Lamar Jackson

[wolves111 104]

He seems to be getting a lot of hype especially on the FF shows on NFL Network.   I Understand his WR's have been upgraded but he's three years removed from his MVP season. On this week's show he has been rated higher than Burrow and Herbert coming in #4. Too rich for me.

Anyone have thoughts either way? 

[Ray_T 740]

9 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

He seems to be getting a lot of hype

strange, this is one guy who seems to get a lot of hype every year.

certainly given the recent contract, I would hope he would bring it to prove hes worth that much cash.   but I'm not sure we are getting any more Lamar than we got the last 2 years.

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

It's all about health.  You don't even need the MVP season out of him where he threw for 3100 & 36 while rushing for 1200 & 7.  His following year where he also played 15 games (2020), he threw for 2700 & 26 while rushing for 1000 & 7 is viable enough to warrant taking him as a top 5 QB.  Funny thing is, in 2020 he was QB10 with those numbers.  It's funny because those 341 points he got that year would make him QB5 last year.  The big question is, do you think he'll be healthy for at least 15 games?  The secondary question is, do you think comparable numbers would put him top 5 this year?  A final question is, do you think he can fall somewhere between the 2019 MVP season and the 2020 season?

Me?  My answers are No, No, and No... but that doesn't mean they can't be Yes, Yes, and Yes for someone else.

[GobbleDog 985]

My league has weird scoring rewarding big yards and completions, so I have no interest in Jackson. But in normal scoring, particularly with 4 pt pass Td / 6 pt rush, I'd be interested.

His injuries have been ankle and knee sprains, not tears. Still he's getting a track record for missing games. Ravens have a new OC in Todd Monken who's a passing specialist so some expect slightly fewer designed run plays. But there will definitely be plenty - Ravens didn't give Jackson a fat contract to become a pocket Qb - though he's a surprisingly good passer with a career rating of 96.7.  For comparison, Burrow: 100.4, Herbert 96.2, Allen 92.2. 

Interestingly, you'd assume running Qb's are more susceptible to injuries. At least I did til hearing stats indicating Qbs actually get injured more often in the pocket from blindside hits and arms getting hit in throwing motion, etc.

Jackson's average pass yds and Tds were down slightly last couple years, but there should be some "regression to mean."  I project about 65 rush yds, 190 pass yds, 2 Tds per game. (1 turnover per game). Not too shaby, though that might not be quite enough to justify being higher than other Qbs in that adp range. Although my projections are near recent averages so there's upside for more.

Don't understand FFToday's projection of 46 rush yds per game.?. Past four years he averaged 64, 64, 67, 80... ? perplexing.

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

6 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Don't understand FFToday's projection of 46 rush yds per game.?. Past four years he averaged 64, 64, 67, 80... ? perplexing.

My guess is that they're thinking that the Ravens will want to keep Jackson healthy, hence, significantly less (if any), designed runs anymore.  Just run if things break down.

[Ray_T 740]

1 hour ago, TBayXXXVII said:

It's all about health.  You don't even need the MVP season out of him where he threw for 3100 & 36 while rushing for 1200 & 7.  His following year where he also played 15 games (2020), he threw for 2700 & 26 while rushing for 1000 & 7 is viable enough to warrant taking him as a top 5 QB.  Funny thing is, in 2020 he was QB10 with those numbers.  It's funny because those 341 points he got that year would make him QB5 last year.  The big question is, do you think he'll be healthy for at least 15 games?  The secondary question is, do you think comparable numbers would put him top 5 this year?  A final question is, do you think he can fall somewhere between the 2019 MVP season and the 2020 season?

Me?  My answers are No, No, and No... but that doesn't mean they can't be Yes, Yes, and Yes for someone else.

This is a good post.

valid points.    Running QB's seem to have a shorter career life than pocket passers.  likely due to the excessive number of hits they take.

case in point: Cam Newton was done before he was 30.   sure he played beyond that point but he wasnt that good.    dude took a lot of big hits

I noticed last year a lot of teams were bringing the heat against Jackson and having some success with that.   I could see health being an issue if this continues.   Any QB takes too many of those hits, they wont stay heathy for long.

[GobbleDog 985]

10 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

My guess is that they're thinking that the Ravens will want to keep Jackson healthy, hence, significantly less (if any), designed runs anymore.  Just run if things break down.

$260 mill contract ($135 fully guaranteed) to stop doing what made him so successful ?  I'd be shocked.

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

41 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

$260 mill contract ($135 fully guaranteed) to stop doing what made him so successful ?  I'd be shocked.

Having him for 10 games isn't a good way to spend $260M (135M guaranteed), either.  If they improve the team/backfield, they won't need him to rush for 1,000 yards to make the playoffs.  Winning rings is what's important, not games.  If they make the playoffs and he's healthy, then they can take the governor off... that doesn't help us in fantasy though.

[GobbleDog 985]

5 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Having him for 10 games isn't a good way to spend $260M (135M guaranteed), either.  If they improve the team/backfield, they won't need him to rush for 1,000 yards to make the playoffs.  Winning rings is what's important, not games.  If they make the playoffs and he's healthy, then they can take the governor off... that doesn't help us in fantasy though.

Lamar's running is what destroys defenses and makes the Ravens playoff contenders every season. 

BTW, last year's knee injury - hit while in the pocket, '21's ankle injury - hit while in the pocket. 

It's counter intuitive, but he's more likely to get injured throwing than running.

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

1 minute ago, GobbleDog said:

Lamar's running is what destroys defenses and makes the Ravens playoff contenders every season. 

BTW, last year's knee injury - hit while in the pocket, '21's ankle injury - hit while in the pocket. 

It's counter intuitive, but he's more likely to get injured throwing than running.

Rushing for 46 yards per game would put him at almost 800 yards.  That still probably leads the league.  Not sure why you think that the Ravens can't win that way.  Also, if they did upgrade their WR's, one would think that he wouldn't NEED to run as much.

[wolves111 104]

NFL network mentioned the new OC last night during their ff draft. Some really odd picks btw like Mixon at #21.

Anyway they agree he’ll throw more run less but that diminishes his strength of running.

I’d rather Burrow or Herbert this season

[GobbleDog 985]

1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Not sure why you think that the Ravens can't win that way.

Earlier I said Lamar's career passer rating is stunningly high at 96.7.  Gotta wonder what the rating would be if he was a true pocket Qb and defenses didn't focus on him running.  He'd have to thread a lot more needles. Maybe he can.

[Ray_T 740]

6 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Rushing for 46 yards per game would put him at almost 800 yards.  That still probably leads the league.  Not sure why you think that the Ravens can't win that way.  Also, if they did upgrade their WR's, one would think that he wouldn't NEED to run as much.

true.  it is possible that the reason he ran so much was a lack of playmakers at WR.

I'm not 100% sure I'd buy that but it is certainly possible.   it would be interesting to know what percentage of his runs were designed runs and what percentage were pass plays that broke down.

does anyone have those stats?

[DaBeerz 88]

I moved Jackson down on my board, personally, I'd sooner go Burrow/Herbo before him but he's still solid 6-7 QB even if you're risk averse. 

[wolves111 104]

1 minute ago, DaBeerz said:

I moved Jackson down on my board, personally, I'd sooner go Burrow/Herbo before him but he's still solid 6-7 QB even if you're risk averse. 

Agree 

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

3 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

Earlier I said Lamar's career passer rating is stunningly high at 96.7.  Gotta wonder what the rating would be if he was a true pocket Qb and defenses didn't focus on him running.  He'd have to thread a lot more needles. Maybe he can.

 

I think Jackson is talented enough to get the Ravens to the playoffs, but I think he's on borrowed time, because his best asset is his running.  I do think that the Ravens would be best served to be somewhat conservative in the regular season and put the pedal to the medal in the playoffs.  If he keeps getting hurt, and I know his injuries were in the pocket, he's not going to win them enough games to make the playoffs... and if by some chance they still do, he may not be the QB.  Looking at the landscape of the AFC, you have 3 possible playoff teams in the AFC East, 2 other than the Ravens in the North, and 2 others in the West (3 if you count Denver).  Them plus the the winner of the South puts the Ravens up against another 8 (maybe 9), legitimate contenders for 7 spots.  They need him under center.

[GobbleDog 985]

7 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

it would be interesting to know what percentage of his runs were designed runs and what percentage were pass plays that broke down.

does anyone have those stats?

I do not. My wild guess... 75% designed 

[DaBeerz 88]

In my draft, this was the "year of the QB" 5 QBs were keepers and 2 more were taken in the first round. Granted my league has some pretty friendly QB big play scoring points but given there are 6 or 7 potent offenses out there and he's on one of them, it makes sense. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

10 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

true.  it is possible that the reason he ran so much was a lack of playmakers at WR.

I'm not 100% sure I'd buy that but it is certainly possible.   it would be interesting to know what percentage of his runs were designed runs and what percentage were pass plays that broke down.

does anyone have those stats?

Yeah, I don't them off hand, I just know that watching games, I see him say hike and he's off and running before anything happens.  I'm assuming those are designed runs.  I see it a only a couple times, but I'm watching Red Zone.  My guess is that if I'm seeing him do it 2 or 3 times in limited viewing, it's probably happening another 2 or 3 at a minimum.

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

1 minute ago, DaBeerz said:

In my draft, this was the "year of the QB" 5 QBs were keepers and 2 more were taken in the first round. Granted my league has some pretty friendly QB big play scoring points but given there are 6 or 7 potent offenses out there and he's on one of them, it makes sense. 

My league wouldn't help this argument because we start 2 QB's.  We usually have 7 or 8 QB's kept and most of the first round is QB's.

[Ray_T 740]

1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

My league wouldn't help this argument because we start 2 QB's.  We usually have 7 or 8 QB's kept and most of the first round is QB's.

yeah in a keeper league starting 2 QB hed be a keeper.   so you would have very little in the way of useful draft info in that format.

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

14 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

yeah in a keeper league starting 2 QB hed be a keeper.   so you would have very little in the way of useful draft info in that format.

I don't think he's going to be kept in my league, the guy who has him also has Burrow.  Doubt he keeps both.

[Ray_T 740]

Just now, TBayXXXVII said:

I don't think he's going to be kept in my league, the guy who has him also has Burrow.  Doubt he keeps both.

in a 2 QB league?   he could easily keep both.

you sure about that?

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

1 minute ago, Ray_T said:

in a 2 QB league?   he could easily keep both.

you sure about that?

Yeah.  Our keeper format isn't like others, it's salary cap based.  There's money better spent elsewhere.  Virtually no one keeps 2 QB's unless you have a steal.

[DaBeerz 88]

1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah.  Our keeper format isn't like others, it's salary cap based.  There's money better spent elsewhere.  Virtually no one keeps 2 QB's unless you have a steal.

I've never played in a 2 QB league. 

That said in a league with relatively normal QB scoring + big play bonus Lamar probably gets kept for the rushing stat bonuses too. He was one of the 5 QBs kept in my league...

[Ray_T 740]

2 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Yeah.  Our keeper format isn't like others, it's salary cap based.  There's money better spent elsewhere.  Virtually no one keeps 2 QB's unless you have a steal.

ok makes sense.

My 2 QB league has no restrictions like that.  you can keep any 3 players at no cost.

in that format there are usually a few teams that keep 2 QB.

[jrokh 608]

Think Lamar Runs less, but he's never had receiving weapons like this before. New OC loves pushing the ball downfield. If healthy, He'll put up career high in passing yards...

[DaBeerz 88]

47 minutes ago, jrokh said:

Think Lamar Runs less, but he's never had receiving weapons like this before. New OC loves pushing the ball downfield. If healthy, He'll put up career high in passing yards...

If he stays healthy, I'd agree, that is a top 6 offense IMO. 

 

[TBayXXXVII 2,485]

1 hour ago, DaBeerz said:

I've never played in a 2 QB league. 

That said in a league with relatively normal QB scoring + big play bonus Lamar probably gets kept for the rushing stat bonuses too. He was one of the 5 QBs kept in my league...

I'd definitely expect that.

[LaChup 229]

No one ever lives up to the hype after those types of contracts. QB 8-10 this year.