Alf Morris Rest of Season Outlook

[Matt Mueller 146]

Dave Richard of CBS did a pretty good breakdown of Morris this week.

 

'After five weeks and four favorable matchups, the value on Redskins' rookie running back Alfred Morris is sky high. And when it comes to trades in Fantasy, timing is everything.

 

There's no reason to doubt that Morris could finish the season with over 1,000 rush yards and nine touchdowns, but if that's the case then he's almost halfway there already with 491 yards and four scores through five games. It would be stunning if he kept up that pace for the next 11 games, especially considering who he'll play.

 

Morris is looking down the barrel at a schedule that still has matchups against the Steelers and Ravens and two each against the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants. And before he can get to any of those games, he takes on the Vikings this week. In fact, only three of his final 11 games come against defenses in the bottom half of the league in run defense. Compare that to the Redskins' first five opponents -- four are currently in that bottom half of run defenses and the fifth is the Bucs, who are technically a Top 5 run D but are the only team among the Top 16 that's allowed four rushing touchdowns (in only four games).

 

Reality is such that defensive coaches are starting to get a beat on Morris, and that could make it harder for him to deliver big rushing numbers from week to week, especially once the competition gets tougher. Those same coaches are also finding ways to drop the hammer on Robert Griffin III, Morris' quarterback. It's no secret that part of Morris' success is thanks to the passing and running threat RG3 provides. Griffin's abilities earn him the eyeballs of most defenders while Morris can take advantage of light coverage. Though it wasn't much of a glimpse, we saw what life would be like without Griffin on the field for Morris this past week when he ran for 6 yards on three handoffs from Kirk Cousins. Griffin is expected to be fine after a concussion knocked him out of Week 5, but if he were to miss any time, the focus of the Redskins' opponents would shift from quarterback to running back.'

 

With the upcoming schedule getting tougher, starting this week vs Minn, and results on RG3 not back yet are any Morris owners looking to sell high?

 

What's your take on Morris rest of the season?

[BigMek 0]

I just traded him for Jordy Nelson..

[DankNuggs 305]

I just traded him for Jordy Nelson..

Poor move

[krusin 0]

Packers homer here - I would not have traded him for Jordy Nelson, I think he has better value than Jordy. Look at Jordy's stat line so far, 23rec, 289yds, 1 TD. Defenses are keying in on Jordy more than ever.

I do not completely agree with Richard's breakdown of Morris. If RG3 misses time, it could actually benefit Morris slightly because he will get more goal line touches where in the past RG3 was the preferred option to run it in.

I agree that his schedule is tough, but their just are not many true work horse 3-down backs out there anymore. I wish Morris was relied on more for passing, but last week he had 1 catch for 20 yards, something I would like to see more of...

Tampa and Atlanta were considered tough run defenses, and he was 21-113-1 vs Tampa, and 18-115-0 vs. Atlanta. The Minnesota game will give us a clue on what to expect against even tougher defenses.

Unless I could trade him for a better WR than Jordy, I would hold. ( I consider Jordy a high Tier 3 this year - and I would only trade Morris for a high Tier 2 WR - my 2 cents)

[bigmark3333 11]

Packers homer here - I would not have traded him for Jordy Nelson, I think he has better value than Jordy. Look at Jordy's stat line so far, 23rec, 289yds, 1 TD. Defenses are keying in on Jordy more than ever.

I do not completely agree with Richard's breakdown of Morris. If RG3 misses time, it could actually benefit Morris slightly because he will get more goal line touches where in the past RG3 was the preferred option to run it in.

I agree that his schedule is tough, but their just are not many true work horse 3-down backs out there anymore. I wish Morris was relied on more for passing, but last week he had 1 catch for 20 yards, something I would like to see more of...

Tampa and Atlanta were considered tough run defenses, and he was 21-113-1 vs Tampa, and 18-115-0 vs. Atlanta. The Minnesota game will give us a clue on what to expect against even tougher defenses.

Unless I could trade him for a better WR than Jordy, I would hold. ( I consider Jordy a high Tier 3 this year - and I would only trade Morris for a high Tier 2 WR - my 2 cents)

 

In my league - which is 0.5 ppr, so it hurts Alfred - he is the #6 ranked RB currently. You can tell me all you want about weak/strong run defenses, Shenanigans, etc. but the guy is putting up numbers. Early on people were saying he wasn't explosive, but he's gone out and averaged 5.4 and 6.4 ypc over his past two games, with 4.9 ypc this season. Basically what I'm saying is that people won't give this guy his due, when all he's doing is producing. My only knock on him is that he isn't catching the ball, which if they fall behind may hurt him quite a bit. Then again, this wasn't the case last week against an explosive Atlanta team, but that would be my only gripe.

 

Since I'm very deep at RB, I have shopped him quite a bit for a wr (packaging him with a #3 wr for a low #1/ high#2 wr), but nobody seems to value him that highly. So to answer your question, unless somebody is willing to give me a high 2/low 1 wr in return for what is currently a #1 rb, I think he's worth holding. It really depends what kind of value you can get in return, which for me hasn't been worth it yet.

[giraldi02 470]

I'm holding right now, but I'm worried about the health of RGIII. If he's out of the lineup, a big dynamic from that offense is gone.

 

I think I'm going to wait and see what happens this week. If RGIII is limited or doesn't play, I want to see what Morris can do (along with Shanahan) in an offense that is completely different than the beginning of the season. If Morris continues to excel, I'm keeping him and not looking back. If he has a sub-par game though, I think I'm going to shop him and test the market.

[Eddie Kennison 12]

Stud. I'll keep playing him every week.

 

Young Alfred continues to get the job done.

[crackills 19]

i say hold or even buy..

The guy has done nothing but performed through the first 5 wks.

He plays for Shanny in a zone blocking scheme. Everyone know that RBs will produce in shanny scheme and he finally founds one he loves.

He'll produce even is RG3 gets hurt, as long as grossman starts.

 

he still doesn't have the name recognition of other rbs but is ranked in top 6 of most leagues so there is a chance you could get good value in trading for him.

[ian Potter 9]

Traded T Smith for him. I would assume his value would be greater if RG3 were to be out. Figure they'll lean heavily on him if he misses time.

[the spanker 28]

Sell for the right price. His upcoming schedule, RG3 or not, looks wicked.

 

The Run D's he's played against so far have been average at best.

[GreenTD 56]

Not sure why they say his schedule is so tough? The Ravens got gashed by TRich a week ago & got torched by Charles this past weekend. The Steelers are long in the tooth & got buried by DMC in week 3. Sometimes it seems these writers are placing too much emphasis on past performance than what's happening now.

 

I'd hold on a workhorse back like Morris.

[the spanker 28]

Not sure why they say his schedule is so tough? The Ravens got gashed by TRich a week ago & got torched by Charles this past weekend. The Steelers are long in the tooth & got buried by DMC in week 3. Sometimes it seems these writers are placing too much emphasis on past performance than what's happening now.

 

I'd hold on a workhorse back like Morris.

 

Discounting those teams you mentioned, he's still got to play the G-men twice, Cowboys twice, Philly twice, and Vikings next week.

 

I didn't say give him away, but down the stretch he's got a bunch of good D's headed his way just about every single week.

 

And his value is pretty much based on him scoring a TD every week. If he doesn't get that, he loses a lot of value as he's used very little in the passing game.

[TheNAL24 1]

I was offered Morris and Maclin for Julio in my ppr league. I am short on RB but idk if Maclin will produce... I dont think I am going to do it.

[vegassandwich227 0]

Discounting those teams you mentioned, he's still got to play the G-men twice, Cowboys twice, Philly twice, and Vikings next week.

 

I didn't say give him away, but down the stretch he's got a bunch of good D's headed his way just about every single week.

 

And his value is pretty much based on him scoring a TD every week. If he doesn't get that, he loses a lot of value as he's used very little in the passing game.

current defensive fantasy ranks against RBs thru week 5 for Morris' remaining schedule (non-ppr): Minn 3, Philly 10, Pittsburgh12, Dallas 14, NYG 16, Baltimore 20, Cleveland 21, Carolina 26. Aside from Minnesota, the teams he plays sound much tougher than they've actually been. Philly just gave up 100yds to Pitt, who has a terrible run game. Giants got abused by Richardson and were only team to give up decent yards to Murray. Baltimore apparently really misses Suggs, cause they are giving up rb pts every week.

 

The way to win at FF is to find studs. That's what Morris has been. Not sure what else you're looking for

[the spanker 28]

current defensive fantasy ranks against RBs thru week 5 for Morris' remaining schedule (non-ppr): Minn 3, Philly 10, Pittsburgh12, Dallas 14, NYG 16, Baltimore 20, Cleveland 21, Carolina 26. Aside from Minnesota, the teams he plays sound much tougher than they've actually been. Philly just gave up 100yds to Pitt, who has a terrible run game. Giants got abused by Richardson and were only team to give up decent yards to Murray. Baltimore apparently really misses Suggs, cause they are giving up rb pts every week.

 

The way to win at FF is to find studs. That's what Morris has been. Not sure what else you're looking for

 

I wouldn't put Morris in the same pedigree as Richardson but that's just me. You mention non-ppr so his value is certainly higher in that format and more of a must hold.

[edjr 5,567]

I have 3 fantasy teams and he is on everyone of my fantasy teams, as Victor Cruz was last season and I kept him on all teams.

 

I may trade Alf from one of my teams, I can't decide who to try and get though

[Jetdoc 20]

Definitely a hold at this point. Despite the tougher schedule, I see RGIII's injury as a good thing for Morris...it should decrease the number of runs that RGIII attempts and those naturally will go to the RB.

 

I think Morris's YPC may go down, but the increased touches should offset that.

[vegassandwich227 0]

Definitely a hold at this point. Despite the tougher schedule, I see RGIII's injury as a good thing for Morris...it should decrease the number of runs that RGIII attempts and those naturally will go to the RB.

 

I think Morris's YPC may go down, but the increased touches should offset that.

I'm curious how many more carries people think Morris will be getting...he's already averaging 20 carries per game, and that's gotta be partially due to RG3's success, as he has been able to sustain drives...personally, i think any injury to RG3 would be bad for Morris

[Jetdoc 20]

An injury to RGIII would be devastating to Morris. What I'm predicting, however, is that you'll see Shanahan be a little more conservative with RGIII running the ball after this weekend's incident, which will mean a healthy RGIII and another 4-5 touches/game for Morris going forward.

[touchdowntwitaker 2]

Proof is in the pudding.. Who has come out of the gates like this and then just laid down?

 

I can't think of one hard schedule or not. In fact, what rb has an easy schedule ever the entire year. The good ones are the good ones and this kid is playing for a bright future. Don't take Willy Nelson for granted - "Know when to hold 'em"

[Matt Mueller 146]

Just checking in with some offers I've received for Morris to help other gauge possible trades.

 

Last week it was Doug Martin straight up. .5 PPR

 

This week it was Sjax/Lloyd for Morris/D. Moore-Standard

 

I'm holding for now.

 

 

You guys getting or sending any offers?

[Tricky Williams 0]

Just got offered MJD for him straight up in a 14 team 1/2 point PPR. I know the Jags are brutal but this seems like the ultimate Sell High/Buy low scenario? I am having trouble finding a reason not to do this trade. The MJD owner is even willing to wait till the roster locks on sunday to do the trade so I dont take the MJD bye week hit this weekend. Can anyone give me a reason not to unload him at this high point? I couldnt find an MJD injured thread or post anywhere on the net.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Just got offered MJD for him straight up in a 14 team 1/2 point PPR. I know the Jags are brutal but this seems like the ultimate Sell High/Buy low scenario? I am having trouble finding a reason not to do this trade. The MJD owner is even willing to wait till the roster locks on sunday to do the trade so I dont take the MJD bye week hit this weekend. Can anyone give me a reason not to unload him at this high point? I couldnt find an MJD injured thread or post anywhere on the net.

 

I'd strongly consider that.

 

I just got an offer, and a quick re-neg, for Julio Jones for him straight up...Standard league. Either player would take over a WR/RB flex spot.

 

I'd consider it, but since rbs are tougher to come by, might pass. I'm ok with Harvin, Torrey Smith, Decker and D. Moore.

 

My rbs are Rice, Mathews, Morris, P. Thomas and D Will.

 

Thoughts on Julio straight up?

[THEFORCE 0]

I traded Morris, RGIII, Steve Smith, & Boldin

I got McCoy, Fitzgerald, Miles Austin, Carson Palmer

 

I'm gonna roll the dice with Andrew Luck the rest of the way