Top four QB

[wolves111 107]

Going round and round preparing draft strategy's and keep coming back to the QB question.

First, did anyone win their league championship last year with one of the top four QB's and what round did you draft them?

I have the 4th pick in a 10 team, full ppr, 6 pts for all td's league. Mocks I've been doing, Lamar and Allen go in round three frequently. Great picks but that high price has a negative ripple effect. Guy's like weepaws wait until later rounds and tell us it works well for them. I've tried it a few times without much success. 

How does everyone approach this topic?

 

[GobbleDog 1,002]

I drafted Mahomes in my big money league ...  3rd round.  Sounds ridiculous for a guy projected for 5th rd. But 0.5 pt per completion - monumental shift in value. 

Leagues that don't have that ridiculous scoring format (all of them), I wait til rd 9+- ... Goff, Maye, McCarthy, Lawrence, Tua... take 2 and see which hit. The opportunity cost for the early Qb in normal formats doesn't seem worth it.

..........................................

I generally avoid 1st rd Rbs in 12-man leagues as they injure or under-perform more than Wrs. But in 10-man leagues I take more risks because there's more depth.  If the #1 goes down, no big deal because you're able to easily load up at that position. 

If I were in your shoes with the 4th pick in a 10-man FULL PPR ..... I'd be looking for Bijan or Gibbs with that first pick (forget Barkley).  Hope one of the top 9 Wrs fall in the 2nd rd (ends with London)... if so take one, if not, pivot to Bucky or Chase. And because the Wrs are still sorta trashy in that early 3rd round...  I'd probably just take a 3rd stud Rb to start in flex - James Cook. 

Get a couple Wrs the next few rounds (Sutton / Ridley / etc.)  Back to Rbs while some starters are still available. And eventually think of a Te. And then Qb around 9 or 10.  

[weepaws 3,233]

In the tenth in both of my 14 team leagues I drafted  this season Goff, and I also  drafted the field, I’m not worried about how great my Qb ends up ranked with other QBs, I just want the one that will give me lots of points that weekend.   So I draft and stream.  

[Maximum Overkill 2,170]

53 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

10 team, full ppr

I wait until the top tier QBs are gone before I even consider drafting one, especially in a 10 team league where QBs are available late. 

You can get a Bo Nix/Dak type stack at a fraction of Tier 1 prices. 

My draft strategy has always been to just draft the best available player on the board, roster construction will fall inline, it always does. 

[GobbleDog 1,002]

23 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Dak

Dak was Qb 20 ppg when he left after Wk 9 last year. He might regain '23 form, but you willing to risk your fantasy life on it?  Not me. 

Parsons leaving is a reflection of the piss-poor operation in Dallas right now... and ain't it good. 

[Maximum Overkill 2,170]

1 minute ago, GobbleDog said:

Dak was Qb 20 ppg when he left after Wk 9 last year. He might regain '23 form, but you willing to risk your fantasy life on it?  Not me. 

Parsons leaving is a reflection of the piss-poor operation in Dallas right now... and ain't it good. 

I'm totally fine with Dak, especially stacked with a Bo Nix. 

I always pair a high floor QB with a high upside QB. It's worked extremely well for me over the years. I'd rather waste a high pick on an upside WR or RB than a QB. After that top tier of QB they're all separated by only a few points. Look it up, it's not that dramatic 

[wolves111 107]

1 hour ago, GobbleDog said:

I drafted Mahomes in my big money league ...  3rd round.  Sounds ridiculous for a guy projected for 5th rd. But 0.5 pt per completion - monumental shift in value. 

Leagues that don't have that ridiculous scoring format (all of them), I wait til rd 9+- ... Goff, Maye, McCarthy, Lawrence, Tua... take 2 and see which hit. The opportunity cost for the early Qb in normal formats doesn't seem worth it.

..........................................

I generally avoid 1st rd Rbs in 12-man leagues as they injure or under-perform more than Wrs. But in 10-man leagues I take more risks because there's more depth.  If the #1 goes down, no big deal because you're able to easily load up at that position. 

If I were in your shoes with the 4th pick in a 10-man FULL PPR ..... I'd be looking for Bijan or Gibbs with that first pick (forget Barkley).  Hope one of the top 9 Wrs fall in the 2nd rd (ends with London)... if so take one, if not, pivot to Bucky or Chase. And because the Wrs are still sorta trashy in that early 3rd round...  I'd probably just take a 3rd stud Rb to start in flex - James Cook. 

Get a couple Wrs the next few rounds (Sutton / Ridley / etc.)  Back to Rbs while some starters are still available. And eventually think of a Te. And then Qb around 9 or 10.  

Thx. I guess my other idea that looks doable is Bo Nix at his adp which I think is around 7-8 round. Might be a decent option in A Payton offense 

[Maximum Overkill 2,170]

52 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

Thx. I guess my other idea that looks doable is Bo Nix at his adp which I think is around 7-8 round. Might be a decent option in A Payton offense 

Nix is a super value. His rushing upside is so damn valuable in any format. 

I think he's an absolute steal where he's going. You don't need a top 5 QB to win a league. I don't think I've ever owned a top 5 QB and have won numerous leagues over the years. 

[polecatt 480]

I take a QB when one is available that I like at the selection I have. Sometimes it's earlier in the draft but often later. 

If you don't get a good chance before about round 8 or so, then look to do a good QB stack, maybe try to get a duo with a steady guy and a bit of a gunslinger with weekly upside. Or take a solid pocket passer and a guy who can run a bit. Just don't force anything when taking a QB

[weepaws 3,233]

Goff was ninth in avg  points per last season in the qb slot, I think my draft pick of him has landed a Qb that can be in the top four.  Thanks. 

[JagFan 176]

There are many strategies with the QB position no matter your scoring…except super flex.  You need to draft early in super flex.  I don’t necessary have a strategy, but I have had luck waiting in recent years.  Last year I waited and took Daniels later, several years ago I waited and took Lamar later, etc.  I’ve also had bad results waiting.  I think you can be successful waiting this year.  Many of the names me mentioned already are good targets.  Dak - Pickens added, and Parsons traded.  Nix - should take that next step forward under Payton.  Fields - this is my favorite target this year if I wait.  Probably the best runner among QBs, and back with his college WR.  If he simply takes a small step forward as a passer, he will be in the PPG range of Lamar/Allen/Daniels/Hurts.  Finally, Stroud - RB situation is bad, Nico is healthy.

[Maximum Overkill 2,170]

5 hours ago, weepaws said:

Goff was ninth in avg  points per last season in the qb slot, I think my draft pick of him has landed a Qb that can be in the top four.  Thanks. 

I love Goff for his great floor but this new offense worries me just a little. Goff would clearly be a really good QB2 with QB14 upside for Fantasy

 It's all about value 

[WhiteWonder 2,837]

21 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I'm totally fine with Dak, especially stacked with a Bo Nix. 

I always pair a high floor QB with a high upside QB. It's worked extremely well for me over the years. I'd rather waste a high pick on an upside WR or RB than a QB. After that top tier of QB they're all separated by only a few points. Look it up, it's not that dramatic 

In regards to Dak being 20th in ppg, they did add Pickens which should help. 

Although you're talking about a Nix/Dak stack which doesn't really go with the waiting on QB approach. Nix is very often the 7th QB off the board and Dak is someone who goes in that "last of the starters, start of the backups" range. So a strategy that pairs the two of them together might actually be worse than just drafting Jackson/Allen/Burrow.  At least, if you're paying for Nix at his usual ADP, you probably should wait on a backup to the point that Dak would be long gone.   I'm only taking a backup like Dak if i'm pairing him with a high risk guy like Fields where I am drafting them both fairly late. 

I'm definitely a QB late guy but I'm not going to lock myself in to a set rule about what round that has to be. You have to adapt to your draft as it's unfolding. For example if you know you want to stack Dak and... Goff, or you just know you're high on Dak this year but your league mates are drafting QBs a little earlier than website ADP, if you see Goff and Herbert go in round 8 or you see two owners grab QB2s already, you may not be able to wait until round 10 or later to get your preferred late round QB. .... and if that winds up being the case, then an argument can be made that it would have been more prudent to draft Burrow in round 5 than Dak in round 9, for example.  It all winds up being relative to the difference in what those QBs score compared to the difference in equivalent RB/WR you would have drafted in those same rounds. 

So for me personally, it's always been more about identifying specific later QBs, sort of saying that is my guy, and making sure I get them in the flow of the draft, even if that means adjusting a few rounds earlier than I hoped.  In 2024 it was Jayden Daniels for me (round 8ish), in 2023 it was Jared Goff (usually round 11) but in 2022 it was Hurts and I definitely drafted him as high as round 6. 

[Maximum Overkill 2,170]

1 minute ago, WhiteWonder said:

Although you're talking about a Nix/Dak stack

Not necessarily, that was just one example on what I consider a proper stack. And I agree with you, if a Burrow starts falling and I don't love what's on the board, I'm pouncing!

I'm not against drafting a top tier QB but I'm more about value when it comes to the QB position. 

Nice work out of you with that Jayden Daniels pick. That's how leagues are won. I really feel like Caleb Williams could be a huge difference maker this year, especially at his current ADP. 

 

 

[WhiteWonder 2,837]

5 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Not necessarily, that was just one example on what I consider a proper stack. And I agree with you, if a Burrow starts falling and I don't love what's on the board, I'm pouncing!

I'm not against drafting a top tier QB but I'm more about value when it comes to the QB position. 

Nice work out of you with that Jayden Daniels pick. That's how leagues are won. I really feel like Caleb Williams could be a huge difference maker this year, especially at his current ADP. 

 

 

This year it has been Fields for me. He was top 10 ppg last year when starting for the Steelers and playing conservatively. The only thing with Fields that is a little different than the QBs I lock in on in previous seasons, is that I think he has a higher chance of flat out busting and being benched. On one hand, he was given a 2 year contract and the team thinks he can follow the same path as a Baker Mayfield, he is reunited with his college WR, and his upside is high. On the other hand, the new regime may want to make their mark and if the Jets are losing a lot of close, low scoring games, how quickly will we see Tyrod Taylor? So this year I am also prioritizing taking my QB2 quickly after. 

 

I also find that in most of my leagues, all the owners start off wanting to wait a bit on the position to the point that you don't see the first QB picked until maybe late round 3, then another 2 go in round 4, 2 in round 5 but as the dominoes start to fall, you then see Baker Mayfield in round 6, Nix and Murray in round 7. The range of QB drafting becomes condensed. That's what I mean when I say if someone like Burrow is there at the top of round 5 (after Allen, Jackson, Daniels and Hurts) it can definitely wind up being a prudent pick.

[Maximum Overkill 2,170]

Just now, WhiteWonder said:

This year it has been Fields for me.

I like that. I'm a huge fan of young QBs with rushing upside like Nix, Williams, Fields and even Maye to an extent. 

The best part is that you don't have to reach for them. 

[WhiteWonder 2,837]

1 minute ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I like that. I'm a huge fan of young QBs with rushing upside like Nix, Williams, Fields and even Maye to an extent. 

The best part is that you don't have to reach for them. 

No but in two leagues I took him in round 9 when I was hoping to not have to until round 10. Only 1 round, not a big deal and in those leagues Burrow was drafted in round 3 and late round 4 so not like the example I gave above. I also like Nix but he went in rounds 5 and 6 in those same leagues. 

[Maximum Overkill 2,170]

Just now, WhiteWonder said:

I also like Nix but he went in rounds 5 and 6 in those same leagues. 

Yeah, that's probably a little too rich for my blood. I love Nix but I'd wait on one of the others. 

Fields is still priced criminally low IMO. 

[weepaws 3,233]

5 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I love Goff for his great floor but this new offense worries me just a little. Goff would clearly be a really good QB2 with QB14 upside for Fantasy

 It's all about value 

Maybe, but the key to taking a double digit round Qb, is that one also inherited the field, it’s draft a double digit round Qb, and stream.  

Lions still have St Brown, Gibbs, Montgomery, Williams, Portia, good to go.  

[JagFan 176]

2 hours ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Yeah, that's probably a little too rich for my blood. I love Nix but I'd wait on one of the others. 

Fields is still priced criminally low IMO. 

Agreed.  Fields is a steal.

[weepaws 3,233]

I see that Fields as a adp ranking of 13th in the Qb slot, I think that’s the best he’s going to be, he’s not going to stay healthy, is avg per game will be better than 13, but not his total points.   Thanks. 

[wolves111 107]

I guess my concern is he just as likely to get benched as he is to be relevant.

Rather draft C Williams a couple rounds earlier 

[weepaws 3,233]

C Williams adp is Qb 15,  Fields is 13.  

[Maximum Overkill 2,170]

1 minute ago, weepaws said:

C Williams adp is Qb 15,  Fields is 13.  

Both are a steal IMO 

[weepaws 3,233]

5 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Both are a steal IMO 

Goff is ranked 12th, with previous top ten success, now that’s a steal, two qbs that will finish around their adp isn’t a steal.  Thanks. 

[wolves111 107]

17 minutes ago, weepaws said:

C Williams adp is Qb 15,  Fields is 13.  

Guess I know more than most

[weepaws 3,233]

Point is, one doesn’t need to take a Qb a few rounds earlier when they are equal in value.  Thanks. 

Both of them are below par, and shouldn’t be drafted until the double digit rounds. 

[GobbleDog 1,002]

1 hour ago, wolves111 said:

Rather draft C Williams a couple rounds earlier 

Fields, Williams...?.  Is this golf where lowest score wins?  

Goff, Lawrence, Tua, McCarthy, etc.  Nah, I'd rather have Caleb Williams off one of the worst Qb performances of all time.  

 

[Maximum Overkill 2,170]

46 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Goff is ranked 12th, with previous top ten success, now that’s a steal, two qbs that will finish around their adp isn’t a steal.  Thanks. 

I'm glad you have a crystal ball. 

The key to being a successful Fantasy Owner is seeing the breakout before anyone else does. Otherwise don't play, press Auto draft. 

Thank you, Indeed 

[weepaws 3,233]

5 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

I'm glad you have a crystal ball. 

The key to being a successful Fantasy Owner is seeing the breakout before anyone else does. Otherwise don't play, press Auto draft. 

Thank you, Indeed 

Drafting a Qb that has had top ten success, that has a lot of very good targets playing with him isn’t a tough one to pick.  

All three Williams and Fields, and Goff are double digit round Qb, Goff is in the better situation for success, it’s an easy decision.  

Thanks. 

[Maximum Overkill 2,170]

6 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Goff is in the better situation for success, it’s an easy decision.  

In real life yes but real life is not Fantasy. 

All 3 of those young QBs have rushing upside which equals a higher ceiling. 

Floors DON'T WIN FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIPS. 

[wolves111 107]

11 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

In real life yes but real life is not Fantasy. 

All 3 of those young QBs have rushing upside which equals a higher ceiling. 

Floors DON'T WIN FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIPS. 

And that’s the take away. And your comment about seeing a breakout is spot on.

 

[wolves111 107]

One last comment. The list of GM’s who were fired for signing players based on past performance is a long one. Guys like Roseman, a nerd who never played football, is headed to the HOF. Why is that?

FF is about identifying the players ready to excel, rather than players who have excelled. We can all rank the top five at any position but what wins is identifying the ones ready to join them. Is it a dice roll? Yep. 

Go with your gut and don’t be bullied by someone else’s opinion 

[jrokh 610]

In 4 pt passing TD׳ leagues Fields is a cheat code…

[Maximum Overkill 2,170]

4 minutes ago, wolves111 said:

FF is about identifying the players ready to excel, rather than players who have excelled. We can all rank the top five at any position but what wins is identifying the ones ready to join them. Is it a dice roll? Yep. 

Perfectly stated. For example,. Treveon Henderson has the ability to break Fantasy Football, even as a rookie. I'm not leaving any draft without that kid, especially at that great of a value. 

Drafting the Joe Mixons and the Josh Jacobs' of the World because Yahoo tells you to will win you nothing. I've been in enough leagues to know that's not how it works. 

WeePaws may as well press Auto Draft if that's his thinking. 

[weepaws 3,233]

35 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

In real life yes but real life is not Fantasy. 

All 3 of those young QBs have rushing upside which equals a higher ceiling. 

Floors DON'T WIN FANTASY FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIPS. 

What happens in real life, is related to points in ff, I’ll take a double digit round Qb that has avg 21 points per season the last three, that’s a great floor over the other two.  Thanks. Surround with a lot of talent. 

[Maximum Overkill 2,170]

Just now, weepaws said:

What happens in real life, is related to points in ff, I’ll take a double digit round Qb that has avg 21 points per season the last three, that’s a great floor over the other two.  Thanks. 

Then Auto draft.

Every season and situation is different. You can throw away last year's stats. Look no farther than Saquon Barkley's stats in 2023, compared to 2024. I can give you at least 20 other examples as well. 

League Winner 

Thank you, Indeed 

[weepaws 3,233]

4 minutes ago, Maximum Overkill said:

Perfectly stated. For example,. Treveon Henderson has the ability to break Fantasy Football, even as a rookie. I'm not leaving any draft without that kid, especially at that great of a value. 

Drafting the Joe Mixons and the Josh Jacobs' of the World because Yahoo tells you to will win you nothing. I've been in enough leagues to know that's not how it works. 

WeePaws may as well press Auto Draft if that's his thinking. 

Might want to do the smart thing and remove J Jacobs name from your stupidity of thinking,  you saying he didn’t help ff owners last season, the rb you called cooked rice? 

[weepaws 3,233]

Just now, Maximum Overkill said:

Then Auto draft.

Every season and situation is different. You can throw away last year's stats. Look no farther than Saquon Barkley's stats in 2023, compared to 2024. I can give you at least 20 other examples as well. 

League Winner 

Thank you, Indeed 

Barkley went from crappy team to a super bowl contender, with maybe the best O-Line in the business, that was an easy pick, so keep showing us, how about you talk about J Jacobs? 

[Maximum Overkill 2,170]

Just now, weepaws said:

Barkley went from crappy team to a super bowl contender

Yet his ADP was low, he turned out to be a league winner. If you knew it you'd of taken him #1 overall. 

We all would of.