product's value is totally subjective to the buyer's definition of satisfaction. My points (1) and (2) ARE NOT TRUE in fantasy football. You MUST have a set number of players. You MUST start a set number of players. You MUST spend all your money....and, also of huge importance, EVERYONE has equal wealth...None of these are true for the real world, so you can't really use the analogy to "silly freshman year economics."

 

Also, point #2 is the real issue. In reality, everyone has different definitions of satisfaction, but in fantasy football, there is only one dominant variable that matters, and that's Expected Points (which, if done right, should incorporate a player's injury risk, breakout/bust likelihood, volatility). Auction values are not totally arbitrary; they can ABSOLUTELY be calculated based on Expected Points...in fact, that's how I generated mine and that's how many do...

 

To me, the real question is: how do you value your starter's expected points vs your bench player's expected points, and that was the real point of my starting this post...

 

For what it's worth, I spent a little time earlier looking at footballguys.com Draft Pick Trade Analyzer, and I plugged in all my picks (using average adp). The results from that thing says my top12 picks are 10% more valuable than the top 12 picks for someone who had the #1pick in a snake draft and around 18% more valuable than someone who had the #12pick (yes, it suggests the #1pick is that much more valuable than the #12pick)...now granted, that's just one tool, and it's "pick value calc" is arbitrary (actually not sure how they got per-pick value), but it's something.

 

Does my really strong bench give enough compensation for what appears to be a little weaker than average starting lineup (which, I must add, is up for debate...i drafted a QB who threw for 5000yds, a rb in S Jax who is top14 every year (#11,#14,#10,#14,#14 the last 5 yrs), another rb in Fred Jax who was a top RB last year til his injury, a WR in J Nelson who finished #2 among WRs last year, and a TE in Gates who's healthy and unbelieavably undervalued by many this year)?

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This is a somewhat abstract arguement to begin with and there is no correct anwser but I appreciate the time you took in crafting your response. I am sick to death of one sentence responses followed by .....becuz u suk lolz.

 

Yes I agree with you everyones player rankings are based on expected points whether that is extremely mathematical and rigorous like you do it or more hunch based like I expect the majority of casual FF do it. Either way you are proving my point not everyone is going to have the same "expected point" or "value" on each player these are really the same thing in the terms of this discussion.

 

So how are you employing a value based strategy with no rigid framework like a snake draft to encapsulate it? In a snake draft when a positional run occurs there is nothing you can do to stop it, not so in an auction. Also if a positional run occurs there is likely value at another position say the positional run is RB/QB and the TE/WR has value, you can simply take the value as it occurs. In a snake draft you get 1 maybe 2 picks and then you twiddle your thumbs but in an auction draft one team could potentially land 12 picks in a row (unlikely but possible).

 

The free form nature of the auction is the problem with the idea of extracting value, by the time you get to the 20th ranked RB there will be 3-4 teams with no RB's or only one RB's and they will panic and overpay for these positions. In effect negating your value. Your neglecting the emotional impact of an auction and the way in which your opponents will respond to positional runs. Again I am not denying you can find value in an auction draft just that is in a different location, harder to extract and the method of getting it than deliberately targeting 4th-6th round snake draft type AD players. In my experience this low tier II and tier III players are actually usually overpriced as many teams panic and realize they have a gaping hole in there roster at the third WR, second RB or what ever position the case maybe.

 

In fact Jordy Nelson, Fred Jackson and Sjax are all lower ranked because of noticeable warts and potential problems facing them. Again you may have already won this discussion because you are right and these players will way outperform more expensive players. I was commenting on the difficulty of truly finding value in auction drafts and no offense but I think your team largely proves the point. You paid a lot for several mid tier II or tier III type players.

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i understand the dilemma of quantifying value in an auction...and that's what i think is so interesting...the difference btwn snake and auction is like the difference btwn a 2d and 3d universe. snake drafting is pretty simple...you have a small sample of how to make our first 3 picks, and the rest of the draft kinda falls into place from there...auction drafts take much more thought (if you want to think about it too much, which i do...which by the way ensures i have much less fun than dummies who just say, "i think calvin johnson is awesome...i'm gonna go get him.")

 

you mention in a snake draft having to watch for positional runs...in an auction, it's almost like you have to watch for both positional runs AND tier runs...like, people saying they really want a top flight player, be it QB or RB, so they push the market up...

 

i understand that some may look at the roster i chose and think it is simply mediocre...frankly, i'm not arguing (but i would argue if someone suggested it's helpless...first off, i do have starter firepower...and second, my bench gives me terrific trade opportunities...you should see some of the bench thinness going on). but i reject on principle that simply because there are no "studs" that it was a "bad" draft...first off, only time will tell if the specific players i chose will be successful...second, i took d jax and stevie j instead of other guys who are ranked around them (lloyd, a brown, maclin, bowe...although all those guys went 4-7 pts richer). what if the guys i chose do well and the others don't (or vice versa)...does that make the overall strategy good or bad?

 

the real point i guess is: what do you do when the "studs" start going significantly richer than how you value them? this is what has happened every year for this league (my 3rd year). each of the last two years i decided to pay up on 2 guys. this year, i decided to stick to my guns and trust my pricing.

 

frankly, i'm of the opinion that just about all of this stuff is pretty random, and the biggest real upside to drafting "surer" starters is that i have less decisions to make on gameday...

 

anyway, i appreciate the commentary (that was the actual intention of the topic...not, "hey, i have this great strategy...check out my awesome team!")

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i understand the dilemma of quantifying value in an auction...and that's what i think is so interesting...the difference btwn snake and auction is like the difference btwn a 2d and 3d universe. snake drafting is pretty simple...you have a small sample of how to make our first 3 picks, and the rest of the draft kinda falls into place from there...auction drafts take much more thought (if you want to think about it too much, which i do...which by the way ensures i have much less fun than dummies who just say, "i think calvin johnson is awesome...i'm gonna go get him.")

 

you mention in a snake draft having to watch for positional runs...in an auction, it's almost like you have to watch for both positional runs AND tier runs...like, people saying they really want a top flight player, be it QB or RB, so they push the market up...

 

i understand that some may look at the roster i chose and think it is simply mediocre...frankly, i'm not arguing (but i would argue if someone suggested it's helpless...first off, i do have starter firepower...and second, my bench gives me terrific trade opportunities...you should see some of the bench thinness going on). but i reject on principle that simply because there are no "studs" that it was a "bad" draft...first off, only time will tell if the specific players i chose will be successful...second, i took d jax and stevie j instead of other guys who are ranked around them (lloyd, a brown, maclin, bowe...although all those guys went 4-7 pts richer). what if the guys i chose do well and the others don't (or vice versa)...does that make the overall strategy good or bad?

 

the real point i guess is: what do you do when the "studs" start going significantly richer than how you value them? this is what has happened every year for this league (my 3rd year). each of the last two years i decided to pay up on 2 guys. this year, i decided to stick to my guns and trust my pricing.

 

frankly, i'm of the opinion that just about all of this stuff is pretty random, and the biggest real upside to drafting "surer" starters is that i have less decisions to make on gameday...

 

anyway, i appreciate the commentary (that was the actual intention of the topic...not, "hey, i have this great strategy...check out my awesome team!")

Speaking of auction draft, what does a vegas sandwich taste like?

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Speaking of auction draft, what does a vegas sandwich taste like?

about 4 years ago, we had a new employee in our office (in vegas). we were getting subway for lunch, so i asked him what he wanted. he said "a sandwich." he wasn't trying to be funny. that's what he wanted. i asked him what kind of sandwich, he said "just a sandwich." i asked if turkey was fine, he said yes. i asked him if he wanted anything on it, he said dressing...so, it's been a running joke in the office since then...

and as far as the "227," it's just a shout-out to the sensational tv show 227, starring the irrepressible Jackee Harry...

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The free form nature of the auction is the problem with the idea of extracting value, by the time you get to the 20th ranked RB there will be 3-4 teams with no RB's or only one RB's and they will panic and overpay for these positions. In effect negating your value. Your neglecting the emotional impact of an auction and the way in which your opponents will respond to positional runs. Again I am not denying you can find value in an auction draft just that is in a different location, harder to extract and the method of getting it than deliberately targeting 4th-6th round snake draft type AD players. In my experience this low tier II and tier III players are actually usually overpriced as many teams panic and realize they have a gaping hole in there roster at the third WR, second RB or what ever position the case maybe.

 

 

I disagree about finding value in an auction vs. snake. The argument about getting to the 20th ranked RB and overpaying means that whoever got the 18th and 19th RBs got great value. The bottom line is that value can be had in both, however with an auction, there are so many more variables that come into play.

 

To answer the OP, I agree with Mueller - in hindsight, I would have sacrified some depth for a stud somewhere - it's tough to win without one.

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Speaking of auction draft, what does a vegas sandwich taste like?

 

Canter's deli in the Treasure Island is awesome and open 24/7, I highly recommend it for some late night munching after a late night poker tournament. :thumbsup: See by calling it a poker tournament I don't get in trouble for the true debauchery that is really happening...errr never mind.

 

Sorry if it came across like I was bashing your team, its not bad and like you said in a 12 teamer with thin benches it might turn into a juggernaught(ack can't spell).

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If you pick the right spots and players to bid on, you can win the best players. I bid early for most of my big names (DMC was first top RB off the board, the real big 3 went for around 60 and Calvin was the first WR overall off the board, Hernandez was first player overall off the board and Gates went for 28, Gronk and Grahm 40) (Start QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-TE-RB/WR/TE and .25 PPR)

 

QB: Cutler (7) Flacco (1)

RB: DMC (40) D Martin (18) (Draft was three weeks ago) Vereen (3) R Rrown (1) Turbin (1) Ballard (1)

WR: Calvin (48) Cruz (34) Percy (26)

TE: Hernandez (17) Kendricks (1)

K: Bryan (1)

K: KC (1)

 

In hindsight I should not have bid so high on Cruz considering Julio went for 34 and Fitz for 35 or something as the next highest WRs. Great deals on DMC and Martin and Percy, decent deal on Calvin and Cutler. Am worried about Cutler and Flacco, but expect one of my four sleeper RBs to turn into a serviceable player by default.

 

So, here is a differnt strategy. Buy studs and take sleepers for back ups. If you get some luck, you will win your league.

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I ended up with 8 copies of Jesus Christ in my auction. My kicker is Kate upton

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my 3rd year in this 12man auction league. last 2 years, guys really paid up over "fair" for players drafted in the 1st 2 rounds of snake drafts. i decided that if that happened, i'd let it happen and stock up on rd3-6 guys.

 

12teams, standard scoring, non-ppr, start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, WR/TE, K, DST...total budget $250 (roster size 17)

 

Here's my team. This is not a rate my team thread...just throwing it out there for anyone who wants to do the same strategy...you can get something like this:

 

QB: Eli (24), Freeman (2)

RB: S Jax (39), Fred Jax (32), Greene (19), DeAng W (8), Spiller (5)

WR: J Nelson (32), D Jax (20), Wayne (18), Stevie J (18), L Moore (4), N Wash (2)

TE: Gates (20), Olsen (5)

D: Sea (1)

K: Bryant (1)

 

So, I have no clear studs, but I have 9 guys who went in the top 6 rds of my snake draft. My depth is pretty sick. My picks of Eli and Gates were really good value compared to tier1 players at that position, imo.

 

I dont think the team is that bad - in fact it should compete. The only one I dont like is D Jax. Id have put his $ with Moore's and chased after Harvin/Maclin/Decker.

 

This is a 3rd (or so) valid strat in auctions. Studs n duds usually dominates.

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What do you guys think of this auction team?

Starters:

Vick

CJ2K

McFadden

Dem. Thomas

R. Wayne

Fred Davis

S. Graham

Cards D

Flex - K. Smith vs. Rams, Hillis vs. ATL, Malcolm Floyd @ OAK

 

Bench:

J. Cutler

K. Smith

Hillis

Turbin

V. Ballard

K. Britt

Malcolm Floyd

K. Rudolph

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What do you guys think of this auction team?

Starters:

Vick

CJ2K

McFadden

Dem. Thomas

R. Wayne

Fred Davis

S. Graham

Cards D

Flex - K. Smith vs. Rams, Hillis vs. ATL, Malcolm Floyd @ OAK

 

Bench:

J. Cutler

K. Smith

Hillis

Turbin

V. Ballard

K. Britt

Malcolm Floyd

K. Rudolph

For a 20 team league its not bad.

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Noob - I tend to agree with your post ... We have a keeper league (max 6 spots with $3 increase per player per year - topper rights given to owner) with $136 cap -

 

I had topper rights on R Matthews at $27 and did not protect him - assuming I could get him back cheaper with broken collar bone an history of injury - he was bid up to $38 (highest salary of ANY player on any team - 28% of TOTAL team payroll - 15 roster spots) - I always have mentality of "value" per player and wind up getting descent mid level players at good prices - but the result is a bunch of middle road players -- See below

 

Leage is TD heavy ... Emphasis in scoring

Result: * denotes a "keeper" from previous year

 

Matt Ryan $13*

Big Ben $6

 

Reggie Bush $8*

Rashad Mendenhall $10

Peyton Hillis $9

Kevin Smith $4*

CJ Spiller $6

Robert Turbin $1

Isiah Pead $4

 

Mike Wallace $10*

Brandon Marshall $19*

Jeremy Maclin $14*

Marques Colston $17

Malcolm Floyd $5

 

Matt Bryant $1

 

** needless to say I feel I have good depth and possibilities for the "future" but feel like my team looks like this every year. Descent - but not champion unless some flukes happen. I have tendency to make playoffs every year - am absent of "stud" player to carry through .... I think a lot to be said where you just go after what you want and fill in with $1-$2 players ... Think I may go that way next year ...

 

RB

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20 team, did you mean 10 or 12? :unsure:

 

no

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i get this strategy but not really a fan of the way you executed it and the guys you got.

 

i would almost rather go after 3-4 studs and fill the rest of my team in via waivers to replace the trash.

 

 

in a baseball auction this year i followed something similar to what you did, passing on the cabreras, brauns, pujols, and big time pitchers.... ao once all the "studs", "first rounders" big time names were gone and a lot of teams had blown a nice chunk of $, I filled up on guys like Andrew McCutchen, Ryan zimmerman, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt cain, gio gonzalez, mike trout, grienke, hanley ramirez, yadier molina, etc etc. Team sits in 2nd place as of now.

 

So it can work, but i feel generally uninspired by your lineup. And in football I feel as though the stud route is the way to go.

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20 team, did you mean 10 or 12? :unsure:

No. The only guy I like on your team is Mcfadden. I don't like Vick much. I mean if he plays every snap then maybe but we know that isn't likely, and the same goes for McFadden. I do not like Chris Johnson at all this year. Demaryius Thomas is your WR1? Reggie Wayne is your WR2? Then you have a bad TE, a bad D, and you kicker is a focking ginger.

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To revisit this, again, this was the auction team I drafted this year, where I saw all studs go higher than I had them valued so I loaded up on what I thought were very good value guys. My team again is:

 

QB: Eli (24), Freeman (2)

RB: S Jax (39), Fred Jax (32), Greene (19), DeAng W (8), Spiller (5)

WR: J Nelson (32), D Jax (20), Wayne (18), Stevie J (18), L Moore (4), N Wash (2)

TE: Gates (20), Olsen (5)

D: Sea (1)

K: Bryant (1)

 

The reason why I initially posted this topic wasn't for a "rate my team" thread, but more to show what you could get if you follow such a strategy. Most people didn't like it, because of lack of stud-power.

 

The value to a strategy like this is: (1) protection against injuries and (2) you have more guys who have a chance of paying off, as opposed to a "draft a few studs" strategy where you're screwed if your big guys suck or get hurt.

 

So, after 2 weeks, despite injuries to S Jax, Fred Jax, Greene, Gates, and N Wash (5 in two weeks...that's impressive), my team is looking ok...I'm definitely not upset that I didn't pay up for guys like Forte, DMC, CJ, MJD, Murray, Mathews, Charles, Bradshaw...

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