**Round Nine/Ten Draft Commentary**

[Fumbleweed 426]

Rollin, rollin', rollin'...........

[Da Bomb 0]

I have a list of players for Lou's 9.4 pick. If we don't get to it until 1 or 1:30, I will be out for a couple hours. Can someone give me an email I can send the picks to if we get to that point?

[Da Bomb 0]

Lamont Jordan is the other play I strongly considered with Lou's 8.9 pick. He was his second RB choice after Dunn at the 7.4 pick so he was almost taken already there, and I am surprised to see him go so late. Not sure at all of his injury / starting situation, but I liked KJ's situation and upside better. Still very good value at this point it seems.

[Fumbleweed 426]

Have we ever gotten to the ninth round before getting the first pick from an NFL team? Wow. Just how bad are the Raiders?

 

First Raider in the 9th..........

 

Bomb, you can e-mail me Lou's pick if you need to.....hollisk@poncacity.k12.ok.us

[Dan 59]

Lamont Jordan is the other play I strongly considered with Lou's 8.9 pick. He was his second RB choice after Dunn at the 7.4 pick so he was almost taken already there, and I am surprised to see him go so late. Not sure at all of his injury / starting situation, but I liked KJ's situation and upside better. Still very good value at this point it seems.

 

Incidentally, Jordan is the other RB that I considered at 8.06. I went with upside as opposed to the sure thing. Maybe Jackson makes it back around, but seeing what I'm seeing, I'm not so sure.

[Da Bomb 0]

Have we ever gotten to the ninth round before getting the first pick from an NFL team? Wow. Just how bad are the Raiders?

 

First Raider in the 9th..........

 

Bomb, you can e-mail me Lou's pick if you need to.....hollisk@poncacity.k12.ok.us

 

Wow I didn't even think of that. Oof, that is awful.

 

I'll email you the list if the pick isn't to me by about 1:15 fumble. Thanks.

 

Incidentally, Jordan is the other RB that I considered at 8.06. I went with upside as opposed to the sure thing. Maybe Jackson makes it back around, but seeing what I'm seeing, I'm not so sure.

 

Yeah I'm not so sure either, it would have been pretty close. I do think it's interesting that Jordan is the "sure thing" though. He hardly seems sure to me with all his injuries, with both Rhodes and Bush there, and with his 3.8 YPC and a cloud of dust the last two years. LOL.

[JScott 20]

Lamont Jordan is the other play I strongly considered with Lou's 8.9 pick. He was his second RB choice after Dunn at the 7.4 pick so he was almost taken already there, and I am surprised to see him go so late. Not sure at all of his injury / starting situation, but I liked KJ's situation and upside better. Still very good value at this point it seems.

As this point Jordon is still the starter, for a craptastic OAK team, but still a starter. Given OAK's love of RBBC and the addition of Rhodes/Bush, Jordon may only be a 1st/2nd down back, but as my RB#4 I think it's still great value this late.

 

Nice pick of Stallworth there ICE. If you had taken Jordan at 8.11, I would have gone Witten/Stallworth

[The Soloist 0]

Have we ever gotten to the ninth round before getting the first pick from an NFL team? Wow. Just how bad are the Raiders?

 

First Raider in the 9th..........

 

 

[Da Bomb 0]

email list for lou sent to fumble. thx. i'll be back around 3:30, dont figure we'll get back to lou by then but will pick asap then if we do.

[Fumbleweed 426]

I knew that would bring out the Soloist!!

 

JScott....I really question what you did on the corner there for reasons I'll mention later on. I'll be curious to see what your take is. That's all I can say for now.

 

Love the Stallworth pick...thought hard about taking him at 8.02. I think Moss is more washed up than most people realize which gives him a real opportunity there.

[Da Bomb 0]

JScott....I really question what you did on the corner there for reasons I'll mention later on. I'll be curious to see what your take is. That's all I can say for now.

 

I know why! Same reason you will really question Lou's turn too. Tehe.

 

Also re: Stallworth. He was on Lou's top 3 WR available list. I think he is a decent WR3 option for this year. I agree with you on Moss being mostly washed up, but either way I don't see Stallworth being a huge threat. Brady just doesn't produce good fantasy WRs, and now that they have depth there, there just won't be enough to go around to keep folks valuable.

[JScott 20]

JScott....I really question what you did on the corner there for reasons I'll mention later on. I'll be curious to see what your take is. That's all I can say for now.

I thought the Witten pick was pretty myself. Needed a TE, and as mentioned in the 7/8 commentary thread he was the last available in that tier.

 

As for Jordan, again nothing spectacular but I've seen him go a round or two higher so I think it's good value.

 

You can email me if you want. I'm curious as to what the "question" is (jkatz@mfs.com)

[Fumbleweed 426]

I thought the Witten pick was pretty myself. Needed a TE, and as mentioned in the 7/8 commentary thread he was the last available in that tier.

 

As for Jordan, again nothing spectacular but I've seen him go a round or two higher so I think it's good value.

 

You can email me if you want. I'm curious as to what the "question" is (jkatz@mfs.com)

 

I'll share it with you later on. I won't forget....no big deal. Just have a take on something.

 

Forget that....I can share it with you right now.

 

You should have taken Michael Turner on that corner. You gotta take Turner there. There are no other handcuffs out there more important than that one because no backup is as good as Turner and can excel like he does. You basically insure yourself for anything that happens to Tomlinson by adding Turner to the mix.

 

I just thought it was a significant tactical error. I love your team overall, though, and I do think you got fine value on Jordan. It's been a great draft for you. It's just something to think about.

[remote controller 133]

I thought the Witten pick was pretty myself. Needed a TE, and as mentioned in the 7/8 commentary thread he was the last available in that tier.

 

As for Jordan, again nothing spectacular but I've seen him go a round or two higher so I think it's good value.

 

You can email me if you want. I'm curious as to what the "question" is (jkatz@mfs.com)

Don't worry J.............it just means he missed out on Crumpler, Cooley, and Witten too, and has a line of crap made up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is just a joke Fumble I'm funnin'

[JScott 20]

I'll share it with you later on. I won't forget....no big deal. Just have a take on something.

 

Forget that....I can share it with you right now.

 

You should have taken Michael Turner on that corner. You gotta take Turner there. There are no other handcuffs out there more important than that one because no backup is as good as Turner and can excel like he does. You basically insure yourself for anything that happens to Tomlinson by adding Turner to the mix.

 

I just thought it was a significant tactical error. I love your team overall, though, and I do think you got fine value on Jordan. It's been a great draft for you. It's just something to think about.

Noted, but I'm one of those ff'ers that really does not like to hand-cuff early. Maybe Turner should have been an exception but my take is (and I know this was hashed out a thousand times with Holmes/LJ, and there are valid points on both sides of the fence) you're spending two valuable draft picks on one player essentially. Yes, I understand about insuring your stud, and yes maybe a 9th isn't too much to spend, but I remember when LJ was going in the 4th/5th, so Holmes owners were having to spend a 1st and 4th on essentially 1 KC RB. That didn't make any sense to me. If you had to spend a 4th to insure your #1 pick, then IMO he wasn't worth the #1 pick. Now back to my pick, as I said, maybe a 9th isn't too much to give up for insuring LT2 but if he stays healthy, then I've not only wasted that pick, but every subsequent pick after that is devalued by 1 round on average (i.e. I take Turner instead of Witten and wait til the 10th for a TE, I lose the value from Witten to the next best available TE, and so on for the rest of my picks). JMHO but it's too much to give up at this point for me. I know others see it differently.

[The Soloist 0]

I'll share it with you later on. I won't forget....no big deal. Just have a take on something.

 

Forget that....I can share it with you right now.

 

You should have taken Michael Turner on that corner. You gotta take Turner there. There are no other handcuffs out there more important than that one because no backup is as good as Turner and can excel like he does. You basically insure yourself for anything that happens to Tomlinson by adding Turner to the mix.

 

I just thought it was a significant tactical error. I love your team overall, though, and I do think you got fine value on Jordan. It's been a great draft for you. It's just something to think about.

 

I don't know about that Turner comment being the best backup. Betts certainly proved he's no slouch

[Fumbleweed 426]

Turner would have been the 41st RB taken....that's not too early to look for him as Clash demonstrated by taking him two picks later.

 

I couldn't disagree with you more about Turner, but your point about Witten makes sense. I would have taken him instead of Jordan, I guess.

 

I don't know about that Turner comment being the best backup. Betts certainly proved he's no slouch

 

Betts is another very good handcuff for the Portis owner to get....yes. Good point.

[Vikings4ever 496]

Turner would have been the 41st RB taken....that's not too early to look for him as Clash demonstrated by taking him two picks later.

 

I couldn't disagree with you more about Turner, but your point about Witten makes sense. I would have taken him instead of Jordan, I guess.

Agreed. Barring 2 major values falling, I don't think LT2 owners can afford to not take Turner at the 8/9 turn.

[gratefulted 14]

I don't know about that Turner comment being the best backup. Betts certainly proved he's no slouch

I was REALLY hoping he'd make it to me at the turn

[RLLD 3,455]

I was hoping Turner would last to 9.06, i guess he is more of an 8th rounder after all.

 

Regardless, i was pleased to take another RB late that has a truly legitimate chance to start.

[Fumbleweed 426]

I was hoping Turner would last to 9.06, i guess he is more of an 8th rounder after all.

 

Regardless, i was pleased to take another RB late that has a truly legitimate chance to start.

 

Very solid pick with Morency there!

[JScott 20]

Turner would have been the 41st RB taken....that's not too early to look for him as Clash demonstrated by taking him two picks later.

 

I couldn't disagree with you more about Turner, but your point about Witten makes sense. I would have taken him instead of Jordan, I guess.

Betts is another very good handcuff for the Portis owner to get....yes. Good point.

 

I respect your opinion, but bottom line it's all about drafting players that potentially better your starting lineup. Let me ask you this. When's the last time anyone started Turner over LT2? My guess is never. So why use a 9th round pick on a player with VERY little chance of seeing your starting lineup at all? Even Jordan can be used as a bye week fill in for LT2, can't say the same for Turner. But V4E brings up a good point about Betts. He's also shown to be a very good NFL backup (like Turner) but at least there's an injury history with Portis. There's none with LT2. At this point, LT2 is as solid as they come. Could he get hurt? Sure. But until he shows a chink in the armour, Turner's not worth it at this point IMO.

 

Another way I look at it is this, with Jordan there's a chance (small, but at least a chance) he could out perform my other 2 RBs Benson and Taylor and end up pairing with LT2 in my starting lineup. With Turner instead of Jordon, there's realistically no chance that happens. So with Jordan I've increased my starting lineup potential along side LT2.

[Fumbleweed 426]

What was the deal on FantasyKing's pick? He's up.........

[Vikings4ever 496]

I'm surprised Favre fell this far. I like him above Cutler, and would be willing to take him as a number 1 if I could load up on RBs and WRs early in the draft.

[JScott 20]

What was the deal on FantasyKing's pick? He's up.........

I just emailed him with all the picks since his 8th. Should get a reply soon, then I'll post it.

[RLLD 3,455]

I'm surprised Favre fell this far. I like him above Cutler, and would be willing to take him as a number 1 if I could load up on RBs and WRs early in the draft.

 

You should not be too surprised, he went at about the right spot, perhaps a round earlier would not have been out of bounds. Consider this one a sanity check for you list

[remote controller 133]

I am now on my phone for a few hours. CALL! 806-202-0265

 

There is a few bad reception spots, but it shouldn't hold us up.

[RLLD 3,455]

I am now on my phone for a few hours. CALL! 806-202-0265

 

There is a few bad reception spots, but it shouldn't hold us up.

 

This was a mistake...... .......

[Fumbleweed 426]

I have an appointment from 3-4. Sent a list to Vikings4Ever........

[JScott 20]

I am now on my phone for a few hours. CALL! 806-202-0265

 

There is a few bad reception spots, but it shouldn't hold us up.

 

Wait 'til the boys in the Sanctuary get a load of this

 

 

 

 

[JScott 20]

remote wanted me to also remind Ray that he's an @ss for taking Foster

[Da Bomb 0]

I respect your opinion, but bottom line it's all about drafting players that potentially better your starting lineup. Let me ask you this. When's the last time anyone started Turner over LT2? My guess is never. So why use a 9th round pick on a player with VERY little chance of seeing your starting lineup at all? Even Jordan can be used as a bye week fill in for LT2, can't say the same for Turner. But V4E brings up a good point about Betts. He's also shown to be a very good NFL backup (like Turner) but at least there's an injury history with Portis. There's none with LT2. At this point, LT2 is as solid as they come. Could he get hurt? Sure. But until he shows a chink in the armour, Turner's not worth it at this point IMO.

 

Another way I look at it is this, with Jordan there's a chance (small, but at least a chance) he could out perform my other 2 RBs Benson and Taylor and end up pairing with LT2 in my starting lineup. With Turner instead of Jordon, there's realistically no chance that happens. So with Jordan I've increased my starting lineup potential along side LT2.

 

As soon as I realized that I had forgotten about Turner, I knew this was the point Fumble was making. I understand everything you say here about Jordan with the upside and the chance of scoring more than your other RBs, etc. I normally don't like to handcuff either.

 

BUT let me give you the reason for taking Turner here, something I also think you definitely should have done. Yes it burns two picks on one player... but thats only if by "burning" you mean "absolutely securing a top 10 RB starting in your lineup all season long." No, we've not seen a chink in LT2's armor, but that was true of Alexander last season and many other RBs. Here's the chink -- LT2 had the most carries last season since his sophomore year, and he also had a season that lasted late into January for I believe his first time. He is a guy that had 400+ touches last year, and if you haven't seen NAn's work and article on this, that is a very huge warning flag against RBs. I wouldn't touch LJ with a ten foot pole this year, for instance. I do think LT2 is special and that his touches aren't as bad as LJ's since he didn't take as much of a beating IMO. But I don't think it's safe to just assume that LT2 stays healthy. Right now, if he ever goes down, your team is just sunk immediately unless Jordan somehow explodes again. But if you have Turner and LT2 goes down, you immediately have a top 10 RB, at worst. It's widely agreed that Turner is probably one of the top 5 backups in football at worst, plus that's a very good OL and a Norv Turner system, so he would produce immediately.

 

So the question is, would you rather get a RB who will probably rank in the 20s-30s with upside to be a solid RB2... or would you rather secure your investment and lock down having basically a top 5 RB no matter what all season? In my opinion, you have to make the second choice in this scenario. This might actually be the only handcuff in the entire league I'd go for too. It's different with LJ because even though in my head I *know* he will miss time, there's no great OL and no one standout back behind him. Really, name a single other backup in the league who becomes an immediate lockdown top 10 player at his position if given a chance due to injury? I can't think of one.

 

And really, I don't see Turner lasting to 8.12 normally which may make it all a moot point on draft day. I think LT2 owners will either have to take him at the top of the 7th or else get real lucky and hope their league mates are smart enough to block the move.

 

PS. Turner had aslmost 600 yards last season. Jordan as a starter only had 500. Both 2 TDs as well. So with vows to get Turner on the field more this year, he might end up outproducing Jordan even IF lt2 stays healthy.

[Da Bomb 0]

liked the porter and morency picks this round. morency still looks like the starter to me in a valuable system, so im surprised to see a starter there mid 9th. i really like porter to step up with close to 1000 yards and a good handful of TDs, a great late WR3 imo.

[Vikings4ever 496]

I have an appointment from 3-4. Sent a list to Vikings4Ever........

Sorry, had to step out for an hour. Pick made.

[Da Bomb 0]

i like santonio holmes a lot this year. very solid WR3 if you need to wait and get him late, good potential to possibly become a solid WR2.

[JScott 20]

As soon as I realized that I had forgotten about Turner, I knew this was the point Fumble was making. I understand everything you say here about Jordan with the upside and the chance of scoring more than your other RBs, etc. I normally don't like to handcuff either.

 

BUT let me give you the reason for taking Turner here, something I also think you definitely should have done. Yes it burns two picks on one player... but thats only if by "burning" you mean "absolutely securing a top 10 RB starting in your lineup all season long." No, we've not seen a chink in LT2's armor, but that was true of Alexander last season and many other RBs. Here's the chink -- LT2 had the most carries last season since his sophomore year, and he also had a season that lasted late into January for I believe his first time. He is a guy that had 400+ touches last year, and if you haven't seen NAn's work and article on this, that is a very huge warning flag against RBs. I wouldn't touch LJ with a ten foot pole this year, for instance. I do think LT2 is special and that his touches aren't as bad as LJ's since he didn't take as much of a beating IMO. But I don't think it's safe to just assume that LT2 stays healthy. Right now, if he ever goes down, your team is just sunk immediately unless Jordan somehow explodes again. But if you have Turner and LT2 goes down, you immediately have a top 10 RB, at worst. It's widely agreed that Turner is probably one of the top 5 backups in football at worst, plus that's a very good OL and a Norv Turner system, so he would produce immediately.

 

So the question is, would you rather get a RB who will probably rank in the 20s-30s with upside to be a solid RB2... or would you rather secure your investment and lock down having basically a top 5 RB no matter what all season? In my opinion, you have to make the second choice in this scenario. This might actually be the only handcuff in the entire league I'd go for too. It's different with LJ because even though in my head I *know* he will miss time, there's no great OL and no one standout back behind him. Really, name a single other backup in the league who becomes an immediate lockdown top 10 player at his position if given a chance due to injury? I can't think of one.

 

And really, I don't see Turner lasting to 8.12 normally which may make it all a moot point on draft day. I think LT2 owners will either have to take him at the top of the 7th or else get real lucky and hope their league mates are smart enough to block the move.

 

PS. Turner had aslmost 600 yards last season. Jordan as a starter only had 500. Both 2 TDs as well. So with vows to get Turner on the field more this year, he might end up outproducing Jordan even IF lt2 stays healthy.

 

I understand everything you've said here Bomb, but one thing you forgot in your analysis is the 1 round devaluation of every pick following the Turner pick. Not only are you using two picks to secure a top 10 back, but the rest of your picks are essentially bumped back one round in value. Now I'll admit, maybe the 8/9 turn crosses that line to where it's worth it. Only picks 10 - 15 get devalued, and this late there's not a lot of significant diffenence from round to round. But what about 6/7 which is where I expect Turner to be taken by LT2 owners when we get closer to the season. At that point you won't even have your key starting roster spots filled out. Would you sacrifice value at your WR2, TE1, WR3 or QB1 to secure LT2 backup? And if Turner starts going at the 6/7 turn in later mocks, I wouldn't be surprised at all if LT2 owners will have to grab him at 4/5 in real drafts. It's exactly like Holmes/LJ from a few years ago.

 

In a nutshell, it can be looked at it this way. There are two "potentials" you need to decide on. The first is the potential that the hand-cuff will replace the NFL starter (i.e. get in your starting line-up). And the second is what potential performance will that hand-cuff bring to the table. And they have to be thought of in that order. Turner has huge performance potential, but IMO a very small potential of stepping in for LT2 (only if he gets hurt). So if LT2 doesn't get hurt, Turner doesn't get the nod, he doesn't see your starting line-up so his performance potential is completely nutrilized in this case.

 

For all you statistics geeks out there, let's put it another way. Say you have 2 decks of cards and you're going to pull one card from each. And the object is to pull an Ace from deck 2 after you pull an Ace from deck 1. Well you have a 7.5% (4/52) chance for each Ace, and a 0.6% (4/52 * 4/52) that an Ace is pulled from deck 1 and then deck 2. But if you take 3 Aces from deck 1 and switch them with 3 non-aces from deck 2 you're odds go down to 0.25% (1/52 * 7/52) by more than half... This is how I see Turner v. Jordan, deck 1 is the first potential (getting into the line-up) and deck 2 is the second potential (performance). Turner's scenario is the 1/52 * 7/52 case; more performance potential, but less starting lineup potential. Jordan on the other hand is the 4/52 * 4/52 case; more starting lineup potential, but less performance potential. But overall the 4/52 * 4/52 scenario has more total potential, hence why I would argue for Jordan. Now of course I'm just estimating numbers here, there's no real accurate way to measure this but I hope I explained it well enough so you could see my view better ... ok, could I get any more :geek: than this.

[Vikings4ever 496]

Hoping Jones would fall back to me.

[Fumbleweed 426]

Ted, I'm not happy with you.

[JScott 20]

Just called in the latest picks to Remote, he's calling back in about 10 minutes with his pick.

[RLLD 3,455]

remote wanted me to also remind Ray that he's an @ss for taking Foster

 

 

There is a lot of love in the mock today