Do you do your own projections, or use someone else's?

[vrabinec 19]

I'm in the middle of getting ready for the big money draft, and I'm doing my projections. I disagree with a lot of the projections out there on Yahoo, NFL.com, and all those other fantasy sites (I don't buy the fantasy draft mags, but I'm pretty sure I'd disagree with those on a bunch of players as well). Just curious if there's anyone out there who swears by some projections. I've never known any site to be really accurate. They all feel like sheep, afraid to step out on a limb. Shaun Alexander was huge until he wasn't kind on mentality.

[WhiteWonder 2,172]

i dont bother with projections.

 

i do my own rankings and tiers.

 

who cares what statistics i project for Calvin as long as I feel he will out produce the #2 WR?

 

don't get me wrong, in my head I have a loose idea of what they will score in order to place them where i do in my rankings but I don't need to sit there and put pen to paper with 91-1235-11 or something like that.

[DankNuggs 305]

projections are pretty foolish other than a rough outline to deduce rankings. If your scoring system differs from the methodology of whatever ranking or projection you are looking at, it could drastically impact value. If your lineups differ from whatever standard they assume, your VBD will be off...

[weepaws 2,460]

I just do my own rankings

[cnasty 5]

Always make my own. Other people's projections/predictions are ok, but I think with a bit of the right research anybody can become well informed. You just got to know where to look.

[rholio 339]

I start with others rankings, and modify from there. It can help to have that list of names to work off and disagree with.

[Super Cubs 132]

Both. I like looking at others ranking, projections, cheatsheets, ect... to pick up on things I may have missed. I don't have the time I use to have to dedicate fantasy football and a lot of other things. In the end I still move players around and make the final decision on who I want to take when.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

It is really difficult to make any kind of prediction on an individual players stats without going game by game and predicting stats for each. The top tier guys are easier to do, but even they can fluctuate within a few hundred yards of end of year predictions, changing their rank a few spots.

 

I honestly don't try to predict stats. I just rank players on who I think will be better than the other. I look at stats from fftoday mostly when they break down the team projections game by game.

[tanatastic 2,061]

My fav way of ranking is to take cbs sportsline drag and drop by position rankin list and modify it. I can easily drag guys down or up wich is a nice format. what I do is I go through each player and just do a gut instinct twitch drag either up or down, just throwing them around really not paying attention to exactly where. Then I go back and keep doing that til im making more precise moves and only moving guys a spot or 2 at a time. I know thats a little confusing and hard to imagine but it works for me. Then I draw lines between guys where I want the tiers to be.

[ffgiant 10]

I am not a big fan of any of those rankings. But I love to read their reasons behind the ranking, it is the best way to find out if you missed anything.

[JT 137]

There are certainly value to rankings from others as a means of comparison and information. I don't try to project stats.

 

That said, I use them to develop my own ranking and go with it. Part of the challenge of ff is making your own selections, trusting your own thoughts on a team/player. Yeah, I want to win, but ultimately I want it to be MY team that wins, not one I copied and pasted from somebody else.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Ok I take it back, dont use cbssportsline. Go to Cheatsheetwarroom.com. I have used this little site for years. You can rank each position with a drag and drop system then customize your own sheet and print for free! you can add or drop players to the lists to cut out the undraftable players, its just a very nice tool.

[Hawkfin 32]

Definatley my own projections. And I use a a tier based ranking system so I never have to apply actual stats to a player.

I rank and project in relation to each of their peers. I also apply a "per round status" on them. So top 12 overall guy's get marked Red for the highest ranking as an example. So this year I probably have 6 RB's and 5 WR's and 1 TE marked red.
The next 12 (regardless of possition) get say a Orange color and so on. I basically fit players into a ADP type of ranking system along with the tiers that I origanally setup. And all based off my original projection rankings.

Of course my prejections get manupulated by other rankings,media and news. This sometimes to a fault really.
But, I'll take it all under consideration with my personal evaluation and agreement with the data.

 

Works for me I guess.

[weepaws 2,460]

I just get paper and a pen and write down the names I like the most . Then make a list for each position . Then I go down the list and draft . Easy

[Djgb13 2,338]

I just get paper and a pen and write down the names I like the most . Then make a list for each position . Then I go down the list and draft . Easy

Can't argue with that logic. I do the same thing lol

[Breesman32 11]

I don't take projections too seriously either. Its all about the schedule. RBs facing the NFC North and AFC South have big games potential. WRs facing the NFC North and NFC East have big games potential.

[montana 89]

I get a consensus from about 10 sources for an avg. & then tweek them to my liking.

 

Rankings not projections

[tanatastic 2,061]

I get a consensus from about 10 sources for an avg. & then tweek them to my liking.

 

Rankings not projections

Im gettin real sick of seeing you year after year stealing my first name.

[montana 89]

Im gettin real sick of seeing you year after year stealing my first name.

Your first name is One Bad Muthafucka?

[cotarice12 18]

I use custom projections from this site, CBS (We haven't used their site in two years but still have access to it and their updated projections, rankings etc. every year- I get better service from them now than when we paid for it) and maybe one more site to get kind of a consensus, then make make own rankings out of that, adjusting for players I am higher on or lower on.

 

I usually make my player lists much longer than is needed, and use four or five tiers for each position. It's a system that has served me well over the years, but does take a bit of time.