jdon 28 Posted November 22, 2014 Ahhhh, here we go again! The 'ole luck vs skill debate. It's been a few days. We're slipping. You tell me how I am 35-9 in four leagues. How I'm in first or second in all four leagues. How I'm the top scoring team in 3 of 4. How in my two annual leagues, I am almost always in the playoffs (16 of 17), if not the championship. How is that luck? Surely my "luck" would turn. Surely others would have theirs turn at some point, no? NO! Because it is NOT luck! Sure, there is some luck in each week's game play. This player gets tackled at the one and someone else scores. But over several players, and the more the better, the luck aspect as minimized. You play 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 DEF and you get a greater luck factor. Also, if it's very TD heavy, the greater the luck. BUT, my leagues have more starters and the scoring is spread out so as to not be so TD heavy - minimizing the luck and maximizing the skill. I always revert back to saying: it takes skill to make the playoffs and luck to win them. I think this is very true and I have clear history and experience to prove it. But then again, I win. If I routinely lost I might cry luck too! rather myopic take I think: no one gives a about your record. That said, I have been playing since 2001 and have played in over 70 leagues during that time. My brother and I ran some numbers this summer and a team that picked 1,2,3 won 80% of championships. (obviously we left auctions out). If you are competent and pick top three you should compete. The only surprising thing we found was that picks at the end of second and begining of third really made the difference as each year there are around 22-25 players who are actually dominant... cool eh? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Law 220 Posted November 22, 2014 again no one can realistically say that fantasy football is 100 percent luck there is obviously a good amount of skill that can go into it but you're a perfect example of people who think that if they do well it's all because of their own skill and there was no luck involved just like the poker players who think that every hand they win was based on their skill but when they took a bad beat the other player always got lucky and sucked out I'm the perfect example huh? Guess I'm self-delusional enough to not recognize my luck over TEN PLUS years of winning! Guess you're ready skills are sad enough that you missed the part about the luck being minimized by more players, better scoring. Or perhaps those comments didn't suit your agenda and attempt at a point. Those who speak in absolute like "all" and "no" prove their ignorance "every" time. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fozapd 8 Posted November 22, 2014 Losers call it luck. Not sure about your league, but I am in a one-keeper league and it is consistently the same teams in the playoffs. Sure, you get the blips where a team is devastated by injuries, but if you are consistently out of the playoffs and there are other teams in the same league that are consistently in the playoffs, then it is not luck. Knowledge can make what others perceive as luck. Fantasy football is a skill but luck decides it. Typically 6 out of 12 owners are dependable playoff contenders and the other six losers. Some years 1-2 teams may switch for a year but typically the skilled owners make the playoffs more often than not. I've been playing since the 90s and that's how it plays out most times. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Law 220 Posted November 22, 2014 I will commend some of you on the draft position take. That's a new twist to this repeated discussion. It's still an excuse though. Did you draft last in each round? Or did it serpentine? I ask because would you not be able to get, in theory, a better player every other round? I drafted 6, 2, 6, and 3 in my leagues this year. Too bad for me because I prefer the turns. Bottom is even better, but I'll take the top too. Problem with the top is higher risk. You miss, or your player disappoints, and your #2 player is lower than if you had picked last and first. But again, if you're not drafted serpentine, I can see how draft position can really impact your team. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
extrmmxer 2 Posted November 22, 2014 I was the 2nd highest scorer in my league last year and only won 2 games. Fantasy Football is at least 80% luck. Sure you can make a few good or bad calls but ultimately you don't know how a player will perform or if he'll get hurt. The team that's projected to dominate loses. I see it every week. Last week I should of got destroyed but luckily Peyton didn't have his normal 380 yds and 4 td game. We all like to credit ourselves with out smarting our opponents or finding the fantasy gold sleeper and say, see I knew it. But realistically we don't really know how a player will perform week in and week out. Eventhough, I consider FF to be decided by a lot of luck, it's still fun as hell. And yes, I act like I'm a genius when I win. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 22, 2014 there's no luck involved with how players perform, it's unfortunate when they don't perform as well as we'd like them to Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murf74 461 Posted November 22, 2014 there's no luck involved with how players perform, it's unfortunate when they don't perform as well as we'd like them toIs it unlucky when your wr is open in endzone and he gets mugged by cb? Is it unlucky when your qb throws a great pass that bounces off wr stone hands for an int? Is it unlucky when your stud wr's qb gets hurt and his backup isn't as good and performance of your wr suffers? Does the bad weather affect performance as compared others playing in good weather? Is that not a luck / unluck affect on performance Those are just some examples of luck involved in performance. I could go on and on BTW first place in one leave and 4th in another. Make playoffs almost every league I play in Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 22, 2014 Is it unlucky when your wr is open in endzone and he gets mugged by cb? Is it unlucky when your qb throws a great pass that bounces off wr stone hands for an int? Is it unlucky when your stud wr's qb gets hurt and his backup isn't as good and performance of your wr suffers? Does the bad weather affect performance as compared others playing in good weather? Is that not a luck / unluck affect on performance Those are just some examples of luck involved in performance. I could go on and on BTW first place in one leave and 4th in another. Make playoffs almost every league I play in all these things are unfortunate, not luck also, your opponent has the same chance to have unfortunate things happen to his team as well luck is winning the lottery Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murf74 461 Posted November 22, 2014 all these things are unfortunate, not luck also, your opponent has the same chance to have unfortunate things happen to his team as well luck is winning the lottery All you are doing is playing with words. Luck involves randomness which weather, injuries, penalties, and fantasy team opponent ....all involve You guys pretend like you have control over all these factors Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 22, 2014 well, ff is a strategy game where everyone involved is on the same level playing field and requires skill to field a team and then make the necessary changes thorughout the season to put your team in the best position to win all the things you mentioned: weather, injuries, penalties, opponent affect everyone the same to make ff a game of chance and luck you'd have to add elements like flip cards that would add random chance to the game, ie you can remove one player from the opposing team's roster, or add 15 bonus pts to your final score (these are the types of things would add the element of luck to ff) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Forty Niner Homer 3 Posted November 22, 2014 Drafting Luck in the 6th round was all skillAgree, I drafted Kapperniic first round / Vernon Davis second round That was plain Stupid Homer wishing with Heart Not using brain Made some trades Now I have Stafford Calvin Dez Gates Better but mistakes in roster adjusting cost me 3 games and why I'm hoping for miracle Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
posty 2,296 Posted November 22, 2014 Still funny that people think that there is "skill" in this game... It is all luck and when you all realize that, it is more enjoyable... Skill... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Beyond Chaos 75 Posted November 22, 2014 Currently in 2 leagues, same set up (10 teams, standard scoring, same no. of positions). My only overlapping player is a K Suisham. League Place Record Pts. For Pts. For Rank Pts. Against Pts. Against Rank 1 2 7-4 1140.24 1 995.66 9 2 7 4-7 1158.02 2 1167.68 1 Clearly 'luck' or rather 'variance' is involved. In both leagues, I have scored over 100 points 7/11 weeks, so the difference is not due to 'wild fluctuations'. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vash1012 19 Posted November 22, 2014 Its hilarious that people think fantasy football is mostly "skill". Skill to do what? You have to make maybe 3-4 decisions each week unless you are playing in an 8 team league where everyone has a stacked bench. I ended up with 2 top 5 WR and 2 top 5-7 RB, great bench depth, and decent set of QB's this year. I got M. Sanu, J. Hill, Miami DEF, and Mike Evans off the waiver Wire. You honestly can't play this game better than I have this year. On paper, I should be vying for the top spot in the league. I'm not. I'm 5-6 and need 2 people to lose out and me to win out to get in the playoffs. I've played the guy with the best match ups and the hottest hand each week and I've been wrong 75% of the time. I've lost at least 3 games by <10 points that I would have won if I played either my other QB or my other RB who had a worse match up or had stunk it up last week. Unless you are clairvoyant, you can't know whose going to perform better. You do your best to tip the odds in your favor and you wait to see how lucky you are. Anyone who says otherwise is delusional. Oh and this is after winning 2 of 3 leagues last year and finishing in the top 3 in all of my leagues every year I played since 2008. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JtmoneyJag 25 Posted November 22, 2014 I make playoffs in probably 80 to 90 percent of leagues since 1995 and I still think it's mostly 75% luck and 25% skill. However that 25% of roster management in trades, draft, free agents, and who to start is what separates the men from the boys. Once you get to the playoffs it's more like 95% luck to win it all That last part I agree with. I'm in 4 decent size $ leagues this year and while scoring high in all but one, I'm fighting just to make the playoffs in 1 and the other 1 need some help and also need to win out. Having said that I made a few bad decisions that would have changed my outlook (and these aren't after the fact decisions, these are what in the hell was I thinking decisions). Anyways, depending on how it pans out it may be a good or bad fantasy year, but overall, I've never lost money in fantasy football except for my first year. So, I think luck is involved, but skill (or knowledge) is what separates you over your competitors over the long haul. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JtmoneyJag 25 Posted November 22, 2014 Its hilarious that people think fantasy football is mostly "skill". Skill to do what? You have to make maybe 3-4 decisions each week unless you are playing in an 8 team league where everyone has a stacked bench. I ended up with 2 top 5 WR and 2 top 5-7 RB, great bench depth, and decent set of QB's this year. I got M. Sanu, J. Hill, Miami DEF, and Mike Evans off the waiver Wire. You honestly can't play this game better than I have this year. On paper, I should be vying for the top spot in the league. I'm not. I'm 5-6 and need 2 people to lose out and me to win out to get in the playoffs. I've played the guy with the best match ups and the hottest hand each week and I've been wrong 75% of the time. I've lost at least 3 games by <10 points that I would have won if I played either my other QB or my other RB who had a worse match up or had stunk it up last week. Unless you are clairvoyant, you can't know whose going to perform better. You do your best to tip the odds in your favor and you wait to see how lucky you are. Anyone who says otherwise is delusional. Oh and this is after winning 2 of 3 leagues last year and finishing in the top 3 in all of my leagues every year I played since 2008. Don't play in 8 team leagues. You are diminishing the skill involved. The more players you have to study, the less likely your opponents will. You can call it skill, knowledge or even consistency over a season, but those who put more effort into fantasy football will do better than those that don't. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JtmoneyJag 25 Posted November 22, 2014 Still funny that people think that there is "skill" in this game... It is all luck and when you all realize that, it is more enjoyable... Skill... When you realize it is not all luck, you will start being a better fantasy football player. I've been in the playoffs 7 out of 8 years in my main league and won championship 3 times out of 10 years (12 teams). Year before I won main league in a 14 teamer that I've been in for 4 years now and made playoffs every time. The year before I won 14 team main league I won in my friends league (I got kicked out for talking to much smack ). Anyways, point is, I don't know if skill is the right word, but putting the time into studying players, doing mocks and being prepared and most importantly consistently doing your homework for waiver wire picks while also looking ahead at your schedule and byes sets you apart from your competition. It's the little things over a period of time that produces consistent winning. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
joeshushu 51 Posted November 22, 2014 People who claim it's all skill are kidding themselves. I've been playing FF in some capacity since I was 13. I've been in leagues where I won 4 straight titles, leagues where I lost the title game 5 times in 6 years...yes that is correct. I lost 3 straight, missed the playoffs and lost another 2 before the league folded... and leagues where I've missed the playoffs 2 or 3 years in a row. There is skill involved to an extent but there is far more luck involved than a lot of "gurus" care to admit. Like poker players. This, I mean this year I have the second highest point total and except for a miny 3 game win streak it seemed I played teams that hit their biggest output for the season (eg played the dued that had 3 TD Donnell/Charles combo one week). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 22, 2014 ff's like sex, it takes lots of skill to manipulte all the pieces and parts, but when you do it right, the outcome will blow your mind (and other areas as well) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murf74 461 Posted November 22, 2014 well, ff is a strategy game where everyone involved is on the same level playing field and requires skill to field a team and then make the necessary changes thorughout the season to put your team in the best position to win all the things you mentioned: weather, injuries, penalties, opponent affect everyone the same to make ff a game of chance and luck you'd have to add elements like flip cards that would add random chance to the game, ie you can remove one player from the opposing team's roster, or add 15 bonus pts to your final score (these are the types of things would add the element of luck to ff) So pretty much no luck is involved is what you are saying? If that is the case why is it that everyone doesn't have the exact same record in every league they play in. I mean if you are in control of your fantasy destiny and so good add it why the varying records. Can't wait to hear this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
posty 2,296 Posted November 22, 2014 When you realize it is not all luck, you will start being a better fantasy football player. I've been in the playoffs 7 out of 8 years in my main league and won championship 3 times out of 10 years (12 teams). Year before I won main league in a 14 teamer that I've been in for 4 years now and made playoffs every time. The year before I won 14 team main league I won in my friends league (I got kicked out for talking to much smack ). Anyways, point is, I don't know if skill is the right word, but putting the time into studying players, doing mocks and being prepared and most importantly consistently doing your homework for waiver wire picks while also looking ahead at your schedule and byes sets you apart from your competition. It's the little things over a period of time that produces consistent winning. Doing your homework and being prepared isn't skill, it is just being prepared... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murf74 461 Posted November 22, 2014 Doing your homework and being prepared isn't skill, it is just being prepared... But preparation does not help when your guy gets hurt in first quarter or your wr gets held every time he is open for a TD 25% preparation / skill the rest we just sit and cross our fingers all game and of course hope our opponent doesn't have the game of his year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 22, 2014 So pretty much no luck is involved is what you are saying? If that is the case why is it that everyone doesn't have the exact same record in every league they play in. I mean if you are in control of your fantasy destiny and so good add it why the varying records. Can't wait to hear this well, when playing in multiple leagues you're pitted against different opponents who have different players which, of course, will affect the outcome of your matchup, plus the scoring can be different from league to league what i'm saying is the actual game of ff is a strategy game where everyone playing is on equal ground and there are no luck elements (pick a card, spin the wheel of misfortune, etc) in the game of ff that will cause one person to gain an unfair (or lucky) advantage in the weekly matchups i've played ff for years and have never felt lucky or unlucky...to me it's one of the best developed games of strategy i've ever played Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murf74 461 Posted November 22, 2014 well, when playing in multiple leagues you're pitted against different opponents who have different players which, of course, will affect the outcome of your matchup, plus the scoring can be different from league to league what i'm saying is the actual game of ff is a strategy game where everyone playing is on equal ground and there are no luck elements (pick a card, spin the wheel of misfortune, etc) in the game of ff that will cause one person to gain an unfair (or lucky) advantage in the weekly matchups i've played ff for years and have never felt lucky or unlucky...to me it's one of the best developed games of strategy i've ever played Ok you really don't read whT you write. Your #1 element listed for difference in records is your weekly opponent. Do you chose your opponent? Or is it a randomly generated auto schedule? L U C K If you won 85-70 and your division rival lost 125-120 did you get lucky by randomly getting chosen to play your opponent that week vs a much tougher opponent? You didn't prepare any better than the guy that lost and I would argue you prepared worse yet you won. No strategy there just luck Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
southcarolina 166 Posted November 22, 2014 You are all arguing semantics. There are elements of both skill and luck in FF. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murf74 461 Posted November 22, 2014 You are all arguing semantics. There are elements of both skill and luck in FF. Yes but those that say it's all one way or the other are kidding themselves. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 22, 2014 Ok you really don't read whT you write. Your #1 element listed for difference in records is your weekly opponent. Do you chose your opponent? Or is it a randomly generated auto schedule? L U C K If you won 85-70 and your division rival lost 125-120 did you get lucky by randomly getting chosen to play your opponent that week vs a much tougher opponent? You didn't prepare any better than the guy that lost and I would argue you prepared worse yet you won. No strategy there just luck good point, but those things aren't really luck as they are a part of the game that place everyone on equal footing also, what makes one opponent tougher than antother is the skill in choosing players and making proper roster adjustments Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
southcarolina 166 Posted November 22, 2014 Yes but those that say it's all one way or the other are kidding themselves. Nothing is absolute. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 22, 2014 Yes but those that say it's all one way or the other are kidding themselves. i guess i agree to disagree with you and maybe it's the way we look at ff as a strategy game i don't see the luck elements in ff as i can see them in other games like monopoly or wheel of fortune Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murf74 461 Posted November 22, 2014 good point, but those things aren't really luck as they are a part of the game that place everyone on equal footing also, what makes one opponent tougher than antother is the skill in choosing players and making proper roster adjustments I think you have thought highly of your "skill" and refuse to use the word "luck". Schedule draw is spin of wheel luck of draw. You still haven't answered what strategy leads you to win while other teams in your league lose even though they out scored you for the week. You had equal probability of drawing the bad matchup. It's math/statistics equal probability. It's a flip of your coin. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 22, 2014 I think you have thought highly of your "skill" and refuse to use the word "luck". Schedule draw is spin of wheel luck of draw. You still haven't answered what strategy leads you to win while other teams in your league lose even though they out scored you for the week. You had equal probability of drawing the bad matchup. It's math/statistics equal probability. It's a flip of your coin. agian, what makes the spin of the wheel for drawing opponents luck for you is the strength of the opponent you draw, correct? what makes your opponent strength an issue is their skill ability to put together a strong team...who wouldn't want to play the raiders and jags every week...which brings up another interseting thought was the radiers win over the chiefs luck or skill? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
southcarolina 166 Posted November 22, 2014 At work we have to cover monthly call in days. The old method of choosing days was the most senior person got first choice. Then the second, then third, etc. When they ran of of days, whichever person was the first person to not have a call in day this month chose first the next month. When they go to the end of the list of people, (the least senior person) the order reverted to the most senior person and started again. In a typical year each employee would get 8 or 9 call in days. For some reason this system was deemed "unfair" So someone devised a new method. Now a lady come around and we draw numbers out of a hat. The number we draw is the slot we pick in. If i draw a 1, i pick first. If i draw a 14, i pick 14th. Under the new system, if you dont pick a low enough number to get a call in day, good on you. It effects nothing the next month. When i argued that this system was unfair, because now its possible for some people to get more or less call in days over the course of a year i was treated like i was a moron. I argued that just because something is random, does not make it fair. Fair was everyone getting the same number of call in days per year. Random was the possibility (admittedly slim) of someone never getting a call in day, or getting one every single month. That would be absolutely the very definition of unfair. People acted like i didnt understand what the word fair meant. Of course most of them dont understand that they arent making more money working OT on a holiday than if they work OT on a regular day. This thread reminds me of that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SaintsInDome2006 128 Posted November 22, 2014 You are all arguing semantics. There are elements of both skill and luck in FF. Exactly. I think maybe the biggest element of luck is the FF opponent you draw in your own league each week. You get Team A for no apparent reason when they max out on points and meanwhile Team B wins by putting up 80 against a team that had 3 players on bye. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 22, 2014 Exactly. I think maybe the biggest element of luck is the FF opponent you draw in your own league each week. You get Team A for no apparent reason when they max out on points and meanwhile Team B wins by putting up 80 against a team that had 3 players on bye. the draw of an opponent as being lucky or unlucky is found in the strength of the opponent which is found in the skill said opponent used to develop his team, which of course involved no luck at all 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murf74 461 Posted November 22, 2014 the draw of an opponent as being lucky or unlucky is found in the strength of the opponent which is found in the skill said opponent used to develop his team, which of course involved no luck at all Ok you are totally blowing off the fact that you can get a win scoring less points than other teams when they lose. How is that not luck that you get a win and another guy gets a loss when he outscored you by dozens of points. It's luck that you got an easy opponent and not the tough one. You had equal probability of getting the bad matchup. LUCK Seriously are you playing stupid or are you just blowing off this fact. The. Umber one factor in your success in ff is your record. But you have no control over who your opponent is. LUCK If you can't acknowlege your opponent draw week to week is not a form of luck you have no credibility on this issue Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Forty Niner Homer 3 Posted November 22, 2014 You are all arguing semantics. There are elements of both skill and luck in FF. I would have to agree⬆ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 22, 2014 Ok you are totally blowing off the fact that you can get a win scoring less points than other teams when they lose. How is that not luck that you get a win and another guy gets a loss when he outscored you by dozens of points. It's luck that you got an easy opponent and not the tough one. You had equal probability of getting the bad matchup. LUCK Seriously are you playing stupid or are you just blowing off this fact. The. Umber one factor in your success in ff is your record. But you have no control over who your opponent is. LUCK If you can't acknowlege your opponent draw week to week is not a form of luck you have no credibility on this issue i agree that the drawing of an opponent is luck, but you're blowing off the fact that what makes the draw of an opponent lucky or unlucky is the skill they used in creating their team...you're saying that it's lucky for me to draw an opponents whose team sucks as opposed to you who drew an opponent that has a stacked team...i can't help that my opponent has poor ff skills in putting a team together while your opponent has good ff skills Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murf74 461 Posted November 22, 2014 i agree that the drawing of an opponent is luck, but you're blowing off the fact that what makes the draw of an opponent lucky or unlucky is the skill they used in creating their team...you're saying that it's lucky for me to draw an opponents whose team sucks as opposed to you who drew an opponent that has a stacked team...i can't help that my opponent has poor ff skills in putting a team together while your opponent has good ff skillsOK you have finally acknowlege luck in scheduling And since it affects every week it's a huge factor. I go back to my original. 75% luck and 25% skill. The luck evens itself out over the course of regular season to all teams so your 25% skill is what puts you over the top and makes it fun Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
southcarolina 166 Posted November 22, 2014 OK you have finally acknowlege luck in scheduling And since it affects every week it's a huge factor. I go back to my original. 75% luck and 25% skill. The luck evens itself out over the course of regular season to all teams so your 25% skill is what puts you over the top and makes it fun You couldnt be more wrong. Its 73% luck and 27% skill. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murf74 461 Posted November 22, 2014 You couldnt be more wrong. Its 73% luck and 27% skill. Nevah!!!!!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
