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The Football Guru

Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Jordan Love, Packers

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The draft community has seemingly decided Love's 2019 somewhat disappointing season (3,402 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, FBS-high 17 interceptions) was the product of losing the bulk of his supporting cast and a coaching change after his breakout 2018 campaign (3,567-32-6). There's no question those changes affected his bottom line, but even the staunchest of his supporters would have trouble defending some of the throws he made in his final year of college. In five games against major-conference programs or conference rivals who consistently play at that level (Wake Forest, San Diego State, LSU, BYU and Boise State), Love threw for five touchdowns versus 10 interceptions. In four of those games, he passed for one score or less. There were also three times in 2019 he threw for three interceptions in a game - all of which came against the aforementioned schools - and two more times he was picked off twice.

Love is a gifted deep thrower and seems to have a solid understanding of when he can go back-shoulder on a defender. His supporters can also easily point to a large number of tight-window and/or "bucket throws" he made in 2019 and make a strong case for him enjoying success at the NFL level because he has the necessary tools. It's not as if he doesn't have considerable upside, but let's be real about his production to this point: he struggled to post a 2:1 TD-to-INT ratio during his college career at a non-power conference school and didn't fare particularly well when he got a chance to play the big boys. His skill set may scream first-round pick and rookie starter, but his 2019 tape suggests he needs a redshirt season. Fortunately, he'll get that and maybe a few more in Green Bay.

What does it mean in redraft? It goes without saying that Love isn't going to see the field in any meaningful role anytime soon as long as Aaron Rodgers is healthy and able.

What does it mean for dynasty? Love is almost certain to be a late third-round pick at best in rookie drafts, and that may only be for the Rodgers' owner in your league. (Will update again after the draft is completed.)

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Spotrac shows Rodgers' contract having an option after the 2021 season, does anyone know if that's a player or team option?

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Odds are higher he leaves the team before becoming the starter. This was simply a wasted pick.

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On 4/24/2020 at 2:11 PM, tanatastic said:

Odds are higher he leaves the team before becoming the starter. This was simply a wasted pick.

Personally, I think this pick points to the Packers moving on from Rodgers in 2 years.

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1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Personally, I think this pick points to the Packers moving on from Rodgers in 2 years.

Agreed. 

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He's not a viable fantasy option at this point. He's not going to play unless Rodgers is injured and misses games. If that happens, I'm sure he'll be a top FA pick up. So in redraft, he's not draftable.

In dynasty, I don't think he's worth selecting either. It will mean using a spot on the bench for at least two seasons and using a keeper slot on him for at least two seasons. That's just not something I would do.

In either scenario, he's just not a player to have on the roster right now.

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1 minute ago, polecatt said:

He's not a viable fantasy option at this point. He's not going to play unless Rodgers is injured and misses games. If that happens, I'm sure he'll be a top FA pick up. So in redraft, he's not draftable.

In dynasty, I don't think he's worth selecting either. It will mean using a spot on the bench for at least two seasons and using a keeper slot on him for at least two seasons. That's just not something I would do.

In either scenario, he's just not a player to have on the roster right now.

Very reasonable take.  I'd guess that for keeper/dynasty leagues, it's all about how deep your roster is.

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1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Very reasonable take.  I'd guess that for keeper/dynasty leagues, it's all about how deep your roster is.

It's about two things. How deep the rosters are and more importantly, how many keepers you have from year to year.

The dynasty leagues I play in, you have a minimum number of players you have to keep from year to year, two leagues it's eight, one is ten, one there is no minimum. There is no maximum, so you can keep your entire team if you want, but that means no draft picks. Everybody pretty much tries to get as close to the minimum as they can unless they have a loaded team, because the less you have, the better your draft picks are. So we draft from the available free agents and the rookies. The rookies are pretty much always who go first unless somebody is dropped you wouldn't expect.

The only scenarios I could see someone taking Love and keeping him is if their team is total garbage and they don't have enough good players to keep, or if the team is loaded and they don't mind giving up the draft picks/roster slots. Even then, two seasons minimum is a very long time to do that. People only seem to do that for about one season, and when they do it's a stud who has been injured. I wouldn't take Love and keep him for that long, and I don't think anyone in my leagues would either.

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