2013 ROOKIE SKILL POSITION FANTASY PROSPECTS

[Patmos 2]

RE: Mike Ford, the mystery man. Obviously tested great. Here is a quote I found regarding him:

 

"But Ford never completely grabbed the starting job and held on tightly. He was probably the fastest of the LSU backs last season, but didn't block as well in pass protection, struggled as a receiver and also had fumble problems."

If he is still there at 4.05 I will gladly take a chance on him, but not before...

[Patmos 2]

"I could see Utah State's Kerwynn Williams, a 5' 9" 195 bundle of speed and quicks getting lost in the sea of 3rd tier RBs and make it down to 4.02. i'm a believer in the kid as a guy to take a chance on late in your rookie draft."

Hey Matt, I wouldn't count on Kerwynn Williams making it past 3.05

 

You could beat me to Mike Ford with the 4.02 (I have the 4.05)...

[Hawkfin 32]

I've got three of them at the WR position and one RB:

 

Marquis Wilson, 6' 2 1/2" Washington State - He could perhaps have been a second round guy but he quit the Cougars early in the season and then accused new Coach Mike Leach (who himself got fired from Texas Tech after allegations of player mistreatment). Wilson recanted his allegation. Because of this incident, he's now flying under the radar some and could drop to 4.02 in a rookie draft.

 

Justin Brown, Oklahoma - This 6' 3" 207 transfer from Penn State could make a very nice possession receiver.

 

Uzoma Nwachukwu, Texas A&M - 5'11" 198, is a quick, precise route runner who will catch balls in traffic and an excellent downfield blocker. He'll get drafted and maybe be a pleasant surprise. I'll guarantee that he'll be there at 4.02 and who wouldn't want a player on their team named Uzoma Nwachukwu?

 

I could see Utah State's Kerwynn Williams, a 5' 9" 195 bundle of speed and quicks getting lost in the sea of 3rd tier RBs and make it down to 4.02. i'm a believer in the kid as a guy to take a chance on late in your rookie draft.

 

Hey Mucker, we did our final evaluations on WR's and DT's this weekend. Might want to check my final thoughts on WR's if ur interested. It's in our Seahawk thread though as we always gear it to the Hawks.

 

Bottom line - Patterson is my #1. I like that kid!

I see boom.

 

Enjoy

[madd futher mucker 36]

Hawk, while you were looking at WRs, QBs and TEs, I was putting the finishing touches on weeks of Running Back study, both highlight and game video as well as hours reviewing my notes from Postseason Bowl games, All Star Games and other internet scouting reports (to see what they might have seen that drastically differed from my own observations). Although I would normally make a separate topic post on this, I am presenting these short-form descriptions of strengths and weaknesses here as I plan to submit my complete rankings and commentary to RosterWatch.com in the very near future (after having taken an extended sabbatical there).

 

As every year, I need to disclaim that I expect that these rankings will bear little relation to what round I (or any draft pundits) think these guys will be drafted in. The rankings are subject to radical adjustments post-draft depending on landing situation, and are strictly evaluations for fantaasy dynasty purposes.

 

That said, here goes:

 

Tier 1

1. Eddie Lacy, Alabama 5‘ 11“ 231 - Power. Vision. Burst. Quickness. Lacy has it all. He's in a class by himself as the #1 running back in this draft. You want negatives? Maybe he's just an average blocker for his size. But he'll seldom go down with out a fight and that means gang tackles - gangnam style. He also possess the hands and agility to factor into a passing game.

Since this ranking is no surprise, let's get on to tier 2.

 

Tier 2

2. Jonathan Franklin, UCLA, 5’ 10”, 205# 4.49 - Johnathan Franklin is a proven playmaker, but one who still needs development in the passing game and as a pass blocker. Franklin is a capable inside runner who keeps his legs moving after contact, but he is better served working in space where he can use his initial vision, and can make multiple cut-backs in the open field. He is instinctive in the open field, with a good ability to cut back against the pursuit of downfield defenders. His ability to stay balanced through contact is perhaps his greatest asset. His overall skill-set is solid and versatile. Franklin hasn’t missed a game due to injury in his collegiate career. He has also improved each and every year and is a high character player. He is not ‘elite’, but he has the potential to grow into a three down starting running back in the NFL.

 

3. Zac Stacy, Vanderbilt 5' 8 3/8", 216#, 4.55 - I’ll admit, I’ve probably watched more Zac Stacy video than any other running back. My first impression of Stacy was that he was a poor man’s Doug Martin. The more video I’ve watched, the more ready I am to remove the “poor man’s” label. Built with a strong lower body, he displays unnatural power for his size. He uses his blockers well and has a great ability to make himself skinny through the hole and to adjust his body through traffic. Zac has tremendous toughness.

I seldom cite stats in player evaluations, but Stacy led the SEC (regarded by many as the toughest conference in the country) in 2011 with a 5.94 yards per carry. He picked up 1193 rushing yards on 201 carries while playing without a sub-par supporting cast. Moreover, he came very close to repeating these stats in 2012.

As negatives, his speed and agility are only average so he is a mediocre outside runner. Stacy lacks great balance, and he is frequently tackled by defenders from behind or from the side.

Stacy is flying well under the radar and may be the most underrated prospect of the draft. Some team is going to get one hell of a football player.

 

4. Giovani Bernard, North Carolina 5-8 3/8, 202# 4.53 - Bernard has been tremendously productive as both a runner and a returner. He has played through pain and soreness from a repaired torn ACL.

He shows phenomenal instincts with terrific anticipation. Bernard has impressive vision and he almost always finds the correct lane. His acceleration and speed jumped off the video. He is explosive both laterally and vertically.

Bernard has smooth hands, is a natural receiver out of the backfield, but sometimes will react to footsteps on pass routes over the middle. In pass protection, he gives a strong effort and he does not shy away from contact and his blitz pickup skills are advanced. He definitely looks ready to see the field early in his NFL career in the passing game.

But Bernard is almost purely a finesse back. His game is similar to Ryan Mathews. He prefers to run out of bounds rather than take the hit, even when he could have broken the play back up field. He does not like to get physical. At the end of runs, Bernard shows a tendency to let his legs go dead, allow himself to be tackled, and figuratively speaking, hold up the "surrender" flag.

While Bernard has a ton of talent, he may have difficulty becoming a three-down back unless he develops toughness, both physically and mentally. In addition, he is undersized and already has an injury history including a torn ACL. Durability may be a problem.

 

5. Mike Gillislee, Florida, 5’ 11 1/8” 208#, 4.55 - I’m not usually enamored with running backs of Gillislee’s general build, but Gillislee is the exception. I believe that he can develop to be the lead back in a committee, and is strong both as a lead runner and as a 3rd down back. Gillislee has an extremely well-rounded skill set. He is a very decisive runner and doesn't dance behind the line of scrimmage. Gillislee simply makes one cut and quickly charges ahead. He has excellent ability to dodge defenders and pick up positive yards. With his compact running style, he showcases surprising power and strength for his size. He is highly effective running between the tackles displaying the vision to cut into tiny creases and is able to get through the hole quickly and into the second level at top speed. He does not shy away from contact and is able to run through arm tackles. Gillislee is tough, and has played through painful injuries without losing effectiveness.

While he didn’t catch many passes in college, he has very good hands and the ability to catch passes underneath and in traffic. He will also be a threat after the catch to pick up some long gains with both his speed and his ability to cut back against the grain in the open field. As with most backs coming out of college, his pass blocking is a work in process.

I believe Gillislee has enough size to be an every down back at the next level but because of his build he may be best suited as lead back in a committee in the NFL. He is a high character player.

 

6. Ray Graham, Pittsburgh 5'9 1/8" 199#, 4.8 - I really like Ray Graham, already have him on my Fat Bastards dynasty team and was disappointed when he tore his ACL. However, he’s made a nice comeback and managed to play some quality football toward the end of his senior year (watch his game vs Notre Dame). Graham's impressive vision combined with his agility makes him a big play threat. Graham is a playmaker with impressive lateral agility and an explosive change of direction to cut on a dime and maintain his balance. He’s got a real ability to find cutback lanes and often when there is no hole, he can find a way to pick up 10 yards. He has great ability as a receiver, and has the ability to create separation in open field with cuts and subtle moves to avoid big hits. He shows the ability to pluck the ball away from his frame and has even made some impressive one handed catches in his college career. He is a willing pass blocker who is too often over-powered by pass rushers.

After a disappointing Combine, I’ll be watching his pro-day with interest. But even if he again times out slowly in the 40, I believe he can fully recover his speed by training camp, and represents a tremendous value in your rookie draft because he will go late due to the uncertainty.

 

7. Montee Ball, Wisconsin 5-10 ¼”, 214 4.66 - Ball was utra-productive at Wisconsin with a NCAA record of 83 career TDs, displaying a great ability to fight for the tough yards to get into the end zone. His running style is extremely patient, waiting for the hole to open and then he cuts and gets through it with a terrific burst. He has great balance and seldom gets knocked off his base with one shot. He runs with determination and technique, lowering his pads on contact and running with a forward lean. He’s good at making himself skinny through the hole, occasionally busting out a sweet spin move. His technique needs to be good, because his leg drive isn’t impressive and he seldom powers through good wrap tackles, He is a one speed runner who lacks a second gear to pull away from defenders.

Ball wasn’t often used as a receiver at Wisconsin, but he is capable, and has occasionally lined up at wide receiver and ran routes down-field. He is a willing blocker but shows poor technique, struggling to sustain his blocks after initial contact. As with most rookies, his technique should be corrected with more coaching.

Because he is not a true power back and he lacks speed, his skill set is average for an NFL starting quality RB. His style reminds of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, good starter potential but far from elite.

 

Tier 3

8. Stepfan Taylor, Stanford, 5’ 9 1/8”, 214# 4.76 - Like Montee Ball, Stepfan Taylor lacks an elite top gear, but he does everything else well, if not outstanding. He has powerful legs. As a runner, he commits quickly to the hole and possesses adequate initial burst to get through it before it collapses. He never shies from contact, and keeps his feet churning on impact, keeping his weight forward and therefore is able to grind out the extra half-yard falling down. Like fellow rookie, Montee Ball, he does lack the raw power to pound his way through tackles for many extra yards after contact, and his below average long speed won’t allow him to break too many long runs at the next level. His skill set best suits a one-cut running system, but he has enough shiftiness and wiggle to make defenders miss in space and possesses surprising burst out of a vertical move or stop-start.

He also is a solid pass-catcher. He consistently plucks the ball away from his frame and looks it in before turning upfield. His vision is only average as he doesn't always spot the cutback lane, and will engage defenders head-on rather than see that open lane. He also tends to run narrow in the open field and loses balance when he needs to move laterally with suddenness.

He reminds of a Chester Taylor, in that he is technically sound and well-rounded. He does not possess any one elite physical tool or attribute, but brings toughness and consistent production along with versatility in the passing game both as a receiver and blocker. While not having a terrifically high ceiling, he just may be one of the the safest running back in this class. He never missed a game during his college career.

 

9. Christine Michael, Texas A&M 5' 10", 220# 4.54 - I wouldn’t blame you if you shot for the moon and drafted Christine Michael ahead of similar sized but far more productive backs like Montee Ball and Stepfan Taylor. Michael is probably the most talented RB in this class not named Eddie Lacy. Unfortunately, he also has potentially the greatest bust factor of any RB in the class not named Knile Davis.

Michael is an explosive power back with the ability to also make you miss through the hole. His compact, thickly-built body is especially strong throughout his hips and thighs. He runs with good burst and with a naturally low pad level. He is decisive with his first cut, plant, and drive upfield and he and reacts well to his blocks. He shows good vision for the cutback, and excellent agility and shiftiness for a bigger back. His weapons as a tackle breaker also include a nice spin move and a strong stiff-arm. Michael's speed will catch defenses by surprise. When he gets into the open field, he can take to it the endzone.

Michael comes with injury concerns. He broke his tibula in 2010 ending his season after nine games, and suffered a torn left ACL in November 1011. Most significantly though, Michael comes with a high ‘knucklehead factor” Although Michael has flashed NFL talent throughout his career, his career at Texas A & M has been wildly inconsistent . Poor attitude and effort earned him a spot on the bench for much of his senior season, At the Scouting Combine, in typical Michael fashion, he overslept and missed two meetings with teams.

Despite his high bust factor, because of his great upside he will be a bargain near the end of the first round of a dynasty rookie draft.

 

10. Le’Veon Bell, Michigan State 6‘ 1 3/8”, 230# 4.6 - Bell is one of the few power backs in the draft class. He has a strong build with thick thighs and hips. He has nimble feet for a player of his size and has some deception to his game, slipping through cracks at the line of scrimmage. He shows very good balance and despite running upright much of the time, he gets low into contact and is consistently able to get shoulders down to make himself a smaller target and to deliver a blow to tackler. Bell cannot change direction quick enough to make tacklers miss consistently. He lacks the burst to bounce runs outside and get around the corner. His lack of top end speed limits his ability to out-run angles and score long touchdowns.

He appears to sometimes wear down late in games and at times looks to have mentally checked out.

When he stays focused on his blocking technique and gives a good effort, he has the strength to be a good pass blocker. Often his technique is sloppy and he does not stay after and finish the block. Bell is a dependable receiver out of the backfield, possessing the soft hands and receiving skills to be an integral part of a complex passing game.

His all-around game reminds me of Legarrette Blount.

 

11. Kerwynn Williams, Utah State 5' 8 1/8", 195# 4.48 - Kerwynn Williams flies under the radar as perhaps the most un-talked-about RB talent in this year’s draft class. Makes me wish that his name was Kermit instead of Kerwynn, as in Kermit the Frog. Williams is a big play speed back who gets to his top speed quickly and is an explosive open field runner. In addition to being used as a RB, he will be an excellent kick returner. He runs with a tight running style, sometimes lacking decisiveness at the line of scrimmage. He won’t break many tackles, but give him a crease, and he’s gone. His vision is better in the open field than at the line of scrimmage, and his balance is only average.

His receiving skills are very impressive as he averaged 15.5 yards per catch on 45 receptions in 2012. He excelled in both the Great Idaho Potato Bowl against Toledo and at the Shrine game. He has the concept of pass blocking, but lacks pop.

Williams is a RB sleeper, but one who reminds me a great deal of 49ers rookie and ex-Oregon star LaMichael James, who was a second-round pick. If he can add 5 or 10 lbs more bulk to his lower body, he could be a huge surprise at the next level.

 

12. Rex Burkhead, Nebraska, 5’ 10 ¼” 214# 4.73 - Despite their similar size, in many ways, Rex Burkhead represents the anti-Christ(ine) Michael. I really like what Rex Burkhead brings to the table at the next level. Burkhead is a tough runner who has ideal size for the position and some real versatility. He is not straight-line fast, but his speed is deceptive and he has enough quickness to make subtle moves to make the defender miss. He has terrific vision and knows how to use his running lanes and when to hit the hole. He shows nice cutting ability and an extremely underrated burst through the hole. He can overpower smaller defenders and still has the agility to make tacklers miss in the open field. Burkhead is a much more explosive and a better athlete than folks give him credit for as was attested to by his 39“ vertical jump at the Combine.

He showed toughness played through a nagging knee injury in 2012 that slowed him down and will surely contribute to being drafted far lower than his skill set would otherwise dictate.

He is a phenomenal route runner and receiver out of the backfield. Burkhead has large soft hands and the ability to quickly turn and get upfield. While I don’t really expect it to happen, his upside is more of a Larry Centers type back. In fact, at Nebraska, he finished his career with more receiving yards than rushing yards. He’ll be a much better than average pass blocker as well.

Burkhead is underrated as a running back and should not be considered a fullback at the next level. He’s not going to be a franchise back, but he does all the small things extremely well. The team that drafts him will get a solid committee running back who can be a lead back if called upon to do so. Rex is a great character guy with solid leadership qualities who will out-work everybody on the field.

 

13. Knile Davis, Arkansas 5’ 11 3/8”, 227# 4.37 - If you've read this so far, you are probably saying to yourself - where is Knile Davis? Davis has two great positives - speed and power. He is really hard to bring down as he can blast his way through tacklers who don’t get a clean shot. He’s also a decent receiver for his size and he’s explosive in the open field. He is a capable pass blocker He’s never going to blow anyone away with his quickness – he’s all about getting straight up the field, where he has long speed that is just insane for his size. He also reaches top speed quickly and has above average change of direction skills.

On the negative side, his field vision is average or worse. And amazingly, in 2012 he had three times as many fumbles as TDs. In fact, he had 7 fumbles on 112 carries. His ball security issue will likely be a long term problem in the NFL. His hands are tiny at only 8 5/8”, and he carries the ball pretty loosely. He also lacks patience, often not giving his blocks time to develop, and he also prefers to run out of bounds instead of taking a hit. He often looks like a big back who thinks he is a small back, trying to make moves he doesn't really have so that he has to gather himself to change direction, and loses most of his momentum. He runs with a more upright style instead of running behind his pads and using them as weapons.

His high running style in turn exposes him to more injuries. He reminds me of Beanie Wells, but with even more injury issues. In fact he may have given new meaning the the terms "running back with ankle breaking abilities" and "injury prone". He has sustained broken ankles multiple times as well as two broken collar bones.

Knile Davis is an elite athlete, but just may be the biggest boom - bust prospect of this draft. His ceiling is high, but his floor is in the basement. His playing style and lack of a well-rounded skill set make Davis a back with three down potential, but a third tier one despite his obvious gifts.

 

14. Joseph Randle, Oklahoma State 6-0, 204# 4.63 - Joseph Randle may never become a lead back, but he has the ability to make an impact as a 3rd down back almost immediately in the NFL.

As a runner, Randle is a work in process. He is narrow in the lower body and relatively stiff in the hips, which affects his ability to maintain balance and stay upright on contact. He lacks explosion and he really struggles to accelerate out of his cuts. He’s a one-speed runner who lacks the extra gear to pull away from the secondary. A bit narrow through the lower body.

He lacks NFL power but has a very good ability to make himself skinny at the line and to wiggle and slink his way though for scores. He’s tough enough, and finishes his runs by lowering his shoulder and falling forward but he really doesn't offer much after contact and can be brought down too often with arm tackles.

The good news is that he significantly increased his strength as a junior and his frame is just starting to fill out.

The best part of Randle’s game is what he does on passing downs. He has over 100 college career receptions and can contribute both as a receiver out of the backfield and running routes from the wide receiver position. He is a a natural hands catcher with big soft hands that are more reliable than most wide receivers. He’s adept at following his blockers in the open field. But he is not explosive running after the catch.

Randle is uncommonly good at blitz recognition in pass protection. He meets pass rushers squarely and anchors well, always showing determination, but again his narrow base somewhat limits him as a blocker. He is much more advanced as a blocker than most college running backs.

Randle has shown continual development, and he has a high football IQ, is quick to read and react to a defense. He is aware of down and distance to first down markers and where the sideline boundaries are and the goal line is at.

He will be best in a committee rotation where he gets the bulk of the passing downs. But I doubt that he will ever be more than a 3rd down plus situational RB in the NFL.

 

Tier 4

15. Kenjon Barner, Oregon, 5’ 9 ¼’ 196# 4.52 - Barner lacks the size and lower body strength to be any kind of pile pusher. He displays nimble feet to make quick cuts and change directions smoothly but his overall strength as runner is disappointing. In the open field, he generally lets his blockers set up and reads the blocks correctly. He’s good at finding cutback lanes and his offensive line at Oregon usually opened up some big ones for him. The problem is that he almost always bounces runs to the outside. He shows very little discipline in taking the run where it was intended to go and instead is too eager to bounce it out for more yardage. Between the tackles, he occasionally lacks patience and recognition and skills, sometimes running right up the backs of his blockers because he did not anticipate holes opening. As a runner, Barner is a glider who can change direction without losing much speed. He’s got speed in the open field and can get to top speed in a hurry.

Barner just doesn’t seem to run with much toughness. As a back that’s known for his speed, his ability to do well in pass-protection could be his ticket to getting on the field on third downs in the NFL. While very inexperience as a pass protector, he stood out in the pass protection drills at the Senior Bowl. Still, his blocking will be impeded by his lack of core body strength. He is a reliable pass catcher who is comfortable catching with his hands, and he has experience running routes both from split end position and from the backfield. He was a very effective receiver of screen passes and swing passes for the Ducks.

Barner is strictly a finesse, speed back who can add value on passing downs, but most likely his only immediate contribution will be in the return game, where he’s able to put his speed and lateral quickness to good use.

 

16. Andre Ellington, Clemson - 5’ 9 1/4” 199# 4.61 - Andre Ellington is a back with natural athleticism and instinctiveness. He runs with short choppy steps and has impressive plant-and-go ability to quickly accelerate to top speed. While lacking elite top speed, he does show the ability to occasionally break into the open for a long run as he does possess some slippery elusiveness along with a second gear to pull away from defenders once he gets into the open field. Although he keeps shoulders low, Ellington struggles to keep his feet on contact and has limited ability to run through tackles; once he is wrapped he’s usually done. His vision is not as good as many smaller running backs. He lacks patience to set up his blocks, many times running right by them and sometimes missing the open hole. He’s far too eager to bounce runs outside.

Ellington lacks much college experience in the passing game mainly on screen passes. He doesn’t appear to like catching the football outside of his frame. Ellington needs to significantly improve his technique if he is to become a 3rd down back in the NFL. He struggles to sustain his blocks and is not aggressive when meeting blitzers head on.

Ellington will likely be purely a situational back and never be asked to carry a load in the NFL. He has some experience as a kick returner, where he can use his natural instinctiveness, explosiveness and ability to turn any run into a touchdown to his advantage.

 

Finally, after much thought, I decided not to rank Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina 5‘ 11 ¼”, 221 at all. When he was healthy, the pure talent was undeniable. But he wasn't the same back after suffering his first major knee injury. His second one tore all three major ligaments (ACL, LCL, and PCL) in a gruesome full dislocation, and was said by Dr. James Andrews to be the toughest knee reconstruction he has ever done. I know that both Lattimore and Andrews are saying that his recovery is going ahead of schedule, but what does that really mean? While Lattimore is great character person who I believe may have been a top 15 overall pick if he didn’t suffer the injuries, I doubt he’ll ever become the special franchise back that he could’ve been.

 

My goal is to get through the other skill positions before the 1st of April.

Meanwhile, enjoy these rankings. I call 'em as I see 'em, and I'm sure they will add much debate and discussion to what has become a great overall post.

 

In addition to commentary, please let me know if you spot any mistakes or redundancies in these commentaries.

[Hawkfin 32]

Hawk, while you were looking at WRs, QBs and TEs, I was putting the finishing touches on weeks of Running Back study, both highlight and game video as well as hours reviewing my notes from Postseason Bowl games, All Star Games and other internet scouting reports (to see what they might have seen that drastically differed from my own observations). although i would normally make a separate topic post on this, I am presenting these short-form descriptions of strengths and weaknesses here as I plan to submit my complete rankings and commentary to RosterWatch.com in the very near future (after taking an extended sabbatical there).

 

As every year, I need to disclaim that I expect that these rankings will bear little relation to what round I (or any draft pundits) think these guys will be drafted. The rankings are subject to radical adjustments post-draft depending on landing situation, and are strictly evaluations for fantaasy dynasty purposes.

 

That said, here goes:

 

Tier 1

1. Eddie Lacy, Alabama 5‘ 11“ 231 (Jr.) - Power. Vision. Burst. Quickness. Lacy has it all. He's in a class by himself as the #1 running back in this draft. You want negatives? Maybe he's just an average blocker for his size. But he'll seldom go down with out a fight and that means gang tackles - gangnam style. He also possess the hands and agility to factor into a passing game.

Since this ranking is no surprise, let's get on to tier 2.

 

Tier 2

2. Jonathan Franklin, UCLA, 5’ 10”, 205# 4.49 - Johnathan Franklin is a proven playmaker, but one who still needs development in the passing game and as a pass blocker. Franklin is a capable inside runner who keeps his legs moving after contact, but he is better served working in space where he can use his initial vision, and can make multiple cut-backs in the open field. He is instinctive in the open field, with a good ability to cut back against the pursuit of downfield defenders. His ability to stay balanced through contact is perhaps his greatest asset. His overall skill-set is solid and versaatile. Franklin hasn’t missed a game due to injury in his collegiate career. He has also improved each and every year is a high character player. He is not ‘elite’, but he has the potential to grow into a three down starting running back in the NFL.

 

2. Zac Stacy, Vanderbilt 5' 8 3/8", 216#, 4.55 - I’ll admit, I’ve probably watched more Zac Stacy video than any other running back. My first impression of Stacy was that he was a poor man’s Doug Martin. The more video I’ve watched, the more ready I am to remove the “poor man’s” label. Built with a strong lower body, he displays unnatural power for his size. He uses his blockers well and has a great ability to make himself skinny through the hole and to adjust his body through traffic. Zac has tremendous toughness.

I seldom cite stats in player evaluations, but Stacy led the SEC (regarded by many as the toughest conference in the country) in 2011 with a 5.94 yards per carry. He picked up 1193 rushing yards on 201 carries while playing without a sub-par supporting cast. Moreover, he came very close to repeating these stats in 2012.

As negatives, his speed and agility are only average so he is a mediocre outside runner. Stacy lacks great balance, and he is frequently tackled by defenders from behind or beside him.

Stacy is flying well under the radar and may be the most underrated prospect of the draft. Some team is going to get one hell of a football player.

 

3. Giovani Bernard, North Carolina 5-8 3/8, 202# 4.53 - Bernard has been tremendously productive as both a runner and a returner. He has played through pain and soreness from a repaired torn ACL.

He shows phenomenal instincts with terrific anticipation. Bernard has impressive vision and he almost always finds the correct lane. His acceleration and speed jumped off the video. He is explosive both laterally and vertically.

Bernard has smooth hands, is a natural receiver out of the backfield, but sometimes will react to "footsteps" on pass routes over the middle. In pass protection, he gives a strong effort and he does not shy away from contact and his blitz-pickup skills are advanced. He definitely looks ready to see the field early in his NFL career in the passing game.

But Bernard is purely a finesse back. His game is similar to Ryan Mathews. He prefers to run out of bounds rather than take the hit, even when he could have broken the play back up field. He does not like to get physical. At the end of runs, Bernard showed an alarming tendency to stop his feet and simply accept being tackled.

While Bernard has a ton of talent, he may have difficulty becoming a three-down back unless he develops toughness, both physically and mentally. In addition, he is undersized and already has an injury history including a torn ACL. Durability may be a problem.

 

4. Mike Gillislee, Florida, 5’ 11 1/8” 208#, 4.55 - I’m not usually enamored with running backs of Gillislee’s general build, but Gillislee is the exception. I believe that he can develop to be the lead back in a committee, and is strong both as a lead runner and as a 3rd down back. Gillislee has an extremely well-rounded skill set. He is a very decisive runner and doesn't dance behind the line of scrimmage. Gillislee simply makes one cut and quickly charges ahead. He has excellent ability to dodge defenders and pick up positive yards. With his compact running style, he showcases surprising power and strength for his size. He is highly effective running between the tackles displaying the vision to cut into tiny creases and is able to get through the hole quickly and into the second level at top speed. He does not shy away from contact and is able to run through arm tackles. Gillislee is tough, and has played through painful injuries without losing effectiveness.

While he didn’t catch many passes in college, he has very good hands and the ability to catch passes underneath and in traffic. He will also be a threat after the catch to pick up some long gains with both his speed and his ability to cut back against the grain in the open field. As with most backs coming out of college, his pass blocking is a work in process.

I believe Gillislee has enough size to be an every down back at the next level but because of his build he may be best suited as lead back in a committee in the NFL. He is a high character player.

 

5. Ray Graham, Pittsburgh 5'9 1/8" 199#, 4.8 - I really like Ray Graham, already have him on my Fat Bastards dynasty team and was disappointed when he tore his ACL. However, he’s made a nice comeback and managed to play some quality football toward the end of his senior year (watch his game vs Notre Dame). Grahams impressive vision combined with his agility makes him a big play threat. Graham is a playmaker with impressive lateral agility and an explosive change of direction to cut on a dime and maintain his balance. He’s got a real ability to find cutback lanes and often when there is no hole, he can find a way to pick up 10 yards. He has great ability as a receiver, and has the ability to create separation in open field with cuts and subtle moves to avoid big hits. He shows the ability to pluck the ball away from his frame and has even made some impressive one handed catches in his college career. He is a willing pass blocker who is too often over-powered by pass rushers.

After a disappointing Combine, I’ll be watching his pro-day with interest. But even if he again times out slowly in the 40, I believe he can fully recover his speed by training camp, and represents a tremendous value in your rookie draft because he will go late due to the uncertainty.

 

6. Montee Ball, Wisconsin 5-10 ¼”, 214 4.66 - Ball was utra-productive at Wisconsin with a NCAA record of 83 career TDs, displaying a great ability to fight for the tough yards to get into the end zone. His running style is extremely patient, waiting for the hole to open and then he cuts and gets through it with a terrific burst. He has great balance and seldom gets knocked off his base with one shot. He runs with determination and technique, lowering his pads on contact and running with a forward lean. He’s good at making himself skinny through the hole, occasionally busting out a sweet spin move. His technique needs to be good, because his leg drive isn’t impressive and he seldom powers through good wrap tackles, He is a one speed runner who lacks a second gear to pull away from defenders.

Ball wasn’t often used as a receiver at Wisconsin, but he is capable, and has occasionally lined up at wide receiver and ran routes down-field. He is a willing blocker but shows poor technique, struggling to sustain his blocks after initial contact. As with most rookies, his technique should be corrected with more coaching.

Because he is not a true power back and he lacks speed, his skill set is average. His style reminds of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, good starter potential but far from elite.

 

Tier 3

1. Stepfan Taylor, Stanford, 5’ 9 1/8”, 214# 4.76 - Like Montee Ball, Stepfan Taylor lacks an elite top gear, but he does everything else well, if not outstanding. He has powerful legs. As a runner, he commits quickly to the hole and possesses adequate initial burst to get through it before it collapses. He never shies from contact, and keeps his feet churning on impact, keeping his weight forward and therefore is able to grind out the extra half-yard falling down. Like fellow rookie, Montee Ball, he does lack the raw power to pound his way to extra yards after contact, and his below average long speed won’t allow him to break too many long runs at the next level. His skill set best suits a one-cut running system, but he has enough shiftiness and wiggle to make defenders miss in space and possesses surprising burst out of a vertical move or stop-start.

He also is a solid pass-catcher. He consistently plucks the ball away from his frame and looks it in before turning upfield. His vision is only average as he doesn't always spot the cutback lane, and will engage defenders head-on rather than see that open lane. He also tends to run narrow in the open field and loses balance when he needs to move laterally with suddenness.

He reminds of a Chester Taylor, in that he is technically sound and well-rounded. He does not possess any one elite physical tool or attribute, but brings toughness and consistent production along with versatility in the passing game both as a receiver and blocker. While not having a terrifically high ceiling, he just may be one of the the safest running back in this class. He never missed a game during his college career.

 

2. Christine Michael, Texas A&M 5' 10", 220# 4.54 - I wouldn’t blame you if you shot for the moon and drafted Christine Michael ahead of similar sized but far more productive backs like Montee Ball and Stepfan Taylor. Michael is probably the most talented RB in this class not named Eddie Lacy. Unfortunately, he also has potentially the greatest bust factor of any RB in the class not named Knile Davis.

Michael is an explosive power-back with the ability to also make you miss through the hole. His compact, thickly-built body is especially strong throughout his hips and thighs. He runs with good burst and with a naturally low pad level. He is decisive with his first cut, plant, and drive upfield and he and reacts well to his blocks. He shows good vision for the cutback, and excellent agility and shiftiness for a bigger back. His weapons as a tackle breaker also include a nice spin move and a strong stiff-arm. Michael's speed will catch defenses by surprise. When he get into the open field, he can take to it the endzone.

Michael comes with injury concerns. He broke his tibula in 2010 ending his season after nine games, and suffered a torn left ACL in November 1011. Most significantly though, Michael comes with a high ‘knucklehead factor” Although Michael has flashed NFL talent throughout his career, his career at Texas A & M has been wildly inconsistent . Poor attitude and effort earned him a spot on the bench for much of his senior season, At the Scouting Combine, in typical Michael fashion, he overslept and missed two meetings with teams.

Despite his high bust factor, because of his great upside he will be a bargain near the end of the first round of a dynasty rookie draft.

 

3. Le’Veon Bell, Michigan State 6‘ 1 3/8”, 230# 4.6 - Bell is one of the few power backs in the draft class. He has a strong build with thick thighs and hips. He has nimble feet for a player of his size and has some deception to his game, slipping through cracks at the line of scrimmage. He shows very good balance and despite running upright much of the time, he gets low into contact and is consistently able to get shoulders down to make himself a smaller target and to deliver a blow to tackler. Bell cannot change direction quick enough to make tacklers miss consistently. He lacks the burst to bounce runs outside and get around the corner. His lack of top end speed limits his ability to out-run angles and score long touchdowns.

He appears to sometimes wear down late in games and at times looks to have mentally checked out.

When he stays focused on his blocking technique and gives a good effort, he has the strength to be a good pass blocker. Often his technique is sloppy and he does not stay after and finish the block. Bell is a dependable receiver out of the backfield, possessing the soft hands and receiving skills to be an integral part of a complex passing game.

His all-around game reminds me of Legarrette Blount.

 

4. Kerwynn Williams, Utah State 5' 8 1/8", 195# 4.48 - Kerwynn Williams flies under the radar as perhaps the most un-talked-about RB talent in this year’s draft class. Makes me wish that his name was Kermit instead of Kerwynn, as in Kermit the Frog. Williams is a big play speed back who gets to his top speed quickly and is an explosive open field runner. In addition to being used as a RB, he will be an excellent kick returner. He runs with a tight running style, sometimes lacking decisiveness at the line of scrimmage. He won’t break many tackles, but give him a crease, and he’s gone. His vision is better in the open field than at the line of scrimmage, and his balance is only average.

His receiving skills are very impressive as he averaged 15.5 yards per catch on 45 receptions in 2012. He excelled in both the Potato Bowl against Toledo and at the Shrine game. He has the concept of pass blocking, but lacks pop.

Williams is a RB sleeper, but one who reminds me a great deal of 49ers rookie and ex-Oregon star LaMichael James, who was a second-round pick. If he can add 5 or 10 lbs more bulk to his lower body, he could be a huge surprise at the next level.

 

5. Rex Burkhead, Nebraska, 5’ 10 ¼” 214# 4.73 - Despite their similar size, in many ways, Rex Burkhead represents the anti-Christ(ine) Michael. I really like what Rex Burkhead brings to the table at the next level. Burkhead is a tough runner who has ideal size for the position and some real versatility. He is not straight-line fast, but his speed is deceptive and he has enough quickness to make subtle moves to make the defender miss. He has terrific vision and knows how to use his running lanes and when to hit the hole. He shows nice cutting ability and an extremely underrated burst through the hole. He can overpower smaller defenders and still has the agility to make tacklers miss in the open field. Burkhead is a much more explosive and a better athlete than folks give him credit for as was attested to by his 39“ vertical jump at the Combine.

He showed toughness played through a nagging knee injury in 2012 that slowed him down and will surely contribute to being drafted far lower than his skill set would otherwise dictate.

He is a phenomenal route runner and receiver out of the backfield. Burkhead has large soft hands and the ability to quickly turn and get upfield. While I don’t really expect it to happen, his upside is more of a Larry Centers type back. In fact, at Nebraska, he finished his career with more receiving yards than rushing yards. He’ll be a much better than average pass blocker as well.

Burkhead is underrated as a running back and should not be considered a fullback at the next level. He’s not going to be a franchise back, but he does all the small things extremely well. The team that drafts him will get a solid committee running back who can be a lead back if called upon to do so. Rex is a great character guy with solid leadership qualities who will out-work everybody on the field.

 

6. Knile Davis, Arkansas 5’ 11 3/8”, 227# 4.37 - If you've read this so far, you are probably saying to yourself - where is Knile Davis? Davis has two great positives - speed and power. He is really hard to bring down as he can blast his way through tacklers who don’t get a clean shot. He’s also a decent receiver for his size and he’s explosive in the open field. He is a capable pass blocker He’s never going to blow anyone away with his quickness – he’s all about getting straight up the field, where he has long speed that is just insane for his size. He also reaches top speed quickly and has above average change of direction skills.

On the negative side, his field vision is average or worse. And amazingly, in 2012 he had three times as many fumbles as TDs. In fact, he had 7 fumbles on 112 carries. His ball security issue will likely be a long term problem in the NFL. His hands are tiny at only 8 5/8”, and he carries the ball pretty loosely. He also lacks patience, not giving his blocks time to develop, and he also prefers to run out of bounds instead of taking a hit. He often looks like a big back who thinks he is a scatback, trying to make moves he doesn't really have so that when he has to gather himself to change direction, he loses most of his momentum. He runs with a more upright style instead of running behind his pads and using them as weapons them. This running style in turn will expose him to more injuries. He reminds me of Beanie Wells, but with even more injury issues. So far these include THREE broken ankles (two of them in high school) and TWO brokeN collarbones.

Knile Davis is an elite athlete but just may be the biggest boom - bust prospect of this draft. His ceiling is high, but his floor is the basement. His playing style and lack of a well-rounded skill set make Davis a back with three down potential, but a third tier one despite his obvious gifts.

 

7. Joseph Randle, Oklahoma State 6-0, 204# 4.63 - Joseph Randle may never become a lead back, but he has the ability to make an impact as a 3rd down back almost immediately in the NFL.

As a runner, Randle is a work in process. He is narrow in the lower body and relatively stiff in the hips, which affects his ability to maintain balance and stay upright on contact. He lacks explosion and he really struggles to accelerate out of his cuts. He’s a one-speed runner who lacks the extra gear to pull away from the secondary. A bit narrow through the lower body.

He lacks NFL power but has a very good ability to make himself skinny at the line and to wiggle and slink his way though for scores. He’s tough enough, and finishes his runs by lowering his shoulder and falling forward but he really doesn't offer much after contact and can be brought down too often with arm tackles.

The good news is that he significantly increased his strength as a junior and his frame is just starting to fill out.

The best part of Randle’s game is what he does on passing downs. He has over 100 college career receptions and can contribute both as a receiver out of the backfield and running routes from the wide receiver position. He is a a natural hands catcher with big soft hands that are more reliable most wide receivers. He’s adept at following his blockers in the open field. But he is not explosive running after the catch.

Randle is uncommonly good at blitz recognition in pass protection. He meets pass rushers squarely and anchors well, always showing determination, but again his narrow base somewhat limits him as a blocker. He is much more advanced as a blocker than most college running backs.

Randle has shown continual development, and he has a high football IQ, is quick to read and react to a defense. He is aware of down and distance to first down markers and where the sideline boundaries are and the goal line is at.

He will be best in a committee rotation where he gets the bulk of the passing downs. But I doubt that he will ever be more than a 3rd down plus situational RB in the NFL.

 

8. Kenjon Barner, Oregon, 5’ 9 ¼’ 196# 4.52 - Barner lacks the size and lower body strength to be any kind of pile pusher. He displays nimble feet to make quick cuts and change directions smoothly but his overall strength as runner is disappointing. In the open field, he generally lets his blockers set up and reads the blocks correctly. He’s good at finding cutback lanes and his offensive line usually opens up some big ones for him. The problem is that he almost always bounces runs to the outside. He shows very little discipline in taking the run where it was intended to go and instead is too eager to bounce it out for more yardage. Between the tackles, he occasionally lacks patience and recognition and skills, sometimes running right up the backs of his blockers because he did not anticipate holes opening. As a runner, Barner is a glider who can change direction without losing much speed. He’s got speed in the open field and can get to top speed in a hurry.

Barner just doesn’t seem to run with much toughness. As a back that’s known for his speed, his ability to do well in pass-protection could be his ticket to getting on the field on third downs in the NFL. While very inexperience as a pass protector, he stood out in the pass protection drills at the Senior Bowl. Still, his blocking will be impeded by his lack of core body strength. He is a reliable pass catcher who is comfortable catching with his hands, and he has experience running routes both from split end position and from the backfield. He was a very effective receiver of screen passes and swing passes for the Ducks.

Barner is strictly a finesse, speed back who can add value on passing downs, but most likely his only immediate contribution will be in the return game, where he’s able to put his speed and lateral quickness to good use.

 

9. Andre Ellington, Clemson - 5’ 1/4” 199# 4.61 - Andre Ellington is a back with natural athleticism and instinctiveness. He runs with short choppy steps and has impressive plant-and-go ability to quickly accelerate to top speed. While lacking elite speed, he does show the ability to occasionally break into the open for a long run as he does possess some slippery elusiveness along with a second gear to pull away from defenders once he gets into the open field. Although he keeps shoulders low, Ellington struggles to keep his feet on contact and has limited ability to run through tackles; once he is wrapped he’s usually done. His vision is not as good as many smaller running backs. He lacks patience to set up his blocks, many times running right by them and sometimes missing the open hole. He’s far too eager to bounce runs outside.

Ellington lacks much college experience in the passing game mainly on screen passes. He doesn’t appear to like catching the football outside of his frame. Ellington needs to significantly improve his technique if he is to become a 3rd down back in the NFL. He struggles to sustain his blocks and is not aggressive when meeting blitzers head on.

Ellington will likely be purely a situational back and will never be asked to carry a load in the NFL. He has some experience as a kick returner, where he can use his natural instinctiveness, explosiveness and ability to turn any run into a touchdown to his advantage.

 

Finally, after much thought, I decided not to rank Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina 5‘ 11 ¼”, 221 at all. When he was healthy, the pure talent was undeniable. But he wasn't the same back after suffering his first major knee injury. His second one tore all three major ligaments (ACL, LCL, and PCL) in a gruesome full dislocation, and was said by Dr. James Andrews to be the toughest knee reconstruction he has ever done. i know that Moth Lattimore and Andrews are saying that his recovery is going ahead of schedule, but what does that really mean? While Lattimore is great character person who would’ve been a top 15 overall pick if he didn’t suffer the injuries, I doubt he’ll ever be the special franchise back that he could’ve been.

 

My goal is to get through the other skill positions before the 1st of April.

Meanwhile, enjoy these rankings. I call 'em as I see 'em, and I'm sure they will add much debate and discussion to what has become a great overall post.

 

In addition to commentary, please let me know if you spot any mistakes or redundancies in these commentaries.

WOW, great write up! You put mine to shame. hahah

 

I'll be honest, I only skimmed over it because I don't want your views to taint or influence mine when I do my RB's. But, I sure will come back to this and re-read everything. And then possibly adjust, etc. Also, I know very little about this position at the moment.

But, great input and lots to read over later when I do my RB's.

 

Looking quickly at some of your numbers, stats, etc. I will be curious about Knile Davis. When you talk about power who can catch and hard to bring down and blasts for yards. And then I also see that he runs in the 4.3 range. Something seems strange?

That combo usually makes a stud back.

But, I have not seen any tape so we'll see.

 

Also, I thought I looked at M. Ball last year. If it's what I remember, I kind of liked him. He reminded me of a cross between Lynch and M Jones Drew. But, I'm not sure if this is the same back?

 

Anyway, great input.

I'll come back to this down the road.

Thank you sir!

[madd futher mucker 36]

What, did I nail them all?? No comments other than Hawk? No feedback? I surely expected at least somebody here would tell me I'm full of sh!t.

[Kopy 491]

What, did I nail them all?? No comments other than Hawk? No feedback? I surely expected at least somebody here would tell me I'm full of sh!t.

My 2 favorite backs are #2 and 3 on your list. And although I have Lacy at #3 myself. I can't argue against anyone putting him at the top.

(In fact, as a guy who holds the #4 and 5 picks this year. I'm hoping he does go 1 or 2).

So I have nothing to argue over.

[Kopy 491]

I do have 1 question though.

If you could compare some of the guys, to someone already in the league, who would they be?

 

Lacy -

Franklin -

Stacy -

Bernard - Mathews

Gillisee -

Graham -

Ball - BGE

Taylor - Taylor

Michael -

Bell - Blount

Williams - James

Burkhead -

Davis - Wells

Randle -

Barner -

Ellington -

 

Also regarding Lattimore. Obviously when drafting him, your essentially making a 2014 pick this year. Big rosters and leagues with I.R. will still be all over this kid.

Where do you expect him to go in rookie drafts, compared to where you think his value should be in rookie drafts?

[Kopy 491]

Madd and lesjroza. I sent you 2 a quick pm. If you get a free second, let me know as I'm interested in others input. I put it in a pm form though, just incase I had some snipers looking from my league.

 

Thanks,

Brian

[madd futher mucker 36]

I do have 1 question though.

If you could compare some of the guys, to someone already in the league, who would they be?

 

Also regarding Lattimore. Obviously when drafting him, your essentially making a 2014 pick this year. Big rosters and leagues with I.R. will still be all over this kid.

Where do you expect him to go in rookie drafts, compared to where you think his value should be in rookie drafts?

 

I think that is two questions. I'll give you two non- answers.

First non-answer: nobody is really that much like anyone else when you do a full skill assessment including body type, etc. So unless the comparatives come to me as being some pretty accurate descriptors, I preferr not to even try to find a look-alike for every player i watch.

 

Second non-answer: I expect that Lattimore will pretty much be drafted all over the boards in rookie drafts, because there is such a vast array of confusion and speculation as to where he is regarding his injury. I'd guess in just about every league someone is going to take a way too early chance on him.

 

Personally he would be on my "don't draft til round 4 - and I don't have a 4th round rookie pick), which means he would go well before I'd consider him. I would not going tie up a space for two years even on my inactive developmental squad for a guy who I think is a good be never to contribute fantasy-wise at all, or may be three years away from he making any sort of meaningful contribution.

[Kopy 491]

I suppose that was 2 questions.

 

Thanks

[boshek95 0]

I think that is two questions. I'll give you two non- answers.

First non-answer: nobody is really that much like anyone else when you do a full skill assessment including body type, etc. So unless the comparatives come to me as being some pretty accurate descriptors, I preferr not to even try to find a look-alike for every player i watch.

 

Second non-answer: I expect that Lattimore will pretty much be drafted all over the boards in rookie drafts, because there is such a vast array of confusion and speculation as to where he is regarding his injury. I'd guess in just about every league someone is going to take a way too early chance on him.

 

Personally he would be on my "don't draft til round 4 - and I don't have a 4th round rookie pick), which means he would go well before I'd consider him. I would not going tie up a space for two years even on my inactive developmental squad for a guy who I think is a good be never to contribute fantasy-wise at all, or may be three years away from he making any sort of meaningful contribution.

 

On Lattimore, I don't mean to speculate on his actual value here, but my feeling is that he'll be a late 1st or early 2nd in most dynasty leagues. Call it hype or whatever, but the name value and upside of a healthy Lattimore will drive his draft spot. While it will be difficult for dynasty owners to be patient on Lattimore, I think owners will dream of a 2014 where he is starting or contributing heavily for an NFL team... and that will make the injury stuff fade to the background.

 

Whether or not Lattimore is actually worthy of being a late 1st or early 2nd dynasty pick is another debate, I suppose, but that is the ballpark where I see him landing. But I'm largely just guessing.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Evan Silva of Rotoworld, who I greatly respect, today just put on his site his own RB rankings complete with his notes.

 

You can follow this link to compare with mine. http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/42700/60/nfl-draft-rb-tape-review?pg=1

 

This is a great read from a guy who also watches the game video. We see most of these guys very similarly, but I imagine Evan and i could have a lively debate on a few of them.

 

for those too lazy to click to the link, our biggest difference is where we have Stacy and Ellington positioned. We almost have them reversed from each other. Silva is much lower than i am on Stepfan Taylor. Also he's very high on ND RB Ciere Wood who I didn't even rank, while he did not rank Sexy Rexy Burkheadt or Kerwynn Williams both of whom I'd rank in my top 16.

 

But I was amazed at the number of RBs where we saw extremely similar strengths and weaknesses. Even our writing styles and use of words and phrases are even very similar....the damn guy must be copying my work....(JK, Evan).

[ralphster 274]

Great work as usual Bill. I'm a little higher on Ball, Bell and Michaels than you are this year and a little lower on a couple others. I have not gone through as much tape to date as you have though, so I might update things a bit here soon.

[RLLD 3,455]

RE: Mike Ford, the mystery man. Obviously tested great. Here is a quote I found regarding him:

 

"But Ford never completely grabbed the starting job and held on tightly. He was probably the fastest of the LSU backs last season, but didn't block as well in pass protection, struggled as a receiver and also had fumble problems."

If he is still there at 4.05 I will gladly take a chance on him, but not before...

 

 

Have to be careful with such information around here, there are people who prefer to ignore such things and pretend that they do not matter.....and get angry when you accurately point them out.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I'm still working my way through the WR position, but here are my top two. Now that I've watched plenty of video, I don't see the top tier changing, but which one you put first depends on whether you put greater value on a solid safe pick or huge upside. These two similarly sized receivers are indeed a study in contrast. Here is my tier one and you can chose your order of preference:

 

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee 6’ 1 7/8” 216# 4.42 - Patterson was frustratingly hard to evaluate because his upside is so high and yet he is so raw. In the end, I simply could not ignore his unlimited upside and game breaking potential. With his strength, quickness and acceleration, he can beat the jam consistently, even though he could be much more physical in releasing. He tends to struggle against big aggressive corners, allowing them to relatively easily disrupt his routes. But for his size, he may be the most elusive player I’ve ever watched. Patterson changes direction incredibly well, which despite his poor route running, allowed him to create separation at every level. He makes dynamic cuts that showcase tremendous acceleration, putting his foot in the ground and exploding upfield. There’s no question that he possesses WR1 tools and the greatest "wow" factor of this class. It is his is run-after-catch ability that just jumps off the video, as he combines quick changes of direction and raw speed with outstanding vision in the open field. When the ball is in his hands, Patterson is always a threat to break a big play. In addition to ability as a wide receiver, he also projects as a dynamic return man on kick-offs as well as a threat on reverses and gadget plays.

On the other hand, Patterson is extremely raw and has many things to work on. A very undisciplined, unpolished router runner, Patterson also body catches way too much. The only time he extends his hands out to catch the football is when it’s outside of his frame. When the ball does come to him outside his body, Patterson shows the ability to attack and high-point the ball. However, he appears inconsistent and at this stage of his development, he is not the type of receiver that will often out-muscle for contested balls in traffic or win his share of jump balls. He also drops too many passes because he loses focus too frequently (his drop of a wide-open TD pass against Georgia sticks in my mind), or fumbles or otherwise makes careless plays (his “give-up” on a route against Akron which was directly responsible for a pick-six is an example). There were stretches in games where he looked somewhat disinterested and other times when he would try to do too much with the ball in the open field, losing yardage as a result.

He’s incredibly raw and a bit immature. He transferred from junior college and started for the Volunteers in week one. Can you really expect a guy who was the equivalent of a college freshman to be a finished product at wide receiver? Patterson does not come with any major character red flags. But he will need time to develop into an NFL wide receiver and I would expect his is first year as a pro to be a huge adjustment year.

The real key to Cordarrelle Patterson is this: How badly does he want to be great? If he wants it badly enough, he could become the league’s next great receiver. Or he could be the next talented bust.

 

 

DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson 6‘1, 214# 4.57 - Hopkins is my favorite wide receiver in this draft class. Unlike Patterson, his game is extremely well developed and he displays himself to be an intensely competitive athlete. He should be a very productive NFL wide receiver right from the start of his NFL career. While he lacks the ability to create separation with speed or quick lateral cuts, he still almost always gets himself open at will by subtle changes of speed and great ability to disguise his routes. He gets off the line has enough burst to get into his route quickly against physical corners. Hopkins is at his best catching the ball outside of his frame and has a huge catch radius (33 3/8" arms along with a 36“ vertical) which he uses to full advantage. His ball skills are tremendous, and his leaping ability allows him to get up for a pass above a defensive back. He’s not afraid to go across the middle. Hopkins is aggressive after catch, getting up field immediately and is physical enough to bounce off tacklers. He showed it all off against LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl Game. This was perhaps the best performance I’ve ever seen from a college receiver. When Sammy Watkins left the game in Clemson’s first offensive series, Hopkins was forced to consistently defeat double coverage. And he did just that. He also made difficult catches with the corner draped all over him. He had two difficult touchdown receptions, several third down completions and then made the play of the game on 4th and 16 to keep the game-winning drive alive.

Hopkins is not most dynamic receiver in this draft class. He is just average when it comes speed and quickness. He will never take the top off of the defense, but he will be outstanding working the intermediate field and also win on fade routes in the end zone. He will be is a driven performer who will work hard and his impact will be felt early at the next level.

 

 

 

Those are the top two. The rest will come later. So do you pick Hopkins or do you pick Patterson if you need a wide receiver?

[Kopy 491]

It depends on what type of drafter you are.

If you draft now, so we're taking out the team, camp and preseason equasions. Some draft for upside, others for safe.

Patterson has the risk/upside, potential stud factor.

Hopkins is the safe, sure bet for quality production.

[ralphster 274]

Those are the top two. The rest will come later. So do you pick Hopkins or do you pick Patterson if you need a wide receiver?

 

Too many issues with WRs imo - I take Hopkins every time.

 

Looking forward to the rest of your WR rankings.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Too many issues with WRs imo - I take Hopkins every time.

 

Looking forward to the rest of your WR rankings.

 

I'll have it on rosterwatch in about 10 days, then I'll link to it here. LOL - Alex says no more free samples to u guys without the linky.

[Kopy 491]

Sounds like Lattimores recovery is going well.

Boy, do I hope his draft stock rises. I think he'll go in the 1.9, to 1.12 range in my draft. With some mid to late round picks in my pocket. I sure hope someone reaches earlier, and lets someone else fall who really shouldn't for my grabbing.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Yes, i never heard of a draft prospect get a standing ovation at a workout before. That doesn't mean he will be ready for 2013, but I'm hoping for the best for him.....

 

This place has been so dead these last couple weeks that I might as well hype a couple of things. Alex at RosterWatch got married a couple of weeks ago and got behind with his site a little (I guess that honeymoons will do that to ya). I understand that he will be putting my Wide Receiver ranking series up on his site beginning tomorrow. He will probably start with the lowest ranking ones and put up more players every day until he posts my #1 ranked WR. But I can't say for sure.

 

To wet your appetite a little bit, here are the links to my RB rankings for your review (They were previously posted here unlinked):

 

Tier 1: http://rosterwatch.com/?p=8079

Teir 2: http://rosterwatch.com/?p=8085

Tier 3: http://rosterwatch.com/?p=8107

Tier 4: http://rosterwatch.com/?p=8219

 

All I know is that the first of the series is supposed to begin tomorrow and I'll link 'em here as he puts them up on his site. Who will be my #1 Ranked WR? Will it be Patterson? Hopkins? Who is your #1 guy?

 

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I also want to put a plug in for Matt Waldman and his Rookie Scouting Portfolio. It will be delivered to your email for download (about 300 pages or so in pdf format) on April 1st. I just pre-ordered mine tonight. You can order yours at http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/

 

I'm a cheap bastard, so when I say that it is the only thing that I spend my money on every year when it comes to fantasy football, that is speaking volumes! Again this year. it is only $19.95 and that will also include about a 75 page post-draft supplement that will re-rank the skill position players based on their landing spot (for no additional cost).

 

By the way, 10% of all proceeds goes to Matt's favorite charity, the Darkness to Light Program. Their mission is : "...is to empower people to prevent child sexual abuse. Darkness to Light’s public awareness campaign seeks to raise awareness of the prevalence and consequences of child sexual abuse."

 

If I sound like a shill for Matt and his RSP it is because i know Matt and i know his expertise and the amout of effort and time he pours into this thing. It is simply the best evaluation tool for skill position rookies there is out there in cyberspace.

[Hawkfin 32]

I'm still working my way through the WR position, but here are my top two. Now that I've watched plenty of video, I don't see the top tier changing, but which one you put first depends on whether you put greater value on a solid safe pick or huge upside. These two similarly sized receivers are indeed a study in contrast. Here is my tier one and you can chose your order of preference:

 

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee 6’ 1 7/8” 216# 4.42  - Patterson was frustratingly hard to evaluate because his upside is so high and yet he is so raw. In the end, I simply could not ignore his unlimited upside and game breaking potential. With his strength, quickness and acceleration, he can beat the jam consistently, even though he could be much more physical in releasing. He tends to struggle against big aggressive corners, allowing them to relatively easily disrupt his routes. But for his size, he may be the most elusive player I’ve ever watched. Patterson changes direction incredibly well, which despite his poor route running, allowed him to create separation at every level. He makes dynamic cuts that showcase tremendous acceleration, putting his foot in the ground and exploding upfield. There’s no question that he possesses WR1 tools and the greatest "wow" factor of this class. It is his is run-after-catch ability that just jumps off the video, as he combines quick changes of direction and raw speed with outstanding vision in the open field. When the ball is in his hands, Patterson is always a threat to break a big play. In addition to ability as a wide receiver, he also projects as a dynamic return man on kick-offs as well as a threat on reverses and gadget plays.

On the other hand, Patterson is extremely raw and has many things to work on. A very undisciplined, unpolished router runner, Patterson also body catches way too much. The only time he extends his hands out to catch the football is when it’s outside of his frame. When the ball does come to him outside his body, Patterson shows the ability to attack and high-point the ball. However, he appears inconsistent and at this stage of his development, he is not the type of receiver that will often out-muscle for contested balls in traffic or win his share of jump balls. He also drops too many passes because he loses focus too frequently (his drop of a wide-open TD pass against Georgia sticks in my mind), or fumbles or otherwise makes careless plays (his “give-up” on a route against Akron which was directly responsible for a pick-six is an example). There were stretches in games where he looked somewhat disinterested and other times when he would try to do too much with the ball in the open field, losing yardage as a result.

He’s incredibly raw and a bit immature. He transferred from junior college and started for the Volunteers in week one. Can you really expect a guy who was the equivalent of a college freshman to be a finished product at wide receiver? Patterson does not come with any major character red flags. But he will need time to develop into an NFL wide receiver and I would expect his is first year as a pro to be a huge adjustment year.

The real key to Cordarrelle Patterson is this: How badly does he want to be great? If he wants it badly enough, he could become the league’s next great receiver. Or he could be the next talented bust.

 

 

DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson 6‘1, 214# 4.57 - Hopkins is my favorite wide receiver in this draft class. Unlike Patterson, his game is extremely well developed and he displays himself to be an intensely competitive athlete. He should be a very productive NFL wide receiver right from the start of his NFL career. While he lacks the ability to create separation with speed or quick lateral cuts, he still almost always gets himself open at will by subtle changes of speed and great ability to disguise his routes. He gets off the line has enough burst to get into his route quickly against physical corners. Hopkins is at his best catching the ball outside of his frame and has a huge catch radius (33 3/8" arms along with a 36“ vertical) which he uses to full advantage. His ball skills are tremendous, and his leaping ability allows him to get up for a pass above a defensive back. He’s not afraid to go across the middle. Hopkins is aggressive after catch, getting up field immediately and is physical enough to bounce off tacklers. He showed it all off against LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl Game. This was perhaps the best performance I’ve ever seen from a college receiver. When Sammy Watkins left the game in Clemson’s first offensive series, Hopkins was forced to consistently defeat double coverage. And he did just that. He also made difficult catches with the corner draped all over him. He had two difficult touchdown receptions, several third down completions and then made the play of the game on 4th and 16 to keep the game-winning drive alive.

Hopkins is not most dynamic receiver in this draft class. He is just average when it comes speed and quickness. He will never take the top off of the defense, but he will be outstanding working the intermediate field and also win on fade routes in the end zone. He will be is a driven performer who will work hard and his impact will be felt early at the next level.

 

 

 

Those are the top two. The rest will come later. So do you pick Hopkins or do you pick Patterson if you need a wide receiver?

 

Great writeup.... These two are also in my top 3 or 4 depending on Allen pro day.

I still have Austin ahead of Hopkins though.

 

I like Hopkins a lot, but I don't see the upside with him. He seems limited to what he is, and the speed may not be there. Patterson has way more upside. I'll take the raw upside almost every time, as long as he shows enough of the good qualities. And I think he did.

 

I do like the way Hopkins attacks the ball up high though. This is something I would have liked to seen with Patterson, and never really did. If he could add that element it would be huge for him.

Patterson's Rawness I think stems from only 1 year with the team. I'm not sure this is a issue. I think he booms.

 

But, I pretty much agree with the entire write up on these two. Very detailed and accurate. Thanks

[madd futher mucker 36]

Since RosterWatch haven't posted my stuff on Wide Receivers yet, and Waldman's "book" due out tomorrow morning, I decided to give you guys what will now be an "early edition" of how I view the WR class. Let me say first that as much as I love the solidness of DeAndre Hopkins game, Cordorrelle Patterson has a chance to become a really special WR.

So without further ado, here are my pre-Combine rankings for this year’s wide receiver class. The class is both talented and deep. These rankings will bear little relation to these guys will be drafted these guys will be drafted in. They are strictly evaluations for fantasy dynasty purposes, and are subject to radical adjustments post-draft depending on the situation they are drafted into.

 

 

Tier 1

 

1. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee 6’ 1 7/8” 216# 4.42 - Patterson is frustratingly hard to evaluate because his upside is so high and he is so raw. In the end, you simply cannot ignore his unlimited upside and game breaking potential. With his strength, quickness and acceleration, he can beat the jam consistently, even though he could be much more physical in releasing. He tends to struggle against big aggressive corners, allowing them to relatively easily disrupt his routes. For his size, Patterson changes direction incredibly well which, despite his poor route running, allowed him to create separation at every level. He makes dynamic cuts that showcase tremendous acceleration, putting his foot in the ground and exploding up-field. There’s no question that he possess No. 1 wide receiver tools and the greatest "wow" factor of this class. It is his is run-after-catch ability that jumps off the video, as he combines quick changes of direction and raw speed with outstanding vision in the open field. For his size, he may be the most elusive player I’ve ever watched. Patterson is always a threat to break a big play. In addition to ability as a wide receiver, he also projects as a dynamic return man on kick-offs as well as a threat on reverses and gadget plays.

Patterson is raw and has many things to work on. He is very undisciplined, unpolished route runner. He doesn’t explode out of his breaks real well and he body catches way too much. The only time he extends his hands to catch the football is when it’s outside of his frame. When the ball does come to him outside his body, Patterson shows the ability to attack and high-point the ball. At this stage of his development, he is not the type of receiver that will often out-muscle for contested balls in traffic. He also loses focus too frequently, causing him to drop passes (his drop of a wide open TD pass against Georgia sticks in my mind), fumble or otherwise careless plays (his “give-up” on a route against Akron was directly responsible for a pick-six). There were stretches in games where he just looked disinterested. Other times he would try to do too much with the ball in the open field and lose yardage as a result.

Patterson transferred from junior college and started for the Volunteers in week one. Can you really expect a finished product from what essentially amounts to a freshman in college? Patterson doesn’t have any major character red flags. But he will need time to develop into an NFL wide receiver. The real key to Cordarrelle Patterson is this: How badly does he want to be great? If he wants it badly enough, he could become the league’s next truly great receiver.

 

2. DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson 6‘1, 214# 4.57 - Hopkins is my favorite wide receiver in this draft class. Unlike Patterson, his game is extremely well developed and he is an intensely competitive athlete. He should be a very productive NFL wide receiver right from the start of his NFL career. While he lacks some ability to create separation with speed or quick lateral cuts, he still almost always gets himself open at will by subtle changes of speed and great ability to disguise his routes. He gets off the line with enough burst to get into his route quickly against physical corners. Hopkins is at his best catching the ball outside of his frame and has a huge catch radius (33 3/8" arms along with a 36“vertical) which he uses to full advantage. His ball skills are tremendous, and his leaping ability allows him to get up for a pass above a defensive back. He’s not afraid to go across the middle. Hopkins is aggressive after catch, getting up field immediately and is physical enough to bounce off tacklers. He showed it all against LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl Game. This was one of the best performances I’ve ever seen from a college receiver in a big game. Sammy Watkins left the game in Clemson’s first offensive series, so Hopkins was forced to consistently beat double coverage. And he did just that. He also made difficult catches with the corner draped all over him. He had two difficult touchdown receptions, several third down completions and then made the play of the game on 4th and 16 to keep the game-winning drive alive.

Hopkins is not most dynamic receiver in this draft class. His just average when it comes to speed and quickness. He will never take the top off of the defense, but he will be outstanding working the intermediate field and also on fade routes in the end zone. What he will be is a driven performer who will work hard and his impact will be felt early at the next level. He has the highest floor in this draft class.

 

 

Tier 2

 

3. Keenan Allen, California 6’ 2”, 206 #, 4.56 estimate - Keenen Allen combines all of the attributes necessary to become a quality wide receiver at the next level. His body is ideal for an NFL receiver, with big 10” hands and a huge catch radius. Allen plays a very physical game. He is strong enough to fight off jams and beat press coverage. He uses his body well to post up a defender as he goes after the football. He is tough to bring down and his body will absorb contact allowing him to hang on to the football in traffic and fight for extra yards. His strength, decent leaping ability and catch radius make him excellent in the red zone.

Allen possesses the build up speed of a long strider. He’s fast but he’s never going to take the top off a defense. Yet for his size, Allen is a very good route runner. He changes speed and direction very well for big man, and is capable of making precise cuts out of his breaks when he concentrates on that aspect. He is not always precise, however, and often rounds out his cuts or runs his routes at the wrong depth. He is very good against zone coverage with a natural knack for finding the soft spots in the zone.

He has good body control when tracking the football. Like many receivers coming out of college, he catches balls better that are thrown outside of his frame. He tends to fight balls thrown directly at him, preferring to let them come into his body. He fights hard for additional yards after contact, but sometimes fumbles because he fails to protect the football. I see him as more of a big possession receiver than your prototypical WR1.

He lacked a legitimate QB last year, but it is somewhat disturbing that his production dropped significantly even before his injury. He was much better as a sophomore than a junior. However in both years he produced despite often being double and sometimes triple covered.

Keenan Allen is a clutch player who generally gets the most out of abilities, especially on important third downs late in the game.

There is one major injury concern to note. In late October, Allen sprained his PCL which ended his season prematurely. It has now been five months and that PCL injury still is not completely healed, causing him to miss both the Scouting Combine and his mid-March Pro Day.

 

4. Da’Rick Rogers, Tennessee Tech 6’2 2 ½”, 217# 4.52 - Da’Rick Rogers has the perfect size and strength to be a great NFL wide receiver. Some see him as having the best all around skill-set at his position in the entire draft. While I’m not sure I agree with that opinion, it is saying a lot considering that this is one of the deeper, more talented draft classes I’ve seen at the wide receiver position.

Rogers is not a speedster despite a better than average Combine 40 time of 4.52. He is able to out-muscle defenders at the line, then shift into his second gear to go up and grab the football with no fear of any defender bearing down on him. He has the strength to dominate in any situation on the field, and also has the athletic ability to adjust to the ball. He is an extremely fluid athlete who can run routes and make moves of a much smaller receiver. He ran an extensive route tree at Knoxsville, so he should not have much of an adjustment to running routes in the NFL. Much like Hines Ward, Rogers has a linebacker mentality in a wide receiver's body. He relishes contact whether he is running with the football or throwing a downfield block. Defensive backs can just about forget about trying to get a contested ball away from him. He’s not a natural hands catcher, but with the ball in his hands he’s tremendous after the catch.

Rogers led the SEC in receptions in 2011 and would easily have been a top 20 pick in the upcoming draft if it were not for his huge red flags - his love for “MaryJane” being only one of them. His interviews at the Combine will need to have been great, because he had much to explain. Rogers got booted off Tennessee’s football team prior to the start of the 2012 season officially because of “multiple violations of the school‘s substance abuse policy for athletes“. “Multiple violations” mean he apparently used it openly and often. This was not his only issue. Off the field, he was a consistent head ache for the Tennessee coaching staff, a total pain-in-the-ass prima-donna. He was suspended several times for incidents with his coaches - one was described as a “complete meltdown”. On the positive side, Da’Rick Rodgers had no problems since transferring to Tennessee Tech and playing under Coach Watson Brown: “He's been perfect off the field," Brown said. "He's gone to class. He's doing what he's supposed to do, and it's been fantastic. We've not had one issue with Da'Rick whatsoever.”

Much like Cordarrelle Patterson, Da’Rick Rodgers has the genetics of all of the great wide receivers and has what coaches cannot teach: strength, speed, fluidity, and the instinct and natural ability to dominate. With more maturity, he could become far more than just a solid NFL starter, but it may require the right coach to keep him in check. The current NFL players he most reminds me of - both on and off the field - are Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams and Dallas’ Dez Bryant.

 

5. Stedman Bailey, West Virginia - 5' 10 ¼”, 193# 4.52 - Stedman Bailey is the unnoticed gem of this draft class. He gets overlooked because he shares the field with Geno Smith and Tavon Austin. I know, because until I took a second and then a third look at his games, I was guilty of overlooking his talent myself.

But Stedman Bailey should be nicknamed “Steady Stedman” because his game is so consistent and he just does everything well. He has extremely soft, sure and natural hands. He's as reliable of a pass-catcher as there is in this draft. He makes all the easy catches, but he also makes the difficult catches look easy. He will make the diving catch of a low thrown ball on one play, and go up and pluck a ball thrown high the very next play. He also tracks and catches balls over his shoulder extremely well. He is the type of receiver who will make his quarterback look better than he is.

His speed and explosiveness may be less than that of his college teammate, Tavon Austin, but he is much stronger. He is a fluid athlete who uses deception and his outstanding body control to make up for this lack of explosiveness. He is a polished and savvy route runner who almost always finds a way to get open. He has the moves and enough strength get good release off the line. He gets out of his cuts and changes speed effortlessly. After the catch, he will get the tough yards and break tackles with more strength than a defender suspected he ever had. He was used as Austin’s lead blocker in the return game and he gives great effort and sustains his blocks very well. He’s a perfectionist who does the important little things well in every part of his game. He is not ever satisfied with the “now” but has shown a strong desire to continue to improve his game at every level of his development.

He probably can master all of the wide receiver positions, but until his NFL team fully realizes what he is capable of, his size will likely limit him initially to playing from the slot. Bailey has been outstandingly productive at West Virginia and I believe he will continue to do the same in the pros. He’s the rare athlete who at 5’ 10” is plenty big enough, because he has the desire and the talent to play much bigger than his size. Shhhh. Don‘t tell anyone. I have him higher on my personal dynasty draft list than his teammate, Tavon Austin.

 

 

6. Markus Wheaton, Oregon, 5’ 11” 189# 4.45 - Wheaton’s calling card is his quickness. His feet are usually a step ahead of his defender on virtually every route he runs. While he has a slight build and could stand to add some more muscle, Wheaton compensates with good use of his hands and quick footwork against more physical corners. He has an especially strong swim move and the lateral agility to get off quickly and into his route. But he occasionally can be taken out of his route by a stronger defender. He has impressive body control and ball tracking skills, displaying the flexibility to catch balls thrown behind him or over his shoulder on deep routes He also has the ability to adjust to poorly-thrown passes. He recognizes zone coverage and will adjust his routes to find the soft spot. He always knows where he is on the field and can get his feet down in bounds while tracking the ball. Wheaton has shown strong hands and is an outstanding pass catcher in traffic, but occasionally he will let the ball come into his frame as opposed to attacking it.

He was a team leader and one of the hardest working players on the Beavers team. He was an extremely willing blocker, who looked to get out in front of the runner and was never afraid to take on a bigger defender.

Wheaton is one of the biggest playmakers at his position in this draft class and has the ability to be a threat at all levels of the passing game. He reminds me some of Antonio Brown.

 

7. Tavon Austin, West Virginia 5’ 8 ½”, 174# 4.34 - The first thing people notice about Austin is that he is like greased lightning - quick, fast, and elusive. But what I really loved when watching video of his game was his aggressive, running back-like mindset. Austin’s game is decisive and attacking. You won’t see him dancing when he has the ball. He excels at seeing the field in front of him, using his downfield blockers and he is extremely difficult to tackle when he gets open in space. In fact, at West Virginia he often was used as a running back out of the pistol. In one game (against Oklahoma), he accounted for an amazing 344 yards as a runner on 21 carries. Even though he’s slender, he displays good upper body strength and has uncanny ability to get yards after contact. Given his frame, the fact that he lifted 225 pounds 14 times at the Combine was just incredible. He reminds me of some mixture of Percy Harvin, Dexter McCluster, and Steve Smith (but he is a good 10+ lbs smaller than Harvin and Smith).

His small stature and lack of bulk does figure to present a problem. Let’s be realistic. How many NFL receivers can you name who are less than 175 pounds and who have had any significant fantasy impact over any meaningful timeframe? Assuming that his body can take the pounding, even with his elite quickness and legitimate breakaway speed, there are some elements to his game where he’s going to be a liability. For instance, he is simply too small to make much impact as a downfield blocker. And while he is normally a sure handed receiver, he has dropped his share of easy passes because he was anticipating a hit from the defender ready to pop him.

He will be used in the return game, but for the right team he has a real chance to become that special slot receiver. Austin didn’t run the full route tree for West Virginia. He was mainly used on slants, screens and stick routes underneath. He had the ability to run precise routes, change direction and break out so quickly that he often got open at will against man coverage . He also stands outs against zone coverage, because he very quickly finds the coverage holes and sits in the space between defenders. And he obviously has the world-class speed to take the top off the coverage as well.

Austin is a playmaker who NFL opponents should need to account for on every play, because he represents a potential six points every time he touches the football. He will need to be drafted onto just the right NFL team to maximize both his fantasy football effectiveness and his NFL longevity. Sadly, few NFL coaches will have the creativity to use him as much more than an undersized slot receiver.

 

8. Chris Harper, Kansas State, 6’ ¾”, 229# 4.55 - Chris Harper is a big bodied, thickly built wide receiver who uses his size to full advantage in every aspect of his game. Having been a converted quarterback, he understands the art of running routes. He only needs to refine his technique and he has the ability to be effective using the whole route tree. Harper’s hands are impressively strong and he does a great job of plucking the ball out of the air and away from his body. When he has the ball in his hands, he turns and gets up the field quickly. Harper possesses deceiving elusiveness in the open field but when his is met by contact he uses his power to get the tough yards after the catch. He has deceptive long speed to occasionally take off downfield with a double move, and has both the size and athleticism to create a mismatch when he does. He has very good body control and ability to adjust his body to the ball. He uses his big frame to box out defenders from the ball like a power forward in basketball. Harper has good leaping ability (35 ½” vertical) which combined with his ability to shield defenders away from the football gives him a significant advantage over shorter faster cornerbacks. All of these same attributes make him a great target in the red zone. As with many wide receiver prospects in the draft class, his ability to refine his game will determine how much success he enjoys at the next level. I predict that success will come sooner rather than later. He is the receiver in this class that most closely reminds me of Anquan Boldin.

 

9. Aaron Dobson, Marshall, 6’3” 210# 4.40 Pro Day - Dobson could not perform at the scouting combine due to a hamstring pull, but he posted a 4.4 forty time in his Pro Day, along with leaping 10'1 in the broad jump and a vertical jump of 35 inches. Pro day times are notoriously faster than Combine times so this probably equates to a still respectable 4.5 or slightly better.

Aaron Dobson is another receiver who is a nice combination of strength and size. His running style is smooth and he can quickly get to top speed. He often will get past corners who underestimate his speed. His feet are fluid, his hip turns are sharp for a man of his size, and he demonstrates decent explosion into and out of his breaks, although he has a tendency to round off his routes. He uses his hands well, often bulling his way through a jam. The best part of Dobson’s game is his ability to adjust to the football and make the catch with a defender all over him. He has incredibly strong hands, and has made some of the most amazing catches look almost routine. You must YouTube “Dobson - The Catch” against Eastern Carolina to watch an example. Dobson is a willing and able downfield blocker.

He was a team captain his senior year at Marshall, and is a quiet but confident player who leads by example. Dobson improved his game every year in college and he put together a productive collegiate career despite never having worked with a quality quarterback. His production dropped his senior year as he had some trouble with hip, ankle, knee injuries. But keep in mind that he played in Conference USA, so didn’t have to go up against many top-level defenders. His game reminds me of Pierre Garcon, who was another small school prospect. I expect that his best football is still ahead of him on Sundays in the NFL.

 

10. Justin Hunter, Tennessee 6’ 4”, 196# 4.44 - Hunter is perhaps the most naturally gifted receiver in this draft class. He has elite size, speed and athleticism. At Tennessee, Hunter lined up all over the field. He has no problem beating the jam simply using his quickness and speed. He has outstanding deep speed to get open past the last level of the defense. He has tremendous leaping ability along with a huge catch radius. He has elite body control and tremendous ball skills that allow him to adjust to poorly thrown passes. He excels at high pointing passes in jump balls situations and is also able to use his size to make plays in traffic inside. He has excellent hands and can effortlessly pluck the football.

Why isn’t he ranked higher? A year and a half after his September 2011 ACL tear, Hunter no longer appears to be the same player he was before. His injury seems to have significantly affected his mental approach to the game. He shows a penchant for concentration lapses leading to too many dropped passes, and he also often run sloppy routes. In every aspect, he doesn’t appear to be quite the dynamic playmaker that he was before the ACL.

His ability and body type remind one of both AJ Green and Randy Moss, but he just does not seem to share their passion to become great. Far more than Randy Moss, he will make a highlight reel play one minute, and a glaring mental mistake the next. Hunter is not particularly strong or physical, so he needs to add a more physical dimension to his game at the next level. He does not appear to put effort into or enjoy downfield blocking.

Still, there is no question that much like his college teammate, Patterson, he has an extremely high ceiling in the NFL if he can get his act completely together. Hunter put his raw athleticism on display at the Combine with an almost 40 inch vertical and a long jump of over 11 feet in addition to showing off his 4.4 speed. But he unlike Patterson, who appears to play with unbridled passion but with a lack of control, Hunter doesn’t show any real drive or edge to his game. Former Vols coach Derek Dooley publicly called Hunter out last season on his attitude and work ethic, essentially saying what can be seen from much of his game video - that he just wasn't living up to his hype. If he gets a good position coach or veteran receiver/mentor early in his NFL career who can light a fire in his belly (or under his butt), Hunter will become the next great NFL wide receiver.

 

Tier 3

 

11. Aaron Mellette, Elon, 6’ 2 ½” 217# 4.54 - Aaron Mellette is my guy. He has a long frame with long arms and enough quickness and speed to be a difference maker in the NFL. He might take a year or two to fully develop his game but the desire to excel and the natural ability are both there. He catches virtually everything although he does occasionally have a tendency to fight the ball. He can create yards after the catch. Given his small school background, he’s a pretty decent route runner. His greatest weakness is that he is a very poor run blocker.

Here’s a little background on the kid. (I’m quoting from some past scouting report now): “One of the reasons Mellette was invited to the Senior Bowl was that he put up ridiculous, video-game-type numbers in his four seasons at Elon. That he was in Mobile at all was something of a shock. Mellette was a late bloomer. He didn't play pee wee or Pop Warner football because [his mom] was afraid her son would get hurt.” So he hadn’t played much football before he enrolled at Elon College in the FCS conference. His game really began to develop as a sophomore, when he put up 1100 yards. But he took his game to historic levels in his junior year. Against Vanderbilt of the SEC conference in the first game of the season, he had 113 catches for 180 yards and a TD. He went on to amass 1,639 yards and 12 TDs on 113 receptions all in just 11 games. That is an average of 149 yards per game. He followed up with a senior year of 97 catches for 1,408 yards and 18 TDs.

At this year’s Senior Bowl, Mellette showed he could easily hang with the big boys, displaying his ability to get open and come down with the football.

Mellette has size, hands and instincts. He just needs the top level coaching and the reps. He is beginning to be compared to last year’s small school receiver. Brian Quick. He is not as fast, but he did enough in his Senior Bowl week performances to convince me he may be the better prospect.

 

12. Robert Woods, USC 6’ ½”, 201# 4.51 - Robert Woods is a well rounded and explosive wide receiving talent. He's quick, has good size and better than average speed, but isn't dominant in any single category. There are faster, quicker and bigger receivers in this draft, but Woods is that pure receiver who plays at his best against top competition and in huge games.

He has a lean, slender, and athletic frame with good upper body strength. He’s not built for contact, but he never shies away from it, which may have been a contributing factor to his numerous injuries while at USC. He bulked up before the Scouting combine (while USC listed him as 6-1-190, the combine has him at 6-0-201).

His better than average speed will allow him to run by most defenders. But what stands out about Woods are his hands and his route running abilities. He has soft hands and if the ball is in his vicinity, he's probably going to catch it. He makes tough catches look easy, and will put his body on the line to come up with the football. He understands the full route tree and recognizes coverages. He stays very aware of down and distance situations. He is a polished and precise route runner who is very good at counting his steps and timing his routes. Woods does not lose speed coming in and out of breaks. He creates separation with quick acceleration and fluid changes of direction. Despite his size he was a very productive redzone target for the Trojans. Once he secures the ball he displays good field vision, and is able to pick up yardage after the catch.

Woods has had quite a few injuries including multiple ankle injuries which have put his NFL future success in jeopardy. His right ankle has never really looked right despite having arthroscopic surgery in December of 2011. He also had concussion symptoms in last year. He is a significant draft risk, because it is not extremely likely that his ankle will check out under NFL medical scrutiny.

Woods is a total competitor with a fiery personality who will always give 100% effort. He is the type of player who wants the ball in critical situations and will more often than not come up with the big play. If he can get past an ankle injury issue, what you see is a very intelligent, competitive and athletic football player who is NFL ready. But I downgraded him due to his ankle.

 

13. Ryan Swope, Texas A&M, 6’ ¼” 204# 4.34 - Ryan Swope is an under-rated wide receiver (and yes, he’s a white guy) with a game that I’ve really come to appreciate. He was injured during Senior Bowl, but Swope already had shown the consistency that NFL scouts covet. He really was one of the best wide receivers in A&M history but he was getting somewhat pigeonholed as strictly a slot receiver in the NFL, in part because the Aggie offense really did not fully showcase his skills. Ryan Swope has the potential to be much more than your typical slot reeiver. Swope’s sure hands and deceptive quickness have lead to Jordy Nelson comparisons, except that Swope is faster. He is a good, reliable route runner who knows how to drop his hips going into his breaks and he is especially fearless over the middle of the field. He’s very good at finding the soft spots against zone defenses, and against man coverage he is especially adept running routes with double moves. Swope has very reliable hands and adjusts well to balls thrown away from his body. He is aggressive and capable of running through arm tackles against defensive backs, and can still use his raw speed to run by them. With the ball in his hands he plays with toughness and the willingness of a running back to fight for extra yardage after contact.

I usually give little weight to that underwear olympics called the NFL Scouting Combine, but for those who do, Swope impressed everyone with his incredible 40 time and his overall athleticism. In the NFL, Swope is likely become that team leader who will do whatever it takes to win. You can see from his game video the desire and the will to give full effort on every play. It would not surprise me if Swope winds up with as long and as productive of a career as any receiver in this draft class. There is one red flag however - according to reports, Swope has a medical history that includes multiple concussions (I believe the number is 4), which is the only reason I‘ve ranked him this low.

 

14. Marquess Wilson, Washington State 6‘ 2 5/8”, 194# 4.51 - Wilson is a player with great ball skills, soft hands and great playmaking ability. He was productive during his three years at Washington State, catching 50 or more passes each season. He is not an elite prospect, but he does have enough ability to make an impact at the NFL level if he can add some muscle to his frame. That would help in every aspect of his game, but especially in getting a clean break against a jam at the line of scrimmage. Despite his lean frame, he tries to be physical and his game has just a bit of a nasty streak. He was consistently capable of making the tough catch in traffic over the middle.

Wilson uses is long frame well to shield defenders from his body and make the catch. He will go up and bring down the ball over the defensive back. He has great body control to turn to find and adjust to the ball in the air. He also is a great redzone threat with his long frame and good leaping ability. Wilson is a long strider who can run past defenders with well better than average speed.

At Washington State, he ran a variety of routes but he is only average in this area. He is more smooth than quick, and he tends gear down going into his breaks and to get sloppy at the top of his routes. Both of these tendencies limit his ability to get separation. He can also get pushed off routes too easily by physical defensive backs Still, he has the body control to run great fade routes, and vertical double moves. He will really need to improve on his route running technique in order to be on the field at the next level. On the other hand, he is a reliable receiver with good technique catching the football with his hands. After the catch, he is not a tackle breaker, but he is elusive and uses his downfield blockers well. He is not a good consistent downfield blocker. All in all, Wilson has enough ability to eventually develop into a quality NFL starter if he can become a more physical presence on the field.

The biggest impediment to his NFL career is not his overall skill-set but rather his off the field “issue”.

Wilson burned bridges at Washington State when he quit the team and alleged he had suffered “physical, emotional and mental abuse” at the hands of coach Mike Leach. He later recanted his statement and Leach was cleared of wrongdoing. When asked how he was going to explain the situation in interviews at the Combine, Wilson said “"I'm just going to tell the truth," Wilson said, "and let them see my character through that. The stuff they were doing, it wasn't right."

 

15. Terrance Williams, Baylor, 6’ 2” 208# 4.52 - Terrance Williams had a terrific senior season for the Baylor Bears with 97 receptions for 1832 yards and 12 TD’s. So his inconsistent Senior Bowl week and lackluster Combine performances were cause for considerable re-assessment.

Williams is physical with excellent ability off the line but he was rarely pressed at Baylor. He needs to improve as a route runner. He either lacks the experience or the motivation to master the whole route tree with consistently good breaks and cuts. He has a tendency to stay too high into and out of his breaks, which slows him down and makes him easier to cover. This is an area that he should improve upon because he could be very good. While he isn’t sudden and doesn’t have the greatest lateral agility, you can see that the athleticism is there. He works well over the middle of the field as well as attacking the seams of the defense vertically. Before this last season, he was used primarily on go-routes. He was much better this year on intermediate routes working the spaces between the linebackers and the defensive backs.

While he doesn't have elite size or speed, he is still well above-average in these categories. He is deceptively strong and can out-muscle defenders. He possesses very elite body control. He can high point the ball with his leaping ability and long arms. He will make catches while tiptoeing the sideline. His ability to adjust his body to the ball while in the air is outstanding. Williams is dangerous after the catch. He’s physical enough to break tackles and has the ability to outrun most opposing defenders.

Williams has good but not great hands. He has a bad habit of often being a “body catcher” instead of reaching out and grabbing it with his hands. He struggled to consistently catch the football in 2010 and 2011, but improved greatly in this area for his senior season at Baylor.

Terrance Williams does appear to have some Randy Moss syndrome in him. He gets lazy when the play isn't designed for him. When he’s not the first option on a pass play, he gives less effort than when he expects the ball to be coming his way. He's a pretty good blocker when he wants to be, he just doesn't give 100 percent all the time.

While he still can be madly inconsistent in his overall play, Williams did step up his game in 2012 in virtually every facet There are no red flags due to either injury or character. You can see flashes of the pro receiver he has the potential to become, but he does not yet appear to be ready for prime time in the NFL.

 

 

16. Quinton Patton, Louisiana Tech, 6’ 0”, 204# 4.53 - Patton might be the poor man’s version of DeAndre Hopkins. He doesn’t quite have elite speed or athleticism, but his overall game is solid. Few receivers can rival Patton's guile and precise route-running ability. He has the size, quickness and agility to be effective against press coverage. He has great short area quickness and change of direction skills with a knack for setting defenders up with crafty moves early in routes, and his sneaky burst out of the break routinely leads to adequate separation. Patton also has strong hands and outstanding concentration in traffic. Patton shows exceptional body control and is able to turn and track the ball in the air. He has just enough speed to stretch the field and is enough of an open field runner to make plays after the catch. His downfield blocking is outstanding and he is a maximum effort player.

It’s hard for me to find what’s not to like about Patton. He is polished in everything he does, which is precisely my problem with him. I’ve seen this movie before. He leaves me with some memories of my overly optimistic evaluation of Brian Robiskie coming to the pros out of college. Robiskie’s game was so well developed that it disguised the fact that his talent was limited and his upside was already pretty much maxed out.

 

17. Uzoma Nwachukwu, Texas A&M 5’ 11 ¼” 198 # No Combine invite, 4.44 estimated - I really love the name, but judging from his work this year at the Texas Versus the Nation All star week, he also has game. Nwachukwu was underutilized as a receiver and was overshadowed by teammate Ryan Swope during his career at Texas A & M, but he has the skills to play football in the NFL. If you're looking for a speed merchant, Nwachukwu is the man to take the top off of the coverage. For the most part, defensive backs were powerless during the All Star week to stop Nwachukwu from getting open downfield with his head fakes and double moves. He has the quicks and the strength to fight through press coverage. He flashes the ability to catch the ball in traffic and to win battles for contested balls He is a bit tight in the hips, but he showed he could run precise routes to create separation in the short and intermediate game. When he gets open deep, he can track and catch the football over either shoulder. He sometimes drops the football when he fails to look the ball in or forgets to catch the ball with his hands. Nwachukwu's hands and concentration might leave something to be desired, but his raw physical talent could make Nwachukwu a potential diamond in the rough. Nwachukwu relies on his elite speed in the open field, and is not particularly creative after the catch. His Texas v Nation All Star week (where he caught everything thrown his way) capped off an impressive but underappreciated senior year with the Aggies, as he was used more as a downfield blocker for Johnny Manziel and Ryan Swope than as a receiver. Remember the name - UZOMA NWACHUKWU - and there is a good chance you will thank me later. Especially if you can get him in round four of your rookie dynasty draft.

 

 

Tier 4

 

18. Keenan Davis, Iowa 6' 2 1/8" 216#, No Combine invite, 4.55 estimated - Keenan Davis was not particularly productive in the very poor program at Iowa, but after his excellent work throughout the Shrine Game week, it was very disappointing that Davis did not get an invitation to the Scouting Combine. With ideal size and length, Davis works very well over the middle of the field. He displayed good route running skills over the entire route tree. Davis is very capable of selling his double move and creating some separation on vertical routes, but he will probably never do real well working the outside of the field. He is somewhat elusive and shows some power to break through tackles, but he is much less physical than his size would indicate. It is his ability to adjust to the ball in traffic, and extend to catch the ball away from his body that make him an intriguing receiver for working the middle of the field. I could see him doing particularly well working underneath routes in a west coast offense. He attacks the ball well in the air, and tracks the ball well vertically, but the knock on Davis is his lack of aggression for his size. He often loses to smaller cornerbacks on contested balls. Because of his good body control in the air and ability to highpoint the football, he will be an asset as a redzone threat. He is a very good blocker who is able to create and sustain a seal against a defender downfield.

But whether it was the coaching, his own laidback personality, or the lackluster offensive supporting cast in Iowa City, he was a bit of an underachiever who did not show great improvement during his four years of college. Davis is good character player who could easily be more productive at the next level. Last year, he was the only receiver that Iowa had who could consistently be counted on to run the correct route and catch the football. I believe he could have a bright future in the NFL if he will only begin to use that big body and become more physical when competing for the ball.

 

 

19. Rodney Smith, Florida State 6' 4 3/8", 225#, 4.51 - With his ideal body type, Rodney Smith looks the part of a NFL starting receiver, and with time he may just become one. He was never asked to run many different routes at Florida State, so after four years in the program he is still very raw. He has better than decent speed for a big man, but he is not quick and lacks technique in his routes. His hands are also only average. He did flash a little during the 2013 Shrine Game week. He especially seemed to take well to NFL style coaching, and he worked hard to improve his routes and get separation. He also adjusted well to the ball. What he did not do very well is attack the football in the air. Despite his size, he would allow a cornerback to out-muscle him far too often. He does not have strong hands or play with anywhere near the degree of physicality that befits his size. Smith has underperformed his entire career for the Seminoles, but he stepped up a little bit last season with a career high 561 yards and four touchdowns. His best attribute right now is his ability to block as a receiver. Since he showed a desire at the Shrine Game to step up his game, I’m not ready to dismiss Rodney Smith. He is a project, but with solid NFL coaching, I believe he has the ability to make an impact in the NFL.

 

 

20. Marquise Goodwin, Texas, 5’ 8 7/8” 183# 4.27 - Speed is the name of his game, but he often looks like a track guy trying to play wide receiver. Goodwin brings value to the table as a kickoff and punt returner in addition to what an NFL team may be able to get out of him as a receiver. He does have big play ability. In the Valero Alamo Bowl against Oregon State, he displayed both his versatility and his ability to take it to the house with a rushing touchdown on a 64-yard reverse and adding a 36-yard receiving touchdown.

While he will make an impact in the return game at the next level right away, as a receiver he lacks in all facets. He has never had more than 33 catches in any season at Texas (25 last year) and there are good reasons for his lack of production as a receiver. He is poor off the line against press coverage, so before he can become the vertical threat he could be, he must learn to overcome the jam. As a route runner, he can quickly throttle down when changing direction, showing balance and explosion in his routes, but he needs to learn the subtleties of route running. His hip flexibility needs work. Corners can readily push Goodwin off of his routes. When he does get a free release, his speed will make defenders pay, but only when he hangs on to the football. His 8 ½” hands are very suspect and 30 ¾” arms are also well below average. He drops far too many balls, both when he is in traffic and when he is wide open. Goodwin would have had even a bigger game at the Alamo Bowl except that he was wide open in the end zone and dropped a sure touchdown pass. Even with the ball in his hands, he lacks elusiveness and is too easily brought down by arm tackles. He struggles to block in space because of his lack of strength and bulk. His game centers purely on his elite speed. At this stage of his development as a receiver, he is limited to catching screens, running vertical routes and taking handoffs. He may never be more than a sometimes dangerous return man in the NFL.

Goodwin’s slight frame raises concerns about his ability to stay healthy at the NFL level. He suffered two concussions during his senior year with the Longhorns, so that is yet another red flag. His ceiling is probably Ted Ginn. He's just not worth the gamble from a fantasy dynasty perspective.

 

 

You have probably noticed I did not rank Denard Robinson, Michigan, 5’ 10 1/2”, 199# 4.43 - There’s no doubt he’s got the athletic qualities you look for in the NFL, but what exactly is he? Michigan did him absolutely no favors by playing him at the quarterback position. There’s no question he is not a quarterback. His performance at the Senior Bowl tells me he is not a wide receiver either - not yet anyway - although he did look better in Combine position drills. What do we call him? Denard Robinson, Athlete? How about Denard Robinson, Project. Will he be a project at wide receiver, running back, or safety? Stay tuned.

 

 

I'm guessing this list will provide much good discussion and debate. Bring it on, guys!

[Kopy 491]

Thanks MAdd. Very quality stuff here.

Got 1 question for you. I've been asking everyone who's scouting this.

 

How much emphasis are you putting on Keenan Allens pro day, along with his draft team?

 

My main Q is. If he shows he's over is injury. He is what he is, he's at where he's at. But, how much would he drop in your rankings, if he has a bad April?

Or, would he not, because his talent is there once he does hit an NFL team at full strengh.

[polecatt 403]

Ray Rice, MJD, Doug Martin....part deux.

 

Dude is gonna be a factor in the league. Take my word on it; just draft his back up as he has a bit of injury risk.

 

I'm a long time Tar Heel fan so I have seen this guy play a lot. He has what it takes. I saw that the first time I saw him play. He does get nicked up a lot but what RB isn't that a concern for?

As for a comparison? He's a Miami Hurricane RB from Butch Davis. Think Portis, Gore, McGahee, etc. Shifty, quick, and tough to get down easy. A pretty well balanced RB.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Thanks MAdd. Very quality stuff here.

Got 1 question for you. I've been asking everyone who's scouting this.

 

How much emphasis are you putting on Keenan Allens pro day, along with his draft team?

 

My main Q is. If he shows he's over is injury. He is what he is, he's at where he's at. But, how much would he drop in your rankings, if he has a bad April?

Or, would he not, because his talent is there once he does hit an NFL team at full strengh.

 

He's a guy that I struggled with because of the injury. Without the injury, he's as good as it gets; he would have been in tier 1 right along with Patterson and Hopkins. Closer to Patterson in potentially huge upside and closer to Hopkins in pure receiving skills.

 

A normal MCL should have been healed by now - especially one i believe they were calling a "sprain", not a tear. So there may be something more there. I'm not going to change my draft rankings between now and the draft, and not very likely to pay any attention at all to what happens at a re-scheduled pro day (I didn't even realize that one had been re-scheduled).

 

But how early Allen goes in the NFL draft will say enough about what NFL teams are privy to that I'm not - whether he checks out medically. If he goes in the 1st round or early 2nd, I'd say he's a very safe pick to take high in a rookie draft. However, if he does get drafted very much later, I think it is safe to assume that there would be more significant medical concerns.

[Voltaire 4,560]

Remember the name - UZOMA NWACHUKWU - and there is a good chance you will thank me later. Especially if you can get him in round four of your rookie dynasty draft.

 

 

You ask to much of us to remember the name. I won't bother trying. Fortunatly it sticks out when I read it, which accomplishes the same effect. If I ever pick up on how to pronounce it, it'll be for the same reason I now know how to spell Ndamukong, it'll mean you were right.

 

Also your evaluations are so in depth and interesting. I couldn't watch that much tape, let alone demonstrate that much skill at it. Hugs to your family, my wife would kill me.

[madd futher mucker 36]

 

Also your evaluations are so in depth and interesting. I couldn't watch that much tape, let alone demonstrate that much skill at it. Hugs to your family, my wife would kill me.

 

Thanks, Voltaire, Doing this type of analysis is a great hobby that is rewarding and fun all by itself. But it is comments like yours that put the frosting on the cake.

 

It helps that I am in my mid 60s, been married for lots of years, and do this mainly after my wife goes to bed. I'm sure there are worse vices I could have (and yes, I had my share of them when I as younger). It also doesn't hurt that I have a heart condition and therefore I know for sure that my wife won't kill me for all the time I spend on fantasy football.

[Kopy 491]

Last years consensus #1 for the majority of us was Robert Blackmon.

Where would everyone rank him with this crop of WR's?

[madd futher mucker 36]

I would place him pre-NFL draft in the 4-7 range of this year's class.

[Kopy 491]

I would place him pre-NFL draft in the 4-7 range of this year's class.

Thanks. What about 1 more.

You were very high on Marvin Jones last year. Is he still a hold for you, and how would you rank him?

I did take him as a flier at the end of the year, mostly because of your high praise. But I think he's gonna be a cut for me in order to draft this year.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Yes, he would be a numbers casualty on my team too, but not necessarily due to lack of talent. He is in a crowded receiver situation with Sanu, Hawkins, and Gresham competing for the leftovers in Cincy. It seems that Dalton only has eyes for A J Green.

 

I'd watch this one and be ready to make a pick-up as soon as we know who will emerge. But as long as they continue to force-feed Green, I wouldn't expect better than flex value out to the position.

[mobb_deep 917]

Great work as usual Bill. I'm a little higher on Ball, Bell and Michaels than you are this year and a little lower on a couple others. I have not gone through as much tape to date as you have though, so I might update things a bit here soon.

 

+1

 

I think Ball has much more upside than Gillisie and Graham. Knife Davis seems REALLY low too.

 

Very good work though.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Thanks MAdd. Very quality stuff here.

Got 1 question for you. I've been asking everyone who's scouting this.

 

How much emphasis are you putting on Keenan Allens pro day, along with his draft team?

 

My main Q is. If he shows he's over is injury. He is what he is, he's at where he's at. But, how much would he drop in your rankings, if he has a bad April?

Or, would he not, because his talent is there once he does hit an NFL team at full strengh.

 

On Keenan Allen's re-scheduled Pro Day he posted 40 times of 4.71 and 4.74. IMO Allen will now not be drafted in round 1. In that case, he lost a ton of money by having a Pro Day at all until he was a full 100% back and he knew he could run faster. Better to schedule a few private work-outs just before the draft and let any good news "leak" out. But I'm not his agent.

 

(With the poor 40 clockings, Allen shows only that he is not yet fully recovered, but the fact that it was scheduled at all and he ran good routes, means to me that he is well on his way to full recovery. No matter; there is not a GM that I've ever heard of is who is willing to risk his job by taking a receiver who clocks 4.7s in the 1st round - no matter how good the GM thinks the prospect is.)

 

Here is a great piece of writing by Jeff Legwold of the Denver Post on the subject of this year's whole QR class. It kind of sums up my current feeling on the class as a whole:

 

Keenan Allen's workout did little to answer NFL draft's questions at WR

POSTED: 04/10/2013 12:01:00 AM MDT

UPDATED: 04/10/2013 11:27:04 AM MDTBy Jeff Legwold

The Denver Post

Read more: Keenan Allen's workout did little to answer NFL draft's questions at WR - The Denver Post http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_22991257/keenan-allens-workout-did-little-answer-drafts-questions#ixzz2QCICy61c

 

It's time to trot out the "Lost in Space" robot. (Please, Google it if you're not 40-something or beyond.) It waves those vacuum-cleaner hoses for arms shouting "danger, danger" to any and all teams tinkering with the idea of using a first-round pick on a wide receiver.

It is one of the best observations ever made about the uncertain business of personnel evaluation in football, so it bears repeating now. Former Packers general manager Ron Wolf, who has seen a thing or 12 million, said more mistakes are made on wide receivers in the first round of the draft than at any other position. By first-round mistakes, he meant impact, both immediate and down the road.

In this salary cap era, when free agency arrives after the fourth season for a first-round pick, a "mistake" could be a player who doesn't perform to that draft status in his career or one who takes time to get there, and is possibly groomed for another team to enjoy.

This is the 27th draft for which I have tried to break down film, Beta or digital video, and there is no question I struggle with wide receivers more than any other position — almost more so each year.

I know what I like. I like toughness, speed and good hands. Well, duh, who doesn't? And if they all looked and played like Calvin Johnson, hey, no muss, no fuss.

I like to see a guy track the ball over his shoulder, make out-of-frame catches, turn bad throws into big plays. I like good routes, on which the player drops his hips, keeps his feet under him and maintains his speed in and out of the breaks.

Most years it's difficult to stack the wide receivers anyway, but this year presents more challenges than most.

The answers didn't get any clearer Tuesday when one of the top receivers on the board, Cal's Keenan Allen, ran 40-yard dashes, according to a scout on hand in Greensboro, N.C. (Allen's hometown), at 4.71 and 4.74 seconds — not first-round speed for a receiver.

Allen, who missed the last three games of the regular season with damage to the posterior cruciate ligament in his left knee, did not work out at the combine or at Cal's pro day. He certainly plays faster than he ran Tuesday. He finished his career as the school's all-time leader in receptions (205) and was third in school history in receiving yards (2,570).

But that speed number will concern some teams, and Allen joins a class full of receivers who all seem to be "like them or hate them" players for teams, with almost no middle ground or consensus to be found.

Even the guy at the position likely to make the most impact as a rookie will disappoint a team that isn't prepared with a plan on how to use him. That is West Virginia's Tavon Austin, who at 5-foot-8½, 174 pounds is one of the smallest players on the board.

Tennessee's Cordarrelle Patterson played one season in NCAA Division I and carries plenty of questions about his maturity and work ethic. He has draw-it-up measurables for a wide receiver, at 6-2, 216 pounds with 4.33-second speed and elusiveness with the ball in his hands.

Quinton Patton had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons at Louisiana Tech. Yet many scouts wouldn't pick him earlier than the second round because the biggest adjustment a young receiver has to make in the NFL is the physical play of the league's cornerbacks. Patton doesn't always perform well when his play on the ball is contested.

Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Tech's Da'Rick Rogers, Baylor's Terrance Williams and Oregon State's Markus Wheaton, are all interesting, all with questions.

And once again, the position comes with the warning label of draft history attached. Because when it comes to wideouts in the first round, the league has been on shaky ground for quite some time.

 

Read more: Keenan Allen's workout did little to answer NFL draft's questions at WR - The Denver Post http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_22991257/keenan-allens-workout-did-little-answer-drafts-questions#ixzz2QCIlR3RW

Read The Denver Post's Terms of Use of its content: http://www.denverpost.com/termsofuse

Follow us: @Denverpost on Twitter | Denverpost on Facebook

[Voltaire 4,560]

mfd, do you remember Nick Toon from Wisconsin last year? He spent 2012 on IR for the Saints. Any insights?

[Kopy 491]

mfd, do you remember Nick Toon from Wisconsin last year? He spent 2012 on IR for the Saints. Any insights?

 

I didn't even have him on my draft board last year.

Yes the talent is there, but just way too brittle for my liking.

[madd futher mucker 36]

mfd, do you remember Nick Toon from Wisconsin last year? He spent 2012 on IR for the Saints. Any insights?

 

Like Kopy, he did not end up on my final wide receiver evaluation list last year. This is what I Posted 23 February 2012 - 10:55 PM:

"Toon: I like his size and he has great hands, but he severely lacks quicks and because he is slow into and out of his breaks, his route running is less than you would expect. His NFL ceiling is very low IMO. He's a build up speed guy who can't create in the open field. In addition, he has had recurring foot problems (as well as other medical issues). I happen to be a UW grad who watched both him and his dad play at Wisconsin - back in the day. BTW, his dad was the better athlete!"

 

The wide receiver I like this year in NO to break out is Joseph Morgan.

[Kopy 491]

Per rotoworld. And only in the very early stages of this story, but:

"Cal WR Keenan Allen was red-flagged for a drug test at February's Combine.Allen's rocky run-up to the draft continues. Concerns about a slow recovery stemming from an October knee injury coupled with forty times of 4.71 and 4.75 have his first-round status on shaky ground. Allen took another drug test this month, the results of which are unknown. For what it's worth, his agent is denying that Allen ever failed a drug test. "

 

Holy moly. What the heck is going on here?

 

[madd futher mucker 36]

Per rotoworld. And only in the very early stages of this story, but:

"Cal WR Keenan Allen was red-flagged for a drug test at February's Combine.Allen's rocky run-up to the draft continues. Concerns about a slow recovery stemming from an October knee injury coupled with forty times of 4.71 and 4.75 have his first-round status on shaky ground. Allen took another drug test this month, the results of which are unknown. For what it's worth, his agent is denying that Allen ever failed a drug test. "

 

Holy moly. What the heck is going on here?

 

 

He did not 'fail' a drug test. he had "suspiciously high levels of fluid (fluid retention) in his system. Could easily be the result of therapeudic meds for his ankle - or a marker for temporary use of PEDs to aid in the healing process, where the PEDs were discontinued but the fluid marker still existed. I don't think this will affect his draft stock as he is facing a re-test shortly. Having a heart condition, I know that body fluid levels can fluctuate greatly. So I'm not too worried about the affect of his current news on his draft stock.

 

However he has dropped from my rankings a little bit - still in tier two but lower - mainly because of a sophisticated tool a friend of mine (not Matt Waldman) uses for hidden red flags - things like body mass index, performance index and athletecism upside measures that are rough predictors of NFL success. So it is safe to say that he is not my #3 receiver on my board at this time.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Per rotoworld. And only in the very early stages of this story, but:

"Cal WR Keenan Allen was red-flagged for a drug test at February's Combine.Allen's rocky run-up to the draft continues. Concerns about a slow recovery stemming from an October knee injury coupled with forty times of 4.71 and 4.75 have his first-round status on shaky ground. Allen took another drug test this month, the results of which are unknown. For what it's worth, his agent is denying that Allen ever failed a drug test. "

 

Holy moly. What the heck is going on here?

 

 

He did not 'fail' a drug test. He had "suspiciously" high levels of fluid (fluid retention) in his system. Could easily be the result of therapeudic meds for his ankle - or a marker for temporary use of PEDs to aid in the healing process, where the PEDs were discontinued but the fluid marker still existed. I don't think this will affect his draft stock, only that he will be facing a re-test shortly. Having a heart condition, I know that body fluid levels can fluctuate greatly fo many reasons. So I'm not too worried about the affect of this current news on his draft stock.

 

However he has dropped from my rankings a little bit - still in tier two but lower - mainly because of a sophisticated tool a friend of mine (not Matt Waldman) uses for hidden red flags - things like body mass index, performance index and athletecism upside measures that are somewhat rough predictors of NFL success. So it is safe to say that he is not my #3 receiver on my board at this time.