Dallas Goedert Was Quite Efficient Last Year

[Matt Mueller 148]

I play in some hybrid leagues where you can only hold players for 3 years and then you have 1 yearly franchise tag. This year I had a choice between keeping Henry or Kelce and with a TE room of Kelce, Andrews, Pitts and Taysom Hill? I decided to ship Kelce off for Goedert and the 1.10.

Whether that deal was good or not is mute but what surprised me was Goederts efficiency metrics when looking into some stats.

Dallas Goedert finished 5th in total receiving yards by a TE with 830.

He did this while being 17th in targets per game.

For a reference point Dalton Schultz had 808 yards on 104 targets

Goedert had 830 yards on 76 targets or more yards on 26 less targets.


When I ran stats in my .5 PPR league from week 7 on when Ertz left town.

Kelce 116 total points (1 missed game) 12.9 PPG average

Goedert 94 total points 9.49 average



Goedert also finished 2nd in Pro Football Focus's efficiency metrics.

https://section215.com/2022/02/19/phila ... edert-pff/

[Matt Mueller 148]

What does this mean for fantasy leagues? For years we have been waiting for Zach Ertz to finally leave town and then comes along AJ Brown to squash our dreams or does it?

Brown has played 3 years in the league and his target totals per year have been 84, 106, 105 while playing 16, 14 and 13 games.

Targets per WR rank by year 30th, 30th and 46th.

Im here to say that I believe there is a world where AJ Brown helps unlock some potential in the Eagles offense and a rising tide raises all boats INSTEAD of him being a road block to fantasy production.

Last year teams were probably focusing on Goedert as the main guy to take away. Maybe that focus shifts to Brown and Goedert operates underneath more like Kelce has with Hill all this years. (Realize way different QBs)

My overall point. Its possible the eagles offense takes a step forward and Brown isnt quite the target hog we think he is and Goedert maintains his connection with the QB surprising us by seasons end.

Or maybe we just got c*ck blocked again. Thats half the fun of fantasy. Seeing what happens.

[weepaws 3,422]

I think A Brown is going to be a big target for Hurst.   

[Matt Mueller 148]

56 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I think A Brown is going to be a big target for Hurst.   

Hayden Hurst does throw a nice deep ball 

[AxeElf 787]

5 minutes ago, Matt Mueller said:

Hayden Hurst does throw a nice deep ball 

It's a long way from Cincinnati to Philadelphia...

[weepaws 3,422]

4 hours ago, Matt Mueller said:

Hayden Hurst does throw a nice deep ball 

I don’t know , but he might be more accurate then Hurts. 

[weepaws 3,422]

I think that in a half point ppr A Brown will avg more per game then T Hill.  

[Matt Mueller 148]

^ I’m ok with that 

Hill is on my bust list 

[weepaws 3,422]

I don’t see any way that Tua can support both Hill and Waddle in ff. 

[polecatt 489]

He's good, but fantasy football is about raw numbers, not efficiency rates.

Unless he's gonna get a whole lot more targets, and nearly double his TD catches, he's not gonna be much better than streaming waivers

[TBayXXXVII 2,679]

6 minutes ago, polecatt said:

He's good, but fantasy football is about raw numbers, not efficiency rates.

Unless he's gonna get a whole lot more targets, and nearly double his TD catches, he's not gonna be much better than streaming waivers

True.  I like Goedert... but I loved him with Wentz.  A QB who can get him the ball is important.  I feel the same way about DeVonta Smith.  I think their 3 guys (those two plus Brown), are an excellent trio, but I don't think Hurts can get them the ball enough for them all to maximize their potential.

[Matt Mueller 148]

I def see that side of things.  Hurts not being able to support everyone.  I think Im in the camp that if anyone falls off it would be Smith.

 

Dont forget Ertz was on the Eagles until week 6.  He had 33 targets in that span.  While its not quite far to simply add those to Goederts totals for next year if you take Ertz 33 and Goederts 76 that 109 targets on the year which would have ranked 6th in total TE targets behind Pitts and ahead of Schutlz.

 

If Goedert gets 100 targets next year I think he can be a solid option weekly.   

 

[Matt Mueller 148]

Goedert also balled out in the playoffs against Tampa Bay.   12 targets 6 catches 92 yards 

[weepaws 3,422]

I think A Brown if he can stay on the field can help Hurts be a better Qb based not only on his talent, but also D Smith. 

I think the two WRs will be the target hounds.  

Goedert is like all te, draft one late and rotate.  

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,679]

1 hour ago, Matt Mueller said:

I def see that side of things.  Hurts not being able to support everyone.  I think Im in the camp that if anyone falls off it would be Smith.

 

Dont forget Ertz was on the Eagles until week 6.  He had 33 targets in that span.  While its not quite far to simply add those to Goederts totals for next year if you take Ertz 33 and Goederts 76 that 109 targets on the year which would have ranked 6th in total TE targets behind Pitts and ahead of Schutlz.

 

If Goedert gets 100 targets next year I think he can be a solid option weekly.   

 

I think he's a solid option weekly now, I don't need the 100 target qualifier.  I have no problem taking him, especially since he's going in round 7.  All I'm saying is that his ceiling is low because of his QB.

[Ray_T 798]

7 hours ago, polecatt said:

He's good, but fantasy football is about raw numbers, not efficiency rates.

Unless he's gonna get a whole lot more targets, and nearly double his TD catches, he's not gonna be much better than streaming waivers

no but efficiency rates can be a sign of a possible breakout the next year.

most times you see high efficiency on a player they target him more the next year and the efficiency sometimes will drop off with the higher volume but sometimes wont.

but if someone is catching and getting lots of yards on very few targets, the logical move is to give the guy more targets to see if he can help you more than he already does.

This is a nice find.  

Thanks for the info.

[wolves111 115]

6 hours ago, weepaws said:

I think A Brown if he can stay on the field can help Hurts be a better Qb based not only on his talent, but also D Smith. 

I think the two WRs will be the target hounds.  

Goedert is like all te, draft one late and rotate.  

 

I think you should draft both Hurts and Goedert. I live in Philly and the reports are already being leaked that Hurts hasn’t improved as a passer. 
Goedert would be a top three TE with a NFL QB.

[polecatt 489]

15 hours ago, wolves111 said:

I think you should draft both Hurts and Goedert. I live in Philly and the reports are already being leaked that Hurts hasn’t improved as a passer. 
Goedert would be a top three TE with a NFL QB.

That's the elephant in the room...

Hurts isn't so great and I don't think that's gonna change

[weepaws 3,422]

He’s not that good, but he is for ff, ninth in ff points last season among qbs,  But the addition of Brown might be a help mm.  I still think Brown based on avg will out perform Hill with the Dolphins.  

But he’s going to high for me , I don’t see him or Goedert making into the double digit rounds. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,679]

21 hours ago, wolves111 said:

I think you should draft both Hurts and Goedert. I live in Philly and the reports are already being leaked that Hurts hasn’t improved as a passer. 
Goedert would be a top three TE with a NFL QB.

 

6 hours ago, polecatt said:

That's the elephant in the room...

Hurts isn't so great and I don't think that's gonna change

I agree, and I think everyone else does as well because Goedert is going off the board as TE8.  I'm ok with waiting until the 7th or 8th round to take him.