Illegal Immigration and the Impact on National Home Prices

[The Real timschochet 7,343]

1 minute ago, CaptainObvious1 said:

I hate you and think you’re fine with racism

Stupid to hate anyone in this forum. (Actually stupid to hate anyone period. Hatred is pointless.) 

[Hardcore troubadour 15,908]

Tim hates the thought of mowing his lawn 

[seafoam1 3,389]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

Stupid to hate anyone in this forum. (Actually stupid to hate anyone period. Hatred is pointless.) 

No it isn't. 

[Strike 5,969]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

Stupid to hate anyone in this forum. (Actually stupid to hate anyone period. Hatred is pointless.) 

I'm comfortable saying I hate Osama Bin Laden and Adolf Hitler.  And I think there is a point in doing so.

[seafoam1 3,389]

2 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

You said that before the 2024 election. And YOU lost. 

And you can name call all you want. I'll just celebrate all the deportations this country can get under Trump. 

Tim is damaged losing so much. 

[seafoam1 3,389]

I can make a long list of people I hate. There are bad people in the world. 

[The Real timschochet 7,343]

2 minutes ago, Strike said:

I'm comfortable saying I hate Osama Bin Laden and Adolf Hitler.  And I think there is a point in doing so.

I can understand hating them, or other evil people. I’ll give you that. There is true evil in this world. 
But hating somebody here? Or any American politician? Silly. 

[MDC 7,808]

2 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

Tim is damaged losing so much. 

Forget to log in as jbycho before quoting yourself?

[The Real timschochet 7,343]

6 minutes ago, seafoam1 said:

You said that before the 2024 election. And YOU lost. 

And you can name call all you want. I'll just celebrate all the deportations this country can get under Trump. 

I didn’t lose. I wasn’t on the ballot. 

[Strike 5,969]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

I can understand hating them, or other evil people. I’ll give you that. There is true evil in this world. 
But hating somebody here? Or any American politician? Silly. 

You said ANYONE, PERIOD.  Here you are again walking back an absolute statement that you made.  

[seafoam1 3,389]

Just now, MDC said:

Forget to log in as jbycho before quoting yourself?

Mdpee needing a good cry today...

[Strike 5,969]

Just now, The Real timschochet said:

I didn’t lose. I wasn’t on the ballot. 

So you feel like you WON with Trump winning?  Come on man. 

[The Real timschochet 7,343]

Just now, Strike said:

You said ANYONE, PERIOD.  Here you are again walking back an absolute statement that you made.  

Well I don’t hate anyone. I can understand others doing so depending on the circumstances. But I still find it stupid, 

[The Real timschochet 7,343]

1 minute ago, Strike said:

So you feel like you WON with Trump winning?  Come on man. 

I didn’t lose. 

[seafoam1 3,389]

5 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

I didn’t lose. 

We all won. Trump is a great president. You're welcome. 

[Horseman 2,684]

6 minutes ago, The Real timschochet said:

Well I don’t hate anyone. I can understand others doing so depending on the circumstances. But I still find it stupid, 

You said you hated murders and rapists.  

You just say stuff.  Everyday it's something new. 

[MDC 7,808]

2 minutes ago, Horseman said:

You said you hated murders and rapists.  

You just say stuff.  Everyday it's something new. 

You really got him there.  

[Horseman 2,684]

2 minutes ago, MDC said:

You really got him there.  

.  He's a pathological liar. Just about everything he says you can refute with his own words.  

[seafoam1 3,389]

4 minutes ago, Horseman said:

.  He's a pathological liar. Just about everything he says you can refute with his own words.  

mdpee is being sarcastic. That's all he has in his bag of tricks. He never knows WTF point he's trying to make. Low IQ individual. 

[TimHauck 3,273]

20 minutes ago, Horseman said:

.  He's a pathological liar. Just about everything he says you can refute with his own words.  

Still waiting on those discord screenshots of the Georgia shooter, liar.

[Maximum Overkill 2,376]

I can put up a building for cheaper than I could of 4 years ago. So what's changed besides greedy Builders? That's not Trump's fault, he can't set the market. 

I just put up a pole barn for a customer and my cost was actually cheaper than 2021. Not much cheaper, but cheaper nonetheless. And it's all steel. Facts!! 

Builders are charging more because they can. 

[TimHauck 3,273]

13 hours ago, jonnyutah said:

I dont understand how you can argue demand for SFHs increased and then claim illegal immigrants have zero effect. Illegals mostly go to cities. People left cities. Without a replacement population cities would see housing price depression. 

The data you posted isnt just for illegals, but that distinction isnt really that important. An illegal and an asylee and TPS are not really much different for this discussion.

The American immigration council uses housing as a selling point for bringing more immigrants. According to them immigrants add 3.7 trillion to US housing wealth. They say in Houston that immigrants add 25k in value to each home. 

Chicago has seen the US born population decline by almost 900k people since 1970. The foreign born population has expanded by almost that amount. blunting what could have been a catastrophic impact on the local housing market

They sell it as a positive. But both things cant be true. They cant be a positive impact on housing wealth, but not cause any upward pressure. 

Pointing out that costs have gone up more in many areas where the immigrant population isnt as high, is a disingenuous talking point that assumes all markets are silos and there is zero spillover. 

 

Well I specifically said it has some effect, so you’re starting out with a lie if you think I said “zero effect.”  But yes, I do think it’s a bit down on the list of factors.

But I’ll forgive you since you’re the only one that’s posted any actual data so far.  I saw that article, but didn’t like that the link to the raw data was broken.  It also states that that $25K is “over a decade,” so basically that’s saying they helped increase it by $2500 a year.  So a pretty small part of the overall increase, and that’s in a city with some of the highest impact.

I know real estate markets aren’t silos, but as they say, they are “local.”  While a lot of people did leave cities during the pandemic, that’s still where most of the jobs are, so there’s still going to be a lot of demand.  I guess you’re implying people left areas with a lot of immigrants who caused prices to rise in order to go other places? Sure, that may have happened, but that would have had to be a ton of people (and more than historically as there has always been migration of course) to really have much impact on a national scale.

How about the fact that the insane spike in home prices started in 2020, when immigration was at its lowest?

[TimHauck 3,273]

2 hours ago, Ron_Artest said:

Complete lack of self awareness

Yup, hilarious coming from the guy constantly begging for my attention.

[jonnyutah 526]

6 hours ago, TimHauck said:

Well I specifically said it has some effect, so you’re starting out with a lie if you think I said “zero effect.”  But yes, I do think it’s a bit down on the list of factors.

But I’ll forgive you since you’re the only one that’s posted any actual data so far.  I saw that article, but didn’t like that the link to the raw data was broken.  It also states that that $25K is “over a decade,” so basically that’s saying they helped increase it by $2500 a year.  So a pretty small part of the overall increase, and that’s in a city with some of the highest impact.

I know real estate markets aren’t silos, but as they say, they are “local.”  While a lot of people did leave cities during the pandemic, that’s still where most of the jobs are, so there’s still going to be a lot of demand.  I guess you’re implying people left areas with a lot of immigrants who caused prices to rise in order to go other places? Sure, that may have happened, but that would have had to be a ton of people (and more than historically as there has always been migration of course) to really have much impact on a national scale.

How about the fact that the insane spike in home prices started in 2020, when immigration was at its lowest?

Prices spiking in 2020 makes perfect sense. If people were fleeing cities to get SFHs, that would lead to home prices going up. Then there should be a slightly delayed decrease in rents in cities following that. 

But strangely enough we saw rent increases also really going strong in 2021. And then housing went bonkers. 

Now what could have happened that would cause this? Let me have the new york times tell you..."The immigration surge since 2021 has been the largest in U.S. history"

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TimHauck 3,273]

1 hour ago, jonnyutah said:

Prices spiking in 2020 makes perfect sense. If people were fleeing cities to get SFHs, that would lead to home prices going up. Then there should be a slightly delayed decrease in rents in cities following that. 

But strangely enough we saw rent increases also really going strong in 2021. And then housing went bonkers. 

Now what could have happened that would cause this? Let me have the new york times tell you..."The immigration surge since 2021 has been the largest in U.S. history"

 

 

 

 

 

 

There were a lot of other factors in 2021 as well though.  IMO the biggest being the supply chain crisis and resulting explosion in materials costs.  Plus the Biden stimulus combined with most Americans having saved more than ever during the pandemic.  Then the Trump vaccine becoming widely available and giving people hope that things would quickly get back to normal, in addition to a job market that bounced back quickly after the beginning of the pandemic. 

I’m sorry, I’m gonna need more than “but a lot of illegals came here!” to convince me that a bunch of folks competing for the lowest possible cost housing is going to have much impact on many areas having median home prices of $600K+

[seafoam1 3,389]

39 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

There were a lot of other factors in 2021 as well though.  IMO the biggest being the supply chain crisis and resulting explosion in materials costs.  Plus the Biden stimulus combined with most Americans having saved more than ever during the pandemic.  Then the Trump vaccine becoming widely available and giving people hope that things would quickly get back to normal, in addition to a job market that bounced back quickly after the beginning of the pandemic. 

I’m sorry, I’m gonna need more than “but a lot of illegals came here!” to convince me that a bunch of folks competing for the lowest possible cost housing is going to have much impact on many areas having median home prices of $600K+

Imagine being this guy. Oof. 

[jonnyutah 526]

1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

There were a lot of other factors in 2021 as well though.  IMO the biggest being the supply chain crisis and resulting explosion in materials costs.  Plus the Biden stimulus combined with most Americans having saved more than ever during the pandemic.  Then the Trump vaccine becoming widely available and giving people hope that things would quickly get back to normal, in addition to a job market that bounced back quickly after the beginning of the pandemic. 

I’m sorry, I’m gonna need more than “but a lot of illegals came here!” to convince me that a bunch of folks competing for the lowest possible cost housing is going to have much impact on many areas having median home prices of $600K+

Literally posted a link that said Chicago lost about 900k people. 

Pretend those 900k people didnt get replaced.

What happens to housing costs? 

If you cant admit that housing costs would go way down, then you are just the hackiest of partisan hacks. 

[TimHauck 3,273]

2 minutes ago, jonnyutah said:

Literally posted a link that said Chicago lost about 900k people. 

Pretend those 900k people didnt get replaced.

What happens to housing costs? 

If you cant admit that housing costs would go way down, then you are just the hackiest of partisan hacks. 

Have 900k illegals moved to Chicago since 2021?

[seafoam1 3,389]

1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

Have 900k illegals moved to Chicago since 2021?

You should stop while you are way behind. 

[TimHauck 3,273]

11 hours ago, jonnyutah said:

Literally posted a link that said Chicago lost about 900k people. 

Pretend those 900k people didnt get replaced.

What happens to housing costs? 

If you cant admit that housing costs would go way down, then you are just the hackiest of partisan hacks. 

OK I just reread your earlier post and the article.  So the -900K people stat is “since 1970.”  lol that’s over 50 years.  For one, this thread is specific to the last ~5 years.  Besides, according to the article you linked, they weren’t even all replaced.   Only ~600k immigrants moved in.

In total, looks like the total Cook County population is down about 6% since 1970 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ILCOOK1POP). Yet over that same time period home prices are probably up about 5x+ (4x vs 1987 which is the earliest data on FRED:  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHXRSA)

So thanks for confirming population trends aren’t always correlated with home price trends!

I presume your rebuttal will be “yeah but prices would have went up less without the immigrants!”  Well getting back to the original topic of the last ~5 years and the common theory (with no evidence) that the influx of illegals is driving up overall home prices, the population of Cook County is actually down about 2% (almost 100k people) from 2020 to 2024 alone.   Yet home prices are up almost 50%.

[jonnyutah 526]

13 hours ago, TimHauck said:

Have 900k illegals moved to Chicago since 2021?

It was a simple question. Strangely you arent smart enough to answer such a simple question. 

[jonnyutah 526]

2 hours ago, TimHauck said:

OK I just reread your earlier post and the article.  So the -900K people stat is “since 1970.”  lol that’s over 50 years.  For one, this thread is specific to the last ~5 years.  Besides, according to the article you linked, they weren’t even all replaced.   Only ~600k immigrants moved in.

In total, looks like the total Cook County population is down about 6% since 1970 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ILCOOK1POP). Yet over that same time period home prices are probably up about 5x+ (4x vs 1987 which is the earliest data on FRED:  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHXRSA)

So thanks for confirming population trends aren’t always correlated with home price trends!

I presume your rebuttal will be “yeah but prices would have went up less without the immigrants!”  Well getting back to the original topic of the last ~5 years and the common theory (with no evidence) that the influx of illegals is driving up overall home prices, the population of Cook County is actually down about 2% (almost 100k people) from 2020 to 2024 alone.   Yet home prices are up almost 50%.

Lol. We are talking 900 thousand people. Who cares if it was 100 years. 

[TimHauck 3,273]

Just now, jonnyutah said:

Lol. We are talking 900 thousand people. Who cares if it was 100 years. 

Total population of Cook County down since 2020, housing prices way up.

Thanks again for confirming illegal immigration isn’t a primary driver of housing price increases.

[seafoam1 3,389]

4 minutes ago, TimHauck said:

Total population of Cook County down since 2020, housing prices way up.

Thanks again for confirming illegal immigration isn’t a primary driver of housing price increases.

Crime is way up. 

Cook county prison is no bueno to go to. 

[jonnyutah 526]

Since 2020 chicago housing prices have gone from 300k to 400k. 

From 2020 to now the overall population has gone down 80k but they have seen an influx of 300k, many with government funds. 

So instead of the population going down 380k. It went down 80k. 

And your position is that this influx that cancels out most of the decline has only a small impact on the cost of housing? 

Nevermind the demographics of the exodus. 

[TimHauck 3,273]

Just now, jonnyutah said:

Since 2020 chicago housing prices have gone from 300k to 400k. 

From 2020 to now the overall population has gone down 80k but they have seen an influx of 300k, many with government funds. 

So instead of the population going down 380k. It went down 80k. 

And your position is that this influx that cancels out most of the decline has only a small impact on the cost of housing? 

Nevermind the demographics of the exodus. 

Let’s forget about the makeup of the population for a second.

Would it be fair to summarize your theory as:

”more people = higher housing prices”

?

[jonnyutah 526]

Largest spike in prices in cook county over last five years...

Bridgeport area. 

"Influx of residents and shifting demographics: Historically a working-class community, Bridgeport has become a more diverse neighborhood with an increase in residents of Latinx and Chinese descent. There's also a rising number of white residents and individuals with higher educational attainment moving into the area."

 

Lol. 

[TimHauck 3,273]

1 minute ago, jonnyutah said:

Largest spike in prices in cook county over last five years...

Bridgeport area. 

"Influx of residents and shifting demographics: Historically a working-class community, Bridgeport has become a more diverse neighborhood with an increase in residents of Latinx and Chinese descent. There's also a rising number of white residents and individuals with higher educational attainment moving into the area."

 

Lol. 

Are you acknowledging that the price impact would be felt primarily in specific areas most impacted?

[TimHauck 3,273]

1 hour ago, TimHauck said:

Let’s forget about the makeup of the population for a second.

Would it be fair to summarize your theory as:

”more people = higher housing prices”

?

Bump for @jonnyutah

[MDC 7,808]

It’s an interesting question. On the one hand, you’d expect housing prices to go down if an estimated 3-4 million homes were suddenly vacated. On the other hand, if you deported 15 million or so illegals tomorrow construction costs and inflation would spike across the board.

It’s all academic though, because there will still be many millions of illegals here when Trump leaves office in 2028.