Illegal Immigration and the Impact on National Home Prices

[The Real timschochet 7,041]

12 minutes ago, MDC said:

It’s an interesting question. On the one hand, you’d expect housing prices to go down if an estimated 3-4 million homes were suddenly vacated. On the other hand, if you deported 15 million or so illegals tomorrow construction costs and inflation would spike across the board.

It’s all academic though, because there will still be many millions of illegals here when Trump leaves office in 2028.

More than when he arrived. 

[squistion 2,308]

22 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

More than when he arrived. 

That I doubt. The continued ICE raids will have to reduce the numbers of undocumented crossing the border.

[TimHauck 3,031]

15 hours ago, squistion said:

That I doubt. The continued ICE raids will have to reduce the numbers of undocumented crossing the border.

Agree.  And for awhile at least, the ones that remain will be less likely to show up for work than they used to be.

[TimHauck 3,031]

On 7/15/2025 at 1:23 PM, TimHauck said:

Are you acknowledging that the price impact would be felt primarily in specific areas most impacted?

Bump for @jonnyutah

[seafoam1 3,208]

1 minute ago, TimHauck said:

Bump for @jonnyutah

You do realize everyone already knows you are just making shlt up right?

[TimHauck 3,031]

On 7/13/2025 at 8:56 AM, TimHauck said:

IMO, if home prices come down in the next few years, it’s going to be driven by increases in unemployment.  Of course I know if that happens people will claim it was because of mass deportations.

Only took a month to prove my prediction correct.  He even claims it was the biggest driver in blue cities, lololol

 

[TimHauck 3,031]

On 7/15/2025 at 1:23 PM, TimHauck said:

Are you acknowledging that the price impact would be felt primarily in specific areas most impacted?

Bump for @jonnyutah

[seafoam1 3,208]

4 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Bump for @jonnyutah

You are bumping it for timhack you idiot. We all know it. You lost and you still crave attention for some reason. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,583]

24 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Only took a month to prove my prediction correct.  He even claims it was the biggest driver in blue cities, lololol

 

What a moron you are. Millions of people have left and you think it has no affect. The laws of supply and demand don’t exist in your stupid brain.  Go away.

[EternalShinyAndChrome 4,251]

1 minute ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

What a moron you are. Millions of people have left and you think it has no affect. The laws of supply and demand don’t exist in your stupid brain.  Go away.

OH NOOOOOOOOOS!!!! NOT AARON RUPAR!!!!! 

And I bet he thought he finally had his first "gotcha" here in the GC.  He's so sad and pathetic.  Imagine if he just used his own brain instead of regurgitating the dogma?

[TimHauck 3,031]

3 minutes ago, EternalShinyAndChrome said:

OH NOOOOOOOOOS!!!! NOT AARON RUPAR!!!!! 

And I bet he thought he finally had his first "gotcha" here in the GC.  He's so sad and pathetic.  Imagine if he just used his own brain instead of regurgitating the dogma?

Why are you commenting about Aaron Rupar?  All he did was quote what JD said.

Lol at anyone that thinks kicking out illegals with 5 people renting 1 bedroom apartments in high crime areas is going to have any noticeable impact on national home prices.

[Ron_Artest 1,733]

5 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

What a moron you are. Millions of people have left and you think it has no affect. The laws of supply and demand don’t exist in your stupid brain.  Go away.

Is the price of housing down?

[The Real timschochet 7,041]

8 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

 Millions of people have left 

WTF? 
 

Through August 10, ICE has detained 59,000 people in 2025. And not all of them have been deported: 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna189148

What are you even talking about? 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,583]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

WTF? 
 

Through August 10, ICE has detained 59,000 people in 2025. And not all of them have been deported: 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna189148

What are you even talking about? 

Self deportations were up to 1.6 million last month. Ok. Almost 2 million. 

[The Real timschochet 7,041]

If mass deportations ever happen it will absolutely raise the cost of housing, not lower it. 
But the truth is mass deportation is NOT happening. The numbers are pretty comparable to the last several years. What IS happening is a big show which scares the hell out of people and which is terrible for our economy. But people aren’t leaving. 

[The Real timschochet 7,041]

2 minutes ago, Hardcore troubadour said:

Self deportations were up to 1.6 million last month. Ok. Almost 2 million. 

Link? 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,583]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

Link? 

I made it up. 

[The Real timschochet 7,041]

You’re quoting Kristi Noem. It’s total bullsh!t. Ain’t happening.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/ice-barbie-kristi-noem-claims-235457251.html

 

[TimHauck 3,031]

6 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

You’re quoting Kristi Noem. It’s total bullsh!t. Ain’t happening.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/ice-barbie-kristi-noem-claims-235457251.html

 

And even if it were, that’s about 0.5% of the population.  Not enough to make a dent in home prices, even if illegals were buying up $500k+ housing inventory en masse which they’re not.

[jonnyutah 354]

3 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

WTF? 
 

Through August 10, ICE has detained 59,000 people in 2025. And not all of them have been deported: 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna189148

What are you even talking about? 

"Since then, data shows border crossings have plummeted, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests have doubled, and the number of people in detention is at an all-time high."

 

This winning info brought to you by one of the tims. Thanks for the link shrimp crotch!

[TimHauck 3,031]

5 hours ago, jonnyutah said:

"Since then, data shows border crossings have plummeted, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests have doubled, and the number of people in detention is at an all-time high."

 

This winning info brought to you by one of the tims. Thanks for the link shrimp crotch!

I proved your “immigrants drove housing prices in Chicago up” theory wrong.  HTH

On 7/15/2025 at 12:43 PM, TimHauck said:

Total population of Cook County down since 2020, housing prices way up.

Thanks again for confirming illegal immigration isn’t a primary driver of housing price increases.

 

[TimHauck 3,031]

On 7/15/2025 at 10:05 AM, TimHauck said:

OK I just reread your earlier post and the article.  So the -900K people stat is “since 1970.”  lol that’s over 50 years.  For one, this thread is specific to the last ~5 years.  Besides, according to the article you linked, they weren’t even all replaced.   Only ~600k immigrants moved in.

In total, looks like the total Cook County population is down about 6% since 1970 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ILCOOK1POP). Yet over that same time period home prices are probably up about 5x+ (4x vs 1987 which is the earliest data on FRED:  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHXRSA)

So thanks for confirming population trends aren’t always correlated with home price trends!

I presume your rebuttal will be “yeah but prices would have went up less without the immigrants!”  Well getting back to the original topic of the last ~5 years and the common theory (with no evidence) that the influx of illegals is driving up overall home prices, the population of Cook County is actually down about 2% (almost 100k people) from 2020 to 2024 alone.   Yet home prices are up almost 50%.

 

On 7/15/2025 at 12:43 PM, TimHauck said:

Total population of Cook County down since 2020, housing prices way up.

Thanks again for confirming illegal immigration isn’t a primary driver of housing price increases.

 

On 7/15/2025 at 1:14 PM, jonnyutah said:

Since 2020 chicago housing prices have gone from 300k to 400k. 

From 2020 to now the overall population has gone down 80k but they have seen an influx of 300k, many with government funds. 

So instead of the population going down 380k. It went down 80k. 

And your position is that this influx that cancels out most of the decline has only a small impact on the cost of housing? 

Nevermind the demographics of the exodus. 

@jonnyutah, you can’t claim that illegals are driving up prices because of more demand, but then dismiss the fact that the total population is down lol.

And I called your response.  To use your words:

You literally did exactly what I said you would do. 

I am embarrassed for you guys. Seriously. 

 

 

[Maximum Overkill 2,160]

1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

 

 

@jonnyutah, you can’t claim that illegals are driving up prices because of more demand, but then dismiss the fact that the total population is down lol.

And I called your response.  To use your words:

You literally did exactly what I said you would do. 

I am embarrassed for you guys. Seriously. 

 

 

Would you look at that??? 

In July 2025, California had the highest unemployment rate in the United States, at 5.5%, which is higher than the national average of 4.2%. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the state also experienced a slight increase in its jobless rate by 0.1 percentage points that month

[Maximum Overkill 2,160]

I sold 2 of my rental properties in the last 3 months and am building a block of 4 condos that are 2 blocks from the Ocean, 2 of which I'll keep. 

I'm not complaining. Those who do are probably doing it wrong and made bad financial decisions along the way. 

[jonnyutah 354]

2 hours ago, TimHauck said:

 

 

@jonnyutah, you can’t claim that illegals are driving up prices because of more demand, but then dismiss the fact that the total population is down lol.

And I called your response.  To use your words:

You literally did exactly what I said you would do. 

I am embarrassed for you guys. Seriously. 

 

 

Tim once again tilts at supply/demand windmill. 

Tim bumps posts where he was owned from over a month ago. 

Lol. I actually couldnt predict that. 

[TimHauck 3,031]

1 hour ago, jonnyutah said:

Tim once again tilts at supply/demand windmill. 

Tim bumps posts where he was owned from over a month ago. 

Lol. I actually couldnt predict that. 

I bumped it because it only took a month for JD Vance to prove my prediction correct.  

You’re the one that disappeared from this thread after getting “owned.”  Your (and most people’s in this thread) theory was basically more people drives more demand, yet Cook County population was down and home prices were way up.  Your response was exactly as I predicted, “well it would have been up more!”  Lol.  

But again, at least you provided some data earlier, so I appreciate that.  But even that study essentially equated to immigrants raising home prices by about $2500 a year, in Houston, one of the areas most impacted by illegal immigration.  So pretty negligible on a national scale.

[Strike 5,748]

14 hours ago, The Real timschochet said:

WTF? 
 

Through August 10, ICE has detained 59,000 people in 2025. And not all of them have been deported: 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna189148

What are you even talking about? 

That right wing rag The New York Times begs to differ:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/08/21/us/trump-deportations-summer-data-immigration-arrests.html

[The Real timschochet 7,041]

9 minutes ago, Strike said:

That right wing rag The New York Times begs to differ:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/08/21/us/trump-deportations-summer-data-immigration-arrests.html

1. Still not millions of people as HT claimed. 
 

2. Tell you what Strike: I will gladly admit I was wrong about this and you are right, IF from now on you will continue to accept the New York Times as an objective source of facts, as you did here. Do we have a deal? 

[Strike 5,748]

3 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

1. Still not millions of people as HT claimed. 
 

2. Tell you what Strike: I will gladly admit I was wrong about this and you are right, IF from now on you will continue to accept the New York Times as an objective source of facts, as you did here. Do we have a deal? 

No.  They're NOT objective.  But I know YOU can't dispute something from them because YOU trust them.    You should admit you're wrong because you're wrong, not to make a deal. 

[The Real timschochet 7,041]

1 minute ago, Strike said:

No.  They're NOT objective.  But I know YOU can't dispute something from them because YOU trust them.    You should admit you're wrong because you're wrong, not to make a deal. 

Well in that case I’m still not wrong because HT claimed millions (which is based on Kristi Noem’s false claim, and there is nothing to back that up. 
 

And you admit here that you will quote the Times when it says things you want to hear but continue to reject them when it doesn’t. How convenient for you. I wish I could do the same but unfortunately I try to be honest with myself. 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,583]

DHS looking to buy its own airplanes in order to speed up deportations. Thats what I pay taxes for. 

[TimHauck 3,031]

Vance still saying this nonsense and getting correctly roasted, both for claiming there are 40 million illegals here, and implying that they’re getting home loans for $500k+ houses

 

 

[seafoam1 3,208]

13 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Vance still saying this nonsense and getting correctly roasted, both for claiming there are 40 million illegals here, and implying that they’re getting home loans for $500k+ houses

 

 

There it is. Acyn. 

[Horseman 2,590]

On 8/21/2025 at 12:05 PM, The Real timschochet said:

Well in that case I’m still not wrong because HT claimed millions (which is based on Kristi Noem’s false claim, and there is nothing to back that up. 
 

And you admit here that you will quote the Times when it says things you want to hear but continue to reject them when it doesn’t. How convenient for you. I wish I could do the same but unfortunately I try to be honest with myself. 

Hint:  When left wing news says something negative about the left agenda, it's probably true, and vise versa. It's not that difficult idiot.  

[Horseman 2,590]

ICE to have the LARGEST budget of all federal law enforcement agencies.