Ray_T

hey guys, I'm totally sorry. I wont be able to do it. I really want to but there is too much going on and I have some work commitments I cannot get out of. I would be happy to return to do this next year, but I cannot do it this year.

he would have been lawyered up before the media knew about it I'm pretty sure. Pretty sure his agent got involved real quick to make sure his client stayed as clean as possible. if he doesnt get paid the agent doesnt get paid and I'm sure that the agent is earning his salary with this kid. as for the 9AM thing. I have a family member who used to drink. he was fine while drinking but when he stopped drinking he would get very moody and sometimes downright nasty. for some it happens when they are drinking. for others they get nasty just as the hangover is about to kick in. if they partied til the sun comes up (not unheard of at that age) 9AM sounds like exactly the time when this sort of incident would occur. I am not saying thats the way it went down, all I'm saying is 9AM isnt as unreasonable a time for this as you would think.

I was gonna ask why you want to make this deal, but I guess that is obvious. what I dont like about CMC is his injury history. but then again Taylor also has been injured a fair bit. JT has also been injured a bit. playing 11, 10 and 14 games the last 3 years. both players have been injured though When CMC gets injured the year tends to be a writeoff. he is the ultimate boom bust player. But CMC is 29. This is likely his last kick at the can in terms of putting up elite numbers. JT is 26. so you are giving up potentially a lot of futures...... but if you think this trade gives you a championship you should consider it. I wouldnt be inclined to veto this. the other guy is giving up some present value but gaining an awful lot of future values. This is truly one of those trades that could burn you as easily as crown you king of the league. its a coin flip. but in a years time he will still have a Jonathan Taylor and a solid second QB and CMC will be 30. At that point he could be untradeable. anyhow, I'd definitely say no to the Veto. I just put forward an argument that there is a legit chance you may not actually win the trade. That should be enough unless you are in a veto happy league.

what set him apart was the strategies he did. they were solid. but more importantly the under appreciated part of his game was developing undrafted players into viable NFL starters. during his time in New England the Pats did a really good job of this. whether this is 100% him I cannot say. generally coaching is just as much a team sport as playing. he had good people under him that developed a lot of 2nd tier talent into players who can start. for me, this was the most impressive of his achievements. he and Pete Carroll at one point had the best record for developing Undrafted players into NFL starters. for the most part, they stood apart from the rest of the league. and with any team coaching is part x and O analysis but part of it is training and teaching and developing young players and preparing them for the game.

or minimal suspension. if there is a video from the mall, the league could conceivably suspend him anyways. either way. you dont want to be suspended during your rookie season. thats the time when you learn the most. not a good start.

I'm not sure any RB can do that with the raiders. Maybe Sequon. He got 10 in 2022 with the Giants and they were pretty bad too. (at least their line was)

ouch. good way to stop your career before its actually started.

for fantasy yes. But the team is also trying to develop a QB. The extra pressure of not having a defense that can perform may not necessarily be good for the development of the player. there is also a point where the bad defense really does hinder the QB numbers. if its a bad run D the other team can run the ball all the way down the field and kill off a good chunk of the quarter. so you want a D that defends the run well and gives up plays in the pass game. (for fantasy purposes) that is the sweet spot for fantasy if you have a very good QB running the offense

ok point made. it has happened twice.

I'd be surprised if he falls into round 3. I'm just telling you where I assess the risk.

yep and people have been drafting people coming back from ACL surgery ever since because one phenominal athlete came back from the surgery in 8 months (or something stupid like that) and performed like a champ. I dont think I've ever seen this happen before or since. ADP is just one hell of an athlete with some kind of superhuman abilty to heal from injury. Others would call him a freak of nature (in a good way) to that end, I never put people on a DND list. I always project a value taking the injury(and risk associated with it) into account and when I hit that point I pull the trigger. but I am very meticulous about how I apply my modifiers when I make adjustments for injury. often it gives me an advantage, but sometimes I blow it. there are times when you project a guy to return in 24 months and draft him and guess what.... hes not ready or it turns out hes done. that happens too. like it or not an ACL injury still has the potential to end the career of some players. its not as common as it once was, but it still will occasionally happen. so its not an exact science. its mostly about calculating the odds and getting it right. and when you pick a guy coming back from an ACL tear there is still like a 3-5% chance that injury was a career killer. likely a 3% chance he recovers like ADP did. but for the rest, its typically 16-20 months. +/- a couple months.

I also agree he is the real deal. in the draft analysis I looked at the tape and found his to be the most impressive. then I stupidly went out and spent a lot of draft capital to take Caleb in my keeper league because I felt he had better talent around him and was more likely to make an early impact. I rejected my own analysis because I felt the situation was better and Caleb had far better WR and I've regretted it since. this kid is so good that none of that actually mattered. I'd be surprised if he regressed and if he does it will be a mild regression. This kid has it. There is no denying that.

I thought there was some risk last year due to the large workload he has had over his career. but he was 30 at the time and was going from a lesser O ine to a better O line. While a lot of RB's hit the wall at around 30, I figured the odds were pretty good the two would offset each other. I also figured a lot of his game is built around power. Not speed. so losing a half step will affect him but not by as much as other RB's but now he is 31. in terms of the # of RB who put up RB1 numbers at this age, the field has shrunk fairly substantially compared to the # of RB's who have put up RB1 numbers at the age of 30. for me he has reached a tipping point in terms of this and I'd say the odds are at least 50-50 that he will disappoint if taken in the first 2 rounds. So risk wise, hes a coin flip if going in round 1 or 2. if he falls into round 3 the odds drop off a fair bit as the bar is considerably lower. There is no doubt in my mind that whether he produces or not, this is likely his last year being drafted as a RB1(at least some will still draft him as a RB1). and he has had one Hell of a Career. I will admit. I am a fan. not many RB's in the history of the game actually run through people like he does/did. but he is very close to the end of the line. I really hope he has another big year, but a part of me feels like he will put up a Meh type year or will get injured and that will be his last hurrah. to be clear, most RB careers at this age end in injury and when they come back they are unable to perform. food for your thoughts.

looks like he went Zero RB. Strategy can work if you nail your WR/QB picks, and I do like his WR and Hurts at QB is about as good as it gets for fantasy. I think he does have a chance to pull it off if the RB he does select outperform their draft position. It has been my experience that the Zero RB strategy has its best chance to work when you are the only one in the draft using that general strategy. Robb also went Zero RB, so I guess we shall see how that works out for the two of them. Overall I think it was a well done draft. good job guys.

Yeah, thats what it feels like doesnt it?