Willie Parker

[ArtRooneyskid 0]

I'm a loyal steeler fan, but i don't know if he's a solid starter. I'm even considering drafting duce staley at the bottom of my ff drafts because i think he might take the starting role. What do y'all think?

[kiwimango 0]

As a fellow Steeler fan I think that he can. He is going to need to average 75 yards a game on a run heavy offense. I dont really think that is too much to ask. And if Santonio Holmes can truly stretch the Defenses, so there wont be 8 or 9 in the box, he may even do better. The main issue with Fast Willie will be how many TDs will he get? He still wont be our goal line guy, that will be, I think Haynes, before Staley.

 

The one thing that concerns me, is that we play alot of run stuffing defenses this year. Balt (2), SD, Den, Carolina, KC (Believe it or not #7 last year), Miami & Jax. He will run vs 8 decent to strong defenses and that should also be part of your thought process. Good Luck!

[murf74 461]

Rember that Parker got that 1200 yards and still missed 1-1/2 games w/ an ankle injury.

 

But division games vs. Cincy and Cleveland will not be as easy running as last season.

 

If he is healthy, 1200 yards is definitely likely, but he won't get the TDs this year either. Haynes and Staley will get those.

[adam smitty 0]

Parker can do it if he gets the carries, and it seems like they arent too sure he can run the load all season again. If you draft him, make sure to get all of his handcuffs.

[ArtRooneyskid 0]

I know he's not getting the TD's. I just wonder how committed the steelers are to him as their starter. Last year they started the year with Staley as their man but he got hurt and Willie got his chance. Duce proceeded to ride the pine the rest of the year to let Bettis get the glory. Could Duce Staley steal the starting role from Parker this year? Will they split carries evenly?

 

If Willie stays healthy and is given the chance yes i too believe he'll run for 1200 at least, but will he?

[gatorbait7391 0]

I think he can get 1200 but i dont no about tds......

[mgs316 14]

I think he can get Robert Smith type numbers, 1200ish, around 6 TD's. But he'll be the 69 yards one week, 139 next with a 60 yard td run. Can you live with that is the question.

[SoloMatisse 0]

its gonna be a bit tougher this year....last year he was a novelty noone knew about or gameplanned for. This year he'll have a bullseye on his chest, teams will be studying film, and the champs will get a tougher schedule and everone's A game. 1200 this year isnt likely.

[Gepetto 1,368]

I'm a loyal steeler fan, but i don't know if he's a solid starter. I'm even considering drafting duce staley at the bottom of my ff drafts because i think he might take the starting role. What do y'all think?

 

Not sure about Fast Willie, but I gotta say your team in your sig is sweet!

 

Tiki, Caddy, Randy Moss, Roy Williams, Todd Heap, and Matt Jones --- great players to have!

[murf74 461]

its gonna be a bit tougher this year....last year he was a novelty noone knew about or gameplanned for. This year he'll have a bullseye on his chest, teams will be studying film, and the champs will get a tougher schedule and everone's A game. 1200 this year isnt likely.

 

Are you serious? You really think they didn't gameplan for Willie Parker last year? Maybe game 1 vs. Tenn. you could use that as an excuse, even after week #2. But if a defensive coordinator did not study film after the first couple weeks and get a game plan on Parker, they should all be fired. And by the way, they did study film on the starting RB of the Pittsburgh Steelers, this isn't 10 year old football leagues here.

 

Here is the deal, Steelers have a great offensive line and gameplans go out the door when you can't beat the guy in front of you to make a tackle. And Willie Parker is probably the fastest starting RB in the NFL. And you can't gameplan chasing a guy faster than you. Parker will go down on the first good hit or tackle attempt. But can you catch him to do it and can you get the Steeler offensive line to screw up and miss a block?

 

But again, do you really think no teams watched film on Willie Parker or gameplaned for him? You mean to tell me you play the Steelers and don't gameplan for their starting RB? What do they gameplan for if not for the teams strongest trait?

 

You could be right, he may not get 1200 yards, but to think Parker only got it last year cause teams didn't watch film on him? Are you kidding me? Boy, I wonder if teams even knew what number Parker wore last season?

[pollardposse 0]

I agree..... Parker definitely had people planning for him.

The interesting thing to me is this; At the end of last season, and in the playoffs, Big Ben began throwing those short screen passes to Parker. Parker was making some darn good plays once he had the ball in his hands too.

If that continues into this season, he could be an 1,800 total yard guy with 8 + TD's. He is as much of a weapon on screens as he is running the ball. Speed kills and Parker has the speed. If he also has Ben's trust, he will be golden.

I have him in my dynasty league and think he will put up about 1,200 yards rushing, but at least 400 receiving. How many short screens will he turn into TD's? How many times will they throw to him inside the 10?

[Franknbeans 46]

As long as he learns how to read his blocks better and bulks up a bit, he'll easily surpass 1200 yards this season.

[wizbang 10]

I don't understand why Parker's carries would go DOWN after the Bettis retirement. If Duce were a better option then he wouldn't have been inactive most of last season in favor of Parker/Bettis. Here is the breakdown from last year:

 

Parker - 255 carries

Bettis - 110 carries (in 13 games)

Haynes - 74 carries

Duce - 38 carries

 

This year the Steelers will probably only carry three tailbacks (like most other teams). My guess is that they'll try to get Humes onto their practice squad. I think Haynes will play the exact same role. 70-90 carries, pretty much all on third down. Duce will probably get goalline touches and spell Parker but I don't think he'll get 148 carries (the total from Duce and Bettis last year). The only way I see that happening is if Parker really struggles. Excepting that, I think it's entirely reasonable to expect Parker to get an additional 3-5 carries per game. That puts him at right about 300 carries for the year (actually higher when you factor in the game and a half he sat out).

 

I weil be pretty surprised if Duce gets more carries per game than Bettis (who averaged just under 9).

 

Also, didn't the total number of carries go down from the previous few years?

[SoloMatisse 0]

Are you serious? You really think they didn't gameplan for Willie Parker last year? Maybe game 1 vs. Tenn. you could use that as an excuse, even after week #2. But if a defensive coordinator did not study film after the first couple weeks and get a game plan on Parker, they should all be fired. And by the way, they did study film on the starting RB of the Pittsburgh Steelers, this isn't 10 year old football leagues here.

 

Here is the deal, Steelers have a great offensive line and gameplans go out the door when you can't beat the guy in front of you to make a tackle. And Willie Parker is probably the fastest starting RB in the NFL. And you can't gameplan chasing a guy faster than you. Parker will go down on the first good hit or tackle attempt. But can you catch him to do it and can you get the Steeler offensive line to screw up and miss a block?

 

But again, do you really think no teams watched film on Willie Parker or gameplaned for him? You mean to tell me you play the Steelers and don't gameplan for their starting RB? What do they gameplan for if not for the teams strongest trait?

 

You could be right, he may not get 1200 yards, but to think Parker only got it last year cause teams didn't watch film on him? Are you kidding me? Boy, I wonder if teams even knew what number Parker wore last season?

 

 

Dead serious. How much film did the those teams have to study of Willie Parker? Seriously. He blew up weeks 1 and 2 against Houston and Tennesse. They were picking 1 and 3 in the draft. He scorched Cinci one week....who couldnt stop my grandma. He averaged less than 3.6yds a game in 10 of his games last year. He was inconsistent the entire season, lit up teams that were clearly overmatched and got some good coaching on the sidelines from Bettis, who's no longer there. It'll be different this year....believe what you want.

[murf74 461]

Dead serious. How much film did the those teams have to study of Willie Parker? Seriously. He blew up weeks 1 and 2 against Houston and Tennesse. They were picking 1 and 3 in the draft. He scorched Cinci one week....who couldnt stop my grandma. He averaged less than 3.6yds a game in 10 of his games last year. He was inconsistent the entire season, lit up teams that were clearly overmatched and got some good coaching on the sidelines from Bettis, who's no longer there. It'll be different this year....believe what you want.

 

 

I don't have a problem with predicting less than 1200 yards, but to say he only had 1200 yards this year was cause teams didn't have film available?

 

You only need one film to study a RB. It's not like he was doing things never seen before or running any different plays than anyone has seen before.

 

But, by the way if Tennessee was looking for tape of Parker before week #1 last year, there was 2004 preseason when he lead the Steelers in rushing, you have the season finale of 2004 where he tore up the Bills and of course you have preseason 2005 and . Tenn. watched all these games. And with each regular season game that passed another tape was available for the next opponent. Heck by the time they got to week #15, Cleveland had plenty of tape on him but Parker still broke about an 80 yard TD and Seattle had way more than enough tape and they still gave up a 75 yard run. He will do this if you give him a crack. He is just that fast.

 

You really don't believe defensive coordinators didn't study Willie Parker tape last year do you? One last chance to rethink yourself.

[SoloMatisse 0]

I don't have a problem with predicting less than 1200 yards, but to say he only had 1200 yards this year was cause teams didn't have film available?

 

You only need one film to study a RB. It's not like he was doing things never seen before or running any different plays than anyone has seen before.

 

But, by the way if Tennessee was looking for tape of Parker before week #1 last year, there was 2004 preseason when he lead the Steelers in rushing, you have the season finale of 2004 where he tore up the Bills and of course you have preseason 2005 and . Tenn. watched all these games. And with each regular season game that passed another tape was available for the next opponent. Heck by the time they got to week #15, Cleveland had plenty of tape on him but Parker still broke about an 80 yard TD and Seattle had way more than enough tape and they still gave up a 75 yard run. He will do this if you give him a crack. He is just that fast.

 

You really don't believe defensive coordinators didn't study Willie Parker tape last year do you? One last chance to rethink yourself.

 

 

Think about what you just said in that statement and ask yourself.....objectively....if that makes any sense at all. Like I said....believe what you want.

[murf74 461]

Think about what you just said in that statement and ask yourself.....objectively....if that makes any sense at all. Like I said....believe what you want.

 

I have no idea what you are talking about. You tell me there is no film to watch. I tell you all you need is ONE. Then I go on to tell you

But, by the way if Tennessee was looking for tape of Parker before week #1 last year, there was 2004 preseason when he lead the Steelers in rushing, you have the season finale of 2004 where he tore up the Bills and of course you have preseason 2005 and . Tenn. watched all these games. And with each regular season game that passed another tape was available for the next opponent. Heck by the time they got to week #15, Cleveland had plenty of tape on him but Parker still broke about an 80 yard TD and Seattle had way more than enough tape and they still gave up a 75 yard run. He will do this if you give him a crack. He is just that fast.

so what exactly don't you understand? There was film for every single one of Parker's regular season games.

 

So what the heck are you talking about?

 

Are you still stating that NFL defensive coordinators didn't watch film on Willie Parker in 2005??? Man that's just brilliant What do you think they did to gameplan for the Steeler offense? If you are saying they didn't have any film on Parker, then they didn't have any film on the entire team. To sum it up for your frame of mind. No defensive coordinators watched any tape of the Pittsburgh Steelers offense last year. And I guess this would apply to Ronnie Brown and Caddy and any other rookie in the league. They just don't game plan for rookies. I am literally in tears over your logic.

[wizbang 10]

Solo - you really need to concede the film argument. Not doing so undermines every subsequent point you try to make.

 

Parker was definitely inconsistent last year but his average was pretty good. Because of his long runs, Parker was able to eek out a 4.7 YPC on 255 carries (and you can't discount those - one such run sealed the superbowl). That is pretty darn good. In fact, of the 15 RBs with more carries only Warrick Dunn, Larry Johnson, Tiki Barber and Shaun Alexander averaged more YPC. The rest of the Pitt RBs? Bettis - 3.3 YPC. Haynes - 3.7 YPC. Staley - 3.9 YPC.

 

In 2004 Bettis averaged 3.8 and Staley 4.3. The year before Zereoue and Bettis both averaged 3.3 YPC.

 

People like Bettis but the truth is that he hasn't averaged over 4.0 YPC since 2001 and has only done so once in the last 8 season. Parker is 1 for 1.

 

Also, your point about having a few good games versus many bad ones is true but limited in scope. Parker gained the 12th most yards in the league last year with 5 100 yard games. These games are more rare that most would believe. Only the truly elite (ie top 5-7 RBs in the NFL) typically get more than 5 or 6 100 yard games. Look up the list at #11 - Reuben Droughns. He had 3 100 yard games (against Det, Ten and Mia - hardly elite competition). Beyond that are a bunch of 20 for 55, 19 for 40 and 10 for 36 type games. Go one more player up the list to Willis McGahee at #10. He had 5 100 yard games with a number of bad outings (8 for 3, 27 for 81, 21 for 53).

 

I'm not going to say that Parker is as good as McGahee because he had a higher YPC and just as many 100 yard games but I think your criticism of him is unfair. From Cowher's perspective he had the 12th overall RB in terms of yardage who put up the 5th best YPC for any RB in the NFL with at least 200 carries. He also only had 4 fumbles of which they lost a grand total of zero. Now, that doesn't necessarily translate to fantasy greatness of course but objectively you have to admit that Parker had a good season when compared to most NFL running backs AND when compared to previous seasons in Pittsburgh.

 

Lastly, by running Parker 255 times in the regular season and 57 more in the playoffs Pittsburgh went 11-5 and won the Superbowl. Many other factors but that is one that cannot be denied.

 

I just don't see why Cowher would mess with that production unless something drastic happens. Their offseason moves or lack thereof support that claim.

[Parja 0]

People like Bettis but the truth is that he hasn't averaged over 4.0 YPC since 2001 and has only done so once in the last 8 season.

 

All those goalline TD blasts don't do much to help your YPC.

 

I think Willie should do AT LEAST as well as he did last year. Staley+Haynes < Bettis.

[wizbang 10]

All those goalline TD blasts don't do much to help your YPC.

 

I think Willie should do AT LEAST as well as he did last year. Staley+Haynes < Bettis.

 

Nice point and I agree with your last statement. That is what makes guys like LJ and Alexander so great. They get all of the goalline carries and still post elite YPCs (as Bettis did earlier in his career). If Parker were to get goalline carries it would hurt his YPC. Mostly, I'm just trying to show that once you get outside the top 7 or so RBs in the league, Parker had a comparable season to the rest. Not in Fantasy (low TDs and average number of carries hurt) but in actual football he was in the top half of NFL RBs.

[Texansfan 0]

Keep in mind that Willie was just kind of "thrown" into the starters role last year. Remember mid-season where he was "wearing down" and "losing weight". Now he has the whole offseason to condition his body for a full NFL schedule, plus he knows what to expect as a full time starter.

 

Combine that with Bettis leaving and I think this guy is primed for a HUGE year. Sure Staley & Haynes will steal some carries, primarily in 3rd and short and maybe GL, but I still see him as a Tiki Barber type back. I'm sure this offseason Pittsburgh is working on incorporating more plays for Willie since he is a different type runner than their typical "power" runner. And it's obvious that Cowher loves his versatility since they didn't go after a RB high in the draft.

 

I think 1400 rush / 400 rec / 8-10 total TDs is within reach.

[mggoilers 0]

I don't see 1200 yards in his future for one reason.

 

HIS FUMBLING PROBLEM

 

I don't think Cowher can be patient all season long.

Parker is very loose with the ball, but not as bad as Deshaun Foster

[wizbang 10]

Parker had 4 fumbles and lost none all last year. He had one in the playoffs which was also recovered by Pittsburgh. For his career, Parker has never turned the ball over.

 

I suspect your post was TIC?

[murf74 461]

Let's not forget he only played in 14.5 games to get that 1200 yard production. His injury was a low ankle sprain. And as we see from Wizbang's great analysis, Parker really isn't as inconsistent as we all think when you compare him to other non-elite RBs.

 

He was as raw as you can get last year with barely even any college experience. So it was all instinct and speed that got him those yards. Once he slows down and reads the holes better, his YPC will go up. His TDs will always be limited to outside the 5 yard line, but again we are not trying to make a case that Parker is a #1 fantasy RB, which he will never be cause he can't get those tough yards at the goalline.

 

And can we stop with the fumbling problem? A guy who has never turned the ball over doesn't have a fumbling problem.

[SoloMatisse 0]

Solo - you really need to concede the film argument. Not doing so undermines every subsequent point you try to make.

 

Parker was definitely inconsistent last year but his average was pretty good. Because of his long runs, Parker was able to eek out a 4.7 YPC on 255 carries (and you can't discount those - one such run sealed the superbowl). That is pretty darn good. In fact, of the 15 RBs with more carries only Warrick Dunn, Larry Johnson, Tiki Barber and Shaun Alexander averaged more YPC. The rest of the Pitt RBs? Bettis - 3.3 YPC. Haynes - 3.7 YPC. Staley - 3.9 YPC.

 

In 2004 Bettis averaged 3.8 and Staley 4.3. The year before Zereoue and Bettis both averaged 3.3 YPC.

 

People like Bettis but the truth is that he hasn't averaged over 4.0 YPC since 2001 and has only done so once in the last 8 season. Parker is 1 for 1.

 

Also, your point about having a few good games versus many bad ones is true but limited in scope. Parker gained the 12th most yards in the league last year with 5 100 yard games. These games are more rare that most would believe. Only the truly elite (ie top 5-7 RBs in the NFL) typically get more than 5 or 6 100 yard games. Look up the list at #11 - Reuben Droughns. He had 3 100 yard games (against Det, Ten and Mia - hardly elite competition). Beyond that are a bunch of 20 for 55, 19 for 40 and 10 for 36 type games. Go one more player up the list to Willis McGahee at #10. He had 5 100 yard games with a number of bad outings (8 for 3, 27 for 81, 21 for 53).

 

I'm not going to say that Parker is as good as McGahee because he had a higher YPC and just as many 100 yard games but I think your criticism of him is unfair. From Cowher's perspective he had the 12th overall RB in terms of yardage who put up the 5th best YPC for any RB in the NFL with at least 200 carries. He also only had 4 fumbles of which they lost a grand total of zero. Now, that doesn't necessarily translate to fantasy greatness of course but objectively you have to admit that Parker had a good season when compared to most NFL running backs AND when compared to previous seasons in Pittsburgh.

 

Lastly, by running Parker 255 times in the regular season and 57 more in the playoffs Pittsburgh went 11-5 and won the Superbowl. Many other factors but that is one that cannot be denied.

 

I just don't see why Cowher would mess with that production unless something drastic happens. Their offseason moves or lack thereof support that claim.

 

 

Like I said....ONE game is enough film?? Please dont mention my name or discuss my take, Slick if Im not talking to you. go on about your business. and AGAIN, believe what you will. I could care less.

[Highway Robbery 0]

I see FWP getting 1400 Rushing yards (a few more via the extra 1.5 games he will play and extra carries per game) and then a bunch more receiving yards.

 

Any TDs he gets is a bonus. And he will get some.

[murf74 461]

Like I said....ONE game is enough film?? Please dont mention my name or discuss my take, Slick if Im not talking to you. go on about your business. and AGAIN, believe what you will. I could care less.

 

You still aren't making any sense. Sorry, but you aren't. But I am moving on, I think you have conceeded in your own special way.

[birdbrain3X 0]

If he's at 1199 I'm sure Bill Leavy and his heavies will give him a push across the line.

[wizbang 10]

Like I said....ONE game is enough film?? Please dont mention my name or discuss my take, Slick if Im not talking to you. go on about your business. and AGAIN, believe what you will. I could care less.

 

Well now that you responded to me, Slick, by your rules I'm now allowed to reply in kind right? You could care less? Really? How much less could you care, slick? A lot less? A little less? Just wondering. Seriously, why not discuss the content of my post rather than stick to your inane point? It was one game (+ 2 preseasons) in week 1. OK, to make you feel better in week one teams had barely more scouting on him than they did Samkon Gado. Feel better? Now if you want to discuss a legitimate point (as many have made to the detriment of FWP in FFL) please procede.

[Highway Robbery 0]

I love FWP and he is the best story of 2005, Gado sucks.