Tom Brady

[JagFan 103]

Anybody have any idea what’s going on with him?  Doubt I’ll target him, but there’s a decent amount of fantasy production on the line with the skill players in Tampa.

[TBayXXXVII 2,215]

I don't target any QB.  I take the best one available around rounds 8 to 12.

[JagFan 103]

27 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't target any QB.  I take the best one available around rounds 8 to 12.

Great, thanks.  Is that why he left camp?

[Ray_T 608]

I think Brady is now officially the oldest player to put up the kind of stats hes been putting up.

 at some point its gotta end.

I bought him a couple years ago when he moved to tampa.    but I dont think I'm buying this year.  it feels like a lot of things are combining to make it difficult for him not to have a regression even if he stays healthy himself.

all his WR are injured or recovering from injury except for Evans.   hes good but he cant be the only guy.

I see some sort of regression for Brady.   I dont know how large it will be but I think he drops from top 3 to maybe top 10  which is still good but not worth paying a premium for compared to other starting QB.

[jrokh 574]

1 hour ago, JagFan said:

Anybody have any idea what’s going on with him?  Doubt I’ll target him, but there’s a decent amount of fantasy production on the line with the skill players in Tampa.

The only thing I heard about it is it might have been a planned vacay/Family Time that was agreed upon when he agreed to come out of retirement. Nothing definitive though, so who knows. I am a little concerned That there is a slight decrease in play, but then again he’s not really human…

[TBayXXXVII 2,215]

47 minutes ago, JagFan said:

Great, thanks.  Is that why he left camp?

Maybe.  He might have gotten mad at me and said "screw that guy".

[Ray_T 608]

yeah... thats it......he doesnt like Tbay and wanted to make him look bad.

hehe he probably doesnt even know we exist but sure I'll buy that one.

[AxeElf 787]

46 minutes ago, jrokh said:

The only thing I heard about it is it might have been a planned vacay/Family Time that was agreed upon when he agreed to come out of retirement.

The time off was written into his contract, not any kind of emergency or unforeseen circumstance, so that would be likely.

[weepaws 2,529]

1 hour ago, jrokh said:

The only thing I heard about it is it might have been a planned vacay/Family Time that was agreed upon when he agreed to come out of retirement. Nothing definitive though, so who knows. I am a little concerned That there is a slight decrease in play, but then again he’s not really human…

That was exactly what was written on roto.  Nice.  

[jrokh 574]

23 minutes ago, weepaws said:

That was exactly what was written on roto.  Nice.  

You would know..

[weepaws 2,529]

4 hours ago, jrokh said:

You would know..

I looked it up after I read your post. You wrote it like one of their own personal writer. Nice

Thanks. 

[jrokh 574]

16 minutes ago, weepaws said:

I looked it up after I read your post. You wrote it like one of their own personal writer. Nice

Thanks. 

You would know.

[weepaws 2,529]

11 minutes ago, jrokh said:

You would know.

Looks like you know. You copied it.  

[jrokh 574]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Looks like you know. You copied it.  

you would know...

[Ray_T 608]

8 hours ago, weepaws said:

That was exactly what was written on roto.  Nice.  

does it matter where he got the info from?

sure some sources are more reliable than others but roto seems to be ok at capturing injury and illness type issues.  not sure I like their projections all that much but thats another matter.

[RZKYBZNZ 2]

From what I heard... He is on Masked Singer

[weepaws 2,529]

Another Bucs oline player hurt.  

[kcBlitzkrieg 18]

My draft last night saw Brady fall to the 12th rd in a 6 pt passing TD 10 teamer.  Yes his oline, interior specifically, is already getting destroyed with injuries and he’s been MIA for his masked singer filming but still surprised that slip.  

[AxeElf 787]

Good QBs available in the double digit rounds is kind of a "Dog Bites Man" story these days.

[kcBlitzkrieg 18]

7 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Good QBs available in the double digit rounds is kind of a "Dog Bites Man" story these days.

Don't disagree but considering Allen went in the 2nd, Mahomes and Herbert in the 3rd it still surprised me.  

[kcBlitzkrieg 18]

Brady was 2nd highest scoring Qb in this league last year too.  

[AxeElf 787]

Yes, it's hard for a lot of people to believe when a dog bites a man (or a good QB is drafted in the double digit rounds), but in reality, it happens all the time.

[Ray_T 608]

40 minutes ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

My draft last night saw Brady fall to the 12th rd in a 6 pt passing TD 10 teamer.  Yes his oline, interior specifically, is already getting destroyed with injuries and he’s been MIA for his masked singer filming but still surprised that slip.  

honestly this (and injured WR) concern me more than the time off Brady has taken.

the O line is what keeps him from getting hit and hurt (most importantly)

and the WR is what helps make him productive.

I predict a bit of a regression.  Certainly not 5000 yards.

but 4400- 4500 is probably a reasonable estimate (assuming good health)

 

 

[weepaws 2,529]

Lol did they lower the red flags.  Oh my soul.  

[weepaws 2,529]

7 hours ago, kcBlitzkrieg said:

My draft last night saw Brady fall to the 12th rd in a 6 pt passing TD 10 teamer.  Yes his oline, interior specifically, is already getting destroyed with injuries and he’s been MIA for his masked singer filming but still surprised that slip.  

What round did you make the mistake of taking a Qb? 

[TBayXXXVII 2,215]

Just like in 2020, people haten' and missin' out.  Brady's throwing for 4700+ & 45 TD's.  Top 5 offense that passes 67% of the time is going to need someone to throw the ball 680 times.

[JagFan 103]

I’m targeting Brady as my QB2, probably in the 2nd round after I take the best QB available in the 1st round.  That’s clearly the best strategy and much better than waiting to be the last person to take a QB.  I’ll have all 5 of my QBs by the 6/7 turn.

[Ray_T 608]

3 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Just like in 2020, people haten' and missin' out.  Brady's throwing for 4700+ & 45 TD's.  Top 5 offense that passes 67% of the time is going to need someone to throw the ball 680 times.

Totally possible.

but as the guy gets older, the injury risk gets worse too.  and the line is not in great shape.  not like last year.   Bradys gonna take some hits.

and I cant stress enough that probably the reason hes been able to play to the age hes at is because he had a good line to play behind.

if he doesnt get hurt, he likely does hit 4700 yards.   but his odds of getting hurt get larger each year and now hes got injuries on the line and will be taking more hits.   not a good combination for a player his age.   my projections of 4400-4500 yards are taking the risk premium into account.  (or at least my risk premium.  you may see the risks differently)

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,215]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

Totally possible.

but as the guy gets older, the injury risk gets worse too.  and the line is not in great shape.  not like last year.   Bradys gonna take some hits.

and I cant stress enough that probably the reason hes been able to play to the age hes at is because he had a good line to play behind.

if he doesnt get hurt, he likely does hit 4700 yards.   but his odds of getting hurt get larger each year and now hes got injuries on the line and will be taking more hits.   not a good combination for a player his age.   my projections of 4400-4500 yards are taking the risk premium into account.  (or at least my risk premium.  you may see the risks differently)

 

I'm not concerned.  I'll gladly take the discount.

[Ray_T 608]

3 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm not concerned.  I'll gladly take the discount.

and if buying you have to be ok with it.  thats the name of the game.

I'm just pointing out what I see and telling people the discount I'm giving for this.   you of course are free to adjust your discount (or disregard)  or maybe you just use it as a guideline for what others are thinking and it helps you decide whether to wait one more round to pick your guy.

either way it is info, I hope you find it useful in some way.

[JagFan 103]

14 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I'm not concerned.  I'll gladly take the discount.

So you’re targeting Brady….hmmm.  I personally don’t target any player, only Def’s 

[TBayXXXVII 2,215]

11 minutes ago, JagFan said:

So you’re targeting Brady….hmmm.  I personally don’t target any player, only Def’s 

I buy the selling price.  If people want to let him fall to Round 12, yeah, I'll gladly take him there.

[Ray_T 608]

23 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I buy the selling price.  If people want to let him fall to Round 12, yeah, I'll gladly take him there.

this is what you should be doing with all players.

if you target one specific player you often will find yourself disappointed unless you overpay to make sure you get your guy.

Thats not usually a way to win fantasy drafts.

you highlight a handful of players you like at their ADP and if they fall to a point where you think they are a bargain, you buy when your turn comes up.   sometimes (especially when you draft on the end) its hard to figure what will be left when you are next up to pick and it makes it a little harder to make those speculative buys because 20 players will be picked before you get another chance to pick.   if you draft in the middle its like 10-12 picks before you pick again.  much easier.

[weepaws 2,529]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

I buy the selling price.  If people want to let him fall to Round 12, yeah, I'll gladly take him there.

Amen , three leagues and if I can get the goat in the 12 more power to me.