***Wagering thread***

[Fireballer 2,639]

Great day for squares betting sides yesterday.  Buff is really the only game that was heavily public and didn’t win.

[bostonlager 2,664]

5 minutes ago, Fireballer said:

Great day for squares betting sides yesterday.  Buff is really the only game that was heavily public and didn’t win.

Where do you go to get those figures? 

[Fireballer 2,639]

12 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Where do you go to get those figures? 

I’m making that assessment of a public team when they overwhelmingly have bets and handle.  KC, Fins, Bills, Lions all had at least 75% of both.  Fins were crazy with almost 90% of $$$ and bets.
 

Spank Odds.com

Sportbetting Dime.com

ScoresAndOdds.com

Also, there’s some guys on Twitter that are pretty reliable on their assessment of betting splits.

https://x.com/johnewing/status/1711022383971332523?s=46&t=DFWeVowvyy-F23jlecK3zw

https://x.com/bfawkes22?s=21&t=DFWeVowvyy-F23jlecK3zw

 

 

[Fireballer 2,639]

27 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Where do you go to get those figures? 

One other thing…a lot of cappers on Twitter are putting less credence in the squares vs sharps mindset. There’s so much info out there now, that the public is much sharper than they used to be.

[kilroy69 1,216]

17 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Post your plays. If you're bad enough, we will fade you. 

I am not kidding. I am going to do it starting this week. 

[kilroy69 1,216]

On 10/4/2023 at 4:59 PM, kilroy69 said:

I see some ugly games this week. Mostly low scoring. 

 

Baltimore on the under 38.5 is +190 on MGM.  The steelers may not score a single touchdown with 3 linemen out/injured and pickett hobbling.  Game ends up 21-9 in a game where Jackson scores 2 tds on the ground and edwards runs one in from like 3 yards out. 

 

Saints under 40.5. is +270. The Saints D is good enough to continue to make Jones struggle while Carr is "better" but even healthy he has looked like shitt. this game probably ends up 14-6 saints. 

Texans under 41.5 is +280 also. The texans are clicking and will likely continue to while the falcons will score a TD  it neve willr be in the game.  Game ends up 21-10 or 21-14. 

 

Cards on the under 44.5 vs the Bengals +320. Burrow has looked like trash all season and there is no reason to believe he is going to hold up any better vs an AZ team I was SURE had to be tanking. The Bengals are bad at EVERYTHING and Arizona may not be great but they likely pull out a win by a figgy because they are surprisingly NOT bad at everything. 17-14 AZ. 

 

Chiefs over 53.5 is +188 the Vikes can not get out of their own way this year and the chiefs are...well...the chiefs. Even with the scare last week. Should be a slugfest but one that the Mahomes pulls out. 

Broncos over 43.5 is +240. The Broncos D is bad. but the Jets D is not that much better. 17th vs the pass and 28th vs the run. The broncos have hit the over on 3 of 4 and R. Wilson are actually playing pretty good.  35-21

Just for reference this is how bad I did last week.  I hit the saints on the under.  I also sat Zach moss in 2 leagues. 

[BeenHereBefore 1,467]

7 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

Just for reference this is how bad I did last week.  I hit the saints on the under. 

One thing about the NFL, a team that puts up a lot of points and looks good is usually a let down the falling week. A few exceptions but a rule I try to follow.

[Fireballer 2,639]

Christian Watson over rec yards.  Line is 43.5 -130.  On DK you can do 40+ at -150 and use their 50% profit boost to get even money 

[Fireballer 2,639]

Raiders just hit -2.5.  This would normally signal money needed on GB, but GB already has the higher handle.  

[kilroy69 1,216]

Chargers over 49.5 

Cheifs over 50.5

Bills under 44.5

Lions over 43.5

 

this is what I have right now. Anyone see problems?

[bostonlager 2,664]

3 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

Chargers over 49.5 

Cheifs over 50.5

Bills under 44.5

Lions over 43.5

 

this is what I have right now. Anyone see problems?

I don't mess with totals, so I can't really say one way or the other. The reason I play props almost exclusively is because they involve way less variables. All sorts of sh1t can go wrong in those games and they end up being losers. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

Week 1: 11-7

Week 2: 7-14

Week 3: 20-11

Week 4:14-13

Week 5: 15-12

Season to date: 67-57 (.540)

I don't feel like I have a good read on the Packers or Raiders. Taking tonight off. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

Jordan Love u 32.5 pass att

[kilroy69 1,216]

I have love and Jimmy G at under 299 yards passing. 

Adams over 65

Doubs over 45

Musgrave over 25

Jacobs over 60

Watson over 35

Jimmy G TD anytime passing or running. 

 

+1650 on a 50 dollar bet is 875

[bostonlager 2,664]

4 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

I have love and Jimmy G at under 299 yards passing. 

Adams over 65

Doubs over 45

Musgrave over 25

Jacobs over 60

Watson over 35

Jimmy G TD anytime passing or running. 

 

+1650 on a 50 dollar bet is 875

I hope you win man. Did you place any individuals or just parlay?

[kilroy69 1,216]

Just a parlay. Likely none of this shitt will hit though. Jimmy G will throw 3 ints. No tds. Adams has 25 yards. Musgrave gets a concussion again. Jacobs can not manage 60 against a team allowing 150 on the ground. watson turns into dr watson, doubs hurts himself on play 2. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

12 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

Just a parlay. Likely none of this shitt will hit though. Jimmy G will throw 3 ints. No tds. Adams has 25 yards. Musgrave gets a concussion again. Jacobs can not manage 60 against a team allowing 150 on the ground. watson turns into dr watson, doubs hurts himself on play 2. 

I agree. 

It sounds like you want to get better and that is cool, but you're in for a ton of disappoint if you're focusing on parlays. The one above is all ALT lines. A true 7 -legger should pay around 90 -1 with true odds of around 127 -1. That's a nerd way of saying it will be tough to make any money betting parlays. If you're out to have some fun and some adrenaline while placing some bets then have fun. If you want to try to churn a bit of a profit you need to remember 2 rules.

1. There is no hit it big. Wagering to win is a slow and boring grind. 

2. NO PARLAYS - except the wong teasers. 

Sometime this week take a look at week 6 lines. Find all the 1.5, 2, and 2.5 underdogs (tease these up). Then find all the 7.5, 8, and 8.5 favorites (tease these down). Mix and match them all in to 2-team, 6-point teasers. Not every single one will hit, but over the course of the season you will turn a profit. I did it yesterday with IND, HOU, NO, and NYJ and it was an easy 6 units. 

Take those wong profits and start studying up on how to bet player props individually. Again, you're not going to get rich quick, but I haven't had to make a deposit into a sportsbook in over a decade (except the new books that I gained access to when Ohio went legal Jan. 1 this year)

 

[Fireballer 2,639]

5 hours ago, Fireballer said:

Raiders just hit -2.5.  This would normally signal money needed on GB, but GB already has the higher handle.  

I got no read on this game.  Line just went back to LV -1.  My gut tells me LV ML bet, but I’m not touching it.

[bostonlager 2,664]

9 hours ago, Fireballer said:

Christian Watson over rec yards.  Line is 43.5 -130.  On DK you can do 40+ at -150 and use their 50% profit boost to get even money 

Good hit 

[bostonlager 2,664]

These lady refs need to go.  

[bostonlager 2,664]

12 hours ago, bostonlager said:

Jordan Love u 32.5 pass att

Week 1: 11-7

Week 2: 7-14

Week 3: 20-11

Week 4:14-13

Week 5: 16-12

Season to date: 68-57 (.544)

[JustinCharge 2,397]

Browns QB Deshaun Watson missed monday practice. The injury seems to be way worse than they are letting on.  Head coach kevin stefanski wont even say watson will be ready to go sunday. That means rookie QB dorian thompson robinson may start vs the 49ers who are only favored by 5.5 points.  Maybe some of you want to consider hammering that before it goes to 10.5.  
 

 

[bostonlager 2,664]

30 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

Browns QB Deshaun Watson missed monday practice. The injury seems to be way worse than they are letting on.  Head coach kevin stefanski wont even say watson will be ready to go sunday. That means rookie QB dorian thompson robinson may start vs the 49ers who are only favored by 5.5 points.  Maybe some of you want to consider hammering that before it goes to 10.5.  
 

 

Good looking out Justin. This could very well be a winner, but it breaks 3 of my wagering commandments and therefore I will have to pass. 

1. Don't bet sides or totals

2. Don't give points on the road

3. Don't bet west coast teams coming east and playing in the 1:00 slot. 

[kilroy69 1,216]

14 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Good looking out Justin. This could very well be a winner, but it breaks 3 of my wagering commandments and therefore I will have to pass. 

1. Don't bet sides or totals. This I understand

2. Don't give points on the road. This I typically understand but man have you seen the 9ers? They are a fuckinggg force. 

3. Don't bet west coast teams coming east and playing in the 1:00 slot. See above. 

 

[bostonlager 2,664]

15 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

2. Don't give points on the road. This I typically understand but man have you seen the 9ers? They are a fuckinggg force. 

3. Don't bet west coast teams coming east and playing in the 1:00 slot. See above. 

The 49ers could very well win this game 50-0, but sh1t can happen in the NFL.-Injuries, fluke turnovers, etc.  Especially on the road and against a good defensive team like Cleveland. Not a game I want to risk my money on. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

There's a trillion or so light bulbs in the middle of the desert in Nevada. The guys who put those lights there, likely want you to bet San Francisco this weekend. 

[kilroy69 1,216]

1 minute ago, bostonlager said:

There a trillion or so light bulbs in the middle of the desert in Nevada. The guys who put those lights there, likely want you to bet San Francisco this weekend. 

Ooooo I can play this too. Mares eat oats and does eat oats and I'll be home for christmas. 

 

Wait I thought we were saying things no one else would understand. No?

[bostonlager 2,664]

1 minute ago, kilroy69 said:

Ooooo I can play this too. Mares eat oats and does eat oats and I'll be home for christmas. 

 

Wait I thought we were saying things no one else would understand. No?

Projections I'm seeing now have this as an 8 point game. Projections are like butttholes - they usually stink, but laying 5.5 is too rich for my blood on a side bet. I'll have a full slate of props though. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

@Fireballer Let us know when you get some figures on what percentage of money and bets are on the 49ers this weekend. Thanks in advance. 

[kilroy69 1,216]

1 minute ago, bostonlager said:

Projections I'm seeing now have this as an 8 point game. Projections are like butttholes - they usually stink, but laying 5.5 is too rich for my blood on a side bet. I'll have a full slate of props though. 

I do not understand about the lights though. 

[GutterBoy 2,898]

1 minute ago, bostonlager said:

@Fireballer Let us know when you get some figures on what percentage of money and bets are on the 49ers this weekend. Thanks in advance. 

Currently SF is getting 85% of the bets and 70% of the money.

Opened at -1, currently at -5

[bostonlager 2,664]

3 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

I do not understand about the lights though. 

Las Vegas most likely wants you to bet SF this weekend. Smells like a trap game. 

[kilroy69 1,216]

2 minutes ago, bostonlager said:

Las Vegas most likely wants you to bet SF this weekend. Smells like a trap game. 

what if it does move to  -10.5. Would -5.5 be a deal then? I appreciate your responses and letting me pick your brain. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

Just now, kilroy69 said:

what if it does move to  -10.5. Would -5.5 be a deal then?

If I was going to bet this game at all -I would wait to see if it gets to 10.5 and take Cleveland. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

My first bet for SF/CLE is Jerome Ford u 41.5 rushing yards or whatever they set his line at when props are released. 

[JustinCharge 2,397]

2 hours ago, bostonlager said:

If I was going to bet this game at all -I would wait to see if it gets to 10.5 and take Cleveland. 

Makes sense

[kilroy69 1,216]

39 minutes ago, JustinCharge said:

Makes sense

Maybe this is why I need help. It does not make sense to me at all. I can not possibly imagine a scenario in which the browns can come close to being able to keep a 1 score game. Barring injury to both purdy and mccaffery. 

[kilroy69 1,216]

Line on the browns game dropped to  san fran -6

[bostonlager 2,664]

2 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

Maybe this is why I need help. It does not make sense to me at all. I can not possibly imagine a scenario in which the browns can come close to being able to keep a 1 score game. Barring injury to both purdy and mccaffery. 

Did you see a scenario where a Zach Wilson led Jets team would keep it to a 3 point game against KC a couple weeks ago?

Did you see an 8 point dog Colts team beating Baltimore on the road?

Again - The 49ers could very well beat them by 50. If they were at home, I would maybe bet them .I don't like road favorites though. San Francisco is not going undefeated and they are off a huge win again a rival which is perfect for a let down game. Go back a page or 2 and see what I posted about the Jacksonville/Buffalo game this past week. Possible same scenario. 

[bostonlager 2,664]

Don't let me talk you out of betting the 9ers. I'm just saying I wouldn't do it, but I have a 45% chance of being wrong.