PPR: What's the best draft position this year?

[wolves111 115]

I'm picking #3 in a ppr. Looking out 5-6 rounds of the adp's picking 3rd is ok. Just ok. My concern is the seemingly high bust rate of projected top three picks each year. Swing and miss with the third pick in a serpentine format and you're hoping just to make the playoffs. 

Picking 7th looks interesting. Grab the best WR and get a RB or another WR six picks later. Or a RB drops and get two of them. There are options at seven. Picking top three really doesn't allow a lot of options unless you completely ignore the rankings and trust your own research, and take whoever you want to take. Tune it and everyone out.

What's the best draft position this year?

[weepaws 3,410]

Ignore the rankings of others, trust your own rankings, it’s what I do. 

Make your self a cheat sheet, I can help you if you would like. 

Never like drafting in the top three, I’ll take 4-5, and or late 12-14.  

Thanks. 

[AxeElf 787]

I've liked my drafts from the end of the order pretty well, but after the first couple of rounds, you kind of fall into seeking your targets, no matter where you are in the order, so for me, it's been pretty much Mahomes, Carson, Lamb/Woods, Davis, Aiyuk in Rounds 3-7, no matter who I get in the first two rounds.  Most of the time I'm coming away with a RB/WR combo in the 1st and 2nd, like Mixon and Adams, from the late draft positions, although one time I was able to swing Hill and Adams from the 9 slot.

Having the #3 pick means that you are very likely going to be able to draft the #1 RB for 2021, Derrick Henry, with your first pick--so that's an extra perk of picking third this year.  I don't know how many teams are in your league, but your 2nd round pick will probly be one of the top WRs like Hopkins/Ridley/Jefferson or something like that.

But we all can't be as lucky as you and get pick #3, so for the rest of us, the end of the order is probably better.

[tanatastic 2,062]

I much prefer middle or end rather than early. Your top 3 pick will prob bust and you get a much better 2nd rounder later which is really important imo. Tier your RBs and try to get the guy at the end of your highest tier. So for example if I think there are 5 great RBs I would rather draft at 5 than 1. 
 

Last season I was hell bent on Dalvin Cook and wouldn’t touch CMC with a 10 foot pole. I drew pick 3 and traded back to 5 and took Dalvin, who I would have taken at 3 with no hesitation anyway. Draft went CMC (bust), Zeke (Bust), Barkley (Bust), Thomas (Bust), Cook (me.).

[wolves111 115]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Ignore the rankings of others, trust your own rankings, it’s what I do. 

Make your self a cheat sheet, I can help you if you would like. 

Never like drafting in the top three, I’ll take 4-5, and or late 12-14.  

Thanks. 

Yeah I still do the cheat sheets by hand. Being doing them since 1994 when I took Elway and Rodney Hampton with my first two picks. Humble beginnings until I parlayed it into a ff radio gig at WBCB (Merrill Reese station in Levittown). My co-host and cousin later pirated my one hour a week show and merged with Tim McManus at ESPN radio for a decade. Fked me good.

Anyway as much as I trust my own rankings there's always an opportunity to meet guys like you and Axelf that are knowledgeable and put the time in. Can always learn something from everybody, right?

[weepaws 3,410]

3 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

Yeah I still do the cheat sheets by hand. Being doing them since 1994 when I took Elway and Rodney Hampton with my first two picks. Humble beginnings until I parlayed it into a ff radio gig at WBCB (Merrill Reese station in Levittown). My co-host and cousin later pirated my one hour a week show and merged with Tim McManus at ESPN radio for a decade. Fked me good.

Anyway as much as I trust my own rankings there's always an opportunity to meet guys like you and Axelf that are knowledgeable and put the time in. Can always learn something from everybody, right?

So you had a ff radio gig huh , hey I find that really cool, sorry about what happen to you. 

I always trust my personal rankings, but I do use ADP for leverage when I’m using  my own personal ranking, helps me to gage what others might be thinking . 

 

[AxeElf 787]

10 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

guys like you and Axelf that are knowledgeable

There goes your credibility.

And if you ever put me and weepaws in the same sentence again, I will make you draft Josh Gordon.

[wolves111 115]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

I've liked my drafts from the end of the order pretty well, but after the first couple of rounds, you kind of fall into seeking your targets, no matter where you are in the order, so for me, it's been pretty much Mahomes, Carson, Lamb/Woods, Davis, Aiyuk in Rounds 3-7, no matter who I get in the first two rounds.  Most of the time I'm coming away with a RB/WR combo in the 1st and 2nd, like Mixon and Adams, from the late draft positions, although one time I was able to swing Hill and Adams from the 9 slot.

Having the #3 pick means that you are very likely going to be able to draft the #1 RB for 2021, Derrick Henry, with your first pick--so that's an extra perk of picking third this year.  I don't know how many teams are in your league, but your 2nd round pick will probly be one of the top WRs like Hopkins/Ridley/Jefferson or something like that.

But we all can't be as lucky as you and get pick #3, so for the rest of us, the end of the order is probably better.

Yeah it's 10 teams so the available talents extends into rds 4-5 typically. I start taking lottery tickets around the 8-9th rd, players I feel will outperform their rankings. Grabbed some good ones over the years. Grabbed more failures than successes but it only takes a couple to pay off.

[wolves111 115]

9 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

There goes your credibility.

And if you ever put me and weepaws in the same sentence again, I will make you draft Josh Gordon.

I've been following the banter the last couple of years. Somehow you two manage to keep it somewhat civil despite the obvious antipathy.

[AxeElf 787]

Just now, wolves111 said:

I've been following the banter the last couple of years. Somehow you two manage to keep it somewhat civil despite the obvious antipathy.

I have totally sworn off responding to his nonsense.  it was kind of like playing chess with a pigeon.

[wolves111 115]

49 minutes ago, tanatastic said:

I much prefer middle or end rather than early. Your top 3 pick will prob bust and you get a much better 2nd rounder later which is really important imo. Tier your RBs and try to get the guy at the end of your highest tier. So for example if I think there are 5 great RBs I would rather draft at 5 than 1. 
 

Last season I was hell bent on Dalvin Cook and wouldn’t touch CMC with a 10 foot pole. I drew pick 3 and traded back to 5 and took Dalvin, who I would have taken at 3 with no hesitation anyway. Draft went CMC (bust), Zeke (Bust), Barkley (Bust), Thomas (Bust), Cook (me.).

Yeah that's what I was toying with. I'm sure I'll get a trade offer for the pick. Just some due diligence...

[AxeElf 787]

Just now, wolves111 said:

I'm sure I'll get a trade offer for the pick.

Well, do NOT take it, if you get an offer.  Starting Henry/Hopkins is about as good as it gets, and after that, your draft position doesn't really matter all that much anyway.

[wolves111 115]

1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

I have totally sworn off responding to his nonsense.  it was kind of like playing chess with a pigeon.

I get it. Like washing your feet with your socks on.

[Bills04 66]

*** when preparing your draft sheet - include the Default Rankings for your site, if drafting on-line.  If there's someone you really want, gives you an idea of when to take him (e.g., if otherwise gone by your next pick, for auto-drafters).

 

[AxeElf 787]

We don't need no stinking autodrafters.

[weepaws 3,410]

7 hours ago, wolves111 said:

Yeah I still do the cheat sheets by hand. Being doing them since 1994 when I took Elway and Rodney Hampton with my first two picks. Humble beginnings until I parlayed it into a ff radio gig at WBCB (Merrill Reese station in Levittown). My co-host and cousin later pirated my one hour a week show and merged with Tim McManus at ESPN radio for a decade. Fked me good.

Anyway as much as I trust my own rankings there's always an opportunity to meet guys like you and Axelf that are knowledgeable and put the time in. Can always learn something from everybody, right?

Naw don’t listen to me, we have the Football Guru that visits this site, now listen to him. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,677]

13 hours ago, tanatastic said:

I much prefer middle or end rather than early. Your top 3 pick will prob bust and you get a much better 2nd rounder later which is really important imo. Tier your RBs and try to get the guy at the end of your highest tier. So for example if I think there are 5 great RBs I would rather draft at 5 than 1. 
 

Last season I was hell bent on Dalvin Cook and wouldn’t touch CMC with a 10 foot pole. I drew pick 3 and traded back to 5 and took Dalvin, who I would have taken at 3 with no hesitation anyway. Draft went CMC (bust), Zeke (Bust), Barkley (Bust), Thomas (Bust), Cook (me.).

Yup, agreed.

[polecatt 488]

I always think 1st overall is the best place to pick. That's the only time you get choice of any player you want. Take whoever it is you think will be the most valuable and go from there.

After 1st, I would say it's last, at least in a snake draft. Either way, you should be able to get a leg up on most other teams.

I prefer to have back to back picks or picks very close together. It just seems to be easier to make decisions that way, because I know I have another pick very soon, or not for a long time.

I hate picking in the middle. Never know what's coming or going there. The absolute worst is the late middle. It's like the worst of all worlds.

[AxeElf 787]

10 minutes ago, polecatt said:

I prefer to have back to back picks or picks very close together. It just seems to be easier to make decisions that way, because I know I have another pick very soon, or not for a long time.

I hate picking in the middle. Never know what's coming or going there. The absolute worst is the late middle. It's like the worst of all worlds.

There are pros and cons.  If you're in the middle of the draft order, it's easier to respond to trends (either in conforming to them or going against them).  So like if you're waiting until your next pick to take a QB, and suddenly a QB run starts, you may be watching 5 or 6 QBs come off the board before your next turn if you're picking on the corners--but if your picks are more evenly spaced, you may only see 2 or 3 come off the board before your next turn.

But corner picks are fun.  You get to pick two players in a row, and then you have time to go make an omelette before your next pick.

Of course, advanced players just auction draft, rendering draft order meaningless.

[weepaws 3,410]

21 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

There are pros and cons.  If you're in the middle of the draft order, it's easier to respond to trends (either in conforming to them or going against them).  So like if you're waiting until your next pick to take a QB, and suddenly a QB run starts, you may be watching 5 or 6 QBs come off the board before your next turn if you're picking on the corners--but if your picks are more evenly spaced, you may only see 2 or 3 come off the board before your next turn.

But corner picks are fun.  You get to pick two players in a row, and then you have time to go make an omelette before your next pick.

Of course, elementary players just auction draft, rendering draft order meaningless.

Fixed.  

Thanks. 

[weepaws 3,410]

31 minutes ago, polecatt said:

I always think 1st overall is the best place to pick. That's the only time you get choice of any player you want. Take whoever it is you think will be the most valuable and go from there.

After 1st, I would say it's last, at least in a snake draft. Either way, you should be able to get a leg up on most other teams.

I prefer to have back to back picks or picks very close together. It just seems to be easier to make decisions that way, because I know I have another pick very soon, or not for a long time.

I hate picking in the middle. Never know what's coming or going there. The absolute worst is the late middle. It's like the worst of all worlds.

Never have I liked drafting first, don’t like the late return in round two.  

[AxeElf 787]

On 6/21/2021 at 4:00 PM, wolves111 said:

I'm picking #3 in a [10-team] ppr.

You lucky bastid.  By coincidence, I happened to land the #3 slot in my $20 Best Ball Championship snake draft tonight.  Now, there are a couple of differences--being best-ball format, the strategy is a little different, and it's a 24 round draft, so there are a lot more sleepers picked--but the first half of the draft should be pretty similar to what you're looking at.

The #3 draft slot is the highest draft position I have had in any of the 8 BBC drafts I have done so far; in fact, there's only been one other in the top half of the order--and that was where I was able to land Henry at #4.

But that draft was about a month ago, and I was a little apprehensive that things weren't going to work out as well in this draft as they did in that one.  From the #4, I'd gotten Hopkins in Round 2, but I wasn't at all sure he would be there at 2.8.  I was still able to get away with snagging Mahomes in the third the first time, because Chris Carson fell to 4.7...  but I was pretty sure that was not going to be the case now.  I also thought I would be in an awkward position to try to draft another of my RB values, Mike Davis, because 4.8/5.3 still seemed a little early for him--but he wasn't going to make it back to me at 6.8--and on top of that, I still had a shot at guys like Lamb and Golladay at that turn.  So what, try to start RB/RB with someone like Ekeler or Akers?  Meh, I don't really like either of them, not over Hopkins or a few of the other WRs going late in the 2nd.

So yeah, I was a little apprehensive.

Obviously, I got Henry at #3, and then watched in horror as Hopkins, Ekeler, and Akers were all taken in the first four picks of Round 2.  But thanks to that, plus the selection of Diggs at 2.6 and the completely boneheaded selection of Clyde Edwards-Freaking-Helaire at 2.5, both Davante Adams and Joe Mixon were still on the board going into pick 2.7, with me waiting to snap up the table scraps at 2.8.  I would have been happy with either, really, but I was most content that it was Adams he chose, leaving me Mixon.  So I got to start RB/RB after all, relieving the pressure of trying to get Carson and/or Davis to back up Henry, and freeing me to pursue Lamb and Golladay at 4.8 and 5.3, respectively (after my traditional Mahomes in the third, of course).

At that point, I was really happy.  Two players #1 at their positions (Mahomes and Henry), with another top 10 RB and two top tennish WRs?  Fuhgeddaboudit.  And then I added Thielen and Aiyuk at the next turn (6.8 and 7.3) and I'm loving my WRs.  The guy who picks after me in the even rounds is now fuming.  "ONE away from Mixon in the 2nd!" he types.  "ONE away from Lamb in the 4th!" he continues.  "And ONE away from Thielen in the 6th!" he concludes; "I never want to draft next to you again!"

"I'll admit, you have taste," I said.  But now it's time to think about backing up Henry and Mixon...  so I spent the next three picks on RBs.

I was really surprised that Mostert and Sermon lasted deep into the 8th, so I thought I would try the coup of drafting them both at 8.8 and 9.3--but this time the guy who drafted after me in the 8th snapped up Sermon.  Fair enough.  Some people are taking him ahead of Mostert already anyway.  I'd rather have Mostert.  Sermon has potential, but his best games were with Oklahoma, before his knee injury.  Have you actually looked at his game logs from his year with Ohio State?  He literally had THREE good games at the end of the season.  In the other five games in which he appeared--combined--he totaled 264 yards (rushing AND receiving) with exactly ZERO TDs.  Excuse me if I'm not impressed yet.  

At least I know what I'm getting with Mostert--a guy who can score every time he touches the ball, who is currently his team's unquestioned starter.  Sermon has a shot to step in if (when) Mostert gets hurt--and I think having BOTH has great value in best-ball--but if I have to choose one, give me Mostert's upside.  

So, I failed the 49ers Daily Double, and now I'm choosing between Nyheim Hines and James Conner at 9.3.  I figured whichever one I took would not last 15 more picks until my 10.8 pick, but I went with Conner just because he was ranked higher on the RTSports draft list, and would therefore stand less of a chance of making it to the next round.  Turned out to be a solid gamble, as I was able to land Hines at 10.8 anyway.

And that takes us through 10 rounds.  I won't bore you with a play by play of the rest of the draft, but I added Jones and Goff to back up Mahomes, Latavius Murray as my RB6, high-upside WRs Mike Williams, Gabriel Davis, and Tre'Quan Smith, and of course four of my usual ragtag suspects at TE--Engram, Cook, Firkser and Uzomah.  I also drafted the Chiefs and Vikings DSTs, and the Cardinals and Vikings Ks over the last 6 rounds.

Here's a link to the full draft board to see where the other players landed and the teams that landed them.

DRAFT BOARD

Hope that helps you to feel a little more confident about having the #3 pick in your own draft.  Good luck on having an equally fortuitous outcome!

[wolves111 115]

7 hours ago, AxeElf said:

You lucky bastid.  By coincidence, I happened to land the #3 slot in my $20 Best Ball Championship snake draft tonight.  Now, there are a couple of differences--being best-ball format, the strategy is a little different, and it's a 24 round draft, so there are a lot more sleepers picked--but the first half of the draft should be pretty similar to what you're looking at.

The #3 draft slot is the highest draft position I have had in any of the 8 BBC drafts I have done so far; in fact, there's only been one other in the top half of the order--and that was where I was able to land Henry at #4.

But that draft was about a month ago, and I was a little apprehensive that things weren't going to work out as well in this draft as they did in that one.  From the #4, I'd gotten Hopkins in Round 2, but I wasn't at all sure he would be there at 2.8.  I was still able to get away with snagging Mahomes in the third the first time, because Chris Carson fell to 4.7...  but I was pretty sure that was not going to be the case now.  I also thought I would be in an awkward position to try to draft another of my RB values, Mike Davis, because 4.8/5.3 still seemed a little early for him--but he wasn't going to make it back to me at 6.8--and on top of that, I still had a shot at guys like Lamb and Golladay at that turn.  So what, try to start RB/RB with someone like Ekeler or Akers?  Meh, I don't really like either of them, not over Hopkins or a few of the other WRs going late in the 2nd.

So yeah, I was a little apprehensive.

Obviously, I got Henry at #3, and then watched in horror as Hopkins, Ekeler, and Akers were all taken in the first four picks of Round 2.  But thanks to that, plus the selection of Diggs at 2.6 and the completely boneheaded selection of Clyde Edwards-Freaking-Helaire at 2.5, both Davante Adams and Joe Mixon were still on the board going into pick 2.7, with me waiting to snap up the table scraps at 2.8.  I would have been happy with either, really, but I was most content that it was Adams he chose, leaving me Mixon.  So I got to start RB/RB after all, relieving the pressure of trying to get Carson and/or Davis to back up Henry, and freeing me to pursue Lamb and Golladay at 4.8 and 5.3, respectively (after my traditional Mahomes in the third, of course).

At that point, I was really happy.  Two players #1 at their positions (Mahomes and Henry), with another top 10 RB and two top tennish WRs?  Fuhgeddaboudit.  And then I added Thielen and Aiyuk at the next turn (6.8 and 7.3) and I'm loving my WRs.  The guy who picks after me in the even rounds is now fuming.  "ONE away from Mixon in the 2nd!" he types.  "ONE away from Lamb in the 4th!" he continues.  "And ONE away from Thielen in the 6th!" he concludes; "I never want to draft next to you again!"

"I'll admit, you have taste," I said.  But now it's time to think about backing up Henry and Mixon...  so I spent the next three picks on RBs.

I was really surprised that Mostert and Sermon lasted deep into the 8th, so I thought I would try the coup of drafting them both at 8.8 and 9.3--but this time the guy who drafted after me in the 8th snapped up Sermon.  Fair enough.  Some people are taking him ahead of Mostert already anyway.  I'd rather have Mostert.  Sermon has potential, but his best games were with Oklahoma, before his knee injury.  Have you actually looked at his game logs from his year with Ohio State?  He literally had THREE good games at the end of the season.  In the other five games in which he appeared--combined--he totaled 264 yards (rushing AND receiving) with exactly ZERO TDs.  Excuse me if I'm not impressed yet.  

At least I know what I'm getting with Mostert--a guy who can score every time he touches the ball, who is currently his team's unquestioned starter.  Sermon has a shot to step in if (when) Mostert gets hurt--and I think having BOTH has great value in best-ball--but if I have to choose one, give me Mostert's upside.  

So, I failed the 49ers Daily Double, and now I'm choosing between Nyheim Hines and James Conner at 9.3.  I figured whichever one I took would not last 15 more picks until my 10.8 pick, but I went with Conner just because he was ranked higher on the RTSports draft list, and would therefore stand less of a chance of making it to the next round.  Turned out to be a solid gamble, as I was able to land Hines at 10.8 anyway.

And that takes us through 10 rounds.  I won't bore you with a play by play of the rest of the draft, but I added Jones and Goff to back up Mahomes, Latavius Murray as my RB6, high-upside WRs Mike Williams, Gabriel Davis, and Tre'Quan Smith, and of course four of my usual ragtag suspects at TE--Engram, Cook, Firkser and Uzomah.  I also drafted the Chiefs and Vikings DSTs, and the Cardinals and Vikings Ks over the last 6 rounds.

Here's a link to the full draft board to see where the other players landed and the teams that landed them.

DRAFT BOARD

Hope that helps you to feel a little more confident about having the #3 pick in your own draft.  Good luck on having an equally fortuitous outcome!

Hey that's outstanding. I really like the Hines and Connor picks especially that late. Mike Williams is also solid that late. You drafted a team that if they stay healthy will win you some coin. Of course there's no defense against injuries other than building a good bench. Even then it's a sandwich.