DFS - Week 12

[Mike FF Today 608]

Lots of special Thursday-only contest at the DFS sites this week. As a result, I asked Joe Holka to touch on the Thursday slate in his weekly Daily Guidance column.

 

Week 11 Walkthrough - Swanson

 

I'll dabble a bit in the Thursday games but won't play a heavy volume. I'll save my normal volume for the Sunday-Monday slate. I'm still tinkering with some Thursday-only lineups but having a difficult time finding one I like...

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

We are doing a league that was Monday and Sunday. We cannot adjust our lineup before the Thursday game so i hope Jeffery plays. Gronk was a massive disappointment, but most of the league had him penciled in.

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

Firing up Hoyer and Houston Def in some money games. Reed and Gates have good TE matchups this week.

[Mike FF Today 608]

Raise your hand if you got burned by Charcandrick West and/or Devonta Freeman last week?

 

Andy Swanson recaps one of his DraftKings lineups from last week. There are always lessons to learn...

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

Raise your hand if you got burned by Charcandrick West and/or Devonta Freeman last week?

 

Andy Swanson recaps one of his DraftKings lineups from last week. There are always lessons to learn...

 

(raises hand)

 

Same way the week before I got burned by DeAngelo and Starks.

 

This week I'm rolling with Hoyer almost across the board and K.C.'s Def at home.

 

Definitely going with A. Brown/Hopkins tandem with some cheap running backs.

[Chronic Husker 85]

I was trying to plug in a triple up dfs team with Stafford and Megatron and ran out of time before kickoff.

 

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

I was trying to plug in a triple up dfs team with Stafford and Megatron and ran out of time before kickoff.

 

 

I hear you.

 

There will be guys who went 100% (400 lineups) with that stack.

[shorepatrol 1,737]

I Stafforded and Calvined in my DFS Ima get focked up today on a focking disgusting shocktop holiday 12 pack

[worm 34]

Weekend 50/50 lineup:

 

Eli - 7700

Rawls - 6300

Doug E. Doug - 7500

Hopkins - 9400

Cooks - 7300

Decker - 7100

Reed - 5800

Hopkins - 4500

Jaguars - 4300

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

James jones dropping that td cost me $40. But the Bears won so i am happy.

[adamscountycolts 2]

Raise your hand if you got burned by Charcandrick West and/or Devonta Freeman last week?

 

Andy Swanson recaps one of his DraftKings lineups from last week. There are always lessons to learn...

I raise my hand. Was burned by West. Along with some others who were injured.

[Mike FF Today 608]

Brian Hoyer and Carson Palmer are the only two QBs I like for cash games this week... perhaps Josh McCown also. Seems like most will be paying down at RB with cheapies like Tevin Coleman, Spencer Ware, Buck Allen and Thomas Rawls all set to for decent workloads. DeAndre Hopkins should be the highest owned WR of the week in a juicy matchup against the Saints.

[Chronic Husker 85]

Brian Hoyer and Carson Palmer are the only two QBs I like for cash games this week... perhaps Josh McCown also. Seems like most will be paying down at RB with cheapies like Tevin Coleman, Spencer Ware, Buck Allen and Thomas Rawls all set to for decent workloads. DeAndre Hopkins should be the highest owned WR of the week in a juicy matchup against the Saints.

CJ2K is still underpriced at rb and gets SF this week. Blue is the other big value play, along with the guys you note.

 

Personally, I'm playing all triple ups with 3-10 players max.

 

Rolling with combos of the above RBs, which allows me Hopkins and Beckham.

 

We'll see...

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Roethlesburger

Blue

Rawls

Hopkins

Antonio Brown

Martavis Bryant

Jordan Reed

Janikowski

Chiefs

 

I dont think Seattles pass defense is going to hamper the Steelers offense at all.

[redsrback 30]

On paper I think I nailed it due to the info out there. What happens in the games is secondary. Please give responses to my line-up for it will determine if I want to divulge further info in the future.

QB-Brian Hoyer -nice match-up and cheap

RB-Thomas Rawls- gut check time to see if he can handle last weeks workload and abuse

RB-Spencer Ware-Buffalo not that good against the run and cheap

WR-Beckham Jr

WR-Julio Jones

WR-DeAndre Hopkins

TE-Jordan Cameron-Cheap and price you pay for projected top 3 WRs for the week

Flex-T.J.Yeldon-cheap and top 10 play

Def- Cleveland at home against Baltimore missing there QB and 2 offensive lineman on Monday nite football

[shorepatrol 1,737]

QB - McCown

Eli

RB - Draughn

Doug Martin

WR -ODB

M Bryant

Flex - Ingram

Yeldon

DEF - Pitt

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

I fell victim this week (and every week apparently) to some less than obvious landmines.

 

Hopkins in ALL lineups. A. Brown in several. Hoyer or Palmer in all lineups. Chiefs Def in all lineups.

 

Right moves: Ware in all lineups. Gates in several.

 

 

FML.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I fell victim this week (and every week apparently) to some less than obvious landmines.

 

Hopkins in ALL lineups. A. Brown in several. Hoyer or Palmer in all lineups. Chiefs Def in all lineups.

 

Right moves: Ware in all lineups. Gates in several.

 

 

FML.

I had Hopkins and Antonio in both lineups. What an absolute disaster. So many receivers went off too.

[The Football Guru 212]

I had Hopkins and Antonio in both lineups. What an absolute disaster. So many receivers went off too.

I can understand why some owners opted to go against AB, but only 51.5 percent of players in the DK Millionaire Maker had Hopkins going. It is when I see things like this that I start to believe this thing is a bit shady. Are you going to tell me that a WR with no fewer than 11 targets in any game against the league's worst defense isn't a DFS roster staple that week? After all, Hopkins did pretty well against Revis the previous week, did he not?

[shorepatrol 1,737]

I can understand why some owners opted to go against AB, but only 51.5 percent of players in the DK Millionaire Maker had Hopkins going. It is when I see things like this that I start to believe this thing is a bit shady. Are you going to tell me that a WR with no fewer than 11 targets in any game against the league's worst defense isn't a DFS roster staple that week? After all, Hopkins did pretty well against Revis the previous week, did he not?

I saw it as a trap game fantasy wise. I faded NUK and Hoyer

[The Football Guru 212]

I saw it as a trap game fantasy wise. I faded NUK and Hoyer

I played Nuk in one of my two MM leagues, but my point was that I don't think it is realistic to believe that 140 K entries were being contrarian.

 

I rolled with Hoyer in one of my three DFS entries and McCown in the other two b/c I also saw the potential for a trap game too. With that said, I don't think 51.5 percent of the population had any idea Houston could hold New Orleans without a touchdown.

 

It is getting harder and harder for me to buy into the thinking of some of these winning entries. Let's take No. 1 on the leaderboard this week:

 

Russell Wilson - Until Week 11, exactly one touchdown in eight of his first nine games.

AP - Faced the No. 1 rushing defense in the league in ATL

Rawls - Allowed two rushing TDs to RBs before this week; Ware was an obvious choice to me and was significantly cheaper

Baldwin - Only multi-TD of his career game before this week came near the end of the 2012 season.

OBJ and Landry - Perfectly sound choices

Julius Thomas - No more than 28 yards receiving since Week 6 and only more than 28 yards receiving twice all season

 

I will never discount the possibility of DFS players going with their gut on some of these calls, but 10 minutes of research just now told me this lineup doesn't have a great deal of upside outside of OBJ and Landry. Yet, every single player I listed except for Rawls scored at least 32.2 points.

[Mike FF Today 608]

I can understand why some owners opted to go against AB, but only 51.5 percent of players in the DK Millionaire Maker had Hopkins going. It is when I see things like this that I start to believe this thing is a bit shady. Are you going to tell me that a WR with no fewer than 11 targets in any game against the league's worst defense isn't a DFS roster staple that week? After all, Hopkins did pretty well against Revis the previous week, did he not?

 

Specifically to Hopkins, his 51.5 ownership percentage in the MM doesn't seem low to me, but I'd have to look back at the ownership percentages of other obvious chalk plays this season and see how he compares. It actually seems about right. I just did a quick look at the FanDuel tournaments I entered this week and he was anywhere from 49.5 - 53.5% owned. In my cash games his ownership level was much higher... 69.4 - 73.5 percent owned.

 

My own philosophy for this week was this, I was heavily on Hopkins in my cash games so I wanted very little exposure to him in my tournament entries... hedging my bet in case Hopkins had a bad game, and giving me some leverage on a player that I figured to be highly owned. I chose to use Julio, Beckham instead in tournaments along with Decker so it worked out fine.

 

I also thought there was reasonable chance (25-30%) the Steelers-Seahawks game would turn into a shootout given both teams were among the best at not allowing fantasy points to RBs (less running, more throwing) and actually heard some other pundits with the same feeling. That, coupled with being contrarian, knowing Russell Wilson would lowly owned in tournaments, I ran out a Seattle-Pittsburgh stack that unfortunately included Jimmy Graham instead of Doug Baldwin. That decision, which I debated for awhile, will cost me first place in a tournament with 16K entries (I finished 7th), but it's a viable strategy that works in large-field tournaments and I use it quite a bit.

 

Since I had a similar philosophy on Wilson and the shootout potential, I'm not as surprised as you by the winning lineup in the MM. While I thought it was unlikely, I thought it was great tournament play and had a few lineup variations based on the SEA/PIT game. I'm wondering if you're years devoted to studying players, constantly looking at value and matchups for season-long leagues is swaying your opinion here on lineup construction for large-field tournaments? I mention it, because it was something that took me a while to get past when I first started playing DFS a couple years ago.

Edited December 2, 2015 by Mike FF Today

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

It is getting harder and harder for me to buy into the thinking of some of these winning entries. Let's take No. 1 on the leaderboard this week:

 

Russell Wilson - Until Week 11, exactly one touchdown in eight of his first nine games.

AP - Faced the No. 1 rushing defense in the league in ATL

Rawls - Allowed two rushing TDs to RBs before this week; Ware was an obvious choice to me and was significantly cheaper

Baldwin - Only multi-TD of his career game before this week came near the end of the 2012 season.

OBJ and Landry - Perfectly sound choices

Julius Thomas - No more than 28 yards receiving since Week 6 and only more than 28 yards receiving twice all season

 

I will never discount the possibility of DFS players going with their gut on some of these calls, but 10 minutes of research just now told me this lineup doesn't have a great deal of upside outside of OBJ and Landry. Yet, every single player I listed except for Rawls scored at least 32.2 points.

 

Solid analysis however Atlanta run defense rankings are all over the place. AP would have been a good play given the volume he would probably get.

 

I, too question some of these entries especially when someone rolls a near perfect lineup and avoided all the landmines that were out there this week. However, the MM are multi-entry ones, right? I have to remind myself each week that someone may have put in dozens or even hundreds of lineups that are merely dart throws.

 

The ones that I tend to HIGHLY question are the single entry perfect dart throws with 3 low probability players going off. I had one of those where this new guy (just joined ) entered 2 contests with 3 total entries for $9 and hit for $130,000.00 (1st and 1st, 2nd) then disappears. I've checked back on him months later and he is still hasn't played. Coincidence or fishy?

[Maulers1973 117]

 

Solid analysis however Atlanta run defense rankings are all over the place. AP would have been a good play given the volume he would probably get.

 

I, too question some of these entries especially when someone rolls a near perfect lineup and avoided all the landmines that were out there this week. However, the MM are multi-entry ones, right? I have to remind myself each week that someone may have put in dozens or even hundreds of lineups that are merely dart throws.

 

The ones that I tend to HIGHLY question are the single entry perfect dart throws with 3 low probability players going off. I had one of those where this new guy (just joined ) entered 2 contests with 3 total entries for $9 and hit for $130,000.00 (1st and 1st, 2nd) then disappears. I've checked back on him months later and he is still hasn't played. Coincidence or fishy?

 

That's the dagger red flag right there. I suspect it is an alias for an insider. I don't have to be able to prove they're cheating to know it's happening. The smart play in my opinion is for me to not play on that platform. Truth, be told, my $25.00 on Yahoo has expired, and I refuse to invest another penny in this rigged crapola.

[The Football Guru 212]

 

Solid analysis however Atlanta run defense rankings are all over the place. AP would have been a good play given the volume he would probably get.

 

I, too question some of these entries especially when someone rolls a near perfect lineup and avoided all the landmines that were out there this week. However, the MM are multi-entry ones, right? I have to remind myself each week that someone may have put in dozens or even hundreds of lineups that are merely dart throws.

 

The ones that I tend to HIGHLY question are the single entry perfect dart throws with 3 low probability players going off. I had one of those where this new guy (just joined ) entered 2 contests with 3 total entries for $9 and hit for $130,000.00 (1st and 1st, 2nd) then disappears. I've checked back on him months later and he is still hasn't played. Coincidence or fishy?

I'll address Mike's reply at a later time b/c I think there is certainly some validity to what he is saying. And yes, Atlanta's defense is difficult to run against in reality, but have yielded 15 rushing and receiving TDs to RBs, which has made it a defense for owners to target in fantasy.

 

I don't have the time to look through the top 50-100 entries, but I saw where one top-15 guy had 80-plus $20 entries in the Millionaire Maker last week and I'm pretty sure another top-15 guy had about 60 or so entries this past week. More power to you if you have the disposable income to do that...I don't.

 

I'm with you, the ones I question are the single-entry dart throws. I'm supposedly an "insider" and study this stuff as much as anyone and will admit when I should have played one player over another. Having said that, my lone entry for the week would not have featured a Wilson-Rawls-Baldwin stack against Pittsburgh when Wilson hasn't exactly been tearing it up in the TD column this year, Baldwin is not the team's top red-zone option and Rawls wasn't even the smart play at his price range (Ware was), never mind the defense that had yielded two rushing TDs to RBs until Week 12.