Auction Draft Strategy Idea - Take Handcuffs in First Round for $1 (or slightly more)?

[BingoBrown 8]

Prepping for my auction draft in a few weeks, and I suddenly had an idea. I had previously heard of the strategy of taking a kicker or defense early in an auction draft, as no one wants to outbid you for those spots early on. For example, last year I took Matt Prater with my first round auction selection for $1.

 

I was thinking this year I might tweak that strategy a big and elect a handcuff RB early in the draft, before anyone has had a chance to select the RB he would be handcuffed to. Someone like a Knile Davis, Carlos Hyde, or Joique Bell (although all of these may elicit some bidding above $1, especially Joique Bell). The thought is that not very many people would choose to bid up a handcuff RB so early in the draft, thereby hopefully giving you the player for $1 or not much more. You've then devalued the primary RB to that handcuff a small bit as well, so hopefully whomever you are bidding with for that primary RB isn't willing to go as far as he would otherwise, knowing that the handcuff has been taken. And even if you don't get the primary RB for the handcuff, you've not spent much on the handcuff RB. If you can keep the handcuff RB on your bench all season, should the primary RB go down with injury, you've now got a steal.

 

Obviously, the soundness of this strategy is going to vary from league to league, but at least in my league, it might help me shave a few dollars off both the handcuff RB and his primary RB pairing.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Hey its outside the box. I like it. You're like that guy who already owns the property in Monopoly that keeps anyone else from buying it.

[Matt Mueller 148]

I've been thinking about doing this with Cutler. How much is he gonna go for first round?

 

My 2nd option is Roddy White but his ADP seems to be on the rise.

[BingoBrown 8]

I've been thinking about doing this with Cutler. How much is he gonna go for first round?

 

My 2nd option is Roddy White but his ADP seems to be on the rise.

 

In a single QB league? I can't imagine Cutler would go for a lot. But I don't think it'll matter a whole lot when you take Cutler either, he's probably only worth $1 to $3 at any time. But if that's who you definitely want as your starting QB, throwing a buck down on him early will probably get you him.

[shutdown 40]

I'm not sure it devalues the primary RB. That depends on the situation. For example, with Frank Gore, everyone knows his age and his production is pretty constant at the low RB1, high RB2 level. I don't think most owners are going to get overly concerned about handcuffing him with Hyde as they will just look to have sufficient depth to offset that loss. Now with Charles, the handcuff is a little more attractive because he has gone out for a full season in the past, and if that happens you are losing arguably the #1 player in your league. But say you grab Davis early. How much does it really devalue Charles? Certainly McCoy and Peterson become more attractive, but are you going to now spend more on Matt Forte than Charles because you can't back him up with Knile Davis (injury prone in his own right)

 

I think you may be over thinking the value of the handcuff. I agree that pretty much anyone you throw out early can usually be had at some discount because owners are hesitant to overpay when they still need to fill their entire team, but I'm not sure that is any more specific to handcuff players than to any player.

[Matt Mueller 148]

 

In a single QB league? I can't imagine Cutler would go for a lot. But I don't think it'll matter a whole lot when you take Cutler either, he's probably only worth $1 to $3 at any time. But if that's who you definitely want as your starting QB, throwing a buck down on him early will probably get you him.

 

He could almost go for more if people bid me up just b/c it's early. Might be better just to totally wait on him until nearly everyone has a QB.

[BingoBrown 8]

I'm not sure it devalues the primary RB. That depends on the situation. For example, with Frank Gore, everyone knows his age and his production is pretty constant at the low RB1, high RB2 level. I don't think most owners are going to get overly concerned about handcuffing him with Hyde as they will just look to have sufficient depth to offset that loss. Now with Charles, the handcuff is a little more attractive because he has gone out for a full season in the past, and if that happens you are losing arguably the #1 player in your league. But say you grab Davis early. How much does it really devalue Charles? Certainly McCoy and Peterson become more attractive, but are you going to now spend more on Matt Forte than Charles because you can't back him up with Knile Davis (injury prone in his own right)

 

I think you may be over thinking the value of the handcuff. I agree that pretty much anyone you throw out early can usually be had at some discount because owners are hesitant to overpay when they still need to fill their entire team, but I'm not sure that is any more specific to handcuff players than to any player.

 

You may be right, it may not play out as well as imagined. But while it may not devalue the primary RB much, if at all, at the very least you should avoid having people bid you up on the handcuff you want. If you wait until the end to get the handcuff, people will know you want that player, and may bid you up to force you to spend a few extra dollars. Say, Knile Davis for $1 early, instead of Knile Davis for $3 late. Not much of a difference, but if it also helps you land a several dollar discount on Jamaal Charles, then you're looking at some decent savings.

 

Regarding the Frank Gore/Carlos Hyde handcuff, I personally find that to be a very attractive handcuff option. The 49ers are a run first team, and Hyde is now the clear handcuff due to the injuries sustained by the 49ers RB corps. Add in Frank Gore's age and mileage, and I think Carlos Hyde is a must-own for Gore owners. Should be a lock for RB2 value with RB1 upside at a pretty reasonable price.

[TheUsualSuspect 207]

 

He could almost go for more if people bid me up just b/c it's early. Might be better just to totally wait on him until nearly everyone has a QB.

This. Nominating low to middle tier guys early will typically cause that player to be overvalued.

[shutdown 40]

 

You may be right, it may not play out as well as imagined. But while it may not devalue the primary RB much, if at all, at the very least you should avoid having people bid you up on the handcuff you want. If you wait until the end to get the handcuff, people will know you want that player, and may bid you up to force you to spend a few extra dollars. Say, Knile Davis for $1 early, instead of Knile Davis for $3 late. Not much of a difference, but if it also helps you land a several dollar discount on Jamaal Charles, then you're looking at some decent savings.

 

Regarding the Frank Gore/Carlos Hyde handcuff, I personally find that to be a very attractive handcuff option. The 49ers are a run first team, and Hyde is now the clear handcuff due to the injuries sustained by the 49ers RB corps. Add in Frank Gore's age and mileage, and I think Carlos Hyde is a must-own for Gore owners. Should be a lock for RB2 value with RB1 upside at a pretty reasonable price.

I guess my definition of handcuff is a bit different. In your original post, you mentioned J. Bell. I don't view Bell as a handcuff, I think he has value on his own merit. I actually rank Bell ahead of Bush in my rankings. Hyde isn't quite that valuable, but he's closer. In other words, I think Hyde will have some value regardless of Gore playing the full season or not, so to me he's going to be more than a $1 flyer at the end of the draft. Knile Davis is a player I consider a true handcuff. i.e. no real value unless Charles gets hurt. Personally I would bid on Hyde regardless of who owned Gore. I wouldn't say that about Davis. I think most owners see it this way so you'll have competition for Hyde where as only the J. Charles owner is really going to bid up Knile Davis.

[tanatastic 2,062]

Auction is all about the mindscrew. You could nominate christine michael first and youd have a bidding war. Toss out a guy like Gerhart first and someone will spend top 5 rb money on him just cuz hes out there and they liked him and its the only action going on at that moment.

[Matt Mueller 148]

Auction is all about the mindscrew. You could nominate christine michael first and youd have a bidding war. Toss out a guy like Gerhart first and someone will spend top 5 rb money on him just cuz hes out there and they liked him and its the only action going on at that moment.

 

Agreed. Who are some other top mindscrew guys to toss out early?

 

Looking for guys the market will pay for that you don't necessarily want.

[TheUsualSuspect 207]

 

Agreed. Who are some other top mindscrew guys to toss out early?

 

Looking for guys the market will pay for that you don't necessarily want.

Manziel, Watkins, Sankey...Huge unknowns (rookie)

 

MJD/McFadden, Vereen/Ridley, Ingram/Thomas/Khiry... Timeshare unknowns

 

Any kicker... Because kickers should never go for more than $1

 

Any Top Defense... Some managers do not know how to value an entire team, rather than just one individual player.

[Fantasy Fiend 38]

 

He could almost go for more if people bid me up just b/c it's early. Might be better just to totally wait on him until nearly everyone has a QB.

 

 

This. Nominating low to middle tier guys early will typically cause that player to be overvalued.

 

^^This^^ - In most cases. In the case of Cutler any / all mocks I have conducted when he is put up early he is being overvalued. Bidding has bumped up to $6-$8 from all the hype. When he is nominated mid-late he is typically averaging $1-$3.

[Groundhog 24]

let's say you buy Knile Davis for $1 or $2. Then every other owner also knows that Charles is going to be worth more to you than to anyone else. If someone else then brings up Charles early in the action, with plenty of dollars still on the table, they can bid you up to spend more than you want to. Question is, would you play along and keep out-bidding, or let them have their fun and you're left with trade bait or an injury bargaining chip.

[Serpent 51]

 

Agreed. Who are some other top mindscrew guys to toss out early?

 

Looking for guys the market will pay for that you don't necessarily want.

 

There's usually a crappy player that has the same name as an elite player. I haven't done auction for years, but I remember there being a crappy Adrian Peterson. And when that fails just try to get at least the same last name. There's a bunch of that too.

[tanatastic 2,062]

Thing about auction is that you can prey upon human nature to jump on the first action. With all their money, people will bid on things they have no business bidding on. Kickers go for a buck right? But I bet you if you throw out someone like gostkowski as the first player nominated, a small bidding war will happen just because people are eager to throw cash around. nominate Carlos Hyde first and all hell will break loose with people bidding him up big time. Throw out jordan reed and you will see people bidding on him like he was julius thomas, just because everyone has all their shiny money and they feel at that point its unlimited. Then by the end of the draft you can toss out the rb2 and 3s you really want and no one will have the cash to get them after blowing it all on worthless sleepers.

 

My point is, the op idea wont work because those guys your trying to grab early and cheap will be bid on aggressively due to human nature of jumping on any and all early action.

[giraldi02 476]

I landed the first pick in my auction draft. The mental mind-floss is outstanding.

 

I've narrowed my first nomination to Carlos Hyde, Seattle D, Matt Prater, Peyton Manning, Nick Foles, and Colin Kaepernick(league is half 49ers fans)

[TheUsualSuspect 207]

I've narrowed my first nomination to Carlos Hyde, Seattle D, Matt Prater, Peyton Manning, Nick Foles, and Colin Kaepernick(league is half 49ers fans)

Perfect. First Go SEA Def, and prepared to me mind blown... Then go SF for the next 4-5 nominations... Then go with guys that hold value that you actually like. Have fun, let us know your results.

[WhiteWonder 2,869]

i've found that most auction draft strategies are just nonsense that sometimes works and sometimes doesn't based on who you draft with. so nominating that 'sleeper' of yours early and thinking you'll get a value only works if hes on no ones radar or no one sees what you're doing and just bids you up.

[WhiteWonder 2,869]

Thing about auction is that you can prey upon human nature to jump on the first action. With all their money, people will bid on things they have no business bidding on. Kickers go for a buck right? But I bet you if you throw out someone like gostkowski as the first player nominated, a small bidding war will happen just because people are eager to throw cash around. nominate Carlos Hyde first and all hell will break loose with people bidding him up big time. Throw out jordan reed and you will see people bidding on him like he was julius thomas, just because everyone has all their shiny money and they feel at that point its unlimited. Then by the end of the draft you can toss out the rb2 and 3s you really want and no one will have the cash to get them after blowing it all on worthless sleepers.

 

My point is, the op idea wont work because those guys your trying to grab early and cheap will be bid on aggressively due to human nature of jumping on any and all early action.

 

again, completely specific to the individual league. ive been in leagues where people are very reluctant to spend early because they are saving their $ for the studs. so sometime nominating a sleeper early nets a good value. and sometimes it works like you said.