For those who have been mocking: go WR-WR at the bottom of round 1?

[BigMilk 40]

In a 12 or 14 team snake draft, if you are picking from the 8 hole or later and are drafting "best player available," it seems to me you have to WR-WR. By pick 8 or later, all the "safe" RBs are gone. So when it comes to your 2nd round pick, do you grab a Ball or a Bernard when a Tier 1 WR may have dropped in your lap? I'd like to say no and grab the WR (or even a Peyton or a Rodgers or a Brees), but RB after round 2 is just plain scary.

 

How are others strategizing at the bottom of the draft?

[browns16-0 30]

I've heard this strategy for the last 10 years. I can never bring myself to do it because of the rb's you'll end getting stuck with. I am not going to get stuck with MJD or Blunt as my rb1...

[MDC 5,892]

The problem I have with this strategy is that RB won't be BPA in any of the later rounds either. So if you go WR-WR in 1-2 you're almost forced to start reaching in several later rounds. That or get hugely aggressive on the FA market, which almost always works as a strategy.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

it doesn't really matter, but i'd look to draft a Ball or Murray and pair with a Dez or AJ Green. WR is deep that you really don't need to grab 2 studs. It gives you little advantage over the guy drafting #1 overall who takes McCoy and then follows that up at the 2/3 turn with Antonio Brown and Alshon Jeffery. sure, your WR pair would be better but not by much and you won't have anything close to McCoy.

 

i think its always important, no matter where you draft from, to try an gauge what will be there for you in rounds 3 and 4. If you're picking 12th and you go WR/WR, you're looking at Vereen, Sankey, Tate, Mathews in rounds 3/4. Might be alright in PPR to go ahead and draft Vereen and maybe Sankey but in standard .... Alternatively there will be WR's such as Garcon, VJax, Fitz, Harvin, Cruz

 

AJ Green, Demarco Murray, Pierre Garcon is a solid first 3. then you can grab one of the RB's in the Vereen, Sankey, Tate tier OR you can grab another WR. You'd be playing catch up a little bit with only 1 RB through 4 rounds but it wouldn't kill you to take the WR value instead.

 

AJ Green, Julio Jones, Ben Tate is worse, imo. Yeah you could replace Jones with Marshall or maybe you get lucky and get AJ AND Dez... you can swap Tate with Vereen or Sankey. either way it's still not as nice and you would be forced to ignore the WR value in rounds 3 and 4. You wouldn't really want your only RB through 4 rounds to be Ben Tate.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

I will also add that having done several mocks and a few real drafts already, The place to be this year in redraft is the top 4 picks. After that, i'd want to be in the last 2 spots. The middle is tough. Everyone has different tiers but I find that with my tiers, I am constantly having a tier vanish just before my pick when i pick in the middle. No value to be had.

 

Pick in the top 4? You can grab one of the "safe" star RB's McCoy, Charles, Peterson, Forte and tons of talent will be there for you in the 2/3 turn. Want another RB? might get lucky with Martin or Stacy if you trust them. QB? Rodgers and Brees routinely make it back to you. WR? Brown, Jeffery, Cobb, Nelson and sometimes even Julio falls back there in round 2.

[giraldi02 470]

This strategy last year won me two redrafts and a 2nd place finish in a 3rd league.

 

In PPR leagues if you're at the 11/12 spots its smarter to do this and take what falls to you later. You'll also start a major run on wide receivers in the 2nd and 3rd rounds most likely preserving at least one decent back.

 

The draft isn't the only part of the formula. Zac Stacy and Alfred Morris have shown in the two past seasons that serviceable starters are available either late or right after as UDFA in most leagues. But taking someone like Foster just because you have to abide by some archaic strategy will get you in the pole position for the toilet bowl

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

 

The draft isn't the only part of the formula. Zac Stacy and Alfred Morris have shown in the two past seasons that serviceable starters are available either late or right after as UDFA in most leagues.

 

i would agree with this but add that you can't factor this in while drafting. waivers and free agency are a separate entity. every owner should be looking for the next impact waiver guys at every position regardless of what their draft strategy was.

[giraldi02 470]

 

i would agree with this but add that you can't factor this in while drafting. waivers and free agency are a separate entity. every owner should be looking for the next impact waiver guys at every position regardless of what their draft strategy was.

Fully agree. My first three backs in my main league were Gore/DWilson/Gio. I thought I had struck unbelievable gold after going WR/WR. Fortunately my man crush (last year) for Stacy allowed me to pick him up early in all my redrafts and salvage that Wilson blunder......last year..this year expect 2000 yards from scrimmage

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

im not against going Wr/WR, nor do I think you should go RB/RB and force it on the 1-2 swing. I'm in the RB/WR camp on this one but my question for those who prefer going WR/WR would be this..... is there THAT much of a difference between Julio Jones coming off multiple foot injuries and Garcon, Jackson, Cruz, Fitz that it makes sense to pass on a talented 3 down back?

 

if you can get Dez and AJ Green, thats great but I think thats hard to do unless you pick 12th in a 12 team league and Green falls.

[BigMilk 40]

it doesn't really matter, but i'd look to draft a Ball or Murray and pair with a Dez or AJ Green. WR is deep that you really don't need to grab 2 studs. It gives you little advantage over the guy drafting #1 overall who takes McCoy and then follows that up at the 2/3 turn with Antonio Brown and Alshon Jeffery. sure, your WR pair would be better but not by much and you won't have anything close to McCoy.

 

i think its always important, no matter where you draft from, to try an gauge what will be there for you in rounds 3 and 4. If you're picking 12th and you go WR/WR, you're looking at Vereen, Sankey, Tate, Mathews in rounds 3/4. Might be alright in PPR to go ahead and draft Vereen and maybe Sankey but in standard .... Alternatively there will be WR's such as Garcon, VJax, Fitz, Harvin, Cruz

 

This makes a lot of sense. Thanks.

[dave32 14]

I agree with the above statement that if you skip on RB early it forces you to reach for need in the ensuing rounds. WR is so deep you can pick sleepers for days well into the later rounds, the risk is much less.

[weepaws 2,460]

No i would not go wr wr . If you don't want to go wr rb then go wr te and get Graham .

[BobSanders_33 127]

I agree with the above statement that if you skip on RB early it forces you to reach for need in the ensuing rounds. WR is so deep you can pick sleepers for days well into the later rounds, the risk is much less.

 

The other side is that if you go Dem/Dez then you are set at those two spots and can spend the other draft filling your roster with RB2s to play match ups and your high upside Jo Bell type lottery tickets. After the first 4 RBs it gets really dicey and I don't really want to spend an early draft pick on a player that I'm concerned about injury risk like Foster or use like Martin/Stacy.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

 

The other side is that if you go Dem/Dez then you are set at those two spots and can spend the other draft filling your roster with RB2s to play match ups and your high upside Jo Bell type lottery tickets. After the first 4 RBs it gets really dicey and I don't really want to spend an early draft pick on a player that I'm concerned about injury risk like Foster or use like Martin/Stacy.

 

for starters, its hard to assume you will land Dem and Dez. Dem's ADP is 1.08 and Dez is 1.10 in PPR formats. You may not get either of them. you might not even have a shot at Dez+AJ. More realistically you are looking at Dez or AJ with Julio or Marshall on the other end.

 

the second issue is how many subsequent picks do you plan to use on RB2's to play matchups? most leagues you will still need a good WR3 or flex option. You need your QB and TE.... would using picks 3-5 on random RB2's be good enough? sounds shaky at best.

 

plus, every single turn youll be saying "the WR value is so much better than the RB value but I gotta get some RB's"

[weepaws 2,460]

 

for starters, its hard to assume you will land Dem and Dez. Dem's ADP is 1.08 and Dez is 1.10 in PPR formats. You may not get either of them. you might not even have a shot at Dez+AJ. More realistically you are looking at Dez or AJ with Julio or Marshall on the other end.

 

the second issue is how many subsequent picks do you plan to use on RB2's to play matchups? most leagues you will still need a good WR3 or flex option. You need your QB and TE.... would using picks 3-5 on random RB2's be good enough? sounds shaky at best.

 

plus, every single turn youll be saying "the WR value is so much better than the RB value but I gotta get some RB's"

Yeah that was a very good post i agree with what you said

[Upper Class Trash 67]

This strategy last year won me two redrafts and a 2nd place finish in a 3rd league.

 

In PPR leagues if you're at the 11/12 spots its smarter to do this and take what falls to you later. You'll also start a major run on wide receivers in the 2nd and 3rd rounds most likely preserving at least one decent back.

 

The draft isn't the only part of the formula. Zac Stacy and Alfred Morris have shown in the two past seasons that serviceable starters are available either late or right after as UDFA in most leagues. But taking someone like Foster just because you have to abide by some archaic strategy will get you in the pole position for the toilet bowl

You should have also added that in most drafts, Zac Stacey and Alfred Morris were NOT drafted. They were picked up on the waiver wire. I love seeing people go WR/WR to start the draft. They never win the league. If you are picking at the 1.12 and 2.01, who are your RB's at 3.12 and 4.01? I have several redrafts already on the books this year. Your RB's will be absolute crap. And god forbid you are in a league where you must start two RB's. That means at the 5.12 and 6.01 you are trying to pick up more RB's. There aren't any left my friend. I am a value based drafted, and the value is plentiful with literally 40 WR's who could challenge to be in the top 20 at the end of the season. You have maybe 15 RB's who will even pose a challenge to finish in the top ten. Keep that in mind while drafting. You can get WR's all draft long. The RB's won't last.

[giraldi02 470]

You should have also added that in most drafts, Zac Stacey and Alfred Morris were NOT drafted. They were picked up on the waiver wire. I love seeing people go WR/WR to start the draft. They never win the league. If you are picking at the 1.12 and 2.01, who are your RB's at 3.12 and 4.01? I have several redrafts already on the books this year. Your RB's will be absolute crap. And god forbid you are in a league where you must start two RB's. That means at the 5.12 and 6.01 you are trying to pick up more RB's. There aren't any left my friend. I am a value based drafted, and the value is plentiful with literally 40 WR's who could challenge to be in the top 20 at the end of the season. You have maybe 15 RB's who will even pose a challenge to finish in the top ten. Keep that in mind while drafting. You can get WR's all draft long. The RB's won't last.

In a PPR league? I'll go with Spiller and Ellington in my leagues as of their current ADP. T-Rich ADP is the end of the 5th in 12 man leagues. End of the 5th! Yeah. I can lock up two dynamic money in the bank WR's and then roll the crapshoot on RB's because that's the way the NFL is. The Andre Ellington's of the NFL equate to the Alfred Morris' on fractions of the touches. And aside from the elite backfields (picks 1-4), any one of these running backs can serve as a potential time share. Toby Gerhart and Rashad Jennings are perfect examples of production from a minimum cost that could pay HUGE dividends later.

 

I'm not saying either way is a correct way to do it. Drafts are fluid. They need to be easily adaptable and easily manipulated based on each thing before and after. What I am saying is, if Dez and Demaryius are staring me down at 1.11 and 2.02 or 1.12 and 2.01, I'm taking them and laughing my way to the playoffs. By then, I hopefully will use my BB/trades to improve the other core players

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

if Dez and Demaryius are staring me down at 1.11 and 2.02 or 1.12 and 2.01, I'm taking them and laughing my way to the playoffs. By then, I hopefully will use my BB/trades to improve the other core players

 

absolutely. its just unlikely that both or either will be there unless you're drafting with FF newcomers. going by ADP both are gone by 1.10 in ppr leagues.

[ckleinhe 2]

the other thing to consider is volatility, of two sorts. first is health volatility: RBs get injured more than other positions do. second is scoring volatility: RB scoring is more volatile than any other position.

 

so after the "safe" RBs (btw, remember that half of the "safe round 1 RBs" last year busted), these two factors really favor the other positions.

 

if you accept that a big portion of which RBs produce each year is chance, then the best strategy is to acquire as many as possible, as cheaply as possible.

 

i'm not saying "don't take a RB in round one or two". there are definitely guys worthy of being picked there.

 

but i am saying i've got no problem waiting until round 3, 4, 5, or later to start acquiring RBs.

 

you could get joique bell, fred jackson, stevan ridley, terrance west, bernard pierce, etc. all in fifth round or later. sexy? no. but the first three are 1000 total yard types if they stay healthy, and the second two are likely timeshare minimum/starter potential types.

 

so by round 5 i could have 2 WR1s, a top TE and a top QB. just sayin.

[Maroon Bells 18]

I actually prefer to pick late for this very reason. I like getting TWO of the best wide receivers in the draft. I typically follow that up by taking 4 straight, high-upside RBs. In this year's draft, that would be guys like Rice/Forsett or Spiller, Sankey. If you hit on half, you've won your league. If you don't hit, you should be in good position to play the waiver wire, where it's much easier to find a go-to RB than a go-to WR. I've won Super Bowls with waiver backs like Jackie Battle, Andre Brown, Zac Stacy, etc.

[snatchit 108]

I kept AJ Green and Dez last year in my 12 team ppr and came in second in points,... to the dude that had Peyton and Charles. It worked out great from the 8th spot. I grabbed 4 RB's in a row in the next 4 rounds coming up with Murray, Ridley ( traded Ridley just before he went bust for CJ1 just before he took off a bit ) Gore and DMAC (bust ) Of course picked up some guys and made some more trades along the way. I had AJ and Rice lined up for my keepers but traded Rice for Dez just before the season started My point is and I have made it many times on here, RB's are such a crap shoot, look at last year... you can grab 4 or 5 after round 2 and more than likely 2 will work out and you will have 2 super stud WR's to boot. Got Romo in the 8th because he fell to me... had an all Dallas team just based on BPA but it worked out. ALSO Beware... teams are finally catching on with the RBBC. Its gonna be with most a deal where do you want a between the 20's guy or a goal line back

[ffgiant 10]

But lots of fantasy owners are catching up. I have seen stud WRs going early. You should still be able to get serviceable RB in round 3 or 4.

 

Of course each league is different from others, you might want to keep your mind open and draft BPA.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I actually prefer to pick late for this very reason. I like getting TWO of the best wide receivers in the draft. I typically follow that up by taking 4 straight, high-upside RBs. In this year's draft, that would be guys like Rice/Forsett or Spiller, Sankey. If you hit on half, you've won your league. If you don't hit, you should be in good position to play the waiver wire, where it's much easier to find a go-to RB than a go-to WR. I've won Super Bowls with waiver backs like Jackie Battle, Andre Brown, Zac Stacy, etc.

Good luck with that Forsett guy...

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

The only league that it really matters for me is my big money league. I draft last or second to last every year and am always focked. It is not a ppr league and we start 2 wr 2 rb with no flex. Every single focking year I guess wrong on the early rbs that I draft. I passed on Forte for TRich last year. Two years ago I drafted Graham and Stafford when Stafford has his down year. Three years ago I did try WR/WR and ended up with the first two off the board, Calvin and Andre. Yeah that didn't work out too well.

 

In ppr leagues it works. In non ppr leagues it is a very dangerous game to play. Of course if you pick the right guys it all works out fine. It is just harder to hit on those guys in middle rounds. This year is great for middle round RBs if you have two stud receivers imo. One name that isn't really being mentioned is Ben Tate. I don't expect him to lead the league or anything, but the dude has skill. He is on a Browns team that has had success at the rb position with much less quality players. He is hurt all the time, but if other mid level rbs are going off the board I would have no problem taking him.

[Man_of_Leisure 0]

I won my league going WR/WR. Granted, there were some newbies. I grabbed Megatron and then Dez Bryant on the turn. Took Lacy in the 3rd. Lamar Miller in the 4th which wasn't much help and then I got Bell. Went all rookies by grabbing Stacy off the wire.

I did get lucky with the rookies, but the team really started scoring just as league playoffs began.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Every few years going all rookie rbs will be enough at the position to win it all.

[BoxFullofJoel 3]

I won both of my leagues going WR heavy. Pre season top 10 Rb only pan out 4 out of 10 times. Why not go with stud WR and Qb as well and have guaranteed top 5 production. Especially when you can add a wr flex too in a ppr league. I just go upside heavy with rb (rookies etc....)

 

For 2 leagues my WR were Gordon, Demerius,Allen, Dez,Marshall,Roddy white