Stock Market bubble - will burst - it did, and recovered twice. ***Official thread***

[Horseman 2,756]

Just now, easilyscan said:

Less ventured, less gained!

But seriously, I suppose we could include screen caps of the holdings in each of the accounts. 

I can go first if you want as an example.  We don't need individual holdings, but, that might be fun too.  

I'm just saying in retirement I'm 30% fixed income.  You wouldn't expect that to return as much as thegeneral's account which is 5% (but I bet it does) .  And he's including contributions.  Just trying to get it apples to apples as much as possible.   

[thegeneral 3,728]

5 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

you have no hope. 

I think my house alone has you covered renter!

[BiffTannen 1,278]

8 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

You are saying beyond maxing out 401k with catchup and my personal IRA out additional money into the post tax option?

You can’t do catch up unless you are 50. You’re not that old are you?

[Horseman 2,756]

Just now, thegeneral said:

I like my toys too much. My golf too much. My vacations too much. I feel like I already save enough

I do need to shift more to personal IRA that I can get at before retiring age though. 

It's a choice for sure, but at some point you realize THE GOAL is to be able to wake up each day and do whatever the fok you want to.  And time is ticking, the go-go years go away a lot faster than you think.  

The After Tax 401k rolls into your personal Roth IRA, tax free forever thereafter.  

[easilyscan 1,092]

3 minutes ago, Horseman said:

I can go first if you want as an example.

Sure

[thegeneral 3,728]

1 minute ago, BiffTannen said:

You can’t do catch up unless you are 50. You’re not that old are you?

I’m 52, sonny!

[seafoam1 3,535]

3 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

I think my house alone has you covered renter!

That's your problem, your thinking "ability". 

[BiffTannen 1,278]

Just now, thegeneral said:

I’m 52, sonny!

Oh, sh1t. My bad. I thought you were younger than me for some reason. 

[Horseman 2,756]

2 minutes ago, BiffTannen said:

Oh, sh1t. My bad. I thought you were younger than me for some reason. 

It's because he acts like he hasnt grown up yet, most of the time.  

[thegeneral 3,728]

Just now, Horseman said:

It's a choice for sure, but at some point you realize THE GOAL is to be able to wake up each day and do whatever the fok you want to.  And time is ticking, the go-go years go away a lot faster than you think.  

The After Tax 401k rolls into your personal Roth IRA, tax free forever thereafter.  

It’s a fine line. I want to be able to do now with friends and the lady. Am healthy now outside a back which just started doing things in past year and that is an eye opener.

i have the money I put away and feel like it’s a good amount. I can always do it smarter though and I do thank you or anyone else for advice in this area.

[thegeneral 3,728]

6 minutes ago, BiffTannen said:

Oh, sh1t. My bad. I thought you were younger than me for some reason. 

Lol nope. I’m old as sht

[thegeneral 3,728]

7 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

That's your problem, your thinking "ability". 

It means if I wanted to quit and move to your shithole and work at the post office I could do it tomorrow. HTH

[seafoam1 3,535]

10 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

I’m 52, sonny!

And I was able to retire by then. 

And you peons boast about wealth. 

Too bad sad sack. 

[seafoam1 3,535]

2 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

It means if I wanted to quit and move to your shithole and work at the post office I could do it tomorrow. HTH

You are so desperate. 

[Horseman 2,756]

2 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

It’s a fine line. I want to be able to do now with friends and the lady. Am healthy now outside a back which just started doing things in past year and that is an eye opener.

i have the money I put away and feel like it’s a good amount. I can always do it smarter though and I do thank you or anyone else for advice in this area.

How close are you to the 4% rule? 

Now I know your age it's easy to project a spending plan and how much you'd need to put away to retire at 55, 60, 62, 65 etc.  

4% is 25 times your yearly spend.  All I need is "I have 20x my yearly spend" for example.  

[Horseman 2,756]

18 minutes ago, easilyscan said:

Sure

3 financial days left in 2025?   I'll try to have something by Friday.  

[thegeneral 3,728]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

How close are you to the 4% rule? 

Now I know your age it's easy to project a spending plan and how much you'd need to put away to retire at 55, 60, 62, 65 etc.  

4% is 25 times your yearly spend.  All I need is "I have 20x my yearly spend" for example.  

I mean what people spend per year is dictated quite a bit by what they save

If I go with the calculator the retirement site has and with that I’m around 23 times the yearly spend they have set:

I enjoy many parts of my job so will keep stacking the paper.

[thegeneral 3,728]

8 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

You are so desperate. 

Go deliver some catalogues, son! 

[seafoam1 3,535]

Just now, thegeneral said:

Go deliver some catalogues, son! 

You are still working 40 hours in your 50s. 

[thegeneral 3,728]

3 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

You are still working 40 hours in your 50s. 

My job is pretty sweet, when I quit this one I won’t be delivering junk mail

[seafoam1 3,535]

Just now, thegeneral said:

My job is pretty sweet, when I quit this one I won’t be delivering junk mail

Thanks for your support of my health insurance. 

For me having worked 10 hours this month. Full coverage. And I don't even need the support. 

Living large while you ask for advice from strangers on the internet. 

[thegeneral 3,728]

7 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

Thanks for your support of my health insurance. 

For me having worked 10 hours this month. Full coverage. And I don't even need the support. 

Living large while you ask for advice from strangers on the internet. 

I’m not asking for advice. I am conversating with a poster who is very interested in this subject matter.

You lack normal people skills so I have to explain this to you like an alien. 

I am glad you are scamming an org that is losing billions in tax payer dollars to get free health care, shocked that your hero Donald allows this TBH. Seems more like a lib thing. Better hope no one at the post office says mean things about him

[Horseman 2,756]

14 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

I mean what people spend per year is dictated quite a bit by what they save

If I go with the calculator the retirement site has and with that I’m around 23 times the yearly spend they have set:

I enjoy many parts of my job so will keep stacking the paper.

Yearly spend they set?  

Step1 - You need to know your yearly spend, exactly and on what.  I've tracked every dime for almost a decade now.  There are only two buckets, save or spend. If you don't save it, you spend it.   

What I'm suggesting is that you understand exactly what your "toys and vacations" and all other discretionary spending does to your possible retirement dates.  Then you have an informed decision on whether to save or spend.  Too many people just say they love their job and keep working not even knowing they might be able to retire today. I promise no matter how much you love your job, you'd love being financially independent better.  

[thegeneral 3,728]

1 minute ago, Horseman said:

Yearly spend they set?  

Step1 - You need to know your yearly spend, exactly and on what.  I've tracked every dime for almost a decade now.  There are only two buckets, save or spend. If you don't save it, you spend it.   

What I'm suggesting is that you understand exactly what your "toys and vacations" and all other discretionary spending does to your possible retirement dates.  Then you have an informed decision on whether to save or spend.  Too many people just say they love their job and keep working not even knowing they might be able to retire today. I promise no matter how much you love your job, you'd love being financially independent better.  

Yeah they set it based on salary. I moved the number higher than that with some of the tools they provide and set it at 60. If that all works I’ll be very set, moreso than I would ever have counted on. There’s also the wife who makes bank. The house. And god forbid inheritance but hopefully both are parents live forever and spend all the money they made living it up.

I am no where near this organized. It’s just reality.

I don’t mind my job TBH. Maybe in few more years not so much but it provides opportunities that I wouldn’t be able to do without hitting the lotto or having serious, serious coin. So all good for now. It is good to have options however and moving more money into as things I could access now versus 59.5 is good to have. I should do more of that and less of the 401k stuff at this point with the money I am setting aside. 

[seafoam1 3,535]

15 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

 I am conversating with a poster 

No wonder why you are broke. 

[BiffTannen 1,278]

1 hour ago, Horseman said:

It's because he acts like he hasnt grown up yet, most of the time.  

EdEx starts in 3 weeks. You better be in. 

[Horseman 2,756]

5 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Yeah they set it based on salary. I moved the number higher than that with some of the tools they provide and set it at 60. If that all works I’ll be very set, moreso than I would ever have counted on. There’s also the wife who makes bank. The house. And god forbid inheritance but hopefully both are parents live forever and spend all the money they made living it up.

I am no where near this organized. It’s just reality.

I don’t mind my job TBH. Maybe in few more years not so much but it provides opportunities that I wouldn’t be able to do without hitting the lotto or having serious, serious coin. So all good for now. It is good to have options however and moving more money into as things I could access now versus 59.5 is good to have. I should do more of that and less of the 401k stuff at this point with the money I am setting aside. 

Ok. Being conservative is smart. So is not counting on inheritance.  

Maybe it's the engineer in me that demands I know things precisely.  But, even if you love your job and planned to never "retire", imagine the power you have just knowing you could for sure very comfortably.  You get a new boss you don't like. Your back makes it harder. Your wife really wants to spend 3 months in Bora Bora.  That my friend is "financial independence".  

I started to not like my job towards the end.  They asked and I thought about it, even signed a service agreement, to keep consulting. As many or as few hours as I wanted. A year later and it's been zero hours and I couldn't imagine jumping back into it. Fok that, living life however I want is too good.  

[Horseman 2,756]

7 minutes ago, BiffTannen said:

EdEx starts in 3 weeks. You better be in. 

3 weeks!!!!! . Has Ed quit yet?

If you need me for 12 (I dont like odd numbers) and the crybabies haven't got me suspended I probably will.  

[BiffTannen 1,278]

Just now, Horseman said:

3 weeks!!!!! . Has Ed quit yet?

If you need me for 12 (I dont like odd numbers) and the crybabies haven't got me suspended I probably will.  

Ed quitting  after the Players is where the smart money is being put down. 

[thegeneral 3,728]

21 minutes ago, Horseman said:

Ok. Being conservative is smart. So is not counting on inheritance.  

Maybe it's the engineer in me that demands I know things precisely.  But, even if you love your job and planned to never "retire", imagine the power you have just knowing you could for sure very comfortably.  You get a new boss you don't like. Your back makes it harder. Your wife really wants to spend 3 months in Bora Bora.  That my friend is "financial independence".  

I started to not like my job towards the end.  They asked and I thought about it, even signed a service agreement, to keep consulting. As many or as few hours as I wanted. A year later and it's been zero hours and I couldn't imagine jumping back into it. Fok that, living life however I want is too good.  

Yeah I don’t work that way. Different strokes and all.

I do love some South Pacific, work has a 15 million dollar house on south side of Maui I get to use next June for two weeks. Flew to Sydney last year 1st class stayed on the harbor, Mexico City stayed in the St Regis. Four Seasons Toronto. New York a few times a year. SF, Chicago, Minneapolis, the occassional rando city which I enjoy seeing, I wouldn’t  be able to do that even with 3x what I have now. It’s a fun gig so I deal with some BS.

There’s no guarantees tho. Could keel over tomorrow, they could can me, the world could shut down again. So yeah it’s nice to have choices. 

As it is I’ll keep squirreling away the nickels. I put away what I consider a good amount of what I make each year and have been for 25 years or so. I have saved up what by any account is a very good amount. It could always be more, but I’m not going to put away 80k a year or whatever the math was you had though, there’s just no chance. Good on you for doing this. I could always be doing it smarter however. There’s always room to improve in that regard.

 

 

[Horseman 2,756]

19 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

Yeah I don’t work that way. Different strokes and all.

I do love some South Pacific, work has a 15 million dollar house on south side of Maui I get to use next June for two weeks. Flew to Sydney last year 1st class stayed on the harbor, Mexico City stayed in the St Regis. Four Seasons Toronto. New York a few times a year. SF, Chicago, Minneapolis, the occassional rando city which I enjoy seeing, I wouldn’t  be able to do that even with 3x what I have now. It’s a fun gig so I deal with some BS.

There’s no guarantees tho. Could keel over tomorrow, they could can me, the world could shut down again. So yeah it’s nice to have choices. 

As it is I’ll keep squirreling away the nickels. I put away what I consider a good amount of what I make each year and have been for 25 years or so. I have saved up what by any account is a very good amount. It could always be more, but I’m not going to put away 80k a year or whatever the math was you had though, there’s just no chance. Good on you for doing this. I could always be doing it smarter however. There’s always room to improve in that regard.

 

 

You absolutely could do that with 3x what you have now. And Ive given you 1 key to getting there.  Don't start talking nonsense now.  

[thegeneral 3,728]

4 minutes ago, Horseman said:

You absolutely could do that with 3x what you have now. And Ive given you 1 key to getting there.  Don't start talking nonsense now.  

So I just randomly pulled 3x out. Yes I would be quitting if I had that much saved.

The trip to Sydney alone was like 25k for 10 days. That’s doable (albeit very excessive) which is nice to think about. he Maui house is like 5k per night to rent that’s not in the equation so I will tip my hat to work and save thank you very much sirs and ladies. 

Trips to NYC and Europe are def in the cards so life is good. Fingers crossed no heart attacks or strokes and do my yoga bullshit for my L5 disc

[Horseman 2,756]

18 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

So I just randomly pulled 3x out. Yes I would be quitting if I had that much saved.

The trip to Sydney alone was like 25k for 10 days. That’s doable (albeit very excessive) which is nice to think about. he Maui house is like 5k per night to rent that’s not in the equation so I will tip my hat to work and save thank you very much sirs and ladies. 

Trips to NYC and Europe are def in the cards so life is good. Fingers crossed no heart attacks or strokes and do my yoga bullshit for my L5 disc

You said it!

You said you'd quit if you had X amount.  You don't love your job as much as you pretend.  Go get that X amount. Jesus, this isn't rocket science.  

[Horseman 2,756]

@thegeneral

Does 3x sound like a lot to you?

Rule of 72 gets you to 2x at age 59. Follow my advice and it's 3x.  Ta'da.  

Magic.  

Either way good luck. What's the saying....you can lead a horse to water.  

[thegeneral 3,728]

4 minutes ago, Horseman said:

@thegeneral

Does 3x sound like a lot to you?

Rule of 72 gets you to 2x at age 59. Follow my advise and it's 3x.  Ta'da.  

Magic.  

Either way good luck. What's the saying....you can lead a horse to water.  

Yes 3X sounds like a lot more . I also don’t want to live like a hermit for years til I’m 60 to get to this. I appreciate the various advice but also know I’m going to do lots of fun stuff between now and then and that takes money that won’t be going into a fund. Saving more is good food for thought!

[Horseman 2,756]

Just now, thegeneral said:

Yes 3X sounds like a lot more . I also don’t want to live like a hermit for years til I’m 60 to get to this. I appreciate the various advice but also know I’m going to do lots of fun stuff between now and then and that takes money that won’t be going into a fund. Saving more is good food for thought!

"Hermit" is more nonsense talk.   I said to take a look at discretionary spending. You'd be surprised, especially when you start tracking it.  

But this horse is beat to death, it ain't going to drink.  

Good luck.  

 

[thegeneral 3,728]

2 minutes ago, Horseman said:

"Hermit" is more nonsense talk.   I said to take a look at discretionary spending. You'd be surprised, especially when you start tracking it.  

But this horse is beat to death, it ain't going to drink.  

Good luck.  

 

This hermit likes to go to Napa and drink some Cabs.

Have a good evening.

[Horseman 2,756]

19 minutes ago, thegeneral said:

This hermit likes to go to Napa and drink some Cabs.

Have a good evening.

Any time. Let me know and I'll meet you there.

You're the only one with a set schedule and masters to serve.  

[nobody 2,952]

6 hours ago, Horseman said:

Yearly spend they set?  

Step1 - You need to know your yearly spend,

Critical point.  Can't set a goal without a target.

[Horseman 2,756]

17 hours ago, easilyscan said:

Sure

I'm done.  Posting early

Investment Strategy: Aggressive Retirement 75% Equities 25% Fixed Income

Asset Allocation: Varies following Investment Strategy. Some of the lower dollar amount accounts are as simple as-

55% Equity

20% International

25% Bonds

The most complicated higher dollar amount account is-

30% Large Cap

10% Mid Cap

5% Micro Cap

20% International

10% REIT

20% Bonds

5% High Yield Bonds

2025 Returns (Time-weighted TWR):

401K – 20.36%

Roth IRA(F) – 23.99%

HSA – 22.20%

Brokerage Account – 16.86%

Roth IRA(ME) – 16.63%

Wife's accounts are combined and treated as one allocation (IRA, Roth IRA and SEP) – 19.30%

Summary:

Total 2025 TWR – 19.5%

For Comparison SPX – 17.5%

Conclusion:

How does a 75-25 investment strategy beat the S&P by 2.0%? Two primary reasons:

1 – Some ill-advised timing of the market. Equities bought during the brief downturn in April. For example my cost basis of AMSN purchased in April is $176.00. That's a gain of over 30% today.

2 – Re-balancing. I re-balanced 5 times this year, 4 times during the volatility experienced in the first half of the year. Effectively increasing the number of shares all around.

If you look at the brokerage account the return is below the S&P as you'd expect. I wasn't able to sell and buy to re-balance as effectively as I did in the retirement accounts because of tax implications.

 

Cheers!