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Sean Mooney

Sean Mooney's 2022 Season Drafts- DRAFT #6 UPDATED

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59 minutes ago, jeffkomlo said:

I think you could take Kelce or Andrews in 2nd this year.

You could also take a Kicker in the 1st, but it's not a recommended strategy (unless of course you're Axe Elf and can recover).

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6 hours ago, jeffkomlo said:

I think you could take Kelce or Andrews in 2nd this year.  That's where some experts have them.  I couldn't bring myself to look over your pages and pages of self mocked drafts to see. 

I went through this with AxeElf last year. He doesn't believe in position maximization in these spots. To him it's better to take a receiver when everyone else is as opposed to trying to find an advantage at another spot like I did. 

Kelce or Andrews are both guys that get a ton of play in the 2nd round and are ahead of the rest of the position.

 

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Today was draft #2 of 6. Live draft this time which I always like as it adds a different element. This league you start: QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, TE, FLEX, K, DEF, and there are 6 bench spots. Half point PPR scoring

We did the blind draw for the draft and I drew....#1....AGAIN. I really do not love drafting from the #1 spot. Problem too was many times back to my spot it was similar players to draft #1 and I didn't want to just draft the same team. Overall I like where this team ended up better as there was more consistency in who was available and one player (who is always kind of goofy drafting- took 3 tight ends which dropped guys at times). So overall I ended up with a team of- with rounds in parenthesis

QB- Kyler Murray (6), Justin Fields (12)

RB- Jonathan Taylor (1), Leonard Fournette (3), Dameon Pierce (7), Kenneth Gainwell (10), Khalil Herbert (11)

WR- DJ Moore (4), Mike Williams (5), Hunter Renfrow (8), Tyler Lockett (9), Jarvis Landry (13)

TE- Mark Andrews (2)

DEF- Colts (14)

K- Ryan Succop (15)

 

Taylor and Andrews is just too good a 1-2 to pass up as it gives me the #1 projected points guy in most places at running back and receiver. Fournette being there on my first turn helped a ton giving me a stronger #2. Pierce I jumped in the 7th not thinking he would get back to me (he would not have) and the running back position was picked pretty clean today to that point. Definitely like my WR corps in this league as opposed to the other one. I was the last team to take a receiver and getting DJ Moore AND Mike Williams (#12 and #18 ranked on ESPN respectively) felt like a fair trade off for having 2 top 10 running backs and the top tight end. 

I gave my draft yesterday an 84/100. I'd give this one an 88/100. 

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You put yourself in quite a hole, whiffing on your first two picks, and then going extra average for the next three or four.

I know some people enjoy the challenge of in-season management, but you've really got your work cut out for you this time!

Good luck!

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18 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

You put yourself in quite a hole, whiffing on your first two picks, and then going extra average for the next three or four.

I know some people enjoy the challenge of in-season management, but you've really got your work cut out for you this time!

Good luck!

You are the Stephen A Smith of fantasy football advice. Yelling a bunch of nonsense that means nothing and/or is just flat out wrong. 

No one who drafts the #1 RB and #1 TE in fantasy almost across the board- has "whiffed"

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22 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

No one who drafts the #1 RB and #1 TE in fantasy almost across the board- has "whiffed"

When better players are on the board at the time, it's a whiff.

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12 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

When better players are on the board at the time, it's a whiff.

Yes because you obviously don't understand positional values and maximizing your spots. Also, you are legitimately saying the guy who is almost the unanimous #1 everywhere is a whiff when you take him at 1. That's absurd. Put down the booze.

Also, Mark Andrews is the #1 ranked tight end coming into the year on ESPN and #2 on Yahoo behind Kelce who went 1st round in this draft. Last year Mark Andrews scored 248 points in this league. 5 receivers topped that- Cooper Kupp- went 5th overall, Deebo Samuel went 28th, Davante Adams went 13th, Justin Jefferson went 10th, and Ja'Marr Chase went 6th. I took Mark Andrews- 24th. The only person I passed on then was Samuel and no person worth a damn would say one "whiffed" taking Mark Andrews.  

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6 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Also, you are legitimately saying the guy who is almost the unanimous #1 everywhere is a whiff when you take him at 1.

When the guy who was outscoring Taylor by 43 points through 8 weeks last season is still on the board, and you pick Taylor instead, it's a whiff.

Sorry.

And when you take a TE in the second round, you whiffed.  It's not only about the points you gained at TE by drafting Andrews, it's about the points you lost because you now get a 3rd round RB/WR instead of a 2nd round RB/WR, a 4th round RB/WR instead of a 3rd round RB/WR, a 5th round RB/WR instead of a 4th round RB/WR, and a 6th round RB/WR instead of a 5th round RB/WR.  Maybe by the 6th or 7th round you have enough RBs and WRs and can start thinking about a top 5ish TE like Ertz, Goedert or Kmet.

Sorry.

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On 8/27/2022 at 11:35 AM, Sean Mooney said:

Got the guy I wanted in Wan'Dale Robinson at the end. Should be a big gadget guy out of the slot and I think Brian Daboll is an excellent offensive mind. Will be fun to have him as a flier this late as basically my 5th or 6th receiver.

So we are looking at this in a 12 team, PPR league:

QB- Stafford, Fields

RB- Taylor, Conner, Elliott, Edmonds, Jamaal Williams

WR- Marquise Brown, Kirk, Robinson II, Meyers, Campbell, Wan'Dale Robinson

TE- Andrews, Fant

D- Colts

I don't mind this team too much.  The problem is your wife receivers are all going to be high variance.

I also think you have a fundamental flaw in your drafting philosophy if you're taking a tightened in the second and also drafting a backup unless there is some rule I'm not aware of.   I'm also not sure why you drafted a backup QB... Especially fields who plays the pats when Stafford is on bye.

Campbell will be off your team by week 2 most likely and when you hear gadget guy, run the other way, out of all your boom/bust receivers, Wandale will probably be mostly bust relative to his boom.  

The later round receivers you may want to start targeting are Rashod Batemon, Josh Palmer, George Pickens, and Jarvis Landry.  I'd also be looking at isaiah McKenzie in ppr.

By the way, Tonyan is criminally undervalued.  If you insist on taking a backup tightened, take him.  Better yet, just take him to be your starter and get guys like Fant as insurance and draft Ceedee when he's there.

 

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Just now, AxeElf said:

When the guy who was outscoring Taylor by 43 points through 8 weeks last season is still on the board, and you pick Taylor instead, it's a whiff.

Sorry.

And when you take a TE in the second round, you whiffed.  It's not only about the points you gained at TE by drafting Andrews, it's about the points you lost because you now get a 3rd round RB/WR instead of a 2nd round RB/WR, a 5th round RB/WR instead of a 4th round RB/WR, and a 6th round RB/WR instead of a 5th round RB/WR.  Maybe by the 6th or 7th round you have enough RBs and WRs and can start thinking about a top 5ish TE like Ertz, Goedert or Kmet.

Sorry.

Who is this guy? Also- fantasy season runs 14 weeks regular season- maybe you didn't know that? You were just saying yesterday that pre-season stats seemingly count in your league so...HTH.

I'll play along on your other scenario even though things wouldn't have worked necessarily on draft spots, but using the "top 5ish TE" caveat- and flipping out who I got.

I have Andrews/Renfrow compared to the guy who took Higgins/Ertz- Projected point totals are 371.25 vs 364.93...in my favor.

I have Andrews/Renfrow (next closest WR to TE) compared to the guy who took Pittman/Goedert. Projected point totals are 371.25 vs 353.31....in my favor.

I have Andrews/Lockett vs Keenan Allen/Cole Kmet...Projected point totals are 364.23 vs 344.89...in my favor.

All because Andrew is head and shoulders above those guys. 

I'm a Kmet guy this year and had I not been where I was I'd probably be looking at him but...Andrews is projected for 201 in this league- Kmet 138...63 points which is 4.5 every week over the 14 week regular season. Again- I took a small hit at receiver but got a bigger upgrade at tight end. Again- maximize your positional value in certain spots. If you'd learn that- you'd be better off. 

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11 minutes ago, nobody said:

I don't mind this team too much.  The problem is your wife receivers are all going be high variance.

I also think you have a fundamental flaw in your drafting philosophy if you're taking a tightened in the second and also drafting a backup unless there is some rule I'm not aware of.   I'm also not sure why you drafted a backup QB... Especially fields who plays the pats when Stafford is on bye.

Campbell will be off your team by week 2 most likely and when you hear gadget guy, run the other way, out of all your boom/bust receivers, Wandale will probably be mostly bust relative to his boom.  

The later round receivers you may want to start targeting are Rashod Batemon, Josh Palmer, George Pickens, and Jarvis Landry.

By the way, Tonyan is criminally undervalued.  If you insist on taking a backup tightened, take him.  Better yet, just take him to be your starter and get guys like Fant as insurance and draft Ceedee when he's there.

 

Yeah I do recognize the receivers are a little shaky for some. 

I drafted a backup QB because I always try to get insurance there for a spot where injuries are likely. Also, just personal preference- I don't see the need for a 6th RB or WR when I'm most likely not playing them anyway. Fant is a guy to me that might catch some lighting in a bottle or might be dropped to grab a high waiver guy one week. Same with Campbell. Wan'Dale was basically because receivers were picked clean...All your guys you mentioned were gone. Daboll might get something outta Robinson. I'll give it a week or two tops- see how he being used and then adjust as needed. For example- the top 3 wide receivers on the waiver wire right now are: AJ Brown, Sterling Shepard, and Corey Davis. I might put in a waiver claim on Davis because I think he is very undervalued right now but that is what we are looking at. 

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My concern isn't the overall performance of the receivers.  It's the consistency.  They may average 18 points or whatever a game, but if the variance is high, that means they'll have 30 some weeks and 6 other weeks.  That leads to playoff losses when your receivers inevitably have down weeks at the same time. 

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

When better players are on the board at the time, it's a whiff.

for the record, no draft pick is a whiff until the results are in.

we wont likely know until at least halfway through the season.   for now you can only say I think you could have done better.

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49 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

Yeah I do recognize the receivers are a little shaky for some. 

it is a better receiver group than your first draft. 

from the look of it you had to sacrafice some depth at RB to make that happen.    its a normal tradeoff.

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13 minutes ago, nobody said:

My concern isn't the overall performance of the receivers.  It's the consistency.  They may average 18 points are whatever a game, but if the variance is high, that means they'll have 30 some weeks and 6 other weeks.  That leads the playoff losses when your receivers inevitably have down weeks when at the same time. 

Definitely can understand that thinking. Hopefully if I get to the playoffs by then there will be some waiver wire movement...and maybe a trade or two somewhere. Having 3 strong running backs at the top might open up a trade for a receiver. 

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5 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

for the record, no draft pick is a whiff until the results are in.

we wont likely know until at least halfway through the season.   for now you can only say I think you could have done better.

Exactly. But just to keep it in perspective- Axe Elf said Mariota was a great pickup because he led a pre-season drive that would've scored him 13.7 points. That is a little delusional. 

2 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

it is a better receiver group than your first draft. 

from the look of it you had to sacrafice some depth at RB to make that happen.    its a normal tradeoff.

Yup. Taylor/Conner/Elliott is a better top 3 than Taylor/Fournette/Pierce but Moore/Williams/Renfrow/Lockett is better than Brown/Kirk/Robinson II/Meyers. Will be interesting to see how the two strategies play out. 

What was fun to watch was- the breakdown of how the first 24 picks broke down was the same- 8 WR, 13 RB, 2 TE, 1 QB. The QB's were different, and 1 or 2 RB were different but otherwise- pretty stock. 

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1 hour ago, Sean Mooney said:

Projected point totals are 371.25 vs 364.93...in my favor.

Not if Axe Elf is doing the projecting.  And like I said, you can't just consider two players--it's the trickle-down effect of wasting an early pick on a non-RB/WR.

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1 hour ago, Sean Mooney said:

Andrews is projected for 201 in this league- Kmet 138...63 points which is 4.5 every week over the 14 week regular season.

This is easily remedied by projecting Kmet for 178 points and Andrews for 147.  Now who's putting points in the bank every week?

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1 hour ago, Sean Mooney said:

the top 3 wide receivers on the waiver wire right now are: AJ Brown, Sterling Shepard, and Corey Davis. I might put in a waiver claim on Davis

lol  Too funny.

AJ Brown is on your league's waivers, but you might put in a claim for the Jets' WR3 instead.

You can't make this stuff up.

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1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

lol  Too funny.

AJ Brown is on your league's waivers, but you might put in a claim for the Jets' WR3 instead.

You can't make this stuff up.

I was thinking he must've meant AJ Green.

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29 minutes ago, nobody said:

I was thinking he must've meant AJ Green.

that would make more sense.

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5 hours ago, nobody said:

I was thinking he must've meant AJ Green.

Oh yes....sorry for the typo- which people not trying to be silly recognized. 

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7 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Not if Axe Elf is doing the projecting.  And like I said, you can't just consider two players--it's the trickle-down effect of wasting an early pick on a non-RB/WR.

I'll say this yet again- you are not seeing how the draft was flowing, only my picks. Yes I took Mark Andrews and ended up with DJ Moore and Mike Williams at receiver. Those two guys I've seen projected anywhere between 12-20 in the receiver stuff and essentially going in the first 50 picks. I got them as the 17th and 18th receivers off the board in the top 49 picks of the draft. Right on schedule with them. Renfrow and Lockett at 96 and 97 *ranked 31 through 37 many places) were the 38th and 39th receivers taken.

Basically I got the top tight end and got everyone else right around where they would have gone anyway. Maximize positions where you can at the front end and back end of draft orders.  

7 hours ago, AxeElf said:

This is easily remedied by projecting Kmet for 178 points and Andrews for 147.  Now who's putting points in the bank every week?

You clown yourself the more you talk. The minute you used pre-season game results to justify a pick you lost all credibility. 

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5 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

Yes I took Mark Andrews and ended up with DJ Moore and Mike Williams at receiver.

You can tapdance all you like, this is still a grave error.  So you got Moore and Williams at ADP.  That's not the point.  The point is that you could have had Lamb and Williams at WR, if you hadn't wasted your 2nd round pick on a TE.

5 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

The minute you used pre-season game results to justify a pick you lost all credibility.

The minute you stopped considering actual football in your fantasy football projections, you lost...  well, whatever that semblance of credibility you had might have been.

 

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17 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

Today was draft #2 of 6. Live draft this time which I always like as it adds a different element. This league you start: QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, TE, FLEX, K, DEF, and there are 6 bench spots. Half point PPR scoring

We did the blind draw for the draft and I drew....#1....AGAIN. I really do not love drafting from the #1 spot. Problem too was many times back to my spot it was similar players to draft #1 and I didn't want to just draft the same team. Overall I like where this team ended up better as there was more consistency in who was available and one player (who is always kind of goofy drafting- took 3 tight ends which dropped guys at times). So overall I ended up with a team of- with rounds in parenthesis

QB- Kyler Murray (6), Justin Fields (12)

RB- Jonathan Taylor (1), Leonard Fournette (3), Dameon Pierce (7), Kenneth Gainwell (10), Khalil Herbert (11)

WR- DJ Moore (4), Mike Williams (5), Hunter Renfrow (8), Tyler Lockett (9), Jarvis Landry (13)

TE- Mark Andrews (2)

DEF- Colts (14)

K- Ryan Succop (15)

 

Taylor and Andrews is just too good a 1-2 to pass up as it gives me the #1 projected points guy in most places at running back and receiver. Fournette being there on my first turn helped a ton giving me a stronger #2. Pierce I jumped in the 7th not thinking he would get back to me (he would not have) and the running back position was picked pretty clean today to that point. Definitely like my WR corps in this league as opposed to the other one. I was the last team to take a receiver and getting DJ Moore AND Mike Williams (#12 and #18 ranked on ESPN respectively) felt like a fair trade off for having 2 top 10 running backs and the top tight end. 

I gave my draft yesterday an 84/100. I'd give this one an 88/100. 

I like this draft much better than your first

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5 hours ago, Sean Mooney said:

Oh yes....sorry for the typo- which people not trying to be silly recognized. 

To be fair, I apparently have superior reading comprehension skills which allow me to not only see and understand the words that are explicitly written, but I also appear to possess the supernatural ability to understand intent better than... we'll say some people on this board.

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I don't get why everyone loves Mike Williams so much.  He scored a WR1 level point total 6 times out of 16 chances in the 17 week fantasy season.  3 of those were in the first 3 weeks which means teams caught on to Joe Lombardi's scheme and started shutting him down.  He's a contested catch type of guy.  He doesn't get very much separation, and his best year was last year which just so happened to be a contract year.  He's being drafted at his ceiling.

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48 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

You can tapdance all you like, this is still a grave error.  So you got Moore and Williams at ADP.  That's not the point.  The point is that you could have had Lamb and Williams at WR, if you hadn't wasted your 2nd round pick on a TE.

The minute you stopped considering actual football in your fantasy football projections, you lost...  well, whatever that semblance of credibility you had might have been.

 

And would have taken a much weaker tight end who would be a wash at points at best.

Learn to adjust man

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10 minutes ago, nobody said:

I don't get why everyone loves Mike Williams so much.  He scored a WR1 level point total 6 times out of 16 chances in the 17 week fantasy season.  3 of those were in the first 3 weeks which means teams caught on to Joe Lombardi's scheme and started shutting him down.  He's a contested catch type of guy.  He doesn't get very much separation, and his best year was last year which just so happened to be a contract year.  He's being drafted at his ceiling.

I like him, but would rather grab waddle, sutton, st brown, robinson, thielen, diontae johnson ranked below him

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53 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

And would have taken a much weaker tight end

Nonsense, you could have had Ertz, Goedert, or Kmet and not lost anything appreciable.

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1 minute ago, AxeElf said:

Nonsense, you could have had Ertz, Goedert, or Kmet and not lost anything appreciable.

4.5 points a week is not "anything"

You are wrong on this. Just admit it and move on. 

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1 minute ago, Sean Mooney said:

4.5 points a week is not "anything"

You're right, it's nothing.  It's a number made up to make people feel good about wasting a 2nd round pick on a TE.

It appears to be working.

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I think M Williams had an injury issue that slowed him down if I remember correctly, he didn’t miss playing time, but it did affect him.  

I know with out question I how M Williams ranked higher then most.  

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1 hour ago, nobody said:

I don't get why everyone loves Mike Williams so much.  He scored a WR1 level point total 6 times out of 16 chances in the 17 week fantasy season.  3 of those were in the first 3 weeks which means teams caught on to Joe Lombardi's scheme and started shutting him down.  He's a contested catch type of guy.  He doesn't get very much separation, and his best year was last year which just so happened to be a contract year.  He's being drafted at his ceiling.

Some just want a piece of the Charger’s offense and Williams is the cheapest of the big 4 players. I realize there are some who argue Josh Palmer is primed to be that guy but he’s still the 4th opinion at best…

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54 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

You're right, it's nothing.  It's a number made up to make people feel good about wasting a 2nd round pick on a TE.

It appears to be working.

you mean, like projections for henry?

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1 minute ago, Sean Mooney said:

4.5 points a week is not "anything"

You are wrong on this. Just admit it and move on. 

agreed.

at a projected 1100 yards and 8 TD for 158 fantasy points  there is a reason Andrews is ranked ahead of ERtz, Goedert, or Kmet who are all projected to get roughly 100 fantasy points (give or take)

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

at a projected 1100 yards and 8 TD for 158 fantasy points  there is a reason Andrews is ranked ahead of ERtz, Goedert, or Kmet who are all projected to get roughly 100 fantasy points (give or take)

The simple solution, of course, is to project Ertz, Goedert and Kmet for more points than Andrews, and then you can feel good about it.

37 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

you mean, like projections for henry?

Yes, projections for all players are made-up numbers.

The best indicator we have for future performance is past performance.

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5 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

 

Yes, projections for all players are made-up numbers.

The best indicator we have for future performance is past performance.

Every season and circumstance is different. For me, past performance is a big factor in my projections.

but... we look at players like chubb and henry.  I think the losses in clev and tenn passing games hurt their potential numbers this year.

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9 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

The simple solution, of course, is to project Ertz, Goedert and Kmet for more points than Andrews, and then you can feel good about it.

Yes, projections for all players are made-up numbers.

The best indicator we have for future performance is past performance.

Agreed, but you can’t have it both ways. Last year Andrews outscored Goedert/Ertz/Kmet, by over 100 points each in half ppr. By your own admission Andrew’s past performance would indicate he would do it again this year. I don’t buy it but your logic is flawed…

  • Like 1

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2 minutes ago, Bier Meister said:

I think the losses in clev and tenn passing games hurt their potential numbers this year.

The top 3 Titans receivers last year combined for 132 receptions, 1,779 yards, and 10 TDs.  Tennessee never had a passing game to lose.  Defenses can't stack the box against him any more than they already do--he faces 8 in the box on almost every play as it is.  Last year only Taylor and Najee faced more 8-in-the-box situations than Henry--and Henry only played 8 games!

So, the passing game and stacked boxes are a non-factor.

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