Demaryius Thomas vs. Eric Decker

[waxg 3]

I have Peyton Manning locked in as a keeper this year, and another guy has Decker. I am looking long and hard at Demaryius Thomas, who I drafted his rookie year for $1 and unfortunately cut him before he could have paid off. Now he will be available on draft day (auction style) and I am trying to decide how much is too much to spend. Who do you think will end up being the bigger fantasy option? Do you think both guys could crack the top 15 WRs?

 

Seemd like Demaryius has the tools but not the work ethic. Decker seems to be cut in the Stokely mold... a hard worker, which is what Peyton likes.

 

Would appreciate any thoughts on this. I would love to nab Thomas for around $10 ($200 budget), but I think he may sell for closer to $20 which I think is too much. What do you think about either guy.

[gcmmidwest 149]

one..!!! for Thomas & if he's still there in round 4 i just might scoop him up

depending on whats left for rb's

[IGotWorms 4,058]

I have Peyton Manning locked in as a keeper this year, and another guy has Decker. I am looking long and hard at Demaryius Thomas, who I drafted his rookie year for $1 and unfortunately cut him before he could have paid off. Now he will be available on draft day (auction style) and I am trying to decide how much is too much to spend. Who do you think will end up being the bigger fantasy option? Do you think both guys could crack the top 15 WRs?

 

Seemd like Demaryius has the tools but not the work ethic. Decker seems to be cut in the Stokely mold... a hard worker, which is what Peyton likes.

 

Would appreciate any thoughts on this. I would love to nab Thomas for around $10 ($200 budget), but I think he may sell for closer to $20 which I think is too much. What do you think about either guy.

 

I like Decker more (especially in PPR). I think Thomas will have some huge games, but Decker will be more consistent and end up with more targets. Thomas does have a lot of potential but he has yet to put it all together. A guy like Manning will rely on the solid, dependable play of Decker over the boom or bust play of Thomas.

[rcficker 0]

I'm expecting Decker to play the Reggie Wayne role with precise routes, good hands, and a good rapport with Manning. Expect Peyton to use TE Tamme and slot receive Stokley like he did in Indy as he's familiar with them.

 

D. Thomas is for sure the biggest wild card. He's a different type of receiver than Peyton has had before. Speed and size, but not a great route runner. I expect timing to be off between them, but Thomas's athleticism enough of an upside for Peyton to throw a few aggressive passes his way. I'm sure Peyton would prefer the Marvin Harrison type in that position, but Peyton will adjust to his receiver's abilities.

 

My biggest question mark is if Peyton will stay in the pocket long enough with pass rushers around to let Thomas get deep. If not, this limits Thomas' potential.

 

A conservative view of Denver's WRs could look like this:

 

Decker: 80-1100-8

Thomas: 65-900-7

Stokley: 40-400-5

Tamme: 40-350-4

Backs/Others: 50-500-5

 

Peyton throws for 3250-29, which is pretty conservative based on his historical numbers. If he goes for 4000-35, then it's most likely going to be because D. Thomas overperforms expectations.

[waxg 3]

I'm expecting Decker to play the Reggie Wayne role with precise routes, good hands, and a good rapport with Manning. Expect Peyton to use TE Tamme and slot receive Stokley like he did in Indy as he's familiar with them.

 

D. Thomas is for sure the biggest wild card. He's a different type of receiver than Peyton has had before. Speed and size, but not a great route runner. I expect timing to be off between them, but Thomas's athleticism enough of an upside for Peyton to throw a few aggressive passes his way. I'm sure Peyton would prefer the Marvin Harrison type in that position, but Peyton will adjust to his receiver's abilities.

 

My biggest question mark is if Peyton will stay in the pocket long enough with pass rushers around to let Thomas get deep. If not, this limits Thomas' potential.

 

A conservative view of Denver's WRs could look like this:

 

Decker: 80-1100-8

Thomas: 65-900-7

Stokley: 40-400-5

Tamme: 40-350-4

Backs/Others: 50-500-5

 

Peyton throws for 3250-29, which is pretty conservative based on his historical numbers. If he goes for 4000-35, then it's most likely going to be because D. Thomas overperforms expectations.

 

 

Great analysis. I think that's probably about right, although I would bump up Tamme's numbers and Stokely's down a bit. I can't see Stokely getting that many TDS and I think Tamme will get more yards.

On Decker and Thomas you are probably right.

 

I think Thomas will be boom or bust.... his fantasy scoring will look like this:

2 - 37 - 7 - 8 - 19 - 3 - 4 - 4 - 6 - 41 - 22 - 2 - 13.

Hard to predict which weeks to start him I think.

 

 

 

So that would put Thomas's auction value somewhere in the $12-$15 range and Decker's in the $25-$29 range, right?

[Cuse9 129]

Manning will capitalize the talent. He'll make the better talent, the best. As long as DeMaryius and Decker put in the time, the rewards will be there. There is no question, over a sixteen game season DeMaryius will have better stats than Decker. DeMaryius is better at everything. Don't get me wrong, Decker is very good. It's like comparing Terrell Owens in his prime to Wes Welker. You would love to have either one, but you would take Owens over Welker anyday. The consistancy will be there for both. DeMaryius will not have 4-5 point games. PPR leagues I would guess DeMaryius will put up an average of 16-17 ppg, Decker should get an average of 12-13.

 

Two issues to think about.

 

Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen are excellent red zone targets! Peyton will have two phenomenal targets inside the ten. Throw in Fox is a run first coach, the TD's for Decker/DeMaryius will usually be 10+ yards. DeMaryius has the better ability to make things happen after the catch.

 

The other critical factor is Thomas' inability to stay healthy. He's a tremendous talent, but can't stay on the field!

 

When it pertains to DeMaryius/Decker I think you have to draft higher/pay higher for the better talent. In this case it's clearly Thomas. Barring injury I don't think there is a chance Decker will out perform Thomas.

[BLS 314]

Decker showed last year that's he's clearly more of the 'lunch-pail' kind of WR. The guy who's not flashy or super fast, but gets sh1t done and probably spends his fair share of time in the film room.

 

Manning already has shown an affinity for him in camp and the first game. I think Decker is the smart play here and I'm betting my season on it. He'll be my WR1 with Harvin or A. Brown as my WR2.

 

The majority of my auction money will be devoted to a stud QB, stud RB and stud TE.

 

WR's are VERY deep this year and Decker is the perfect buy-low candidate.

[Cuse9 129]

 

WR's are VERY deep this year and Decker is the perfect buy-low candidate.

What do you consider deep?

[BLS 314]

What do you consider deep?

 

I'm not here to win your approval. If you have a point, make it.

[Cuse9 129]

I'm not here to win your approval. If you have a point, make it.

Not rippin on ya by any means. I just don't think WR's are that deep, so I was wondering why you thought they were deep. I think this year provides a boatload of potential and plenty of WR's with upside, but I think it's a short list of solid WR's.

 

I see it like this: 16 guys you can bank on....

No brainer, solid point producers: Calvin, Fitz, Jennings, Andre, Green, Roddy, Julio, Nicks, Welker, Marshall, Cruz,

Nelson, S. Smith, Dez, Harvin, Colston

 

All these guys have questions...

Mike Wallace....holding out, will he come back or pull a VJax?

Miles Austin....already with injuries.

Demaryius Thomas....everything depends on Manning's health.

Jeremy Maclin....pretty solid, bit of injury risk with him and his QB

Dwayne Bowe....holding out, not learning new offense, tremendous talent though.

Vincent Jackson....Freeman was hideous last year.

Brandon Lloyd....Welker, Gronk, Hernandez...Lloyd is fourth fiddle...or is he?

Steve Johnson....dissappointed last year, should bounce back?

Antonio Brown....massive potential, especially if Wallace pulls a VJax!!

DeSean Jackson....posts huge games then disappears!?

Eric Decker....great potential, season hinges on Manning as well.

Torrey Smith....ankle sprain already, hope it's not high ankle sprain.

Reggie Wayne....is he #1 or is Collie?

Pierre Garcon....no idea how RG3 will do or if Garcon is better then Moss/Hankerson/Morgan?

Robert Meachem....couldn't produce consistantly in NO, don't trust him in SD

Kenny Britt....two bad knees, suspension looming...so much talent?!

Denarius Moore....Palmer isn't that good and DHB may be better?

Santonio Holmes....never been a Holmes fan.

Malcom Floyd....his time to shine, will he?

Anquan Boldin....keep digressing!

Darrius Heyward-Bey....time to earn his draft position!!

Sidney Rice....always hurt

Greg Little....rookie QB/RB, alot of talent, but team is a mess.

Lance Moore....too many weapons in NO for him to be consistant point producer.

Michael Crabtree....Moss, Manningham, Jenkins, Davis, Gore, James....lot of weapons in SF.

Mike Williams....poor year last year, VJax in town

 

You could make an arguement for alot of them as being solid, but they all have question marks. Brandon Lloyd. Phenomenal hands, back with McDaniels, perfect system. But will he be #1 over Welker, Gronk and Hernandez? It's just hard to bank on him. What if you take Decker as your #1 and Manning is done week one. Obviously you can say that about any receiver's QB, but Manning is coming off a serious career threatening injury, it's legit to wonder/hope he will make it through the year.

 

I think RB/WR is about the same this year. You have a handful of RB's that are safe as can be, then you have some that are coming off serious injuries or very poor years and we assume they'll bounce back. Then you have a ton that have massive potential, but nothing is for sure.

 

Like I said, not bashing you by any stretch of the imagination, it's not my style. I like to get into your head to see what you're thinking. I can always appreciate people's opinions. I don't want to win your approval, but I do like find posters that have valid reasonings/points for what they think. A good debate makes coming in here alot more fun!!

[kmbryant09 1]

 

A conservative view of Denver's WRs could look like this:

 

Decker: 80-1100-8

Thomas: 65-900-7

Stokley: 40-400-5

Tamme: 40-350-4

Backs/Others: 50-500-5

 

Peyton throws for 3250-29, which is pretty conservative based on his historical numbers. If he goes for 4000-35, then it's most likely going to be because D. Thomas overperforms expectations.

I know you said conservative, but Tamme put up 67/631/4 in 10 games with Manning back in 2010. You project him for basically half of that? Tamme will likely put up 70/800/5. Stokely probably won't catch 40/400, a lot of that will go to Andre Caldwell. And you're also forgetting Joel Dreesen, who should catch 40/400/5 - great red zone threat.

 

Manning will capitalize the talent. He'll make the better talent, the best. As long as DeMaryius and Decker put in the time, the rewards will be there. There is no question, over a sixteen game season DeMaryius will have better stats than Decker. DeMaryius is better at everything. Don't get me wrong, Decker is very good. It's like comparing Terrell Owens in his prime to Wes Welker. You would love to have either one, but you would take Owens over Welker anyday. The consistancy will be there for both. DeMaryius will not have 4-5 point games. PPR leagues I would guess DeMaryius will put up an average of 16-17 ppg, Decker should get an average of 12-13.

 

Two issues to think about.

 

Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen are excellent red zone targets! Peyton will have two phenomenal targets inside the ten. Throw in Fox is a run first coach, the TD's for Decker/DeMaryius will usually be 10+ yards. DeMaryius has the better ability to make things happen after the catch.

 

The other critical factor is Thomas' inability to stay healthy. He's a tremendous talent, but can't stay on the field!

 

When it pertains to DeMaryius/Decker I think you have to draft higher/pay higher for the better talent. In this case it's clearly Thomas. Barring injury I don't think there is a chance Decker will out perform Thomas.

Decker has been Manning's favorite target in camp, and it hasn't really been close. I do think D. Thomas is extremely talented, but Eric Decker is a MUCH better route runner - arguably the most important attribute for a Peyton Manning WR. And everyone loves Thomas' size, but people overlook that Decker is 6'3" 220. Only 10 lbs lighter than Thomas.

[montana 89]

Decker will be more consistent imo.

Thomas will be up/down.

 

PPR - Decker

Standard - Decker (but its closer than PPR)

 

Bonus points for long plays - Thomas

[Criper 24]

Tamme and Dreesen should put up 90-100 catches between them, and I think Decker is in that range too, making Thomas the 3rd option, but with a ton of upside. I also think Caldwell catches more in the slot than Stokely does, but as a 4th option. My own projections:

 

Decker 100-1339-7

Thomas 55-828-8

Tamme 64-707-5

Dreesen 32-382-3

Caldwell 27-305-2

Stokely 15-179-1

 

Peyton 4168 yds/27 td's

[kmbryant09 1]

Tamme and Dreesen should put up 90-100 catches between them, and I think Decker is in that range too, making Thomas the 3rd option, but with a ton of upside. I also think Caldwell catches more in the slot than Stokely does, but as a 4th option. My own projections:

 

Decker 100-1339-7

Thomas 55-828-8

Tamme 64-707-5

Dreesen 32-382-3

Caldwell 27-305-2

Stokely 15-179-1

 

Peyton 4168 yds/27 td's

Very close to my projections, but I have Thomas catching 62/1,000 and Dreesen catching 5 TD's. Peyton throws for 4,500 and 31 TD's.

[MicktheGreat 1]

Tamme and Dreesen should put up 90-100 catches between them, and I think Decker is in that range too, making Thomas the 3rd option, but with a ton of upside. I also think Caldwell catches more in the slot than Stokely does, but as a 4th option. My own projections:

 

Decker 100-1339-7

Thomas 55-828-8

Tamme 64-707-5

Dreesen 32-382-3

Caldwell 27-305-2

Stokely 15-179-1

 

Peyton 4168 yds/27 td's

 

I could see something like those numbers happening.

 

Personally, I'd probably give Decker 1-2 fewer TDs and give Thomas 1-2 more TDs. I'd probably also lower Tamme's yardage slightly and raise Dreesen's yardage slightly. But, overall, I think those are pretty reasonable predictions. My team's been on the wrong-end of Peyton Manning for years; so I've learned to not bet against that dude. I think he plays well and his skill-players will benefit.

 

[sirensong 111]

 

 

I see it like this: 16 guys you can bank on....

...Dez...

 

All these guys have questions...

Miles Austin....already with injuries.

 

 

both of them have tweaked hamstrings right now, and dez hasn't completed a full schedule in the NFL yet. plus the possible suspension. plus his problems assimilating the offense. plus his freelance routerunning. by any metric, austin is far more bankable than bryant.

 

what you're offering is hopeful speculation that things might change in the future, rather than analysis grounded in empirical fact.

[Cuse9 129]

both of them have tweaked hamstrings right now, and dez hasn't completed a full schedule in the NFL yet. plus the possible suspension. plus his problems assimilating the offense. plus his freelance routerunning. by any metric, austin is far more bankable than bryant.

 

what you're offering is hopeful speculation that things might change in the future, rather than analysis grounded in empirical fact.

Hence me saying "The way I see it" You kind of validated my point though, thank you.

[IGotWorms 4,058]

Not rippin on ya by any means. I just don't think WR's are that deep, so I was wondering why you thought they were deep. I think this year provides a boatload of potential and plenty of WR's with upside, but I think it's a short list of solid WR's.

 

Are you just trying to fock with BLS or something? WR is incredibly deep this year. It's an indisputable fact. It's like saying the sky is blue.

[Kent 228]

Who is in the game in single wr sets near the goal line.

 

Bronco homers?

 

I want that guy first. Don't care who it is between Decker and Thomas.

[BLS 314]

Not rippin on ya by any means. I just don't think WR's are that deep, so I was wondering why you thought they were deep. I think this year provides a boatload of potential and plenty of WR's with upside, but I think it's a short list of solid WR's.

 

I see it like this: 16 guys you can bank on....

No brainer, solid point producers: Calvin, Fitz, Jennings, Andre, Green, Roddy, Julio, Nicks, Welker, Marshall, Cruz,

Nelson, S. Smith, Dez, Harvin, Colston

 

All these guys have questions...

Mike Wallace....holding out, will he come back or pull a VJax?

Miles Austin....already with injuries.

Demaryius Thomas....everything depends on Manning's health.

Jeremy Maclin....pretty solid, bit of injury risk with him and his QB

Dwayne Bowe....holding out, not learning new offense, tremendous talent though.

Vincent Jackson....Freeman was hideous last year.

Brandon Lloyd....Welker, Gronk, Hernandez...Lloyd is fourth fiddle...or is he?

Steve Johnson....dissappointed last year, should bounce back?

Antonio Brown....massive potential, especially if Wallace pulls a VJax!!

DeSean Jackson....posts huge games then disappears!?

Eric Decker....great potential, season hinges on Manning as well.

Torrey Smith....ankle sprain already, hope it's not high ankle sprain.

Reggie Wayne....is he #1 or is Collie?

Pierre Garcon....no idea how RG3 will do or if Garcon is better then Moss/Hankerson/Morgan?

Robert Meachem....couldn't produce consistantly in NO, don't trust him in SD

Kenny Britt....two bad knees, suspension looming...so much talent?!

Denarius Moore....Palmer isn't that good and DHB may be better?

Santonio Holmes....never been a Holmes fan.

Malcom Floyd....his time to shine, will he?

Anquan Boldin....keep digressing!

Darrius Heyward-Bey....time to earn his draft position!!

Sidney Rice....always hurt

Greg Little....rookie QB/RB, alot of talent, but team is a mess.

Lance Moore....too many weapons in NO for him to be consistant point producer.

Michael Crabtree....Moss, Manningham, Jenkins, Davis, Gore, James....lot of weapons in SF.

Mike Williams....poor year last year, VJax in town

 

You could make an arguement for alot of them as being solid, but they all have question marks. Brandon Lloyd. Phenomenal hands, back with McDaniels, perfect system. But will he be #1 over Welker, Gronk and Hernandez? It's just hard to bank on him. What if you take Decker as your #1 and Manning is done week one. Obviously you can say that about any receiver's QB, but Manning is coming off a serious career threatening injury, it's legit to wonder/hope he will make it through the year.

 

I think RB/WR is about the same this year. You have a handful of RB's that are safe as can be, then you have some that are coming off serious injuries or very poor years and we assume they'll bounce back. Then you have a ton that have massive potential, but nothing is for sure.

 

Like I said, not bashing you by any stretch of the imagination, it's not my style. I like to get into your head to see what you're thinking. I can always appreciate people's opinions. I don't want to win your approval, but I do like find posters that have valid reasonings/points for what they think. A good debate makes coming in here alot more fun!!

 

 

On my phone right now so I'll reply later with a more detailed response.

[rcficker 0]

Indy's offense had a TE position that acted like a slot WR. Tamme assumed the role of Dallas Clark in 2010 leading to an absurd # of catches (mostly short catches, many from the stand-up slot position). I'm not familiar if Denver is trying to do that, but from pre-season game 1 and looking at John Fox's results, the TE will be a more tradition role in a blocking stance. Only 7 TEs caught 70 passes last year and 4 the year before, so that is a big reach to expect from Tamme.

 

Add to that the fact that the TE will need to stay in and block quite a bit to keep Manning upright, and I don't see 110/1200/10 from Denver TEs. Far from it. If they employ a two TE set with Tamme/Dressen, expect 1 to stay in and block every play.

 

----

I know you said conservative, but Tamme put up 67/631/4 in 10 games with Manning back in 2010. You project him for basically half of that? Tamme will likely put up 70/800/5. Stokely probably won't catch 40/400, a lot of that will go to Andre Caldwell. And you're also forgetting Joel Dreesen, who should catch 40/400/5 - great red zone threat.

[sirensong 111]

Who is in the game in single wr sets near the goal line.

 

Bronco homers?

 

I want that guy first. Don't care who it is between Decker and Thomas.

 

that's a damn good question.

[kmbryant09 1]

Indy's offense had a TE position that acted like a slot WR. Tamme assumed the role of Dallas Clark in 2010 leading to an absurd # of catches (mostly short catches, many from the stand-up slot position). I'm not familiar if Denver is trying to do that, but from pre-season game 1 and looking at John Fox's results, the TE will be a more tradition role in a blocking stance. Only 7 TEs caught 70 passes last year and 4 the year before, so that is a big reach to expect from Tamme.

 

Add to that the fact that the TE will need to stay in and block quite a bit to keep Manning upright, and I don't see 110/1200/10 from Denver TEs. Far from it. If they employ a two TE set with Tamme/Dressen, expect 1 to stay in and block every play.

 

----

I know you said conservative, but Tamme put up 67/631/4 in 10 games with Manning back in 2010. You project him for basically half of that? Tamme will likely put up 70/800/5. Stokely probably won't catch 40/400, a lot of that will go to Andre Caldwell. And you're also forgetting Joel Dreesen, who should catch 40/400/5 - great red zone threat.

Tamme put up 67/631 in 10 games with Manning in 2010. Projecting him for 70/800/5 is a stretch?

 

A few points: This offense will look a lot like Peyton Manning's offense in Indy, with some influence from Mike McCoy's system (whatever that traditionally is). John Fox WILL NOT have his hand prints on this offense. In camp so far, Tamme has been the 2nd most targeted Bronco (behind Decker), and Dreesen has been a major target, especially in the red zone. The Broncos aren't going to march a TE on the field simply to block for Peyton Manning.

 

And you basically pointed out a trend at the TE position that counters your point. The TE position is being revolutionized right now. Are Tamme & Dreesen the players that are revolutionizing the position? No, but teams are figuring out what an advantage it can be to have 2 well-rounded TE's on the field. The NFL is more of a passing league than ever before. 5 years ago, 70/800/5 was a fantastic year for a TE. But in 2012, I expect nearly a dozen TE's to flirt with those kind of numbers. And food for thought:

-7 TE's caught 70+ passes in 2011.

-14 TE's had 749+ receiving yards in 2011.

-19 TE's had 5+ Touchdowns in 2011.

 

Projecting the #1 TE in a what-should-be a top10 offense for 70/800/5 is hardly bold. Especially when you consider that TE is one of the favorite targets of his QB, and he put up 67/631/4 in a similar situation in 2010 - in 10 games!

[DrMantisToboggan 5]

Stokely, Collie, Blair White, Dallas Clark. What do these receivers have in common? Me thinks Decker and Tamme will be his go to guys.

[southcarolina 166]

Stokely, Collie, Blair White, Dallas Clark. What do these receivers have in common? Me thinks Decker and Tamme will be his go to guys.

 

 

They all benefitted from Marvin Harrison and/or Reggie Wayne being double covered, or at least the focus of the opposing defense?

[12th Place 2]

Ahhhh someone finally went there. Peyton loves hisself some gringos!

[Cuse9 129]

Are you just trying to fock with BLS or something? WR is incredibly deep this year. It's an indisputable fact. It's like saying the sky is blue.

Deep as in there are 64 starting wide receivers....yes. Deep as in quality studs that you can depend on week in and week out, not very deep at all. Obviously once the season starts we'll have a better idea on who is dependable, but as of now it's a guessing game for alot of them. I think there are more with question marks around them than there is that are solid.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Decker, Thomas and Stokely all looked good last night.

 

I don't remember Tamme doing anything, but Dreesen helped cause an INT, pulling up on an overthrown ball because he thought he was going to get hit.

[AintNoStoppinMeNow 68]

Decker, Thomas and Stokely all looked good last night.

 

I don't remember Tamme doing anything, but Dreesen helped cause an INT, pulling up on an overthrown ball because he thought he was going to get hit.

 

 

Tamme dropped a TD.

 

I remember Dreesen well as an Owen Daniels owner. He's the ultimate TE TD vulture if there ever was one.

 

While I expect Tamme to have a good year, I don't think he has as good of a year as many expect because of the lack of TD's with McGahee, the three WR's and Dreesen.