Derrick Henry

[kilroy69 1,039]

Draft kings has henry at +550 to score 15+ tds this year. That is money in the fuckingg baggggggg man.  

[polecatt 405]

2 hours ago, kilroy69 said:

Draft kings has henry at +550 to score 15+ tds this year. That is money in the fuckingg baggggggg man.  

15 is a trick number.

12 and I would say it's great odds.

The odds are he misses a game or two, at least, with injuries. If he does, 15 is a long shot

[Maximum Overkill 848]

2 hours ago, kilroy69 said:

Draft kings has henry at +550 to score 15+ tds this year. That is money in the fuckingg baggggggg man.  

I wouldn't touch that, even with your money. You know Lamar is going to hoard some of those red zone TDs. 

I was thinking more like 12 total. 

[Maximum Overkill 848]

Just now, polecatt said:

15 is a trick number.

12 and I would say it's great odds.

The odds are he misses a game or two, at least, with injuries. If he does, 15 is a long shot

Agree  

[polecatt 405]

1 minute ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Agree  

Yeah, 15 TDs is a high number for any player. There's not really many players that regularly score 15 TDs in a season.

That said, I would not be surprised at all if he were to score 15 TDs. Likely he falls a little short though

[weepaws 2,529]

198 rush att/ 13 tds, that was what Edwards produced last season with L Jackson at Qb.  I think 15 total tds is a very good bet.  

[kilroy69 1,039]

15 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I wouldn't touch that, even with your money. You know Lamar is going to hoard some of those red zone TDs. 

I was thinking more like 12 total. 

The stats say that was not the truth last year. Jackson took 5/25 of the rushes within the 5.  Edwards had 13 tds All while averaging 1.6 ypc within the 5 with a good line.  The Titans were 29/32 in Oline year. 

[Maximum Overkill 848]

56 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

The stats say that was not the truth last year. Jackson took 5/25 of the rushes within the 5.  Edwards had 13 tds All while averaging 1.6 ypc within the 5 with a good line.  The Titans were 29/32 in Oline year. 

He's also due for major regression at 30

[weepaws 2,529]

22 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

He's also due for major regression at 30

Why is he due. There have been Rbs that have had great seasons after turning 30 plus.  E Smith and W Payton are two of them, plus Henry has less mileage then most others on his legs.  I think he’s due for a rb1 season.  15 tds should be no problem. 

[kilroy69 1,039]

58 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

He's also due for major regression at 30

It seems like you are more focused on the idea that every rb drops off at 30 and not the chances he has to produce.  . Moshert had 18 last year at 31. 

[jrokh 574]

The only time Henry reached 15 td's in his career he had over 300 attempts. He isn't going to get close to that. Give me the under. Easily...

[weepaws 2,529]

12 minutes ago, kilroy69 said:

It seems like you are more focused on the idea that every rb drops off at 30 and not the chances he has to produce.  . Moshert had 18 last year at 31. 

21 total 

[weepaws 2,529]

13 minutes ago, jrokh said:

The only time Henry reached 15 td's in his career he had over 300 attempts. He isn't going to get close to that. Give me the under. Easily...

He’s going to be close to that, 250 plus, Edwards had 13 rushing tds on 198 att.  Henry should easily top 15 plus tds.  

[Maximum Overkill 848]

And Baltimore isn't going need 250 touches out of Henry. 

[weepaws 2,529]

46 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

And Baltimore isn't going need 250 touches out of Henry. 

They will feed him. He had 280 last season with the Titans, the Ravens have no else on that team that’s good enough to take away a lot of work from Henry.  Ravens Rbs last season had 365 rush att, Henry should dominate the number of rush att. .  250 plus, 15 plus tds 1050 yards money.  

 

[kilroy69 1,039]

I have another gem for you. He is +6600 for Offensive Player of the year on Betmgm.  Henry had 9tds within the 20 on 34 carries. Baltimore had 73 carries within the 20 last year for 18 tds from the rb and 32 attempts from Qb for 5. I am not saying that Jackson is going to stop running but he rushed more in this situation last year than he has even in his career and that will likely get cut back and result in another 10-12 attempts. Let's say he gets 85 attempts within the 20. He is probably looking at 20-22 tds in an 18 game season and Ap offensive player of the year. 

[weepaws 2,529]

I would take the over on that bet. 

[kilroy69 1,039]

One more thing. Imagine trying to take Henry on without using a hip drop tackle from 5 yards out? How many 1st and goals do you think he gets for that specific rule itself

[weepaws 2,529]

Sure it hard to tackle, when the rules say you can’t.  Should be an outstanding high scoring ff season, but a horrible production on the field.  

[Maximum Overkill 848]

His YPC has gone down the last few seasons and he just hit the dreaded age 30 year.

I still think he'll be competing with Lamar for those designed runs in the red zone. Either way he's still a valuable asset but maybe not as high as most have him ranked. 

[Ray_T 608]

well, at 30 its dicey.   moreso than many would like to admit.    I'd buy but I wouldnt pay a RB1 price for him (due to age)

I know that likely means I wont get him but I've been burned on RB's at this age before.    I think his odds of a good(RB1 level) season are far closer to 50-50 and for me, thats not a first round pick based on the way I assess risk.

 

[weepaws 2,529]

Rb1. 

[Maximum Overkill 848]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

but I wouldnt pay a RB1 price for him (due to age)

I certainly would in redraft, no chance in Dynasty, he's a sell there. 

[Ray_T 608]

3 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I certainly would in redraft, no chance in Dynasty, he's a sell there. 

not saying hes a bad choice there.    I just dont like that much risk in a first round pick. (personal preference)

if he performs, you'll probably do better than you estimated, but if he doesnt perform, your fantasy season goes poof.   so If I can get reasonably similar value at the draft table without inheriting the risks associated with a 30 year old RB, then I'd probably take that out.

[Maximum Overkill 848]

13 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

not saying hes a bad choice there.    I just dont like that much risk in a first round pick. (personal preference)

I don't disagree. He's fallen out of the first round of 10 team drafts and has barely made the first round in 12 teams. 

I'd be ok taking him first round in a 12 teamer if there was an earlier than expected run on RBs. 

 

[weepaws 2,529]

Been doing 12 team mocks, is value is going up, late first rd almost every mock.  Is ADP will be late first rd very soon. 

[jrokh 574]

I have a 2nd rd grade on him. Wouldn’t touch him in rd 1, would much prefer a Wr in that spot…

[Ray_T 608]

4 minutes ago, jrokh said:

I have a 2nd rd grade on him. Wouldn’t touch him in rd 1, would much prefer a Wr in that spot…

or just a RB who can come close to his projected performance who isnt 30 years old (or older)

[weepaws 2,529]

Depending also on league scoring.  

[Maximum Overkill 848]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Been doing 12 team mocks, is value is going up, late first rd almost every mock.  Is ADP will be late first rd very soon. 

What are the other RBs you see going in the first round (12 teams)? I'm only asking because I don't play much redraft. 

 

[weepaws 2,529]

1-4. McCaffrey 

5-8. B Robinson, B Hall

9-12 Barkley, Henry, K Williams, 

 

[GobbleDog 829]

2,030 career carries.... 30 years old.  I guess his #13 Rb ranking bakes that in, but it scares the hell out of me. I want a little more discount.

[Ray_T 608]

44 minutes ago, GobbleDog said:

2,030 career carries.... 30 years old.  I guess his #13 Rb ranking bakes that in, but it scares the hell out of me. I want a little more discount.

that was kinda my thought process as well.

but hey, we all dont have to agree.   if we all ranked everyone the same, the draft would be a boring affair.   I actually find it annoying when someone takes the guy I wanted just before I pick, so if in my league I prefer that your rankings differ from mine haha

[weepaws 2,529]

There have 30 years old that have enjoyed very good success, with less mileage, if Henry was still with the Titans I would be worried, but he’s in a great place.  

[GobbleDog 829]

58 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

but hey, we all dont have to agree.   if we all ranked everyone the same, the draft would be a boring affair.  

I do tons of mocks on ESPN, as well as Yahoo.... amazing the difference in where players go.  Many drafters are just using the rankings set up by those sites.

But then there's all the various rankings from FFToday, FantasyPros, you name it. So it's no wonder that at LIVE drafts, it's ridiculously unpredictable with some falling much later than expected, some going way earlier.  It's both awesome and frustrating.

[Ray_T 608]

15 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

I do tons of mocks on ESPN, as well as Yahoo.... amazing the difference in where players go.  Many drafters are just using the rankings set up by those sites.

But then there's all the various rankings from FFToday, FantasyPros, you name it. So it's no wonder that at LIVE drafts, it's ridiculously unpredictable with some falling much later than expected, some going way earlier.  It's both awesome and frustrating.

well, I used to do a work draft on yahoo.   most people used the yahoo rankings so I'd just go through the yahoo rankings (which are not that good) and find the players who are over/under valued and I planned for the undervalued players to drop in the draft a bit.   I would then tweak my strategy and sometimes pass over a player on the assumption he may drop another round.  

strategy worked brilliantly.

so when that is the scenario, finding problems in the rankings of the draft provider can be a very easy path to victory in an office draft (or something of the like)

[weepaws 2,529]

Hard to learn a lot of info doing mocks, I do then to pass free time.  

[Ray_T 608]

16 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Hard to learn a lot of info doing mocks, I do then to pass free time.  

I dont trust a lot of the mocking sites.  especially for auctions it feels like yahoo throws in an AI who then bids up to a level its programmed to bid(for auction) or drafts according to the draft list of whoever does the Mock draft and doesnt take situation into account.

and in a lot of cases you get a guy who comes in to mock round 1 and then bails for round 2 or 3 and his team essentially drafts from the list.   so the mock doesnt actually help a whole lot in cases like that.

the fftoday mock is useful.  some of the other mocks on other fantasy sites can be useful too.   

but these sites that do 5-10 mocks per hour are mostly useless.    Certainly there is info to glean from it. but once you've seen one or two of these, you've probably seen enough.

[weepaws 2,529]

1 hour ago, Ray_T said:

I dont trust a lot of the mocking sites.  especially for auctions it feels like yahoo throws in an AI who then bids up to a level its programmed to bid(for auction) or drafts according to the draft list of whoever does the Mock draft and doesnt take situation into account.

and in a lot of cases you get a guy who comes in to mock round 1 and then bails for round 2 or 3 and his team essentially drafts from the list.   so the mock doesnt actually help a whole lot in cases like that.

the fftoday mock is useful.  some of the other mocks on other fantasy sites can be useful too.   

but these sites that do 5-10 mocks per hour are mostly useless.    Certainly there is info to glean from it. but once you've seen one or two of these, you've probably seen enough.

Agreed , guys taking a te has the overall pick, doesn’t do much, most ff mocks are good for two to three tds, then the majority leave.  

Fun though. 

[kilroy69 1,039]

His odds for player of the year started out at +7000k then dropped to +6500 then down to +5000 and just recently dropped again to +4000 on betmgm (3300 on ceasers, 4000 on fanduel and +5k on draftkings)