McGahee

[BigDaddy808 8]

He's getting a lot of carries! I haven't been able to watch a browns game, is he that bad? If so, why keep feeding him the rock?

[WR Guru 31]

He's getting a lot of carries! I haven't been able to watch a browns game, is he that bad? If so, why keep feeding him the rock?

He got extra work because Ogbanaya got his bell rung early in the game and never returned.

[Natod12 14]

he looked pretty good

[snatchit 108]

he looks pretty good, I thought he would be a waste of a roster space

[Bullet73 4]

2.8 YPC... 2.2 if you take away his longest run.

[bidoof01 0]

It's still only his 3rd game back so I'll let him slide until he gets back into game shape. He's looking better each game though.

[The Frontrunner 1]

Try to sell high to someone who needs a running back? Thoughts?

[Giants Fan 85]

2.8 YPC... 2.2 if you take away his longest run.

 

If you take away all his runs he got zero yards.

[STLNATE 0]

 

If you take away all his runs he got zero yards.

His point was that there was an outlier greatly affecting the average. You're right to point out that it still counts towards the average, but when you are trying to predict a future average (which is what we're doing here) outliers are important to note.

[Giants Fan 85]

His point was that there was an outlier greatly affecting the average. You're right to point out that it still counts towards the average, but when you are trying to predict a future average (which is what we're doing here) outliers are important to note.

 

 

That's right, but it is skewing the facts in a way that supports the argument you are making, instead of being objective when you start saying "take away ... X".

 

I think McGahee looked good. Slower than he used to be, but solid .... he's clearly going to be the RB in that offense ... good or bad, for the forseeable future. There is value in that alone ... that he IS the lead back. YPC, for one game ... is a very small sample size to work with, as you know. But what we are doing is not trying to predict a future average, but future value.

 

Value vs. the roster spot, value vs. keeping him away from your opponent, value as a flex starter, value as RB depth in case of injuries. YPC over 1 game? Yeah .... that's all you need to predict the future.

 

I don't own McGahee, but I value a Christine Michael ... or Bryce Brown ... someone who instantly shoots to the top of my RB corps as having higher value, than someone like McGahee, who is likely going to retire after this year.

[STLNATE 0]

It isn't skewing the facts, what he said is the facts. He did choose a fact that maybe supported his claim, which is what people do in a discussion, unlike a scientific journal or something.

 

I know the average yards per carry isn't all you need to predict, I just meant you are trying to predict value like you said and that is a factor in that value.

I'm not on either side of the discussion, I was just defending the validity of his statistic.

[Giants Fan 85]

We agree then. Future value is what we are trying to determine.

 

One game, particularly if you start nit picking out specific results because they don't figure into your argument ... that's not much to form any kind of speculative evaluation on ... particularly when it really doesn't address value in the first place.

[Djgb13 2,338]

The thing about him is that she. They were in the red zone they passed only once and the other 10+ times were runs by mcgahee. I'd say that's def worth a roster spot

[steelers2101 7]

2.8 YPC... 2.2 if you take away his longest run.

What if you take away his 5 shortest runs?

[Bullet73 4]

His point was that there was an outlier greatly affecting the average. You're right to point out that it still counts towards the average, but when you are trying to predict a future average (which is what we're doing here) outliers are important to note.

Thank you for having some intelligence. Sometimes these fantasy folks talk all high and mighty and do not understand football. I, for one, am a high school coach for a larger school in Texas and we go through these evaluations weekly. We like to see how effective each runner was from every angle possible. I watched the game and was not impressed. I expect his YPC to be sub-4 for the rest of the year.

[Serpent 51]

 

If you take away all his runs he got zero yards.

 

If you take away all of Drew Brees passes he sucks!

 

If you only look at Geno Smith's longest pass plays he is awesome!

 

I'd rather take away Geno's outlier bombs and play Drew Brees though. You can do whatever you want.

[Birk 14]

Regardless he still got me around 12pts and i will take it!

[R8RMick 242]

Buffalo's run defense has been matador-esque all season, and his 2.8 ypc against it was hardly inspiring. Respectfully, this sounds like a bunch of people wandering the desert, looking for a glass of water at running back.

[saut 7]

If I ever have to start this guy I'm in big trouble, but I'm hoping for another 70/td kind of game against the Lions next week so that I can potentially use him as leverage in a 2-1 kind of trade with a RB needy team.

[BigDaddy808 8]

His ypc might suck but to call him a desperation play is a bit much. His workload alone validates a roster spot, I'm sure there's a few Ridley owners that would take his production in a heartbeat.

[R8RMick 242]

Well he wasn't a desperation play against the Bill's run defense lol... I merely advised- temper expectations.

[STLNATE 0]

Thank you for having some intelligence. Sometimes these fantasy folks talk all high and mighty and do not understand football.

No problem, while I am a football fan I also have a decent math background and that's more of the angle I was coming from. Removing outliers is a common and accepted method in analyzing data.

[BigDaddy808 8]

No problem, while I am a football fan I also have a decent math background and that's more of the angle I was coming from. Removing outliers is a common and accepted method in analyzing data.

[BigDaddy808 8]

As someone mentioned earlier, wouldn't we have to remove the short yardage carries as well to find a more realistic average? Didn't he carry it a few times at the goal line?

[madd futher mucker 36]

Raw RB stats can be deceiving; they depend much on down and distance situations as well as the defensive schemes. To my eyes, McGahee ran hard against a very under-rated defense The Bills defense against the run is not nearly as bad as another poster implied, which is why I left him on my bench.

 

In hindsight, I really wish I'd started him in my non-PPR league. Depending on match-ups, in standard scoring leagues, he will be as high as a RB2 against certain teams. I would drop him to a RB3/ flex in just about any PPR game where I would need to start him. Cleveland will use him very little as a receiver in the passing game.

[STLNATE 0]

As someone mentioned earlier, wouldn't we have to remove the short yardage carries as well to find a more realistic average? Didn't he carry it a few times at the goal line?

There really is no right or wrong when looking at statistics unless, of course, you are actually changing them. You could remove those if you want but keep in mind those short yardage runs don't affect the average near as much as the break away runs.

 

Removing the high outliers isn't to say well this run doesn't count, the purpose is to see what kind of distribution there is. For example two runners may each have 10 carries and 35 total yards averaging 3.5 total carries, but runner A may have all 10 runs within 2 yards of 3.5 and runner B may have had a 15 yard run and averaged 2.2 ypc on the other 9 carries. There is no real better or worse, it just depends on how you interpret the two different distribution types and how you think they might predict future results.

[madd futher mucker 36]

As one who enjoyed statistical theory courses in college (40+ years ago), as well as a former CPA and a reasonably decent tournament and online poker player for a while, I've found that 'stat monkeys' make some of the poorest fantasy football owners i've known.

 

Yes, stats have their place in this great passion of ours, but are they are a poor subsititute for having a well trained set of eyes when actually watching the games, and a great knowlege and appreciation of game theory. Even more important is having the discipline to avoid knee jerk reactions based on inadequate sample sizes - especially from single game results.

[STLNATE 0]

As one who enjoyed statistical theory courses in college (40+ years ago), as well as a former CPA and a reasonably decent tournament and online poker player for a while, I've found that 'stat monkeys' make some of the poorest fantasy football owners i've known.

 

Yes, stats have their place in this great passion of ours, but are they are a poor subsititute for having a well trained set of eyes when actually watching the games, and a great knowlege and appreciation of game theory. Even more important is having the discipline to avoid knee jerk reactions based on inadequate sample sizes - especially from single game results.

I agree with all of that, I don't consider myself a stat monkey though. I happen to have a statistical background but I don't really use it in my own fantasy football. Now if I could be a psychologist and figure out what these coaches are gonna do, then I'd really be getting somewhere.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I agree with all of that, I don't consider myself a stat monkey though. I happen to have a statistical background but I don't really use it in my own fantasy football. Now if I could be a psychologist and figure out what these coaches are gonna do, then I'd really be getting somewhere.

 

Amen, bro. But i don't think even being a psychologist would help. An inpatient in an insane asylum, maybe.

[Maulers1973 117]

McGhee will get touches. However he looks slow. He has no explosive burst. He was able to break a couple tackles. He'll be a muddier that averages 42 ypg the rest of the way.