Alvin Kamara Gets 3-Game Suspension

[Mike FF Today 609]

The judge has ruled on Kamara. Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller will hold down the fort until Kamara returns.

 

[makindollaz 40]

So in 12 team PPR…6th or 7th round range?

[Ray_T 596]

slap on the wrist given what he did. 

but that aside, 6th or 7th round is likely decent value

[weepaws 2,478]

Small slap , his current ADP is 6-7th rd, missing three games , with two new Rbs on the team I’m dropping him down into the 8th, seems like he slowed down some last season.  

[GobbleDog 822]

28 yo Kamara's metrics last year indicate a declining Rb. His yac per attempt matched his career low ranking 46th among Rbs, and other metrics ranked him anywhere from 25th to 50th.  The Saints bulked up their backfield giving Jam Williams a 3-year contract and drafting Ken Miller in round 3.  Of course, overpaid Tyson Hill is still there stealing rushing Tds.  And the Saints aren't expected to be an offensive powerhouse this season anyway.

Kamara has missed 2 to 4 games for injury every season since his rookie year, so I expected him to miss a couple games already. And now a 3 game suspension.

His adp is currently RB 27.  Considering everything... I think I'm out.

[Ray_T 596]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

28 yo Kamara's metrics last year indicate a declining Rb. His yac per attempt matched his career low ranking 46th among Rbs, and other metrics ranked him anywhere from 25th to 50th.  The Saints bulked up their backfield giving Jam Williams a 3-year contract and drafting Kendre Miller in round 3.  Of course, overpaid Tyson Hill is still there stealing rushing Tds.  And the Saints aren't expected to be an offensive powerhouse this season anyway.

Kamara has missed 2 to 4 games for injury every season since his rookie year, so I expected him to miss a couple games already. And now a 3 game suspension.

His adp is currently RB27.  Considering everything... I think I'm out.

there is always a situation where a guy like this makes sense.   in  a best ball draft hes a nice late pick.

I do fully agree his numbers have been in decline.   but the team as a whole has been.   and the RB stats tend to follow the fortunes of the team (for the most part)

hes not an RB1 anymore.  that much is clear.  I do think the Saints will be better than they were last year.   Carr seems to like his checkdowns and the Saints dont have a top end TE so I suspect his checkdowns will go to the RB (Kamara) so in PPR I think he might have a decent year.   but in standard leagues the risk far outweighs the potential reward for this guy. 

either way, there is always the possibility the guy falls in your draft.   the key is knowing at what point you flip the switch and decide to buy.   I do think hes a player you can get at a bargain in some leagues.

one thing I will say, hes not a guy you want to overpay for.  no matter how much you happen to like him.

[GobbleDog 822]

28 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

either way, there is always the possibility the guy falls in your draft.

He's "Alvin Kamara."  You know dang well some poor schmuck in everyone's draft is gonna pull the trigger too early just on name recognition.

I consider dart throws to start round 11. He'll be long gone by then.

[Gratefulegg1973 253]

3 games for attempted murder.  Sounds about right for the NFL.  

[weepaws 2,478]

It’s a disgrace, the man should be behind bars.  

[polecatt 404]

28 minutes ago, weepaws said:

It’s a disgrace, the man should be behind bars.  

True, but there's boatloads of people all over the country getting away with a lot worse, especially in DC, but that's another matter, a star RB certainly isn't gonna get locked up.

That said, This will knock Kamara down a little, but it should boost Jamaal Williams a lot. A year off leading the NFL in rushing TDs, he's gonna be the starter for the first 3 games and will likely be an RB1. After that, he's an RB2/Flex. Remember how Latavius Murray would blow up the weeks he was starter. I expect Willams to do the same.

[weepaws 2,478]

10 minutes ago, polecatt said:

True, but there's boatloads of people all over the country getting away with a lot worse, especially in DC, but that's another matter, a star RB certainly isn't gonna get locked up.

That said, This will knock Kamara down a little, but it should boost Jamaal Williams a lot. A year off leading the NFL in rushing TDs, he's gonna be the starter for the first 3 games and will likely be an RB1. After that, he's an RB2/Flex. Remember how Latavius Murray would blow up the weeks he was starter. I expect Willams to do the same.

I agree lots of people getting away with worse, a lot of work for the government, but that’s for another board.  

I think it might knock Kamara ADP a little higher, that plus I think his great days might be behind him, but I’m not so sure he will be higher then his current ADP.  

J Williams I think landed in the perfect spot last season for him, hard to imagine him producing like he last season with all those rushing tds, plus K Miller is going to get a good look in those first three games.  

It’s always hard for me to rank a player based on one yard td scores.  I see players of lesser talent being released based on problems with the law, seems like teams don’t want their name associated with that negative press, unless you have the talent level of a Kamara I guess your name associated with him is okay.  Very hypocritical.  

[polecatt 404]

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

It’s always hard for me to rank a player based on one yard td scores.  

I know what you mean, but that's a very big part of a RBs value, is their chance/ability to score from very short yardage. 

That's really the foundation of a solid fantasy RB.

[Ray_T 596]

On 8/5/2023 at 10:58 AM, polecatt said:

True, but there's boatloads of people all over the country getting away with a lot worse, especially in DC, but that's another matter, a star RB certainly isn't gonna get locked up.

That said, This will knock Kamara down a little, but it should boost Jamaal Williams a lot. A year off leading the NFL in rushing TDs, he's gonna be the starter for the first 3 games and will likely be an RB1. After that, he's an RB2/Flex. Remember how Latavius Murray would blow up the weeks he was starter. I expect Willams to do the same.

well, in this country, if you have enough money you can get away with an awful lot. 

in this case he provided cash to his victim to pay for dental bills though I suspect he massively overpaid for that dental bill to make him drop the charges or refuse to testify.

he got away with it but I am certain it cost him an awful lot of cash.

I dont like it or agree with it, but that is the way it is.

On 8/4/2023 at 4:33 PM, GobbleDog said:

He's "Alvin Kamara."  You know dang well some poor schmuck in everyone's draft is gonna pull the trigger too early just on name recognition.

I consider dart throws to start round 11. He'll be long gone by then.

well, in some leagues/formats you are probably right.  but the average fantasy footballer has gotten a fair bit more knowledgeable in recent years.   and this industry is all about what have you done for me lately (unless you are a rookie or an expected breakout player)

Kamara in terms of actual stats last year was only a middling RB2.   with a 3 game suspension and his tendency to get injured he could easlily fall into RB3 territory.   at that point I think he provides good value as a backup who can actually play if you have a bye or an injury.

I am not certain that would happen but if you take fantasy points per game scored last year and multiply it by projected games played (I'm projecting 12 or 13) hes pretty close to that point. 

due to the bad press, the injury history, the underperforming team, the suspension, there is a lot for people to be wary of.  and when people dont know how to adjust for these things lots of times they just put the guy on their DND list.     so I think its very possible he could fall in some leagues.

I wouldnt bet on it, but it can certainly happen.

I think he still maintains some value in PPR format and Best ball formats.  Standard leagues not as much.

[weepaws 2,478]

It looks like his ADP is going down a little, I thought it might go up just a little, but it doesn’t seem so.  I think K Miller is going to be a wild card among those three Rbs   

 

[GobbleDog 822]

7 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I think he still maintains some value in PPR format and Best ball formats.  Standard leagues not as much.

Kamara has value in ppr for sure. Carr is a dump-off king. 

Interestingly since the announcement - Kamara's rank has decreased to RB 24.... and he's the 60th overall pick. That's late round 5. I guess everyone expected a longer suspension. Way too rich for me.

[Ray_T 596]

6 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Kamara has value in ppr for sure. Carr is a dump-off king. 

Interestingly since the announcement - Kamara's rank has decreased to RB 24.... and he's the 60th overall pick. That's early round 5. I guess everyone expected a longer suspension. Way too rich for me.

he went mid 7th in the july mock.

it was to the point where I was actually looking at him if he fell to me again but ICEMAN got him.

I feel at that point he had reasonable value.

at the 60th pick overall (end round 5) I agree, that is too early.   and if thats where the current ADP is for him in PPR you would be correct to leave him to someone else.

[GobbleDog 822]

10 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

at the 60th pick overall (end round 5) I agree, that is too early.   and if thats where the current ADP is for him in PPR you would be correct to leave him to someone else.

I thought Kamara's true value was about 7th to 8th round in ppr. Even then I was gonna pass looking for higher upside. 5th-6th... that's incredibly optimistic.

[Ray_T 596]

6 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

I thought Kamara's true value was about 7th to 8th round in ppr. Even then I was gonna pass looking for higher upside. 5th-6th... that's incredibly optimistic.

agreed.  thats way too early.

[weepaws 2,478]

Can’t believe that his ADP dropped already, I was picking him up at times in mocks , but not in the 5th-6th rd. 

[makindollaz 40]

Saw that the Saints are working out Kareem Hunt today.  Him signing might be enough for me to just avoid the Saints backfield altogether.

[weepaws 2,478]

I saw that about Hunt to, oh my soul what happens after the first three games. Yea if they pick up Hunt, I would not be interested. 

[weepaws 2,478]

Looks like Hunt will sign with the Saints, that’s four Rbs now removed from my list.  

[weepaws 2,478]

Looks can be deceiving, now Hunt is heading to Indy.