Christian Josiah Olave

[GobbleDog 979]

'22) 15 gm, 72 rec, 119 tar, 1,042 yds, 4 Td

'23) 16 gm, 87 rec, 138 tar, 1,123 yds, 5 Td

Cons - hasn't proven much so far. Derek Carr is the most mediocre Qb of all-time. Kamara eats too many targets.

Pros - possible 3rd year breakout for former 1st rd pick. Another year of chemistry with Carr. Saints have new o-coordinator (Viking's coordinator in '21 when Jefferson blew up with 167 targets).

Tid-bits - Michael Thomas gone (64 tar) and Kamara's metrics were awful - might mean fewer touches with new coordinator. Volume is king and Olave is probably looking at 150+ targets. Whether Carr can deliver is another story.

So, it's mid to late 2nd rd and you're looking for a Wr - ya see Olave. Who's interested?

[JagFan 149]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

'22) 15 gm, 72 rec, 119 tar, 1,042 yds, 4 Td

'23) 16 gm, 87 rec, 138 tar, 1,123 yds, 5 Td

Cons - hasn't proven much so far. Derek Carr is the most mediocre Qb of all-time. Kamara eats too many targets.

Pros - possible 3rd year breakout for former 1st rd pick. Another year of chemistry with Carr. Saints have new o-coordinator (Viking's coordinator in '21 when Jefferson blew up with 167 targets).

Tid-bits - Michael Thomas gone (64 tar) and Kamara's metrics were awful - might mean fewer touches with new coordinator. Volume is king and Olave is probably looking at 150+ targets. Whether Carr can deliver is another story.

So, it's mid to late 2nd rd and you're looking for a Wr - ya see Olave. Who's interested?

Two NFL season…Two 1,000 yard seasons…. I’d say the dude is already out.  And it should be obvious what you’re getting.  Should he add 4-5 more TD’s you’ve gotten great value at his ADP.

[Lake209 43]

I shuffle him to draft between 11th to 16th best WR (ppr) on the board.  Another Pro: have heard that he and Carr did some off-season work to improve chemistry.  Another Con: history of multiple concussions. The first one he gets will probably result in a medical-requirement to stay out 3+ games. (Hoping he does not get any, obviously.)

[weepaws 3,152]

Non ppr, I’ll probably pass, in my ppr, I would prefer 3rd if at all.   

[GobbleDog 979]

18 hours ago, JagFan said:

Two NFL season…Two 1,000 yard seasons…. I’d say the dude is already out.  And it should be obvious what you’re getting.  Should he add 4-5 more TD’s you’ve gotten great value at his ADP.

I'm still soul searching over which Wr I prefer in the 2nd.... Olave, Adams, or London

I originally dismissed Olave out of hand with Carr at qb, but I'm starting to warm up to him. The two 1,000 yd seasons with poor qb play is impressive. He's certainly proved more than London so far, who might have a bit more target competition with Pitts, but of course now has Cousins. Who knows if it all clicks year one. Adams just goes against my ethos that it's better to get out a year early than a year late. Still hard to ignore that volume.

One knock I'd heard on Olave is Carr's air yd/completion ratio (6.5) was fairly short, while Olave's adot (13.3) was high... the numbers don't jive. "Double team Olave past ten yards, and Carr checks it down."  Might be some truth, but Kamara's target volume accounts for some of that. And there's a new coordinator in town.

[MDC 7,120]

Olave aid invisible to me at his ADP. His best case scenario is something like 1,200 yards and 7-8 TDs. That’s valuable, but why draft him in the early to mid 2nd when Evans, Metcalf, Moore etc. are available a round later? Olave is getting drafted at his ceiling with no upside because of Carr. Hard pass.

[GobbleDog 979]

13 hours ago, MDC said:

best case scenario is something like 1,200 yards and 7-8 TDs. That’s valuable, but why draft him in the early to mid 2nd when Evans, Metcalf, Moore etc. are available a round later?

I wouldn't call those stats "best case." Heck, he nearly had that last year and missed a game.  2nd year with Carr, new coordinator - there's room for improvement... probably not a lot, but unlikely to fall much below it either.

I'm slightly out on Evans who's yet another year older, had an incredible deep catch rate which doesn't seem sustainable, the Bucs lost their coordinator - the Qb Whisperer which concerns me with Mayfield, and Goddard is moving to slot which might change things. Don't hate Evans, just a bit risky. Had him last year - did well, but now feels like the right time to get out.

Totally out on Moore... the target competition in Chicago is ridiculous with additions of Allen, Swift, and Odunze, not to mention Kmet (90 tar last year) still there. To top it off, the rookie qb. 

As for Metcalf... I'm in like Flynn! Hoping he's my 3rd round Wr.  Match nicely with my 1st and 2nd round Wrs. Oh yeah, that's how I roll. 

[kilroy69 1,215]

I will not draft any wr that has Carr as his qb. He is putrid on a daniel jones level 

[weepaws 3,152]

His ADP hold no value. 

[GobbleDog 979]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

His ADP hold no value. 

I can't argue the lack of value. Wr 20 last year (1-17). Current adp Wr 13.  I expect some improvement, but probably not higher than a Wr 13 finish. At the very least he seems a bit safer than other Wr options in that range.

Adams, London, Olave... who would you take?

[weepaws 3,152]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

I can't argue the lack of value. Wr 20 last year (1-17). Current adp Wr 13.  I expect some improvement, but probably not higher than a Wr 13 finish. At the very least he seems a bit safer than other Wr options in that range.

Adams, London, Olave... who would you take?

Kupp,  I’m moving him way up, and my last few mocks I’ve been in , Kupp has gone second rd.  

[ThatDude 12]

I drafted Olave as a rookie, and was my keeper last year. Our league rules allow you to keep up to two players drafted, and you just lose the prior round pick.

 

for example, drafted Olave 9th round rookie year, last year kept him for my 8th round pick, this year I’ll keep him for my 7th round pick.

i think he a steal 3rd round and beyond but Carr does suck.

[ThatDude 12]

Olave is one of my keepers, and while not thrilled with Carr at QB, only cost me my 7th round pick to keep him so I saw a lot of value there compared to what WR’s are available in the 7th

[weepaws 3,152]

1 hour ago, ThatDude said:

Olave is one of my keepers, and while not thrilled with Carr at QB, only cost me my 7th round pick to keep him so I saw a lot of value there compared to what WR’s are available in the 7th

Agreed