LIBERATION DAY: USA and China agree to a 90 day pause on most new tariffs

[RLLD 4,154]

6 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

The forecast was 2.4% for April, we came in at 2.3%.  Core inflation was 2.8%.  We saw a lower price of oil due to the slowdown introduced by the tariffs.

Forecast for end of year is 3.5%

 

Right.  If Trump fails to punch energy down I could see tariffs potentially showing in September or perhaps October for select industries, but not dramatically, that's not how it works. As long as he drops energy people will be rather happy, moreover the real inflation impacts would be employment and while that will uptick I cannot see it being dramatic for a few more years.

[RLLD 4,154]

3 minutes ago, MDC said:

How do you square that with Trump’s campaign promise to lower costs? If you tariff foreign goods to make US manufacturing more appealing, obviously that’s going to raise costs. Especially if those jobs are unionized and better paying. 

The notion that you can fix a problem in some utopian way is not realistic, the hard work.....the stuff no politician would try for the last five decades is now being done, to fix these issues......and once fixed, we enjoy price drops that are sustainable  not simply to placate the voter for the next election.  The process will unfold and with it, improvements that even Democrats would struggle to fock up.

[MDC 7,168]

7 minutes ago, RLLD said:

The notion that you can fix a problem in some utopian way is not realistic, the hard work.....the stuff no politician would try for the last five decades is now being done, to fix these issues......and once fixed, we enjoy price drops that are sustainable  not simply to placate the voter for the next election.  The process will unfold and with it, improvements that even Democrats would struggle to fock up.

But tariffs don’t lower prices. They make US products more appealing by boosting the cost on foreign goods. 

There’s an argument to be made that US consumers should be willing to pay more for Made in the USA products for the betterment of the country. But that’s not an argument Trump has ever made.

[thegeneral 2,990]

Sorry RLLD, trade wars are over. These will be a foggy memory by the Fall. Trivial changes will be made, they’ll help some places and hurt in others in ways we won’t know for a bit.

Good riddance and let’s get on a heater here.

[RLLD 4,154]

1 minute ago, MDC said:

But tariffs don’t lower prices. They make US products more appealing by boosting the cost on foreign goods. 

There’s an argument to be made that US consumers should be willing to pay more for Made in the USA products for the betterment of the country. But that’s not an argument Trump has ever made.

Not always, and not in the way you appear to think they do.  The cost of doing business fluxuates, but prices do not change in tandem, there is not an immediate extension to prices, and with regard to tariffs, can be easily muted by really powerful price influences such as food, energy and jobs

Consider the source......these news outlets lied about many things over the years in servitude to a political party.....and now they all want to play victim.....that they were lied to by the government.....an admission they are not being critical, thinking through it.....acting on our behalf......so please be careful what you accept from modern media

[MDC 7,168]

3 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Not always, and not in the way you appear to think they do.  The cost of doing business fluxuates, but prices do not change in tandem, there is not an immediate extension to prices, and with regard to tariffs, can be easily muted by really powerful price influences such as food, energy and jobs

Can you explain in clear English how making foreign products more expensive is going to lead to long term price decreases in the US? No one on earth seems to believe this except for you and Trump.

[Ron_Artest 1,112]

22 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Right.  If Trump fails to punch energy down I could see tariffs potentially showing in September or perhaps October for select industries, but not dramatically, that's not how it works. As long as he drops energy people will be rather happy, moreover the real inflation impacts would be employment and while that will uptick I cannot see it being dramatic for a few more years.

So you're saying that Trump dropped energy?  How did he do that?

[RLLD 4,154]

1 minute ago, MDC said:

Can you explain in clear English how making foreign products more expensive is going to lead to long term price decreases in the US? No one on earth seems to believe this except for you and Trump.

Because the costs do not always reach the consumer, prices fluxuate all the time, its not some unusual occurrence, its constant.....but we do not see it, companies absorb it  most of the time, unless its something with teeth....like energy, that is inescapable and usually within 90 days if not faster. Again, the media is selling you to serve a political party......now we can watch as they lie and lie.....are wrong and then amend their lies.....as they have done repeatedly.

[RLLD 4,154]

4 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

So you're saying that Trump dropped energy?  How did he do that?

He has lowered energy prices through increased production and deregulation; though his pulling back from green energy has hurt that segment.  

By boosting domestic production and expediting the process for leasing federal lands for oil and gas development he has cut almost 6 months off of the process.Goldman is now predicting prices to remain in the $40 to $50 per barrel range; and if he stays the course we could see $30 per barrel....   Most people decry the Canada and Mexico tariffs on this issue, but this is where the overly simplistic view of markets starts to fail...... there is a reason the government likes to use Core CPI, because it eliminates the volatility of things like energy and food......why?   Well, because it takes very little to move them,  and all you have to do is what he has done to move it......

[MDC 7,168]

10 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Because the costs do not always reach the consumer, prices fluxuate all the time, its not some unusual occurrence, its constant.....

You said we’d enjoy sustainable price drops. I guess im a little confused as to how raising the costs of some products will actually make things cheaper.

Trump works in mysterious ways.  

[Ron_Artest 1,112]

12 minutes ago, RLLD said:

He has lowered energy prices through increased production and deregulation; though his pulling back from green energy has hurt that segment.  

By boosting domestic production and expediting the process for leasing federal lands for oil and gas development he has cut almost 6 months off of the process.Goldman is now predicting prices to remain in the $40 to $50 per barrel range; and if he stays the course we could see $30 per barrel....   Most people decry the Canada and Mexico tariffs on this issue, but this is where the overly simplistic view of markets starts to fail...... there is a reason the government likes to use Core CPI, because it eliminates the volatility of things like energy and food......why?   Well, because it takes very little to move them,  and all you have to do is what he has done to move it......

He hasn't boosted production by any measure.  From what I gather, Oil production decreased in Feb.  Source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_crude_oil_production

And your fantasy about sub $50 oil is ludicrous.  With oil that cheap it's not profitable for US shale production.  Source: https://www.axios.com/2025/04/11/oil-deals-slump-prices-fall

Rig counts will drop with sub $60 oil.  Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-output-hikes-trade-wars-have-us-oil-producers-wary-drill-baby-drill-2025-04-11/

What has lowered the price of oil is actually the tariffs have put a damper on global growth forecasts and thus oil demand.  Add in the fact that OPEC+ has increased production as well.

Therefore I conclude that you have no idea what you're talking about.  Have a great day.

[RLLD 4,154]

17 minutes ago, MDC said:

You said we’d enjoy sustainable price drops. I guess im a little confused as to how raising the costs of some products will actually make things cheaper.

Trump works in mysterious ways.  

Because of the way this is being done, the solution is sustainable....conversely, the band aide approach which accentuates appeasement of the people over solutions is not. Its odd this needs to be explained to you.

[MDC 7,168]

9 minutes ago, RLLD said:

Because of the way this is being done, the solution is sustainable....conversely, the band aide approach which accentuates appeasement of the people over solutions is not. Its odd this needs to be explained to you.

It’s odd that you think putting tariffs on foreign goods will lower costs for US consumers.

How’s that supposed to work?

[RLLD 4,154]

16 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

He hasn't boosted production by any measure.  From what I gather, Oil production decreased in Feb.  Source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_crude_oil_production

And your fantasy about sub $50 oil is ludicrous.  With oil that cheap it's not profitable for US shale production.  Source: https://www.axios.com/2025/04/11/oil-deals-slump-prices-fall

Rig counts will drop with sub $60 oil.  Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-output-hikes-trade-wars-have-us-oil-producers-wary-drill-baby-drill-2025-04-11/

What has lowered the price of oil is actually the tariffs have put a damper on global growth forecasts and thus oil demand.  Add in the fact that OPEC+ has increased production as well.

Therefore I conclude that you have no idea what you're talking about.  Have a great day.

He has increased production, but you are missing the point....that increase need not be evident right now to influence prices......and that is important.

Now, your issue with prices of oil is not with me, its with Goldman.....

I am gratified that you acknowledged OPEC, it shows that the DO actually have some grasp of energy costs, though the rest of your diatribe suggests a really simplistic understanding, which is a little confusing.

[RLLD 4,154]

2 minutes ago, MDC said:

It’s odd that you think putting tariffs on foreign goods will lower costs for US consumers.

How’s that supposed to work?

I asserted that tariffs were unlikely to cause prices to rise, because they are such a small part of the puzzle; moreover, in a recent exchange with another poster I directly refuted the notion that they lower prices....because....again.....their influence is not really much to worry about.  They do not contribute significantly to a problem, and are even less effective at "fixing" one.....there were three instances over the last 150 years where fixing was attempted....and it was a failure.....becaaaauuuuuuseeee......Tariffs cannot influence very well.

[Ron_Artest 1,112]

4 minutes ago, RLLD said:

He has increased production, but you are missing the point....that increase need not be evident right now to influence prices......and that is important.

Now, your issue with prices of oil is not with me, its with Goldman.....

I am gratified that you acknowledged OPEC, it shows that the DO actually have some grasp of energy costs, though the rest of your diatribe suggests a really simplistic understanding, which is a little confusing.

No he hasn't increased production, that is a lie. 

There is also no evidence that speculation has driven down the price.

Your own link supports what I just said

Quote

 

“Oil prices would likely exceed our forecast if the Administration were to reverse tariffs sharply and deliver a reassuring message to markets, consumers, and businesses,” Goldman analysts said in their note.

In its latest price update, Goldman predicted weaker-than-expected oil demand growth this year

 

Simplistic understanding?  You believe that $30 oil will make US production profitable?  Care to explain that to me?

[MDC 7,168]

3 minutes ago, RLLD said:

I asserted that tariffs were unlikely to cause prices to rise, because they are such a small part of the puzzle; moreover, in a recent exchange with another poster I directly refuted the notion that they lower prices....because....again.....their influence is not really much to worry about.  They do not contribute significantly to a problem, and are even less effective at "fixing" one.....there were three instances over the last 150 years where fixing was attempted....and it was a failure.....becaaaauuuuuuseeee......Tariffs cannot influence very well.

You said something about sustainable lower prices. I assumed that meant due to tariffs since we’re in a tariff thread. Guess I read your post wrong.

Personally I think Don is just doing loud performative stuff of little consequence. 

[RLLD 4,154]

3 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

No he hasn't increased production, that is a lie. 

There is also no evidence that speculation has driven down the price.

Your own link supports what I just said

Simplistic understanding?  You believe that $30 oil will make US production profitable?  Care to explain that to me?

He has in fact increased production, denying is fine...up to you of course..... then again, you might want to reconsider as later I might pull this one back up as you learn more.  Your understanding is overly simplistic, but not dramatically so.  It is rather in line with the less thorough understanding that dominates much of media and government, in essence you know what you have been told.....you are easy to lie to apparently.

The problem for you will be missed opportunities, you are Gutter right? Remember when I said the housing market would fail? And you laughed? Then you cried about your losses in investments? yeah, you seem to remain that kind of stupid.....

[RLLD 4,154]

8 minutes ago, MDC said:

You said something about sustainable lower prices. I assumed that meant due to tariffs since we’re in a tariff thread. Guess I read your post wrong.

Personally I think Don is just doing loud performative stuff of little consequence. 

Gotcha, I see the disconnect.

My inference to sustainability simply acknowledges that the proper foundations are being set for sustainable improvements for people.   This is what politicians have always avoided because it does require some up front work and potential hardships.......and if you are a politician you want to stay in power, so you do things to appease people rather than build a sustainable solution.....which is far more difficult.

[Ron_Artest 1,112]

10 minutes ago, RLLD said:

He has in fact increased production, denying is fine...up to you of course..... then again, you might want to reconsider as later I might pull this one back up as you learn more.  Your understanding is overly simplistic, but not dramatically so.  It is rather in line with the less thorough understanding that dominates much of media and government, in essence you know what you have been told.....you are easy to lie to apparently.

The problem for you will be missed opportunities, you are Gutter right? Remember when I said the housing market would fail? And you laughed? Then you cried about your losses in investments? yeah, you seem to remain that kind of stupid.....

You're gonna flex over something that happened 20 years ago?

Perhaps you can provide some evidence that Trump has increased oil production, otherwise we will go with my evidence that show that oil production decreased in February and you can admit you lied.

[RLLD 4,154]

17 hours ago, Ron_Artest said:

You're gonna flex over something that happened 20 years ago?

Perhaps you can provide some evidence that Trump has increased oil production, otherwise we will go with my evidence that show that oil production decreased in February and you can admit you lied.

Dpnt think of it as a flex, consider that there might be more you do not yet know or understand.   Rather than rely on the limited scope of your awareness, consider the rest of the possibilities.

[Ron_Artest 1,112]

1 hour ago, RLLD said:

Dpnt think of it as a flex, consider that there might be more you do not yet know or understand.   Rather than rely on the limited scope of your awareness, consider the rest of the possibilities.

Anytime you want to show me the data that "drill baby drill" increased production go right ahead.  Otherwise you're a liar.

[Ron_Artest 1,112]

Walmart warns it will raise prices because of tariffs.  Whoops!

[RLLD 4,154]

10 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

Anytime you want to show me the data that "drill baby drill" increased production go right ahead.  Otherwise you're a liar.

I am not the liar here.   That you lie to yourself is no harming anyone other than you.   So, do as you please.   What you believe really becomes irrelevant, and not unlike that time years ago....YOU end up being the one harmed.

[SaintsInDome2006 420]

Oil & gas were at record levels under Biden. Also we were the world’s biggest exporter under Biden. Oil prices declined now because orders are down because global market buyers project a downturn in economic activity.

The one funny thing is the declining oil price really hurts Putin & Russia. Law of unintended consequence.

[Hardcore troubadour 14,994]

39 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Oil & gas were at record levels under Biden. Also we were the world’s biggest exporter under Biden. Oil prices declined now because orders are down because global market buyers project a downturn in economic activity.

The one funny thing is the declining oil price really hurts Putin & Russia. Law of unintended consequence.

Our record levels. Now do the rest of the world. Don’t you remember Biden going to Saudi begging them to get opec to pump more? Or lifting sanctions on Venezuela?  Oblivious to what just happened. 

[SaintsInDome2006 420]

16 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Our record levels. Now do the rest of the world. Don’t you remember Biden going to Saudi begging them to get opec to pump more? Or lifting sanctions on Venezuela?  Oblivious to what just happened. 

You have a lot here. As a conservative you’re in favor of lifting sanctions against a cruel, communist regime?

[Hardcore troubadour 14,994]

5 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

You have a lot here. As a conservative you’re in favor of lifting sanctions against a cruel, communist regime?

I’m America first. George Will is a “ conservative “ and I ain’t with him. 

[Ron_Artest 1,112]

18 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

You have a lot here. As a conservative you’re in favor of lifting sanctions against a cruel, communist regime?

He's not a conservative, he's a maga.

[SaintsInDome2006 420]

15 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I’m America first. George Will is a “ conservative “ and I ain’t with him. 

ok, you’re in favor of lifting sanctions against North Korea & Cuba as well?

[SaintsInDome2006 420]

19 minutes ago, Ron_Artest said:

He's not a conservative, he's a maga.

I call that nationalist, though sometimes it veers into socialism. The government subsidizing Big Ag to pay for the ad valorum taxes aka tariffs in Trump1 is an example.

[Hardcore troubadour 14,994]

1 hour ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

ok, you’re in favor of lifting sanctions against North Korea & Cuba as well?

What are you talking about? I pointed out that Biden lifted oil sanctions on Venezuela. What’s the matter with you ? Desperate for a virtue treat? 

[SaintsInDome2006 420]

1 hour ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

What are you talking about? I pointed out that Biden lifted oil sanctions on Venezuela.

I asked you if you're in favor of lifting sanctions from Venezuela, I was under the impression you are. Did I misunderstand you?

[Hardcore troubadour 14,994]

34 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I asked you if you're in favor of lifting sanctions from Venezuela, I was under the impression you are. Did I misunderstand you?

I’m in favor of embargoing Venezuela completely until they come to heel and admit what they did and make it right. 

[SaintsInDome2006 420]

2 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

I’m in favor of embargoing Venezuela completely until they come to heel and admit what they did and make it right. 

I'm in favor of sanctions on Venezuela as well. But you raised it, not sure why. All I did was point out that the US was at an all time high generating oil & LNG and exporting it. You thought he should have done more? But also not lift sanctions against VZ?

 

[SaintsInDome2006 420]

I wish I could run an AI-driven focus group where what looks like film of Biden muttering and slurring Trump's exact words about "groceries" was put in front of a maga audience. They'd be throwing their sodas and snacks at the screen.

[TBayXXXVII 2,495]

3 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

I wish I could run an AI-driven focus group where what looks like film of Biden muttering and slurring Trump's exact words about "groceries" was put in front of a maga audience. They'd be throwing their sodas and snacks at the screen.

Says the guy who listened to dopes for 4 year, who are now claiming they didn't know Biden was as bad as he was.

[SaintsInDome2006 420]

1 minute ago, TBayXXXVII said:

-Says the guy who listened to the dopes for 4 year who are now claiming they didn't know Biden was as bad as he was.

Oh no, I was told, we could all see his condition. Hell maga railed about it 2019-2020. My point was that he was always mentally, intellectually, physically and morally superior to Trump. 

[TBayXXXVII 2,495]

Just now, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Oh no, I was told, we could all see his condition. Hell maga railed about it 2019-2020. My point was that he was always mentally, intellectually, physically and morally superior to Trump. 

... and you want your opinions to be taken seriously. 

[SaintsInDome2006 420]

 

23 minutes ago, TBayXXXVII said:

... and you want your opinions to be taken seriously. 

Pfft of course not, I just try to speak honestly to you.

Just as an example below is a sample question from the Biden-Trump debate. This was Biden at his absolute worst, his most feeble, elderly. Trump looks like a madman to me, but to you ok fine. Look at the question and look at Trump's answer.

 

Jake Tapper (01:06:59

You still have 82 seconds left. Are there any other measures that you think that would be able to help keep Social Security solvent or is that one enough?

Joe Biden 

Well, that one enough will keep it solvent. But the biggest thing we’ll do if we defeat this man because he wants to get rid of Social Security, he thinks there’s plenty to cut in Social Security. He’s wanting to cut Social Security and Medicare both times. And if you look at the program put forward by the House Republican Caucus that I believe supports is in fact wanting to cut it as well. The idea that we don’t need to protect our seniors is ridiculous.

And by the way, the American public has greater healthcare coverage today than ever before and under the ACA as I said. You’re in a circumstance where 40 million would not have insurance because they have a pre-existing condition. The only thing that allows them to have that insurance is the fact that they in fact are part of the ACA.

And by the way, the other thing is we’re in a situation where we talk about education for Black communities. I’ve raised the amount of money for Pell grants by another $8,000. So anybody making under $70,000 a year is going to be able to get $15,000 towards their tuition. He just doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

Jake Tapper 

Thank you, President Biden. President Trump?

Donald Trump

I’ve dealt with politicians all my life. I’ve been on this side of the equation for the last eight years. I’ve never seen anybody lie like this guy. He lies. I’ve never seen it. He could look you in the face about so many other things too. And we mentioned the laptop, we mentioned Russia, Russia, Russia, Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine. Everything he does is a lie. It’s misinformation and disinformation. The losers and suckers story that he made up is a total lie on the military. It’s a disgrace.

But Social Security, he’s destroying it because millions of people are pouring into our country and they’re putting them onto Social Security. They’re putting them onto Medicare/Medicaid. They’re putting them in our hospitals. They’re taking the place of our citizens. What they’re doing to the VA, to our veterans is unbelievable. Our veterans are living in the street and these people are living in luxury hotels. He doesn’t know what he’s doing and it’s really coming back. I’ve never seen such anger in our country before.