Aaron Brooks

[Ilov80s 0]

I like Brooks a lot this year and hope to snag him late. Antsports has him as the 17th QB chosen in the 10th round. I think he can deliver top 5 numbers in 06. Excluding last season, which was a complete wreck for the Saints, Brooks average numbers as a starter are pretty good. He projects to: 25 TDs 15 ints 3690 yards. Add in 289 yards rushing 2 rushing TDs.

 

Now if you consider that Randy Moss and Jerry Porter are a major upgrade from Joe Horn and Donte Stallowrth, that should improve Brooks even more. Based on Matt Waldman's "Don't Take Old Pepper" article from The Gut Check volume 39, Randy Moss is worth 0.9 TDs and 86 yards per game to an NFL QB. If we consider those numbers too liberal and cut them in half, we might have a fairly accurate portrayal of Aaron Brook's projected 2006: 4378 yards and 32 TDs.

 

Is Moss still an elite receiver? Can he stay healthy? Keep in mind the guy has played in 125 of 128 possible games in his career. He has 1000 yards in 7 of 8 seasons. Double digit TDs in 6 of 8. He has scored 13 or more in 4 of 8 seasons.

 

Also, I feel the one skill Kerry Collins lacked was the play-action roll-out. That was Culpepper-Moss's bread and butter. The large, athletic Aaron Brooks has a power arm and will run the bootleg well. That bolds well for Moss and Brooks. Jordan is respectable running back to establish play-action off of. Art Shell should bolster the line. Plus, Lamont Jordan proved to be a good option as a receiver out of the backfield for Brooks to dump off to. Jordan caught 70 passes in 2005. Brooks likes to go to the RB as he hit Deuce on average 50 times per season.

 

 

Brooks is not a good NFL QB. We all know that. He is going to make bad decisions and force balls. But he will put up good numbers in 06. If you can get him in round 8 or 9, then you have a major steal. His average is a respectable 3690 and 25 plus above average rushing numbers. His ceiling is an eye-popping, Daunte Culpepperesque 4378 and 32 TDs...plus above average rushing numbers.

[xenophobe 1]

You are right, he is not a very good NFL QB. But he does have a big arm, so he will be able to take advantage of the weapons he has. And he also has better mobility than Collins, which is part of the reason Collins wasn't a better fantasy prospect last year. I would not call Brooks a sleeper, because he will be on the radar screen in any competative league, but he should be a solid fantasy starter. What I would caution, however, is that he will likely have less value than his totals might suggest because I don't expect a lot of consistency out of him. He's likely to have some huge weeks for you, but also disappear at times.

[gatorbait7391 0]

No waaaay. Raiders have a crappy Defense, their a run first team, and Brooks has always sucked.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

Why not. He has plenty of targets, and a new coach who will run Davis' pass first offense. Brooks was not signed by the Raiders to hand off.

[wild_and_crazy_guy 5]

I really think Brooks will be a great sleeper for 2006. First, we still haven't seen Randy Moss play healthy in Oakland. Moss is a great WR, with or without Culpepper. Randy Moss was hurt most of 2005, and that also hurt Collins value. Meanwhile, in New Orleans, Brooks was playing without Horn or Duece, not to mention all of the distractions the Saints had dealing with the flooding. The last time Brooks had a good RB and WR, he was an excellent fantasy QB. Why would he not succeed with a healthy Randy Moss and L.Jordan?

[Ilov80s 0]

No waaaay. Raiders have a crappy Defense, their a run first team, and Brooks has always sucked.

 

Exactly, they have a crappy defense, which means lots of passing attempts for Brooks. I hope they stay a run first team, because that opens up the play action bootleg. That play is ideal for both Moss and Brooks. Brooks can buy time like Pepper could and make plays down field with a bigtime arm. I like what Oakland did signing Brooks. They got the closest possible thing to Daunte Culpepper.

[Wildman 0]

Aaron Brooks is always an underrated fantasy QB. He's the kind of player that's usually available after round 7 in a 12-team draft, but plays like a starter:

 

Last Name First Name G FPG Crank Sub Par Elite #1 QB

Culpepper Daunte 57 25.05 80.36 3.51% 59.65% 80.70%

Manning Peyton 64 22.73 66.96 7.81% 42.19% 76.56%

Bulger Marc 36 21.47 61.85 8.33% 38.89% 75.00%

McNabb Donovan 56 21.83 59.78 12.50% 42.86% 66.07%

McNair Steve 53 19.90 53.06 13.21% 32.08% 67.92%

Brooks Aaron 64 20.00 50.79 7.81% 29.69% 62.50%

Gannon Rich 42 19.93 50.38 19.05% 35.71% 59.52%

Garcia Jeff 56 19.67 49.44 21.43% 35.71% 58.93%

Green Trent 64 19.60 48.59 20.31% 34.38% 57.81%

Favre Brett 64 19.68 48.30 14.06% 25.00% 60.94%

 

These are the top 10 QBs from 2001-2004 in terms of consistency. I'm discounting 2005 for Brooks because he was missing Joe Horn and he didn't play out the full year. Brooks has very few games with totals equivalent to a non-starter (sub par). I'd be happy to get Brooks in the mid-to-late rounds because he should be playing witn a much-improved offensive line. I have a tough time believing Art Shell, Jackie Slater, and Irv Eatman won't imrpove that offensive line IMMEDIATELY...

 

Brooks will still make some boneheaded decisions, but he has good enough skill players in Oakland to put up the points.

[sharkie22 0]

You are right, he is not a very good NFL QB. But he does have a big arm, so he will be able to take advantage of the weapons he has. And he also has better mobility than Collins, which is part of the reason Collins wasn't a better fantasy prospect last year. I would not call Brooks a sleeper, because he will be on the radar screen in any competative league, but he should be a solid fantasy starter. What I would caution, however, is that he will likely have less value than his totals might suggest because I don't expect a lot of consistency out of him. He's likely to have some huge weeks for you, but also disappear at times.

 

 

This is absolutely correct.

 

Brooks is a little too inconsistent to be drafted as a #1 QB. His value most likely will come as a #2 which is where he should be drafted. I'd consider Brooks as early as the 8th round only if my first QB (usually taken in the 7th) has enough concerns of his own to cause me to insure the position. An example would be having Bledsoe or Warner.

[SmartassBoiler 0]

This is absolutely correct.

 

Brooks is a little too inconsistent to be drafted as a #1 QB. His value most likely will come as a #2 which is where he should be drafted. I'd consider Brooks as early as the 8th round only if my first QB (usually taken in the 7th) has enough concerns of his own to cause me to insure the position. An example would be having Bledsoe or Warner.

 

Add me to the list of people who agree with this sentiment. He played for a team in New Orleans who had good offensive weapons around him as well, plus a team with a mediocre defense, and he only did so much fantasy-wise. I don't see him exploding as a fantasy star in Oakland...he has too long of a track record of mediocre play to suggest some big change now that he's in Oakland. Add the risk that the Raiders have a QB of the future on their roster who got a big vote of confidence with Oakland passing on both Leinart and Cutler in the draft, and you might also have to dodge a quick hook should he string together a couple bad performances.

[Kilroy 0]

In 4 of his last 5 seasons Brooks has thrown for over 3500 yards (twice over 3800), 24 or more TDs three times and hasn't missed any games due to injury. The one year he didn't match those numbers was last year - The train wreck that was the entire Saints season (in large part due to Hurrican Katrina).

 

Now he finds himself in Oakland playing with perhaps the most gifted receiver in the game. In New Orleans Brooks had Joe Horn and Donte' Stallworth (sometimes) to throw the ball to. Now he finds himself tossing balls to Randy Moss and Jerry Porter along with a talented group of receivers in the #3 and #4 slots.

 

His athletic ability alone will help him compensate for some of the miscues that will come about on offense. Playing in a new system with a new HC that hasn't run a team in years can have that effect. Normally, this would throw up a red flag, but in this instance I don't believe it's enough to scare you completely away from Brooks.

 

While with the Saints, Brooks found himself playing from behind many times which helped him rack up his passing numbers. In Oakland, I think you'll find Brooks in the same situation fairly often. While with the Saints, Brooks also found himself playing in an offense that never really established itself. Part of this was due to injuries and part of this was due to Jim Haslett failing to establish one properly.

 

I don't neccessarily know what to expect from Art Shell this year, but I'm pretty sure Oakland's defense will be weak again. I also feel pretty confident that with the players he has on offense he will be able to establish a more productive offense than the one the Saints ran with Brooks in New Orleans.

 

A healthy Randy Moss would mean Brooks could find himself throwing for 3800-4200 yards while tossing anywhere from 25-32 TDs. This may not seem to off from his production in past years, but with Moss around, Brooks should provide more consistant outings from week to week rather than blowing up 5-7 Sundays throughout the year while stinking it up the rest of the weeks.

 

Considering where he is likely to go in your redraft leagues, Brooks should provide great value.

[ellisonb11 0]

Why not. He has plenty of targets, and a new coach who will run Davis' pass first offense. Brooks was not signed by the Raiders to hand off.

 

well they do have a bad defense, which will be making the raiders pass more. but art shell likes to pound the football down the field. i dont see brooks being a surprise QB. its possible, but ive almost lost faith in brooks. maybe a decent number 2 at best.

[Let Da Big Dog Eat 37]

Add me to the list of those who like Brooks this year. Before last year, the #'s were respectable. I think he's been in a better O than ever before. And let's face it, the only guy he ever had to throw to in NO was Horn. If he falls to RD 8, he's mine. And if he does very well, he could be great trade bait for someone who's QB goes down. After, I draft my starters, the biggest thing I look for is upside for either my injuries or trade bait. Brooks fits the bill perfectly.

[Raider 84 29]

Look for a MVP season from Brooks. Raiders !!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Baby Jesus 0]

Pretty good thread.

 

I've had Brooks as a late round QB (fortunately not last year). One post questioned whether or not Moss is a premier receiver any more. He certainly is. I don't know any corner that can cover him one on one. Porter is an excellent complement.

 

I know tj has pointed out Jordan's capacity for dropping the ball, but you can't question his # of catches.

 

Despite all the hype in this thread, I don't expect much more from the O-line this year. Talent may be better, coaching may be better, but if the effort isn't there not much else matters, IMO.

 

Same thing goes for the defense. I don't see how anyone who has watched this crap team over the past two years can project the defense or O-line to be signifigantly better.

 

Which finally brings me to Brooks. The Raiders are going to be behind this year. A lot. Which may lead to more passing attempts - but not better passing stats, historically.

 

Instead of looking at Brooks as a #1 or #2 QB, I'd be more interested in going into the season platooning Brooks. I haven't started studying schedules yet, but pencil Brooks in for the KC games and the rest of the crap defenses and find another middle of the road guy who pairs well with him.

[The Moz 69]

Wasn't brooks a top 10 FF QB like 3 straight years ? Now he has better WR's than he had then ! Moss, Porter , Curry ???

 

I look for Brooks to get 3,800 - 4,100 yards 28 - 35 TD's and 25 - 30 INTS if your league doesn't take minus pts for INT - brooks would be a great QB that could had later in drafts.

[Ilov80s 0]

Under The Radar ; Aaron Brooks, QB, OAK

 

Looks like they are right me. 25-32 TDs

[HawgWild 0]

I've had Brooks in the past and he was average at best... I would NEVER take him as my QB1 but I feel like he may put up decent stats with Moss and Porter this year so I would take him as my QB2 late and feel pretty good about it...

[t.j 35]

Plus, Lamont Jordan proved to be a good option as a receiver out of the backfield for Brooks to dump off to. Jordan caught 70 passes in 2005. Brooks likes to go to the RB as he hit Deuce on average 50 times per season.

 

Jordan is not a good option as a receiver. He led the NFL with 22 drops, most of which were easy balls. And his average per catch was not very good, either.

[Ilov80s 0]

Jordan is not a good option as a receiver. He led the NFL with 22 drops, most of which were easy balls. And his average per catch was not very good, either.

 

The 10 players with the most dropped passes in 2005 were:

Lamont Jordan

Plaxico Burress

Mushin Muhammad

Donte Stallworth

Eddie Kennison

Antonio Gates

Chad Johnson

Chris Chambers

Torry Holt

Joey Galloway

 

http://sports.myway.com/nfl/stats/passesdropped.html

 

AFC Leaders for % Passes Caught/Passes Thrown

Lamont Jordan was 12th best inbetween Reggie Wayne and TJ Housh

http://sports.myway.com/nfl/stats/league/p...htbytarget.html

 

Lamont Jordan averaged 8.0 yards per reception. Edge averaged 7.7 LT averaged 7.3. Steven Jackson 7.4 and Julius Jones 6.2

 

Jordan is a bit clumsy catching the ball and certainly won't be mistaken for Marshall Faulk, but he is a good reliable weapon in the passing game.

[football_scooter 0]

He's not a "sleeper" because he plays on the Raiders, and is throwing to Moss & Porter, neither of whom are sleepers. Anything that talks about either WRs chances for success will be pointing to the signal caller, so Brooks will actually be a bit overhyped, IMO.

 

However, I do think he is a solid value pick for where he'll go, and I wouldn't hesitate spending an 8th-10th round pick on him as a QB2 (immediately after taking a QB1 in the 7th-8th)

 

The 10 players with the most dropped passes in 2005 were:

Lamont Jordan

Plaxico Burress

Mushin Muhammad

Donte Stallworth

Eddie Kennison

Antonio Gates

Chad Johnson

Chris Chambers

Torry Holt

Joey Galloway

 

http://sports.myway.com/nfl/stats/passesdropped.html

 

AFC Leaders for % Passes Caught/Passes Thrown

Lamont Jordan was 12th best inbetween Reggie Wayne and TJ Housh

http://sports.myway.com/nfl/stats/league/p...htbytarget.html

 

Lamont Jordan averaged 8.0 yards per reception. Edge averaged 7.7 LT averaged 7.3. Steven Jackson 7.4 and Julius Jones 6.2

 

Jordan is a bit clumsy catching the ball and certainly won't be mistaken for Marshall Faulk, but he is a good reliable weapon in the passing game.

 

Good post - I keep hearing about how many drops he had - and watching games with Raiders fans, I can attest that there were a number of them. However it didn't stop them from continuing to target him, which is the relevant bit.

 

Like looking at your list, I don't see anyone with great concern over Gates, CJohnson, Chambers or Holt over thier drops....Jordan is a fine RB and I'd be thrilled if he was there at say, 1.12 for me to pair him up with another solid, if unspectacular back like RBrown or RuJo/Caddy/etc

[Ilov80s 0]

He's not a "sleeper" because he plays on the Raiders, and is throwing to Moss & Porter, neither of whom are sleepers. Anything that talks about either WRs chances for success will be pointing to the signal caller, so Brooks will actually be a bit overhyped, IMO.

 

However, I do think he is a solid value pick for where he'll go, and I wouldn't hesitate spending an 8th-10th round pick on him as a QB2 (immediately after taking a QB1 in the 7th-8th)

Good post - I keep hearing about how many drops he had - and watching games with Raiders fans, I can attest that there were a number of them. However it didn't stop them from continuing to target him, which is the relevant bit.

 

Like looking at your list, I don't see anyone with great concern over Gates, CJohnson, Chambers or Holt over thier drops....Jordan is a fine RB and I'd be thrilled if he was there at say, 1.12 for me to pair him up with another solid, if unspectacular back like RBrown or RuJo/Caddy/etc

 

True, sleeper might not be the best word. Perhaps heavily undervalued? It is so early, perhaps he will heat up as August draws near. Right now he is the most undervalued played IMO. He fits Moss' game better then Collins , is more reliable then Collins and has had a better fantasy career then Collins. According to AntSports Brooks is going in the 10th round as the 18th QB selected. Last year Collins was going in the 3rd-6th rounds as the 4th-8th QB selected. I don't understand the logic, but I hope it holds.

[football_scooter 0]

Last year Collins was going in the 3rd-6th rounds as the 4th-8th QB selected. I don't understand the logic, but I hope it holds.

 

They didn't anticipate the O-Line being so bad, and Collins statuesque nature hurting him so much.

 

I did, but I'm not one to toot my own horn about predictions...

 

Brooks escapability will allow him to do a lot more with that Oakland offense. A lot of those balls he used to toss up for grabs to Horn will now be caught by an even better jump ball receiver. I think moss sniffs his 17 TDs again this year, though I'm not sold on the yardage just yet.

[Ilov80s 0]

They didn't anticipate the O-Line being so bad, and Collins statuesque nature hurting him so much.

 

I did, but I'm not one to toot my own horn about predictions...

 

Brooks escapability will allow him to do a lot more with that Oakland offense. A lot of those balls he used to toss up for grabs to Horn will now be caught by an even better jump ball receiver. I think moss sniffs his 17 TDs again this year, though I'm not sold on the yardage just yet.

 

Even more reason to like Brooks, the problems of poor o-line and poor mobility have been addressed. Brooks is more mobile and the coaching staff is heavy on o-line experience.

 

I am right with you on Moss, he will get his 15 TDs and 1300+ yards.