Axe Elf's 2023 Campaign

[Ray_T 564]

22 hours ago, rallo said:

I envision special teams plus a couple of designed gadget plays per game, with higher potential if he can actually stay healthy and a few key injuries happen throughout the year. More of a mid season plug in for fantasy players. For KC though, it makes a ton of sense.

I can see this too.

really his use will depend on a lot of factors, but his health is likely the largest of those factors right now.    That and likely his ability to learn the playbook.

[AxeElf 786]

This is probly dumb of me, since I post all my thoughts and strategies here for everyone to see, but then Axe Elf has always subscribed to the Billy Jack School of Fantasy Football (I tell you what I'm going to do, and then I do it, and there's not a dang thing you can do about it)--and I really want this league to fill with paid members--so here goes...

If you want to join Axe Elf in his first REAL league of the season ($50, 10 team AUCTION redraft league, 1/2 PPR typical scoring, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2FX/1K/1D/7BN/2IR, rolling list waivers and league votes on trades), we draft in three hours, at 10pm CDT on Yahoo:

LINK

 

[AxeElf 786]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

This is probly dumb of me, since I post all my thoughts and strategies here for everyone to see, but then Axe Elf has always subscribed to the Billy Jack School of Fantasy Football (I tell you what I'm going to do, and then I do it, and there's not a dang thing you can do about it)--and I really want this league to fill with paid members--so here goes...

If you want to join Axe Elf in his first REAL league of the season ($50, 10 team AUCTION redraft league, 1/2 PPR typical scoring, 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2FX/1K/1D/7BN/2IR, rolling list waivers and league votes on trades), we draft in three hours, at 10pm CDT on Yahoo:

LINK

 

Two slots remain, with an hour before the draft room opens...

[seafoam1 1,183]

Why do you reference yourself in the 3rd person? One step down from weepaws...

[AxeElf 786]

I remember at some point this year I said I was drafting Mahomes, Bijan, and Jefferson this year, and it wouldn't matter who else I drafted.  I can't seem to find it with a search--maybe it was a different board.

Anyway, I decided it was time to put that theory to the test, and I checked the Private Prize League listings on Yahoo for the first time this year.  I wasn't really expecting to find an acceptable league that would be jumping off TODAY (a basic half-PPR league--without the 3 QBs and 2 TEs and 10 pts per return yard nonsense)--but there it was (see deets above)--and we filled in the last 15 minutes before the draft room opened.

Having convinced myself since the schedules were released that Chase is the better WR value compared to Jefferson this season, I roughly budgeted $150 of the $200 auction budget to accomplish the goal of landing Mahomes, Chase and Bijan ($40/$50/$60)--and it was like God guided my hand; 12 picks into the draft, my goal was accomplished--ON THE NOSE!  lol

Pick #9 overall - Ja'Marr Chase.  I was a little dismayed that Chase cost me $58, which put me $8 over my budget.  Already.    Jefferson had gone for $60 right before at #8, so it probably could have been even worse.

Two picks later, pick #11 overall - Bijan Robinson.  Thankfully, RBs ran a little under expected value (at least mine) early on, and when McCaffrey set the market at $55 on pick #2, I figured I might get Robinson for a little less, and definitely less than the $60 I had budgeted for him.  He wasn't much less, at $54, but I'll pay that for the potential #1 overall pick in many drafts and the potential #1 overall RB for the season.

So that left me $38 for Mahomes, and I didn't have to wait--pick #12 overall - Patrick Mahomes.  This was such an ungodly waste of money.  I'd be embarrassed if it was anyone but Mahomes.  BUT IT'S MAHOMES!!!  (Jalen Hurts, the next-most-expensive QB later went for $26, for perspective.)  I might have gotten Mahomes pretty close to that, but one other bidder stepped me up and up and up... all the way to $38, on the dot.  lol  Honestly, at that point, I might have bid up to $40 or even $42 just to be stubborn, but miraculously (or tragically, depending on how you look at it), I landed Mahomes for $38, completing my set of triplets for exactly $150!

It was 53 picks until I would add another player, pairing Bijan and Chase with Kenneth Walker III ($17) at RB and Drake London ($10) at WR with picks #65 and #77.  Having a RB and a WR from the same NFL team on one's fantasy team tends to promote consistency in scoring from week to week.  That left me $23 to work with.

Between picks #89 and #107, I added my remaining five starters, spending $15 on Kadarius Toney ($5), Mike Gesicki ($2), Dallas D ($2) and Diontae Johnson ($6).  The Johnson purchase took my last expendable dollar, leaving me only $1 for Younghoe Koo and each of my 7 bench players--so it really couldn't have worked out any more perfectly.

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (10) $38

RB:  Bijan Robinson (11) $54, Kenneth Walker III (5) $17, D'Onta Foreman (13) $1, Jerick McKinnon (10) $1, Cordarrelle Patterson (11) $1

WR:  Ja'Marr Chase (7) $58, Drake London (11) $10, Diontae Johnson (6) $6, Kadarius Toney (10) $5, Juju Smith-Schuster (11) $1, Adam Thielen (7) $1, John Metchie III (7) $1

TE:  Mike Gesicki (11) $2, Dalton Schultz (7) $1

K:  Younghoe Koo (11) $1

DST:  Dallas Cowboys (7) $2

Remaining:  $0

I should call the team 24 HOURS because I have so many 7/11 byes... but I think it will all work out, barring a lot of injuries.

In retrospect, this probably wasn't the best format to try this strategy, with the 2 extra flex positions.  It would be easier to pull off with just 2 starting RBs and 2 starting WRs.  In fact, with Cooper Kupp going for $18 less than Chase, I'd kind of like to get into one of those leagues and see if I could pull off the Mahomes/Bijan/Kupp/Kelce quads.  Given these prices, it should leave me with about $10 to spend on the other 2 RB/WR starting slots before being down to dollar players.

But that would be like starting the top QB, potentially the top RB, potentially the top WR, and the top TE (by a LOT) at 4 of the 6 skill positions...  hmmm...  Might have to try that next...

(DISCLAIMER:  Axe Elf is an experienced drafter using advanced techniques in closed draft rooms with strict safety protocols in place.  Please do not spend all your auction money on three or four players when attempting to draft your own team.  This goes against all that is holy in auction drafting--the waste of some $30 between Mahomes and Chase over comparable players is literally shameful--but it's freaking MAHOMES!)

Mahomes/Bijan/Kupp/Kelce.  Fork yeah!  I'm doing that...

[AxeElf 786]

Ooo, just got my first trade offer...

I give Ja'Marr Chase;

I get Mike Evans AND Evan Engram!

My response:

lol  C'mon man.  You spent like $8 total on those two players, and you want the #2 overall WR who cost $58?  I should literally just auto-reject every trade offer you ever submit to me in the future, but since it's early in the offseason, I'm willing to look the other way if you don't let it happen again.

[Ray_T 564]

9 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Ooo, just got my first trade offer...

I give Ja'Marr Chase;

I get Mike Evans AND Evan Engram!

My response:

lol  C'mon man.  You spent like $8 total on those two players, and you want the #2 overall WR who cost $58?  I should literally just auto-reject every trade offer you ever submit to me in the future, but since it's early in the offseason, I'm willing to look the other way if you don't let it happen again.

you probably should auto reject all his trades anyways.    

guys like that think they have to win every trade and rarely offer fair deals to anyone.

[AxeElf 786]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

you probably should auto reject all his trades anyways.

Same guy today offers me Engram for Thielen.  I said at least it was a fair offer, but I felt better about my TEs than I did about my WRs, so I think I'll stand Pat. ('Cause you know, Gesicki is a Patriot.)

[nobody 1,821]

I bet Okonkwo is on the waiver wire too which means you shouldn't have to trade anything for tight end help if you want it.

[nobody 1,821]

I'd also get off the Diontae Johnson train.  I assume people are thinking his 0 TDs last year were a fluke and he'll regress back to the mean, but he's going to be bad until he gets with a rhythm QB that can take advantage of his ability to get open on time.  

Garrett Wilson is the guy in that offense because he and Pickett can improvise together.  Roethlisberger retiring really hurt DJ.

[AxeElf 786]

1 minute ago, nobody said:

I bet Okonkwo is on the waiver wire too which means you shouldn't have to trade anything for tight end help if you want it.

I'm axually pretty high on Gesicki.  Check the timeline...

2011:  Bill O'Brien becomes the offensive coordinator for the New England Patriots.  The TE duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez explodes, combining for 2,237 yards and 24 TDs.

2012-2013:  Bill O'Brien becomes the head coach at Penn State and recruits Mike Gesicki to the Nittany Lions.

2014-2022:  Bill O'Brien coaches with the Texans and at Alabama, while Gesicki is drafted into the NFL in the 2nd round--but falls out of favor with Miami's offensive scheme.

2023:  Bill O'Brien becomes the offensive coordinator for the New England Patriots.  The New England Patriots sign Mike Gesicki.  Gesicki and Hunter Henry were observed having special sessions with the QBs in OTAs.  Henry is expected to handle more blocking duties, while Gesicki is expected to be used more like a WR.

The Patriots top WRs are DeVante Parker, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Kendrick Bourne--they're not special.  Gesicki should be a surprise top 5 TE this season.

10 minutes ago, nobody said:

Garrett Wilson is the guy in that offense because he and Pickett can improvise together.

I thought we were talking about the Steelers.  Wilson plays for the Jets.  Remember:  Pickett/Pickens.

I'm willing to give Pickett another shot with a year under his belt.  Diontae was still a top-35 WR in half-ppr after their bye last year (after Claypool was traded and Pickett gained confidence), even with ZERO TDs--and he was 9 fantasy points out of 25th.  With just a handful of TDs this season, he should easily be top 25ish again.

[nobody 1,821]

Yeah, I conflated Pickens and Wilson.  I meant Pickens.  

I've been doing that all off-season.

I keep conflating Breece Hall and Bijan too.

[seafoam1 1,183]

3 hours ago, AxeElf said:

I'm axually...

What year in high school are you?

Do you talk in the third person too?

[AxeElf 786]

9 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

What year in high school are you?

I would have just finished my 46th year, had I not graduated 42 years ago.

9 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

Do you talk in the third person too?

No, but Axe Elf does.

[seafoam1 1,183]

2 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

I would have just finished my 46th year, had I not graduated 42 years ago.

No, but Axe Elf does.

 

[Ray_T 564]

7 hours ago, AxeElf said:

2011:  Bill O'Brien becomes the offensive coordinator for the New England Patriots.  The TE duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez explodes, combining for 2,237 yards and 24 TDs.

2012-2013:  Bill O'Brien becomes the head coach at Penn State and recruits Mike Gesicki to the Nittany Lions.

2014-2022:  Bill O'Brien coaches with the Texans and at Alabama, while Gesicki is drafted into the NFL in the 2nd round--but falls out of favor with Miami's offensive scheme.

2023:  Bill O'Brien becomes the offensive coordinator for the New England Patriots.  The New England Patriots sign Mike Gesicki.  Gesicki and Hunter Henry were observed having special sessions with the QBs in OTAs.  Henry is expected to handle more blocking duties, while Gesicki is expected to be used more like a WR.

The Patriots top WRs are DeVante Parker, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Kendrick Bourne--they're not special.  Gesicki should be a surprise top 5 TE this season.

you might be onto something with Gesicki.   Not sure hes top 5 but definitely draftable.   I wouldnt be surprised to see him go back to the 700 +yard receiving years he had in miami before he fell out of favour.

hes certainly with a coach that will know how to use his skillset.

There is more upside there than what I'm projecting but its tough to predict that this early in the season.   but if the pre season looks good I may upgrade him.

thing I have not liked about him so far, is that he has not been all that productive in the red zone so far in his career.  My hope is that this changes in New England.   even not knowing the timeline Axe has kindly posted I knew that the Pats like using their TE so I was reasonably sure he would have a bounceback year after a down year in a new system not designed with the TE in mind.

that said, he could easily put up career highs in New England.   though moving to a new team it may take him a year to get to that point.   Though his familiarity with the coach who also coached him in college may shorten up this adjustment period.

This is some nice info you posted here Axe.

Thanks.

[weepaws 2,060]

In that auction league I would like to know how much was spent on Herbert, Pollard,A J Brown.  Looking for better depth   

 

I think DJ is going to be just fine, he’ll catch a few tds this next season.  

[AxeElf 786]

I tried to do a mock auction on Yahoo (standard Yahoo public league half-PPR settings--1 Flex), to see if I could pull off the Mahomes/Bijan/Kupp/Kelce quads, but it was a literal joke.  There was one other "real person" in the draft, but he was on autodraft from the start, so it was basically just me and the bots, nominating each player in the pre-draft rankings in order, some team bidding his expected value, and sold.  So the early noms were ridiculously expensive (Kelce for $56?!?) and everyone was shopping at the dollar store by the end of the 7th round.

So after eating that price on Kelce, I only had a max bid of $24 to spend on Mahomes--which obviously wasn't enough--so the best QB I could afford was Lamar Jackson.

If I wasn't such a Mahomes homer this year, I would axually probly LIKE this team--but in a real draft, people would have held on to their money better and I wouldn't be getting legitimate starters for $1 and $2 later in the draft.  So I still can't wait to see if I can pull it off in a real draft.

Like I said, it's basically a joke--I'm only putting it here because it represents Yahoo's current pre-draft rankings, at least through the first 10 rounds or so, and that might be of value to some.  After that, it got a little less predictable, but the early noms were all pretty much right down the line.

All Draft Results in nomination order
* your team in bold

---

(1) Team 4 - Christian McCaffrey (SF - RB) - $64
(2) Team 9 - Justin Jefferson (Min - WR) - $62
(3) Team 4 - Ja'Marr Chase (Cin - WR) - $59
(4) Team 5 - Jonathan Taylor (Ind - RB) - $56
(5) Team 6 - Austin Ekeler (LAC - RB) - $56
(6) Axe Elf - Bijan Robinson (Atl - RB) - $57
(7) Team 3 - Saquon Barkley (NYG - RB) - $51
(8) Axe Elf - Travis Kelce (KC - TE) - $56
(9) Team 8 - Tyreek Hill (Mia - WR) - $48
(10) Axe Elf - Cooper Kupp (LAR - WR) - $52
(11) Team 4 - Josh Jacobs (LV - RB) - $48
(12) Team 3 - Nick Chubb (Cle - RB) - $47
(13) Team 2 - Stefon Diggs (Buf - WR) - $47
(14) Team 9 - CeeDee Lamb (Dal - WR) - $40
(15) Team 9 - Davante Adams (LV - WR) - $38
(16) Team 10 - Tony Pollard (Dal - RB) - $42
(17) Team 10 - Derrick Henry (Ten - RB) - $43
(18) Team 5 - Breece Hall (NYJ - RB) - $38
(19) Team 10 - Travis Etienne Jr. (Jax - RB) - $38
(20) Team 7 - A.J. Brown (Phi - WR) - $39
(21) Team 7 - Garrett Wilson (NYJ - WR) - $39
(22) Team 3 - Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det - WR) - $32
(23) Team 2 - Rhamondre Stevenson (NE - RB) - $36
(24) Team 3 - Najee Harris (Pit - RB) - $36
(25) Team 8 - Jaylen Waddle (Mia - WR) - $31
(26) Team 7 - Patrick Mahomes (KC - QB) - $33
(27) Team 5 - Chris Olave (NO - WR) - $26
(28) Team 10 - Tee Higgins (Cin - WR) - $30
(29) Team 7 - Kenneth Walker III (Sea - RB) - $34
(30) Team 7 - DeVonta Smith (Phi - WR) - $25
(31) Team 6 - Jalen Hurts (Phi - QB) - $29
(32) Team 6 - Mark Andrews (Bal - TE) - $29
(33) Team 10 - Josh Allen (Buf - QB) - $26
(34) Team 5 - T.J. Hockenson (Min - TE) - $25
(35) Team 8 - Miles Sanders (Car - RB) - $24
(36) Team 5 - J.K. Dobbins (Bal - RB) - $26
(37) Team 8 - Aaron Jones (GB - RB) - $26
(38) Team 2 - DK Metcalf (Sea - WR) - $23
(39) Team 2 - Cam Akers (LAR - RB) - $23
(40) Team 2 - Amari Cooper (Cle - WR) - $23
(41) Axe Elf - Lamar Jackson (Bal - QB) - $21
(42) Team 9 - George Kittle (SF - TE) - $22
(43) Team 8 - Deebo Samuel (SF - WR) - $22
(44) Team 7 - Dameon Pierce (Hou - RB) - $21
(45) Team 2 - Keenan Allen (LAC - WR) - $20
(46) Team 5 - Jahmyr Gibbs (Det - RB) - $20
(47) Team 4 - Dallas Goedert (Phi - TE) - $14
(48) Team 9 - Joe Burrow (Cin - QB) - $19
(49) Team 6 - Dalvin Cook (Min - RB) - $20
(50) Team 3 - Tyler Lockett (Sea - WR) - $19
(51) Team 6 - DeAndre Hopkins (Ari - WR) - $15
(52) Team 8 - Justin Fields (Chi - QB) - $13
(53) Team 8 - Kyle Pitts (Atl - TE) - $12
(54) Team 6 - DJ Moore (Chi - WR) - $18
(55) Team 2 - Terry McLaurin (Was - WR) - $14
(56) Team 8 - David Montgomery (Det - RB) - $13
(57) Team 10 - Evan Engram (Jax - TE) - $10
(58) Team 8 - San Francisco (SF - DEF) - $2
(59) Team 6 - Joe Mixon (Cin - RB) - $15
(60) Team 6 - Drake London (Atl - WR) - $11
(61) Team 9 - Dallas (Dal - DEF) - $3
(62) Team 9 - Trevor Lawrence (Jax - QB) - $8
(63) Team 2 - Justin Herbert (LAC - QB) - $6
(64) Team 3 - Calvin Ridley (Jax - WR) - $6
(65) Team 4 - Chris Godwin (TB - WR) - $5
(66) Team 6 - New York (NYJ - DEF) - $1
(67) Team 8 - Pat Freiermuth (Pit - TE) - $4
(68) Team 8 - Justin Tucker (Bal - K) - $1
(69) Team 10 - James Conner (Ari - RB) - $3
(70) Team 10 - Brandon Aiyuk (SF - WR) - $1
(71) Team 2 - Isiah Pacheco (KC - RB) - $2
(72) Team 2 - Darren Waller (NYG - TE) - $1
(73) Team 3 - Dak Prescott (Dal - QB) - $1
(74) Axe Elf - Rachaad White (TB - RB) - $2
(75) Axe Elf - Mike Williams (LAC - WR) - $2
(76) Team 6 - Daniel Carlson (LV - K) - $1
(77) Team 7 - David Njoku (Cle - TE) - $1
(78) Team 8 - Christian Watson (GB - WR) - $1
(79) Team 9 - D'Andre Swift (Phi - RB) - $1
(80) Team 10 - Philadelphia (Phi - DEF) - $1
(81) Axe Elf - Brian Robinson (Was - RB) - $1
(82) Team 2 - Buffalo (Buf - DEF) - $1
(83) Team 3 - Chigoziem Okonkwo (Ten - TE) - $1
(84) Team 4 - Rashaad Penny (Phi - RB) - $1
(85) Team 5 - Michael Pittman Jr. (Ind - WR) - $1
(86) Team 6 - Jerry Jeudy (Den - WR) - $1
(87) Team 7 - Denver (Den - DEF) - $1
(88) Team 8 - Alvin Kamara (NO - RB) - $1
(89) Axe Elf - Damien Harris (Buf - RB) - $2
(90) Team 10 - Harrison Butker (KC - K) - $1
(91) Axe Elf - Mike Evans (TB - WR) - $1
(92) Team 2 - Tyler Bass (Buf - K) - $1
(93) Team 3 - Baltimore (Bal - DEF) - $1
(94) Team 4 - Deshaun Watson (Cle - QB) - $1
(95) Team 5 - Daniel Jones (NYG - QB) - $1
(96) Team 6 - Jamaal Williams (NO - RB) - $1
(97) Team 7 - Brett Maher (Dal - K) - $1
(98) Team 8 - Tua Tagovailoa (Mia - QB) - $1
(99) Team 9 - Khalil Herbert (Chi - RB) - $1
(100) Team 10 - Diontae Johnson (Pit - WR) - $1
(101) Axe Elf - Kadarius Toney (KC - WR) - $1
(102) Team 2 - Kirk Cousins (Min - QB) - $1
(103) Team 3 - Nick Folk (NE - K) - $1
(104) Team 4 - New England (NE - DEF) - $1
(105) Team 5 - Miami (Mia - DEF) - $1
(106) Team 6 - Geno Smith (Sea - QB) - $1
(107) Team 7 - Christian Kirk (Jax - WR) - $1
(108) Team 8 - Washington (Was - DEF) - $1
(109) Team 9 - Michael Badgley (Det - K) - $1
(110) Team 10 - Alexander Mattison (Min - RB) - $1
(111) Axe Elf - Michael Thomas (NO - WR) - $1
(112) Team 2 - Cole Kmet (Chi - TE) - $1
(113) Team 3 - Treylon Burks (Ten - WR) - $1
(114) Team 4 - Jason Myers (Sea - K) - $1
(115) Team 5 - Younghoe Koo (Atl - K) - $1
(116) Team 6 - Greg Dulcich (Den - TE) - $1
(117) Team 7 - Marquise Brown (Ari - WR) - $1
(118) Team 9 - AJ Dillon (GB - RB) - $1
(119) Team 10 - Aaron Rodgers (NYJ - QB) - $1
(120) Axe Elf - D'Onta Foreman (Chi - RB) - $1
(121) Team 2 - Kansas City (KC - DEF) - $1
(122) Team 3 - Javonte Williams (Den - RB) - $1
(123) Team 4 - James Cook (Buf - RB) - $1
(124) Team 5 - Jahan Dotson (Was - WR) - $1
(125) Team 6 - Jacksonville (Jax - DEF) - $1
(126) Team 7 - Antonio Gibson (Was - RB) - $1
(127) Team 9 - George Pickens (Pit - WR) - $1
(128) Team 10 - Dalton Kincaid (Buf - TE) - $1
(129) Axe Elf - Jerick McKinnon (KC - RB) - $1
(130) Team 3 - Jared Goff (Det - QB) - $1
(131) Team 4 - Rashod Bateman (Bal - WR) - $1
(132) Team 5 - Elijah Mitchell (SF - RB) - $1
(133) Team 7 - Anthony Richardson (Ind - QB) - $1
(134) Team 9 - Tyler Allgeier (Atl - RB) - $1
(135) Team 10 - Evan McPherson (Cin - K) - $1
(136) Axe Elf - Jameson Williams (Det - WR) - $1
(137) Team 3 - Dalton Schultz (Hou - TE) - $1
(138) Team 4 - Samaje Perine (Den - RB) - $1
(139) Team 5 - Russell Wilson (Den - QB) - $1
(140) Team 7 - Dawson Knox (Buf - TE) - $1
(141) Team 9 - Sam LaPorta (Det - TE) - $1
(142) Axe Elf - JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE - WR) - $1
(143) Team 3 - Robbie Gould (SF - K) - $1
(144) Team 4 - Mike Gesicki (NE - TE) - $1
(145) Team 5 - Tyler Higbee (LAR - TE) - $1
(146) Team 7 - Eddy Pineiro (Car - K) - $1
(147) Team 9 - Chris Boswell (Pit - K) - $1
(148) Team 4 - Derek Carr (NO - QB) - $1
(149) Team 5 - Indianapolis (Ind - DEF) - $1
(150) Team 4 - Greg Zuerlein (NYJ - K) - $1

[AxeElf 786]

I tried really hard to get into a small (single-flex) 10 team league this week so that I could try out my goal of landing Mahomes/Bijan/Kupp/Kelce, but the leagues I was joining weren't filling, and by the time I realized they weren't going to fill, the ones I should have joined were already full. So instead, I ended up in a much bigger 12 team Superflex league, starting 3 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE and 2 Flex (plus the Superflex).

Now normally, this would call for a much different--more patient and frugal--approach, but with 1 pt per 20 yards passing and 6 pt Pass TDs, I just can't see anyone overcoming Mahomes in this league. So my first purchase was Mahomes for $110.

(Oh, sorry, I forgot to mention we had $400 auction bucks instead of the traditional $200, so for all the prices I list, just mentally halve them to scale them to a normal auction--so Mahomes would have cost $55 of a normal $200 budget.)

And if there is any player other than Mahomes who (barring injury) guarantees dominance at their position, especially in a full-PPR league, it's Kelce--so I went and spent $71 on Kelce, too... and then I waited 50 picks.

I just have to laugh, because this is the EXACT OPPOSITE strategy that anyone should ever use in an auction draft--spending up to get the top QB and TE--the two positions with the most value at much lower price points--and ESPECIALLY in a Superflex league, and ESPECIALLY in a deep roster league like this where I still have 18 players to draft, and I've used 43% of my budget!

In the end, I wound up with Kadarius Toney as well--the ultimate Chiefs stack (Mahomes-Kelce-Toney)--that's going to be worth like 70 points a week right there!

I SHOULD have had McKinnon, too, but I made a mistake in the late stages and blew my last $8 max bid on Devin Singletary, whom I didn't REALLY want to win, at that point, but I just assumed that the moneybags who was bidding me up on him would go $9, since my max bid was $8 and he had plenty of cash to spare, but apparently he was just trying to force me into the dollar store, which he did. So touche; that hurt. I would have NOT had Singletary, but most likely would have had McKinnon AND Gus Edwards, to back up Dobbins, so blowing the wad on Singletary hurt. Hopefully he'll at least win the job now...

That also forced me to take a few more "shots" at RB sleepers like Zeke/Vaughn and Hunt, and go without a K or a D, for now. I'll just stream those anyway.

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (10) $110, Kenny Pickett (6) $24, Mitch Trubisky (6) $1
RB:  Najee Harris (6) $47, J.K. Dobbins (13) $43, Devin Singletary (7) $8, Kareem Hunt (?) $3, Ezekiel Elliott (?) $1, Cordarrelle Patterson (11) $1, Deuce Vaughn (7) $1
WR:  Amon-Ra St. Brown (9) $47, Deebo Samuel (9) $30, Kadarius Toney (10) $7, Curtis Samuel (14) $1, Hunter Renfrow (13) $1, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (10) $1, Allen Robinson II (6) $1, DeVante Parker (11) $1
TE:  Travis Kelce (10) $71, Taysom Hill (11) $1
K:  TBD
DST:  TBD
Remaining:  $0

And now, an embarrassing lesson.

Axe Elf, along with everyone else in the league, was chatting away so furiously that at pick #12 overall in the draft, Dak Prescott sold for his nomination price of $1.  Yup, nobody noticed as the timer ran down all 10 seconds without a bid, and someone got Dak for $1.  In a SuperFlex league.  His WRs are Jefferson, Lamb, Diggs and Wilson.  (Fortunately, his other QBs are Aaron Rodgers and Will Levis, and his RBs are Tony Pollard, Damien Harris, Elijah Mitchell and Zach Charbonnet.)

Always pay attention, kids...

[AxeElf 786]

On 6/11/2023 at 1:16 AM, AxeElf said:

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (10) $38

RB:  Bijan Robinson (11) $54, Kenneth Walker III (5) $17, Khalil Herbert (13) FA, D'Onta Foreman (13) $1, Jerick McKinnon (10) $1, Cordarrelle Patterson (11) $1

WR:  Ja'Marr Chase (7) $58, Drake London (11) $10, Diontae Johnson (6) $6, Kadarius Toney (10) $5, Juju Smith-Schuster (11) $1, Adam Thielen (7) $1, John Metchie III (7) $1

TE:  Mike Gesicki (11) $2, Dalton Schultz (7) $1

K:  Younghoe Koo (11) $1

DST:  Dallas Cowboys (7) $2

Remaining:  $0

So in this, the first real league I drafted, someone decided that they needed the Jacksonville DST more than Khalil Herbert, and dropped him.  I only had the 7th waiver, but I managed to use it on Herbert, as no one ahead of me placed a claim.  So now I'm pretty much guaranteed the starting RB for the team that led the NFL in rushing last year, and my RB corps looks a whole lot healthier!

On the downside, I now have the 10th waiver...

I'm set for #3 tonight--hopefully a small enough roster/league to put the "Quads" strategy into play...  I'll keep you posted.

[nobody 1,821]

Someone dropped Khalil

[AxeElf 786]

59 minutes ago, nobody said:

Someone dropped Khalil

IKR?  For the JAX DST!!!  lol

And if that's not bad enough, I got him with the 7th waiver!

[weepaws 2,060]

Problem with the Bears leading the league in rushing last season , is that 1100 yards came from the Qb, so he’s the rb to own on the Bears.  I think the Bears rb situation cou,d be a 3 way RBBC.  

[AxeElf 786]

Bah.

With Kelce going for $59 (under a $200 budget--in HALF PPR!), there was no way I could implement the plan to draft the Mahomes/Bijan/Kupp/Kelce quads; naturally that Kelce price was the nonsense with which I did not engage. But I have my secret weapon Gesicki, so it's all good.

I guess the plan in the future would be to get Kelce out as early as possible, and if I can land him for less than $40, then game on--and if not, at least I don't have to save for him. Wish I would have known that tonight, as I had the first overall nomination.   Live and learn with Axe Elf...

So this was basically a Yahoo private prize league set up exactly like a Yahoo public prize league--half PPR, 1 Flex.

Once I had Mahomes, Bijan and Kupp in hand, it was starting to look like I could add two more $20 players at RB2 and WR2--and that's exactly what I did, on the dot--$21 for Dobbins and $19 for London. Landing Aiyuk for the relative bargain price of $5 gave me my Flex player, and left me a few dollars to pick off some depth RBs late in the draft.

This early in the offseason in a 10 team league, I'll worry about my K and D later, after some of the questions on my roster are answered.

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (10) $40
RB:  Bijan Robinson (11) $55, J.K. Dobbins (13) $21, Jerick McKinnon (10) $3, Kareem Hunt (?) $2, Gus Edwards (13) $2, Devin Singletary (7) $1, Cordarrelle Patterson (11) $1
WR:  Cooper Kupp (10) $47, Drake London (11) $19, Brandon Aiyuk (9) $5, Jahan Dotson (14) $1, Curtis Samuel (14) $1, John Metchie III (7) $1
TE:  Mike Gesicki (11) $1
K:  TBD
DST:  TBD
Remaining:  $0

My only real regret was not having enough to land Kadarius Toney, but he was pretty highly sought-after, for his draft position, and went for $7 when most players were going for $3 or so, which is what I was hoping to spend on him.

Ce la vie.

The quest for the perfect draft continues...

(...but I probably need to take a break for a few weeks, or I'm going to have 20 leagues again.)

[Ray_T 564]

On 6/14/2023 at 5:52 PM, AxeElf said:

I tried to do a mock auction on Yahoo

problem with yahoo, is if you get pre programmed responses that actually does not do a good job of simulating how a real auction will go.

all it does is tell you how you would do against yahoo bots.

It will give you an idea of how you would do against people using yahoo rankings and ratings,  but most intelligent people dont use yahoo rankings and ratings so you will only get so much out of the experience.

[AxeElf 786]

55 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

problem with yahoo, is if you get pre programmed responses that actually does not do a good job of simulating how a real auction will go.

all it does is tell you how you would do against yahoo bots.

It will give you an idea of how you would do against people using yahoo rankings and ratings,  but most intelligent people dont use yahoo rankings and ratings so you will only get so much out of the experience.

Well yeah, I said it was a disaster.  One bot bid the max price on every player and there was no more bidding, until everyone ran out of money and then every player from the 8th round on was a dollar.  Complete nonsense.

So do you have anything to say about the USEFUL information in this thread?

I just drafted three killer teams, and so far, no ovations, donations, or undergarments have been forthcoming.  I mean, I know it's only JUNE, but it's still kind of a wasteland around here.  Maybe after the Fourth things will pick up.  That's when I used to allow myself to first buy a fantasy football magazine or five; starting on the Fifth of July--the official opening of fantasy football season!

Now it's more like Memorial Day, although it's hard to avoid the information technology these days, from around the draft at the end of April onward...

[Ray_T 564]

1 hour ago, AxeElf said:

So do you have anything to say about the USEFUL information in this thread?

 

well, you seem to like your drafts with the wacky rules and such.   its an interesting read.  but it is also not reallky for me.   it is early in the year.  I promised myself I'd take it easier on fantasy football early in the offseason (which also happens to be my busy season at work)  so I've been a little less attentive to all the comments in the threads.   I read them but I'm a little less inclined to comment than I have been in the past.

the drafts where you go up against actual people tell me more than those where its bots.  but you basically said that (and so did I in a previous comment)

in the one I think you were fortunate to be able to get Herbert on the wire.   that was a nice pickup.

I dont know what else to say.   its early, early season and the ball is just starting to roll for some of us.

[AxeElf 786]

16 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

well, you seem to like your drafts with the wacky rules and such.

I do enjoy those, although these first three have been pretty vanilla, as I've been experimenting with my goal of drafting the Mahomes/Bijan/Kupp/Kelce combo in a typical auction league.  The middle one was the wackiest, being a SuperFlex with premium QB scoring and 3 starters at RB and WR plus two Flexes--but the last one was a pure clone of standard Yahoo half-PPR, 1 Flex public prize leagues (but as a private league, we pay a 2% rake instead of a 10% rake), and the first one was ALMOST a pure clone; it just had one extra Flex player.

19 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

its early, early season and the ball is just starting to roll for some of us.

I suspect this is largely the case.  Like I said, I'm hoping to see things freshen up after the Fourth.

[AxeElf 786]

Well, I waited two weeks.

I was axually scheduled to do my fourth draft yesterday afternoon--ON the Fourth!--but it didn't fill in time and got moved to tonight.  I was trying to find something as close to the Yahoo Public Prize leagues as possible--10 teams, standard half-PPR, 1 Flex--but in a Private Prize league so as to pay a 3% rake instead of a 10% rake.  When I signed up for the draft yesterday, the only things that didn't match those criteria were that it was a 12 team league instead of 10, and passing TDs were 6 pts instead of 4.  (Well, this league also doesn't use Kickers, but that's kind of a fringe benefit, axually.)  Then for some reason the scoring was changed today to full PPR, and QB scoring went from 1 pt per 25 yards to 1 pt per 20 yards, but passing TDs went from 6 pts to 5 pts.  Meh, kind of a quarter-dozen to one, quarter-dozen to the other; I'm targeting Mahomes anyway.

Quite foolishly, I might add, as any hope of scoring the quads (Mahomes/Robinson/Kupp/Kelce) went right out the window when I was forced to pay $51 for Mahomes (and Kelce went for $50 anyway).  I mean, it wasn't THAT bad, in that Mahomes is about a 10 point per week advantage over any QB not named Allen, Burrow or Hurts in this scoring system (and Josh Allen went for $44), but it made me sweat a little.

Any lingering hint of foolishness went right out the window, though, when I literally ended up with THE EXACT starting lineup that I wanted (if I wasn't able to get Kelce) in one of the most striking examples of the "Studs & Scrubs" auction strategies ever witnessed.  I spent $193 on my starting lineup, and exactly $1 on each of my 7 bench players (one of which I will eventually have to trade in for a Defense)!  I thought I was going to be in trouble when I had to use my last extra dollar to snipe Gesicki when someone else nominated him, but I literally had the perfect dollar store runout--nobody ever nominated anyone I wanted, and everyone I nominated I got for $1.

So I got the exact starting lineup I was targeting (including a KC QB/WR stack), I have the potential #1 player at each of the top three skill positions (and top 15-20 players at RB2/WR2/Flex? to boot), I covered my butt at RB by handcuffing both starters, and I poured every possible dollar into my starting lineup while mining a ton of dollar store potential--and then there's my secret weapon Gesicki--so this was a darn near perfect 12 team PPR league auction draft.  May your coffers be the richer for the ample example of Axe Elf!

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (10) $51
RB:  Bijan Robinson (11) $54, J.K. Dobbins (13) $19,  Devin Singletary (7) $1, Kareem Hunt (?) $1, Tyler Allgeier (11) $1, Gus Edwards (13) $1
WR:  Cooper Kupp (10) $47, Brandon Aiyuk (9) $13, Kadarius Toney (10) $7, Terrace Marshall Jr. (7) $1,  Romeo Doubs (6) $1, John Metchie III (7) $1
TE:  Mike Gesicki (11) $2
DST:  TBD
Remaining:  $0

Hopefully I can wait another two weeks now...

[Ray_T 564]

17 hours ago, AxeElf said:

Well, I waited two weeks.

I was axually scheduled to do my fourth draft yesterday afternoon--ON the Fourth!--but it didn't fill in time and got moved to tonight.  I was trying to find something as close to the Yahoo Public Prize leagues as possible--10 teams, standard half-PPR, 1 Flex--but in a Private Prize league so as to pay a 3% rake instead of a 10% rake.  When I signed up for the draft yesterday, the only things that didn't match those criteria were that it was a 12 team league instead of 10, and passing TDs were 6 pts instead of 4.  (Well, this league also doesn't use Kickers, but that's kind of a fringe benefit, axually.)  Then for some reason the scoring was changed today to full PPR, and QB scoring went from 1 pt per 25 yards to 1 pt per 20 yards, but passing TDs went from 6 pts to 5 pts.  Meh, kind of a quarter-dozen to one, quarter-dozen to the other; I'm targeting Mahomes anyway.

Quite foolishly, I might add, as any hope of scoring the quads (Mahomes/Robinson/Kupp/Kelce) went right out the window when I was forced to pay $51 for Mahomes (and Kelce went for $50 anyway).  I mean, it wasn't THAT bad, in that Mahomes is about a 10 point per week advantage over any QB not named Allen, Burrow or Hurts in this scoring system (and Josh Allen went for $44), but it made me sweat a little.

Any lingering hint of foolishness went right out the window, though, when I literally ended up with THE EXACT starting lineup that I wanted (if I wasn't able to get Kelce) in one of the most striking examples of the "Studs & Scrubs" auction strategies ever witnessed.  I spent $193 on my starting lineup, and exactly $1 on each of my 7 bench players (one of which I will eventually have to trade in for a Defense)!  I thought I was going to be in trouble when I had to use my last extra dollar to snipe Gesicki when someone else nominated him, but I literally had the perfect dollar store runout--nobody ever nominated anyone I wanted, and everyone I nominated I got for $1.

So I got the exact starting lineup I was targeting (including a KC QB/WR stack), I have the potential #1 player at each of the top three skill positions (and top 15-20 players at RB2/WR2/Flex? to boot), I covered my butt at RB by handcuffing both starters, and I poured every possible dollar into my starting lineup while mining a ton of dollar store potential--and then there's my secret weapon Gesicki--so this was a darn near perfect 12 team PPR league auction draft.  May your coffers be the richer for the ample example of Axe Elf!

QB:  Patrick Mahomes (10) $51
RB:  Bijan Robinson (11) $54, J.K. Dobbins (13) $19,  Devin Singletary (7) $1, Kareem Hunt (?) $1, Tyler Allgeier (11) $1, Gus Edwards (13) $1
WR:  Cooper Kupp (10) $47, Brandon Aiyuk (9) $13, Kadarius Toney (10) $7, Terrace Marshall Jr. (7) $1,  Romeo Doubs (6) $1, John Metchie III (7) $1
TE:  Mike Gesicki (11) $2
DST:  TBD
Remaining:  $0

Hopefully I can wait another two weeks now...

yep it definitely looks like a studs and scrubs auction strategy.

but I dont mind Aiyuk at $13 or Toney at $7.   Doubs is as good as you will get for $1.   I also like the Kareem Hunt for $1.   Seems like a hefty price for Bijan, but I know you like him more than I do.   and I dont mind Gesicki for $2.

Mahomes is Mahomes.  I dont think I need to comment on him.

You are most likely a playoff team.  whether you are a high end playoff team or low end would largely depend on how those $1 players pan out for you.   If they pan out, you'll do well.    and I think I like most of your $1 players so I'm guessing probably a 3rd or 4th place finish during the regular season?  

[AxeElf 786]

38 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

I'm guessing probably a 3rd or 4th place finish during the regular season?

You'll excuse me if I still go for 1st.

[Ray_T 564]

55 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

You'll excuse me if I still go for 1st.

I fully expect it.

keep in mind of course that only 50% of the job is complete.  obtaining quality free agents and setting a good lineup based on matchups can make up a whole lot of ground and you have not even shown what you can do on that front (yet).

 

[AxeElf 786]

10 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

you have not even shown what you can do on that front (yet).

Well, judging by the previous 30 years, it shouldn't be much of a problem.

[Sean Mooney 1,115]

56 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Well, judging by the previous 30 years, it shouldn't be much of a problem.

I don't recall you ever really talking about the machinations of your moves within the course of the season. Perhaps I am just not remembering it. 

[AxeElf 786]

18 minutes ago, Sean Mooney said:

I don't recall you ever really talking about the machinations of your moves within the course of the season. Perhaps I am just not remembering it. 

I don't necessarily bring every boring detail of free agency or weekly starting lineups to the boards, but I was referring more to the results of the past 30 years as evidence of the sufficiency of my machinations.

[WhiteWonder 1,868]

On 6/10/2023 at 9:38 PM, AxeElf said:

Two slots remain, with an hour before the draft room opens...

Some top notch league with openings to fill and an hour before the draft room opens

[WhiteWonder 1,868]

On 6/20/2023 at 4:13 PM, AxeElf said:

IKR?  For the JAX DST!!!  lol

And if that's not bad enough, I got him with the 7th waiver!

You play with bots and idiots and expect praise

clown show 

[AxeElf 786]

59 minutes ago, WhiteWonder said:

You play with bots and idiots

There were no bots, and everyone is an idiot compared to Axe Elf, so what can I do?  There's no one left to offer Axe Elf any competition, so I make do with what I have.

[nobody 1,821]

Doubs and Aiyuk were steals.

You can drop Metchie for your defense as soon as free agency opens.  He can run fast in a straight line and not much else

 

[AxeElf 786]

Are we there yet?

I can not WAIT for this season to start!  I mean, I can't wait for every season to start, but this one is different; this one is special...

Fantasy Football 101 is "Don't Be a Homer!"  There's always that guy who has to draft his favorite team's QB, RB, WR, and TE--and then he never makes the playoffs.  And as an (almost) life-long resident of Kansas who was 7 years old when the Chiefs won their first Super Bowl, "Don't Be a Homer!" always applied in spades to us Kansas City fans.  Oh, maybe we had a couple of solid fantasy RBs along the way here and there, and Tony Gonzalez, but that was about it.

But now, with Mahomes and Kelce both pretty much locks to dominate their respective fantasy positions (barring injury), and other solid fantasy choices in Kadarius Toney and Isaiah Pacheco (and even McKinnon to some extent in PPR leagues)--people are even taking flyers on Skyy Moore and MVS--it's the perfect time to be a Kansas City fantasy homer!

And so I am.

It's absolutely the wrong strategy in any given year to invest a lot of draft capital in QBs and TEs--but not this year.  This year you can put just about any combination of four or five legitimate starters on a team with Mahomes and Kelce and be a contender.  Of course this is easier in auction drafts than snake drafts, but if you're somewhere around the middle of the draft order, go ahead and take Kelce/Mahomes 1/2.  You'll still end up with something like Etienne/Dobbins at RB and Allen/Aiyuk/Ridley at WR.  That should keep you competitive while Mahomes and Kelce are outscoring every other QB/TE combination by 15 pts per week.

I've always taken quite a bit of enjoyment from "doing things wrong" in fantasy football and still winning--telling everyone else my strategy, drafting a K and a D in the first two rounds, drafting my team from the FAs left over after all the other teams have drafted, etc.--so being able to "do everything wrong" this season--be a KC homer in fantasy, while at the same time spending big draft capital on a QB and a TE--will make victory taste that much more sweet.

Let's GO!!!