Doug Orth's Rookie Rankings

[Mike FF Today 611]

A fresh rookie batch for 2024. Top 60 overall for 1QB and SuperFlex leagues.

[weepaws 2,497]

Thanks.  That McConkey could be another very good pick up, great ADP right now,  and should be a starter start of season imo. 

[polecatt 404]

First RB is 9th, my how times have changed...

[nobody 2,080]

Another Trey Benson hater I see.

Also, I don't understand why people have Penix ranked over Bo Nix.  Penix is slated to sit for two years.  Bo Nix is going to start week 1 of this year.

[nobody 2,080]

I like the swing on Jermaine Burton by the way.

[nobody 2,080]

Also don't sleep on Emani Bailey.  He's at least better than Rasheen Ali.

[Ray_T 600]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

Another Trey Benson hater I see.

Also, I don't understand why people have Penix ranked over Bo Nix.  Penix is slated to sit for two years.  Bo Nix is going to start week 1 of this year.

he doesnt have a straight path to the starting job.   I think the ranking is fine.

if he had an easier path to a starting Job I'd rate him higher.    I wouldnt be surprised if thats the rationale taken with this ranking.   Nothing personal.  its the situation more than the skillset.

[Maximum Overkill 773]

2 hours ago, Ray_T said:

he doesnt have a straight path to the starting job.   I think the ranking is fine

He absolutely does for dynasty owners. There's no way Conner stays healthy and there's no way Arizona resigns him next season. He's off the books after this year. An unbelievable dynasty pick IMO. 

I think Benson's path to being the starter could be closer than Brooks. Brooks may be limited till mid season. 

[nobody 2,080]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

he doesnt have a straight path to the starting job.   I think the ranking is fine.

if he had an easier path to a starting Job I'd rate him higher.    I wouldnt be surprised if thats the rationale taken with this ranking.   Nothing personal.  its the situation more than the skillset.

Well Jaylen Wright (ranked 12) and Corum (Ranked 13) have clearer paths to starting than Benson (ranked 14)?

It's unadulterated hate I tell ya!

[weepaws 2,497]

I like Benson has a late wait and see bench rb.  Conner is bound to get hurt, so plenty of opportunities coming for Benson. 

[Maximum Overkill 773]

41 minutes ago, nobody said:

Benson (ranked 14)

Benson ranked below Corum and Wright? After the draft? 

How? Benson has the better landing spot and higher draft capital. 

[nobody 2,080]

I see Ladd is quite high.  I figured it out.  Mr. Orth is a Georgia fan.

[The Football Guru 214]

8 hours ago, Ray_T said:

he doesnt have a straight path to the starting job.   I think the ranking is fine.

if he had an easier path to a starting Job I'd rate him higher.    I wouldnt be surprised if thats the rationale taken with this ranking.   Nothing personal.  its the situation more than the skillset.

Bingo. This has less to do with Benson's talent (second-best RB in the draft IMO) and more to do with the Cards' belief in Conner. Arizona (i.e. Gannon) loves himself some Conner. Maybe Conner does not get an extension and becomes a year-to-year guy the rest of the way. I do not claim to have a crystal ball, but I would not bet against Arizona extending Conner one more year.

[The Football Guru 214]

9 hours ago, nobody said:

Another Trey Benson hater I see.

Also, I don't understand why people have Penix ranked over Bo Nix.  Penix is slated to sit for two years.  Bo Nix is going to start week 1 of this year.

I believe more in Penix than I do Nix. In the interest of full disclosure, I began with Nix over Penix when I started the rankings. And Cousins' recovery from an Achilles (and ability to remain healthy) is no sure thing.

[The Football Guru 214]

2 hours ago, nobody said:

I see Ladd is quite high.  I figured it out.  Mr. Orth is a Georgia fan.

Sorry. I root for Nebraska. I don't watch Georgia until the FBS playoffs start (or when I start doing the rookie profiles).

[The Football Guru 214]

10 hours ago, polecatt said:

First RB is 9th, my how times have changed...

This was not a great draft for RBs. Jonathon Brooks would have probably be the 1.04 or 1.05 in my rankings if I wasn't basically expecting him to be about 75% of what I saw of him with Texas before the injury last year.

[weepaws 2,497]

3 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Sorry. I root for Nebraska. I don't watch Georgia until the FBS playoffs start (or when I start doing the rookie profiles).

Alright Go Big Red.  

[Maximum Overkill 773]

7 hours ago, nobody said:

I see Ladd is quite high.  I figured it out.  Mr. Orth is a Georgia fan.

I don't love Ladd but I get it, the landing spot and draft capital are exactly what you want to see. I think he'll be perfectly fine for what Harbaugh does there. 

My question is, if he was such a great route runner and and always open in College then why was he only targeted 37 times with just 30 receptions last season? It's a red flag for me when the gap between talent and production is so wide. 

[Ray_T 600]

10 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

Bingo. This has less to do with Benson's talent (second-best RB in the draft IMO) and more to do with the Cards' belief in Conner. Arizona (i.e. Gannon) loves himself some Conner. Maybe Conner does not get an extension and becomes a year-to-year guy the rest of the way. I do not claim to have a crystal ball, but I would not bet against Arizona extending Conner one more year.

agreed.  Conor averaged nearly 5 yards per carry.   

Guys with that kind of numbers rarely get shown the bench due to performance.   it will take an injury that keeps him off the field that will open the door for this kid.   But thats a lot of uncertainty.

Yes Conor misses a couple games here and there but usually not much more than that.  so the kid will get a cup of coffee but wont likely take over the starting role for at least a year.

[Ray_T 600]

4 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I don't love Ladd but I get it, the landing spot and draft capital are exactly what you want to see. I think he'll be perfectly fine for what Harbaugh does there. 

My question is, if he was such a great route runner and and always open in College then why was he only targeted 37 times with just 30 receptions last season? It's a red flag for me when the gap between talent and production is so wide. 

agreed.  Who else is there in the chargers organization?    if the kid can play, he could be a day 1 starter (or at least in a time share to start the season).

I dont see a lot of depth for the chargers at RB.   So even if he doesnt start on day 1 there is lots of room to move up.

I like the situation.

[The Football Guru 214]

9 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I don't love Ladd but I get it, the landing spot and draft capital are exactly what you want to see. I think he'll be perfectly fine for what Harbaugh does there. 

My question is, if he was such a great route runner and and always open in College then why was he only targeted 37 times with just 30 receptions last season? It's a red flag for me when the gap between talent and production is so wide. 

Fair point, but he did miss five of 14 games with back and ankle injuries. And as is usually the case with back and ankle injuries (missed the first four games of the season b/c of the back), it is difficult to know how much he was affected by either one in the games immediately after he returned.

With that said, you have reason to be concerned. He dealt with four different injuries over his final two seasons. He is a little guy that tries to play like a big guy sometimes.

[nobody 2,080]

I still think people are underrating Nix.

I get that it was en vogue to hate him because he's older and the Oregon system relied on throws at the line of scrimmage, but he's a QB with great accuracy and a capable but not overly powerful arm.  And signs seem to point to him being a football junkie.  

It kind of sounds like another QB Sean Payton had success with, so let's assume those 61 games he started taught him something, and he's smart enough to dissect a defense and do what his coach tells him to do.  That's 3500 and 18 TDs his rookie year and a ceiling of 4500 and 30 by year 4.

Compare that to Penix who has serious injury concerns and is sitting behind Cousins for at least two years.

[Ray_T 600]

16 minutes ago, nobody said:

I still think people are underrating Nix.

I get that it was en vogue to hate him because he's older and the Oregon system relied on throws at the line of scrimmage, but he's a QB with great accuracy and a capable but not overly powerful arm.  And signs seem to point to him being a football junkie.  

when I saw this in the scouting report the first thing I thought was hed be a perfect fit for a west coast offense.

I dont know what kind of offense Payton is likely installing but he has a reputation as a good coach.   I'm sure he will find a way to maximize the kids strengths.

[polecatt 404]

17 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

This was not a great draft for RBs. Jonathon Brooks would have probably be the 1.04 or 1.05 in my rankings if I wasn't basically expecting him to be about 75% of what I saw of him with Texas before the injury last year.

Good drafts for RBs are becoming more and more scarce.

If there's not an Ezekiel Elliott, or Saquon Barkley, then it's a crap shoot.

RBs in general aren't what they used to be.

You could say WRs are the new RBs

[polecatt 404]

If things weren't complicated enough for Johnathan Brooks...

Panthers agree to deal with veteran RB Rashaad Penny

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40094345/panthers-sign-veteran-rb-rashaad-penny-source-says

[weepaws 2,497]

Penny isn’t much.  He won’t make it past preseason. 

[Ray_T 600]

historically hes had a good YPC average.  

whether he sticks may depend on a number of factors which include salary.   if hes on a team friendly deal maybe they ditch someone else.

the link didnt say how much the contract was for, but I'd suggest that his staying power may depend largely on how team friendly that contract actually is.

 

[weepaws 2,497]

Playing was his biggest problem, little over rated coming out college imo, and can’t stay healthy. 

[weepaws 2,497]

51 minutes ago, Ray_T said:

historically hes had a good YPC average.  

whether he sticks may depend on a number of factors which include salary.   if hes on a team friendly deal maybe they ditch someone else.

the link didnt say how much the contract was for, but I'd suggest that his staying power may depend largely on how team friendly that contract actually is.

 

Is ypc is a little miss leading imo, he hasn’t tough the ball that much.  So 5 att 60 yards looks great, but  he’s not so reliable 

[The Football Guru 214]

7 hours ago, polecatt said:

Good drafts for RBs are becoming more and more scarce.

If there's not an Ezekiel Elliott, or Saquon Barkley, then it's a crap shoot.

RBs in general aren't what they used to be.

You could say WRs are the new RBs

All true. I believe 2025 is going to be a good RB class, however. I know not everyone who we think should come out will declare, but some of my early research suggests we could see at least five very good options at the position.

[The Football Guru 214]

10 hours ago, nobody said:

I still think people are underrating Nix.

I get that it was en vogue to hate him because he's older and the Oregon system relied on throws at the line of scrimmage, but he's a QB with great accuracy and a capable but not overly powerful arm.  And signs seem to point to him being a football junkie.  

It kind of sounds like another QB Sean Payton had success with, so let's assume those 61 games he started taught him something, and he's smart enough to dissect a defense and do what his coach tells him to do.  That's 3500 and 18 TDs his rookie year and a ceiling of 4500 and 30 by year 4.

Compare that to Penix who has serious injury concerns and is sitting behind Cousins for at least two years.

I think Nix has a decent chance. I am more hesitant to project certain things I did not see as often from quarterbacks than, say, running backs. Sometimes at running back, you are only going to get to see him attempt to pick up a blitz five times in eight games you watch. For quarterbacks, I hate projecting a certain trait because he should have ample opportunity to show it if he is dropping back 400+ times. For example, I struggle to believe Nix is a great - or even good - deep thrower because he attempted less than 100 deep (20+ yard throws) in his two years at Oregon. One thing that really stood about him was how fidgety he got when his first read wasn't available.

I guess similar things could have been said about Drew Brees at Purdue, which was one of the first schools to embrace the spread more than 20 years ago. He had his share of layup throws too, although I don't recall Brees throwing behind the line of scrimmage nearly as often as Nix did. I think enough of Payton to believe he will make this work with Nix, but I think his floor is also the lowest of the top six quarterbacks as well.

[Maximum Overkill 773]

I don't see it with Bo Nix. I thought Denver reached. If I were to develop a QB then I'd much rather take a shot on the talents of Spencer Rattler. The offense was designed around Nix not taking the chances, Troy Franklin did the heavy lifting. His own coaches didn't trust him. 

"He only threw an average of 6.9 yards down the field and had a screen rate of 21.7%". 

That's unreal 

[Ray_T 600]

8 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

For example, I struggle to believe Nix is a great - or even good - deep thrower because he attempted less than 100 deep (20+ yard throws) in his two years at Oregon. One thing that really stood about him was how fidgety he got when his first read wasn't available.

it is hard to say when you have a small sample size.  so yeah, projecting his deep ball ability is not necessarily easy.    it could also be a function of the WR that were on the roster, coaching preferences etc.

as for the fidgety when the first read not there, that is a bit concerning.   I fully admit.    could also be a case where the WR are not where they should be.   it can be a double edged sword and I dont watch enough of the tape to know how the play is supposed to run.    If I was scouting professionally I'd watch some practices to see.   if the coach has the play run and the WR are where they are supposed to be and hes behaving like that when the first read isnt there, thats very concerning.   but I know at the college level, some WR dont run the route the way they should and end up being in the wrong place.   That makes it real tough on a QB.

Back in the day when I played, That was the toughest part as a QB.   when you go to your second(or third) read and the guy isnt where hes supposed to be.

I have to assume if the team liked him they would have gone to the effort to find out if its a QB issue or a WR issue but as I've gotten older I dont know that the scouting is always that 'in depth'  and the reality is.... it should be.

like I said, I honestly have not seen enough of the guy to be able to make that determination but it is a question that needs to be answered with this guy.  (which is likely the reason he wasnt drafted sooner)   Personally I had him pegged as a 2nd round pick rather than a first rounder, but clearly someone felt differently.

[polecatt 404]

12 hours ago, The Football Guru said:

All true. I believe 2025 is going to be a good RB class, however. I know not everyone who we think should come out will declare, but some of my early research suggests we could see at least five very good options at the position.

Well, 2025 would almost have to be better than this draft by default.

That said, a lot can happen in one season, we're not even to summer camp. Injuries of course, certain player will under perform/over perform and lord knows what else.

Evaluating RBs is much different for the NFL. You have to strongly consider how they are in the passing game. Receiving is important of course, but pass blocking is becoming more and more of a necessity for an RB as well.

I think in the very near future we will see a bit more hybrid RB/WR players like Deebo Samuel, and Cordarelle Patterson.

[nobody 2,080]

 

[polecatt 404]

1 hour ago, nobody said:

 

He's like the new age Dan Marino...

Ton of talent, but on a team that won't give him a pot to pee in

[nobody 2,080]

Check the date of the tweet.  That was the criticism of Justin Herbert coming out of Oregon.

[Maximum Overkill 773]

I was a bit shocked how far Spencer Rattler fell in one of my Superflex leagues. He fell to the early 6th round where I traded up and grabbed him. 

People were mentioning him as a possible 2nd round pick after the combine. If someone has to sit at the end of my Superflex bench it has to be a rookie QB. 

QBs are currency. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,154]

On 5/7/2024 at 12:19 AM, The Football Guru said:

I believe more in Penix than I do Nix. In the interest of full disclosure, I began with Nix over Penix when I started the rankings. And Cousins' recovery from an Achilles (and ability to remain healthy) is no sure thing.

I thought the same as @nobody regarding Nix and Penix.  I'm ok with your answer, but I will say that I am significantly more comfortable putting faith in Sean Payton than Raheem Morris, when it comes to developing a QB.  Drew Brees / Josh Freeman is too vast to ignore.  In that sense, I can't fathom a scenario where I take Penix over Nix.

[Ray_T 600]

well, it feels like Penix is a better deep ball thrower and Nix is a better scrambler.  While Penix has that tool in the toolbox, the fact hes been injured a lot likely makes him a bad candidate to play this way.   if I was his coach I'd tell him not to scramble unless he absolutely has to.   I'd groom him as a pocket passer.    I think this kid will be able to play if he has a good line in front of him.    but that good line is necessary.   not only to aid his development but  also to keep him from taking too many hits.    if you dont want your QB to scramble, you gotta build a good line to keep a clean pocket for your guy to work behind.