What could have happened if Democrats didn’t cave on the shutdown?

[squistion 2,559]

From the far left Daily Kos, but Kos makes some pretty good points (essentially that it may be for the best that Democrats caved)

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/11/17/2354253/-What-could-have-happened-if-Democrats-didn-t-cave-on-the-shutdown?detail=emaildkre

What could have happened if Democrats didn’t cave on the shutdown?

[...] The cave was stupid. But it raises a different question worth examining: What would winning have actually looked like?

Democrats’ core demand was reinstating Affordable Care Act health insurance subsidies. They didn’t get them. But imagine they had.

Those subsidies are used disproportionately by rural, red-state conservatives. “Nearly six in ten Marketplace enrollees (57%) live in congressional districts represented by a Republican,” reported KFF. “Generally, enrollment in ACA Marketplace coverage by congressional district is largest in the South. At least 10% of the population is enrolled in ACA Marketplace plans throughout all congressional districts in Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina, along with almost all in Texas and Utah.” 

The people most reliant on these subsidies are rural Americans, who lean heavily conservative. A policy brief from the National Rural Health Association estimates that rural Americans save an average of $890 per year from the enhanced subsidies—”28% more than their urban counterparts.”

So Senate Democrats were fighting hardest for a benefit primarily used by conservatives.

If Democrats had actually won that concession, then what? Would they get credit from a demographic that has abandoned them wholesale? Would Fox News suddenly celebrate Democrats for protecting its viewers’ access to affordable health care? 

Would Democrats be able to communicate the victory effectively, given their chronic inability to message accomplishments—and given the near-total absence of any meaningful left-wing partisan media ecosystem?

Of course not.

More likely, Trump would take credit for “saving” his supporters’ health care. And even if he didn’t bother, his supporters would give him credit anyway.

The Democratic cave angered activists, but the broader voter base remains mostly oblivious. Had Democrats won, the rural Republicans benefiting most would have stayed just as oblivious to what their own party tried to take away from them.

Now, instead, they’ll lose that health care. Senate Republicans will vote in mid-December to strip those subsidies away, right before a pivotal midterm election in which health care and affordability will be central issues. When rural conservatives receive their new, much higher premium bills, the blame will sit squarely with the GOP.

Democrats don’t need those voters to switch parties. Our party brand is too damaged to expect that. But depressing Republican turnout is almost as valuable as flipping votes. A disgusted rural conservative who stays home is effectively half a vote for Democrats. 

So the irony is that by caving to the GOP yet again—reinforcing the weak Democratic brand that drives activists up the wall—Democrats may have actually improved their electoral position next year.

[dogcows 1,085]

The result is that people saw one thing for certain: Republican politicians didn't care if people were unemployed, starving, and have no access to health insurance.

I think they could have ended it sooner, and still made that point.

[thegeneral 3,656]

Got stuck in Newark one night. That was a real treat!

[weepaws 3,360]

What would America be like if we had good moral choices when it comes to political people, neither side is worthy.  Stop with the one side is better or more righteous than the others , talk about corruption, government leads the list.  

[MDC 7,934]

Sort of a pet peeve of mine that these decisions always get framed according to whether it’s good for Dems / Reps politically vs whether it’s just good policy.

I’m not a fan of the ACA in general, but if extending the subsidies was good policy Dems should’ve fought for it regardless of whether it mostly helps red state voters.

I do think the GOP is going to pay a price for letting the subsidies lapse and cutting Medicare, Medicaid, Head Start etc. next year.

[Grace Under Pressure 188]

Trump was willing to shut down commercial air travel to "win". Dems couldn't stomach it, rightfully so. It's disgusting that he had Duffy announce cancellations that "would only get worse".

Don doesn't give a crap if you can fly. He has Air Force One. Nor does his Mar-a-Lago circle, who all fly private charter or own their own jet.

[TBayXXXVII 2,673]

Democrats cause the shutdown, blame Republicans, then trash Republican's because the Democrats finally did their job.  Gotta love the leftist mentality.

[squistion 2,559]

2 hours ago, dogcows said:

The result is that people saw one thing for certain: Republican politicians didn't care if people were unemployed, starving, and have no access to health insurance.

I think they could have ended it sooner, and still made that point.

Maybe, maybe not. Showing that Trump was willing to go "scorched earth" is what really made the point IMO about his and Republican attitudes.  

[Tree of Knowledge 2,171]

Daily Kos.    

[BufordT 440]

Fact of the matter is the Republicans, following Trump’s directive, were dug in so deep they flat out were never going to cave on this one. This could’ve lasted a year +, the Republicans weren’t going to cave. Especially, after Pelosi made Trump look like a tool during the shutdown in his first term. 

[BrahmaBulls 946]

Another thread with left talking points that intelligent people don't believe.

[jonnyutah 557]

4 hours ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

Trump was willing to shut down commercial air travel to "win". Dems couldn't stomach it, rightfully so. It's disgusting that he had Duffy announce cancellations that "would only get worse".

Don doesn't give a crap if you can fly. He has Air Force One. Nor does his Mar-a-Lago circle, who all fly private charter or own their own jet.

So you are saying trump is a better negotiator? 

USA! USA!

[weepaws 3,360]

1 hour ago, BufordT said:

Fact of the matter is the Republicans, following Trump’s directive, were dug in so deep they flat out were never going to cave on this one. This could’ve lasted a year +, the Republicans weren’t going to cave. Especially, after Pelosi made Trump look like a tool during the shutdown in his first term. 

While people were not getting paid, that’s the Republican Party.  Shame. 

I hope in the next election for the office of dictator, we have a true republican person to vote for.  

[weepaws 3,360]

4 hours ago, TBayXXXVII said:

Democrats cause the shutdown, blame Republicans, then trash Republican's because the Democrats finally did their job.  Gotta love the leftist mentality.

I agree, liberal trump was n control. 

[weepaws 3,360]

1 hour ago, jonnyutah said:

So you are saying trump is a better negotiator? 

USA! USA!

Mmm lying communicator, he speaks lies, and you vote for him, he’s darn good, and you’re just foolish.  Thanks 

[weepaws 3,360]

6 hours ago, MDC said:

Sort of a pet peeve of mine that these decisions always get framed according to whether it’s good for Dems / Reps politically vs whether it’s just good policy.

I’m not a fan of the ACA in general, but if extending the subsidies was good policy Dems should’ve fought for it regardless of whether it mostly helps red state voters.

I do think the GOP is going to pay a price for letting the subsidies lapse and cutting Medicare, Medicaid, Head Start etc. next year.

How about  those effected by those cuts, why doesn’t a liberal fool like yourself care about those people? 

[weepaws 3,360]

6 hours ago, dogcows said:

The result is that people saw one thing for certain: Republican politicians didn't care if people were unemployed, starving, and have no access to health insurance.

I think they could have ended it sooner, and still made that point.

Liberals have been doing that to Americans for years, stop lying to yourself.  

[MDC 7,934]

1 minute ago, weepaws said:

How about  those effected by those cuts, why doesn’t a liberal fool like yourself care about those people? 

That was exactly my point you buttfock retard.

[weepaws 3,360]

5 minutes ago, MDC said:

That was exactly my point you buttfock retard.

Then make it your point, dumb flock,  liberal fool. 

[MDC 7,934]

3 minutes ago, weepaws said:

Then make it your point, dumb flock,  liberal fool. 

Learn to read you fake Christian closet mo.

[weepaws 3,360]

4 minutes ago, MDC said:

Learn to read you fake Christian closet mo.

Learn to write you piece of  Pedro liberal.