Tips to tell you where to do your research

[Ray_T 591]

hi guys,

when doing your own research, sometimes the hardest place to figure out is where to begin.

I use a couple of techniques that give me an idea of where I want to focus my efforts.

1) I like to compare ADP to fantasy football rankings.    fftoday had an article recently posted on this and now today of course I cannot find it to post a link (if someone does find it please post here)

this usually tells me where the potential bargains and overpriced players are.    I generally like the fftoday rankings but when the rankings differ from the ADP i like to do my research to figure out why.   sometimes I know before I do my research, but sometimes I need to dig to figure it out.  if a player is under rated or over rated, that can sometimes mean there is opportunity there.

2) sometimes I also like to compare ratings from different publications.  once again if fftoday differs from the fantasy football index on a ranking I usually make an effort to figure out why,   When you see different publications that are substantially different in rank, this can sometimes mean there is an opportunity there.   these are in what I typically term the low floor high ceiling players.

3) I also look for players who have been solid in the recent past but had a bad season last year.    I like to find out why the player did poorly last year and if the conditions that led to a poor performance still exist.   If they do not, and their ranking in the publications take a hit, they may be worth a gamble with a later round pick at their ADP to see if they can turn it around.

4) I look for key players who have moved to new offenses and offenses that have had a change in coaching or offensive philosophy.   people usually under rank these guys because there is risk with (for example a new QB)  sometimes a WR will have better numbers under the new QB somtimes not. 

I guess thats all I have.  post your own tips if you got em

[Ray_T 591]

one last thing if looking at fantasy football magazines try to take note or find out the publication date.  for example I noticed fantasy football Index is out in stores this week.   so the info there is current as of today but may not be by September when you are drafting your team

[nobody 2,043]

I used the pay more attention to rankings, but about 5 years I had a bad year doing that.  Now my research consists of watching more games and watching games of prospects.  

One takeaway I have from that is that there is something broken in the NFL draft process.  I have like a 75% hit rate predicting which undrafted free agents will make teams.  That means either the scouting sucks or teams aren't listening to their scouts.

The rest just falls into place.  With all the ADP data out there it's pretty easy to predict my whole draft.

[jrokh 569]

I have like a 99% Hit Rate on 1st round draft picks after 3 years, but for some reason the Jets and Bears won’t take my calls…

[Ray_T 591]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

I used the pay more attention to rankings, but about 5 years I had a bad year doing that.  Now my research consists of watching more games and watching games of prospects.  

One takeaway I have from that is that there is something broken in the NFL draft process.  I have like a 75% hit rate predicting which undrafted free agents will make teams.  That means either the scouting sucks or teams aren't listening to their scouts.

The rest just falls into place.  With all the ADP data out there it's pretty easy to predict my whole draft.

thats pretty impressive on undrafted free agents.  maybe you should do a post on that.  I'd certainly like to know which undrafted ones actually have a chance to be impact players.   Those are the players who seemingly come out of nowhere and win people championships.

[Ray_T 591]

18 minutes ago, jrokh said:

I have like a 99% Hit Rate on 1st round draft picks after 3 years, but for some reason the Jets and Bears won’t take my calls…

If you are that good maybe you should take a scouting course and get into that line of work.   

There is money to be made there if you can hit at even a 60% rate on most of your top picks.

one thing I noticed is that two of the teams that have the highest percentage of undrafted players on their roster have historically been Seattle and New England.

I cannot speak for the last couple of years, but for a long time those two teams were at the tops for that.  and they were perpetual playoff teams so clearly they were digging up or developing talent that other teams were not and it gave them an advantage of sorts.

[weepaws 2,460]

I simply look at rosters on Footballguys site, I rank my Rbs and WRs. I don’t even bother with Qbs and Tes and Def and Kickers, I start ranking them a few day or even the night before I draft.  

I don’t follow the game at all as it pertains to watching it or listening to the games. I don’t follow CF at all. 

Just like with movies , I would rather read the book, in today’s world I can get more in-depth info then I can watching the game.  

I then base my own rankings to a few ADP sites and it’s done, very simple.  I find the game of ff is a very simple one to follow.  

[e-factor 13]

I listen to a lot of FF podcasts while I work out or walk the dog.  A lot of good debate and when I hear something contrary to my opinion of a player that makes sense, I give it more thought.  Don't always move that player up, but good information to look at and reevalute.  For example,  one of the CBS guys was talking about how Tim Patrick created more separation in the end zone last year than Courtland Sutton, but the QB play was so bad that ZERO throws to him in the end zone were actually catchable.  Obviously better QB play this year, so I'll take a look at Patrick and he may move up a couple rounds for me.

[Ray_T 591]

11 hours ago, e-factor said:

I listen to a lot of FF podcasts while I work out or walk the dog.  A lot of good debate and when I hear something contrary to my opinion of a player that makes sense, I give it more thought.  Don't always move that player up, but good information to look at and reevalute.  For example,  one of the CBS guys was talking about how Tim Patrick created more separation in the end zone last year than Courtland Sutton, but the QB play was so bad that ZERO throws to him in the end zone were actually catchable.  Obviously better QB play this year, so I'll take a look at Patrick and he may move up a couple rounds for me.

this is also good info to have

[Phil Simms 11 127]

I analyze the Adp variance from my rankings, I highlight those with biggest variance. I look at the Adp of the site I’m drafting on, some of them have bargains due to that sites Adp being generous. 

 

I will have 3-4 players I will hope to draft at each round, I make an effort to vary my rosters a bit in different leagues with the exception of some players I really like.

The drafting in leagues that cost $500+ is much different from the lower buy-in leagues. In the lower cost leagues I can get many of my sleeper targets, in the more expensive leagues I need to have a longer list of sleepers. 

[Thurman 0]

I research offensive lines to help me tweak my rankings.  For example, Breece Hall, Cam Akers and Travis Etienne are very closely ranked, relative to each other, on most guides.  The Rams offensive line is ranked significantly higher than the Jets or Jaguars, so I'd bump Akers up higher than the other two.  Obviously there are many other factors to pay attention to, but I think knowing the offensive line rankings can really help you fine tune your rankings.

[wolves111 69]

3 hours ago, Thurman said:

I research offensive lines to help me tweak my rankings.  For example, Breece Hall, Cam Akers and Travis Etienne are very closely ranked, relative to each other, on most guides.  The Rams offensive line is ranked significantly higher than the Jets or Jaguars, so I'd bump Akers up higher than the other two.  Obviously there are many other factors to pay attention to, but I think knowing the offensive line rankings can really help you fine tune your rankings.

Good point.

[weepaws 2,460]

Akers isn’t someone I’m really interested in, 12 team half ppr, I would rather have Hall and Etienne. 

[Ray_T 591]

6 hours ago, Thurman said:

I research offensive lines to help me tweak my rankings.  For example, Breece Hall, Cam Akers and Travis Etienne are very closely ranked, relative to each other, on most guides.  The Rams offensive line is ranked significantly higher than the Jets or Jaguars, so I'd bump Akers up higher than the other two.  Obviously there are many other factors to pay attention to, but I think knowing the offensive line rankings can really help you fine tune your rankings.

agreed.

good post.