Flyfreak 84 Posted November 22, 2014 you guys are lucky I don't pull my switch out Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Law 251 Posted November 22, 2014 Ok you are totally blowing off the fact that you can get a win scoring less points than other teams when they lose. How is that not luck that you get a win and another guy gets a loss when he outscored you by dozens of points. It's luck that you got an easy opponent and not the tough one. You had equal probability of getting the bad matchup. LUCK Ok then. It's clear the NFL itself, which teams are good and which are bad, is ALL luck! Teams lose every week scoring fewer points than teams that won. They got a tough opponent while others got easy ones. LUCK Clearly, the NFL and all of FF should drop this H2H nonsense and do won/loss ranking purely on points scored. THAT would remove this LUCK factor of random scheduling!! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Connorsdad 38 Posted November 22, 2014 This topic seems to come up every so often. Which has more influence on your fantasy football team ? Luck or Skill? Of course we all know when you win its because your a fantasy football genius and when you lose its all about the fantasy football gods have cast a curse on you. Personally I think ff is about 60% Skill and 40% Luck. Yes it takes skill to know who to draft, who are the great sleepers, the good value picks and to stay away from, you know those players on your DND list like Darren McFadden. During the draft a few unexpected players can fall to you and it takes skill, smarts and doing your homework to execute the right draft pick. Also each week it takes skill to start the right players that have the best chance to outperform your opponents player at that position. It also takes skill to pay close attention to the waiver wire and grab the next big player first. Of course there is a small amount of luck in everything you do. But being prepared and doing research can minimize the luck factor. There are a few areas of ff where luck plays a bigger role. Such as your division, weekly schedule, injuries, duds by studs, one week wonders, surprise breakouts by bench players. Every week is so important in ff more so then any other sport. Most weeks it's tough to survive a dud stomping a stud. A good example, I'm starting Calvin Johnson and he has 3 catches 42 yards no tds. My opponent is starting Justin Hunter because of a bye week and he gets 5 catches 140 yards 2 tds. I lose cause of bad luck. I did everything right. Started the best lineup and still lost. Good Luck !! Wait I mean Good Skill !! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 22, 2014 you didn't lose due to bad luck, you lost because your opponent got more points from his players regardless of the circumstances in which he chose those players Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murf74 461 Posted November 22, 2014 Ok then. It's clear the NFL itself, which teams are good and which are bad, is ALL luck! Teams lose every week scoring fewer points than teams that won. They got a tough opponent while others got easy ones. LUCK Clearly, the NFL and all of FF should drop this H2H nonsense and do won/loss ranking purely on points scored. THAT would remove this LUCK factor of random scheduling!! You are smarter than that at least I thought you were. In the NFL it's a real game where you have an offense vs defense vs special teams going AGAINST each other. In fantasy you cannot keep your opponent from doing anything. It's unrelated. Your team will score it's point and your opponent scores it's points totally INDEPENDENT from each other. Unless you score the best in your league every week matchups are as important a as who you start and how they play. You can score 90 and win or you can score 90 and lose. Only difference? An independent luck of schedule draw I feel like some of you are just pretending to not understand this very simple fact and concept. You see it would be like NFL having Piits offense have to outscore New Orleans offense next week however don't have the two teams play each other. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murf74 461 Posted November 22, 2014 you didn't lose due to bad luck, you lost because your opponent got more points from his players regardless of the circumstances in which he chose those playersHowever your division opponent could get lucky and score less than you and get a win while you lose with better team and better score and better performance So first round of playoffs you are seated #1 and lose 125-120 test the 4th seated team wins 90-85 the same week. You are saying #4 seed team scoring 90 is more deserving of win than #1 seed scoring 120? Who had better week? #1 seed should have kept his opponent out of endzone? Wait what you can't do that in fantasy ? Ob Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 22, 2014 However your division opponent could get lucky and score less than you and get a win while you lose with better team and better score and better performance So first round of playoffs you are seated #1 and lose 125-120 test the 4th seated team wins 90-85 the same week. You are saying #4 seed team scoring 90 is more deserving of win than #1 seed scoring 120? Who had better week? but your team wasn't better if you lose the weekly matchup yes, i am saying that...ff is about winning your weekly matchups, not worrying about the total points you scored or the points some other random opponent scored...the only points i care about are the ones i need to beat my opponent every week, i never look at my overall points for or points against my buddy and i have discussed maybe playing a season based on pts for instead of weekly matchups, i personally don't see the fun in that, but whatever Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murf74 461 Posted November 22, 2014 but your team wasn't better if you lose the weekly matchup yes, i am saying that...ff is about winning your weekly matchups, not worrying about the total points you scored or the points some other random opponent scored...the only points i care about are the ones i need to beat my opponent every week, i never look at my overall points for or points against my buddy and i have discussed maybe playing a season based on pts for instead of weekly matchups, i personally don't see the fun in that, but whatever Holy you can't be this thick can you? It's like trying to have an intellectual conversation with a toddler You simply don't get it. I am thinking you are quite young am I correct? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 22, 2014 Holy ###### you can't be this thick can you? It's like trying to have an intellectual conversation with a toddler i love chatting with you, but not sure what i'm missing here...i think we have a completely different view of what ff is Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
murf74 461 Posted November 22, 2014 i love chatting with you, but not sure what i'm missing here...i think we have a completely different view of what ff is I can't make it any simpler. It's ok I'm moving on. Good luck this week Oh wait good strategy. Lol 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 22, 2014 nice, same to you bro Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
posty 2,810 Posted November 22, 2014 You are all arguing semantics. There are elements of both skill and luck in FF. No there isn't... It is all luck... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
posty 2,810 Posted November 22, 2014 Personally I think ff is about 60% Skill and 40% Luck. Yes it takes skill to know who to draft, who are the great sleepers, the good value picks and to stay away from, you know those players on your DND list like Darren McFadden. During the draft a few unexpected players can fall to you and it takes skill, smarts and doing your homework to execute the right draft pick. Also each week it takes skill to start the right players that have the best chance to outperform your opponents player at that position. It also takes skill to pay close attention to the waiver wire and grab the next big player first. Of course there is a small amount of luck in everything you do. But being prepared and doing research can minimize the luck factor. \ That isn't skill, that is being prepared... Being prepared is NOT the same as skill... Skill is not doing research on players... Carpentry is a skill... Being a mechanic is a skill... Reading up on football players and such is not skill... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vash1012 19 Posted November 22, 2014 yes, i am saying that...ff is about winning your weekly matchups, not worrying about the total points you scored or the points some other random opponent scored...the only points i care about are the ones i need to beat my opponent every week, i never look at my overall points for or points against You might have a point if there was anything at all you would do differently week to week depending upon your opponent. You might set your "safer" line up one week against a bad team and set a boom or bust line up one week vs a high scoring team, but that isn't guaranteed to make you do any better. You lose or win in FF based entirely on the decisions and actions of people you have no control over. Its luck. Just like in black jack. There is a skill to maximizing your chance of winning, but you are talking about a 5-10% increase in chance. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Law 251 Posted November 23, 2014 Holy this is ridiculous!!! Riddle me this FFers.... Did YOU draft YOUR team? Did YOU drop and add players throughout the season? If YOU did, then whether YOU win or lose is based largely (no, not entirely) on YOU and your SKILL in picking players! That is NOT luck!! :wall: :wall: Luck is picking lottery numbers. There is no distinction between numbers and their ability to come in (perform) for you or not. Skill is picking players more likely to perform (score) for you, thereby increasing your chance (luck if you must) to win. The more skill YOU have in picking players, in drafting, and in drop/add, the more likely you win. If you don't have this skill, then you're right, FF is all luck...for YOU! But, we'll do this again soon with the same moronic comments about all luck and no skill. I'll pray for our country. We are in trouble. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
posty 2,810 Posted November 23, 2014 @ Law still thinking that there is skill in this... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Law 251 Posted November 23, 2014 @ Law still thinking that there is skill in this... Your "luck" makes you a loser. Congrats. Winners win. Losers cry bad luck. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
southcarolina 166 Posted November 23, 2014 Your "luck" makes you a loser. Congrats. Winners win. Losers cry bad luck. Youre wasting your time. Besides us sharks need the guppies. Else we'd starve to death. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
posty 2,810 Posted November 23, 2014 Your "luck" makes you a loser. Congrats. Winners win. Losers cry bad luck. I won the Geek Homers fantasy baseball title this year... I have won 10 fantasy football titles in 20 years in my local league Trust me, it is all luck... There isn't skill... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Forty Niner Homer 3 Posted November 23, 2014 Actually this thread was originally sarcasm to that guys posting blah blah about how great his dynasty team was Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Law 251 Posted November 23, 2014 I feel sorry for people who have no control over situations in their lives, that they must rely on the "luck" of rabbit's feet, clovers, their lucky penny, whatever. The saddest part is that they DO have control, but they are too blind and/or ignorant to know better. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 23, 2014 I feel sorry for people who have no control over situations in their lives, that they must rely on the "luck" of rabbit's feet, clovers, their lucky penny, whatever. The saddest part is that they DO have control, but they are too blind and/or ignorant to know better. I can't believe how lucky you were to type all those letters in correct order like that Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Law 251 Posted November 23, 2014 I can't believe how lucky you were to type all those letters in correct order like that I rolled the dice. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shorepatrol 1,871 Posted November 23, 2014 FF is lucky "Forsite" ( I might have just spelled a mineral, not sure and don't care) 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Giants Fan 85 Posted November 23, 2014 Someone said earlier, it's like poker. I agree there are some elements to poker in this game. It's a strategy game with chance involved. Sometimes, people are going to get lucky. For instance, last night, I knew I could felt this guy, who was slow playing A7 on an AA5 flop. I had a pocket pair. Fours. Now, there's all kinds of calculations, that if you understand I didn't need to make, but one called "implied odds", which is pretty much, if I hit the 4 on the turn or the river, can I get his whole stack? And I determined yes, I could. His bet was too small on the flop to get me off my pocket pair. And when the 4 came on the turn, I hit my full house and was a 94% favorite to win the hand, but the river was a 7. Since I couldn't put him on A7, I raised him when he bet 35 on the river to 80. He shoved and turned over A7 and I said, "I fold." and tossed in my fours face up. I would never make that mistake, prolly was only another $25, but that adds up. I would have called, but he showed his hand early. Now, there was both some luck and some skill involved in that story. Here's my current FF situation: Regular season is over. 3 teams I have managed in the FFPC. One team, in a weird seeding rule, although tied for 2nd, did not put up enough season points to beat out another team with a worse record. 8-3 would have gotten us in, but a bad showing from Julius Thomas among others last week, and a loss, and that team might be the winner in the toilet bowl. Another team was just killed by injuries all year. All three teams had injury or suspension issues, but everything went wrong for this team. Went 3-8. So that all pretty much even, my third team went 9-2. Best record, most points. However two of the guys that got me there, Martavis Bryant and Leveon Bell are on a bye, injured Ball and Hillman, also holding Randle and Damien Williams in an emergency situation. There was two guys on my waiver wire that my opponent did not bid on, Dan Herron and Latavius Murray. Since I knew the Bradshaw owner would go after Herron, my opponent was the only one to stop me from picking up Murray wednesday night, and plugging him in for the Thursday night game. There's no reason to save free agent money. It's use it or lose it and win and you are in for the league championship game (after that it's multi-league) and he could have easily stopped me from picking up Murray. AND he flexed Rivera. I was hoping it would be close, Latavius puts up as much as Rivera, and he put up 10 times as much, on 4 carries. And I heard he can catch, and this is a PPR league. I was bumed about the whole Denver RB thing, and by being persistant, and trying to find guys off the wire each week. I worked harder than the next guy, and it paid off. There is luck and skill. If you aren't working on the skill part, you will be at a disadvantage. End of story. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Giants Fan 85 Posted November 23, 2014 I was also kicking myself for waiving Jonas Gray just to block my opponent from picking up Robert Woods a couple weeks ago, but if that's what led to me owning Latavius Murray ... Skill and luck. Good to have both. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Quan 1 Posted November 23, 2014 The very definition of luck is--- success or failure brought by chance rather than through one's own actions. The fantasy football season begins with a random draft order that you have no control over and continues with the schedule being randomly generated. You don't get to choose when you want to play the guy who has half his team on a bye a certain week. Also, your actions are not affecting your opponents starting QB and RB going down in the first quarter helping your team for a potentially easy win, that is not skill. BUT I do believe skill or hard work does play a factor. Researching players, waiver pick ups, choosing your optimal starting line up each week, etc. goes a long way in helping your team and putting yourself in the best position to win each week but that only goes so far. (See Giants Fan poker example) . Sometimes things out of your control happen, injuries to key players mid game, running into an opponents player who DRASTICALLY out performs his projected points ( Charles last year week 15), etc. Can't put it in a percentage as some people are doing but I think it's a good mix of luck and skill. I think making the playoffs consistently puts more emphasis on skill but to win a championship, a lot of things have to go your way. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Beyond Chaos 75 Posted November 23, 2014 I wouldn't even compare fantasy football to poker, because as Murf pointed out earlier: in fantasy football you have virtually no ability to hinder your opponent (aside from picking everyone up off the waiver wire when your opponent needs someone for their bye week, etc... that must be part of the skill set everyone on here is referring to) but in poker you can influence your opponent through your betting potentially forcing them off of hands early, stringing them along to maximize your return, or simply folding to cut losses. I think some people on here are confusing their winning with some overwhelming amount of skill to make up for their lack of skill in other areas of their life. Also, consistently outrunning a toddler or outspelling an elementary school kid doesn't make you highly skilled at either running or spelling. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IMMensaMind 462 Posted November 23, 2014 I think how you do in your draft is about 65% luck and 35% skill. I think what you do with your team after the draft is something like 70% skill and 30% luck. And how skillful you are manipulating your roster dictates your odds of running into some luck. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 23, 2014 i'd compare ff to trying to pick up women: 100% luck, 0% skill unless you're that dude from thor Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IMMensaMind 462 Posted November 23, 2014 i'd compare ff to trying to pick up women: 100% luck, 0% skill unless you're that dude from thor I think you just lost the argument, because the same guys who think that FF is way more luck than skill are the exact same guys who think that picking up girls is way more luck than skill. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flyfreak 84 Posted November 23, 2014 hahahahaha, indeed 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JtmoneyJag 25 Posted November 23, 2014 Doing your homework and being prepared isn't skill, it is just being prepared... And that isn't luck either. Call it whatever you want, but there is more to fantasy football then luck. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JtmoneyJag 25 Posted November 23, 2014 But preparation does not help when your guy gets hurt in first quarter or your wr gets held every time he is open for a TD 25% preparation / skill the rest we just sit and cross our fingers all game and of course hope our opponent doesn't have the game of his year. I think it is pointless to put a percentage on it. If you put more effort in fantasy football than your opponent, overtime you should have better results. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JtmoneyJag 25 Posted November 23, 2014 No there isn't... It is all luck... Incorrect. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JtmoneyJag 25 Posted November 23, 2014 I won the Geek Homers fantasy baseball title this year... I have won 10 fantasy football titles in 20 years in my local league Trust me, it is all luck... There isn't skill... Again, incorrect. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
southcarolina 166 Posted November 23, 2014 someone with some cash to burn should join a few of those fanduel leagues and pick their team at random and see how they do. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
IMMensaMind 462 Posted November 23, 2014 Again, incorrect. Facetious. You don't haz it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Connorsdad 38 Posted November 23, 2014 That isn't skill, that is being prepared... Being prepared is NOT the same as skill... Skill is not doing research on players... Carpentry is a skill... Being a mechanic is a skill... Reading up on football players and such is not skill... In the end there isn't a correct answer. Those people that say ff is all luck and no skill aren't going to change their opinion and those that think the opposite are as equally as stubborn. I wouldn't compare carpentry to drafting a ff team. Lol But I do think decision making is a skill. That people can improve and get better at each year. Sure luck plays a factor in ff. Anything you have no control over a certain amount of chance and yes luck is involved. Being placed in the draft order and your weekly schedule are both examples of chance and luck. But drafting the player that has more potential for a number of reasons takes decision making. And starting the better player that you think will do the best is decision making and a skill that some people are better at. I realize flipping a coin to pick those skill related decisions is an option. But I'm smart enough to use my brain to decide as I'm sure most of you guys are too. I hope all you fellas win today !! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vash1012 19 Posted November 23, 2014 Delusional. The lot of you. The amount of effect you have on the way the players play is 0. Absolutely 0. You can't control when a coach pulls a RB out on the 1 yard line and lets the full back score. You can't control if the QB throws to your wide open receiver in the endzone or not. You can't control if a throw from your QB gets tipped by his receiver into the hands of a safety. As much as you think you know about the game of football, there are still going to be as many times as not that the player you thought would do well will end up in a situation that prevents him from doing so despite alllllll the pre-game indications it was going to be a big day for him. Your RB is going against the worst rushing defense in the NFL. Oh snap, his QB throws 2 picks for TDs in the first 2 drives and the opposing offense scores on their first 2. Your RB's team abandons the running game after the first half. What skill is it you have that prevents that problem? What skill is it you have that "knows" when your player is going to get injured the first play of the game? What skill is it you have that you can predict when a 5th string WR is going to get 3 td's instead of the WR1 that you started? There are smart ways to play fantasy football (not drafting too many "unknowns", getting a good mix of upside and stability, knowing when to drop an underperformer and when to hang on, having a good sense of when to grab a guy off waivers after a blow up week and when not to) and dumb ways to play fantasy football (drafting people just because you like the team they are on, rage dropping players week 1, drafting 3 kickers etc). These are not "skills". This is basic knowledge, especially in the day and age where you can find rankings and cheat sheets all over the place. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
