12th pick strategy , am I crazy?

[Meatscarf 1]

I am seriously considering taking Allen or Jackson at the turn . I’m just one of those guys that doesn’t want the best Qb falling to the guys that get the best Wr/Rb . What are your thoughts? Thanks 

[weepaws 3,235]

Yes

[GobbleDog 1,002]

Need to know the scoring.   4 vs 6 pt passing Tds?   Ppr?  100+ yd bonus pts?  

[weepaws 3,235]

Four or Six points doesn’t change that one shouldn’t take a Qb rd 2.   And what does it matter if it’s a ppr? 

[GobbleDog 1,002]

11 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Four or Six points doesn’t change that one shouldn’t take a Qb rd 2.   And what does it matter if it’s a ppr? 

Deciding between  Qb -vs- Wr or pass-catching Rb...  ppr should enter into the equation. With 6-pt passing Tds, I'd be less inclined to pay big draft capital for a rushing Qb. 

[Meatscarf 1]

Ppr, 4pt pass td , 6 pt rush td. No bonuses

[Meatscarf 1]

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

Yes

So letting Lamar’s 45 total TDS fall to the Gibbs owner and all his points is the move ??? My Puka/Nico/Nabers/ etc is going to threaten that team ??? 

[GobbleDog 1,002]

12 minutes ago, Meatscarf said:

Ppr, 4pt pass td , 6 pt rush td. No bonuses

Certainly makes rushing Qbs valuable. As much as I'm inclined to say Wr-Wr (especially this year with elite Wrs sitting on 150+ targets falling to the end of the first).... have to admit Allen makes sense. Real question is will he outscore the next best Qb you'd draft in later rounds, moreso than the elite Wr over a Wr to be drafted later.?.  In a ppr it's probably close. But Allen is as close to a sure thing among the rushing Qbs as there is. Consistently top 3 and the offense hasn't changed a darn thing. Should be great again. I don't think I'd do it for Jackson - who's not nearly as consistent. 

Drafting an early Qb is strange to me, because my league doesn't value rushing Qbs, but instead high volume Wrs. Gotta know your scoring. 

[keepitreal 0]

If you got 2 of Puka, Nico, Nabers, and then got someone like Nix or Mayfield, you could be better than Puka/Allen and someone like Evans or Adams at the end of the 3rd. As someone above said, you have to know your league, team that usually win have the top WRs and RBs. 

[GobbleDog 1,002]

2 minutes ago, keepitreal said:

Puka, Nico, Nabers, 

I think there's a chance broke-back Stafford shuts it down by mid-season... especially if the Rams get off to a slow start. Puka himself has his own injury history to worry about. And Nabers.... the bad toe + Wilson (who only throws moon balls) is worrisome. 

I'll hold my nose and take Nico (Texans o-line is atrocious and they did nothing to fix it), but I'd rather have BTJ and St. Brown.   BTJ with Coen... a fantasy dream.  St. Brown is what he always is: 140-160 targets of reliable gold. 

[Ray_T 764]

6 hours ago, GobbleDog said:

Need to know the scoring.   4 vs 6 pt passing Tds?   Ppr?  100+ yd bonus pts?  

ok given the scoring, I would say yeah a bit crazy.

no QB this year is worth a first round pick.     but if picking just before the turn of round 2-3 or just after, I'd say they are fair game.   so one round early if you believe the ADP data out there.   on the other hand I'd say this kind of data is useful for online drafts.  but its also a know your league thing.  do people regularly take QB early or not?   if the answer is no.  you might be able to wait til you are up at the end of round 3 and get your guy. (note the word  might.... no guarantees)

ADP for the top QB seems to range from 22 overall to about the middle of round 3 which seems to vary by up to 4 to 6 picks depending on which website you consult.

and even if you feel hes worth the #12 overall pick,  the thought is that you shouldnt pay the price of a cadillac when buying a honda civic.

which means dont overpay.

I know being on the end sucks because there are some players (your QB being one of them) who you literally have no chance to get unless you want to massively overpay.

so I guess the question is... how much do you like him?    you draft at 12 and 13 and then not again until pick 36.   at that point, your guy may be gone.    This is one reason why I hate drafting at the turn.

[weepaws 3,235]

13 hours ago, Meatscarf said:

I am seriously considering taking Allen or Jackson at the turn . I’m just one of those guys that doesn’t want the best Qb falling to the guys that get the best Wr/Rb . What are your thoughts? Thanks 

No need to take a Qb in the second rd.  Why can’t you be one of those guys that get the best wr/rb while they go Qb, and you can get a good Qb later.  

4 hours ago, Meatscarf said:

So letting Lamar’s 45 total TDS fall to the Gibbs owner and all his points is the move ??? My Puka/Nico/Nabers/ etc is going to threaten that team ??? 

How do you know that the Gibbs owner is going to take Jackson?   Double digit rounds for qbs,TEs, def, kickers, now load up on those best wr/rb take a Qb late stream if need be , and you get ahold of a winner keep that Qb.  

[JagFan 180]

I enjoy reading these discussions because everyone has “their strategy” and some are more passionate about this topic than others…and off we go.  The truth is no one is right or wrong because every strategy has worked for them, hence the reason they are so passionate about it.  If there is a player you covet, and you know you have to take that player a round early to get them…then that’s what you have to do.  Unfortunately the 13th pick vs the 36th pick feels much more cringy than the 121st pick vs the 144th (check my math).  Ultimately you have to make your first 3-5 picks hit regardless of the position.  Then you have to play the wire well because there will be impact players from every positions aka “waiver wire gems”.  That’s the ONLY can’t miss strategy to this game.  If you want to take one Allen or Lamar at the 12/13 turn because you know you won’t get them otherwise, there’s no reason not to.  Just keep in mind you’re still pushing Daniels and Hurts to the Gibbs owner (per your example).  And someone is going to wait until the double digit rounds and get May or Fields.  Those two aren’t sexy, but they give you the same potential as a running QB.  

[Gratefulegg1973 262]

You have endless options really.  Personally I'd think about maybe going:

Rd 1:  Best RB:  Henry, Achane, etc

Rd 2:  Best WR:  BTJ, Collins, St Brown, etc

Let's assume Allen, Lamar, Daniels are gone, as is Bowers.  

Rd 3 & 4:  You could go Mcbride/Kittle, & Hurts/Burrow. 

You'd have a stud at each position.  

[LaChup 234]

My draft strategy this year is to go Kicker in the first round, which will most likely be Aubrey. Not only will I have the number one kicker, but I will start a massive run on kickers, leaving the best positional players available to pick from. I call it the "Shock and Awe" strategy, which most people probably haven't heard of until now. Check it out with some mocks and let me know what you guys think. 

[Ray_T 764]

the thing about drafting at #12 is you need to take what the draft gives you.

last year in the July mock, an awful lot of WR were taken in round 1.   more than I was expecting to be sure.  I came in planning to take a WR or maybe 2 but so many were off the board I just didnt like what was left.  so I took what I felt were the best 2 RB's on the board.    (Henry and Sequon)

this was not the strategy I had planned but it was the strategy I had to go with because of how many WR went ahead of me.

the most important thing is that you dont join in at the end of a run at a position. (unless its a case where you have a tier of WR all with roughly the same value and only one is left before the dropoff)

so if a pile of WR go ahead of you, I'd suggest you go RB with one or both of your picks.

I'd run a couple mocks to see how that looks.    run a couple where RB go early and a couple where its all WR for the most part.    see what your likely scenarios are.   This is the one area where a mock can really help you.

[weepaws 3,235]

Any position in a redraft you take what the draft gives you.  

[JagFan 180]

5 hours ago, LaChup said:

My draft strategy this year is to go Kicker in the first round, which will most likely be Aubrey. Not only will I have the number one kicker, but I will start a massive run on kickers, leaving the best positional players available to pick from. I call it the "Shock and Awe" strategy, which most people probably haven't heard of until now. Check it out with some mocks and let me know what you guys think. 

The ONLY way I see this strategy working is going K/Def in the first 2 rounds….aka Shock/Awe/Oops

[LaChup 234]

I always go backup Kicker before Defense.

[Gladiators 2,009]

9 hours ago, LaChup said:

My draft strategy this year is to go Kicker in the first round, which will most likely be Aubrey. Not only will I have the number one kicker, but I will start a massive run on kickers, leaving the best positional players available to pick from. I call it the "Shock and Awe" strategy, which most people probably haven't heard of until now. Check it out with some mocks and let me know what you guys think. 

I’ve been struggling to get others to jump on the bandwagon with this strat. I’m not sure that it’s going to work.