The 2013 Dynasty Top 10's

[420allstars 13]

Just for fun I would love to get a general list together of everyones top 10 Dynasty asset's at each of the skill positions. I wont go first as I dont want to sway the votes but would be glad to figure out the ranks when its all done.

[420allstars 13]

cut and paste from cbfalcon

 

Just put together quickly. May be forgetting someone.

 

QB:

1. Rodgers (clear as day without a doubt #1)

2. Luck (I think he is safer than Griffin)

3. RG3

4. Brees (Still has 3-5 years left)

5. Brady

6. Stafford

 

RB:

1. Richardson (21 years old. Younger than everyone else by 3 years)

2. Rice (only 25 years old)

3. Martin (24 years old)

4. Peterson (He is 27, but I think he may threaten the records)

5. Morris (24 yo)

6. Spiller (25 years old)

7. Charles (26 yo)

8. Foster (26 y0)

9. Lynch (26 yo, his running style scars me)

 

WR:

1. Megatron (Easy. at age 27, he will be top 5 for 8 more years)

2. AJ Green (In theory, he will make a big jump this next season)

3. Julio Jones

4. Dez

5. Marshall

6. D. Thomas

7. Crabtree (He is only 25 years old)

8. Cobb (I need to see more to go higher)

9. Harvin

10. Decker

[420allstars 13]

cut and paste from my old pal Lesjroza

12 teams PPR assumed

 

QB

Rodgers

 

Luck

RGII

Brees

Brady

 

Ryan

Stafford

Newton

 

Next tier large move up Brees Brady to the top of tier and P. Manning to 3rd in some cases

 

RB

 

A.P

Foster

Rice

 

Martin

TRich

McCoy

 

 

 

Charles

Spiller

Lynch

Forte Let's see what happens with Lynch's offseason, there is still ???s about DUI case, punishment, if suspended could be on last strike?

 

WR

 

Calvin

 

AJ Green

 

Julio

Dez

Percy

D. Thomas

B. Marsh

 

Next tier pretty big , not ready to put Cobb above but though about it.

 

TE

 

Gronk

 

Graham

 

Hernandez

 

I am willing to let others figure out the rest both figuratively here and literally in my leagues. In the 2 shallower dynasty leagues I am in with 17 roster slots I have literally played matchups with my TEs picking up and dropping TEs all year long and playing the strong matchups and trends which have been fairly predictable because some teams are so bad against the TE.

I lost just a little bit of points from that slot to Gronk and Graham last year and have actually gained a point advantage on EVERY other team throughout this year with that tactic.

In the 24 slot TE premium league this tactic is not an option, but even there, I don't think I know enough to be able to differentiate significntlym from the next group of TEs which will outproduce over the course of the year. If you say you can, I will give you a nod politely disagree because I don't think it is my lack of knowledge, I just think these guys phase in and out of their respective Os throughout the year. The good TEs take a beating more than any other position facing DL, LBs,and launching safties and then play with injuries but become relegated to the 4th receiving option on the team until they are healthy again which may not even be in that year. Anyway, I will use my firepower elsewhere generally but young TEs I think are worth holding or aquiring at the right price would be Rudolph and D. Allen.

[420allstars 13]

Cut and paste from stewburtx

 

This was done really quickly. I do not currently play in a dynasty league so I haven't put a ton of thought in to this. But this would be my very rough rankings that I would open for discussion. Personally, I agree with White Wonder that I don't tend to value age as much. I am usually looking at a 2-3 year "window" of production and will use long term value to break ties most of the time. I do think the QB position is the hardest to rank. I'd still rather Brees/Brady for the next 3-5 years over Luck, but you may get another 10 years out of Luck. I could argue ranking those 3 in any order. RG3 is hard to rank due to the injuries he is suffering already. Has the ceiling to be #1 but obviously has a lot of risk associated with him I think. I also struggled with the RB rankings from #3 through #8 or so. Very interchangeable in my opinion based on personal preference. This is based on PPR:

 

QB- Rodgers, Newton, Luck, Brees, Brady, Griffin, Peyton, Wilson, Ryan, Stafford

 

RB- Peterson, Foster, Martin, Rice, Charles, Spiller, McCoy, Richardson, Lynch, A.Morris

 

WR- Calvin, AJ Green, Marshall, Bryant, D.Thomas, J.Jones, Harvin, A.Johnson, Cobb, R.White

 

TE- Gronk, Graham, Hernandez, Witten, Gresham/Myers/Olsen/Daniels?

[Stewburtx8 67]

Cam Newton seems low to me on the first two lists. I could see putting him 5th or 6th but any lower seems kind of crazy. He's 23 years old and has finished as the #4 scoring fantasy QB each of his first two seasons behind Rodgers, Brees, and Brady.

[cbfalcon 824]

Cam Newton seems low to me on the first two lists. I could see putting him 5th or 6th but any lower seems kind of crazy. He's 23 years old and has finished as the #4 scoring fantasy QB each of his first two seasons behind Rodgers, Brees, and Brady.

 

I put him right there with Stafford at 6 or 7. Admittedly, I expected him to stink this season. But he impressed me.

[lesjroza 70]

Cam Newton seems low to me on the first two lists. I could see putting him 5th or 6th but any lower seems kind of crazy. He's 23 years old and has finished as the #4 scoring fantasy QB each of his first two seasons behind Rodgers, Brees, and Brady.

 

I would not vehemently argue with anyone having him higher in the tier in which I place Ryan, and Stafford. It is a tier 6-8 so we would be splitting hairs to argue and this is a personal ranking, to each his own.

 

I will tell you that I personally place him a bit lower for the following, none of which is talent and all of which are taking dynasty (do I want to own this guy for the next 8-10 years) into account.

 

Carolina does not seem to be quite as commited to building everything around Cam, or at least as organized about it, to the extent Indy does with Luck or Wash does with RGIII. They say they are all in on him but they have a D minded HC, still, and have allocated a large portion of their payroll to the RBs, my guess is they will prioritize draft picks on D this year rather than O.

 

I also do not care for Cam's attitude and leadership style and he has reminded me, at times, of Culpepper who was also a freakishly talented athlete that had some amazingly successful statistical years but flamed out when it was found that he the overall package was not conducive to winning in the NFL (I'm not saying this will happen with Cam, just considering that small possibility as a risk factor until he wins some playoff games). Carolina does not have a Calvin, Roddy or J.J. type WR and S. Smith grows older by the day.

 

Before anybody throws lots of hate my way for dissing Cam you have to go back and look at my rank which is in the 6-8 tier, so again we are splitting hairs on the rank to some extent and in a redraft I would be happy to overlook many of these factors because the guy puts up numbers.

[kmbryant09 1]

QB's:

1. Aaron Rodgers - No brainer. Argaubly the #1 QB in the game today, and still should play 5+ years at an elite level.

2. Cam Newton - The best combination of production, youth, and upside.

3. Drew Brees - Should be a top5 QB for the next 2-3 years, and a top10 QB for another 2-3 years after that.

4. Andrew Luck - Should be a stud when the O-Line gets shored up.

5. Matt Ryan - May not have the upside as a guy like Rodgers, Luck, or Newton, but should be a steady top7 QB who will be entering his prime.

Honorable Mention: Robert Griffin III - Could arguably #1 on this list if healthy; but we are figuring out that is a big IF.

 

RB's:

1. Adrian Peterson - RB's have such a short life span that there will be TONS of turnover each year. Give me the #1 RB for the next few years.

2. Jamaal Charles - I love his potential with Andy Reid. Was under utilized with the last coaching regime; that shouldn't be a problem under Reid.

3. Doug Martin - I want to see more consistency out of him, but his O-Line will be even better next year.

4. C.J. Spiller - Similar situation with Charles. Gotta love his potential as a true #1 RB. Put up 1,700 yards and 8 TD's in a limited role.

5. Trent Richardson - I'll attribute his low ypc to a slew of injuries. One of the better bets for 350+ touches a season over the next 4-5 years.

Honorable Mention: Alfred Morris - He's definitely more than a product of that system; but I always worry about Shanahan RB's. Plus, how much of his production is tied to a healthy RG3?

 

WR's:

1. Calvin Johnson - Enough said.

2. Julio Jones - Not only will he continue to get better, but he'll become the focal point of that offense as Gonzo retires, and Turner/Roddy decline with age.

3. Demaryius Thomas - Is an absolute beast with PM in Denver. Will continue to get better and will continue to sync up with one of the greatest QB's of all-time.

4. A.J. Green - Some may have him higher, and it's hard to argue; but I just don't love his QB situation. Averaged only 1.5 points per target compared to 1.74 for both D.T. and Julio. I don't think he'll see another 164 targets next year with Marvin/Sanu/Dawkins and Gresham's development. Still a stud though.

5. Randall Cobb - A bigger, more durable Percy Harvin. Averaged 1.87 ppt and his totals should benefit from Jenning's expected departure.

Honorable Mention: Victor Cruz - Really tailed off at the end of the season, probably because of Nicks' injury and Eli's dead arm. I think the first half of 2012 (52/650/7) is more telling than the second half (34/442/3).

 

TE's:

1. Jimmy Graham - Led all TE's in production despite a down season. Look for a bounce-back season with Payton's return.

2. Rob Gronkowski - Is averaging .88 TD's per game in his career which projects to 14 per season. Only question is durability.

3. Aaron Hernandez - Is a matchup nightmare and Brady loves utilizing him.

 

Honorable Mentions

Jermaine Gresham - Seems to be Dalton's #2 option.

Tyler Eifert (Notre Dame TE) - I've only watched limited tape of him, but he looks like he could be the next Gronk (at least catching the ball).

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

ok so I said I would get to this when i got home from work. again, i expect to be questioned regarding my relative lack of concern over a players age. As i've discussed a lot with MFM, if you were drafting a dynasty team this year and planning to not manage it at all for the next 5-10 years, then you might want to put extra emphasis on drafting young. But I find that most dynasty and hardcore FF players like to manage their teams and trade a lot. So I'm not going to really drop guys like Brees down too much just because he might only have 4-5 years left. You should always be looking to "win now" in FF... in my opinion.

 

As an owner, you can get 2-3 years of elite production and then trade them away to a team that needs that one key piece to put them over the hump. No, you're not going to get full value, but you'll get something.... and chances are in the 3-4 years you owned Brees, you likely identified a solid young QB via rookie drafts, free agency, other trades, etc etc. Impact players pop up all the time. There is no reason to plan too far ahead.

 

At RB, I will consider age a little more because the shelf life is less but QB, WR and TE can all play productively into their mid to even late 30's.

 

QB

Rodgers

Brees

Brady

Luck

Ryan

Cam Newton

RG3

Stafford

Peyton Manning

Tony Romo

Eli Manning

 

* I ahve RG3 this low because the injury stuff just scares me and I do not think he is yearly top 5 without his running ability. If all is right heading into next season then I would move him up but likely try to move him after 3-4 years MAX.

 

* Yes, Peyton Manning. I think he will play at an elite level for the next 2 seasons behind that line and with those weapons. You might not get anything back for him but im good ranking him 9th if you're trying to win now.

 

* Eli and Romo I view similarly. at 32, they have 4 more years of production and both have good weapons in the passing game. I don't see any young QB outside of maybe Dalton who has the upside to pass what these guys will do in the next 2-3 seasons.

 

 

RB

Arian Foster

Adrian Peterson

CJ Spiller

Ray Rice

Trent Richardson

Doug Martin

Jamaal Charles

LeSean McCoy

alfred morris

Marshawn Lynch

 

*can't believe that at 26 years old, Foster is being mentioned after Charles and Spiller and even Rice. It's like they don't realize these guys are all 25 and 26 themselves.

 

*speaking of which, Lynch is only 26, in a great situation and I am tempted to put him higher because I know what to expect with him but I know he has back issues. Otherwise, i'd probably prefer him over the less proven guys like Martin morris and injury prone t-rich

 

 

WR

Calvin

Marshall

Julio

AJ Green

Dez

Welker

D Thomas

Cobb

Andre Johnson

Roddy white

 

* I have no issue including 31 year old WR's like Welker, AJ and Roddy as long as they remain focal points in their offenses and their team/qb remains the same. I'd rather draft 3 years of production out of these guys than draft justin blackmon and hope Jax gets a good QB. With how often WR's pop up out of nowhere, I really don't think your team will be hurting when Wes Welker's game begins to slip.

 

*i think Cobb will replace Jennings as Rodgers favorite target. Rodgers love this kid.

 

 

TE

So many good young TE's

 

Gronk

Graham

 

Hernandez

Pitta

Witten

Gresham

Rudolph

[The Next Generation 10]

My Dynasty League is a 10-team PPR w/salary cap.

 

QBs:

1. Rodgers

2. Newton

3. Brees

4. Luck

5. RGIII

6. Brady

7. Ryan

8. Stafford

9. Dalton

10. P. Manning

 

RBs:

1. Foster

2. Peterson

3. Spiller

4. Charles

5. Martin

6. Richardson

7. McCoy

8. Morris

9. Johnson

10. Lynch

 

WRs:

1. Megatron

2. AJ Green

3. D Bryant

4. J Jones

5. D Thomas

6. P Harvin

7. V Cruz

8. B Marsh

9. R Cobb

10. W Welker

 

TEs:

1. Gronk

2. J Graham

3. Hernandez

4. Witten

5. Olson

6. Pitta

7. Daniels

8. Myers

9. Greshem

10. Davis

[Stewburtx8 67]

I would not vehemently argue with anyone having him higher in the tier in which I place Ryan, and Stafford. It is a tier 6-8 so we would be splitting hairs to argue and this is a personal ranking, to each his own.

 

I will tell you that I personally place him a bit lower for the following, none of which is talent and all of which are taking dynasty (do I want to own this guy for the next 8-10 years) into account.

 

Carolina does not seem to be quite as commited to building everything around Cam, or at least as organized about it, to the extent Indy does with Luck or Wash does with RGIII. They say they are all in on him but they have a D minded HC, still, and have allocated a large portion of their payroll to the RBs, my guess is they will prioritize draft picks on D this year rather than O.

 

I also do not care for Cam's attitude and leadership style and he has reminded me, at times, of Culpepper who was also a freakishly talented athlete that had some amazingly successful statistical years but flamed out when it was found that he the overall package was not conducive to winning in the NFL (I'm not saying this will happen with Cam, just considering that small possibility as a risk factor until he wins some playoff games). Carolina does not have a Calvin, Roddy or J.J. type WR and S. Smith grows older by the day.

 

Before anybody throws lots of hate my way for dissing Cam you have to go back and look at my rank which is in the 6-8 tier, so again we are splitting hairs on the rank to some extent and in a redraft I would be happy to overlook many of these factors because the guy puts up numbers.

 

 

I wasn't trying to throw any "hate" your way. I mainly was pointing out the one thing that stood out to me when comparing my list to both yours and cbfalcon. Otherwise our lists are very similar. I shouldn't have said it's "crazy" to rank Newton outside the top 5 or 6, it just surprised me. Newton's ceiling is #1 fantasy QB year after year in my opinion. When comparing him to someone like RG3, they both have similar styles running the read option. They both get hit a lot. I just feel better about the guy who is 30 lbs heavier and hasn't already had one reconstructive knee surgery (and may need a 2nd). Obviously that's easier to say now that it looks like Griffin has a partially torn ACL and LCL.

[cbfalcon 824]

ok so I said I would get to this when i got home from work. again, i expect to be questioned regarding my relative lack of concern over a players age. As i've discussed a lot with MFM, if you were drafting a dynasty team this year and planning to not manage it at all for the next 5-10 years, then you might want to put extra emphasis on drafting young. But I find that most dynasty and hardcore FF players like to manage their teams and trade a lot. So I'm not going to really drop guys like Brees down too much just because he might only have 4-5 years left. You should always be looking to "win now" in FF... in my opinion.

 

As an owner, you can get 2-3 years of elite production and then trade them away to a team that needs that one key piece to put them over the hump. No, you're not going to get full value, but you'll get something.... and chances are in the 3-4 years you owned Brees, you likely identified a solid young QB via rookie drafts, free agency, other trades, etc etc. Impact players pop up all the time. There is no reason to plan too far ahead.

 

At RB, I will consider age a little more because the shelf life is less but QB, WR and TE can all play productively into their mid to even late 30's.

 

 

I almost have the opposite opinion. Age is a big deal when it comes to QB and WR. They can be elite for a decade. Whereas Iook at it less with RBs because their window is so small. All I care about is the next season or 2 at that position at a given time.

 

An example would be in our geek dynasty league. I paid a (seemingly at the time) heavy price before the season to acquire Aaron Rodgers. Now I have Rodgers, Megatron, and AJ Green (Yes I DO realize I am awesome. thank you) With just those 3 guys, give me any 2 serviceable RBs and I feel I am a contender for the next 10 years. Whereas with RBs, 3 years ago the studs were entirely different than they are now. And in 3 years none of those guys will even be starter worthy.

 

Obviously that doesn't mean I would trade Tom Brady away for Andy Dalton. But it does mean I would throw in a couple number 1 picks along with Brady if it meant I could grab Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck (I'm ridiculously high on him).

 

It's all a balancing act. I guess in summary, if you can grab a young stud that is a no brainer every week starter for the next 8 years, that's absolutely something I am willing to overpay for. Super studs that are also young are exponentially more valuable in my opinion. Untouchable even.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

I almost have the opposite opinion. Age is a big deal when it comes to QB and WR. They can be elite for a decade. Whereas Iook at it less with RBs because their window is so small. All I care about is the next season or 2 at that position at a given time.

 

An example would be in our geek dynasty league. I paid a (seemingly at the time) heavy price before the season to acquire Aaron Rodgers. Now I have Rodgers, Megatron, and AJ Green (Yes I DO realize I am awesome. thank you) With just those 3 guys, give me any 2 serviceable RBs and I feel I am a contender for the next 10 years. Whereas with RBs, 3 years ago the studs were entirely different than they are now. And in 3 years none of those guys will even be starter worthy.

 

Obviously that doesn't mean I would trade Tom Brady away for Andy Dalton. But it does mean I would throw in a couple number 1 picks along with Brady if it meant I could grab Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck (I'm ridiculously high on him).

 

It's all a balancing act. I guess in summary, if you can grab a young stud that is a no brainer every week starter for the next 8 years, that's absolutely something I am willing to overpay for. Super studs that are also young are exponentially more valuable in my opinion. Untouchable even.

 

i don't believe we disagree much at all. my point in not overvaluing age is to say that i'm not going to draft Andrew Luck over Aaron rodgers because Luck is 6 years younger. I don't need to think 6+ years down the road in my initial draft. I'm always trying to win. I can win with Rodgers for 2 years and flip him while his value is still high. Or I can ride him for as long as he is elite and by then, I've probably rostered the next Colin Kaepernick anyway. I feel the same with Brees over Luck.

 

now i do weigh age more heavily into the equation at RB because you don't really want to be drafting a 31 year old RB. BUT, that said, dynasty ranking for RB are not vastly different than redraft rankings. All the top guys are 27 MAX anyway.

 

As for your example, thats an extreme luxury to have Calvin, AJ and Rodgers.... what many might consider the top QB and top 2 WR's in fantasy heading into next year. Though I would argue you still need a solid run game. You probably don't want to rely on Steven Jackson. And i'm assuming you did not win the title this year. Who were your RB's?

[cbfalcon 824]

i don't believe we disagree much at all. my point in not overvaluing age is to say that i'm not going to draft Andrew Luck over Aaron rodgers because Luck is 6 years younger. I don't need to think 6+ years down the road in my initial draft. I'm always trying to win. I can win with Rodgers for 2 years and flip him while his value is still high. Or I can ride him for as long as he is elite and by then, I've probably rostered the next Colin Kaepernick anyway. I feel the same with Brees over Luck.

 

now i do weigh age more heavily into the equation at RB because you don't really want to be drafting a 31 year old RB. BUT, that said, dynasty ranking for RB are not vastly different than redraft rankings. All the top guys are 27 MAX anyway.

 

As for your example, thats an extreme luxury to have Calvin, AJ and Rodgers.... what many might consider the top QB and top 2 WR's in fantasy heading into next year. Though I would argue you still need a solid run game. You probably don't want to rely on Steven Jackson. And i'm assuming you did not win the title this year. Who were your RB's?

 

Yeah we mostly agree.

 

And of course I won the title. Thanks for asking my RBs were Charles and Murray. Obviously I am high on Charles and consider RBs important. But my philosophy is that RBs are for the most part a year to year proposition. I won't be looking much further than this upcoming season and maybe the next at that position. Whereas with QB and WR, I will be patient and think about the next 5+ years before making any moves.

 

For this reason also, I am developing a strategy of valuing QBs and WRs more in general. In that if I were creating an overall dynasty draft rankings, there would be far fewer RBs in the first round than there would be in redraft rankings.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

Yeah we mostly agree.

 

And of course I won the title. Thanks for asking my RBs were Charles and Murray. Obviously I am high on Charles and consider RBs important. But my philosophy is that RBs are for the most part a year to year proposition. I won't be looking much further than this upcoming season and maybe the next at that position. Whereas with QB and WR, I will be patient and think about the next 5+ years before making any moves.

 

For this reason also, I am developing a strategy of valuing QBs and WRs more in general. In that if I were creating an overall dynasty draft rankings, there would be far fewer RBs in the first round than there would be in redraft rankings.

 

congrats! i must have been thinking of a different league... that dynasty start up i kept reading about on this board.

[420allstars 13]

Ok my turn.. I am sort of in the middle of a couple opinions, I place some premium on age as I see players like comedies that inevitably will lose valve with age and at some point you will need to flip these guys. I hate to get caught selling short on anything if I can avoid it and other league members opinions on age relative to value is important to me, maybe too much? That said on every good team I find there has to be a mix of seasoned and reliable vets to go with the high upside young guys..

 

Anyways here’s my list.. appreciate all the feedback on this thread and it looks like we’re going to come away with a pretty solid list!

 

QB’s

 

1: Rodgers

2: Brady

3: Breese (the big three are the big three redraft or Dynasty)

4: Luck

5: Cam

7: Peyton Manning

8: RG3 (playing style scares me)

9: Ryan

10: Stafford

 

WR’s

 

1: Mega

2: AJ Green

3: Julio

4: Percy Harvin

5: Dez (could be number one on my list this time next year)

6: D Thomas

7: Cobb

8: Marshall

9: Cruz

10: Nicks (could be number 30 on my list next year at this time but I still believe)

 

RB’s

 

1: Foster

2: Peterson

3: Rice

4: Martin

5: T-rich

6: McCoy

7: Spiller

8: Charles

9: Lynch

10: Morris (Shanny freaks me out)

 

TE’s

 

1: Gronk

2: Graham

3: Hernandez

4: Witten

5: Olson

6: Rudolph

7: Daniels

8. Vernon Davis (still has a shot?)

9. Greshem

10: Finley (maybe blind hope as I own him all over the place)

[Evil Genius 0]

 

 

TE’s

 

1: Gronk

2: Graham

3: Hernandez

4: Witten

5: Olson

6: Rudolph

7: Daniels

8. Vernon Davis (still has a shot?)

9. Greshem

10: Finley (maybe blind hope as I own him all over the place)

 

Comments:

 

1: Gronk - clearly one of the top two

2: Graham - I see a much stronger year for him in 2013. Probably #1

3: Hernandez - a strong #3, agreed, especially in PPR

 

Here's where it gets murky

 

Witten: can he put up these kinds of numbers again? If so, he could break the top three. He needs a few more TDs.

 

Olsen: He will be startable. I have absolutely no grasp of his floor or ceiling.

 

Rudolph: I just think his top range is low because of Minny's offense and Ponder

 

Daniels: I really like this guy. If I pass on the top TEs, I would target this guy as a solid, startable TE with upside in 2013.

 

Vernon: One of two great mysteries in the top 10. Why, oh why, is this guy not used more in the San Fran offense? There has been much conjecture. I would have thought that Kap would have put this guy back on the map. For one week, he did. And then, POOF. He's a physical beast, with good hands. Why not use him? He could be Top 5 if the Worm turns in San Fran. If it doens't, he's a huge waste.

 

Gresham: He will continue to be nice. Not thrilling, but nice.

 

Finley: The other great enigma. This guy must be a head case. They consistantly tried to create mismatches for this dude and he just keeps dropping the ball. Yet, his talent is seemingly immense. If he is done in Green Bay, then where does he go? And if so, then what kind of play does he get in a new system with a different QB?

[lesjroza 70]

Comments:

 

1: Gronk - clearly one of the top two

2: Graham - I see a much stronger year for him in 2013. Probably #1

3: Hernandez - a strong #3, agreed, especially in PPR

 

Here's where it gets murky

 

Witten: can he put up these kinds of numbers again? If so, he could break the top three. He needs a few more TDs.

 

Olsen: He will be startable. I have absolutely no grasp of his floor or ceiling.

 

Rudolph: I just think his top range is low because of Minny's offense and Ponder

 

Daniels: I really like this guy. If I pass on the top TEs, I would target this guy as a solid, startable TE with upside in 2013.

 

Vernon: One of two great mysteries in the top 10. Why, oh why, is this guy not used more in the San Fran offense? There has been much conjecture. I would have thought that Kap would have put this guy back on the map. For one week, he did. And then, POOF. He's a physical beast, with good hands. Why not use him? He could be Top 5 if the Worm turns in San Fran. If it doens't, he's a huge waste.

 

Gresham: He will continue to be nice. Not thrilling, but nice.

 

Finley: The other great enigma. This guy must be a head case. They consistantly tried to create mismatches for this dude and he just keeps dropping the ball. Yet, his talent is seemingly immense. If he is done in Green Bay, then where does he go? And if so, then what kind of play does he get in a new system with a different QB?

 

 

I am 100% on board with all that you have said Genius! Especially the murky after the top 3 comment. By the way there is a trade for you to approve when you get the chance.

[420allstars 13]

I am 100% on board with all that you have said Genius! Especially the murky after the top 3 comment. By the way there is a trade for you to approve when you get the chance.

 

I'll be honest when I say TE is the toughest list by a long shot and anyone other then the big three could be swapped in and out with no second guessing by me!

[lesjroza 70]

I wasn't trying to throw any "hate" your way. I mainly was pointing out the one thing that stood out to me when comparing my list to both yours and cbfalcon. Otherwise our lists are very similar. I shouldn't have said it's "crazy" to rank Newton outside the top 5 or 6, it just surprised me. Newton's ceiling is #1 fantasy QB year after year in my opinion. When comparing him to someone like RG3, they both have similar styles running the read option. They both get hit a lot. I just feel better about the guy who is 30 lbs heavier and hasn't already had one reconstructive knee surgery (and may need a 2nd). Obviously that's easier to say now that it looks like Griffin has a partially torn ACL and LCL.

 

 

I wasn't directing the hate comment to what you had written Stew though I can see where you could take it that way. I find your comments to be respectful, well thought, and generally read as much more considerate than mine. I was actually trying to fend off some expected future backlash for the reasons I listed for ranking Cam lower than the QBs I have above him.

I know that if one read my list without looking at where I rank him, it kind of sounds like I think he is a bum but it's just a list of minor risk factors that justify my placing the others above him in my mind despite his #s so far which agrue for him being higher on the list.

[GobbleDog 816]

At the beginning of the season, I had no idea which 2 RBs I'd end up keeping for 2013.

 

Forte, Mathews, Spiller, T Richardson.

 

I've had Forte and Mathews for the past few years, but it's obvious now they won't be kept next year. I'm especially disappointed Mathews never panned out. Seemed like a great keeper pick back when he was a rookie.

[kmbryant09 1]

I listed my top 5 at each position already, but I'll try and expand it to 10...Some rankings may have changed. So what.

QB's:

1. Aaron Rodgers - No brainer. Argaubly the #1 QB in the game today, and still should play 5+ years at an elite level.

2. Cam Newton - The best combination of production, youth, and upside.

3. Colin Kaepernick - After watching him in the playoffs, I may be tempted to place him #1 on this list. Seriously. He's a faster Cam Newton, a bigger RG3, and can legitimately throw the ball with great accuracy.

4. Drew Brees - Should be a top5 QB for the next 3-4 years, and a top10 QB for another 2-3 years after that.

5. Andrew Luck - Should be a stud when the O-Line gets shored up and when his weapons (Hilton, Fleener, Allen).

6. Matt Ryan - May not have the upside as a guy like Rodgers, Luck, or Newton, but should be a steady top7 QB who will be entering his prime.

7. Robert Griffin III - Could arguably #1 on this list if healthy; but we are figuring out that is a big IF.

8. Russel Wilson - He has proven that height will not effect his ability in the NFL. Won't run as many designed-runs, but extends plays and should near 500-700 rush yards and 5-8 scores per year.

9. Peyton Manning - Showed this year that he's past his neck injury. His arm might be even better next year, and his chemistry with his WR's certainly will be. Could have another 3-4 years of elite status.

10. Tom Brady - Should be elite for another few years. Welker's future, Gronk/Hernandez' injury concerns could lead to a sooner-than-expected decline.

 

RB's:

1. Adrian Peterson - RB's have such a short life span that there will be TONS of turnover each year. Give me the #1 RB for the next few years.

2. Jamaal Charles - I love his potential with Andy Reid. Was under utilized with the last coaching regime; that shouldn't be a problem under Reid.

3. Doug Martin - I want to see more consistency out of him, but his O-Line will be even better next year.

4. C.J. Spiller - Similar situation with Charles. Gotta love his potential as a true #1 RB. Put up 1,700 yards and 8 TD's in a limited role.

5. Arian Foster - Should be a top5 RB for the next 2 seasons, but he's starting to rack the mileage. 1,243 touches (414 per season) over the past 3 seasons!

6. Trent Richardson - I'll attribute his low ypc to a slew of injuries. One of the better bets for 350+ touches a season over the next 4-5 years.

7. LeSean McCoy - I fully expect him to bounce back in 2013, and Chip Kelly's arrival could mean big things for McCoy.

8. Ray Rice - I'm not crazy about Rice's dynasty outlook for a few reasons. I actually think Bernard Pierce is a better "pure runner" than Rice. I also think the total touches will catch up to him before he turns 30.

9. Alfred Morris - He's definitely more than a product of that system; but I always worry about Shanahan RB's. Plus, how much of his production is tied to a healthy RG3?

10. Marshawn Lynch - Seems to have figured out the NFL with back-to-back impressive seasons after a slow start to his career. But I keep him this low because his running style makes him more susceptible to injuries/decline.

 

 

 

WR's:

1. Calvin Johnson - Enough said.

2. Julio Jones - Not only will he continue to get better, but he'll become the focal point of that offense as Gonzo retires, and Turner/Roddy decline with age.

3. Demaryius Thomas - Is an absolute beast with PM in Denver. Will continue to get better and will continue to sync up with one of the greatest QB's of all-time.

4. A.J. Green - Some may have him higher, and it's hard to argue; but I just don't love his QB situation. Averaged only 1.5 points per target compared to 1.74 for both D.T. and Julio. I don't think he'll see another 164 targets next year with Marvin/Sanu/Dawkins and Gresham's development. Still a stud though.

5. Randall Cobb - A bigger, more durable Percy Harvin. Averaged 1.87 ppt and his totals should benefit from Jenning's expected departure.

6. Dez Bryant - If he keeps his head on straight, he could be Calvin's biggest threat as best WR in the NFL. But it's hard to trust his half-season of work against his other 2.5 seasons of inconsistency.

7. Brandon Marshall - Hard to see him getting 194 targets again next season, and has only had 2 seasons with more than 7 TD's.

8. Percy Harvin - Was an absolute monster when healthy, but not extremely durable. Definitely want to monitor his contract situation though. Despite Minny's bad offense, they always made Harvin a focal point.

9. Victor Cruz - Really tailed off at the end of the season, probably because of Nicks' injury and Eli's dead arm. I think the first half of 2012 (52/650/7) is more telling than the second half (34/442/3).

10. Michael Crabtree - The light finally turned on, and apparently all it took was a QB change. I think Kaepernick is here to stay, and so is Crabtree.

 

TE's:

1. Jimmy Graham - Led all TE's in production despite a down season. Look for a bounce-back season with Payton's return.

2. Rob Gronkowski - Is averaging .88 TD's per game in his career which projects to 14 per season. Only question is durability.

3. Aaron Hernandez - Is a matchup nightmare and Brady loves utilizing him.

 

Honorable Mentions (If you don't get one of those 3 TE's, who really cares who you end up with!)

Jermaine Gresham - Seems to be Dalton's #2 option and teams will continue to show A.J. Green more and more attention.

Tyler Eifert (Notre Dame TE) - I've only watched limited tape of him, but he looks like he could be the next Gronk (at least catching the ball).

[ralphster 274]

Ranked as I have them for a catch and release 3 year dynasty

 

QBs:

 

1. Rodgers

2. Brees

3. Brady (probably a little high, I think the Pats are bound for a fall)

4. Ryan

5. Peyton

6. Stafford

7. Newton (the kid has character issues that can't be overcome by talent)

8. Luck

9. Romo

10. Eli, Schaub, Flacco, Dalton, Rothlisberger, Rivers

 

WRs:

 

1. Calvin

2. AJ Green

3. Marshall

4. Julio

5. Dez

6. Harvin

7. Cobb

8. Cruz

9. Andre Johnson

10. Roddy

 

RBs:

 

1. Foster

2. Peterson

3. Rice

4. McCoy

5. Lynch (unless he gets suspended for legal bs)

6. Charles

7. Richardson

8. Martin

9. Spiller

10. Morris/CJ

 

TEs:

 

1. Graham

2. Gronk

3. Hernandez

4. Daniels

5. Witten

6. V Davis

7. Rudolph

8. Olsen

9. Gresham

10. Cook

[lesjroza 70]

"Ranked as I have them for a catch and release 3 year dynasty"

 

Ralphster, I am curious about how values should be adjusted, in your opinion, for the 3 year catch and release dynamic in comparison to a regular dynasty league. I'm not asking about how you would change specific player ranks but what goes into your assesment process generally. No is a perfectly acceptable answer if you rather not divulge for competitive reasons.

[lesjroza 70]

For those who have Peyton Manning as a top 10 dynasty QB: I do not think it was widely reported but I definitely remembering hearing on an NFL telecast that it was widely believed in NFL league circles that if the Broncos had won the SB this year Peyton would have retired for good. When you rank him in the top ten is that something you have not considered, do not think is true, or does not matter to your ranking either way.

 

I'm not trying to convince people he shouldn't be there but it seems like there are alot of risks, he could be one and done from here if he reinjures his neck, plays poorly, or plays so well he wins it all. Just sayin'......

[kilroy69 994]

he already has a sb ring and is now playing to stretch out his career. He has everything he needs in denver and would be stupid to retire if he won and then left a sb winning team and 2 years left on his contract.

[lesjroza 70]

he already has a sb ring and is now playing to stretch out his career. He has everything he needs in denver and would be stupid to retire if he won and then left a sb winning team and 2 years left on his contract.

 

 

Kilroy, So that's one for the "do not think is true" scenario

[kilroy69 994]

not at all. part of the reason he went to denver was the closeness to the gurus that he uses every week. He used to fly these people in at his own expense and credits them for the recovery. I think he feels very comfortable and is surrounded by good talent and a good club thats willing to go the extra mile to make him happy.

[kmbryant09 1]

For those who have Peyton Manning as a top 10 dynasty QB: I do not think it was widely reported but I definitely remembering hearing on an NFL telecast that it was widely believed in NFL league circles that if the Broncos had won the SB this year Peyton would have retired for good. When you rank him in the top ten is that something you have not considered, do not think is true, or does not matter to your ranking either way.

 

I'm not trying to convince people he shouldn't be there but it seems like there are alot of risks, he could be one and done from here if he reinjures his neck, plays poorly, or plays so well he wins it all. Just sayin'......

I'm as big a Peyton Manning fan/follower on this board, and I have not heard a single opinion about him retiring at the end of the season if they won the SB.

 

I have heard a few people mention that he could retire after his 3rd season with Denver (2 more seasons), because there is some sort of out-clause in his contract - based on performance/health, I believe.

 

But based on everything, I cannot see him retiring before that 3-year window. He's still developing chemistry with his WR's, his arm is still regaining strength ( ), he's got a good O-Line to protect him, and a real defense for the first time in his career (although they didn't show up in the playoffs).

 

I don't think he spent 20+ months recovering from a career-threatening, life-altering injury to play 1 season.

[ralphster 274]

"Ranked as I have them for a catch and release 3 year dynasty"

 

Ralphster, I am curious about how values should be adjusted, in your opinion, for the 3 year catch and release dynamic in comparison to a regular dynasty league.

 

Les,

 

I'll share because I think a lot of ff is sheer luck and tenacity. I'm uber competitive, but much like competitive bbq there's only so much your philosophy can control in ff. I highly doubt sharing mine will give you or anyone else an 'edge' mostly because all things are speculative and I might change my mind next June.

 

In the 'Catch and Release FF' league we play in I value players very similarly to White Wonder - as in I don't really put too much stock into age as I feel each player really only has a 2-3 year window of service for my team. Planning too much for the future can tie one's hands. I'd prefer to win now and see how the future plays out instead of trying to stack for two years down the road. No offense to those who do - I see the value in stockpiling draft picks (you and Cory for example). Having multiple picks for next year's draft is great except when next year's draft isn't really offering much in terms of team or league changing potential! Furthermore following college players really isn't my thing. I don't like the college game so I only pay attention to the end of year games and review stats/prognostications heading into the NFL draft. Doing much more makes ff a job and my hobbies are fun because they aren't jobs.

 

Overall when evaluating players in this system I just prefer to concentrate on what I feel is the more known quality; spend your shells mostly on what is working now and save a few for whatever might pop up.

[lesjroza 70]

I'm as big a Peyton Manning fan/follower on this board, and I have not heard a single opinion about him retiring at the end of the season if they won the SB.

 

I have heard a few people mention that he could retire after his 3rd season with Denver (2 more seasons), because there is some sort of out-clause in his contract - based on performance/health, I believe.

 

But based on everything, I cannot see him retiring before that 3-year window. He's still developing chemistry with his WR's, his arm is still regaining strength ( ), he's got a good O-Line to protect him, and a real defense for the first time in his career (although they didn't show up in the playoffs).

 

I don't think he spent 20+ months recovering from a career-threatening, life-altering injury to play 1 season.

 

Does anybody remember watching an NFL telecast where they talked about Manning's retirement as though it was a given if the Boncos won the SB?

Probably a few weeks ago and may have been a playoff game but possibly not the Broncos game.

It was probably the weekend before this Denver Post article for which I doubt idea came out of nowhere.

 

http://www.denverpost.com/recommended/ci_22319209

 

The 3 year contract could be voided at any time and is not a true 3 yr comittment for either side as is the case with many NFL contracts. If you think there is no chance winning the Super Bowl again even if it is 1 yr from now doesn't factor into a 37 yr olds retirement decision I don't have a problem with that, I asked the question to find out what others factor into their ranking and I definitely assume that many do not.

 

 

I'm not arguing that he would in fact retire, I don't know. I am just wondering if others consider it a risk factor for owning him in a dynasty league, I do.

 

Anyway, I appreciate that you follow Manning closely, I do as well, and I think the NFL will be losing not just a great player, but a great guy whenever he does hang it up. Manning is one of the players who has always gone overboard taking the time to sign autographs from day one at the ProBowl, I think I have around 10 total. He did it from day 1 and every time I saw him either at an appearance or at the stadium. Day 1 for him was his rookie year, he wasn't there for the game but for a rookie "beach football" game that they used to have every year before that NE RB tore his knee up at the event and was never the same. Manning was late for his appearance at the NFL experience show to autograph and people waiting in line were getting kind of a bad feeling. When he arrived he stayed for like an hour after the line, which kept growing, completely subsided. I was hanging out watching him and eventually went through the line a 2nd time but there were people going through like 5 times. He stayed until eveyone just stopped coming pretty much. Years later I had the chance to be on the field at the walkthrough-practices and Manning went to the sidelines after he was done and signed for everybody within reach before signing for those of us down on the field. He really shows respect and appreciation for fans of the game and I wish all young NFL players would look to him as a role model.

[kmbryant09 1]

How about a twist:

 

Let's get a discussion going about under-the-radar Dynasty Players.

 

QB:

Colin Kaepernick - I know he's being talked about, but buy-low on him while you still can. I think he can be a top3 QB in 2013, and he's only 25.

Ryan Tannehill - I was never a big fan of his, but I've got to hand it to him. He was a solid QB given for a rookie playing with absolutely no skill-players around him. Wouldn't be a bad backup next year with room for improvement if Miami signs Bowe/Jennings/Wallace.

 

RB:

Bernard Pierce - I know he is stuck behind Ray Rice, but this guy really impresses me. He's the real deal, and if Rice sustains an injury, Pierce could be a top5 RB in his own-right.

David Wilson - Is getting some hype, but he could be the lead back for a top10 offense as soon as 2013. And we know how explosive he is.

Lamichael James - Frank Gore will slow down eventually, and Kendall Hunter's future is clouded by his recent injury. I think he's just big enough to be a 20-touch RB, and he could be explosive paired with Kaep.

Vick Ballard - I've seen him ranked outside of the top30 in some dynasty rankings, which I don't understand. He may not be ultra-talented, but Indy was comfortable with him as the lead back. Luck will ensure that Indy has a great offense for years, and the O-Line is sure to improve.

Joique Bell - This is a flier. Detroit likes him as their passing-down RB, and he was probably their best overall RB. Wouldn't be surprised if they made him the #1 given how much they like to throw.

 

WR:

Golden Tate - Very talented, and now has a good QB throwing him the ball. Sidney Rice won't stay healthy forever, and Wilson has to throw it to somebody.

Jeremy Kerley - Fits the mold of an ideal slot-WR, which is becoming an increasingly important position in the NFL. Could be a sneaky PPR starter when the Jets figure out their QB-situation (probably not until 2014).

Julian Edelman - Would be the de factor candidate to replace Welker if the Patriots let him leave. Could be solid for 3-5 years before Brady hangs em up.

[lesjroza 70]

Ralphster- "Overall when evaluating players in this system I just prefer to concentrate on what I feel is the more known quality; spend your shells mostly on what is working now and save a few for whatever might pop up."

 

 

That definitely worked for you in year #1, no question about that!

 

I also think your core is young enough that your will not be falling off a cliff, but what I will be curious to watch is how you navigate replacing the production of S. Jackson, F. Jackson, D. Sproles, R. Wayne, and S. Smith and if you are able to remain competitive while doing so. Will you be able to continuously do that through draft pick trades for aging but productive players? Will you be able to trade those players before they decline for younger equal producers at some point? Will you be able to use the waiver wire to replace that production?

 

I think there are lots of different ways to win and no right answer, but the key is to stick within one's area of competency.

 

I will say that if we are allowed to do such a thing and you are willing I would risk trading my 2015 1st against your 2015 1st!

 

 

Like you Ralphster, I also have no problem commenting on my tactics, strategy, and player values to a large extent though there are some areas I would choose not to go. I know there are others in our league reading our every word and afraid to comment themselves due to fear of forfeiting an information advantage but look at where we ended up finishing!

 

The funny thing about putting something down on paper, or the internet equivalent, is that it forces you to synthesize your thoughts and clarifies your vision giving you a far better chance of acheiving it.

[lesjroza 70]

How about a twist:

 

Let's get a discussion going about under-the-radar Dynasty Players.

 

QB:

Colin Kaepernick - I know he's being talked about, but buy-low on him while you still can. I think he can be a top3 QB in 2013, and he's only 25.

Ryan Tannehill - I was never a big fan of his, but I've got to hand it to him. He was a solid QB given for a rookie playing with absolutely no skill-players around him. Wouldn't be a bad backup next year with room for improvement if Miami signs Bowe/Jennings/Wallace.

 

RB:

Bernard Pierce - I know he is stuck behind Ray Rice, but this guy really impresses me. He's the real deal, and if Rice sustains an injury, Pierce could be a top5 RB in his own-right.

David Wilson - Is getting some hype, but he could be the lead back for a top10 offense as soon as 2013. And we know how explosive he is.

Lamichael James - Frank Gore will slow down eventually, and Kendall Hunter's future is clouded by his recent injury. I think he's just big enough to be a 20-touch RB, and he could be explosive paired with Kaep.

Vick Ballard - I've seen him ranked outside of the top30 in some dynasty rankings, which I don't understand. He may not be ultra-talented, but Indy was comfortable with him as the lead back. Luck will ensure that Indy has a great offense for years, and the O-Line is sure to improve.

Joique Bell - This is a flier. Detroit likes him as their passing-down RB, and he was probably their best overall RB. Wouldn't be surprised if they made him the #1 given how much they like to throw.

 

WR:

Golden Tate - Very talented, and now has a good QB throwing him the ball. Sidney Rice won't stay healthy forever, and Wilson has to throw it to somebody.

Jeremy Kerley - Fits the mold of an ideal slot-WR, which is becoming an increasingly important position in the NFL. Could be a sneaky PPR starter when the Jets figure out their QB-situation (probably not until 2014).

Julian Edelman - Would be the de factor candidate to replace Welker if the Patriots let him leave. Could be solid for 3-5 years before Brady hangs em up.

 

Kaep. Love his talent level but he is in the spotlight and to aquire him at this point is likely to cost a pretty penny. Of course, if you are right and he is a perrenial top 3 QB whatever price you pay was probably a good deal. I don't agree at this point and buying on a guy like him at this point in his career is not my style. To give you an indication of MY style I was trying, and successful, in aquiring his SB counterpart Joe Flacco in the majority of my leagues right before the trade deadline. He was a 27 yr old, awfully cheap QB2 that I felt has a risk/reward chance putting up QB1 stats and becoming accepted as a QB1 in the next few years with a whole bunch of career still ahead. That type of trade is not trying to aquire your QB1 for the moment but to me that is a better example trying to buy low on a risk/reward. A play like that if it pans out can net you something of value in the future without risking alot.

 

Tannehill. Good call as a spec if the price is right.

 

Pierce. I tried to buy him a couple of times but the owners seem to want too much relative to what you can really expect of his production for the next 3 years.

He will be taking up a roster slot that could be used on another upside RB so you really can't pay too much. Of course you could hit Gold with an injury.

 

Wilson. Love him but traded him away a couple of weeks ago in one league. Being valued right now as a mid to late 3rd round startup pick so you will have to pay to get him but probably moves to a late 1 early 2nd round value when he gets feature role. When will it happen is the question?

 

Ballard. I think the idea that he is a value pick for next year is already out there, in the early 2013 CBS redraft mock he went in the 5th round which is late RB2 territory. Bottom line, he is not coming cheap from his owners unless something clearly changes in the offseason and you can't really invest alot because his talent level is not high enough that you can have the confidence at this point that he will have a 4 or 5 yr run. I own him in a few leagues cheaply and I think of him as being in no man's land to some extent, a depth starter for me that has enough value I wouldn't trade away without an equally useful piece.

 

L. James. Same idea as Pierce above but right now you can't count on any production at all while you are holding and you have no idea how far away you are from him having a role. Price would have to be right and you have to have a luxury slot for him but the guy can skate.

 

Tate- I am in Seahawks territory so I know a bit more about his off-field behavior and for my taste I would stay away. Intrigued? Do some Googling.

 

Kerley - No opinion

 

Edelman - picked him up and dedicated a roster slot as an offseason spec in several leagues while the WW was open.

 

J. Bell - I like him as a player but it would be hard to give up much value in FF at this point

[kmbryant09 1]

lesjroza - Solid input.

 

I definitely agree that most, if not all, of those players don't appear have much fantasy relevance in 2013. But I do think they are under-the-radar, valuable assets in a Dynasty League.

 

As for the RB's, all 5 have a chance to be starting RBs in 2014 or 2015. If you find yourself with Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Willis McGahee, etc. as a contributor in 2012-2013, then these are some of the names I'd be looking at to replace their production down the road.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I'm a little late posting my annual top 120 PPR dynasty prospect list, so I figured I'd post it here, even though this was a top 10's list topic. My wife and i got back from our cruise (BTW it was on Carnival Triumph - the same ship that sailed just before the one that is now being towed in - we had to skip Cozumel from our itinerary because the ship was only going at about 70% of max speed even then, but at least we made it back to Galveston.)

So here's my list of the top 120 fantasy prospects (plus a couple more). BTW, this is a PPR list.

 

QBs:

1. Rodgers

2. Newton

3. Kaepernick

4. Brees

5. Ryan

6. Luck

7. Brady

8. Wilson

9. Stafford

10 RGIII (He'd be higher but he really has a nasty knee injury to recover from)

11. Peyton

12. Romo

13. Eli

14. Flacco

15. Dalton

16. Big Ben

17. Freeman

18. Tannehill (He did absolutely amazing for the weapons he had last year)

19. Cutler

20. Schaub

21. Rivers

22. Bradford

 

TE:

1. Gronkowski

2. Graham

3. Hernandez

4. Witten

5. Olsen

6. V Davis

 

Add 7 - 14 you chose!

 

Now for the good stuff:

RBs:

1. foster

2. Richardson

3. Peterson

4. Martin

5. Rice

6. Spiller

7. Lynch

8. Forte

9. Charles

10. Sproles

11. McCoy

12. Gore

13. Morris (yes, it is still a PPR list)

14. Murray

15. Ridley

16. CJ?K

17. R Bush

18. J Stewart

19. MJD

20. Bradshaw

21. McFadden

22. D Wilson

23. L Miller

24. S Jackson

25. Ballard

26. BJGE

27. Andre Brown

28. LeShoure

29. Mathews

30. J Bell

31. McGahee

32. DeAng Williams

33. Pierce

34. B Tate

35. Hillman

36. Vereen

37. Moreno

38. D Richardson

 

More fun - WRs:

1. Calvin

2. A J Green

3. Marshall

4. Dez

5. Julio

6. Dem Thomas

7. Cobb

8. White

9. A Johnson

10. Cruz

11. Crabtree

12. Jennings

13. Wayne

14. V Jackson

15. Harvin (I'm not high on him for several reasons)

16. Welker (He'd be higher if I knew for sure he'd re-sign with NE)

17. Decker

18. Fitzgerald

19. S Smith

20. Colston

21. Nicks

22. Wallace

23. Stevie Johnson

24. D Bowe (this could be the return of the beast)

25. Austin

26. T Smith

27. Garcon

28. Maclin

29. Blackmon

30. M William

31. J Nelson

32. Shorts

33. Alexander (show me a complete season on those knees)

34. A Brown

35. James Jones

36. T Y Hilton

37. Hartline

38. De Jackson

39. K Wright

40. Gordon

41. Lloyd

42. Little

43. Boldin

44. Britt (He's had 4 seasons to figure it out)

45. S Rice

46. Amendola (Your complete wild card)

47. Den Moore

48. Roberts

49. Streater

50. Jeffery

51. Givens

52. G Tate

53. Edelman (He'd be much higher if Welker were to sign elsewhere)

54. DHB

55. S Holmes

56. V Brown (Don't forget about him!)

 

OK guys, who is radically out of order here? Let's hear it!

[kmbryant09 1]

MFM - Thanks for this work, always appreciate your input. Here are a few of my thoughts:

 

-Glad to see you high on Colin Kaepernick. I'm about to participate in an auction style Dynasty start-up draft, my 1st Dynasty league, and he's my primary target. I've been talking him up on a few dynasty forums as a top3 Dynasty QB, and people have been laughing at the remarks. I really see him as a bigger RG3 and a better passing Cam Newton. He's only 25, and the sky is the limit. His floor, if healthy, seems to be in the 8-10 range.

 

-I'm beginning to disagree about the middle ~8 or so QB's (Big Ben, Eli, Romo, Flacco, Dalton, Cutler, Schaub, Freeman). In your 10 and 12 team leagues, none of these guys are starters. And besides an occasional season from Eli & Romo, they aren't ever going to be top10 QB's. At this point in their career (except maybe Dalton, though I'm not high on him), we know who these guys are. They obviously provide a solid backup, but I think I'd rather roster a few of the younger players (Tannehill, Bradford) that at least are unknowns at this point, especially if I have a reliable #1. I don't really think Tannehill or Bradford will have better 2013 seasons than those middle-8 QB's that I listed, but I feel like they at least have a higher ceiling.

 

-Care to elaborate why you aren't that high on Jamaal Charles & Lesean McCoy? Charles has already put up 2 great seasons in the last 3 years (the other season lost to torn ACL), and that was with a bimbo coaching staff that refused to use him properly. Andy Reid has a history of favoring a lead-back approach - and I think Charles is in line for ~350 touches the next few years. The McCoy ranking is interesting. I've seen him as the #1 dynasty RB, and as low as in the teens. I personally think he's a top5 talent at his position, he's only 25, and is the lead-back for Chip Kelly. I just can't fathom ranking him and Gore neck and neck. You could make the argument that Gore is every bit the fantasy option for 2013, but he's 5 years older and has a billion extra carries. No reason to rank him as high as McCoy in dynasty, especially in PPR.

 

-Did you make this list a few weeks ago? Specifically, before Ahmad Bradshaw got released? Even if David Wilson is splitting carries with Andre Brown in 2013, I've gotta believe that he'll be the future RB in New York. We all know how talented/explosive he is, and he finally has a clear path to 15-20 touches/game. I'd rank him somewhere between 10-15.

 

-I also feel like Reggie Wayne is a bit too high. He had a great 2012, but I don't see him repeating those numbers in 2013 with the emergence of Hilton/Allen/Fleener. And as we all know, he's probably only a year or two away from a significant decline in performance due to age. He's a good 1-year rental for a contender, but nothing else in my opinion.

[Stewburtx8 67]

I agree with Kmbryant's comments for the most part. Lesean McCoy outside the top 10 is kind of surprising. I think he is a top 3 talent at the RB position. Chip Kelly should be able to get him the ball in space a lot more this season which is where he excels. I'd definitely push him up on my original rankings.

 

I also don't think you can rank Ahmad Bradshaw as a top 20 RB when he isn't going to be healthy for a few months and no one knows what team he will end up with yet.

 

I'm not quite as high on Kaepernick but he would certainly be in my top 8-10 at this point, and I can see the argument for where you have him.

 

Nice list overall as usual.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I gave much thought to the Bradshaw, Wilson, A Brown situation and I'm very comfortable with their rankings.

 

I do not believe that the new screw in his foot is a career altering event. Bradshaw has played with chronic stress fractures in his foot for years, and has proven his ability to tolerate pain and still put up quality production. So I discount anything as drastic as a forced and early retirement.

 

There are, however, several different possible scenarios here. The release was basically a cap motivated move, and obviously the Giants feel very confident in moving forward with the tandem of Wilson and Andre Brown. But I still think (and this might be the doomsday scenario for all of them) that there is a reasonable possibility of Bradshaw re-signing with the Giants. Bradshaw, if healthy, would likely be the lead back in a 3 way RBBC. He's still the most well rounded of all of them.

 

BTW, here are the 2012 stats for each:

Bradshaw 221 carries, 1015 yds (4.6 ypc), 6 TDs 23 recepts for 245

 

Wilson 71 carries, 358 yds, (5.0 ypc), 4 TDs, only 4 recepts for 34 yds (He's still the poorest pass blocker of the 3.)

 

Brown 73 carries, 385 yds, (5.3 ypc), a whopping 8 TDs (He will be their goal line guy), 12 rec for 46 yds.

 

So if Bradshaw does re-sign, the whole situation merits a rather low estimate for all 3 of them.

 

If Bradshaw moves on, I'm betting it will be to a situation that features him at least in a lead back in a RBBC and maximizes his strengths. Bradshaw is a smart guy. A place like Green Bay would be the perfect scenario. I can then predict that he will get more touches than the Wilson, Andre Brown tandem - and yes, with all of the uncertainty I'm treating this more like a "redraft" situation at this point.

 

If Bradshaw does go, it is NOT a foregone conclusion that David Wilson is "the man". In my mind, the more probable scenario is very close to a 50/50 RBBC. No question that Wilson is a potential gamebreaker when he gets a crease. But Andre Brown runs angry and with power. 5.3 ypc and 8 TDs can not be ignored. He is much better as a runner than Brandon Jacobs in the old Bradshaw/Jacobs combo. He is also the better of the two at pass protection and at goal line.

 

While a game-breaking 5 ypc is nothing to sneeze at either, I think many fantasy ballers have David Wilson very over-rated based on the way he ended the season, and are almost completely forgetting what Brown is capable of.

 

So I'll stand by my ranking of these guys.

 

 

Regarding Charles and McCoy, I have both in my RB1 group, and the entire back end of the top 12 group is really close. While i would not quibble that they may be a few rankings too low, there's no question that they are outside of my personal top 5 right now.

 

With Reid at the helm and the introduction of the West Coast offense at KC, I'd expect Charles rushing numbers to drop somewhat, but that he might get a few more catches out of the backfield. Does he have the potential to be top 5? Certainly, but I'm comfortable with the tier I have him in, and that is the important thing.

 

Regarding Shady, again you have a player who is very capable of top 5 potential but will also be in a new offense. Further, I see a very talented RB in Bryce Brown, and expect that he will learn to run with more ball control, and will be used to spell McCoy frequently.

 

I'm usually a bit queezy with any player in a new offense until i see how he will adapt. But I would not quarrel at all with those who have these two guys ranked higher than Lynch, Spiller, Forte and/or Sproles particularly. I just might adjust them upward a bit myself.

[lesjroza 70]

Thanks for sharing MFM. A dynasty ranking list is obviously a difficult and extremely subjective list to compile because it is the vision of value over the course of a players remaining career. The ranking list has to consider that the value of proven productive current scorers with a shorter shelf life, against the projected point arc of talented young players. Not only is it difficult to compare the value of young players against vets, I think it is a fact that the value of each is varies within the context of the makeup of differing rosters (Brees may have more value to a competitive roster than Luck while Luck more to a rebuilding team for instance).

 

Considering the extremely subjective nature and wide range of reasonable outcomes that can be justified I don't find much in your analysis to counter,

I will play devil's advocate with one ranking however for the fun of it. I suspect you expected to get some push-back on this ranking in particular and are well prepared to defend your position but here it goes.

 

Kaepernick at #3 overall QB! Really! I like him too. I even tried to trade for him in a couple of leagues. It is clear he has all of the tools necessary to become a very good NFL QB and a dangerous FF scoring QB but....

 

he has started 8 games in the NFL regular season.

EIGHT GAMES!

 

Defensive coordinators are just getting a good look at how to defend his particular talents during this offseason after his surprise ascension to the starting role in the middle of the year. In addition to not really having "the book" on Kap individually Jim Harbaugh multiplied the surprise factor by changing large portions of the offensive tactics after Kap was promoted and so DCs did not even have a fair amount of tape on what was coming from the offense overall week to week this year.

 

Don't you think that this surprise factor probably aided Kaps successs this year and that he will have a more difficult road next year? Isn't it hard to make a fair judgement of what will be going forward without a larger sample size? or at least a bit presumptuous to have him at #3?

 

Despite the great the WOW factor we could all see on the screen, and the surprise factor afforded him on the field, here are the numbers in a typical PPR league for his 8 starts this year.

 

Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB AVG PTS 20.950 individual weeks 10-17 17.75 21.65 23.60 21.00 21.20 21.00 18.85 22.55

 

20.95 is the average and the rest is the individual Weeks 10-17

 

Looks great right? Who wouldn't want that? But...........

 

Here is how the top 10 QBs finished in terms of avg points in the same league over the same weeks 10-17 as Kap

 

1 Newton 27.93

2 Wilson 27.15

3 Brady 24.99

4 Brees 24.53

5 Griffin 24.20

6 Romo 24.16

7 Rodgers 23.56

8 Ryan 21.08

9 Manning P. 21.03

10 Kap 20.31

 

Stafford and Luck were 11 and 12 by the way and just a hair below.

 

Kap was barely in the top 10 with 2 rookies well above him and another right behind him. A number of the QBs that scored better in FF during the span he played are nearly as young and the rest have much longer proven track records.

 

Taking all of the above into consideration let's hear your defense of ranking him #3!

 

I hope you realize this is all friendly banter and no offense is intended. You are my favorite poster!