Where is Doug Orth's PPR rankings?

[the spanker 28]

Doug where are you?  I enjoy your rankings commentary every year!

[Ray_T 591]

Spanker!  long time no see.

I hope you're doing well.

You should participate in the chat board sometime.

cheers

[The Football Guru 212]

17 minutes ago, the spanker said:

Doug where are you?  I enjoy your rankings commentary every year!

I be here

I should have my projections done sometime late next week. My first Big Board article usually comes out around Aug. 8-10. I should have a working copy about a week before that this year.

[the spanker 28]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

Spanker!  long time no see.

I hope you're doing well.

You should participate in the chat board sometime.

cheers

Hello Ray_T!

Thanks for the invite which is timely because I've been struggling to ascertain if it's worth drafting one of the top 3 QBs in the 2nd round in a ppr league where all TDs score 6pts.

I've read different opinions by the "experts" which is why I love reading Doug Orth's rankings each year to help sort out the noise.

Do you or anyone else in here have an opinion as to why or why not to take an elite QB in the 2nd round?  

 

 

 

[the spanker 28]

1 hour ago, The Football Guru said:

I be here

I should have my projections done sometime late next week. My first Big Board article usually comes out around Aug. 8-10. I should have a working copy about a week before that this year.

Hi Doug looking forward to reading your analysis and logic to find value and avoid landmines this year.  

If your willing please chime in to my previous posts regarding QBs. 

[weepaws 2,460]

One has an entire draft to take a Qb. But only one 2nd rd pick to draft a rb or wr1.  

 

[Ray_T 591]

6 hours ago, the spanker said:

Hello Ray_T!

Thanks for the invite which is timely because I've been struggling to ascertain if it's worth drafting one of the top 3 QBs in the 2nd round in a ppr league where all TDs score 6pts.

I've read different opinions by the "experts" which is why I love reading Doug Orth's rankings each year to help sort out the noise.

Do you or anyone else in here have an opinion as to why or why not to take an elite QB in the 2nd round?  

 

 

 

I have not run the numbers on this. 

but in a standard PPR league QB TD's are worth 4 points.  so a PPR league where all TD's are worth 6 will create a bigger discrepency between the have and the have not's at QB.

so if (for example) you were thinking about taking Mahomes and if you think he throws 40 TD's,  the scoring difference from standard PPR to your league would be 80 points.    This is very significant.  and most QB's in the top 5are expected to get between 28 and 34 TD's Based on this alone if you believe the FFtoday projections online I would think Mahomes should go in early to mid round 2 in your league as in most formats he likely an early to mid third round pick or late 2nd round pick.

to be clear, I have not run the numbers, but I'd think the tipping point is likely middle round 2 or possibly early round 2..    as per the FFtoday projections Mahomes is expected to outproduce on TD by 5-7 TD over all the other top 3 QBs, this 6 point TD rule gives a major advantage to drafting him if you are putting stock in the fftoday projections (which I have generally found to be fairly decent overall)

so if you want to know if taking him in round 2 makes sense, I"d say it probably does.  especially late in round 2.   Early in round 2 its a lot more murky but its likely close enough that you are not likely going to significantly hurt your team by taking him if he produces anywhere close to the projected numbers for him.    The 6 point TD really gives a significant advantage to QB's who throw a large number of TD's.

[the spanker 28]

23 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I have not run the numbers on this. 

but in a standard PPR league QB TD's are worth 4 points.  so a PPR league where all TD's are worth 6 will create a bigger discrepency between the have and the have not's at QB.

so if (for example) you were thinking about taking Mahomes and if you think he throws 40 TD's,  the scoring difference from standard PPR to your league would be 80 points.    This is very significant.  and most QB's in the top 5are expected to get between 28 and 34 TD's Based on this alone if you believe the FFtoday projections online I would think Mahomes should go in early to mid round 2 in your league as in most formats he likely an early to mid third round pick or late 2nd round pick.

to be clear, I have not run the numbers, but I'd think the tipping point is likely middle round 2 or possibly early round 2..    as per the FFtoday projections Mahomes is expected to outproduce on TD by 5-7 TD over all the other top 3 QBs, this 6 point TD rule gives a major advantage to drafting him if you are putting stock in the fftoday projections (which I have generally found to be fairly decent overall)

so if you want to know if taking him in round 2 makes sense, I"d say it probably does.  especially late in round 2.   Early in round 2 its a lot more murky but its likely close enough that you are not likely going to significantly hurt your team by taking him if he produces anywhere close to the projected numbers for him.    The 6 point TD really gives a significant advantage to QB's who throw a large number of TD's.

Thanks for your feedback here. But how significant is the rushing yardage when factored in?  My league format for passing yardage is 1pt per 20yds but 1pt per 10yds for rushing. 

Is Mahomes still worth a 2nd round pick when I could get guys like Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields, QBs will much higher rushing upside later in the draft?

 

[Ray_T 591]

21 minutes ago, the spanker said:

Thanks for your feedback here. But how significant is the rushing yardage when factored in?  My league format for passing yardage is 1pt per 20yds but 1pt per 10yds for rushing. 

Is Mahomes still worth a 2nd round pick when I could get guys like Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields, QBs will much higher rushing upside later in the draft?

 

well, rush yards are worth double what pass yards.

but Mahomes threw for 5250 yards last year.

for the record neither fields or Lamar have ever put up more than 3300 yards passing in a season.

fftoday projects Lamar to get around 3500 yards passing which is (for me) the top end of the range for him.

they project 3200 yards passing for Fields which I think is high as well.   it isnt too crazy as I have to think he improves from last year to this year with another year of experience but these kind of projections are difficult to get right.     hes a low floor high ceiling player.  probably risky to take this early.

both QB's are capable of getting 1000 yards rushing in a year.  but Mahomes usually gets around 300-350 yards himself and will still outproduce these guys on TD and pass yards.  so I'd say Mahomes is by far the better play.

another guy you may consider is Hurts.  he puts up lots of rush yards and passes for a lot of yards.   not quite what mahomes does but hes young so if hes a bit better throwing the ball than last year he could have a Mahomes like season.

anyhow, good luck

 

Josh Allen is very capable of putting up similar numbers to Mahomes if the team mends the fence with Diggs.  If Diggs is a still a malcontent I'd avoid picking him this early.

[DrG 94]

Doug, as always: thank you again and looking forward to your 2023 Boards. Indispensable for both my dynasty auction and redraft leagues.

Very curious to see where you place some of the big names who’ve moved around!

[Gepetto 988]

2022 QB FF stats 6 points per TD

1. Patrick Mahomes	KC	17	435	648	5,250	41	12	61	358	4	618.7	36.4
2. Josh Allen	BUF	16	359	567	4,283	35	14	124	762	7	582.7	36.4
3. Joe Burrow	CIN	16	414	606	4,475	35	12	75	257	5	540.7	33.8
4. Jalen Hurts	PHI	15	305	459	3,691	22	6	163	763	13	518.5	34.6
5. Geno Smith	SEA	17	399	572	4,282	30	11	68	366	1	485.4	28.6
6. Kirk Cousins	MIN	17	424	643	4,547	29	14	31	97	2	469.7	27.6
7. Justin Herbert	LAC	17	477	699	4,739	25	10	54	147	0	465.9	27.4
8. Trevor Lawrence	JAC	17	387	584	4,113	25	8	62	291	5	459.6	27.0
9. Tom Brady	TB	17	490	733	4,694	25	9	29	-1	1	456.1	26.8
10. Jared Goff	DET	17	382	587	4,438	29	6	29	73	0	447.2	26.3
11. Daniel Jones	NYG	16	317	472	3,205	15	5	120	708	7	414.3	25.9
12. Justin Fields	CHI	15	192	318	2,242	17	9	160	1,143	8	407.0	27.1
13. Aaron Rodgers	GB	17	350	542	3,695	26	11	34	94	1	395.1	23.2
14. Derek Carr	LV	15	305	502	3,522	24	14	24	102	0	359.7	24.0
15. Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	13	259	400	3,548	25	8	24	70	0	357.1	27.5
16. Russell Wilson	DEN	15	292	483	3,524	16	11	55	277	3	348.2	23.2
17. Lamar Jackson	BAL	12	203	326	2,242	17	7	112	764	3	339.0	28.3
18. Dak Prescott	DAL	12	261	394	2,860	23	15	45	182	1	330.4	27.5

 

 

I would wait on QB in a snake draft with 12 teams, 6 points for passing TDs.

[weepaws 2,460]

Of course it’s the smart move.  

[DrG 94]

Fields, Lawrence and Rodgers are 3 who could move further up in those rankings. Herbert hopefully will have a steady O line and healthy receivers for a year, but that doesn’t seem to happen for the Chargers.

[weepaws 2,460]

If Jackson can stay healthy, he’s another one that will move up , his avg is 6th best  on that list.  And Dak also.  

[GobbleDog 816]

All my mock drafts... 1 RB and 3 WR's later, round 5.  Time for QB - Herbert or Lawrence is waiting every time. Love it. Just hope it's holds true for the real draft.

[weepaws 2,460]

Mocks I’ve done, in the double digit rounds, I’ve seen Rodgers, Carr, G Smith, Cousins, lots of talent still left. I’m in no hurry to take a Qb in the single digit rounds. I can draft them late , and stream.  Same with TEs 

[GobbleDog 816]

31 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Mocks I’ve done, in the double digit rounds, I’ve seen Rodgers, Carr, G Smith, Cousins, lots of talent still left. I’m in no hurry to take a Qb in the single digit rounds. I can draft them late , and stream.  Same with TEs 

No doubt, plenty of QB depth.  If I can't get the QB I want in the 5th, then like you I'll be waiting on Rodgers, Cousins, Smith, Goeff... much later. And probably draft 2 Qbs, hoping one hits  Normally, I only draft one.

[Gepetto 988]

I like Tua.

[weepaws 2,460]

3 minutes ago, Gepetto said:

I like Tua.

Love his WRs , but I’m not a fan of Tua concision issues.  

[Ray_T 591]

3 hours ago, weepaws said:

Mocks I’ve done, in the double digit rounds, I’ve seen Rodgers, Carr, G Smith, Cousins, lots of talent still left. I’m in no hurry to take a Qb in the single digit rounds. I can draft them late , and stream.  Same with TEs 

This isnt regular rules.

6 points for all TD's gives a huge advantage to the QB's who get a lot of them.

look at the projected dropoff from Mahomes to Burrow who is the #3 ranked QB.   60 fantasy points.

I have to assume that Mahomes and Allen both go in the same round (likely round 2) and burrow goes in round 3.

if this comes to pass,  thats a minimum 4 fantasy point advantage every single game you play against any opposing QB not namedJosh Allen and larger than that for most.

thats huge.  

if you play the usual Weepaws strategy and draft the 12th ranked QB on the board (fields) you are looking at over 200 fantasy points you need to make up over the course of the season in the rest of your lineup.    Its possible you nail every single pick and still dont make that up when playing with this scoring system.

thats almost 10 fantasy points per game you are giving up and have to make up elsewhere in your lineup.     with normal scoring(4 point for throwing TD) that number shrinks almost by half.

winning with your normal strategy is not impossible but I dont think thats a winning strategy for these rules.

with the 4 point TD, that gap is a lot narrower and your strategy is viable if you draft well elsewhere.    in this format I'd say you are putting yourself behind the 8 ball if you play it this way.

I wouldnt even be totally surprised to see Mahomes and Allen go in round 1 because of how large the dropoff is to Burrow at 3. 

 

 

[weepaws 2,460]

Of the top four on that list , Mahomes is the only one that played in all 17 games, the point total would a little bit tighter if you had in their per game avg.  if I can land G Smith in the double digit rounds and he’s going to avg  28 points per game , i would be very very happy. 

 

[The Football Guru 212]

On 7/22/2023 at 3:31 PM, DrG said:

Doug, as always: thank you again and looking forward to your 2023 Boards. Indispensable for both my dynasty auction and redraft leagues.

Very curious to see where you place some of the big names who’ve moved around!

I am too!

[Ray_T 591]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

Of the top four on that list , Mahomes is the only one that played in all 17 games, the point total would a little bit tighter if you had in their per game avg.  if I can land G Smith in the double digit rounds and he’s going to avg  28 points per game , i would be very very happy. 

 

in this format all QB are worth a whole lot more.   I"m not sure Geno Smith is available in double digit rounds in this format.  I bet hes gone by round 5 or round 6 at the latest.

the rules make it such that QB will go at least 1-2 rounds earlier than normal. (possibly 3)

in a normal draft with normal PPR rules and 4 point passing TD, this strategy works.   in this format I'd be very surprised if you could make it work.

its not quite as extreme as superflex or 2 QB leagues but its a significant bump to the value of the QB. (especially the high end QB)

[weepaws 2,460]

In that format , in which I do play in, both of my leagues 6 points passing tds, after the top 3-4 go the chase for qbs slows down.  

Plenty of qbs still available. And remember it’s draft and stream, until one of those qbs I like better gets let go one reason or another, and hopefully I have enough FAAB to pick one of those qbs up.  It’s a game within the game.  

[Ray_T 591]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

In that format , in which I do play in, both of my leagues 6 points passing tds, after the top 3-4 go the chase for qbs slows down.  

Plenty of qbs still available. And remember it’s draft and stream, until one of those qbs I like better gets let go one reason or another, and hopefully I have enough FAAB to pick one of those qbs up.  It’s a game within the game.  

I guess we will see.

I like your strategy a lot better with 4 point pass TD's than I do in this format.

I trust you at least understand why I feel that way.

[Gepetto 988]

The fantasy experts on SiriusXM have said 4 pt vs 6 pt TDs for QBs doesn't change how they draft. I played in a 6 pt per TD QB league for over 10 years and I drafted a QB late every year, I only missed the playoffs one of those years and I think it was the year I took Michael Vick and Antonio Gates in rounds 3 and 4 the one year I deviated from my strategy.

[the spanker 28]

I've read a few experts opinions stating it's essential to draft a QB early this year especially acquiring an elite rushing mobile QB.

It's like having a RB2 (1pt per 10 yds rushing) rolled into an premier passer (1pt per 20 yds passing) which leverages a significant edge on a week to week basis.  

[Ray_T 591]

29 minutes ago, the spanker said:

I've read a few experts opinions stating it's essential to draft a QB early this year especially acquiring an elite rushing mobile QB.

It's like having a RB2 (1pt per 10 yds rushing) rolled into an premier passer (1pt per 20 yds passing) which leverages a significant edge on a week to week basis.  

depends on which format you are looking at.

in the 6 points for all TD's league you are in its not quite as important because pass TD's are worth the same as rushing TD's.

but in most leagues rush TD's are 6 points and pass TD's 4 points.   Thereby giving an advantage to the rushing QB.

the rush yards are still a very nice bonus and not to be discounted.  you just dont get the bonus for rushing TD's anymore.

[weepaws 2,460]

I see both, some so called experts say draft a Qb , early some disagree and say wait.  6 points per td or 4, it simply comes down to..... personal choice.  Good luck.  

[Ray_T 591]

it doesnt make sense to draft a QB most years.   Weepaws is right about that.

but if one or two QB clearly stand above the rest it becomes a different story in my opinion.    I have stated in past years, its about the dropoff (amount of points you expect to lose) if you dont take your desired player in that round.

so if the projected dropoff at QB by waiting 1 round is greater than the projected dropoff at RB or WR, than a QB should be your choice.

it is more work to figure that out, but well worth the effort.  

I usually only run those numbers for round 1 and sometimes round 2.   

of course how this shakes out will vary based on the scoring system (which everyone should pay particular attention to)

certain rules favour running QB and certain ones the passing QB.

[GobbleDog 816]

42 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

of course how this shakes out will vary based on the scoring system (which everyone should pay particular attention to)

certain rules favour running QB and certain ones the passing QB.

Agreed. My league...  QB's score 0.5 pt per completion and score 6 per TD - run or pass. Bonus points for 300 yd passing games. As such running qb's are devalued. Yet some schmucks are gonna draft Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields way too soon, because their cheatsheet said so. Great for me, but the lesson is - know your scoring.

[Ray_T 591]

40 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

the lesson is - know your scoring.

and it is amazing how many people just choose to ignore it.

arguably the most important thing to consider in fantasy football.

[GobbleDog 816]

11 hours ago, Ray_T said:

and it is amazing how many people just choose to ignore it.

arguably the most important thing to consider in fantasy football.

A friend is in a league with arbitrary 5 point bonus for 100+ yd games. Stupid scoring i know

(99 yds= 9.9 , 100 yds= 15... ridiculous)

I told him if I were in that league (which is ppr), I'd be looking at big yardage Wrs the first two rounds, since Wrs eclipse 100+ yds way more often than Rbs. Last year's top 10 Wrs did it 71 times, while the top 10 Rbs only 45 times, and 9 of those were from just one player - Henry.  Throw in ppr and drafting early Wrs makes good sense in that league, with less injury/under-performance risk than Rbs. Also works because today's NFL has decent Rbs available in later rounds, much more than a decade ago.

[GobbleDog 816]

23 hours ago, weepaws said:

Cousins

Weird stat... In 2022 Cousins was the most hit Qb. In 2021 he was the 3rd most hit. In 2020 he was again the most hit.

Jeesh, surprising Cousins can keep on playing.   Imagine how good he'd have been with a decent o-line.

[weepaws 2,460]

He’s been good all three of those seasons, hasn’t missed a game, maybe that’s why he’s been effective. 

[Ray_T 591]

56 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

A friend is in a league with arbitrary 5 point bonus for 100+ yd games. Stupid scoring i know

(99 yds= 9.9 , 100 yds= 15... ridiculous)

I told him if I were in that league (which is ppr), I'd be looking at big yardage Wrs the first two rounds, since Wrs eclipse 100+ yds more often than Rbs. Last year the top 10 Wrs did it 71 times, while the top 10 Rbs only 45 times, and 9 of those were from just one player - Henry.  Throw in ppr and drafting early Wrs makes good sense in that league, with less injury/under-performance risk than Rbs. Also works because today's NFL has decent Rbs available in later rounds, much later than a decade ago.

any player who consistently gets 100 yard games is fine.  but yeah I get it.

[GobbleDog 816]

16 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

any player who consistently gets 100 yard games is fine.  but yeah I get it.

Agreed lots of ways to win. Just showing how league scoring effects my strategy. And the NFL has changed a lot in recent years. Crazy stat:

2002 to 2012 an average of 7 Rbs had 300+ carries each year. Over the past decade... 1.5. Stick a fork in the bell cow. Yet some draft like nothing changed.

[DrG 94]

Part of the reason Cousins takes a lot of hits is that he is not a great scrambler. Some O line issues, yes, but not all him.

[GobbleDog 816]

On 8/1/2023 at 10:23 AM, DrG said:

Part of the reason Cousins takes a lot of hits is that he is not a great scrambler. Some O line issues, yes, but not all him.

Good point.  Never has been a scrambler and being a million years old ain't helping.

[the spanker 28]

Thank you so much Doug!!! 

I hope you'll be willing to answer any questions from all of us forum posters after we've read through your Big Board Top 200 for PPR leagues. 

I truly love your logic and rationale that goes into putting your rankings together.

I traditionally use them when draft day arrives!