Great to be back! My first question this year: am I crazy? Luck or Carr

[brotherbock 349]

Hey everyone, excited for the season to be starting again.

 

Here's my question to anyone who wants to give input. In a keeper league, keep max two at any position, no penalties for draft position--so only worrying about straight up future potential here--am I crazy to keep Derek Carr over Luck?

 

Last year had some good discussions about Luck here on the boards. Is his past production heavily weighted on volume, and if so, will that volume continue? He's much more mistake prone when pressed than Carr.

 

Anyway, thoughts?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Luck is better for one. For two, Lucks division is so much easier to throw against. Carr has better receivers, but I don't think that's enough to make up for division and skill.

[stonewall 647]

I was all-in on Luck last season, and because of several factors, got burned in a few leagues.

 

Most have soured on him....understandably. However, I am all-in again, and am loving his value (as compared to last season).

 

I consider him to be the most heady, skilled, and competitive QB in the league, with the possible exception of Rodgers, who also struggled mightily due to several factors.

 

If the o-line issue has been addressed and his WR's can stay reasonably healthy, then he has a real shot at being the #1 FF QB for years to come.

[weepaws 2,461]

Luck .

[tanatastic 2,061]

If you take 2wrs and 2rbs first 4 rounds and a top qb is sitting there rnd 5, take him. What I do is check for a te you really want like Olsen. Take him if hes there but if not, take the qb. If the qb is gone, dont reach, just take bpa til another value at qb pops up a couple rounds later.

[ROCKFORD 134]

try here

[brotherbock 349]

try here

 

Yeah thanks, I know the forums and their structure. I'm intending for this to be a discussion of both player's strengths, more than just "tell me who to take". So thanks, but I'll keep it right here.

[brotherbock 349]

Ah, just found the info I was looking for from last year, BattleshipLorenzan giving me some schooling about DVOA and the new QBR system. Carr was much better last year from those metrics than Luck was the year before (not last year, which obviously wasn't good for Luck). I just didn't like Luck's decision-making when things weren't going perfect for him last year.

[Scothawk 2]

In dynasty Ive been buying Carr all off season. Great value and many years of scoring production to come at a far lesser price than Luck.

 

In redraft that would be a coin toss for me. I might actually edge it to Luck based on the factors detailed in posts above.

[R8RMick 242]

Luck's offensive line may get him killed, considering his style of play. Don't understand how a team can spend a ga-zillion on a franchise QB and put him behind that crap. Pearls before swine.

 

On the other hand, Carr's offensive line is the best pass - blocking unit in the AFC and probably the best flat out anyway.

[weepaws 2,461]

Big Ben as done pretty good playing behind a poor o line .

[R8RMick 242]

Big Ben as done pretty good playing behind a poor o line .

Tackling Ben is like tackling a telephone pole, he's one tough dude. But check his injury report he's missed time as well.

[SpenceToons 70]

Another way to look at the improvements that OAK has made to its O-line and also its defense is to project that the Raiders might have the luxury of calling more running plays this year and that Carr's volume might suffer.

 

In Luck's last good year in 2014, the Colts ran a lot of two TE sets and Allen and Fleener did have their moments from time to time. This year the talk is that the base set is going to be three WRs with Hilton, Moncrief, and Dorsett. I would think that the explosiveness potential for Luck would be increased under this latter scenario.

[R8RMick 242]

Another way to look at the improvements that OAK has made to its O-line and also its defense is to project that the Raiders might have the luxury of calling more running plays this year and that Carr's volume might suffer.

 

In Luck's last good year in 2014, the Colts ran a lot of two TE sets and Allen and Fleener did have their moments from time to time. This year the talk is that the base set is going to be three WRs with Hilton, Moncrief, and Dorsett. I would think that the explosiveness potential for Luck would be increased under this latter scenario.

True, but if Oakland's running game cranks up he'll face more 2nd and 4 situations than 2nd and 8. This will enable the play action to become more effective. The other unit on the Raiders seeing improvement is the defense, which will not be on the field as much this year. This spells more opportunities for Carr, especially in the red zone where he was very effective.

[weepaws 2,461]

Oh sure he's missed time , but can't argue with his success playing behind some bad and often injured o lines .